Twenty-five years ago, Bob Stoops’ second Oklahoma team headed into the 2000 season with lukewarm expectations. The Sooners’ roster had some solid former blue-chippers, but among their best players were two former juco transfers (quarterback Josh Heupel and linebacker Torrance Marshall) and a small, lowly touted running back (Quentin Griffin). OU was operating its version of the newfangled Air Raid offense, and its secondary was going to be alarmingly young. So, too, was the defensive co-coordinator, a 29-year-old named Brent Venables. The Sooners were ranked 19th in the AP preseason poll as a courtesy, but they hadn’t won more than seven games in a season since 1993.

They finished a lot higher than 19th. The Sooners won their first five games by an average score of 48-13, including a shocking 63-14 walloping of Mack Brown’s Texas. They beat No. 2 Kansas State and No. 1 Nebraska back-to-back, survived another showdown with K-State in the Big 12 championship, then outlasted Florida State in an Orange Bowl battle of attrition to win their first national title in 15 years.

It was the last time we had a truly unexpected champion. According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national title winner over the past 24 seasons has begun the season with title odds longer than +5000. No matter the title format — a BCS championship, then a four-team College Football Playoff and then, starting in 2024, a 12-team CFP — the champ has come from a pool of about 14 to 18 favorites.

Fourteen teams are at +5000 or shorter this season, according to ESPN BET. (At +6000, Heupel’s Tennessee and Venables’ Oklahoma are among those narrowly missing the cut.) Below, those teams are sorted by the number of “ifs” that need to break their way to make them champs. As always, we’re not going to worry about obstacles such as injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal.

Among these 14 teams, nine have new starting quarterbacks and nine or 10 could end up starting QBs who are sophomores or younger. In this higher-turnover universe, lots of favorites are breaking in new receiving corps, and quite a few had to completely reload on both lines. Some of these rebuilds will work out swimmingly — after all, 13 of these 14 teams cleared the 50% bar in Bud Elliott’s annual Blue-Chip Ratio piece at CBS Sports. With this much turnover and key inexperience, it won’t be a total surprise if an unexpected juggernaut emerges, but the champ will almost certainly come from this pool of 14 teams.

Actually, the pool might be even smaller. This is my seventh year posting the ifs list, and in the previous six, the eventual champ has had three or fewer ifs every year. This approach is a pretty good way of separating wheat from chaff, and this year we have seven teams burdened by three or fewer ifs. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, those seven have a combined 76% chance of winning the title. According to the magic of the ifs, those odds should evidently be even higher.

Jump to a number of ‘ifs’:
2 | 3 | 4

2 ifs

If … Drew Allar has one more gear. James Franklin’s Nittany Lions were basically one minute from the national title game last season. They’ve finished sixth or better in SP+ for three straight seasons. You don’t get the proverbial “can’t win the big one” monkey off your back until you win the biggest game, but this program is currently the envy of nearly every team in college football.

In 2025, a season loaded with unknowns everywhere else, the Nittany Lions overflow with knowns. They might have the best coordinator duo in the country (Andy Kotelnicki on offense and Jim Knowles on defense) and the best running back pair (Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen). They have potential All-Americans in Singleton, Allen, guard Vega Ioane, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton, tackle Zane Durant and safety Zakee Wheatley. They have extreme experience at quarterback in a season in which most teams on the ifs list don’t. Now they just need a little more from him.

Allar improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, finishing 17th in QBR. That’s good, but the past six title winners have had QBs ranked fourth or higher. Here are some key differences between Allar’s 2024 performance and the averages produced by last season’s top four:

• Completion rate: Top four 70.7%, Allar 66.5%

• Yards per completion: Top four 13.1, Allar 12.7

• Passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield: Top four 12.4%, Allar 8.7%

• Yards per dropback against man coverage: Top four 8.7, Allar 7.2

Allar’s stats aren’t too far from where they need to be. If he completes one more pass per every 24 or so he throws, if he has a reason to take a few more shots downfield and if he can better beat man coverage — the type you see a lot from the CFP-level teams — Penn State will have everything it needs for a big run.

