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We are one month away from having college football back, with Iowa State and Kansas State kicking things off from Dublin on Aug. 23.

With games so close at hand, we asked our reporters to single out one contest for each of our post-spring Top 25 teams that could swing their season one way or the other. On paper, what is the one game that will play the biggest role in determining whether the season is a success or a dud?

Some will come in major nonconference battles over the first couple of weeks, some are more traditional league games that could set the tone for the things to come. But they’re all worth circling on your calendars and contemplating as the season nears.

Other Top 25 lists: X factors | Areas of concern | Sleepers

Swing game: vs. Oregon, Sept. 27

Among the national title contenders, Penn State will provide the fewest clues during the first portion of the schedule, which includes nonleague games against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova. But after an open week, the Lions will face their first mega test, as they host Oregon in a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten championship game. The Ducks ran the table during their first season as a league member, but they didn’t face a road test like Beaver Stadium at night. Coaches and quarterbacks are always linked, but Penn State’s James Franklin and Drew Allar will be under an especially bright spotlight as they try to reverse their big-game trend lines. A win stamps Penn State as the team to beat in the Big Ten this season, about a month before it heads to Ohio State on Nov 1. — Adam Rittenberg


Swing game: vs. LSU, Aug. 30

This one is fairly obvious. The Tigers open the season at home against LSU, a huge game that will serve to show whether all the hype surrounding Clemson is warranted. Clemson has lost three of its last four season openers, including two to another SEC school in Georgia. Winning is hugely important, but so is the way Clemson looks right out of the gate with an experienced team that returns its best playmakers on offense and some of its best defenders from a year ago. Here is why that “eye test” matters to perception: In those three season-opening losses to Georgia (2021, 2024) and Duke (2023), Clemson managed to score a combined 13 points and just one total touchdown. That simply cannot happen with Cade Klubnik entering Year 3 as the starter. — Andrea Adelson


Swing game: vs. Oklahoma at Cotton Bowl, Oct. 11

It’s always Oklahoma. It’s early October. The SEC schedule is getting under way. And no matter what, this game ends up being unpredictable and usually a dogfight. Like when the 0-4 Sooners were 22-point underdogs in John Blake’s first season in 1996, or in 2013 and 2015 when unranked Texas teams beat No. 12 and No. 10 OU teams. The last three years show the swings. In 2022, Texas won 49-0. In 2023, No. 12 Oklahoma stunned No. 3 Texas in the final seconds 34-30, then the Longhorns bounced back to crush the Sooners 34-3 last season. — Dave Wilson


Swing game: at Tennessee, Sept. 13

After hosting Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay to start the season, the Bulldogs will play an early SEC road game at Tennessee on Sept. 13. It will be a significant road test for starting quarterback Gunner Stockton and the offense playing in one of the most intimidating road environments in the SEC. The Volunteers dominated the Bulldogs throughout the 1990s, but Georgia has flipped the script, winning eight in a row and 13 of the past 15 contests in the series. The Bulldogs won each of their past four games at Neyland Stadium by at least 24 points. With a home game against Alabama coming next on the schedule, coach Kirby Smart will be looking for a similar performance at Rocky Top. — Mark Schlabach


Swing game: vs. Texas, Aug. 30

In 2006, the Buckeyes throttled Texas in Week 2 in Austin 24-7, setting the tone for Ohio State’s undefeated regular season and trip to the national title game. The Buckeyes face Texas again, this time in the opener in Columbus. The Longhorns are loaded, led by unproven but ultra-talented quarterback Arch Manning. Texas will also be aiming for revenge after falling to Ohio State in dramatic fashion during last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal. Even with so many key players off last year’s team gone, the Buckeyes can announce to the rest of college football that they remain a serious national title threat with a Week 1 victory over Manning and the Longhorns. Such an impressive nonconference win would also give Ohio State an early inside track to one of the four coveted playoff byes. — Jake Trotter


Swing game: at Clemson, Aug. 30

LSU is 0-3 in season openers under Brian Kelly. If there were a year to change that and set the table for the season, this is it. Cade Klubnik is expected by many to be among the best quarterbacks in college football this season, with Clemson primed for another run into the CFP this season. LSU looks just about as talented and ready to make a national championship push as any team in the country, but the Tigers need to look closer to their final form from the jump than they have in recent years. — Harry Lyles Jr.


