At a critical port on the Taiwanese island of Penghu, there is a sudden bang of explosions.
For emergency crews, it is a race to respond, attend to the injured and contain what damage they can. It is noisy and chaotic.
But this time, it is just a rehearsal.
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Is Taiwan ready for Chinese invasion?
In fact, what we have been invited to watch is part of a programme of nationwide drills to test Taiwan’s civil resilience.
To ask, in essence, if its people are ready for war.
And there are clearly questions here about whether they are.
Penghu is an archipelago that sits about 31 miles (50km) west of Taiwan’s main island. It could be an early, easy target for China – and that means preparation here is vital.
But observers who have travelled from Taipei to assess proceedings are not entirely impressed.
“Do you think with just the staff here now it will be enough?” asks one senior government official at a community hall where about a dozen staff are practising handing out food and supplies.
“Of course not! There will be more than 7,000 people queuing up. They’ll wait from morning until the afternoon and get nothing. It’s completely impossible.”
‘China is preparing to invade’
The scenarios might be imagined, but the threat behind them is very real, and it’s being met with a new sense of urgency.
And now, in an interview with Sky News, Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister Wu Chihchung lays out the reality in perhaps some of the starkest terms used by this administration to date.
“The population need to not be naive like in the past,” he says.
“China is preparing to invade Taiwan.”
Image: Taiwan was naive about its security, says deputy foreign minister Wu Chihchung
It comes at a time when increasingly sophisticated military activity and grey zone incursions from China have combined with a more robust approach from Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te, resulting in the most febrile atmosphere in the Taiwan Strait for decades.
Add into the mix Donald Trump’s presidency casting doubt over whether Taiwan can rely on US support in the event of a crisis, and questions about Taiwan’s readiness feel more pressing now than ever before.
“Taiwan alone, facing China – we will never be ready,” concedes Wu. “It’s not possible, China is so big, so huge.”
His words reflect harsh realities in Taiwan.
Self-governing and democratic, it is viewed by China as a breakaway province.
Under President Xi Jinping, the long-held aim of reunification has been turbocharged – he has reportedly asked his troops to be ready for a potential invasion as early as 2027.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s new president is seen as a deeply provocative figure on the mainland, with Beijing depicting him in propaganda as a parasite “courting ultimate destruction”.
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In Lai Ching-te’s first year in office, he has demonstrated a willingness to go further in both words and policies than any who have preceded him.
He has not only described China as “a foreign hostile force” but has introduced a raft of new security measures, including the reinstating of a military court-style system, the deportation of pro-China influencers and a spike in the number of people arrested for espionage – four times as many last year as in 2021.
And all this has not gone unnoticed by China.
China’s grey zone tactics
The 14 months since Lai’s inauguration have been marked by an increase in Chinese action: numerous large-scale military drills, live-fire exercises and full encirclement of the island by jets and ships.
Beijing also appears to have been testing new capabilities, with onlookers in China taking videos of what appeared to be a test of a huge amphibious bridging system, a possible path on to Taiwan.
But perhaps the most noteworthy change has been the marked increase in so-called grey zone incursions, with China encroaching slowly in ways that are hard for Taiwan to respond to.
On Penghu, these tactics are a daily reality and are impacting lives and livelihoods.
“In the past, our fishing boats could go directly to mainland China. They’d even go ashore, maybe grab a meal,” explains Yen Te-Fu, who heads up the Penghu Fishermen’s Association.
Image: Penghu’s fishing industry has been impacted by Chinese incursions
“But fishermen are now too afraid to sail to China. When they fish in our own waters, they constantly see Chinese Coast Guard ships. They’re genuinely scared.”
He says it’s worse now than ever “because Lai Ching-te’s stance is even clearer”.
But the use of coastguard vessels to enforce new Chinese-set norms is just one tactic, according to observers.