Of course, some of that improvement might come down to his receivers as much as him.

If … his new receivers can beat man coverage. In the CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame, Allar completed 9 passes to tight ends, 3 to running backs and zero to wide receivers.

With so many returnees, Franklin didn’t need to do much portal work this offseason, but he did all he could to upgrade the receiving corps. In came Troy’s Devonte Ross, Syracuse’s Trebor Pena and USC’s Kyron Hudson, who combined for 2,446 yards and 23 TDs last season. Khalil Dinkins and Luke Reynolds should be able to deliver tight end efficiency in All-American Tyler Warren’s absence, but among Ross, Pena, Hudson and perhaps returnees such as Liam Clifford, Kaden Saunders and maybe Tyseer Denmark, Allar needs a couple of guys he can trust to beat the defenders across from them and make big plays.

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Kalen DeBoer says Bama’s defense is more experienced

DeBoer joins SEC Now to explain how the defense is more prepared for the season and how the Crimson Tide looks to take action in fulfilling the lofty expectations.

If … Ty Simpson (or anyone) can do what Ryan Grubb needs. One of the fun parts of this exercise is that even I don’t completely know what the results are going to be ahead of time. Teams land where they land. And although Alabama was picked a distant third in last week’s preseason SEC media poll, it appears I have fewer questions about Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide than either of the teams above them in that poll. The Tide return potential All-Americans in receiver Ryan Williams and left tackle Kadyn Proctor, and of the 19 defenders who logged 200-plus snaps for the No. 8 defense (per SP+), 13 return. Plus, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is back with DeBoer after the duo helped to lead Washington to the national title game in 2023.

Basically, if you tell me now that Simpson is going to be good this season — not even great, just good — this is a top-five team at worst. It’s just hard to guarantee that. A former top-40 recruit, Simpson has seen playing time in each of the past three seasons, throwing for 381 yards and rushing for three touchdowns. But about three-quarters of his dropbacks have come in garbage time. In his only sustained action outside of garbage time, he took five sacks in an unexpectedly tight win over South Florida in 2023. Not great.

Honestly, after Jalen Milroe’s negative-play troubles in 2024 (11 interceptions, 9 fumbles, 23 sacks), there’s a path for Simpson to succeed by simply making sure the team in crimson controls the ball. He’ll have strong weapons to whom he can distribute the ball — Williams, slot man Germie Bernard, Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, young former star recruits such as Jaylen Mbakwe, Jalen Hale and Cole Adams — and lord knows he’s waited for this opportunity. If he can’t deliver early, sophomore Austin Mack or freshman Keelon Russell (the No. 2 player in the 2025 class) could step in. One way or another, solid quarterbacking could take Bama far.

If … the pass rush picks up. Bama’s defense played its part for most of 2024. The 40-35 loss to Vandy got weird, but the Tide otherwise allowed just 15.5 points per game. They allowed 4.7 yards per play for the season (9th nationally).

That the Tide were seventh in passing success rate allowed despite ranking just 70th in sack rate says something about the secondary. Corners Zabien Brown and Domani Jackson and safeties Keon Sabb and Bray Hubbard are excellent, but the pass rush really was a liability at times, and the only two players with more than 2.5 sacks last season are gone. Outside linebackers Jah-Marien Latham and Qua Russaw look the part but had just one sack each. One way or another, the pressure needs to improve.

3 ifs

If … the new coordinators clear the bar. In terms of raw recruiting rankings, Ohio State is going to have more talent than every team on its regular-season schedule except maybe Texas in Week 1. (The Buckeyes will have more than almost anyone they might play in the CFP, too.) In Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs, the Buckeyes might have the best offensive and defensive players in the country. Talent wins, and Ohio State will win a lot this season. But at some point, two new coordinators will be asked to earn their salaries.

