‘China is preparing to invade Taiwan’ – but there are questions over whether the island is ready
At a critical port on the Taiwanese island of Penghu, there is a sudden bang of explosions.
For emergency crews, it is a race to respond, attend to the injured and contain what damage they can. It is noisy and chaotic.
But this time, it is just a rehearsal.
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Is Taiwan ready for Chinese invasion?
In fact, what we have been invited to watch is part of a programme of nationwide drills to test Taiwan’s civil resilience.
To ask, in essence, if its people are ready for war.
And there are clearly questions here about whether they are.
Penghu is an archipelago that sits about 31 miles (50km) west of Taiwan’s main island. It could be an early, easy target for China – and that means preparation here is vital.
But observers who have travelled from Taipei to assess proceedings are not entirely impressed.
“Do you think with just the staff here now it will be enough?” asks one senior government official at a community hall where about a dozen staff are practising handing out food and supplies.
“Of course not! There will be more than 7,000 people queuing up. They’ll wait from morning until the afternoon and get nothing. It’s completely impossible.”
‘China is preparing to invade’
The scenarios might be imagined, but the threat behind them is very real, and it’s being met with a new sense of urgency.
And now, in an interview with Sky News, Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister Wu Chihchung lays out the reality in perhaps some of the starkest terms used by this administration to date.
“The population need to not be naive like in the past,” he says.
“China is preparing to invade Taiwan.”
Taiwan was naive about its security, says deputy foreign minister Wu Chihchung
It comes at a time when increasingly sophisticated military activity and grey zone incursions from China have combined with a more robust approach from Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te, resulting in the most febrile atmosphere in the Taiwan Strait for decades.
Add into the mix Donald Trump’s presidency casting doubt over whether Taiwan can rely on US support in the event of a crisis, and questions about Taiwan’s readiness feel more pressing now than ever before.
“Taiwan alone, facing China – we will never be ready,” concedes Wu. “It’s not possible, China is so big, so huge.”
His words reflect harsh realities in Taiwan.
Self-governing and democratic, it is viewed by China as a breakaway province.
Under President Xi Jinping, the long-held aim of reunification has been turbocharged – he has reportedly asked his troops to be ready for a potential invasion as early as 2027.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s new president is seen as a deeply provocative figure on the mainland, with Beijing depicting him in propaganda as a parasite “courting ultimate destruction”.
In Lai Ching-te’s first year in office, he has demonstrated a willingness to go further in both words and policies than any who have preceded him.
He has not only described China as “a foreign hostile force” but has introduced a raft of new security measures, including the reinstating of a military court-style system, the deportation of pro-China influencers and a spike in the number of people arrested for espionage – four times as many last year as in 2021.
And all this has not gone unnoticed by China.
China’s grey zone tactics
The 14 months since Lai’s inauguration have been marked by an increase in Chinese action: numerous large-scale military drills, live-fire exercises and full encirclement of the island by jets and ships.
Beijing also appears to have been testing new capabilities, with onlookers in China taking videos of what appeared to be a test of a huge amphibious bridging system, a possible path on to Taiwan.
But perhaps the most noteworthy change has been the marked increase in so-called grey zone incursions, with China encroaching slowly in ways that are hard for Taiwan to respond to.
On Penghu, these tactics are a daily reality and are impacting lives and livelihoods.
“In the past, our fishing boats could go directly to mainland China. They’d even go ashore, maybe grab a meal,” explains Yen Te-Fu, who heads up the Penghu Fishermen’s Association.
Penghu’s fishing industry has been impacted by Chinese incursions
“But fishermen are now too afraid to sail to China. When they fish in our own waters, they constantly see Chinese Coast Guard ships. They’re genuinely scared.”
He says it’s worse now than ever “because Lai Ching-te’s stance is even clearer”.
But the use of coastguard vessels to enforce new Chinese-set norms is just one tactic, according to observers.
Taiwan’s Coast Guard faces off against Chinese counterparts near the coast of Hualien, east Taiwan, last December
Research published by the Taiwanese thinktank Research Project on China’s Defence Affairs (RCDA) has recorded new incidents of so-called “three-no” ships crossing the median line.
These are ships with no name, no registered home port and no registration certificate.
Thirty ships crossed on the eve of the one-year anniversary of President Lai’s inauguration as an “evidently disguised maritime militia ship”, the RCDA says.
While not against maritime law, it is nonetheless a serious accusation.
“This is nothing but a sheer slander, like a thief shouting ‘catch the thief’,” said Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson for China’s ministry of national defence, when we put it to him.
