From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
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Dave Wilson
THIBODEAUX, La. — In the middle of a sweltering August day in south Louisiana, Archibald “Arch” Manning, son of Cooper, grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli, roams the fields of his ancestral homeland, the Manning Passing Academy, where quarterbacks are grown.
This is Year 29 of the MPA, and Arch’s dad and uncles have been present for every one, beginning when Cooper had just graduated from Ole Miss, Peyton was a freshman at Tennessee and Eli was a camper as a sophomore in high school.
Archie, the patriarch of football’s first family, surveys 48 of the best college quarterbacks in America — this year’s counselors. There’s one who stands out: A moppy-haired 6-4, 200-pound Texas Longhorns quarterback, who just happens to be his grandson.
“Arch has come full circle,” he said.
Archie, 76, has nine grandchildren. Eli’s four kids in New York. Peyton’s twins in Denver. But Cooper’s three –May, who just graduated from Virginia, Arch, a junior at Texas, and Heid, a sophomore at Texas — all grew up in New Orleans and were constants in his life.
Arch, his namesake, is the one who has gone into the family business and today is a big day. Last year, Arch didn’t compete in the skills competition or serve in any official capacity, wanting Quinn Ewers to represent Texas at the camp.
Now, Arch is the starter at Texas. But more importantly on this day, he’s a Manning Passing Academy counselor. At the sight, Archie’s memories start playing out in his eyes; he sees 4-year-old Arch, roaming the fields at Nicholls State, wearing an MPA T-shirt.
“He wore glasses when he was a little boy,” Archie said. “I can remember how excited he was when he first got to be a camper — eighth grade — a real camper, and stay in the dorm. I used to sneak off and watch his 7-on-7 games. I remember one year his coach was Trevor Lawrence. That was pretty cool. And now he’s a full counselor. Unbelievable.”
It’s the first step in a big year for perhaps the most famous quarterback in college football history.
“Just climbing the ladder,” Arch said.
Now, summer camp is over, Arch is on the top rung and the hot-take economy awaits his first start. He’ll lead No. 1 Texas into Columbus, Ohio, to take on No. 3 Ohio State on Saturday (noon ET, Fox), opening the season as ESPN BET’s leading Heisman candidate.
For two years, Arch has laid low, but that hasn’t stopped the hype. At Sugar Bowl media day in 2023, a throng of reporters surrounded him while the starter, Ewers, waited at a nearly empty podium. Whenever Arch entered games, Texas fans took to their feet. When he lost his student ID the first week on campus, it made the local news. When his picture went missing from the wall of a local burger joint, a citywide search ensued.
All of this happened despite the family’s best efforts, not because of it.
“He ain’t even pissed a drop yet,” Archie protested when I contacted him about this story.
There are inherent advantages to being a Manning. They seem to be imbued with a mix of self-effacing humor and a relentless pursuit of excellence. But Arch is the first Manning to emerge into the world that social media created. We didn’t even know which schools Peyton visited. We didn’t have pictures of Eli popping up on our phones every day.
While Arch’s road to becoming his own Manning started off in much the same way as his uncles, his experience since has been unlike anyone else’s.
I. The Manning whisperer
DAVID CUTCLIFFE SAW the future in 1969 at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama. Cutcliffe, then 15, was there to see No. 15 Alabama playing No. 20 Ole Miss in the first night game ever televised in color. Though Cutcliffe was there as an invited guest of the Crimson Tide, and would go on to graduate from Alabama, he instead came away with a new hero.
No player had ever thrown for 300 yards and rushed for 100 in a major college football game. But that night, in a duel with Alabama’s Scott Hunter, Archie completed 33 of 52 passes for 436 yards and two touchdowns and ran 15 times for 104 yards and three scores. Bear Bryant and the Tide prevailed 33-32 but Cutcliffe was smitten.
“He was the only thing I could watch as a young high school guy,” Cutcliffe said. “Man, I’m watching Archie Manning. I didn’t want to see anybody else after that game.”
He had no idea that he would end up in Archie’s living room in New Orleans nearly 25 years later, trying to sell him on sending his son to Tennessee, where Cutcliffe was the offensive coordinator for Philip Fulmer. Both men laugh remembering when Cutcliffe visited and regaled Peyton with some film, while Archie, who was sitting in, drifted off for a nap.
