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People who wait longer for NHS treatment are significantly more likely to seek emergency care in the months after eventually receiving it, compared with those who are seen quickly.

People treated within 18 weeks of being on the waiting list made 18% fewer A&E visits per week in the three months following their treatment, compared to how often they visited A&E while waiting for treatment.

In contrast, people who waited over a year ended up making 31% more A&E visits in the three months following their care.

The Health Foundation, which carried out the research and shared the findings with the Sky News Data and Forensics Unit, say that the fact people need more emergency care after long waits for treatment “may indicate additional aftercare needs or decreased effectiveness of treatment following a longer wait”.

They analysed detailed patient-level data that had previously not been available for research use.

It complements new NHS data published last week which revealed the make-up of the waiting list for the first time, in terms of the gender, age, ethnicity and deprivation status of the patients on it.

Government targets being missed

One of the targets most commonly highlighted by the government is to ensure that, by the end of this parliament, fewer than 8% of patients wait longer than 18 weeks for treatment.

Currently, almost five times as many patients in England wait longer than that, with significant differences depending on where you live.

It’s the same in emergency care. The target is that fewer than 5% of people should wait longer than four hours at A&E. As it stands, one in four people wait longer than that.

The Health Foundation explained that, as well as patients having to live with the “consequences of debilitating conditions for longer”, long waits can also lead to “more complex, difficult and expensive treatment” being required.

They also “significantly increase consumption of pain relief medication”. In some cases, while waiting, conditions for the patient become permanent and untreatable.

The NHS has paid out more than £8.3bn in compensation claims for injury and deaths caused by delays in care since 2010, in addition to the extra cost to the NHS of more A&E and GP attendances.

Dr Hilary Williams, incoming clinical vice president of the Royal College of Physicians, told Sky News: “People’s health clearly deteriorates overall as they wait for treatment. For example, waiting for heart or knee treatment can lead to increased risk of worsening health due to inactivity.

“When patients are then waiting too long, their conditions can worsen and complications can occur, meaning people may end up needing emergency care even after their planned treatment. In other words, the issue with long waits isn’t just the delay itself, but the lasting health impacts that those longest waits can cause.

“Not only does this significantly impact individual patients, but it also adds further avoidable strain to an already overstretched workforce.”

Shorter waits for wealthier people, white people and men

Data released by the NHS for the first time last week also shows that women, Asian people, and those in more deprived areas are more likely to experience longer waits for NHS treatment, compared with men, white people and the least deprived.

The differences are not extreme – less than two percentage points between the top and bottom groups – but they are statistically significant.

Health Foundation analysis also reveals that Asian people are more likely to wait longer even after accounting for the age, frailty and deprivation level of patients.

The research addresses the reasons why people left the waiting list – fewer than half of people removed from the waiting list did so because they actually started treatment.

A third of people had a “decision not to treat”. This is a broad category that includes people who dropped off the NHS list to receive private care. It also includes cases where a clinician has decided that the patient’s condition can be treated in primary care.

About one in 12 people went on to “active monitoring” instead of treatment, meaning their symptoms are monitored by specialists but they are not due for further clinical intervention or diagnostics procedures.

In about one in 20 cases the patient declines treatment themselves. In about one in 200 cases, equivalent to 30,000 people on a waiting list of over six million, the patient dies while waiting for care.

A similar number are taken off the waiting list because they have missed appointments, although this figure is higher among people from more deprived areas.

Longest waits for oral surgery, shortest for elderly services

There are significant differences in wait time depending on what you’re waiting for.

More than half of patients waiting for mouth or jaw surgery wait longer than 18 weeks for treatment, compared with fewer than a third of patients referred for heart and lung or eye appointments.

The Health Foundation said that conditions that are less likely to lead to death, for example many of those associated with gynaecology or ear, nose and throat problems, had been de-prioritised as part of efforts to increase access to care after the pandemic.

They said that some treatments that typically required overnight stays had longer wait times, as capacity was more limited. In some cases, waits were longer because there was a shortage of specialists for that specific condition.

Discussing the findings of the research, Charles Tallack, Director of Research and Analysis at the Health Foundation, told Sky News: “Reducing the elective care waiting list is rightly a major government priority. But while long waits continue, it’s vital to understand the impact of those waits. The NHS should consider how to better support people on waiting lists who have higher needs and longer waiting times.

“To enable informed decisions, the NHS must make better use of the rich data already available on elective care. That includes improving the quality of data to answer questions like why people leave a waiting list – which is essential for truly understanding and addressing the backlog.”

Health and Social Care Secretary Wes Streeting said: “We inherited an NHS which after years of neglect had left all patients worse off – but some more than others.

“Sunlight is the best disinfectant. Only by being upfront and shining a light on inequalities can we begin to tackle the problem. We will give all patients the care they need when they need it as part of our Plan for Change.”

