
14 teams and loads of questions they must answer to win the 2025 CFP crown
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Bill ConnellyJul 22, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Twenty-five years ago, Bob Stoops’ second Oklahoma team headed into the 2000 season with lukewarm expectations. The Sooners’ roster had some solid former blue-chippers, but among their best players were two former juco transfers (quarterback Josh Heupel and linebacker Torrance Marshall) and a small, lowly touted running back (Quentin Griffin). OU was operating its version of the newfangled Air Raid offense, and its secondary was going to be alarmingly young. So, too, was the defensive co-coordinator, a 29-year-old named Brent Venables. The Sooners were ranked 19th in the AP preseason poll as a courtesy, but they hadn’t won more than seven games in a season since 1993.
They finished a lot higher than 19th. The Sooners won their first five games by an average score of 48-13, including a shocking 63-14 walloping of Mack Brown’s Texas. They beat No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Nebraska back-to-back, survived another showdown with K-State in the Big 12 championship, then outlasted Florida State in an Orange Bowl battle of attrition to win their first national title in 15 years.
It was the last time we had a truly unexpected champion. According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national title winner over the past 24 seasons has begun the season with title odds longer than +5000. No matter the title format — a BCS championship, then a four-team College Football Playoff and then, starting in 2024, a 12-team CFP — the champ has come from a pool of about 14 to 18 favorites.
Fourteen teams are at +5000 or shorter this season, according to ESPN BET. (At +6000, Heupel’s Tennessee and Venables’ Oklahoma are among those narrowly missing the cut.) Below, those teams are sorted by the number of “ifs” that need to break their way to make them champs. As always, we’re not going to worry about obstacles such as injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal.
Among these 14 teams, nine have new starting quarterbacks and nine or 10 could end up starting QBs who are sophomores or younger. In this higher-turnover universe, lots of favorites are breaking in new receiving corps, and quite a few had to completely reload on both lines. Some of these rebuilds will work out swimmingly — after all, 13 of these 14 teams cleared the 50% bar in Bud Elliott’s annual Blue-Chip Ratio piece at CBS Sports. With this much turnover and key inexperience, it won’t be a total surprise if an unexpected juggernaut emerges, but the champ will almost certainly come from this pool of 14 teams.
Actually, the pool might be even smaller. This is my seventh year posting the ifs list, and in the previous six, the eventual champ has had three or fewer ifs every year. This approach is a pretty good way of separating wheat from chaff, and this year we have seven teams burdened by three or fewer ifs. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, those seven have a combined 76% chance of winning the title. According to the magic of the ifs, those odds should evidently be even higher.
Jump to a number of ‘ifs’:
2 | 3 | 4
2 ifs
If … Drew Allar has one more gear. James Franklin’s Nittany Lions were basically one minute from the national title game last season. They’ve finished sixth or better in SP+ for three straight seasons. You don’t get the proverbial “can’t win the big one” monkey off your back until you win the biggest game, but this program is currently the envy of nearly every team in college football.
In 2025, a season loaded with unknowns everywhere else, the Nittany Lions overflow with knowns. They might have the best coordinator duo in the country (Andy Kotelnicki on offense and Jim Knowles on defense) and the best running back pair (Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen). They have potential All-Americans in Singleton, Allen, guard Vega Ioane, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton, tackle Zane Durant and safety Zakee Wheatley. They have extreme experience at quarterback in a season in which most teams on the ifs list don’t. Now they just need a little more from him.
Allar improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, finishing 17th in QBR. That’s good, but the past six title winners have had QBs ranked fourth or higher. Here are some key differences between Allar’s 2024 performance and the averages produced by last season’s top four:
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Completion rate: Top four 70.7%, Allar 66.5%
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Yards per completion: Top four 13.1, Allar 12.7
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Passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield: Top four 12.4%, Allar 8.7%
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Yards per dropback against man coverage: Top four 8.7, Allar 7.2
Allar’s stats aren’t too far from where they need to be. If he completes one more pass per every 24 or so he throws, if he has a reason to take a few more shots downfield and if he can better beat man coverage — the type you see a lot from the CFP-level teams — Penn State will have everything it needs for a big run.
Of course, some of that improvement might come down to his receivers as much as him.
If … his new receivers can beat man coverage. In the CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame, Allar completed 9 passes to tight ends, 3 to running backs and zero to wide receivers.
With so many returnees, Franklin didn’t need to do much portal work this offseason, but he did all he could to upgrade the receiving corps. In came Troy’s Devonte Ross, Syracuse’s Trebor Pena and USC’s Kyron Hudson, who combined for 2,446 yards and 23 TDs last season. Khalil Dinkins and Luke Reynolds should be able to deliver tight end efficiency in All-American Tyler Warren’s absence, but among Ross, Pena, Hudson and perhaps returnees such as Liam Clifford, Kaden Saunders and maybe Tyseer Denmark, Allar needs a couple of guys he can trust to beat the defenders across from them and make big plays.
2:48
Kalen DeBoer says Bama’s defense is more experienced
DeBoer joins SEC Now to explain how the defense is more prepared for the season and how the Crimson Tide looks to take action in fulfilling the lofty expectations.
If … Ty Simpson (or anyone) can do what Ryan Grubb needs. One of the fun parts of this exercise is that even I don’t completely know what the results are going to be ahead of time. Teams land where they land. And although Alabama was picked a distant third in last week’s preseason SEC media poll, it appears I have fewer questions about Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide than either of the teams above them in that poll. The Tide return potential All-Americans in receiver Ryan Williams and left tackle Kadyn Proctor, and of the 19 defenders who logged 200-plus snaps for the No. 8 defense (per SP+), 13 return. Plus, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is back with DeBoer after the duo helped to lead Washington to the national title game in 2023.
Basically, if you tell me now that Simpson is going to be good this season — not even great, just good — this is a top-five team at worst. It’s just hard to guarantee that. A former top-40 recruit, Simpson has seen playing time in each of the past three seasons, throwing for 381 yards and rushing for three touchdowns. But about three-quarters of his dropbacks have come in garbage time. In his only sustained action outside of garbage time, he took five sacks in an unexpectedly tight win over South Florida in 2023. Not great.