“The relevant actions conducted by the PLA in the Taiwan Strait are necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Transactional Trump ‘constantly changing’
Conversations about Taiwan’s security have changed since Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Like most countries, the US does not share formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but it is treaty-bound to supply it with defensive arms, and previous presidents have hinted they would do more if needed.
But Trump has accused Taiwan of “stealing” the US semiconductor industry, slapped it with a 32% tariff rate and refused to say if he would come to Taiwan’s defence (the tariff has been paused while negotiations continue).
At a baseball game in the northern city of Taoyuan, people didn’t hold back their views.
“I think he’s quite crazy,” one woman tells us.
“He’s constantly changing, there’s no credibility at all,” says a man. “It’s always America First, not caring about any other country.”
‘I think he’s quite crazy,’ says a baseball fan on Trump
Government figures, of course, remain more diplomatic. Lai described the recent tariff negotiation as merely “frictions between friends”, but there is a sense that they know they cannot afford to become alienated from Trump.
In fact, TSMC, Taiwan’s (and the world’s) leading manufacturer of semiconductor chips, recently announced an additional $100bn investment to build factories in the US.
Semiconductors are the vital chips needed to power the modern world. Taiwan makes more than 90% of the world’s most advanced ones, and the industry is seen as one of the key reasons the West could come to its support.
Trump announced the $100bn deal with TSMC president C.C Wei at the White House
The US investment was thus criticised by some as a divergence of Taiwan’s greatest defensive asset, a claim the government here bats away.
“America has also given us a lot,” insists deputy foreign minister Wu. “The American army is working hard to maintain peace in the region.
“Donald Trump certainly knows that without Taiwanese chips, he cannot make America great again.”
Taiwan’s ‘wake-up call’ on defence
With more concern over US support for Taiwan, come questions on whether the island could defend itself.
In recent years, there has been a concerted push from the Taiwanese government to better equip itself with the type of asymmetric weaponry that would be needed to resist China.
Inspired by the experiences of Ukraine, additional drone manufacturers were given contracts in 2022 to help rapidly scale up production of military-grade drones.
But data from the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology shows that there is still a long way to go.
Taiwan is attempting to scale up production of military-grade drones
Drone production capacity in the year to April 2025 was only around 5% of the 180,000 units Taiwan wants to be producing annually by 2028.
Thunder Tiger was one of the firms given a contract and its general manager Gene Su says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “wake-up call” for Taiwanese military procurement.
But more needs to be done, he adds.
“I believe we are speeding up, but I believe that it’s not yet there,” he says.
In his dealings with the government, he feels that Trump has changed the equation, with an uptick of defence purchasing.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a ‘wake-up call’ for Taiwan, says Gene Su
But even with these renewed efforts, without help from allies, it is still unlikely Taiwan could hold out.
China has always been resolute and consistent.
It says the Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China and that the Lai administration is a separatist force, which is the root cause of disruption to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
It also says there is “no such thing” as a deputy foreign minister in Taiwan.
The status quo has kept Taiwan safe for nearly 80 years and the government here insists that maintaining it is their priority, but that has rarely felt so vulnerable.
Hurricane Melissa, the world’s most powerful hurricane of the year so far, is closing in on Jamaica, with forecasters warning it could have a “catastrophic” impact.
The Category 5 hurricane has reached speeds of 175mph, already making it one of the strongest ever in the Atlantic basin.
A storm of Category 4 or higher has not hit Jamaica since records began 174 years ago.
It is expected to make landfall in the coming hours, continuing towards eastern Cuba and across the southeastern or central Bahamas.
Here’s what we know so far.
How bad could it be?
“Catastrophic” flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely when the hurricane hits, according to the US National Hurricane Centre, which warned of “total structural failure”.
Parts of the Caribbean island could see rainfall of up to 40 inches and it could cause a “life-threatening” storm surge on Jamaica’s southern coast, peaking around 13ft above ground level, the US centre said.
The storm is expected to be particularly bad along the coast of Kingston, which is home to critical infrastructure, including Jamaica’s main international airport and power plants.
Hurricane Melissa moves towards Jamaica and Cuba. Pic: CIRA/NOAA via Reuters
Live updates as hurricane approaches
Jamaica’s prime minister Andrew Holness said he expected “major damage to our road infrastructure, bridges, drains and possibly some damage to ports and airports” and warned it would take “far more resources than Jamaica has to recover”.
There are 850 shelters across the island, he added, enough for more than 20,000 people. Jamaica has a population of roughly 2.8 million.
