Tesla is about to tumble off a familiar policy cliff. The $7,500 federal tax credit that juiced demand for electric vehicles in the US, Tesla’s last large, healthy market, after September 30, 2025. Tesla has been here before, but the ground underneath the company looks very different today.
Let’s dig into what happened last time, what’s changing now, and why Elon Musk is already warning shareholders of “tough quarters ahead.”
We have been here before. Tesla lost access to parts of the federal tax credit for electric vehicles in 2019 and lost it fully by 2020.
Flashback: the 2019 credit phase‑out was painful—but survivable
Trigger: Tesla crossed 200,000 cumulative US deliveries in July 2018, starting a timer that halved the credit to $3,750 on Jan 1, 2019, and again to $1,875 on Jul 1, 2019, before it went to zero on Jan 1, 2020.
Tesla’s playbook: On Jan 2, 2019 the company shaved $2,000 off the sticker of every Model S, X, and 3 to “partially absorb” the lost incentive.
Demand whiplash: The price cut wasn’t enough to avoid a huge pull‑forward. Deliveries spiked in Q4 2018, then fell 31 % QoQ in Q1 2019.
Fast recovery: Thanks to Model Y’s arrival and virtually zero credible EV competitors, Tesla ended 2019 with 367,500 global deliveries (‑US dip only 1 %) and roared back to 499,550 in 2020.
Last time, the phase-out was gradual, enabling Tesla to fill the hole with price cuts.
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Most importantly, the phase-out period coincided with the launch of Model Y, which never had full access to the federal tax credit, allowing Tesla to grow in the US without it.
The 2025 sunset hits everyone, but it hurts Tesla most
The situation in 2025 is vastly different. Firstly, the EV market has undergone significant changes in the US. Tesla is still the biggest brand, but it’s nowhere near where it was 5 years ago:
2020 cliff
2025 cliff
Who lost the credit? Only Tesla and GM
Every OEM, but Tesla sells the most EVs
Competitive field < 15 mainstream EVs on sale
> 60 credit‑eligible models in showrooms
Tesla US share ~75 % of EVs
46 % in Q1 2025 and sliding
Gross margin cushion ~22 % automotive
~17 % in Q1 2025 after a year of price cuts
Furthermore, the impact of the tax credit was greater in the latest version. The Biden administration reinstated Tesla’s access to the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles in 2022 through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
However, it became even more attractive in 2024 when the government made it a “point-of-sale” incentive, which was applied directly to the vehicle’s price rather than as a rebate on taxes.
Going from that to nothing is expected to have a greater impact on demand for electric vehicles in the US.
What can Tesla do this time?
As last time, Tesla is expected to cut prices to compensate for the tax credit’s expiration.
However, Tesla has slimmer gross margins than it did previously, and it is not expected to be able to cut prices enough to compensate for the $7,500 price difference.
In addition to cutting prices, Tesla is expected to launch a stripped-down version of the Model Y with fewer features, which should significantly reduce the base price of its most popular model.
It should help with demand and avoid a greater reduction in Tesla’s production line capacity in Fremont and Austin, but with less value than the current versions of the Model Y, it is expected to cannibalize the more expensive versions of the best-selling vehicle mostly.
Key Take‑away
2018‑20 Phase‑out
September 30 2025 Sunset (forward‑looking)
Trigger
Tesla hit 200 000 cumulative U.S. EV deliveries in July 2018; credit stepped to $0 on 1 Jan 2020.
Statutory clean‑vehicle credit (up to $7 500 new / $4 000 used) ends for all manufacturers on 30 Sep 2025 under the IRA sunset clause.
Immediate demand reaction
Pull‑forward surges before each step‑down (Q4 2018, Q2 2019) followed by soft Q1 2019 deliveries (‑31 % QoQ).
Dealers already advertising “buy before it’s gone,” and analysts expect a Q3 2025 bump.
Volume impact in the first full no‑credit year
Tesla U.S. sales dipped only 1 % in 2019 and re‑accelerated +50 % in 2020 despite $0 credit, helped by Model Y launch and limited competition.
Competitive landscape is radically different—Tesla’s U.S. EV share has slipped from 62 % in 2022 to 46 % in Q1 2025. Demand is more price‑sensitive.
Profit levers used
$2 000–$3 000 price cuts, feature unbundling, and manufacturing scale offset lost credit.
To replicate prior success Tesla would need deeper price moves or zero‑interest financing, pressuring gross margin already down ~650 bps YoY by Q1 2025.
Strategic cushion
First‑mover advantage; few high‑volume rivals.
60+ eligible models from 17 brands compete in sub‑$60 k bracket; used‑EV market growing; interest‑rate environment still elevated.