Swing game: at Miami, Aug. 31

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman won’t have to wait long to learn if his team is a CFP national title contender. The Fighting Irish open the season at Miami on Aug. 31, then host Texas A&M two weeks later on Sept. 13. The opener against the Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, will be a tremendous test for Notre Dame’s new starting quarterback, presumably redshirt freshman CJ Carr. The Hurricanes have CFP aspirations of their own after adding former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, LSU receiver CJ Daniels and a plethora of defensive backs from the transfer portal. The Irish lost to Miami 41-8 in their last trip to South Florida in 2017. Notre Dame’s 23-13 victory at Texas A&M in the 2024 opener gave Freeman’s team belief it could be a CFP contender. It was a physical heavyweight fight until the Irish scored twice in the final two minutes to break open a 13-13 tie. — Mark Schlabach


Swing game: at Penn State, Sept. 27

The Ducks’ matchup in Happy Valley against Penn State in late September may just be the biggest game of their entire season. Both Oregon and Penn State are not only top-10 ranked teams heading into the year (if not top-5), they are also both legitimate national title contenders. This is also a rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game, which the Ducks won in convincing fashion. Round 2, this time in a hostile environment for the defending conference champions, will have plenty of juice. — Paolo Uggetti


Swing game: Alabama at Georgia, Sept. 27

Alabama closes the month of September by traveling to Georgia on Sept. 27, and it doesn’t figure to be a cushy first month for the Tide. They open the season at Florida State on Aug. 30 and face Wisconsin at home two weeks prior to the trip to Georgia. A loss at Georgia wouldn’t necessarily be a crippling blow, especially since Georgia hasn’t lost a game at home in five years, but winning in Athens would afford Alabama a mulligan (or two) if the Tide were to trip up the rest of the way against somebody they shouldn’t lose to. — Chris Low


Swing game: vs. West Virginia, Oct. 3

The Big 12 opener against Colorado on Sept. 27 is one to circle but it’s the next week — at home against West Virginia — that could really swing momentum one way or the other. If the Cougars start 4-0 (they play Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina in nonconference), a win here to move to 2-0 in conference play would be huge — especially since they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback and that early-season experience will matter. And if they lose to Colorado, they’ll need a win over the Mountaineers to avoid an 0-2 start, which would essentially end any hopes of building off of last year’s brilliant campaign before the season even has a chance to really get going. — Kyle Bonagura


Swing game: at Indiana, Sept. 20

The Illini face two September road tests that could shape how the rest of the season goes. Picking between Duke (Sept. 6) and Indiana (Sept. 20) is difficult, but the visit to the Hoosiers jumps out because they made the CFP last season and return several stars from a very stout defense. Cal quarterback transfer Fernando Mendoza will provide a good test for an Illinois defense that was susceptible against the pass last year, finishing 78th nationally. The Illini also have struggled lately in Bloomington, dropping their last two games there and three of the last four. A win in the Big Ten opener could propel Illinois entering a pivotal stretch that includes home games against USC and Ohio State, and a trip to Washington. — Rittenberg


Swing game: at Baylor, Sept. 20

The nonconference schedule should allow ASU to ease into 2025 a bit — the Sun Devils will likely be double-digit favorites or close to it in each of their first three games. But starting with their Week 4 trip to Baylor, things get awfully tricky. Baylor is among many aspiring Big 12 contenders, and the Bears will already be battle-tested, having begun the season with Auburn and SMU. The Big 12 spoils go to the teams that win super-close games, and on paper this one is likely to be super close. Beginning a conference title defense with a loss would be awfully ominous. — Bill Connelly


Swing game: at Texas A&M, Nov. 15

South Carolina has an absolute gauntlet of a five-game stretch in the middle of the season that starts with a trip to LSU before hosting Oklahoma and Alabama, then going on the road to Ole Miss and Texas A&M. If the Gamecocks want to make a playoff run, they’ll likely need to win at least two of those five — and maybe three, given that Missouri and Clemson are also on the docket — which could be a big ask. So what’s the pivot point? If we assume the Gamecocks can take care of business at home — a big assumption, to be sure — that means they’ll need to steal at least one on the road. Ole Miss smoked South Carolina in Columbia last year, so that could be a tall order, and winning in Baton Rouge is never easy. So that puts the focus squarely on Texas A&M. A big win on the road over the Aggies in mid-November could be a statement to the playoff committee and put South Carolina squarely in the mix for a top-12 position. — David Hale


