Impact of long NHS waits on patients revealed, plus who waits longest
People who wait longer for NHS treatment are significantly more likely to seek emergency care in the months after eventually receiving it, compared with those who are seen quickly.
People treated within 18 weeks of being on the waiting list made 18% fewer A&E visits per week in the three months following their treatment, compared to how often they visited A&E while waiting for treatment.
In contrast, people who waited over a year ended up making 31% more A&E visits in the three months following their care.
The Health Foundation, which carried out the research and shared the findings with the Sky News Data and Forensics Unit, say that the fact people need more emergency care after long waits for treatment “may indicate additional aftercare needs or decreased effectiveness of treatment following a longer wait”.
They analysed detailed patient-level data that had previously not been available for research use.
It complements new NHS data published last week which revealed the make-up of the waiting list for the first time, in terms of the gender, age, ethnicity and deprivation status of the patients on it.
Government targets being missed
One of the targets most commonly highlighted by the government is to ensure that, by the end of this parliament, fewer than 8% of patients wait longer than 18 weeks for treatment.
Currently, almost five times as many patients in England wait longer than that, with significant differences depending on where you live.
It’s the same in emergency care. The target is that fewer than 5% of people should wait longer than four hours at A&E. As it stands, one in four people wait longer than that.
The Health Foundation explained that, as well as patients having to live with the “consequences of debilitating conditions for longer”, long waits can also lead to “more complex, difficult and expensive treatment” being required.
They also “significantly increase consumption of pain relief medication”. In some cases, while waiting, conditions for the patient become permanent and untreatable.
The NHS has paid out more than £8.3bn in compensation claims for injury and deaths caused by delays in care since 2010, in addition to the extra cost to the NHS of more A&E and GP attendances.
Dr Hilary Williams, incoming clinical vice president of the Royal College of Physicians, told Sky News: “People’s health clearly deteriorates overall as they wait for treatment. For example, waiting for heart or knee treatment can lead to increased risk of worsening health due to inactivity.
“When patients are then waiting too long, their conditions can worsen and complications can occur, meaning people may end up needing emergency care even after their planned treatment. In other words, the issue with long waits isn’t just the delay itself, but the lasting health impacts that those longest waits can cause.
“Not only does this significantly impact individual patients, but it also adds further avoidable strain to an already overstretched workforce.”
Shorter waits for wealthier people, white people and men
Data released by the NHS for the first time last week also shows that women, Asian people, and those in more deprived areas are more likely to experience longer waits for NHS treatment, compared with men, white people and the least deprived.
The differences are not extreme – less than two percentage points between the top and bottom groups – but they are statistically significant.
Health Foundation analysis also reveals that Asian people are more likely to wait longer even after accounting for the age, frailty and deprivation level of patients.
The research addresses the reasons why people left the waiting list – fewer than half of people removed from the waiting list did so because they actually started treatment.
A third of people had a “decision not to treat”. This is a broad category that includes people who dropped off the NHS list to receive private care. It also includes cases where a clinician has decided that the patient’s condition can be treated in primary care.
About one in 12 people went on to “active monitoring” instead of treatment, meaning their symptoms are monitored by specialists but they are not due for further clinical intervention or diagnostics procedures.
In about one in 20 cases the patient declines treatment themselves. In about one in 200 cases, equivalent to 30,000 people on a waiting list of over six million, the patient dies while waiting for care.
A similar number are taken off the waiting list because they have missed appointments, although this figure is higher among people from more deprived areas.
Longest waits for oral surgery, shortest for elderly services
There are significant differences in wait time depending on what you’re waiting for.
More than half of patients waiting for mouth or jaw surgery wait longer than 18 weeks for treatment, compared with fewer than a third of patients referred for heart and lung or eye appointments.
The Health Foundation said that conditions that are less likely to lead to death, for example many of those associated with gynaecology or ear, nose and throat problems, had been de-prioritised as part of efforts to increase access to care after the pandemic.
They said that some treatments that typically required overnight stays had longer wait times, as capacity was more limited. In some cases, waits were longer because there was a shortage of specialists for that specific condition.
Discussing the findings of the research, Charles Tallack, Director of Research and Analysis at the Health Foundation, told Sky News: “Reducing the elective care waiting list is rightly a major government priority. But while long waits continue, it’s vital to understand the impact of those waits. The NHS should consider how to better support people on waiting lists who have higher needs and longer waiting times.