Electrek’s Take
Shareholders should brace for the worst here. I know many of them have been holding on to the fact that Tesla did quite well after the removal of the tax credit last time, but as explained above, this time is entirely different.
The US has been Tesla’s only somewhat healthy market amongst the large automotive markets (US, Europe, and China). That’s because it is an uncompetitive market when it comes to electric vehicles.
Foreign EVs are not eligible for the tax credit, and Chinese EVs are subject to a 100% tariff.
The result is that Tesla was able to maintain a 45% (but declining) market share in the US EV market, compared to just 9% in Europe and 4% in China.
Now, demand for electric vehicles in the US is expected to crash.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk knows that he has warned that the automaker might face some “tough quarters” in “Q4 2025, and Q1 and Q2 2026.” After that, he expects Tesla to do well thanks to autonomous driving, but he has been consistently wrong about that for years.
I think the crash in demand will be accentuated in Q4 due to demand being pulled forward in Q3, which is likely to be Tesla’s last good quarter for a long time.
We are about to see Tesla’s sales decline, most likely sharply, in the US, while they have already crashed in Europe and are experiencing a decline in China due to intense competition.
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Tesla’s ‘Robotaxi’ is now blatantly operated by human drivers as the automaker launches a ride-hailing service in the Bay Area through its ‘Robotaxi’ app.
When Tesla launched its ‘Robotaxi’ service in Austin, we noted how it was just for optics and the fact that it still uses “safety monitor” in the front passenger seats makes it a “supervised” system and therefore, not a level 4 autonomous driving system.
It’s basically Tesla’s consumer ‘Supervised Full Self-Driving’ (FSD), but with the supervisor moved from the driver’s seat to the front passenger seat.
The reason Tesla was able to do that is that Texas law allows it, and it looks better for them than having a driver in the driver’s seat. Instead, the “safety monitor” has access to a kill switch that can stop the car, something Tesla is not publicizing.
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Over the last few weeks, Tesla has been teasing the expansion of its Robotaxi in California despite not having secured any of the permits required for an automated driving system in the state.
Now, Tesla has expanded its service area in the “Robotaxi” app to the Bay Area, but even though it’s in the “Robotaxi” app, it is only calling it a “ride-hailing service” because there’s a driver in the driver’s seat of each car:
Tesla fans have applauded the automaker for covering such a large part of the Bay Area, bigger than Waymo’s coverage of the region, but to be clear, Tesla’s service right now is not comparable to Waymo’s in the Bay Area. It’s only equivalent to Uber.
In fact, it’s the exact same service as an Uber driver who owns a Tesla with Supervised FSD in the Bay Area.
Politico reported that Tesla still hasn’t applied for any of the required permits to operate autonomous vehicles in California, despite CEO Elon Musk claiming just last week that Tesla was waiting for regulators.
Documents from the California DMV and Public Utilities Commission revealed that the state agencies were concerned by comments from Tesla employees regarding the automaker’s imminent launch of its Robotaxi service in the state, despite not having obtained any authorization.
Tesla’s regulatory counsel quickly intervened to explain to the state that there’s no such plan and Tesla only plans to launch a ride-hailing service for “employees, friends and family, and select members of the public”, which is apparently what was launched today.
The automaker is not looking for “vehicle operators” in 9 other US cities to launch the same ride-hailing service, which it operates under its ‘Robotaxi’ app.
Electrek’s Take
This is so blatantly misleading. Tesla is trying to make the public think it is a leader in autonomous driving by launching its ‘Robotaxi’ service in cities while being powered by human drivers.
It’s FSD in consumer vehicles. That’s all it is, and we know that it gets about 500 miles between critical disengagement, based on the best crowdsourced data.
By not applying for an autonomous driving permit, Tesla is making sure that it doesn’t have to report any data to the state.
Why doesn’t Tesla want to do that? The only thing that makes sense is that it is not ready for it, and the data wouldn’t look good.
This is all for show because Waymo is starting to rapidly expand and making Elon Musk look bad after he has been claiming for years that Tesla is the leader in autonomous driving with no close second.
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Hyundai said the new trade agreement was a “historic achievement” between the US and South Korea. Although Hyundai Motor, including Kia and Genesis, is getting some relief with lower US tariffs, it’s still expected to face billions in extra costs this year.
Hyundai and Kia score US tariff relief
After threatening tariffs as high as 25% on imported vehicles from South Korea, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US will instead enact a 15% tariff.
Hyundai’s executive chairman, Chung Euisun, who was in Washington for the final negotiations, called the agreement a “historic win.” The tariff rate is the same 15% on imports from Japan, putting Hyundai and Kia on a level playing field.