Swing game: vs. Arizona, Sept. 27

The Hawkeyes have a Big 12 game to open the season against Kansas State, so there is no easing into the season — and that’s before factoring in Iowa coming to town Sept. 6. So Cyclones fans won’t have to wait long before having a decent sense of what to expect this year. Let’s go ahead and assume they beat South Dakota and Arkansas State and could be 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0 headed in the fifth game against Arizona. The result of that game against the Wildcats would significantly shape expectations for the rest of the way. — Bonagura


Swing game: at Clemson, Oct. 18

SMU’s schedule for the first half of the season is manageable, with home dates against Baylor and Syracuse and a road trip to TCU providing the toughest matchups. The Mustangs won’t be at a serious talent disadvantage in any of them, making a strong start to the season imperative. The back half of the schedule, however, gets much tougher, starting with the clear swing game — and a chance for revenge from last year’s ACC championship — when the Mustangs travel to Death Valley to take on Clemson on Oct. 18. That game kicks off a gauntlet that sees SMU hosting Miami and Louisville and making tough road trips to BC and Cal in the season’s final weeks. Whether SMU was a one-hit wonder in the ACC or is a power ready to compete will be determined down the stretch in 2025, with no game looming larger than the date with the Tigers. — Hale


Swing game: at Arizona State, Oct. 18.

The Red Raiders’ game in Salt Lake City against Utah could be a challenge, facing a revamped team that is always a tough out in Rice-Eccles Stadium. But Texas Tech and Arizona State are viewed as two of the clear cut favorites in the Big 12. This game comes two weeks before the Red Raiders have to go to Manhattan and face another conference contender in Kansas State. As we learned in 2024, this new-look Big 12 can be quite unpredictable. — Lyles Jr.


Swing game: at Iowa, Sept. 27

After what should be a straightforward start to the season with some nonconference matchups the Hoosiers should be able to take care of, the season ramps up with their first road trip to Iowa. While the Hawkeyes aren’t projected to be a surefire top-25 team this season, playing at Kinnick is never easy. Going into that environment and emerging with a victory could be a tone-setter for Indiana’s season in large part because of the game that precedes that matchup and the one that follows it. The conference opener against Illinois a week prior will be a tough first hurdle, while a road trip to Eugene to face Oregon after the Iowa game will be even tougher. Playing that stretch 2-1 instead of 1-2 (or even 0-3!) will be imperative. — Uggetti


Swing game: vs. Iowa State at Dublin, Aug. 23

Week 0 swing games are rarely a thing, but wow, is Farmageddon big this season. The Wildcats’ battle with Iowa State in Dublin on Aug. 23 will make the winner an automatic Big 12 front-runner and will leave the loser on wobbly ground before the official first Saturday of the 2025 campaign. With Avery Johnson entering his second year as the Wildcats’ starting quarterback, K-State has a bit more upside, and is facing a bit more pressure, than usual. Starting the season 0-1 would double that pressure. — Connelly


Swing game: at LSU, Sept. 13

Florida once again didn’t get any favors from the schedule makers, and the Gators will get an early test in Baton Rouge against LSU. On paper, this feels like a year that Brian Kelly is going to have things put together in the Bayou, in part because he’s got the coveted returning starter at QB in Garrett Nussmeier. Along with the incumbent talent, Kelly and his staff did a really good job in the transfer portal and will be a tough out every Saturday this fall. If Florida wins this game, or even loses a close one, it will bode well for the rest of the season. — Lyles Jr.