On offense, Ryan Day is handing the reins to Brian Hartline, who served as coordinator — with Day still calling plays — in 2023 when the Buckeyes crashed to 34th in offensive SP+. When Day decided to give up playcalling, he brought in Chip Kelly to take the job and won a national title with him. With Kelly off to the Las Vegas Raiders, it is Hartline’s turn again. We’ll have no idea if he’s ready to be a master playcaller until we see him calling plays. And when Jim Knowles left for Penn State, Day replaced him with Matt Patricia. As I wrote in my Big Ten preview, “he has loads of NFL experience and was mentored by Bill Belichick, but the last time he performed well in any capacity (from a statistical standpoint) was 2016.” Is he ready?

If … the new QB does too. Julian Sayin was the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback (and No. 9 overall prospect) in the 2024 recruiting class, moving on from Alabama to Ohio State after Nick Saban’s retirement. The 6-foot-1 and 203-pound redshirt freshman isn’t the biggest dude in the world, but he has high-level arm talent and mobility. He could be dynamite right out of the gate. But if he isn’t?

If … the rebuilt lines hold up. Last season’s top four offensive linemen are gone, and while injuries meant that four other returnees started at least two games, the four departees had the four best blown-block rates on the team. Meanwhile, last season’s top four defensive linemen are gone after combining for 49 tackles for loss, 27.5 sacks and 38 run stops. There are blue-chippers everywhere you look, but the bar is high here.

If … Arch is what we think he is. The betting odds from ESPN BET have Texas as a national title co-favorite with Ohio State, and starting quarterback Arch Manning is the favorite for the Heisman Trophy, listed ahead of Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and three quarterbacks (Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and PSU’s Drew Allar) who threw for a combined 11,018 yards last season. Manning threw for just 969. He has started two career games, and they were against ULM and Mississippi State, teams that combined for a 7-17 record. We’ve caught glimpses of everything we were supposed to see from the No. 1 QB in the 2023 recruiting class, but we haven’t seen him do it in any sort of sustained fashion.

If Manning is indeed the best player in the country in 2025, then the puzzle pieces all start to fit together for Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns. But what if he’s merely a very good but inconsistent first-year starter?

If … young receivers give Arch what he needs. In 2024, nine receivers and tight ends caught at least five passes for Texas; only two return: slot man DeAndre Moore Jr., who had two 100-yard games and some serious drops issues, and blue-chip sophomore Ryan Wingo, who looked fantastic early in the season but caught just 10 balls in the final eight games. As with Manning, if they’re ready to raise their game, then combined with incoming receiver Emmett Mosley V (Stanford), tight end Jack Endries (Cal) and the latest round of blue-chippers (including freshman Kaliq Lockett), the receiving corps could be outstanding. But it’s not a given until we see it.

If … the rebuilt lines hold up. Sketchy line play can trip up even the flashiest of contenders, and like Ohio State, Texas is replacing a lot in the trenches. Right guard DJ Campbell is the only returning starter on an O-line that lost All-American left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., and on defense, five of last season’s top six in terms of snaps are gone. Returning end Ethan Burke is outstanding — and linebackers Trey Moore and Colin Simmons will assure the Horns can rush the passer — but Sarkisian was concerned enough to bring in five defensive tackle transfers. They have the requisite size, but they have a very high bar to clear.

If … Gunner Stockton is as good as Kirby Smart says. Smart gushed about Stockton at SEC media days, saying, “He’s got winner written all over him.” The junior was thrown into the deep end late in 2024, playing the first non-garbage-time snaps of his career against Texas (SEC championship game) and Notre Dame (CFP quarterfinals) thanks to Carson Beck’s arm injury.

Stockton didn’t exactly thrive — he had 4.6 yards per dropback and took six sacks, including a game-turning strip sack against Notre Dame — but that was nearly the toughest situation imaginable. Stockton will have an entire offseason to prep. As is one of the themes of this piece, we won’t know he’s ready for the job until he proves it.

If … a veteran receiving corps improves. In the Dawgs’ last two losses of 2024, against Ole Miss and Notre Dame, they scored a total of 20 points, and Beck and Stockton averaged just 10.5 yards per completion while taking nine sacks, many of them coverage sacks. They just didn’t have any difference-makers out wide.