See how waits in your trust differ for cancer treatment, elective operations and emergency care with our table:


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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COVID-19 report goes a long way to answering inquiry’s critics

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COVID-19 report goes a long way to answering inquiry's critics

This scathing report goes a long way to answer the UK COVID-19 Inquiry’s critics, who have consistently attacked it as a costly waste of time.

They tried to undermine inquiry chair Lady Hallet’s attempt to understand what went wrong and how we might do better, and portray it as a lame exercise that would achieve very little.

Well, we now know that Boris Johnson’s “toxic and chaotic” government could well have prevented at least 23,000 deaths had they acted sooner and with greater urgency.

Follow latest: All four UK governments ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of COVID pandemic threat

File Pic: PA
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File Pic: PA

The response was “too little, too late”. And nobody in power truly understood the scale of the emerging threat or the urgency of the response it required.

The grieving families who lost loved ones in the pandemic want answers. They want names. And they want accountability.

But that is beyond the remit of this inquiry.

More on Boris Johnson

Read more:
‘Toxic and chaotic culture’ at centre of UK government during the pandemic
A timeline of the UK’s response to the pandemic

Everything you need to know about the COVID inquiry

The publication of the report into Module 2 of the inquiry will bring them no comfort, it may even cause them more distress.

But it will bring them closer to understanding why the UK’s response to this unprecedented health crisis was so poor.

Copies of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry's findings into decisions made by former prime minister Boris Johnson and his advisers. Pic: PA
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Copies of the UK COVID-19 Inquiry’s findings into decisions made by former prime minister Boris Johnson and his advisers. Pic: PA

We can easily identify the “advisers and ministers whose alleged rule breaking caused huge distress and undermined public confidence”.

And we know who was in charge of the Department of Health and Social Care as it misled the public by giving the impression that the UK was well prepared for the pandemic when it clearly was not.

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All four UK governments ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of COVID pandemic threat – inquiry finds

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All four UK governments 'failed to appreciate' scale of COVID pandemic threat - inquiry finds

All four UK governments failed to appreciate the scale of the threat posed by COVID-19 or the urgency of the response the pandemic required, a damning report published on Thursday has claimed.

Baroness Heather Hallett, the chair of the inquiry, described the response to the pandemic as “too little, too late”.

Tens of thousands of lives could have been saved during the first wave of COVID-19 had a mandatory lockdown been introduced a week earlier, the inquiry also found.

Noting how a “lack of urgency” made a mandatory lockdown “inevitable”, the report references modelling data to claim there could have been 23,000 fewer deaths during the first wave in England had it been introduced a week earlier.

The UK government first introduced advisory restrictions on 16 March 2020, including self-isolation, household quarantine and social distancing.

Had these measures been introduced sooner, the report states, the mandatory lockdown which followed from 23 March might not have been necessary at all.

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All four UK govts ‘failed to appreciate’ scale of pandemic

COVID-19 first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of 2019, and as it developed into a worldwide pandemic, the UK went in and out of unprecedented lockdown measures for two years starting from March 2020.

More on Covid Inquiry

Lady Hallett admitted in her summary that politicians in the government and devolved administrations were forced to make decisions where “there was often no right answer or good outcome”.

“Nonetheless,” she said, “I can summarise my findings of the response as ‘too little, too late'”.

Report goes long way to answer inquiry’s critics

This scathing report goes a long way to answer the Covid 19 Inquiry’s critics who have consistently attacked it as a costly waste of time.

They tried to undermine Lady Hallet’s attempt to understand what went wrong and how we might do better as a lame exercise that would achieve very little.

Well, we now know that Boris Johnson’s “toxic and chaotic” government could well have prevented at least 23,000 deaths had they acted sooner and with greater urgency.

The response was “too little, too late”. And that nobody in power truly understood the scale of the emerging threat or the urgency of the response it required.

The grieving families who lost loved ones in the pandemic want answers. They want names. And they want accountability.

But that is beyond the remit of this Inquiry.

The publication of the report into Module 2 will bring them no comfort, it may even cause them more distress but it will bring them closer to understanding why the UK’s response to this unprecedented health crisis was so poor.

And we can easily identify the “advisors and ministers whose alleged rule breaking caused huge distress and undermined public confidence”.

Or who was in charge of the Department of Health and Social Care, as it misled the public by giving the impression that the UK was well prepared for the pandemic when it clearly was not.

‘Toxic culture’ at the heart of UK government

The report said there was “a toxic and chaotic culture” at the heart of the UK government during the pandemic.

The inquiry heard evidence about the “destabilising behaviour of a number of individuals” – including former No 10 adviser Dominic Cummings.