Although it’s better than 25%, the added tariffs are expected to cost Hyundai an additional $5 billion this year. The lower rate will still save Hyundai over $3 billion in costs, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanna Chen.
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Even before the $7,500 IRA tax credit for electric vehicles and other Biden-era policies were enacted, Hyundai was planning to grow its market share in the US, its largest market.
Hyundai Motor America CEO Jose Munoz with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp at Hyundai Day (Source: Hyundai)
The Korean auto giant invested $7.6 billion to build its new EV manufacturing plant in Georgia, directly creating 8,500 jobs.
Hyundai and SK On’s $5 billion battery plant in the state will employ an additional 3,500 workers. It’s the largest economic project in state history.
Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America grand opening (Source: Hyundai)
According to a study by the Center for Automotive Research, Hyundai’s new EV plant will help create over 58,200 new jobs in the area.
Earlier this year, Hyundai announced a record $21 billion investment to expand production in the US over the next three years. The investment will directly create around 14,000 jobs while ramping up the output of Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis vehicles in the US. By 2028, Hyundai expects to generate over 100,000 direct and indirect jobs in the US.
2026 Hyundai IONIQ 9 (Source: Hyundai)
Hyundai Motor, including Kia and Genesis, saw its market share in the US rise to about 11% in the first half of 2025, up from 10.5% the previous year.
Since Hyundai builds the new IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 9, its first three-row SUV in Georgia, both still qualify for the $7,500 tax credit. However, that’s set to expire at the end of September.
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 at a Tesla Supercharger (Source: Hyundai)
After cutting lease prices again, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 is now one of the most affordable EVs on the market, starting at just $179 per month.
The 2026 IONIQ 9 (check out our review of it) is available with leases starting at just $419 per month. To ease the transition, Hyundai is including a complimentary ChargePoint L2 home charger with the purchase or lease of any new 2025 IONIQ 5 or 2026 IONIQ 9.
Looking to test one out for yourself? You can use the links below to find 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 and 2026 IONIQ 9 models in your area.
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After kicking off production last month, Zero Motorcycles has now officially begun deliveries of its highly anticipated X Line models. The first wave of customers is taking delivery of their new Zero XE and Zero XB electric motorcycles, marking a major milestone for the company’s push into more affordable off-road and adventure EVs.
“The delivery of the first X Line bikes is a major milestone for Zero and for the future of off-road EV performance,” said Zero CEO Sam Paschel. “It’s the start of a new chapter in how adventure riding is experienced. With the XB and XE, we’re making electric motorcycles more accessible and approachable for riders everywhere.”
Zero first unveiled the X Line late last year, announcing the two-bike lineup aimed at adventure and trail riders. The XE and XB models were designed to be affordable new platforms, not just budget versions of Zero’s existing on-road bikes.
Both bikes are designed to be street-legal in Europe, but are intended only for off-road riding in the US.
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The two models were developed alongside Zero’s Chinese partner Zongshen to offer an approachable gateway to electric two-wheeled adventure, with lightweight frames, swappable battery packs, and plenty of power for getting off the beaten path. They’re also the most affordable models Zero has ever produced: the smaller Zero XB starts at just $4,395 in the U.S., while the larger, more powerful Zero XE comes in at $6,495.
At those price points, the X Line represents a big shift for Zero, which has historically focused on premium electric motorcycles priced well into five-figure territory.
Deliveries began this week and will continue to roll out over the coming months. Buyers who place new reservations starting today can expect deliveries to begin in Fall 2025, according to the company.
The X Line is a strategic move for Zero as it looks to expand its rider base beyond urban commuters and high-end sport bike enthusiasts. With more riders, especially younger and off-road focused customers, showing interest in electric motorcycles, the XE and XB could be just the right mix of capability and price to bring new blood into the EV moto world.
Electrek’s Take
This is a big moment for Zero. After more than a decade building high-performance electric motorcycles for the street, the company is finally breaking into the more affordable end of the market, and doing it with purpose-built off-road machines, not watered-down street bikes.
The fact that the XB starts at under $4,500 is kind of wild, especially considering Zero’s bikes have historically hovered around the $15K mark. Sure, these aren’t full-size dual-sport monsters, but they’re not toys either. And yes, there are questions about how much of these bikes are actually Zero, and how much are basically Sur Rons built by Zongshen. But with decent range, real off-road chops, and swappable batteries, if these bikes can deliver a quality ride then it might not really matter. The new models have the potential to carve out a whole new corner of the market for Zero, one that’s long been dominated by DIY conversions or budget Asian imports.
If Zero can ramp up deliveries smoothly and keep the quality high, the X Line might be the company’s most important launch yet. And judging by the response so far, there’s real demand for affordable, capable electric trail bikes. Now they just need to homologate them for the US market.
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