Swing game: at Oklahoma, Sept. 6

The Wolverines head to Oklahoma in Week 2 to face Sherrone Moore’s alma mater. Beating Ohio State for a fourth straight time salvaged last season for the Wolverines, who had to surge late in the year just to secure a winning record in Moore’s first full season as head coach. Michigan will have bigger expectations in 2025, especially with the arrival of five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. If the Wolverines can knock off the Sooners in Norman, they’ll be sending a statement that they’re potentially ready to contend for a playoff spot again. But if the Wolverines fall to Oklahoma, they could then have to weather a proposed two-game suspension for Moore, which includes a trip to Nebraska on Sept. 20, just to keep their postseason hopes afloat early. — Trotter


Swing game: vs. Notre Dame, Aug. 31

I am going to put a caveat on my answer here because of the way last season turned out. The season opener against Notre Dame is going to tell us plenty about where Miami stands in 2025. That starts at quarterback, where Georgia transfer Carson Beck is expected to be fully recovered from an elbow injury he sustained in the SEC championship game. Will he be able to bring the same dynamic play to the table that Cam Ward did last year to set the tone? How will the new-look receivers and revamped defense look? So much about Miami is unknown headed into this game because of the complete roster revamp, which was much needed on the defensive side. Having said that, we all thought the season would go differently for Miami a year ago after its trouncing of Florida in the season opener. For the most part, it went well, with 10 wins. But the Canes fell short of playing for a title, and that has to change sooner rather than later. — Adelson


Swing game: at Miami, Oct. 17

Louisville took Miami to the wire last year in front of the home fans, and only a disastrous performance by the secondary against Cam Ward allowed the Canes to escape with a win. This year’s rematch in south Florida will be a chance for a little revenge and, likely, an opportunity for the Cardinals to establish their playoff bona fides in a big way. While there are no guarantees, the early part of Louisville’s slate sets up nicely for the Cards to enter the Oct. 17 date with Miami at 5-0, and if they can add a win against the Canes to that résumé, there’s a good chance Louisville would be flirting with a top-10 ranking. Just as important, it would set the stage for stretch run in November that includes games against Clemson, SMU and Kentucky. — Hale


Swing game: at Notre Dame, Sept. 13

The Sept. 13 trip to Notre Dame should be a slugfest akin to last year’s 23-13 shoving match at Kyle Field. The Aggies’ offensive line has morphed from a weakness under Jimbo Fisher to a strength in two years and the Notre Dame D-line is one of the best in the country. It’s likely to be the only game in the first seven weeks of the season in which the Aggies will be an underdog, and in Year 2 of the Mike Elko era, it’s a key test to measure how ready they are to push the rest of the SEC. — Wilson


Swing game: vs. LSU, Sept. 27

Ole Miss has games before this that they shouldn’t sleep on — in Lexington in Week 2, then against Arkansas and Tulane the following weeks. But LSU appears to be one of the three best teams in the SEC heading into the season, and having this game at home is big for Ole Miss. Down the road, a more difficult task awaits on the road in Athens against Georgia, so building up a callus against the Tigers will be key. — Lyles Jr.


Swing game: vs. Michigan, Sept. 6

Four of Oklahoma’s first five games are at home, and the only road contest is at Temple on Sept. 13. But in Week 2, the Sooners could build some serious momentum when Michigan comes to town for a prime-time game. A win against the Wolverines would give the Sooners a real chance at a 5-0 start entering the Red River Showdown against Texas on Oct. 6. The back end of Oklahoma’s schedule is especially difficult (Texas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama all away from home, plus Ole Miss and LSU at home), so getting off to a good start will be critical for the Sooners. — Low

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Building the perfect trade deadline for the Mets and Phillies

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Building the perfect trade deadline for the Mets and Phillies

There’s plenty of history in the rivalry between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s about 116 miles from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park. The two teams been competing for the NL East since 1969. Star players from Tug McGraw to Jerry Koosman to Lenny Dykstra to Pedro Martinez to Zack Wheeler have played for both franchises. Mets fans loathe the Phanatic, and Phillies fans laugh derisively at Mr. Met.