Veterans Dillon Bell, London Humphreys and Colbie Young are back, and 6-5 Texas A&M transfer Noah Thomas is a potential big-play target. But the flashiest new player is Zachariah Branch, a former USC blue-chipper who drew attention as a freshman return man in 2023. However, he produced only 823 receiving yards and three scores in two seasons. Can he or anyone else punish good secondaries?

If … both rebuilt fronts hold up. We can assume Smart is going to put out a smart and absurdly physical defense. But thanks in part to a lack of disruption up front, the Dawgs’ D ranked ninth last season, their worst (or maybe least awesome) showing since 2017. And now, of the 11 players in the front seven who saw at least 200 snaps last season, eight are gone. The offensive line, meanwhile, lost two All-American guards among four starters. Four players return with starting experience, and there are, of course, the requisite former four- and five-stars everywhere you look. But that’s a lot of production to replace, especially considering neither front was quite as strong as usual in 2024. Honestly, if I didn’t trust Smart so much, I would have made this entry two separate ifs.

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Jeremiyah Love: Notre Dame trying to be better than last year

RB Jeremiyah Love sheds insight on Notre Dame’s mindset for the upcoming season.

If … CJ Carr is ready. “Inexperienced former blue-chip quarterback takes over” is a theme among these top teams, isn’t it? For Notre Dame, it appears Carr, a top-40 recruit in 2024, is likely the guy. He has decent size and a good arm; he isn’t the third-down bowling ball that Riley Leonard proved to be, but he could offset that with steadier passing. And, say it with me now, we won’t know he’s ready for the job until he proves it.

The two hardest games on the schedule might come in Week 1 (at Miami) and Week 2 (Texas A&M), so he’ll have to be ready immediately. If he isn’t, sophomore Kenny Minchey better be.

If … the new receiving corps is better than the old receiving corps. Slot man and playoff hero Jaden Greathouse (13 catches for 233 yards and three TDs in the semis and finals) returns, as does possession man Jordan Faison, but of the six wideouts and tight ends targeted at least 25 times last season, they’re the only returnees. The Irish ranked only 66th in yards per dropback last season, and Greathouse was the only primary pass catcher who topped even 12 yards per catch. Can transfers such as Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) and touted youngsters including Cam Williams not only replace what was lost but also serve as a big-play upgrade?

If … the new defensive coordinator clears the bar. It was hard to see Marcus Freeman’s hire of former Miami head coach and NFL position coach Al Golden as defensive coordinator in 2022 as a particularly creative or inspiring move. Shows what we know; under Golden in 2023-24, the Irish recorded their first two top-10 defensive SP+ rankings since 2018. With Golden off to the NFL, Freeman made a similar type of hire. Chris Ash bombed as Rutgers’ head coach in the 2010s and spent the past four seasons as an NFL assistant, but he now takes the reins of a defense loaded with sophomores and juniors who found their footing last season, from linemen Joshua Burnham and Bryce Young to edge rushers Jaylen Sneed and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa to corners Christian Gray and Leonard Moore. Will Ash prove to be the same type of inspired “uninspired” hire who helped the Irish make the national title game?

If … the passing game finds a bit more pop. Not including the 2020 COVID season, I’ve had only three teams with +3000 or higher national title odds in the lofty “3 ifs” category. Two didn’t have the quarterback play to win big (2022 Notre Dame, 2023 Tennessee), but the other was 2019 LSU, the undefeated national champion. So I’m 1-for-3.

There’s a lot to like about this A&M team. Quarterback Marcel Reed returns after producing the best QBR of any freshman in the SEC — that’s right, it wasn’t LaNorris Sellers or DJ Lagway. Reed was solid in terms of both run and pass, but the Aggies’ passing game wasn’t very explosive. And now last season’s top five pass targets are gone. Can transfers such as KC Concepcion (NC State) and Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and young former blue-chippers including Terry Bussey and Ashton Bethel-Roman provide the pop the Aggies lacked?