“I’m probably the only coach in history that’s ever bored Archie Manning enough to put him asleep,” Cutcliffe said. “He has never bored me. He’s one of my favorite human beings on the face of the Earth.”
Between 1994 and 1997, with Cutcliffe as his mentor, Peyton became Tennessee‘s all-time leading passer, throwing for 11,201 yards and 89 touchdowns. Then, as the head coach at Ole Miss, he coached Eli from 2000 to 2003, as the quarterback also set school records with 10,119 passing yards and 81 TDs. So naturally, Cutcliffe always planned on making a pitch for Arch, and he didn’t wait long. He had a courier bring an Ole Miss scholarship offer to Cooper in the hospital the day Arch was born in 2004.
Cutcliffe was out of coaching when Arch actually committed to Texas, but he got to coach him after all. He started working with Arch at 10 years old.
“He was a talented youngster, a middle schooler,” Cutcliffe said. “He’s always been strong. You could see the physical abilities. But what I liked about Arch is Arch liked working. He does not have to be forced into work.”
Cooper was an All-State, 6-4 wide receiver before spinal stenosis ended his career, and Cooper’s mom, Ellen, is in the athletics Hall of Fame at Sacred Heart in New Orleans, where she ran track. Arch certainly had the right parents to be a world-class athlete, but the Manning family knows well that speed can’t be handed over in a will.
“Peyton, he was really determined,” Archie said, laughing. “One day he just asked me, ‘Dad, why am I not fast?’ I didn’t have an answer for that. Eli followed in that same mold. But I can remember when Arch first started playing flag football, the other boys couldn’t pull his flag. They couldn’t get him.”
Cutcliffe, who now works as a special assistant to SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, visits Arch in Austin and sometimes sits in on quarterback meetings and watches practice, which the Texas coaches encourage. Now, he can’t wait to watch Arch scramble around, the same way he couldn’t wait to watch Archie play that night at Legion Field.
“I think it’s a thing of beauty,” Cutcliffe said. “The fact that his name is Arch — short for Archie — it’s only appropriate.”
II. The lightness of being a Manning
FOR 29 YEARS, the Manning Passing Academy, Archie’s baby, has trained quarterbacks across the country, including 25 of last year’s 32 NFL starters. Archie is uniquely aware of the family’s role in the football ecosystem and understands the pressure on QBs. But he can’t understand all the attention showered on Arch before he has started a season opener in college. Archie is no fan of the discourse.
“It’s just so unfair it just kills me,” Archie said. “Even my old friend Steve Spurrier, on a podcast, he blows up Arch.”
In June, Spurrier appeared on “Another Dooley Noted Podcast” and noted Texas was a trendy pick for the SEC championship. “They’ve got Arch Manning already winning the Heisman,” Spurrier said. “If he was this good, how come they let Quinn Ewers play all the time last year? And he was a seventh-round pick.”
So Archie tries to keep his steady and remain a grandfather, preferring to stay out of the spotlight, but so many people have his phone number that he still becomes the go-to guy for a quote about Arch. Archie texts all nine grandchildren, who call him Red for his hair that was once that color, every morning. It could be a Bible verse, a motivational message, a thought for the day. Archie talks football sparingly, instead keeping it simple with Arch: He reminds him to be a good teammate, or checks on how practice is going.
“I get a lot of texts from him,” Arch said with a smile. “He can’t hear well. So he texts.”
And he might stick to texting. Archie has been bewildered at times during Arch’s college tenure by the way his quotes turn into headlines, like when he told a Texas Monthly reporter he thought Arch would return for his senior year.
“Yeah, I don’t know where he got that from,” a bemused Arch told reporters in response, noting that Archie texted him to apologize. For Archie, it was a reminder of how far his voice can travel, and why he has to be careful.
He tells a story from a decade ago. Arch was making the transition from flag football to tackle in sixth grade. While Archie was driving Arch to a baseball tournament, the grandson asked for his grandfather’s wisdom for the first time.
“Red, I’m going to be playing real football this year for the first time, and I’ll be the quarterback,” Arch said. “You got any advice for me?”
Archie lit up.
You’ve got to know your play, Archie told him. Stand outside the huddle. When you walk in that huddle, nobody else talks. You call that play with authority and get ’em in and out of the huddle. That’s called “huddle presence,” and it’s among the most important things for a quarterback.
“Well, Red,” Arch replied. “We don’t ever huddle.”
Showed what he knew, Archie said. So he makes it clear he is just around to watch his grandson fulfill his own dreams.