Honestly, after Jalen Milroe’s negative-play troubles in 2024 (11 interceptions, 9 fumbles, 23 sacks), there’s a path for Simpson to succeed by simply making sure the team in crimson controls the ball. He’ll have strong weapons to whom he can distribute the ball — Williams, slot man Germie Bernard, Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, young former star recruits such as Jaylen Mbakwe, Jalen Hale and Cole Adams — and lord knows he’s waited for this opportunity. If he can’t deliver early, sophomore Austin Mack or freshman Keelon Russell (the No. 2 player in the 2025 class) could step in. One way or another, solid quarterbacking could take Bama far.
If … the pass rush picks up. Bama’s defense played its part for most of 2024. The 40-35 loss to Vandy got weird, but the Tide otherwise allowed just 15.5 points per game. They allowed 4.7 yards per play for the season (9th nationally).
That the Tide were seventh in passing success rate allowed despite ranking just 70th in sack rate says something about the secondary. Corners Zabien Brown and Domani Jackson and safeties Keon Sabb and Bray Hubbard are excellent, but the pass rush really was a liability at times, and the only two players with more than 2.5 sacks last season are gone. Outside linebackers Jah-Marien Latham and Qua Russaw look the part but had just one sack each. One way or another, the pressure needs to improve.
3 ifs
If … the new coordinators clear the bar. In terms of raw recruiting rankings, Ohio State is going to have more talent than every team on its regular-season schedule except maybe Texas in Week 1. (The Buckeyes will have more than almost anyone they might play in the CFP, too.) In Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs, the Buckeyes might have the best offensive and defensive players in the country. Talent wins, and Ohio State will win a lot this season. But at some point, two new coordinators will be asked to earn their salaries.
On offense, Ryan Day is handing the reins to Brian Hartline, who served as coordinator — with Day still calling plays — in 2023 when the Buckeyes crashed to 34th in offensive SP+. When Day decided to give up playcalling, he brought in Chip Kelly to take the job and won a national title with him. With Kelly off to the Las Vegas Raiders, it is Hartline’s turn again. We’ll have no idea if he’s ready to be a master playcaller until we see him calling plays. And when Jim Knowles left for Penn State, Day replaced him with Matt Patricia. As I wrote in my Big Ten preview, “he has loads of NFL experience and was mentored by Bill Belichick, but the last time he performed well in any capacity (from a statistical standpoint) was 2016.” Is he ready?
If … the new QB does too. Julian Sayin was the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback (and No. 9 overall prospect) in the 2024 recruiting class, moving on from Alabama to Ohio State after Nick Saban’s retirement. The 6-foot-1 and 203-pound redshirt freshman isn’t the biggest dude in the world, but he has high-level arm talent and mobility. He could be dynamite right out of the gate. But if he isn’t?
If … the rebuilt lines hold up. Last season’s top four offensive linemen are gone, and while injuries meant that four other returnees started at least two games, the four departees had the four best blown-block rates on the team. Meanwhile, last season’s top four defensive linemen are gone after combining for 49 tackles for loss, 27.5 sacks and 38 run stops. There are blue-chippers everywhere you look, but the bar is high here.
If … Arch is what we think he is. The betting odds from ESPN BET have Texas as a national title co-favorite with Ohio State, and starting quarterback Arch Manning is the favorite for the Heisman Trophy, listed ahead of Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and three quarterbacks (Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and PSU’s Drew Allar) who threw for a combined 11,018 yards last season. Manning threw for just 969. He has started two career games, and they were against ULM and Mississippi State, teams that combined for a 7-17 record. We’ve caught glimpses of everything we were supposed to see from the No. 1 QB in the 2023 recruiting class, but we haven’t seen him do it in any sort of sustained fashion.
If Manning is indeed the best player in the country in 2025, then the puzzle pieces all start to fit together for Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns. But what if he’s merely a very good but inconsistent first-year starter?
If … young receivers give Arch what he needs. In 2024, nine receivers and tight ends caught at least five passes for Texas; only two return: slot man DeAndre Moore Jr., who had two 100-yard games and some serious drops issues, and blue-chip sophomore Ryan Wingo, who looked fantastic early in the season but caught just 10 balls in the final eight games. As with Manning, if they’re ready to raise their game, then combined with incoming receiver Emmett Mosley V (Stanford), tight end Jack Endries (Cal) and the latest round of blue-chippers (including freshman Kaliq Lockett), the receiving corps could be outstanding. But it’s not a given until we see it.
If … the rebuilt lines hold up. Sketchy line play can trip up even the flashiest of contenders, and like Ohio State, Texas is replacing a lot in the trenches. Right guard DJ Campbell is the only returning starter on an O-line that lost All-American left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., and on defense, five of last season’s top six in terms of snaps are gone. Returning end Ethan Burke is outstanding — and linebackers Trey Moore and Colin Simmons will assure the Horns can rush the passer — but Sarkisian was concerned enough to bring in five defensive tackle transfers. They have the requisite size, but they have a very high bar to clear.
If … Gunner Stockton is as good as Kirby Smart says. Smart gushed about Stockton at SEC media days, saying, “He’s got winner written all over him.” The junior was thrown into the deep end late in 2024, playing the first non-garbage-time snaps of his career against Texas (SEC championship game) and Notre Dame (CFP quarterfinals) thanks to Carson Beck’s arm injury.
Stockton didn’t exactly thrive — he had 4.6 yards per dropback and took six sacks, including a game-turning strip sack against Notre Dame — but that was nearly the toughest situation imaginable. Stockton will have an entire offseason to prep. As is one of the themes of this piece, we won’t know he’s ready for the job until he proves it.
If … a veteran receiving corps improves. In the Dawgs’ last two losses of 2024, against Ole Miss and Notre Dame, they scored a total of 20 points, and Beck and Stockton averaged just 10.5 yards per completion while taking nine sacks, many of them coverage sacks. They just didn’t have any difference-makers out wide.