If … a new pass rush is better than the old one. A&M ranked 19th in defensive SP+ last season — strangely, it was the sixth time in seven years that the Aggies ranked between 16th and 21st. They defended the pass well, but they could have done it even better if they hadn’t ranked 85th in sack rate. Pairing transfer pass rushers such as Dayon Hayes (Colorado) and T.J. Searcy (Florida) with returning starter Cashius Howell and, perhaps, youngsters like Rylan Kennedy and Solomon Williams could produce a strong pass rush tandem. The secondary is going to be awesome regardless, but a little more harassment up front could go a long way.

If … the big-play breakdowns are smaller. A&M ranked fourth nationally in completion rate allowed (53.3%) and 19th in interception rate (3.7%). This was an aggressive secondary, and it returns both a dynamite cornerback duo (Dezz Ricks and Will Lee III) and a pair of safeties (Dalton Brooks and Marcus Ratcliffe) who are unafraid of attacking both the ball and the line of scrimmage. The arrival of Washington nickel back Jordan Shaw is exciting, too. But when opponents landed a punch, it was a haymaker.

A better pass rush would tamp down on breakdowns, but if experience means A&M’s secondary is even better in the risk-versus-reward department, this could be the best pass defense in the country.

4 ifs

If … four long passes meant something. It has been a while since Dabo Swinney’s Clemson had a genuinely explosive attack — quarterback Cade Klubnik has averaged a paltry 10.9 yards per completion over three years. But against an excellent Texas secondary in the CFP, he completed four passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, finishing with 336 yards and three TDs. Granted, most of it came while the Tigers were trailing (and they still lost by 14), but this sudden pop was intriguing. Was it a one-time thing? Or with Antonio Williams and star sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore, is it the new norm?

If … the run defense doesn’t stink anymore. Not even defensive stars such as end T.J. Parker and tackle Peter Woods could keep Clemson from ranking 113th in yards allowed per rush (not including sacks) last season. New coordinator Tom Allen needs to make the whole add up to the sum of the parts on Clemson’s defensive front.

If … the pass rush has teeth again. Clemson was also an unspectacular 44th in sack rate despite Parker’s 11 sacks. He needs a dance partner, and Purdue transfer Will Heldt might be it. The secondary could be dynamite, but it could use a bit more help from the pass rush.

If … the turnovers fairy isn’t too cruel. Clemson had the third-best turnovers luck in the country last season. Without some good bounces, the Tigers don’t beat SMU for the ACC title, and no one’s talking about them as a top-five team this season. Good luck one season doesn’t mean bad luck the next, but they probably can’t count on turnovers to bail them out in 2025.

If … Dante can be Dillon. Dante Moore was the No. 2 prospect in the 2023 recruiting class but mostly misfired as a true freshman at UCLA. After a season as Dillon Gabriel’s understudy at Oregon, Moore gets a second chance. All the high school scouting reports raved about his poise, accuracy and high floor, and Gabriel maximized all those things while throwing for 3,857 yards and 30 TDs for a 13-1 team last season. Is Moore ready to succeed now?

If … Dante has receivers. With Evan Stewart potentially out for most or all of the season because of injury, that means last season’s top five targets (including Stewart) could be gone, and some mashup of veterans (Justius Lowe, Kyler Kasper, Gary Bryant), transfers (Florida State’s Malik Benson, Louisville tight end Jamari Johnson) and recent star recruits (Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan) needs to come up big for Moore.

If … the rebuilt lines hold up. The good news: Dan Lanning landed four sought-after transfers in offensive tackles Isaiah World (Nevada) and Alex Harkey (Texas State), guard Emmanuel Pregnon (USC) and defensive tackle Bear Alexander (USC). The bad news: He had to. Four offensive line starters and four of last season’s five primary defensive tackles are gone. Lanning has recruited well, but transfers and young former star recruits will be tested.