“To enable informed decisions, the NHS must make better use of the rich data already available on elective care. That includes improving the quality of data to answer questions like why people leave a waiting list – which is essential for truly understanding and addressing the backlog.”
Health and Social Care Secretary Wes Streeting said: “We inherited an NHS which after years of neglect had left all patients worse off – but some more than others.
“Sunlight is the best disinfectant. Only by being upfront and shining a light on inequalities can we begin to tackle the problem. We will give all patients the care they need when they need it as part of our Plan for Change.”
See how waits in your trust differ for cancer treatment, elective operations and emergency care with our table:
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Victims of grooming gangs and modern slavery are being denied compensation by a government scheme because of their criminal records, Sky News has learned.
Analysis of official figures by Sky News’ Data & Forensics team shows more than 11,000 victims of crime over the last decade have been denied payouts because of their unspent convictions, including children.
The Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority can award money to victims of violent crime, including sexual abuse.
It is the only government compensation scheme for victims – for those unable to work due to injuries, the money can be vital.
But, if an applicant has a criminal record, they are automatically refused compensation with limited exceptions.
Those with unspent convictions sometimes receive reduced sums.
Sky News has found that at least 130 children with criminal records have received reduced awards over the last 10 years, including 50 victims of sex abuse, four victims of brain damage, and one child who lost sight in an eye.
This rule on unspent convictions is based on the idea that public funds should only compensate blameless victims of crime and not, for example, a gang member who was injured in a fight.
But many argue the policy punishes those who have been forced to offend by exploiters, as well as victims of child sexual abuse.
‘I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed’
Arthur Sherry, 43, from Perranporth in Cornwall was regularly abused by his babysitter from the age of five, including suffering rape.
In 2008, he reported it to Devon and Cornwall Police, alongside two other victims. He alleges the police did not believe him, and charges were not brought against his abuser.
Arthur Sherry, who was abused as a child, says he was denied compensation because of his criminal record
Arthur became angry and descended into addiction as a “coping mechanism”, becoming suicidal, and was repeatedly arrested for minor offences, such as making false calls to the emergency services.
“I wasn’t getting support from any agencies, and no one asked me, ‘Why is this man ringing the emergency services all the time?'”
“It was a cry for help. I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed.”
Eventually, Arthur’s abuser, Shaun Burton, was convicted of multiple offences against children, including 11 counts of indecency with a child in relation to Mr Sherry.
But when Arthur, who suffers from complex PTSD, subsequently tried to make a claim through the Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority in 2013, it was rejected because of his criminal record and because he submitted his application beyond CICA’s time limit.
He was not allowed to appeal the decision.
Arthur, aged 12 in the picture, was regularly abused by his babysitter, Shaun Burton, from the age of five
Many survivors of grooming gangs have criminal records due to being exploited and coerced.
While the government recently announced plans to disregard child prostitution convictions for these victims, many are urging authorities to go further and pardon all related offences.
Former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird said: “They were not exercising their own free will and voluntarily committing crime, so there should be a discretion to look at that and say, ‘No, that wasn’t their fault’.
“They should get compensation for all the evil that was done to them by that gang.”
In 2022, the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse recommended that the government amend the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme so that “applicants with unspent convictions are not automatically excluded where offences are likely to be linked to the circumstances of their sexual abuse as a child”.
The government has refused to act on this recommendation.
However, Labour MP Sarah Champion has tabled an amendment to the upcoming Victims and Courts Bill, hoping to implement it, as well as widen eligibility to the scheme.
“Victims are seen as running a cannabis farm and get a conviction, before it actually turns out that they were a victim of modern slavery.
“These people, who are very clearly recognised as victims and survivors, aren’t getting the money that’s owed to them. The system is broken and the ministers need to get rid of it.”
‘I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed,’ Arthur tells Sky News’ Alice Porter
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A government spokesperson said: “Last year, more than £164m was paid out under the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme to victims, and we are going further by removing the time limit for civil personal injury claims and doubling Home Office funding for services supporting adult victims and survivors of child sexual abuse.
“Changes to the way we compensate victims have been considered by successive governments, and our priority must always be to treat all victims of violence equally.”
Devon and Cornwall Police said: “Tackling sexual offending is a key priority for Devon & Cornwall Police and we are working hard to bring offenders to justice.
“We take reports of all sexual offences seriously and will carry out thorough investigations into reports, looking at all viable lines of enquiry.”