Despite this longevity, the two teams have rarely battled for a division title in the same season. The only years they finished No. 1 and 2 or were battling for a division lead late in the season:

  • 1986: Mets finished 21.5 games ahead

  • 2001: Both finished within six games of the Braves

  • 2006: Mets finished 12 games ahead

  • 2007: Phillies finished one game ahead

  • 2008: Phillies finished three games ahead

  • 2024: Phillies finished six games ahead of Mets and Braves

So it’s a rare treat to see the Mets and Phillies battling for the NL East lead in as New York faces the San Francisco Giants on “Sunday Night Baseball” this week. This season has also been a bit of bumpy ride for both teams, so there is pressure on both front offices to make trade deadline additions in hopes of winning the World Series that has eluded both franchises in recent years despite high payrolls and star-laden rosters. Let’s dig into what both teams need to do before Thursday.

The perfect trade deadline for the Mets

1. Bullpen help

The Mets already acquired hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto from the Orioles, but David Stearns will likely look for another reliever, given that the Mets’ bullpen has struggled since the beginning of June with a 5.02 ERA. In my grade of the trade, I pointed out the importance for the Mets to add left-handed relief. Think of potential playoff opponents and all the key left-handed batters: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the Phillies; Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy on the Dodgers; Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong on the Cubs.

Soto has held lefties to a .138 average this season, and it does help that the Mets have two lefty starters in David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They also just activated Brooks Raley after he had been out since early 2024. If he is back to his 2022-23 form, when he had a 2.74 ERA and held lefties to a .209 average, maybe the Mets will feel good enough about their southpaw relief.

They could still use another dependable righty reliever. Mets starters were hot early on, but they weren’t going deep into games, and outside of Peterson, the lack of longer outings is a big reason the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed. Carlos Mendoza has overworked his setup guys, including Huascar Brazoban and Reed Garrett. Brazoban has never been much of a strike thrower anyway, and Garrett similarly faded in the second half last season. Adding a high-leverage righty to set up Edwin Diaz makes sense. Candidates there include David Bednar of the Pirates, Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals, Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran of the Twins, or maybe a longer shot such as Emmanuel Clase or Cade Smith of the Guardians.

2. Think big, as in Eugenio Suarez

Mark Vientos was a huge key to last season’s playoff appearance and trip to the NLCS, hitting .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs after beginning the season in Triple-A. He hasn’t been able to replicate that performance, though, hitting .224/.279/.354. That has led to a revolving door at third base, with Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio starting games there in July. Overall, Mets third basemen ranked 24th in the majors in OPS entering Friday.

Lack of production at third is one reason the Mets’ offense has been mediocre rather than very good — they’re averaging 4.38 runs per game, just below the NL average of 4.43. They could use another premium bat, given the lack of production they’ve received from center field and catcher (not to mention Francisco Lindor‘s slump since the middle of June). Maybe Francisco Alvarez‘s short stint back in Triple-A will get his bat going now that he’s back in the majors, but going after Suarez to hit behind Juan Soto and Pete Alonso would lengthen the lineup.

3. Reacquire Harrison Bader to play CF

Tyrone Taylor is a plus defender in center and has made several incredible catches, but he’s hitting .209/.264/.306 for a lowly OPS+ of 65. Old friend Bader is having a nice season with the Twins, hitting .251/.330/.435. Maybe that’s a little over his head, given that he had a .657 OPS with the Mets last season, but he would still be an offensive upgrade over Taylor without losing anything on defense — and he wouldn’t cost a top-tier prospect. The Mets could still mix in Jeff McNeil against the really tough righties, but adding Suarez and Bader would give this lineup more of a championship feel.

The perfect deadline for the Phillies

1. Acquire Jhoan Duran

Like the Mets, the Phillies already made a move here, signing free agent David Robertson, who had a 3.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 72 innings last season with the Rangers. On paper, he should help, but he’s also 40 and will need a few games in the minors to get ready. Even with Robertson, the Phillies could use some more help here. They’ll eventually get Jose Alvarado back from his 60-game PED suspension, but Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason. At least the Mets have an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. Jordan Romano leads the Phillies with eight saves and has a 6.69 ERA. Matt Strahm is solid, but more useful as a lefty setup guy than a closer (think of all those left-handed batters we listed for the Mets, then sub out Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo for Harper and Schwarber).

And the Phillies’ bullpen has consistently come up short in big games. Think back to last year’s NLDS, when Jeff Hoffman lost twice to the Mets. Or 2023, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. Or the 2022 World Series, when Yordan Alvarez hit the huge home run off Alvarado in the clinching Game 6.