Image: Taiwan’s Coast Guard faces off against Chinese counterparts near the coast of Hualien, east Taiwan, last December
Research published by the Taiwanese thinktank Research Project on China’s Defence Affairs (RCDA) has recorded new incidents of so-called “three-no” ships crossing the median line.
These are ships with no name, no registered home port and no registration certificate.
Thirty ships crossed on the eve of the one-year anniversary of President Lai’s inauguration as an “evidently disguised maritime militia ship”, the RCDA says.
While not against maritime law, it is nonetheless a serious accusation.
“This is nothing but a sheer slander, like a thief shouting ‘catch the thief’,” said Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson for China’s ministry of national defence, when we put it to him.
“The relevant actions conducted by the PLA in the Taiwan Strait are necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Transactional Trump ‘constantly changing’
Conversations about Taiwan’s security have changed since Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Like most countries, the US does not share formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but it is treaty-bound to supply it with defensive arms, and previous presidents have hinted they would do more if needed.
But Trump has accused Taiwan of “stealing” the US semiconductor industry, slapped it with a 32% tariff rate and refused to say if he would come to Taiwan’s defence (the tariff has been paused while negotiations continue).
At a baseball game in the northern city of Taoyuan, people didn’t hold back their views.
“I think he’s quite crazy,” one woman tells us.
“He’s constantly changing, there’s no credibility at all,” says a man. “It’s always America First, not caring about any other country.”
Image: ‘I think he’s quite crazy,’ says a baseball fan on Trump
Government figures, of course, remain more diplomatic. Lai described the recent tariff negotiation as merely “frictions between friends”, but there is a sense that they know they cannot afford to become alienated from Trump.
In fact, TSMC, Taiwan’s (and the world’s) leading manufacturer of semiconductor chips, recently announced an additional $100bn investment to build factories in the US.
Semiconductors are the vital chips needed to power the modern world. Taiwan makes more than 90% of the world’s most advanced ones, and the industry is seen as one of the key reasons the West could come to its support.
Image: Trump announced the $100bn deal with TSMC president C.C Wei at the White House
The US investment was thus criticised by some as a divergence of Taiwan’s greatest defensive asset, a claim the government here bats away.
“America has also given us a lot,” insists deputy foreign minister Wu. “The American army is working hard to maintain peace in the region.
“Donald Trump certainly knows that without Taiwanese chips, he cannot make America great again.”
Taiwan’s ‘wake-up call’ on defence
With more concern over US support for Taiwan, come questions on whether the island could defend itself.
In recent years, there has been a concerted push from the Taiwanese government to better equip itself with the type of asymmetric weaponry that would be needed to resist China.
Inspired by the experiences of Ukraine, additional drone manufacturers were given contracts in 2022 to help rapidly scale up production of military-grade drones.
But data from the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology shows that there is still a long way to go.
Image: Taiwan is attempting to scale up production of military-grade drones
Drone production capacity in the year to April 2025 was only around 5% of the 180,000 units Taiwan wants to be producing annually by 2028.
Thunder Tiger was one of the firms given a contract and its general manager Gene Su says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “wake-up call” for Taiwanese military procurement.
But more needs to be done, he adds.
“I believe we are speeding up, but I believe that it’s not yet there,” he says.
In his dealings with the government, he feels that Trump has changed the equation, with an uptick of defence purchasing.
Image: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a ‘wake-up call’ for Taiwan, says Gene Su
But even with these renewed efforts, without help from allies, it is still unlikely Taiwan could hold out.
China has always been resolute and consistent.
It says the Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China and that the Lai administration is a separatist force, which is the root cause of disruption to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
It also says there is “no such thing” as a deputy foreign minister in Taiwan.
The status quo has kept Taiwan safe for nearly 80 years and the government here insists that maintaining it is their priority, but that has rarely felt so vulnerable.
“Terrible”, “weird”, “peculiar” and “baffling” – some of the adjectives being levelled by observers at the Donald Trump administration’s peace plan for Ukraine.
The 28-point proposal was cooked up between Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff and Kremlin official Kirill Dmitriev without European and Ukrainian involvement.