Veterans Dillon Bell, London Humphreys and Colbie Young are back, and 6-5 Texas A&M transfer Noah Thomas is a potential big-play target. But the flashiest new player is Zachariah Branch, a former USC blue-chipper who drew attention as a freshman return man in 2023. However, he produced only 823 receiving yards and three scores in two seasons. Can he or anyone else punish good secondaries?
If … both rebuilt fronts hold up. We can assume Smart is going to put out a smart and absurdly physical defense. But thanks in part to a lack of disruption up front, the Dawgs’ D ranked ninth last season, their worst (or maybe least awesome) showing since 2017. And now, of the 11 players in the front seven who saw at least 200 snaps last season, eight are gone. The offensive line, meanwhile, lost two All-American guards among four starters. Four players return with starting experience, and there are, of course, the requisite former four- and five-stars everywhere you look. But that’s a lot of production to replace, especially considering neither front was quite as strong as usual in 2024. Honestly, if I didn’t trust Smart so much, I would have made this entry two separate ifs.
0:56
Jeremiyah Love: Notre Dame trying to be better than last year
RB Jeremiyah Love sheds insight on Notre Dame’s mindset for the upcoming season.
If … CJ Carr is ready. “Inexperienced former blue-chip quarterback takes over” is a theme among these top teams, isn’t it? For Notre Dame, it appears Carr, a top-40 recruit in 2024, is likely the guy. He has decent size and a good arm; he isn’t the third-down bowling ball that Riley Leonard proved to be, but he could offset that with steadier passing. And, say it with me now, we won’t know he’s ready for the job until he proves it.
The two hardest games on the schedule might come in Week 1 (at Miami) and Week 2 (Texas A&M), so he’ll have to be ready immediately. If he isn’t, sophomore Kenny Minchey better be.
If … the new receiving corps is better than the old receiving corps. Slot man and playoff hero Jaden Greathouse (13 catches for 233 yards and three TDs in the semis and finals) returns, as does possession man Jordan Faison, but of the six wideouts and tight ends targeted at least 25 times last season, they’re the only returnees. The Irish ranked only 66th in yards per dropback last season, and Greathouse was the only primary pass catcher who topped even 12 yards per catch. Can transfers such as Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) and touted youngsters including Cam Williams not only replace what was lost but also serve as a big-play upgrade?
If … the new defensive coordinator clears the bar. It was hard to see Marcus Freeman’s hire of former Miami head coach and NFL position coach Al Golden as defensive coordinator in 2022 as a particularly creative or inspiring move. Shows what we know; under Golden in 2023-24, the Irish recorded their first two top-10 defensive SP+ rankings since 2018. With Golden off to the NFL, Freeman made a similar type of hire. Chris Ash bombed as Rutgers’ head coach in the 2010s and spent the past four seasons as an NFL assistant, but he now takes the reins of a defense loaded with sophomores and juniors who found their footing last season, from linemen Joshua Burnham and Bryce Young to edge rushers Jaylen Sneed and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa to corners Christian Gray and Leonard Moore. Will Ash prove to be the same type of inspired “uninspired” hire who helped the Irish make the national title game?
If … the passing game finds a bit more pop. Not including the 2020 COVID season, I’ve had only three teams with +3000 or higher national title odds in the lofty “3 ifs” category. Two didn’t have the quarterback play to win big (2022 Notre Dame, 2023 Tennessee), but the other was 2019 LSU, the undefeated national champion. So I’m 1-for-3.
There’s a lot to like about this A&M team. Quarterback Marcel Reed returns after producing the best QBR of any freshman in the SEC — that’s right, it wasn’t LaNorris Sellers or DJ Lagway. Reed was solid in terms of both run and pass, but the Aggies’ passing game wasn’t very explosive. And now last season’s top five pass targets are gone. Can transfers such as KC Concepcion (NC State) and Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and young former blue-chippers including Terry Bussey and Ashton Bethel-Roman provide the pop the Aggies lacked?
If … a new pass rush is better than the old one. A&M ranked 19th in defensive SP+ last season — strangely, it was the sixth time in seven years that the Aggies ranked between 16th and 21st. They defended the pass well, but they could have done it even better if they hadn’t ranked 85th in sack rate. Pairing transfer pass rushers such as Dayon Hayes (Colorado) and T.J. Searcy (Florida) with returning starter Cashius Howell and, perhaps, youngsters like Rylan Kennedy and Solomon Williams could produce a strong pass rush tandem. The secondary is going to be awesome regardless, but a little more harassment up front could go a long way.
If … the big-play breakdowns are smaller. A&M ranked fourth nationally in completion rate allowed (53.3%) and 19th in interception rate (3.7%). This was an aggressive secondary, and it returns both a dynamite cornerback duo (Dezz Ricks and Will Lee III) and a pair of safeties (Dalton Brooks and Marcus Ratcliffe) who are unafraid of attacking both the ball and the line of scrimmage. The arrival of Washington nickel back Jordan Shaw is exciting, too. But when opponents landed a punch, it was a haymaker.
A better pass rush would tamp down on breakdowns, but if experience means A&M’s secondary is even better in the risk-versus-reward department, this could be the best pass defense in the country.
4 ifs
If … four long passes meant something. It has been a while since Dabo Swinney’s Clemson had a genuinely explosive attack — quarterback Cade Klubnik has averaged a paltry 10.9 yards per completion over three years. But against an excellent Texas secondary in the CFP, he completed four passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, finishing with 336 yards and three TDs. Granted, most of it came while the Tigers were trailing (and they still lost by 14), but this sudden pop was intriguing. Was it a one-time thing? Or with Antonio Williams and star sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore, is it the new norm?
If … the run defense doesn’t stink anymore. Not even defensive stars such as end T.J. Parker and tackle Peter Woods could keep Clemson from ranking 113th in yards allowed per rush (not including sacks) last season. New coordinator Tom Allen needs to make the whole add up to the sum of the parts on Clemson’s defensive front.
If … the pass rush has teeth again. Clemson was also an unspectacular 44th in sack rate despite Parker’s 11 sacks. He needs a dance partner, and Purdue transfer Will Heldt might be it. The secondary could be dynamite, but it could use a bit more help from the pass rush.