If … the transfer-heavy secondary isn’t a liability. No Oregon unit was hit harder by attrition than a secondary that lost last season’s top eight. Cornerback (and 2023 starter) Jahlil Florence returns from injury, and the transfer trio of corners Jadon Canady (Ole Miss) and Theran Johnson (Northwestern) and safety Dillon Thieneman (Purdue) could be outstanding, but it’s all freshmen and sophomores after that.

If … new star receivers emerge (as usual). Garrett Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 TDs in 2024, but three of his top four receivers are gone. Aaron Anderson is good, senior Chris Hilton Jr. could be excellent if he stays healthy, and transfers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky) have success on their résumés. The ingredients seem strong, but the unit still has to come together.

If … the rebuilt lines hold up. LSU is yet another team starting over in the trenches, with four offensive line starters and last season’s top four linemen gone. Brian Kelly loaded up on defensive line transfers and landed potential stars in end Patrick Payton (Florida State) and tackle Bernard Gooden (USF), but the O-line will start all or mostly sophomores and redshirt freshmen. Yikes.

If … transfers upgrade the secondary. Three of last season’s starting DBs are gone, but LSU ranked only 76th in yards allowed per dropback, so upgrades were needed regardless. In corner Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech), safety A.J. Haulcy (Houston) and nickel Tamarcus Cooley (NC State), Kelly added three transfers who combined for 12 interceptions and 22 breakups last season. Depth remains questionable, but there should be star power in the starting lineup.

If … the risks are better rewarded. Second-year coordinator Blake Baker is willing to risk getting burned to force mistakes. Last season there was too much of the former and not enough of the latter, but with upgrades in the front and back, plus two dynamite-if-healthy linebackers — Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks — returning to full strength, Baker could have what he needs. But LSU hasn’t had a top-20 defense since 2019 (per SP+); it bears serious burden of proof.

If … there’s a quarterback this season. Michigan ranked 130th in yards per dropback in 2024. Granted, going 8-5 and beating both Ohio State and Alabama while almost getting actively sabotaged by the quarterback position is an accomplishment in itself, but the 2023 national champions should probably get back to trying to win games the normal way. Either highly touted freshman Bryce Underwood or Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene must provide general competence unseen last fall.

If … a rebuilt skill corps offers options. Last season’s top two rushers are gone, as are the only two players who topped 200 receiving yards. Transfer backs Justice Haynes (Alabama) and CJ Hester (UMass), and receiver Donaven McCulley (Indiana) will be asked to make early contributions, but this skill corps is terribly unproven overall.

If … a thinned-out offensive line still gets a push. We haven’t had to worry about the Michigan offensive line for a while, but it’s double-dipping in the turnover department: After losing its top six players (in terms of snap counts) after 2023, it lost five of its top eight after 2024. Seniors Giovanni El-Hadi and Greg Crippen are solid, but the rest of the lineup could be filled with redshirt freshmen and sophomores.

If … a second cornerback emerges. Michigan has ranked 11th or better in defensive SP+ for nine of the past 10 seasons and boasts plenty of proven talent in the front six. But the secondary has been thinned out quite a bit, losing five of last season’s top seven. Nickel Zeke Berry is awesome, and 2023 starting safety Rod Moore returns from injury, but the rest of the two-deep will be filled by transfers and youngsters. That’s at least a little bit of a concern.

If … Lagway is what we think he is. Like Arch Manning, we’re projecting success onto DJ Lagway. The No. 8 prospect in the 2024 class went 6-1 as a starter and averaged an explosive 16.7 yards per completion. But he also threw nine interceptions with subpar efficiency, and he ranked 69th in Total QBR. That he’s currently No. 6 in the Heisman odds, then, feels aggressive. Lagway has great size, a huge arm and solid mobility, but that’s a lot of hype.

If … he has receivers. Last season’s two main pass catchers are gone, and sophomores Eugene Wilson III and Aidan Mizell are the two most proven returning options outside of UCLA transfer J.Michael Sturdivant. Wilson caught 61 passes as a freshman and had receptions of 85 and 40 yards early in 2024 before a season-ending injury. He’s a likely star, but Lagway will also need help from others.