“Arch and I have a really good grandson-grandfather relationship, but I haven’t been part of this football journey,” Archie said.
Arch would disagree, however. While he loves to study Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, Arch says his original inspiration was watching Archie play in the “Book of Manning.” He would go out into the yard and try to emulate Red’s moves. But he also noticed that Archie got hit hard a lot. And that’s the one piece of advice that Archie, who walks with a cane, wants Arch to really take to heart.
“He reminds me pretty much every time I talk to him,” Arch said, “to get down or get out of bounds.”
Every member of the family plays a different role. They humble each other frequently, as any “ManningCast” viewer can attest. Eli loves to remind everybody that Peyton set the NFL record for most interceptions by a rookie. But the family members also are each other’s biggest supporters. Cooper notes how ridiculous it was early in Peyton’s career that he was written off as someone who couldn’t win a championship.
Football is a team sport, and the Mannings are a pretty good team. Archie does the big-picture stuff. Eli and Cooper lived inside the pressure cooker after following their legendary father to Ole Miss; they know how to handle fame. Peyton is the football obsessive who drills down on the details. No matter the problem, Arch has somebody he can ask for guidance.
“I threw a pick in a two-minute drill in the summer, and I texted Peyton, ‘Hey, any advice on how to get better in two-minute?” Arch said. “And it was like a 30-minute voice memo.”
Eli said he keeps it much shorter.
“You can’t try to be someone else. I think Arch is very comfortable in his own skin,” Eli said. “The best piece of advice I’ve ever given Arch is just try to throw it to the guys wearing the same color jersey you’re wearing. If you do that, you’ve got a chance.”
Cooper is the comedian of the family, and Arch’s brother, Heid, got that gift as well. Every member of the family agrees that nobody is having more fun than Heid.
“We go to dinner during the week, kind of a break from football life, and he’s a funny guy, so it’s comedic relief,” Arch said. “I’m blessed to have him at the University of Texas.”
Arch, Cooper and Archie all starred in a recent Waymo commercial for self-driving Ubers. Archie had no idea what they were shooting, just that they were getting together to film something. Arch and Cooper, who was given creative control of the ad, got a kick out of surprising him with the newfangled robot car.
“Really? This is really what we’re doing over here in Austin today?” Archie asked. “I couldn’t believe when it stopped at a stop sign. Blew me away.”
Levity is a key component in the Mannings’ shared DNA. Last year, after Arch’s second start, against Mississippi State, he lamented that he had been tight in his first game against UL Monroe, saying he forgot to have fun.
He said that again Monday, speaking to reporters before he makes his first road start against the defending national champions.
“I’m excited,” Arch said. “I mean this is what I’ve been waiting for. I spent two years not playing, so I might as well go have some fun.”
III. The winding road to Texas
DURING HIS RECRUITMENT, Arch visited a 15-0 Georgia team four times. He did the same with an 11-2 Alabama team. Texas, meanwhile, went 5-7. But Arch liked Steve Sarkisian’s work with quarterbacks and wanted to be part of a resurgence at Texas, a place that had been mired in mediocrity for most of a decade.
“I think he takes a lot of pride in going to Texas, coming off a losing record and being a part of something that’s only getting better,” Cooper said. “That’s when I learned a lot about Arch, not just going and chasing who’s the No. 1 or No. 2 or No. 5 team in the country.”
The Mannings knew Texas. All three of Archie’s sons visited, but they didn’t all have fond memories. The Longhorns had been among Cooper’s first major offers. Then, in December 1991, coach David McWilliams was fired and replaced by John Mackovic, who pulled Cooper’s offer.
Before his senior year, Peyton asked Archie to drive him to schools he wanted to see on unofficial visits. They gave Texas another look and set it up with Mackovic. When the pair got to Austin, Archie said, Mackovic was nowhere to be found. Instead, they met with offensive coordinator Gene Dahlquist, who didn’t even know they were coming.
Peyton asked Dahlquist who else the Longhorns were recruiting and asked if they could watch some film. So the Texas OC, Archie and Peyton watched high school film of other quarterbacks.
“Peyton said, ‘Coach, how do I stack up?'” Archie recalled. “He said, ‘You’re definitely in our top 12.'”
The Mannings know so many people in football that they don’t take sides in rivalries or — generally — hold any slights from the past against schools. They were tight with Mack Brown and his offensive coordinator, Greg Davis, who both had coached at Tulane and knew them well, so Eli gave the Longhorns serious consideration before opting for Ole Miss.