If … the turnovers fairy isn’t too cruel. Clemson had the third-best turnovers luck in the country last season. Without some good bounces, the Tigers don’t beat SMU for the ACC title, and no one’s talking about them as a top-five team this season. Good luck one season doesn’t mean bad luck the next, but they probably can’t count on turnovers to bail them out in 2025.
If … Dante can be Dillon. Dante Moore was the No. 2 prospect in the 2023 recruiting class but mostly misfired as a true freshman at UCLA. After a season as Dillon Gabriel’s understudy at Oregon, Moore gets a second chance. All the high school scouting reports raved about his poise, accuracy and high floor, and Gabriel maximized all those things while throwing for 3,857 yards and 30 TDs for a 13-1 team last season. Is Moore ready to succeed now?
If … Dante has receivers. With Evan Stewart potentially out for most or all of the season because of injury, that means last season’s top five targets (including Stewart) could be gone, and some mashup of veterans (Justius Lowe, Kyler Kasper, Gary Bryant), transfers (Florida State’s Malik Benson, Louisville tight end Jamari Johnson) and recent star recruits (Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan) needs to come up big for Moore.
If … the rebuilt lines hold up. The good news: Dan Lanning landed four sought-after transfers in offensive tackles Isaiah World (Nevada) and Alex Harkey (Texas State), guard Emmanuel Pregnon (USC) and defensive tackle Bear Alexander (USC). The bad news: He had to. Four offensive line starters and four of last season’s five primary defensive tackles are gone. Lanning has recruited well, but transfers and young former star recruits will be tested.
If … the transfer-heavy secondary isn’t a liability. No Oregon unit was hit harder by attrition than a secondary that lost last season’s top eight. Cornerback (and 2023 starter) Jahlil Florence returns from injury, and the transfer trio of corners Jadon Canady (Ole Miss) and Theran Johnson (Northwestern) and safety Dillon Thieneman (Purdue) could be outstanding, but it’s all freshmen and sophomores after that.
If … new star receivers emerge (as usual). Garrett Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 TDs in 2024, but three of his top four receivers are gone. Aaron Anderson is good, senior Chris Hilton Jr. could be excellent if he stays healthy, and transfers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky) have success on their résumés. The ingredients seem strong, but the unit still has to come together.
If … the rebuilt lines hold up. LSU is yet another team starting over in the trenches, with four offensive line starters and last season’s top four linemen gone. Brian Kelly loaded up on defensive line transfers and landed potential stars in end Patrick Payton (Florida State) and tackle Bernard Gooden (USF), but the O-line will start all or mostly sophomores and redshirt freshmen. Yikes.
If … transfers upgrade the secondary. Three of last season’s starting DBs are gone, but LSU ranked only 76th in yards allowed per dropback, so upgrades were needed regardless. In corner Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech), safety A.J. Haulcy (Houston) and nickel Tamarcus Cooley (NC State), Kelly added three transfers who combined for 12 interceptions and 22 breakups last season. Depth remains questionable, but there should be star power in the starting lineup.
If … the risks are better rewarded. Second-year coordinator Blake Baker is willing to risk getting burned to force mistakes. Last season there was too much of the former and not enough of the latter, but with upgrades in the front and back, plus two dynamite-if-healthy linebackers — Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks — returning to full strength, Baker could have what he needs. But LSU hasn’t had a top-20 defense since 2019 (per SP+); it bears serious burden of proof.
If … there’s a quarterback this season. Michigan ranked 130th in yards per dropback in 2024. Granted, going 8-5 and beating both Ohio State and Alabama while almost getting actively sabotaged by the quarterback position is an accomplishment in itself, but the 2023 national champions should probably get back to trying to win games the normal way. Either highly touted freshman Bryce Underwood or Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene must provide general competence unseen last fall.
If … a rebuilt skill corps offers options. Last season’s top two rushers are gone, as are the only two players who topped 200 receiving yards. Transfer backs Justice Haynes (Alabama) and CJ Hester (UMass), and receiver Donaven McCulley (Indiana) will be asked to make early contributions, but this skill corps is terribly unproven overall.
If … a thinned-out offensive line still gets a push. We haven’t had to worry about the Michigan offensive line for a while, but it’s double-dipping in the turnover department: After losing its top six players (in terms of snap counts) after 2023, it lost five of its top eight after 2024. Seniors Giovanni El-Hadi and Greg Crippen are solid, but the rest of the lineup could be filled with redshirt freshmen and sophomores.
If … a second cornerback emerges. Michigan has ranked 11th or better in defensive SP+ for nine of the past 10 seasons and boasts plenty of proven talent in the front six. But the secondary has been thinned out quite a bit, losing five of last season’s top seven. Nickel Zeke Berry is awesome, and 2023 starting safety Rod Moore returns from injury, but the rest of the two-deep will be filled by transfers and youngsters. That’s at least a little bit of a concern.
If … Lagway is what we think he is. Like Arch Manning, we’re projecting success onto DJ Lagway. The No. 8 prospect in the 2024 class went 6-1 as a starter and averaged an explosive 16.7 yards per completion. But he also threw nine interceptions with subpar efficiency, and he ranked 69th in Total QBR. That he’s currently No. 6 in the Heisman odds, then, feels aggressive. Lagway has great size, a huge arm and solid mobility, but that’s a lot of hype.
If … he has receivers. Last season’s two main pass catchers are gone, and sophomores Eugene Wilson III and Aidan Mizell are the two most proven returning options outside of UCLA transfer J.Michael Sturdivant. Wilson caught 61 passes as a freshman and had receptions of 85 and 40 yards early in 2024 before a season-ending injury. He’s a likely star, but Lagway will also need help from others.
If … last season’s sophomore defenders become steely-eyed veterans. How young was Florida’s 2024 defense? Of the 12 returning defenders who had 200-plus snaps, eight are now sophomores or juniors. That the Gators still jumped from 60th to 23rd in defensive SP+ was exciting, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Gators enjoyed another leap in 2025. That will require juniors such as nickel Sharif Denson and linebacker Grayson Howard to raise their games even more.
