Trump’s EU trade deal is based on massive energy purchases that are unlikely to materialize, analysts say

Published

13 hours ago

July 29, 2025

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U.S. President Donald Trump looks on, during a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (not pictured), after an announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and EU, in Turnberry, Scotland, Britain, July 27, 2025.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

President Donald Trump’s massive energy deal with the European Union will be difficult to implement, setting Washington and Brussels up for a potential future confrontation over tariffs and trade.

The EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy and invest $600 billion in the U.S. by 2028, according to the White House. In exchange, Trump has agreed to a tariff of 15% on EU goods excluding steel and aluminum, which is half the 30% rate that he had threatened.

But the $600 billion investment in the U.S. is not binding on EU member states or companies. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, simply said that companies “have expressed interest in investing at least” that amount in the U.S by 2029.

The massive energy purchases in the deal are unrealistic due to market and political constraints, analysts said. The EU cannot force member states and companies to buy U.S. energy just as the Trump administration cannot force producers to sell to Europe, said Mathieu Utting, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

“This is non-binding. It’s a pledge,” said Erik Brattberg, an expert on Europe at the Atlantic Council, a think-tank with a focus on international affairs. “The EU itself doesn’t buy energy. It would be member states or companies from member states.”

A White House official told CNBC on Tuesday that Trump expects the EU to abide by its commitments under the deal.

“That is what the EU agreed to purchase,” the official said. “The President reserves the right to adjust tariff rates if any party reneges.”

The energy purchases are divided into $250 billion annual installments over the rest of Trump’s term, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters Sunday. The EU is pledging significant purchases U.S. oil, liquified natural gas (LNG) and nuclear fuel to replace Russian fossil fuels, von der Leyen said.

But it is unclear how much EU member states and companies intend to buy of each fuel type. “Details have to be sorted out and that will happen over the next weeks,” von der Leyen told reporters.

Tripling U.S. exports unrealistic

EU member states bought about $80 billion U.S. oil, liquified natural gas, liquified petroleum gas and coal from the U.S. in 2024, according to data from Kpler. The bloc would have to triple its purchases of U.S. energy to meet the $250 billion annual purchase target laid out in the agreement.

“If this deal were to be realized, we’d be talking about the United States providing the lion’s share of European energy imports,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC on Monday. EU energy imports totaled $433 billion in 2024 , according to Eurostat.

Increasing U.S. oil exports to the EU is difficult because production is flat and will likely decline in the coming months, said Svetlana Tretyakova, an oil analyst at Rystad.

U.S. companies would have to reroute exports from customers in Asia and Latin America to the EU, Tretyakova said. Importing more oil also does not align with the EU’s climate goals and the continent’s refining capacity is declining, she said.

Surging LNG exports is also tough, Utting said. U.S. terminals always run at full capacity so there isn’t slack capacity to increase shipments to the EU right now, he said. As in the case with oil, LNG would have to be diverted from other customers to Europe, he said.

More LNG capacity is coming online over the next two years that could be exported to Europe, he said. But the EU already receives more than half its imports from the U.S., Utting said.

“It’s very unrealistic that Europe would import exclusively from the U.S.,” he said. “They will want to diversify to some extent.”

While the headline $750 billion figure is unrealistic, the EU is showing that it is serious about expanding its energy trade with the U.S., said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG research at Rapidan Energy.

The EU was already planning to eliminate what remains of Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports to the bloc by 2028. This will create a supply gap of 25 million metric tons per year that the U.S. is perfectly positioned to fill, Munton said.

“The interests line up, they go hand in hand,” he said. “That’s why it’s essentially a convenient deal.”

Environment

Report: Ferrari were SO impressed by the Xiaomi SU7, they bought one

Published

5 hours ago

July 30, 2025

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Report: Ferrari were SO impressed by the Xiaomi SU7, they bought one

Impressed by the Xiaomi SUV? Ferrari is, and it looks like they're benchmarking China's super EV

With its tire-blistering acceleration and record-setting performance, the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra has been getting attention throughout the auto industry, impressing everyone who’s seen it. That “everyone” now seems to include the OG supercar brand, itself.

CarNewsChina posted pictures from a Weibo user that reportedly show a Xiaomi SU7 Ultra exiting the storied Ferrari factory in Maranello, Italy. According to a Chinese blogger going by 西米露在博洛尼亚 (which seems to translate to “Sago Dessert in Bologna”), the prancing horse brand is actively benchmarking the Chinese hypercar for its own upcoming EV.

The SU7 Ultra was definitely coming from inside Ferrari’s facility. After verification, we learned this specific vehicle was officially purchased by Ferrari for testing, and the development of their next-generation electric platform.

西米露在博洛尼亚

Yet another Chinese auto blogger, 苏黎世贝勒爷, claims that Ferrari representatives visited Xiaomi headquarters last year, allegedly to discuss the joint development of next-generation high-performance EV motors.

The Xiaomi SU7 Ultra made its debut last year, promising 1,548 hp, sub 2.0-second 0-60 mph times, and a top speed well over 200 mph – all at a price lower than a Tesla Model S Plaid or Porsche Taycan Turbo GT. The car sold out almost immediately after it was unveiled, racking up some 50,000 orders almost overnight.

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The new electric benchmark

Xiaomi SU7 Ultra at Fiorano; via Weibo user Piniluoshan.

In the automotive world, “benchmarking” is a process in which car companies systematically tear down each others’ competitive products to compare everything from sound insulation, vehicle ride and handling, component materials, and even manufacturing methods against their own or against other industry leaders. The goal is to evaluate performance, cost, quality, and other key metrics, effectively figuring out “where they stand” in the market.

If Ferrari really did buy an SU7 to benchmark it against their own upcoming electric supercar, it’s more than just a curiosity – it could mean that the highest tiers of automotive innovation have shifted from West to East. Maybe forever.

Featured image via Xiaomi; sources throughout the post.

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Environment

Chevy teases new Bolt w/NACS, front fascia redesign, rear brake lights

Published

6 hours ago

July 30, 2025

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Chevy teases new Bolt w/NACS, front fascia redesign, rear brake lights

We’re finally getting our first teases of the upgraded 2027 Chevy Bolt, built on GM’s battery/motor platform formerly known as Ultium. So far, so good for the vehicle, which will be revealed later this Fall.

Chevy took to social media today to tease the 2027 Chevy Bolt, saying, “You asked, we listened. The #ChevyBolt is back and better than ever. More this fall. 👀”

Environment

Tesla tops another ADAS test, Hyundai tops range tests, and Texas gets BESS

Published

7 hours ago

July 29, 2025

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Tesla tops another ADAS test, Hyundai tops range tests, and Texas gets BESS

On today’s test-acular episode of Quick Charge, it’s a new day and a new Chinese ADAS test for Tesla to conquer – but this one’s got a LOT more pedestrian carnage to parse through! We’ve also got some great e-bike deals from Retrospec and a bladder-busting Hyundai.

Today’s episode is brought to you by Retrospec – the makers of sleek, powerful e-bikes and outdoor gear built for everyday adventure! To that end, we’ve got a pair of Retrospec e-bike reviews followed up by the updated Hyundai IONIQ 6 with nearly 350 miles of range from its updated long-range battery. With that, Hyundai now has the longest range Korean EV on the market, while Texas is adding megawatts of battery energy storage to beef up its troubled grid, and it’s doing so faster and cheaper than ever before.

Plus: Quick Charge listeners can get an extra 10% off the price of their next awesome e-bike by using code ELECTREK10 at retrospec.com!

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