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At the weekend, Downing Street said recognition of Palestine was “a matter of when, not if”.

So why now?

“We will recognise the state of Palestine in September before the United Nations General Assembly”, Sir Keir Starmer announced on Tuesday, in what looks like another U-turn.

Politics latest: PM’s Palestine plan ‘absurd’

Was it pressure from the more than 250 MPs, most of whom are Labour, who wrote to the prime minister last week calling for recognition? Almost certainly.

The PM has a lot of form now for bowing to pressure from Labour MPs poised to rebel against government policy.

The demand to the PM in the letter orchestrated by Labour MP Sarah Champion, who chairs the all-party international development select committee, was for the government to recognise Palestine at the United Nations conference on the Middle East currently taking place in New York.

More on Gaza

Foreign Secretary David Lammy was cheered and applauded when he repeated the pledge made by Sir Keir in a near-empty room in Downing Street to TV cameras and just two journalists.

But there are conditions. And the early response from the Israelis was not encouraging.

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Lammy: ‘Time to abate suffering of Palestinians in Gaza’

First, the PM said, “end the appalling situation in Gaza“, then “a ceasefire, no annexation in the West Bank and a long-term peace process that delivers a two-state solution”.

Good luck, as they say, with that.

If the shift in the PM’s position wasn’t the result of pressure from MPs, was it a potential mutiny inside the cabinet?

It followed a lengthy cabinet meeting after ministers were dragged from their sun beds and allowed to dial in remotely rather than turn up at 10 Downing Street in person.

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Trump: ‘Real stavation in Gaza’

It was reported before the meeting that seven cabinet ministers, including big hitters Mr Lammy and the Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, backed recognising Palestine.

So yes, the PM could see that the way cabinet ministers were moving and holding out against recognition was becoming unsustainable.

Was it the result of pressure from President Macron. That was certainly a major factor too. After “le bromance” during the president’s state visit, the two leaders spoke at length at the weekend.

Asked what difference recognising Palestine would make in practice, Sir Keir said the aim was that it would help improve conditions on the ground in Gaza.

Read more:
British Palestinians attack PM’s plan
Explainer: Recognising a Palestinian state?
Gaza children ‘eating out of piles of garbage’

Ahead of his statement, the PM briefed Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the King of Jordan, whose country is spearheading the air drops of aid into Gaza. More phone calls with world leaders are planned in the coming hours.

Sir Keir wouldn’t answer a question about what assurances he’d received from President Trump during their talks in Scotland about using his influence with the Israeli PM to allow aid into Gaza.

That is the most urgent priority, as the PM acknowledged. And since President Trump, speaking about the horrible TV pictures from Gaza, memorably said “you can’t fake that” and “every ounce of food” should be allowed in, it seems he did indeed listen to Sir Keir’s pleas in Scotland.

So even if he has indeed bowed to pressure from MPs and cabinet ministers, Sir Keir has achieved a significant breakthrough in the past 48 hours or so.

He won’t please everyone, obviously, but no politician ever did in the Middle East.

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

Read more:
Jobs market continues to slow
Banks step up lobbying over threat of tax hikes

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Unlimited leverage and sentiment-driven valuations create cascading liquidations that wipe billions overnight. Crypto’s maturity demands systematic discipline.

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NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

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NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

The executive order creating the Office of Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology under the New York City government came three months before Eric Adams will leave office.

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