It is a trade deal that will “rebalance, but enable trade on both sides,” said Ursula von der Leyen after the EU and US struck a trade deal in Scotland.
It was not the most emphatic declaration by the president of the European Commission.
The trading partnership between two of the biggest markets in the world is in significantly worse shape than it was before Donald Trump was elected, but this deal is better than nothing.
As part of the agreement, European exports to the US will be hit with a 15% tariff. That’s better than the 30% the bloc was threatened with but it is a world away from the type of open and free trade European leaders would like. The EU had offered tariff free trade to the US just weeks before the deal was announced.
Instead, it has accepted a 15% tariff and agreed to ramp up its energy purchases from the US.
The EU tariff on US imports will remain close to zero but Europe did get some important exemptions – on aviation, critical raw materials, some chemicals and some medical equipment. That being said, the bloc did not achieve a breakthrough on steel, aluminium or copper, which are still facing a 50% tariff. It means the average tariff on EU exports to the US will now rise from 1.2 % last year to 17%.
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There is also confusion over the status of pharmaceuticals – an important industry to Europe. Products like Ozempic, which is made in Denmark, have flooded into the US market in recent years and Donald Trump was threatening tariffs as high as 50% on the sector.
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8:58
US and EU agree trade deal
It appears that pharmaceuticals will fall under the 15% bracket, even though President Trump contradicted official announcements by suggesting a deal had not yet been made on the industry. The risk is that the implementation of the deal could be beset with differences of interpretation, as has been the case with the Japan deal that Trump struck last week.
It also risks fracturing solidarity between EU states, all of which have different strategic industries that rely on the US to differing degrees. Germany’s BDI federation of industrial groups said: “Even a 15% tariff rate will have immense negative effects on export-oriented German industry.”
The VCI chemical trade association said rates were still “too high”. For German carmakers, including Mercedes and BMW, there was some reprieve from the crippling 27.5% tariff imposed by Trump. The industry is Europe’s top exporter to the US but the German trade body, the VDA, warned that a 15% rate would “cost the German automotive industry billions annually”.
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Who’s the winner in the US-EU trade deal?
Meanwhile, François Bayrou, the French Prime Minister, described the agreement as a “dark day” for the union, “when an alliance of free peoples, gathered to affirm their values and defend their interests, resolves to submission.”
While the deal has divided the bloc, the greater certainty it delivers is not to be snubbed at.
Markets bounced on the news, even though the deal will ultimately harm economic growth.
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‘Millions’ of EU jobs were in firing line
Analysts at Oxford Economics said: “We don’t plan material changes to our eurozone baseline forecast of 1.1% GDP growth this year and 0.8% in 2026 in response to the EU-US trade deal.
“While the effective tariff rate will end up at around 15%, a few percentage points higher than in our baseline, lower uncertainty and no EU retaliation are partial offsets.”
However, economists at Capital Economics said the economic outlook had now deteriorated, with growth in the bloc likely to drop by 0.2%. Germany and Ireland could be the hardest hit.
While the US appears to be the obvious winner in this negotiation, uncertainty still hangs over the US economy.
Trump has not achieved his goal of “90 deals in 90 days” and, in the end, American consumers could still bear the cost through higher prices.
That of course depends on how businesses share the burden of those higher costs, with the latest data suggesting that inflation is yet to rip through the US economy. While Europe determined on Sunday that a bad deal is better than no deal, some fear that the worst is yet to come for the Americans.
There was some speculation, when it emerged that Nigel Farage was heading to Threadneedle Street to see the Bank of England governor, that he was about to “do a Trump”.
You might recall, if you follow American politics, how the US president has been, for want of a better word, trolling the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, threatening to fire him if he didn’t cut interest rates. Might Mr Farage and Reform be about to do the same thing in the UK, raising deep (and, for economists, scary) questions about the independence of the central bank?
The short answer, as far as anyone can tell following today’s meeting, is: no. Instead, Mr Farage and his fellow Reform MP Richard Tice enjoyed a relatively cordial meeting with the governor, where they discussed the intricacies of quantitative easing, the Bank’s reserves policies and even cryptocurrency – a slightly unexpected addition to the agenda which might reflect the fact that Reform is hoping to raise lots of campaign funds from crypto dudes.
The main Bank-related issue Reform has been campaigning on – Mr Tice in particular – comes back to something seemingly arcane but certainly important. As you may be aware, in recent years, the Bank of England has, alongside its interest rate policy, been engaged in something called quantitative easing (QE). QE is complex, but it boils down to this: in an effort to boost the economy, the Bank bought up a lot of government bonds and they now sit awkwardly in its balance sheet. In recent months, the Bank has begun to reverse QE (quantitative tightening) – selling off billions of pounds of bonds.
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8:53
Bank of England’s £134bn gamble
Anyway, reach deeper into the arcane mechanism of how QE works and something interesting leaps out. Two things, actually. First, as part of QE, in order to get hold of those government bonds, the Bank created “reserves” – sort of bank-account-at-the-Bank-of-England – for the high street banks from whom it bought them.