But Archie still says for Texas’ sake, it was probably fortunate that Arch was Cooper’s son and not Peyton’s. “Cooper never held it against them,” he said. “Peyton never forgot that. Anybody that knows Peyton knows that he doesn’t forget.”
Texas fit a specific vision that Arch had for his career. He didn’t want to live life as the most famous man in a small college town. Staying in the state capital and still getting to play SEC football held a greater appeal to him. He wanted to be just one of the guys.
“It’s not like Ty Simpson or Gunner Stockton at Alabama and Georgia, where the whole town rallies around it,” Arch said. “I can go to parts of Austin where no one really cares about [football], which is nice.”
Will Zurik, one of Arch’s best friends and his former running back at Isidore Newman in New Orleans, understands why. He recalled seeing people post pictures and videos of a seventh-grader Arch playing catch with Heid on Instagram. Just a few years later, Zurik said, it wasn’t just social media obsessing over Arch. Things were spilling over into real life. Before their sophomore year, several Newman teammates went to Thibodeaux to the Manning Passing Academy, and Arch came to hang out in their dorm room. Word got out, and all of a sudden, there was a crowd in the hallway.
“A hundred kids were outside, banging on the door trying to get in,” Zurik said. Arch’s teammates shooed them away,
Zurik and another of Arch’s friends, Saint Villere IV, are students in fraternities at Alabama. The budding Texas-Alabama rivalry makes their friendship a source of fascination in Tuscaloosa. They constantly get peppered with questions about growing up with the most famous amateur athlete in America.
“If he didn’t play football, he’d be here drinking beer with us right now,” Zurik told them. “He’s just another kid — that just happens to be really talented and have that last name. He’s the most selfless kid I know.”
But even the Arch defenders are very serious about keeping their superstar friend from getting too cocky. When they talk to him these days, they try to keep the focus off football. They instead keep their sights on what’s most important, like when Arch arrived at SEC media days in a standard-issue Southern fraternity fit.
Arch has nailed the “Kappa Sig president begging university leadership not to kick his frat off campus” look. https://t.co/kItB96Wh7F
– Zach Barnett (@zach_barnett) July 15, 2025
“It looked like a big day, almost game-day pledge attire,” Villere said. “I’d give him a seven, eight out of 10.”
“Definitely going to use some work,” Zurik said. “But looks good. Could use a beer in his hands.”
They can’t scroll Instagram without seeing Arch in an ad for Vuori or Uber or Panini or Red Bull or any of the other brands he represents. Manning even admitted Monday that he has a private Instagram account he uses to browse, and when he sees something in the media about him, he clicks “not interested.”
“I don’t know how many commercials I’ve done, but probably too many,” Arch said. “Probably tired of seeing my face.”
Villere has taken notice as well and offered a suggestion.
“It seems like he’s got a little room for an acting coach, maybe, but it’s all right,” he said.
For Arch, having friends who keep him humble is the antidote to the puzzling amount of attention he gets. He lives with five other Texas players. He has his brother around, plays golf and hangs out at the lake. He wants his friends to keep him in check.
“If I ever start talking about any of this stuff,” Arch said, “they’re like, ‘Oh, you’re being a total weirdo.'”
IV. The Arch experience in Austin
AUSTIN MIGHT OFFER Arch a little respite from crowds in parts of town, but there’s no neighborhood there where the Longhorns are nobodies. Arch might want the typical college experience, but that’s impossible.
He has tried his best to keep a low profile. His news conference appearances hovered in the single digits over the past two seasons. He didn’t land any high-profile NIL deals, other than agreeing to auction off a one-of-a-kind signed card for charity through Panini. It brought in $102,500, eclipsing an exclusive Luka Doncic card that went for $100,000 and making it the most expensive item sold on the company’s platform. There’s nothing that Arch Manning can do to be just another guy.
Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel were off-the-field famous — after they were stars. For Arch, the fame came first, then football. That’s something that none of the Mannings particularly relish.
“The weirdest part of a lot of this is I haven’t done anything, so why am I getting a bunch of cameras in my face?” Arch asked this summer. He seemed perplexed when another reporter asked how careful he has to be not doing shots at a bar.
“I’m 21, so I can do shots at a bar,” he said. Within hours, Athlon Sports posted a story with the headline: “Arch Manning Says He Can Take Shots at the Bar if he Wants.”