So, yes, a shutdown closer is a must. Maybe that’s Bednar, maybe Clase if he’s available (although he struggled in last year’s postseason), maybe Helsley. But the guy Dave Dombrowski should go all-in to get: Duran. The window for the Phillies is slowly closing as the core players get older. Duran is under control through 2027, so he’s a fit for now and the immediate future. The trade cost might be painful, but with his 100 mph fastball and splitter, he has the elite stuff you need in October.

2. Add Ryan O’Hearn

The Phillies have received below-average production from both left field (mostly Max Kepler) and center field (Brandon Marsh/Johan Rojas platoon). The center-field market is pretty thin except for Bader or maybe a gamble on Luis Robert Jr. I’d pass on Robert, stick with the Marsh/Rojas platoon and upgrade left field with O’Hearn, who is hitting .281/.375/.452 for the Orioles. He isn’t the perfect fit since, like Kepler, he hits left-handed and struggles against lefties, but he’s a patient hitter with a much better OBP, and he’s passable in the outfield.

3. Acquire Willi Castro

Here’s the bottom line: The Phillies have to admit that some of their long-term position players aren’t getting the job done — such as second baseman Bryson Stott, who has a 77 OPS+. Third baseman Alec Bohm has been better but also has a below-average OPS.

That makes Castro a nice fit. He’s not a star, but he’s an above-average hitter, a switch-hitter who plays all over the field for the Twins, having started games at five different positions. He could play second or third or start in left field against a lefty. Philadelphia could even start him in center instead of Rojas, although that would be a defensive hit. Bottom line: Castro would give the Phillies a lot more versatility — or a significant offensive upgrade over Stott if they start him every day at second.

Note as well: Stott has hit .188 in 33 career postseason games. Bohm has hit .214 with two home runs in 34 postseason games. The Phillies need a different offensive look for October.

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Olney: The 8 teams most desperate to make a deadline deal

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Olney: The 8 teams most desperate to make a deadline deal

It would be ideal if every MLB team were so desperate to win that they would do whatever it takes. But in an industry with so many variables from team to team — roster composition, payroll commitment, market size, owner ambition, fan rabidity and history — some organizations are willing to go further and do more than others.

The New York Mets paid more in luxury taxes last season ($97 million) than the Pittsburgh Pirates have dedicated to payroll this season, and Pittsburgh could attempt to reduce salary commitments even further at this year’s trade deadline.

Some teams are more desperate than others. As we near the July 31 deadline, we present the teams most desperate to make a deal.


New York played in the World Series last year, and in a lot of markets, that might be enough to satisfy a fan base. But not with the Yankees, whose most faithful fans judge them under the George Steinbrenner Doctrine: If you don’t win the World Series, you’ve had a bad year. This is a constant.

The Yankees could return to where they were last October. The 33-year-old Aaron Judge, one of the most dynamic hitters ever, is having another historic season. New York wants to take advantage of that — particularly because the American League is wide open with as many as seven or eight AL teams having reasonable paths to the World Series.

But the Yankees still have distinct holes. They badly need an upgrade at third base, which someone like Eugenio Suarez could fill. Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt suffered season-ending elbow injuries, leaving a need for another experienced starting pitcher. Their bullpen also needs help in the sixth and seventh innings.

After the departure of Juan Soto, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman are probably under more pressure to do something this season than any of their peers. What else is new?


It’s remarkable how similar this version of the Phillies is to the teams that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski constructed in Detroit, with Philadelphia’s strong starting pitching (Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez playing the roles of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) and a lineup of sluggers (Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder).

The major question that hangs over this Philadelphia team, as was the case with those Tigers teams, is about the bullpen: Is there enough depth and power? For the Phillies, that is complicated by the situation with lefty Jose Alvarado, who will return in August from his 80-game suspension under the PED policy but not be eligible for the postseason.

The Phillies paid heavily for free agent reliever David Robertson, giving him the equivalent of a $16 million salary for the rest of the regular season, but they could use another reliever who is adept at shutting down high-end right-handed hitters in the postseason.