If … the Gators have the depth to survive this ridiculous schedule. Florida went 8-5 last season — 2-5 against the SP+ top 15 and 6-0 against everyone else. The late-season upsets of LSU and Ole Miss were exciting, but with seven more projected top-15 opponents on the schedule, a genuine title run will require even more huge wins and exceptional depth.
If … Carson Beck is a Cam Ward approximation. Miami pummeled Florida and won its first four games by an average of 42 points; it looked as if coach Mario Cristobal had engineered the Hurricanes’ long-awaited breakthrough. But defensive breakdowns caused a late-season collapse and wasted a brilliant season from eventual No. 1 pick Cam Ward. Georgia transfer Carson Beck should do well (if healthy) — he was eighth in Total QBR last season, after all. But Ward was brilliant, and it still wasn’t enough to get Miami to the CFP.
If … Beck has receivers. Yet another contender rebuilt its receiving corps. Miami lost its top six pass catchers, and Cristobal went transfer-heavy. But while newcomers CJ Daniels (LSU/Liberty) and Keelan Marion (BYU) could be solid, a huge season will require former blue-chippers such as Ray Ray Joseph, Joshisa Trader and maybe freshman Josh Moore to enjoy breakout seasons.
If … the big-play breakdowns are smaller. Aggression stopped paying off for Miami pretty early in 2024.
It’s going to be hard to win three or four CFP games if you’re in the top left corner of that chart. Miami slipped to 52nd in defensive SP+, so Cristobal brought in basically an entire new defense, hiring former Minnesota coordinator Corey Hetherman and signing nine new transfers. Will the overhaul shrink the magnitude of the glitches?
If … a new secondary has the horses. Six of those transfers are defensive backs. Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) were among the best freshmen in the country last season, and senior Charles Brantley (Michigan State) allowed a tiny 3.3 QBR in nine starts. It’s easy to like this transfer class, but the secondary needed a lot of improvement.
If … Austin Simmons is the guy. No coach in college football has been so thoroughly rewarded for going all-in on transfers as Lane Kiffin: Ole Miss has finished in the AP top 11 more times in the past four years (three) than in the previous 57 (two). It was almost a surprise, then, when he didn’t grab quarterback Jaxson Dart’s replacement from the portal. Sophomore Austin Simmons‘ story is incredibly unique — a flame-throwing lefty pitcher, he graduated from high school two years early — but he’s almost completely untested, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, but we won’t know he’s ready until he proves it.
If … the portal once again has the answers on offense. Almost everyone you remember from the Rebels’ 2024 offense is gone, including Dart and most of the skill corps. Kiffin will indeed be leaning heavily on transfers: Receivers De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State) and Harrison Wallace III (Penn State) are experienced, and running back Damien Taylor (Troy) is a yards-after-contact machine, but the line is especially unproven, and the hit rate needs to be high.
If … the rebuilt lines hold up. Another team with new lines. Those responsible for 52 of Ole Miss’ 65 offensive line starts are gone, as are four of the top six defensive linemen (including all three with double-digit TFLs). Proven entities are minimal.
If … the portal has the answers in the secondary too. The secondary lost last season’s top eight guys. Kiffin signed seven transfer DBs, including SEC products such as corner Jaylon Braxton (Arkansas) and safety Sage Ryan (LSU) and smaller-school stalwarts such as nickel Kapena Gushiken (Washington State) and safety Wydett Williams Jr. (UL Monroe). Ole Miss had its best defense in a decade last season, but it’s almost completely starting over.
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Sports
MLB trade grades: Mariners land Josh Naylor in first big deadline deal
Published
5 hours agoon
July 25, 2025By
admin
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Bradford Doolittle
CloseBradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
-
David Schoenfield
CloseDavid Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Jul 24, 2025, 09:45 PM ET
It’s MLB trade season!
From the early deals to get things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity on Thursday, July 31, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for every trade as they go down.
Follow along as ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top. This story will continue to be updated, so turn back for the freshest deadline analysis.
Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor
Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi
Mariners grade: B+
This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.
While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.
Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.
In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.
Diamondbacks grade: B
While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.
Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.
Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.
Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents.
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Mariners land slugging 1B Naylor from D-backs
Published
5 hours agoon
July 25, 2025By
admin
The Seattle Mariners acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night, kicking off Major League Baseball’s trade season with a deal that bolsters Seattle’s efforts to return to the postseason and signals the Diamondbacks are open for business.
The deal, which sends left-handed pitching prospect Brandyn Garcia and right-handed pitching prospect Ashton Izzi to the Diamondbacks, reinforces Seattle’s intentions to aggressively add to its roster before the July 31 deadline.
The Diamondbacks, who entered the season with hopes of returning to their form in 2023 when they made a surprise run to the World Series, are expected to be similarly busy, with a number of impending free agents like Naylor. Among third baseman Eugenio Suarez and right-handers Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, Arizona has some of the most sought-after players on the trade market.
Naylor, 28, is a slugging first baseman whose low strikeout rate makes him particularly appealing to teams. Arizona acquired him over the winter from Cleveland, where he had spent the majority of his career following a trade from San Diego.
In 93 games this season, Naylor is hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs, 59 RBIs and 49 strikeouts in 394 plate appearances. Naylor, a 2024 All-Star known for occasional displays of on-field emotion, has hit .267/.329/.444 with 95 home runs and 402 RBIs in 691 career games. He has played 103 career games at designated hitter, where he could see time in Seattle, which ended a 20-year postseason drought in 2022 but finished one game behind the final wild-card winner in the American League each of the past two seasons.
While Garcia, 25, made his major league debut earlier this week as a reliever, he blitzed through the Mariners’ system as a starter after they selected him in the 11th round of the 2023 draft out of Texas A&M. With a power sinker that runs into the high 90s with a breaking ball that works from his low-slot delivery, he could wind up in either role. As a starter last season, he put up a 2.48 ERA between High-A and Double-A in 116 innings with 134 strikeouts and 47 walks, while in relief this year he struck out 42 and walked 17 in 33⅓ innings with a 3.51 ERA.
Izzi, 21, was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022 who tamed the California League last year with a 2.85 ERA in 110⅔ innings. Over 47.1 innings at High-A this season, he has struck out 54, walked 21 and allowed eight home runs with a 5.51 ERA.