Arch got a quick lesson in just how closely he would be watched immediately after arriving at Texas. He lost his student ID, got a FaceTime call from Sarkisian, who was holding up said ID when he answered and asked if he was missing anything. The student who found it had used it to swipe into the football building, walked right into Sarkisian’s office and handed it to him.
“Pretty ballsy,” Arch said.
Then he lost it again shortly thereafter, leading to tweets about his lack of “pocket awareness.” A Reddit post was headlined “Archibald Manning loses his student ID (Again).” When football season came around, fans held up a giant banner of his ID in the crowd.
Arch says he’s good now, because Texas has moved to a fingerprint-based system instead of swiping a card. Still, his dad says he’s not out of the woods yet.
“He can’t lose his fingerprint,” Cooper said. “Well, if someone could lose it, he could lose it.”
And if someone could steal it, they probably would, too. Arch said this summer he didn’t even have an ID anymore to lose, because he thinks someone stole it while he was on vacation in Charleston, South Carolina. And Arch’s name, image and likeness isn’t even safe in Austin institutions.
Dirty Martin’s Place has been slinging burgers since 1926 right off UT’s campus and has become somewhat of an unofficial museum of Longhorn sports. There are paintings of Earl Campbell (who visits at least once a week), old magazine covers featuring legendary quarterback James Street and a photo wall of fame of athletes who visit.
Daniel Young, the general manager at Dirty’s, said his staff fell in love with Arch as soon as he arrived in the spring of his freshman year. He called Arch “a man of the people,” mixing it up at their proud little dive, which was named for originally having dirt floors. They asked Arch for a photo they could mount on their walls.
“He was already a household name,” Young said.
Arch’s picture occupied a prime spot at the front of the restaurant. That is until April 2024, when only a blank space remained where the photo once hung. This was the second time it had gone missing, after some guys took it off the wall and made videos with it before leaving it on a table outside the restaurant. That time, they found the picture within 12 hours. This time, there was no sign of it. Dirty’s offered a reward for the photo’s return via an Instagram post. “Arch is our friend and this was definitely not a nice thing to do,” it said.
Days later, their long nightmare was over. Four students said they found the picture abandoned in an elevator shaft at an apartment complex near campus and returned it, apparently after the streets got too hot. Shelby Burke, Meredith Greer, Anne Blanche Peacock and Georgia Ritchie now have their photo on the wall with Arch’s.
“I could’ve just blown it up again and put it back up,” Young said. “But now it’s kind of become folklore. He’s a fun-loving kid and he couldn’t be just nicer to my staff. And man, I love him.”
Will Colvin, who has manned the grill at Dirty’s for nearly 30 years said he’s fortunate that in his decades at a campus hangout, he’s gotten to know legends, including favorites Campbell, Cedric Benson and Bijan Robinson.
“But I’m going to tell you something,” Colvin said. “This Arch Manning, he stands out. He has this aura about him. He’s going to do great things.”
For Young, it’s time to take protective measures. No matter how Arch and the Longhorns perform against Ohio State, the game tape will be analyzed more than the Zapruder film. A strong performance will send the burnt orange faithful into a frenzy.
“I really need to get that photo bolted to the wall,” Young said.
V. Finally on the field
BRANNDON STEWART, A longtime tech and software entrepreneur in Austin, has watched the newest iteration of Manning mania from an interesting vantage point. In 1994, he was a star Texas high school quarterback who became one of the nation’s top recruits and signed with Tennessee in the same class as Peyton. They roomed together on the road and lived side by side in the dorms as they competed against each other. Stewart played in 11 of the Vols’ 12 games that year. But Peyton started the last eight contests of the season and Stewart saw the writing on the wall.
“Who’s the one person you wouldn’t want to draw to compete against when you show up at college?” Stewart said. “He would certainly be at the top of the list.”
Stewart says it’s funny now that he didn’t know much about the Mannings beforehand, didn’t know how good Peyton was and, growing up in Texas, wasn’t prepared for the intensity of fans in Knoxville. That’s why, he said, he can empathize with how overwhelming the attention must be for Arch. In 1994, there was a strong contingent of Vols fans who thought Stewart, a high school All-American who had rushed for 1,516 yards while winning a state championship for Art Briles at Stephenville High School, was the better fit to replace the similarly athletic Heath Shuler, the third pick in that year’s NFL draft.