On the days Tarik Skubal pitches, the Tigers could be the best team in baseball; it’s possible that in the postseason, he could be his generation’s version of Orel Hershiser or Madison Bumgarner, propelling his team through round after round of playoffs to the World Series.

But the Tigers might have Skubal for only the rest of this year and next season, before he, advised by his agent Scott Boras, heads into free agency and becomes maybe the first $400 million pitcher in history.

Now is the time for Detroit to make a push for its first championship in more than four decades. And for Scott Harris, the team’s president of baseball operations, that means adding a couple of high-impact relievers capable of generating a lot of swing-and-misses.


The Mariners showed they are serious about making moves before this deadline with Thursday’s trade for first baseman Josh Naylor.

The last time the Mariners reached the league championship series, Ichiro Suzuki — who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend — was a rookie. Edgar Martinez was a 38-year-old designated hitter, and Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia were the staff aces. You get the point: It has been a really long time since the Mariners have had postseason success, and the team has never reached the World Series.

An opportunity seems to be developing for Seattle. The talented rotation, hammered by injuries in the first months of this season, could be whole for the stretch run. Cal Raleigh is having the greatest season by a catcher, contending with Judge for the AL MVP Award. Julio Rodriguez has generally been a strong second-half player.

Even ownership seems inspired: After a winter in which the Mariners spent almost nothing to upgrade the roster, other teams report that Seattle could absorb money in trades before the deadline.


5. New York Mets

Owner Steve Cohen doesn’t sport the highest payroll this year — the Dodgers’ Mark Walter is wearing that distinction — but the Mets are well over the luxury tax threshold again, in the first season after signing Juan Soto. Cohen has made it clear that generally, he will do what it takes to land the club’s first championship trophy since 1986.

But that does not include preventing David Stearns, the Mets’ respected president of baseball operations, from doing what he does best — making subtle and effective deals at the trade deadline. Rival execs expect that Stearns will work along the same lines he did last year — finding trades that improve the team’s depth without pillaging its growing farm system. That could mean adding a starting pitcher capable of starting Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series, as well as bullpen depth.

Cohen is experiencing the impact of overseeing a front office that made an impetuous win-now trade at the 2021 deadline, when the Mets swapped a minor leaguer named Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez. That clearly didn’t pan out for them. Cohen is desperate to win, but within the prescribed guardrails.


Last winter, the Padres had to live with the knowledge that they were probably the best team other than the Dodgers and that they came within a win of knocking out L.A. There is a lot about San Diego’s 2025 roster to like: Manny Machado clearly responds to a big stage, and the bullpen could be the most dominant at a time of year when relief corps often decide championships.

However, as Padres general manager A.J. Preller navigates this trade deadline in the hopes of living out late owner Peter Seidler’s dream of winning San Diego’s first World Series title, he has a relatively thin, aging, top-heavy roster with a lot of significant payroll obligations. This is why the Padres are considering trading Dylan Cease, who is potentially the highest-impact starter available on the market. Preller could move Cease to fill other roster needs, current and future ones, and then deal for a cheaper veteran starter to replace him.

“He’ll have to rob Peter to pay Paul,” one of Preller’s peers said.


Hope has emerged after the team’s all-in, $500 million signing of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with the Blue Jays taking the lead in the AL East.

Toronto’s rotation is comprised of an older group — 34-year-old Kevin Gausman, 36-year-old Chris Bassitt, 40-year-old Max Scherzer and 31-year-old Jose Berrios. Without a clear favorite in the AL, Toronto could break through for its first title since the Jays went back-to-back in 1992-93 — and in just the second season since the club’s expensive renovations of Rogers Centre were completed. When Alex Anthopoulos led the front office a decade ago, he made an all-in push to get the Jays back into the playoffs, adding players like David Price because he believed this was the right time for them to take their shot — and they came very close to getting back to the World Series.

Reportedly, Mark Shapiro — the team’s incoming president at the time — did not approve of Anthopoulos’ strategy. Now, Shapiro’s Blue Jays are in a similar situation in 2025 to where they were under Anthopoulos: Will they wheel and deal aggressively before the deadline, or will they be conservative?