Arizona, whose core of outfielder Corbin Carroll, second baseman Ketel Marte and shortstop Geraldo Perdomo remains one of the most talented in the game, has sought pitching on the trade market following injuries to Corbin Burnes and Jordan Montgomery and a 50-53 start. With Kelly and Gallen potentially leaving via free agency, bolstering the rotation going forward is seen as a priority, especially with a likely deal for Suarez, who is regarded as the best position player readily available at the deadline.
The Mariners, meanwhile, did not tap into their cadre of high-end prospects who comprise arguably the best farm system in baseball. Seattle has been loath to deal the best of them — including shortstop Colt Emerson, outfielder Jonny Farmelo and right-hander Ryan Sloan — for short-term options. The Mariners’ minor league pitching depth grew beyond Sloan and switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje when LSU left-hander Kade Anderson fell to them with the No. 3 pick in the draft over the All-Star break.
Seattle entered Thursday night’s game against the Los Angeles Angels six games behind Houston for the AL West division lead but, at 54-48, is tied with Boston for the second wild-card spot in the AL.
Sports
MLB Power Rankings: A red-hot NL team surges up to debut at No. 1
Published
9 hours agoon
July 24, 2025By
admin
We have a new team atop our power rankings after the first week of the second half. Make way for Milwaukee!
The Brewers were the biggest riser in Week 17, going from No. 9 in our final rankings before the All-Star break to No. 1 as we approach the end of July. The No. 2 team this week? A familiar foe of the Brewers: the division-rival Cubs, who are now one game behind Milwaukee for second place in the National League Central.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers have been overtaken by the Astros and Blue Jays for best record in the league. The Yankees are now four games behind Toronto in the East and sit at No. 9 on our list, their lowest ranking of the season. New York will look to add ahead of next week’s trade deadline (July 31) to make a push down the stretch run.
Where does every team stand in our first power rankings since the All-Star break?
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with analysis on the biggest priority of the second half for all 30 teams.
Second-half preview | Week 15 | Preseason rankings
Record: 61-41
Previous ranking: 9
The Brewers’ biggest strength is self-awareness. They know what they do best and never stray from it. What they do now is pitch well (3.34 starters’ ERA, second lowest in the majors), play great defense (23 outs above average, second most in baseball), run the bases better than any other team (12 base running outs above average) and do the little things right offensively (take walks, put the ball in play, advance runners). The Brewers have won 30 of 43 games since the start of June, and that is no accident. If there’s one thing they would love, though, it’s for William Contreras to revert back to his prior offensive form. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 3
There might not be a bigger need among contenders than the Cubs’ desire to add a starting pitcher. Chicago’s offense has performed like one of the best in the sport, and the Cubs bullpen was good enough throughout May and June to ease concerns about its struggles in July. But if the Cubs want to hold off Milwaukee in the NL Central and make a deep run in October, they’ll need to add another arm alongside Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. Jameson Taillon should return from a calf strain around the middle of August, but Chicago is going to need another impact arm for its rotation. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-43
Previous ranking: 1
In some respects, Detroit’s recent swoon is a blessing in disguise. The Tigers’ lead in the AL Central is still double-digit sturdy — according to Fangraphs, the chances of them winning the division stand at 93.3% — and soon, they’ll get Kerry Carpenter back for their lineup. But the recent losses have fully highlighted the team’s need for one or even two power arms at the back end of their bullpen since the Tigers seem to have a real opportunity to reach the World Series. If the Cardinals decide to trade Ryan Helsley, the Tigers will almost certainly be among the bidders. — Olney
Record: 60-43
Previous ranking: 2
Four Dodgers relievers who were far from expected to pitch high leverage when the season began — Ben Casparius, Alexis Diaz, Will Klein and Edgardo Henriquez — allowed six runs in a span of two innings against the Twins on Tuesday night, turning a tight game into a rout. The Dodgers eventually lost for the 11th time in a stretch of 14 games, by which point their bullpen ranked 24th in the majors in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ OPS. They have been playing all-around bad baseball of late — offensively, defensively, on the mound — but the bullpen is the focus with the trade deadline approaching. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 6
It’s nearly August and the Blue Jays are in first place, atop the only division in the majors with four teams over .500 despite a run differential that suggests they’re six games worse. It’s beyond time to take them seriously. To continue surpassing expectations, they’ll need to continue their brand of ball, which centers around not striking out. Toronto’s 17.4% strikeout rate is the lowest in the majors by more than a percentage point and would be the lowest by a team for a season since the 2017 Astros. The Jays put pressure on teams by putting the ball in play, and it’s working. — Castillo
Record: 58-44
Previous ranking: 5
The Phillies have the starting pitching for a World Series run. They could use an upgrade to their outfield at the trade deadline, but the lineup is battle-tested with star power. The bullpen, however, is another matter. Left-hander Jose Alvarado is eligible to return from his PED suspension in mid-August. While he should bolster the bullpen for the stretch run, he isn’t eligible to pitch in the postseason, so solidifying the relief corps for October — should the Phillies reach the playoffs — is the top priority.