It effectively dresses up Russian demands as a peace proposal. Demands first made by Russia at the high watermark of its invasion in 2022, before defeats forced it to retreat from much of Ukraine.
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Ukrainian support for peace plan ‘very much in doubt’
The suspicion is Mr Witkoff and Mr Dmitriev conspired together to choose this moment to put even more pressure on the Ukrainian president.
Perversely, though, it may help him.
There has been universal condemnation and outrage in Kyiv at the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Rivals have little choice but to rally around the wartime Ukrainian leader as he faces such unreasonable demands.
The genesis of this plan is unclear.
Was it born from Donald Trump’s overinflated belief in his peacemaking abilities? His overrated Gaza ceasefire plan attracted lavish praise from world leaders, but now seems mired in deepening difficulty.
The fear is Mr Trump’s team are finding ways to allow him to walk away from this conflict altogether, blaming Ukrainian intransigence for the failure of his diplomacy.
Mr Trump has already ended financial support for Ukraine, acting as an arms dealer instead, selling weapons to Europe to pass on to the invaded democracy.
If he were to take away military intelligence support too, Ukraine would be blind to the kind of attacks that in recent days have killed scores of civilians.
Europe and Ukraine cannot reject the plan entirely and risk alienating Mr Trump.
They will play for time and hope against all the evidence he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin and put pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war, rather than force Ukraine to surrender instead.
This is the first time the G20 summit is being hosted on African soil.
Heads of state from 15 countries across Europe, Asia and South America are expected to convene in South Africa’s economic capital, Johannesburg, under the banner of “solidarity, equality and sustainability.”
The summit is facing challenges from the Oval Office as US President Donald Trump boycotts the event, where the G20 leadership is meant to be handed over to him by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The US has also warned South Africa against issuing a joint declaration at the end of the summit. The challenges to South Africa’s G20debut are also domestic.
Image: Trump had a contentious meeting with Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office earlier this year. File pic: AP
Nationwide civic disobedience has been planned by women’s rights charities, nationalist groups and trade unions – all using this moment to draw the government’s attention to critical issues it has failed to address around femicide, immigration and high unemployment.
But a key symbolic threat to the credibility of an African G20 summit themed around inclusivity is the continued exclusion and marginalisation of its oldest communities.
“There is a disingenuous thread that runs right through many of these gatherings, and the G20 is no different”, Khoisan Chief Zenzile tells us in front of the First Nations Heritage Centre in Cape Town, “from any of them”.
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“I am very concerned that the many marginalised sections of society – youth, indigenous people, are not inside the front and centre of this agenda,” he added.
Image: Khoisan Chief Zenzile says land developments on indigenous land are the ‘most ridiculous notion’
As we speak, the sounds of construction echo around us. We are standing in a curated indigenous garden as South Africa’s Amazon headquarters is being built nearby.
After years of being sidelined by the government in a deal that centres around construction on sacred Khoisan land, Chief Zenzile said he negotiated directly with the developers to build the heritage centre and sanctuary as a trade-off while retaining permanent ownership of the land.
“There are many people who like to fetishise indigenous people who want to relegate us to an anthropoid state, as if that is the only place we can, as if we don’t have the tools to navigate the modern world,” he says when I ask about modern buildings towering over the sacred land.
“That is the most ridiculous notion – that the entire world must progress and we must be relegated to a state over which we have no agency.”
An hour and a half from Cape Town’s centre, Khoi-San communities have seized 2,000 hectares of land that they say historically belongs to them.
Knoflokskraal is a state where they exercise full agency – filling in the infrastructural gaps around water and electricity supply that the provincial government will not offer to residents it categorises as “squatters”.
“We are – exactly today – here for five years now,” Dawid De Wee, president of the Khoi Aboriginal Party, tells us as he gives us a tour of the settlement. “There are more or less around 4,000 of us.