The Dodgers won the World Series in 2024, after taking the title in the shortened season of 2020. So, if they don’t win a championship this year, it’s not as if a bunch of people are getting fired and the roster will be jettisoned. But winning can be intoxicating, especially when the lineup and rotation are loaded with stars: The Dodgers can envision a postseason in which a starting staff of Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could propel the team to a second consecutive title.

But the Dodgers’ bullpen — heavily worked in the first months of this season because of injuries to the rotation — is in tatters due to injuries. Will the Dodgers’ push to become the first team to repeat as champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees drive them to swap valuable prospects for needed bullpen help before the deadline? We’re about to find out.


This is a team very well-suited for the postseason: The Cubs are a strong defensive team; they have a deep lineup around Kyle Tucker, in what might be Tucker’s only season in Chicago; and they put the ball in play.

They’ve got a good farm system, as well as an experienced president of baseball operations in Jed Hoyer. He was part of championships in Boston in 2004 and 2007 and was the Cubs’ general manager for their 2016 title. He and Theo Epstein made the Nomar Garciaparra deal at the trade deadline in 2004, in advance of Boston’s breakthrough title in 2004, and the all-in trade for Aroldis Chapman on the way to the Cubs’ first World Series win in 108 years in 2016.

But the X factor for Chicago in recent years is whether ownership operates with the same desperation — in the way that Astros owner Jim Crane did when he pushed through a Justin Verlander trade for Houston in August 2017.

This seems to be a good time for the Cubs to be desperate, to do anything to win another championship. Will a title be a priority for owner Tom Ricketts?

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Schwarber reaches 1,000-hit milestone with HR

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Schwarber reaches 1,000-hit milestone with HR

NEW YORK — Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber topped Mark McGwire for most home runs among a player’s first 1,000 hits, hitting long ball No. 319 during Friday night’s 12-5 victory over the New York Yankees.

“I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not,” Schwarber said.

Ten days after lifting the National League to victory in the first All-Star Game swing-off, Schwarber keeps going deep. He hit a pair of two-run homers Friday night, with the first drive, his milestone hit, starting the comeback from a 2-0 deficit. He got the ball back after it was grabbed by a Phillies fan attending with his friends in Yankee Stadium’s right-center-field seats.

“I saw it on the video and then I see the dude tugging,” Schwarber said. “I’m like: ‘Oh, they all got Philly stuff on.’ That was cool.”

He met the trio after the game, gave an autographed ball to each and exchanged hugs. When he went to get a third ball to autograph, one of the three said he just wanted the potential free agent to re-sign with the Phillies.

“You show up to the field every single day trying to get a win at the end of the day, and I think our fans kind of latch on to that, right?” Schwarber said. “It’s been fantastic these last 3½ years, four years now. The support that we get from our fans and it means a lot to me that, you know, that they attach themselves to our team.”

Schwarber tied it at 2-2 in the fifth against Will Warren when he hit a 413-foot drive on a first-pitch fastball.

After J.T. Realmuto‘s three-run homer off Luke Weaver built a 6-3 lead in a four-run seventh and the Yankees closed within a run in the bottom half, Schwarber sent an Ian Hamilton fastball 380 feet into the right-field seats.

Schwarber reached 1,000 hits with eight more homers than McGwire. Schwarber has 36 homers this year, three shy of major league leader Cal Raleigh, and six homers in seven games since he was voted All-Star MVP. He has 33 multihomer games.

“I don’t know where we’d be without him,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “Comes up with big hit after big hit after big hit. It’s just — it’s amazing.”

Schwarber, 32, is eligible for free agency this fall after completing a four-year, $79 million contract. He homered on all three of his swings in the All-Star Game tiebreaker, and when the second half began, Phillies managing partner John Middleton proclaimed: “We love him. We want to keep him.”

“He’s been an incredible force all season long,” Realmuto said. “What he’s meant to his team, his offense, it’s hard to put in words.”

A World Series champion for the 2016 Chicago Cubs, Schwarber has reached 35 homers in all four seasons with the Phillies. He’s batting .255 with 82 RBIs and a .960 OPS.

He also has almost as many home runs as singles (46).

Schwarber had not been aware he topped McGwire for most homers among 1,000 hits.

“I had no clue. I didn’t even know it was my 1,000th, to be honest with you,” he said.

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