They began addressing the concern this week by signing 40-year-old David Robertson for a third stint with the organization. Expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to scour the trade market for more knowing that starters left out of the rotation in October could instead become contributors out of the bullpen. — Castillo
Record: 60-42
Previous ranking: 4
Some team executives don’t place a high value on club culture and chemistry, not trusting something that can’t really be quantified. But those front office-types should at least consider what’s happened in Houston this season: In a year after Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker moved on, the Astros have continued to win even while seeing their biggest stars (Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and now Isaac Paredes) go down with injuries. Moving forward, the 2025 Astros just need to keep surviving — and winning — while they wait for their stars to return. — Olney
Record: 59-44
Previous ranking: 7
Oh, look, another contender with pitching concerns. While there are questions about the Mets’ rotation — from the lack of a true No. 1 starter to Clay Holmes‘ drastically increased workload to whether Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea can rediscover their previous form upon recent reinstatement from the injured list — David Stearns told reporters this week that his top objective before the trade deadline is acquiring help for a bullpen that is operating on fumes. If that doesn’t happen, the president of baseball operations said he will explore calling up top starting pitching prospects to serve as relievers in the majors for the balance of this season. However it’s done, upgrading the bullpen is atop the list of priorities. — Castillo
Record: 56-46
Previous ranking: 8
As general manager Brian Cashman has plainly outlined, the Yankees have holes in their pitching staff that he wants to fill before the trade deadline. But the best pitcher the Yankees add in the coming weeks may already be on their payroll. Luis Gil is slated to come off the IL to make his season debut by early August. If all goes right, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year should provide a boost to the Yankees’ starting rotation for their playoff push. They also could use him out of the bullpen in October should they decide he’s a better fit there. Whatever the role, he’s an important piece for their championship hopes. — Castillo
Record: 54-48
Previous ranking: 12
If you’re looking for the sleeper team in the AL, there are a lot of signs that Seattle could emerge into a dangerous team by September. The talented rotation, hammered by injuries this season, could finally be intact when Bryce Miller returns sometime in early August. Since June 29, the Mariners have had one of the most productive offenses, hitting more homers than every team except the Yankees and averaging about five runs per game. And Seattle’s not done yet — president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is expected to add corner infield production before the deadline. — Olney
Record: 55-47
Previous ranking: 13
The Padres have practically labeled themselves a second-half team, a nod to the 2024 group that won 34 of 52 games in August and September. To accomplish that this year, though, general manager A.J. Preller will have to give them a boost offensively. The Padres have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball this season. The Nos. 7, 8 and 9 hitters of their lineup have combined for a .580 OPS, lowest in the majors. Yu Darvish remaining healthy and Michael King rejoining the rotation are paramount to a team that has seen a lot of its depth get traded away in recent years. Most of all, though, they need a bat — or two. — Gonzalez
Record: 55-49
Previous ranking: 14
Walker Buehler‘s 5.72 ERA is the sixth highest in the majors among the 105 pitchers with at least 80 innings thrown this season, and his strikeout-to-walk rate ranks 95th. He has the fourth-highest home run rate. It’s been a frustrating year for the right-hander. But Buehler posted one of his best starts of the season Monday when he held the Phillies to two runs (one earned) across seven innings. It’s still not quite the high-octane vintage Buehler — his fastball is average 94 mph, nearly three mph slower than his peak years in Los Angeles, in his first full season after his second Tommy John surgery — but his getting on track could make a substantial impact on Boston’s postseason hopes. — Castillo
Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 10
Major League Baseball has decided that Tampa Bay will play postseason home games at Steinbrenner Field if it qualifies. Now, it’s all about the Rays not letting their road-heavy second-half schedule — created to avoid the miserable heat and relentless rain without a roof in Tampa — hijack their chances. Beginning Friday in Cincinnati, they will play 37 of their remaining 59 games away from Steinbrenner Field. That split includes a two-week, four-city, 12-game West Coast road trip in August. That trek could very well decide their season. — Castillo
Record: 54-49
Previous ranking: 11
The Rafael Devers trade was widely hailed as the type of move that could put the Giants over the top, but the opposite has occurred. Since the shocking move to acquire Devers (and the entirety of his contract) on June 15, the Giants are just 13-18 and their offense sports the sixth-lowest OPS in the sport at .685. Willy Adames has turned his season around, but practically everybody else — Mike Yastrzemski, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and, notably, Devers — has slumped. The Giants might be able to make additional lineup additions on the margins, but their big move has been made. They just need their hitters to step up. — Gonzalez
Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 18
Manager Bruce Bochy said over the weekend that he sensed a turnaround for the club’s sluggish offense shortly before the All-Star break, with the team doing a better job of putting the ball in play. The Rangers have played better of late, making the question of whether to trade for or away talent easier for president of baseball operations Chris Young. With Jake Burger and Joc Pederson on the IL, executives with other teams speculate that Texas will add a first baseman before the deadline, whether it’s someone like the D-Backs’ Josh Naylor or maybe the Nationals’ Nathaniel Lowe. — Olney
Record: 53-50
Previous ranking: 16
The Reds have the makings of a really good team, with a standout group of starters, a dynamic offense and a Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona. But they have yet to find their footing, and at this point, it’s fair to wonder if they ever will. One thing they can do to help that cause, perhaps, is add an outfielder. Reds outfielders have combined to slash only .242/.326/.376 this season. Bringing in someone like Luis Robert Jr., Jarren Duran or Adolis Garcia is the type of move that might finally get this team going, especially with Hunter Greene (groin injury) nearing a rehab assignment. But adding an impact bat seems unlikely. — Gonzalez
Record: 52-51
Previous ranking: 15
The Cardinals finished the month of May eight games over .500 and tied with the Padres for the final wild-card spot. They then split 28 games in June and followed it with 12 losses through their first 17 games in July. With the trade deadline a week away, they find themselves among a bevy of teams occupying an uncomfortable middle space — open to trading away rental players but not willing to fully give up on 2025 just yet, especially with John Mozeliak, their longtime president of baseball operations, stepping away at season’s end. St. Louis will part with some of its best relievers, but its focus should be on doing what it can to find some controllable starting pitching help. — Gonzalez
Record: 50-53
Previous ranking: 17
The D-backs’ biggest priority over this next week is clarity, though it won’t be fully realized. The playoff field is still too muddled. The trade deadline, thus, is too early. And they only convoluted matters with a weekend sweep of the Cardinals. Still, though, the D-backs find themselves far enough out of the race — not to mention injured enough throughout their pitching staff — to make punting on 2025 the prudent choice. A bevy of their pending free agents are expected to be available. General manager Mike Hazen will be tasked with making long-term moves at the trade deadline without compromising the current team. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-50