If … last season’s sophomore defenders become steely-eyed veterans. How young was Florida’s 2024 defense? Of the 12 returning defenders who had 200-plus snaps, eight are now sophomores or juniors. That the Gators still jumped from 60th to 23rd in defensive SP+ was exciting, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Gators enjoyed another leap in 2025. That will require juniors such as nickel Sharif Denson and linebacker Grayson Howard to raise their games even more.

If … the Gators have the depth to survive this ridiculous schedule. Florida went 8-5 last season — 2-5 against the SP+ top 15 and 6-0 against everyone else. The late-season upsets of LSU and Ole Miss were exciting, but with seven more projected top-15 opponents on the schedule, a genuine title run will require even more huge wins and exceptional depth.

If … Carson Beck is a Cam Ward approximation. Miami pummeled Florida and won its first four games by an average of 42 points; it looked as if coach Mario Cristobal had engineered the Hurricanes’ long-awaited breakthrough. But defensive breakdowns caused a late-season collapse and wasted a brilliant season from eventual No. 1 pick Cam Ward. Georgia transfer Carson Beck should do well (if healthy) — he was eighth in Total QBR last season, after all. But Ward was brilliant, and it still wasn’t enough to get Miami to the CFP.

If … Beck has receivers. Yet another contender rebuilt its receiving corps. Miami lost its top six pass catchers, and Cristobal went transfer-heavy. But while newcomers CJ Daniels (LSU/Liberty) and Keelan Marion (BYU) could be solid, a huge season will require former blue-chippers such as Ray Ray Joseph, Joshisa Trader and maybe freshman Josh Moore to enjoy breakout seasons.

If … the big-play breakdowns are smaller. Aggression stopped paying off for Miami pretty early in 2024.

It’s going to be hard to win three or four CFP games if you’re in the top left corner of that chart. Miami slipped to 52nd in defensive SP+, so Cristobal brought in basically an entire new defense, hiring former Minnesota coordinator Corey Hetherman and signing nine new transfers. Will the overhaul shrink the magnitude of the glitches?

If … a new secondary has the horses. Six of those transfers are defensive backs. Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) were among the best freshmen in the country last season, and senior Charles Brantley (Michigan State) allowed a tiny 3.3 QBR in nine starts. It’s easy to like this transfer class, but the secondary needed a lot of improvement.

If … Austin Simmons is the guy. No coach in college football has been so thoroughly rewarded for going all-in on transfers as Lane Kiffin: Ole Miss has finished in the AP top 11 more times in the past four years (three) than in the previous 57 (two). It was almost a surprise, then, when he didn’t grab quarterback Jaxson Dart’s replacement from the portal. Sophomore Austin Simmons‘ story is incredibly unique — a flame-throwing lefty pitcher, he graduated from high school two years early — but he’s almost completely untested, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, but we won’t know he’s ready until he proves it.

If … the portal once again has the answers on offense. Almost everyone you remember from the Rebels’ 2024 offense is gone, including Dart and most of the skill corps. Kiffin will indeed be leaning heavily on transfers: Receivers De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State) and Harrison Wallace III (Penn State) are experienced, and running back Damien Taylor (Troy) is a yards-after-contact machine, but the line is especially unproven, and the hit rate needs to be high.

If … the rebuilt lines hold up. Another team with new lines. Those responsible for 52 of Ole Miss’ 65 offensive line starts are gone, as are four of the top six defensive linemen (including all three with double-digit TFLs). Proven entities are minimal.

If … the portal has the answers in the secondary too. The secondary lost last season’s top eight guys. Kiffin signed seven transfer DBs, including SEC products such as corner Jaylon Braxton (Arkansas) and safety Sage Ryan (LSU) and smaller-school stalwarts such as nickel Kapena Gushiken (Washington State) and safety Wydett Williams Jr. (UL Monroe). Ole Miss had its best defense in a decade last season, but it’s almost completely starting over.