Tesla (TSLA) Q2 earnings preview: on the road to unprofitability
Tesla (TSLA) will release its Q2 2025 financial results on Wednesday, July 31, after the market closes. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q2 2025 deliveries and energy deployment
CEO Elon Musk and his loyal shareholders often claim that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company. However, the truth is that the company’s automotive business continues to drive the vast majority of its financial performance.
Tesla’s revenue remains tied mainly to the number of vehicles it delivers.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q2 2025 vehicle production and deliveries:
| Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model 3/Y | 396,835 | 373,728 | 2% |
| Other Models | 13,409 | 10,394 | 7% |
| Total | 410,244 | 384,122 | 2% |
The deliveries came in right on expectation, which is about 13.5% down from the same period last year.
Tesla also produced 25,000 vehicles more than it delivered, but that won’t affect its financials this quarter as the automaker only accounts for delivered vehicles in its cost of revenues.
The company also disclosed having deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage during the quarter – roughly the same as the same period last year.
Tesla Q2 2025 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers and now the energy storage deployment data.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $22.279 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slightly lower revenue of $22.202 billion.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:
This result would be significantly lower than the $25 billion in revenue that Tesla delivered during the same period in 2024.
It’s worth nothing that over the last 3 quarters, Tesla’s revenue came under expectations.
Tesla Q2 2025 earnings
Tesla claims to consistently strive for marginal profitability every quarter, as it invests the majority of its funds in growth, but its growth has disappeared from its automotive business over the last year, and its gross margin is going in the same direction.
Analysts are trying to estimate Tesla’s gross margin with the lower deliveries and higher discounts to figure out its actual earnings per share.
For Q2 2025, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.40 per share and Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction is a little lower at $0.39.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
If Tesla delivers on expectations, it would be a significant drop in earnings from $0.52 per share in Q2 2024.
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter, analyst call, and special ‘company update’
In Q1, Tesla blamed its poor performance on the Model Y changeover. It doesn’t have this excuse in the second quarter.
CEO Elon Musk has been extremely misleading to shareholders about Tesla’s demand situation. He was caught straight up lying about it last quarter.
But I expect Musk to have Tesla shareholders focus on future revenue prospects from robotaxi and robots, something he has been prosming for years without any real evidence that Tesla will lead any of those sectors.
Tesla will also take questions from retail shareholders based on the most popular ones on Say. Here are the top 5 questions and my thoughts on them:
- Can you give us some insight how robotaxis have been performing so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities, and supervisors?
- Tesla has never released publicly any data about its self-driving efforts and it went out of its way to avoid reporting it to authorities and the public. I expect nothing here other than “we are growing as fast as regulators allow it”, which is a lie. Tesla still uses safety supervisors and mapping, which are the limiting factors.
- Can you provide an update on the development and production timeline for Tesla’s more affordable models? How will these models balance cost reduction with profitability, and what impact do you expect on demand in the current economic climate?
- Tesla said that those cheaper models would come in the first half of 2025, but they didn’t. As we have previously mentioned, they are basically stripped down versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, allowing Tesla to reduce the base price. We expect them to launch after the federal tax credit to end at the end of Q3.
- What are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use? Timeline?
- Tesla hasn’t solved self-driving and it is not coming to consumer vehicles any time soon.
- What specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing, and what is the expected timeline for scaling production to enable external sales? How does Tesla envision Optimus contributing to revenue in the next 2–3 years?
- When do you anticipate customer vehicles to receive unsupervised FSD?
- He is going to say “next year” like he has been saying every year for the last 6 years and again, it won’t happen.
Anything to distract from the fact that Tesla might start to become unprofitable as soon as Q1 2026.
Tesla’s earnings have been going down over the last 2 years and the trend is clear. Furthermore, the removal of the federal tax credit for EVs in the US, Tesla’s healthiest large market, and most ZEV credits going away are accelerating the trend in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Tune in with Electrek after market close today to get all the latest news from Tesla’s earnings, conference call, and now also an apparent “company update.”
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Lucid’s electric minivan can outsprint the Chevy Corvette Z06, and it has more interior space than a Ford Explorer. Is the Lucid Gravity really the “ultimate uncompromising SUV?”
Lucid Gravity SUV is faster than a Corvette Z06
Lucid’s electric SUV is impressive inside and out. The Gravity provides up to 450 miles of driving range, ultra-fast charging (200 miles in under 11 mins), and it even offers up to 120 cubic feet of cargo space. That’s more than the Ford Explorer (87.8 cu ft).
It’s also faster than most sports cars. The Grand Touring trim has up to 845 hp, good for a 0 to 60 mph sprint in just 3.4 seconds, but the Dream Edition takes it to another level.