“The calling from our ancestral graves sent us down here, so we had an urge to get our own identity and get back to our roots, and that was the driving motive behind everything we are here now to take back our ancestral grounds.”
Image: ‘We are here now to take back our ancestral grounds,’ Dawid De Wee says
Dawid says they have plans to expand to reclaim more swathes of land stolen from them by European settlers in the 1600s across the Cape Colony.
Land reform is a contentious issue in post-Apartheid South Africa, with a white minority still owning a majority of the land.
Indigenous land is even further down the agenda of reparations, and South Africa’s oldest communities continue to suffer from historic dispossession and marginalisation.
For many Khoi-San leaders, G20 represents the ongoing exclusion from a modern South African state.
They have not been invited to officially participate in events where “solidarity, equality and sustainability,” are being discussed without reference to their age-old knowledge.
Instead, we meet Khoi-San Queen Eloise at a gathering of tribal leaders from around the world on the most southwestern tip of Africa in Cape Point called the World Tribal Alliance.
Image: Khoi-San Queen Eloise tells Sky that the G20 ‘is a politically-based gathering’
“In order for us to heal, Mother Nature and Mother Earth is calling us, calling our kinship, to come together – especially as indigenous people because with indigenous people we are still connected to our lands, to our intellectual property we are connected to who we are,” Queen Eloise tells us.
“G20 is a politically-based gathering – they are coming together to determine the future of people politically.
“The difference is that we will seek what Mother Earth wants from us and not what we want to do with technology or all those things politically, but the depth of where we are supposed to go.”
A fierce warning from Britain’s defence secretary to Vladimir Putin to turn his spy ship away from UK waters or face the consequences was a very public attempt to deter the threat.
But unless John Healey backs his rhetoric up with a far more urgent push to rearm – and to rebuild wider national resilience – he risks his words ringing as hollow as his military.
The defence secretary on Wednesday repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.
Image: Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel.
File pic: MOD
Instead of focusing purely on the threat, he also stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.
In a sign of the government’s priorities, job creation is typically the top line of any Ministry of Defence press release about its latest investment in missiles, drones and warships rather than why the equipment is vital to defend the nation.
I doubt expanding employment opportunities was the motivating factor in the 1930s when the UK converted car factories into Spitfire production lines to prepare for war with Nazi Germany.
Yet communicating to the public what war readiness really means must surely be just as important today.
Image: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
Mr Healey also chose this moment of national peril to attempt to score political points by criticising the previous Conservative government for hollowing out the armed forces – when the military was left in a similarly underfunded state during the last Labour government.
A report by a group of MPs, released on the same day as Mr Healey rattled his sabre at Russia, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.
Image: HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA
It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.
The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something the prime minister had promised last year.
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The report backed up the findings of a wargame podcast by Sky News and Tortoise that simulated what might happen if Russia launched waves of missile strikes against the UK.
The series showed how successive defence cuts since the end of the Cold War means the army, navy and air force are woefully equipped to defend the home front.
But credible national defences also require the wider country to be prepared for war.
A set of plans setting out what must happen in the transition from peace to war was quietly shelved at the start of this century, so there no longer exists a rehearsed and resourced system to ensure local authorities, businesses and the wider population know what to do.
Image: John Healey.
Pic: PA
Mr Healey revealed that the Russian spy ship had directed a laser light presumably to dazzle pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was tracking it.
“That Russian action is deeply dangerous,” he said.
“So, my message to Russia and to Putin, is this: We see you. We know what you are doing. And if Yantar travels south this week, we are ready.”
He did not spell out what this might mean but it could include attempts to block the Russian vessel’s passage, or even fire warning shots to force it to retreat.
Image: The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
However, any direct engagement could trigger a retaliation from Moscow.
For now, the Russian ship – fitted with spying equipment to monitor critical national infrastructure such as communications cables on the seabed – has moved away from the UK coast. It was at its closest between 5 and 11 November.
The military is still tracking its movements closely in case the ship returns.