“I remember it was like being Troy Aikman in Dallas,” Stewart said. “Everywhere you go, someone knows who you are and they’re asking for your autograph. People were talking about naming their kid after me.”
When Peyton came to Austin last fall to see Arch, he and Stewart went to dinner and saw each other for the first time in 25 years. Stewart said, even as crazy as that 1994 season was for the two of them, he can’t imagine how it would’ve felt with their every move being broadcast every day.
“Back then it seemed like hysteria, but now it’s like ‘Little House on the Prairie,'” Stewart said. “Everything happens so much faster. I’m sure it’s been quite a ride for him. He’s probably pretty well-groomed for it, desensitized to the stuff that happens when you become popular and successful in sports and was able to adapt to it much better than most of us.”
This summer at the MPA, Arch told ESPN he appreciated being able to feel like a “normal person.” He roomed with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier; two of the most famous people in Louisiana walked around a Thibodeaux Walmart buying snacks. He laughed at the social media frenzy around his trip with star wide receiver Ryan Wingo to his hometown of St. Louis.
“He’s a legend down there,” Manning said.” All those kids want to be like Wingo. They know his dance moves, his touchdown celebration.”
It was the ideal scenario for Arch. He was showing up for his teammates, and someone else was the star. Cutcliffe has watched Arch hype up players on the sideline, celebrate with his teammates and self-deprecatingly deflect questions in interviews like when legendary Texas reporter Kirk Bohls, who has covered the Longhorns for more than 50 years, asked Manning if he gets nervous when he plays. “Nah,” he said, smiling at Bohls. “You get nervous?”
“That’s an Archie Manning trait,” Cutcliffe said. “It’s a Cooper, Peyton and Eli trait. They walk into a room and say, ‘There you are,’ rather than ‘Here I am.’ That’s a rare commodity.”
A.J. Milwee, Texas’ co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach who forged a strong bond with Arch and his family while recruiting him and talking nearly every day, said that being raised by football royalty allows Arch to balance all of the excitement surrounding this game.
“He has real competitive fire,” Milwee said. “He can get juiced up, he can get jacked up, but he’s grown up in a world of quarterbacks. As quarterbacks, we’re taught to be flatliners.”
As a kid, Cooper thought Arch might be a wide receiver like him. But when he coached him in flag football, Arch seemed to have more fun throwing the ball to his buddies so they could all catch a lot of passes.
That’s the plan for Saturday.
“Arch has been a quarterback since he was little, running around,” Cooper said. “I think he made the right call. Don’t listen to your parents. Do what comes natural.”
The world awaits Arch’s arrival on the biggest stage. Sarkisian said the one thing that’s most amazing about Arch’s evolution over the past two years is how much he hasn’t changed.
“He’s normal and that’s what I love about him. It’s not some guy who feels like he’s untouchable, he’s better than everybody else,” Sarkisian said. “You can’t go a day without seeing somebody talking about Arch Manning. He’s a direct representation of our football program and this university and … we respect him for the way that he does it.”
But it’s time to see him do it in uniform. And Cooper believes he’s ready.
“What’s the pressure?” Cooper said. “He gets to play. Pressure is when you don’t know what you’re doing. I think he knows what he’s doing.”
ST. LOUIS — First baseman Willson Contreras has been suspended for six games and fined an undisclosed amount for his tirade during the St. Louis Cardinals‘ 7-6 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night.
Contreras has informed Major League Baseball he will appeal the suspension, which means it will not take effect immediately. He was in the lineup for Tuesday night’s game against the Pirates.
Contreras threw a bat that mistakenly hit Cardinals hitting coach Brant Brown and tossed bubble gum on the field after he was ejected. Manager Oliver Marmol also was tossed during an animated argument with the umpires after a called third strike in the seventh inning.
Contreras said he didn’t understand why he was thrown out of the game. He said he argued balls and strikes with plate umpire Derek Thomas but didn’t address a specific pitch and didn’t say anything disrespectful.
“Apparently, he heard something [he thought] I said. I did not say that,” Contreras said.
Crew chief Jordan Baker told a pool reporter that Contreras and Marmol were ejected for “saying vulgar stuff” to Thomas. Baker also said Contreras made contact with the plate umpire.
After Monday’s win, Marmol agreed with his player.
“We’ll have to dive into it to make sure what Willson’s saying is what happened,” he said at the time. “But I believe him.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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