Powered by dual electric motors, the Lucid Gravity Dream Edition boasts 1,070 hp. To see how Lucid’s minivan stacks up against the competition, Car and Driver nabbed one for testing.
On the test track, the Lucid’s minivan covered a quarter-mile in just 10.6 secs, beating a Chevrolet Corvette Z06 to 150 mph by nearly three seconds.
According to Car and Driver, the Gravity didn’t just impress in the quarter-mile, “it was a beast in every acceleration metric.” Lucid’s SUV hit 30 mph in 1.4 seconds, 70 mph in 3.7 secs, and topped 100 mph in just 5.9 seconds.
Dave Vanderwerp, the testing director who took the Gravity for a spin, said the electric SUV “gets a sort of second wave of thrust starting around 60 mph.”
With a quarter-mile of just 10.6 secs, Lucid’s Gravity is the fastest SUV they have ever tested, beating out the Rivian Tri-Motor Max (11.1 secs), BMW iX M60 (11.5 secs), and Mercedes-AMG EQE53 SUV.
Although the Rivian’s 850 hp R1S Tri-Motor beat the Gravity to 60 mph, Lucid’s SUV sprinted ahead in the quarter-mile, traveling nearly 20 mph faster.
It was also faster than gas-powered super SUVs, including the Lamborghini Urus Performante (11.2 secs) and Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT (11.2 secs). However, they have yet to test a Tesla Model X Plaid, so that could change the game.
In what it called the “1,000 hp mom missiles” drag race, Hagerty recently pitted the Gravity Dream Edition against the Audi RS Q8 Performance, Range Rover Sport SV, Porsche Macan Turbo Electric, Rivian R1S Quad, and Porsche Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid.
The result was a three-way tie between Lucid’s Gravity, the Porsche Panamera Turbo, and Rivian R1S Quad hitting the quarter-mile in 10.5 seconds.
The Lucid Gravity is available to order starting at $94,900 in the US. Later this year, Lucid is launching the lower-priced Touring trim, priced from $79,900.
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Solar provided over 11% of total US electrical generation in May, while wind + solar produced over one-fifth, and the mix of all renewable energy sources generated nearly 30%, according to data just released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Solar continues to set new records
Solar continues to be the fastest-growing source of US electricity, according to EIA’s latest “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through May 31, 2025), which the SUN DAY Campaign reviewed.
In May alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar (>1-megawatt (MW)) increased by 33.3% year-over-year, while “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV increased by 8.9%. Combined, they grew by 26.4% and provided over 11% of US electrical output during the month.
For the first time ever, the mix of utility-scale and small-scale solar produced more electricity than wind: solar – 38,965 gigawatt-hours (GWh); wind – 36,907-GWh.
Moreover, utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 39.8% while that from small-scale systems rose by 10.7% during the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The combination of utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by 31.1% and was nearly 8.4% of total US electrical generation for January to May – up from 6.6% a year earlier.
Solar-generated electricity easily surpassed the output of US hydropower plants (6.1%). Solar now produces more electricity than hydropower, biomass, and geothermal combined.
Wind is also on the rise in 2025
Wind produced 12.2% of US electricity in the first five months of 2025. Its output was 3.9% greater than the year before, almost double that produced by hydropower.
During the first five months of 2025, electrical generation by wind + utility-scale and small-scale solar provided 20.5% of the US total, up from 18.7% during the first five months of 2024. Solar + wind accounted for nearly 21.5% of US electrical output in May alone.
During the first five months of this year, wind and solar provided 26.2% more electricity than coal, and 15.4% more than US nuclear power plants. In May alone, the disparity increased further when solar + wind outproduced coal and nuclear power by 55.7% and 22.1%, respectively.
All renewables produced almost 30% in May
The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – produced 9.7% more electricity in January to May than they did a year ago (7.6% more in May alone) and provided 28.1% of total US electricity production compared to 26.5% 12 months earlier.
Electrical generation by all renewables in May alone provided 29.7% of total US electrical generation. Renewables’ share of electrical generation is now second only to that of natural gas, whose electrical output actually dropped by 5.9% during the month.
“Solar and wind continue to grow, set new records, and outproduce both coal and nuclear power,” said Ken Bossong, the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director. “Consequently, the ongoing Republican assault against renewables is not only misguided and illogical but also a good example of shooting oneself in the foot.”
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 96% of new US power generating capacity in first third of 2025
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Environment
Podcast: Tesla’s disturbing earnings, self-driving challenge, solid state batteries, and more
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla’s disturbing earnings, a new self-driving challenge, solid-state batteries, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:
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