It said that by failing to tackle this chaotic culture – “and, at times, actively encouraging it” – former PM Boris Johnson “reinforced a culture in which the loudest voices prevailed and the views of other colleagues, particularly women, often went ignored, to the detriment of good decision-making”.

‘Misleading assurances’

The inquiry found all four governments in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland failed to understand the urgency of response the pandemic demanded in the early part of 2020.

The report reads: “This was compounded, in part, by misleading assurances from the Department of Health and Social Care and the widely held view that the UK was well prepared for a pandemic.”

The report notes how the UK government took a “high risk” when it significantly eased restrictions in England in July 2020 – “despite scientific advisers’ concerns about the public health risks of doing so”.

Lady Hallett has made 19 key recommendations which, if followed, she believes will better protect the UK in any future pandemic and improve decision-making in a crisis.

Repeated failings ‘inexcusable’

In a statement following the publication of Thursday’s report, Lady Hallett said there was a “serious failure” by all four governments to appreciate the level of “risk and calamity” facing the UK.

She said: “The tempo of the response should have been increased. It was not. February 2020 was a lost month.”

Read more:
A timeline of the UK’s response to the pandemic

Lady Hallett said the inquiry does not advocate for national lockdowns, which she said should have been avoided if at all possible.

She said: “But to avoid them, governments must take timely and decisive action to control a spreading virus. The four governments of the UK did not.”

Lady Hallett said none of the governments were adequately prepared for the challenges and risks that a lockdown presented, and that many of the same failings were repeated later in 2020, which she said was “inexcusable”.

She added: “Each government had ample warning that the prevalence of the virus was increasing and would continue to do so into the winter months. Yet again, there was a failure to take timely and effective action.”

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

Fresh yellow weather warnings for ice have been issued for many areas of the UK, as some areas are threatened with blizzard conditions on Thursday.

An amber warning for snow – covering northeast England, including Scarborough, Whitby and parts south of Middlesbrough – is in force until 9pm on Thursday.

UK weather latest: Blizzard warning for amber area

The Met Office said there could be “significant snow accumulations” over the North York Moors and parts of the Yorkshire Wolds with up to 25cm (10ins) on hills above 100m (330ft).

“Gusty winds, giving occasional blizzard conditions, and perhaps a few lightning strikes, may accompany some of the showers, posing as additional hazards,” the warning added.

Some A-roads in North Yorkshire were reported to be “gridlocked”, according to Shingi Mararike, Sky News’ North of England correspondent, but he added gritters are out to deal with the bad weather.

A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA
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A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA

The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA
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The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA

Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA
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Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA

Snow ploughs have been hard at work on the North York Moors and a thick coat of snow is covering the A169 between Pickering and Whitby.

More on Uk Weather

Dozens of schools have been closed in North Yorkshire and Scotland.

Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office
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Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office

A number of yellow warnings are also in force for snow and/or ice across large parts of Britain.

In many of the warnings issued by the Met Office, there are concerns that where “showers persist and/or snow partially thaws and then refreezes overnight, this will bring a risk of ice”.

Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office
Image:
Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office

Jo Wheeler, Sky’s weather presenter, said clear skies will allow temperatures to tumble again as Thursday night approaches, “with an early and severe frost expected, and the associated risk of icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements”.

Coldest night so far

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday was the coldest of the season so far, according to the Met Office.

Temperatures dropped as low as -6.6C (20F) in Benson, Oxfordshire. There were two -6.4C (20F) temperatures recorded in Wales (in Sennybrigde) and in Scotland (Dundreggan).

While in Northern Ireland it fell to -2.8C (27F) in Altnahinch Filters.

Cold health alerts in force

As well as the one amber weather warning covering parts of the UK, there are two amber health alerts in place in three areas of England from the UK’s Health Security Agency.

An amber health alert is designed to prepare health services, including for the potential for a rise in deaths among the over-65s and people with health conditions.

The alerts are in effect in North East and North West England, along with the Yorkshire and the Humber region until 8am on 22 November.

Yellow cold-health alerts are in place for the rest of England and also expire at the same point.

Walk like a penguin

NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGGC) is recommending that people should walk like penguins to avoid dangerous slips and trips on icy surfaces.

The technique, which went viral in previous winters, is back for 2025 as part of the health board’s winter campaign.

Laura Halcrow, falls prevention lead at NHSGGC, said: “It might look funny, but waddling really works. A slip on ice can cause painful injuries and even hospital stays, especially for older people.”

Turning wet and windy

Sky’s weather presenter, Jo Wheeler, adds that the forecast is set to change this weekend.

“We’ll trade the cold sunshine and wintry showers for wet and windy conditions with rain turning heavy as it crosses the country on Saturday.”

“The British weather, fickle as always, looks like delivering a brief change to this milder westerly flow followed by an equally quick change back to a chilly northerly flow.”

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