Nathan Gill was at Manchester airport, about to board a flight to Russia, when accepting bribes finally caught up with him.
Gill, the former leader of Reform UK Wales and a one-time member of the European Parliament, who on Friday was jailed for 10-a-half-years, was stopped by police before boarding and had his phone seized in 2021.
While they interrogated him, his home in Anglesey was raided, with detectives discovering more electronics and cash piles of €5,000 (£4,400) and $5,000 (£3,800) respectively.
Nathan Gill being questioned. Pic: Met Police
The evidence on Gill’s phone would damn him – he was in contact with a pro-Russian politician in Ukraine, Oleg Voloshyn, and had agreed to boost pro-Russia viewpoints in exchange for money.
Voloshyn would dictate the statement, and Gill would repeat it – in some cases, almost word for word – in the media or the European Parliament.
In one instance, Gill appeared on the now-banned Ukrainian TV channel, 112 Ukraine, which was known for its pro-Russian stance.
In the interview, he was critical of the Ukrainian decision to open criminal proceedings against Viktor Medvedchuk, the owner of the television channel and a personal friend of Vladimir Putin.
Nathan Gill. Pic: Met Police
Speaking to the outlet, he said he was “very concerned” about the investigation, and wondered whether it was meant to silence “opposition politicians”.
Prosecutors said messages on Gill’s phone showed that this was at his paymaster’s instruction, with Voloshyn offering a “reward” if he would say that it was unacceptable to persecute a person for their political convictions.
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Voloshyn also offered the MEP €2,000 (£1,750) if he would express concern that Mr Medvedchuk could no longer mediate with Russia on Ukraine’s behalf, the court heard.
He added that “V” – understood to be Mr Medvedchuk – did not believe Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had “true intentions to pursue a peace agenda”, prosecutors said.
Bundles of cash were recovered from Gill’s home. Pic: Met Police
Sure enough, Gill appeared on 112 Ukraine saying it was “very sad” that Mr Medvedchuk felt he no longer had Mr Zelensky’s backing to act as a mediator with Russia, and suggested that using him “would be a sensible thing to do”.
The messages traded in innuendo, referring to the exchange of “Xmas gifts” or “postcards” instead of money.
But as the pair grew more comfortable with each other, they bargained more explicitly, with the sum of “£5k” quoted for Gill’s work.
Dominic Murphy, head of Counter Terrorism Command at the Met Police, said Gill had also offered access to other MEPs.
“This is where we get into that slightly odd situation where it feels very much like a real effort to undermine democracy here,” he said.
“This is Nathan Gill reaching out to individuals that he knows, who are Brits, who might be willing to be paid to go and make speeches.”
Commander Murphy declined to name names, but said there was an ongoing investigation and that other people had been spoken to.
None of the pro-Brexit MEPs Gill allegedly approached have been interviewed under caution.
Pic: Met Police
Police confirmed there was no evidence to suggest Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was involved.
Gill was stopped at Manchester Airport on 13 September 2021, under schedule 3 of the Counter Terrorism and Borders Security Act 2019.
He offered police no explanation for his actions and answered no comment in a March 2022 police interview.
But the 52-year-old is believed to have had financial problems.
Mr Murphy added that while Gill appeared to have pro-Russian sympathies, he was primarily motivated by money.
The ex-MEP has been jailed for 10-and-a-half years after pleading guilty to eight counts of bribery between December 2018 and July 2019.
Following an investigation by counter-terrorism police, officers said they believe Gill likely took a minimum of £40,000 in cash and was offering to introduce other British MEPs so they could be bribed.
Voloshyn was picked up by the authorities on a trip to the US in 2021, which enabled the FBI to discover his end of the conversation.
He is now believed to be in Russia, but has been sanctioned by the UK government over allegations of trying to destabilise Ukraine.
Nathan Gill pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery over pro-Russian statements. Including to media outlet 112 Ukraine. Pic: Met Police
He remains wanted in both Britain and Ukraine.
A Reform UK spokesman said: “Mr Gill’s actions were reprehensible, treasonous and unforgivable.
“We are glad that justice has been served and fully welcome the sentence Nathan Gill has received.”
Mr Farage, the Reform UK leader, said: “An investigation into Russian and Chinese influence over British politics would be welcome.”
The MP for Clacton previously described his former colleague as a “bad apple” and said he was “shocked” after Gill pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery.
He said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.
“You can never, ever guarantee 100% that everyone you meet in your life, you shake hands with in the pub, is a good person.”
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