Previous ranking: 22
With the Guardians in a very different place in the standings this year compared to last season, they are expected to weigh opportunities to maximize the possible trade return for some of their veterans. The player drawing the most inquiries is Steven Kwan, whose skill set would fit a number of contenders, with his high rate of contact, good speed and strong defense. But Kwan will be arbitration eligible for a couple of more winters, which gives the Guardians time to wait — probably into 2026 — for a team to meet their asking price. — Olney
Record: 50-53
Previous ranking: 19
This is the specific time of year when a small sample size matters — when one good outing can make all the difference — and that’s why a small cadre of rival evaluators closely watched Seth Lugo‘s start against the Cubs on Wednesday. But whether Lugo is traded before the deadline or not, the Royals’ primary focus seems to be — not surprisingly — on upgrading their brutal outfield production. That means continuing to give Jac Caglianone the reps he needs as he adjusts to major league pitching. That means looking for opportunities, as the Marlins did with Kyle Stowers, to land hitters under team control through 2026 and beyond. — Olney
Record: 49-53
Previous ranking: 20
Other teams expect Minnesota will deal before the deadline. But no matter who goes — some rival execs are skeptical that the team would seriously consider dealing Joe Ryan — the Twins need to get major league ready players or prospects who help set them up for the future. The front office is stuck in something of a waiting game, with the franchise’s sale still being shaped. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff presumably can’t grow the payroll and take on debt in this period. Resolution of the ownership situation needs to happen before Minnesota can fully build a roster. — Olney
Record: 49-53
Previous ranking: 21
The Angels are among the teams sitting on the fence as the deadline approaches, but they’ve dropped four of six games coming out of the All-Star break at a time when a small sample size matters. No matter what happens between now and July 31, however, what remains paramount for the Angels is the development of their young players. First baseman Nolan Schanuel — still only 23 years old — is having a good season, and Zach Neto has accumulated a more than respectable 3.4 WAR. Jo Adell has 21 homers. But more is needed. — Olney
Record: 44-57
Previous ranking: 24
It’s been another nightmare season for the Braves, riddled with terrible injury luck and unexpected poor performances from key players. Michael Harris II‘s struggles are perhaps the most alarming. The center fielder is batting .214. His .559 OPS and 50 wRC+ rank 159th out of baseball’s 159 qualified hitters, while his 2.8% walk rate is tied for 159th.
It’s been a stunning downturn for a player in his age-24 season who’s only three years removed from posting 4.8 fWAR with a .853 OPS as a rookie — a first year so encouraging that the Braves signed him to an eight-year, $72 million extension that August. Harris’ glove and speed are still valuable — maybe valuable enough to absorb his offensive regression — but a turnaround at the plate in the second half will ease Atlanta’s concerns. — Castillo
Record: 48-53
Previous ranking: 23
The Marlins have turned a corner this season. Since June 10, they’re 23-13 — good for the second-best record in the NL. Zoom out further and they’ve been 35-35 since May 1. Outfielder Kyle Stowers is a legitimate All-Star and franchise player. Eury Perez has looked sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery. Otto Lopez has compiled 3 bWAR. The franchise is trending in the right direction. The final two-plus months is about continuing development, unearthing other future contributors and finishing the year with positive momentum. — Castillo
Record: 44-57
Previous ranking: 25
Besides unloading impending free agents for young talent at the deadline, the Orioles’ other significant second-half move with an eye toward 2026 could be promoting top prospect Samuel Basallo to the majors. The towering catcher (6-foot-4) will likely primarily play first base and DH in the majors with Adley Rutschman expected to return from injury soon, but Basallo’s bat is the priority. He has gigantic power that has clicked this season at Triple-A Norfolk, where he’s hitting .264 with 19 home runs and a .974 OPS in 62 games at just 20 years old. It shouldn’t be long before he’s in Baltimore. — Castillo
Record: 42-61
Previous ranking: 26
Paul Skenes boasts a 1.91 ERA, the lowest among qualified starters. His record: 5-8. Any hopes of building around the game’s best young pitcher will hinge around the Pirates’ ability to add offense, a painstaking process that will continue with this year’s trade deadline. The front office will be fielding a lot of calls about Mitch Keller, David Bednar, Dennis Santana and potentially Bryan Reynolds, among others, over the next week. It is crucial that they leverage them for the types of hitters they’ve struggled to find. — Gonzalez
Record: 42-62
Previous ranking: 27
The A’s have established a formidable group of position players in Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom. But if the franchise is going to take a serious step forward before the move to Las Vegas, it will need to build a pitching staff, and it’s unclear whether the A’s will do that over the next couple of years. Their investment in Luis Severino has been a bust. Other teams say 32-year-old Jeffrey Springs might be available for the right offer. And let’s be real, the ballpark in Sacramento doesn’t foster pitching. The A’s have the second-worst home ERA in the majors at 5.36. — Olney
Record: 41-61
Previous ranking: 28
The Nationals have an exciting core of young position players, led by 22-year-old All-Star James Wood. Now it’s about figuring out which pitchers are part of the future. All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore figures to continue as the staff ace with two years of team control remaining after this season, though a trade for a substantial haul isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Relievers Brad Lord and Cole Henry, both 25, have posted strong campaigns. Cade Cavalli, a 2020 first-round draft pick, is nearing a return from a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of the 2023 season and most of 2024.
However, Gore is the only Nationals starter with an ERA under 4.80 this season, and the bullpen ranks last in the majors in ERA. Discovering and developing the next wave of pitching talent is paramount. — Castillo
Record: 37-66
Previous ranking: 29
Sometime in the next couple of weeks, the White Sox will likely surpass their 2024 win total of 41. While another 100-loss season seems likely, there is clear growth happening with the roster, and this will continue to be the focus for the team. Pitchers such as Sean Burke and Shane Smith and position players such as Kyle Teel are gaining experience. There are teams interested in acquiring the talented Luis Robert Jr. (hello, Padres), and for the right return, the White Sox will trade him before the deadline. — Olney
Record: 26-76
Previous ranking: 30
The Rockies have quietly played better baseball of late, going from winning an abysmal 16% of their games in March, April and May to a more respectable — though obviously still not good — 39% of their games in June and July. The record for most losses in modern baseball history is still within reach, and here’s the thing: The Rockies should not care. They need to approach this trade deadline with a mindset that they haven’t carried into enough of them — of unloading accomplished veterans to acquire as much young talent as possible. Early indications are that they’re wide-open to that, regardless of what it might mean for the final two months of this season. That’s a good thing. — Gonzalez
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