Tens of billions to high street banks
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Those reserves earn interest at the Bank’s official interest rate. At the time of QE, the rate was near zero, so no one spent much time thinking about reserves. But since then, rates went up to 5.25%, and are now at 4%, and hence the Bank has recently been paying out a hefty amount – tens of billions of pounds – in interest to high street banks.
Image: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (left) and deputy leader Richard Tice speaking to the media outside the Bank Of England in central London. Pic: PA
This, says Richard Tice, is an abomination. In the last Reform manifesto, he said the Bank should stop paying out those reserves. Which, on the face of it, sounds perfectly sensible. However, there are a few catches.
A big bank tax
The first is that while in theory it might help recoup billions of pounds of public money, that money has to come from somewhere, and in this case, it would come from high street banks. In other words, this is, in all but name, a very big bank tax. The Bank of England’s point, when asked about all this, is that if anyone is going to do something like that, it should really be the government, since it’s rightly in charge of taxing and spending.
The other catch is that Bank of England reserves systems are desperately complex. Changing the way they’re structured is a delicate operation. Running a coach and horses through it, as Mr Tice is suggesting, could have all sorts of unintended consequences, including undermining confidence in UK economic policy.
This, by the way, is not the only thing Reform is unhappy about: they also think the Bank should slow down its quantitative tightening programme.
But the point of all the above is that while there are some big question marks about the particular idea Reform is proposing, the worst thing of all would be not to discuss this as publicly as possible.
The worst outcome of all would be for the government and Bank to take certain decisions which affect billions of pounds of public money with only the merest of scrutiny, save at the Treasury Select Committee, whose sessions rarely get much attention beyond the financial pages. And that is more or less the situation we’ve had for the past decade and a half.
The Bank of England has introduced one of the most radical monetary experiments in history, which may or may not have been a success or a failure, but few outside of the City are even aware of it. Mr Tice’s policy platform may be flawed, but his overarching point – that this stuff desperately needs more scrutiny – is quite right.
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) “failed to finalise” a cyber insurance deal before it was struck by hackers last month, forcing a halt to production and threatening the future of its supply chain, according to an industry journal.
The Insurer, citing three insurance sector sources, said Britain’s biggest carmaker was still in negotiations over cover before the cyber attack at the end of August.
It opens the prospect that the company faces footing the bill for the hacking by itself.
Losses will easily run into many hundreds of millions of pounds, with its global factory shutdown set to last for a month at least.
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4:27
JLR shutdown extended
Marks and Spencer, which was targeted back in April, said it expected that the estimated £300m bill it was facing from the disruption would be largely offset by the cyber insurance cover it had taken out.
As frantic efforts continue at JLR to recover its systems, the government is exploring ways to support JLR’s supply chain and the 200,000 jobs within it.
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One idea under consideration, according to ITV News, was taxpayer money being used to purchase parts.
These components could then be sold back to JLR as its manufacturing operations got back up to speed, resulting in no direct losses for the public purse.
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Inside factory affected by Jaguar Land Rover shutdown
The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many suppliers had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its manufacturing freeze.
Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.
Union demands for a COVID-style furlough scheme have not been taken up by ministers, who have said that support to date has come only from JLR.
Industry minister Chris McDonald said on a visit to a West Midlands manufacturer on Tuesday he was “supremely confident” that JLR would get through the cyber attack.
He added: “What I really want this to be is a wake-up call to British industry. I’m affronted by this attack on British industry. This is a serious attack on a flagship of British industry.”
Jaguar Land Rover said it declined to comment on commercial matters.
The government has also been approached for comment.
While the mutual had insurance cover for operational disruption, it did not have a policy to meet full losses arising from a cyber incident.
It further revealed that the total profit damage was expected to nudge £120m over its full financial year.
Co-op was among several retailers hit in April, including M&S, and iall its members had data stolen.
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Image: A Co-op Group store is shown in Manchester during the height of the cyber attack disruption. Pic: PA
In-store, customers faced problems making payments initially and latterly empty shelves as the group struggled to restore control of key systems.
It prioritised rural stores for limited deliveries until stocks recovered in late May.
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July: Four arrested over M&S, Co-Op and Harrods cyber attacks
Co-op chair Debbie White said: “The first half of 2025 brought significant challenges, most notably from a malicious cyber attack.
“Our balance sheet strength and the magnificent response of our 53,000 colleagues enabled us to maintain vital services for our members and their communities.
“We must now build our Co-op back better and stronger to meet the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.”
The attacks on the retailers, which have resulted in four arrests, have brought the insurance issue to the fore as Jaguar Land Rover battles the impact of a similar attack.
Its factories are currently on track to produce nothing for at least a month and the government is now actively considering some kind of taxpayer support for its vast supply chain.
It has been reported that it was in discussions over cyber cover when its systems came under attack at the end of August.
Like the Co-op, it leaves the company facing the prospect of meeting many of the costs itself.
M&S put a £300m cost on the ransomware attack on its own systems ahead of Easter but expects to claw much of that money back through insurance payouts.
The government has this week described the run of hacking attempts as a further wake up call to the business community and urged continued investment in cyber security.