All of Jamaica is expected to experience hurricane-force winds, heavy rainfall and flooding.
Has anyone died because of the hurricane?
Officials have said the storm is already responsible for at least seven deaths in the Caribbean, including three in Jamaica, three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing.
The three deaths in Jamaica happened during preparations for the storm’s arrival as people were cutting trees, health minister Christopher Tufton said. Thirteen people were injured, mostly due to falling off ladders and rooftops.
He urged Jamaicans to be careful during preparations, adding they should ensure all homes are stocked with enough drinking water and non-perishable food.
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Jamaica braces for Hurricane Melissa
On Monday evening Matthew Samuda, the environment minister, said the time to prepare for the storm was over and that “the time now is to listen to instruction”, advising the public to start using resources sparingly.
Evacuation orders issued as power outages hit
Map showing areas of Jamaica which have evacuation orders
Jamaica’s government has issued mandatory evacuation orders for at least seven areas in the southeast that are designated as high risk.
As of Monday night, many people had remained in their homes, according to Jamaica’s minister for science, energy, transport and telecommunication, Daryl Vaz.
“It’s very difficult, and it has always been a problem because people basically don’t take the event as seriously as they ought to,” Mr Vaz told Sky News.
He added that evacuation numbers were still “way below” the government’s targets.
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‘Very difficult’ to convince Jamaicans to evacuate
Colin Bogle, a Mercy Corps adviser based near Kingston, suggested many families were sheltering in their homes due to fears rather than complacency.
“Many have never experienced anything like this before, and the uncertainty is frightening,” he said.
“There is profound fear of losing homes and livelihoods, of injury, and of displacement.”
An estimated 52,000 people lost power as the hurricane approached, mostly in the western part of the country, the Jamaica Public Service said.
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, it said crews had managed to restore power for 30,000 of those affected and that they were continuing to work on the issues.
It added heavy rain and difficult terrain were “creating access challenges” and that “the safety of our crews and the public is our top priority”.
British holidaymakers locked down in hotels
Jamaica’s peak holiday season runs from mid-December to mid-April, but its tropical climate brings warmth all year round.
Hurricane season runs from June until November, but the country continues to attract tourists.
One of them is Andrew Tracey, a British holidaymaker who told Sky News he has been locked down in his hotel room until Wednesday at the earliest, having arrived on 20 October.
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Briton in Jamaica: ‘There is an undercurrent of panic’
He also estimated there were at least 200 people from the UK staying at the same complex.
With all airports in Jamaica closed, his flight was cancelled and there was “nothing really we could do”, he said.
“If I knew that the hurricane would hit while I was out here, I wouldn’t have gone at all,” he said.
“It’s hard to comprehend what we’re about to expect. I’ve never experienced any kind of hurricane, let alone a Category 5.
“The tension in the hotel last night when we went down for dinner was definitely one of nerves, even locals.”
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Hotel owner preparing for ‘catastrophic situation’
What route will Hurricane Melissa take?
Eastern Cuba is next in the path of Melissa, with tropical storm conditions expected to hit on Tuesday evening, including rainfall of up to 20 inches.
More than 500,000 people living in coastal and mountainous areas vulnerable to heavy winds and flooding have been evacuated, according to authorities.
Some 250,000 people were also accommodated in shelters around Santiago de Cuba, the second-largest city that lies right in the hurricane’s expected path.
A hurricane watch is in effect across the southeastern and central Bahamas, along with the British Overseas Territory, Turks and Caicos Islands.
They could be affected on Wednesday and the National Hurricane Centre expects flash floods with up to 8 inches of rainfall in tropical storm and hurricane conditions.
US warships in the region, the green light for covert operations, and deadly strikes on what the Trump administration claims are “narco terrorists” – could America’s next move be to strike Venezuela?
President Donald Trump has accused President Nicolas Maduro of leading an organised crime gang (without providing evidence) and declined to answer when questioned if the CIA has the authority to assassinate him.
In return, the Venezuelan leader has accused Mr Trump of seeking regime change and of “fabricating a new eternal war” against his country, as he appealed to the American people for peace.
The rhetoric coming out of the White House, coupled with the presence of military ships in the region, has raised questions about a possible armed conflict between the US and Venezuela.
The question in the air is: Will the US actually attack Venezuela?
The USS Gravely destroyer arrives in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 26 October. Pic: AP
What are US warships doing?
The docking of the USS Gravely guided missile destroyer in the capital of Trinidad and Tobago – just 25 miles from the coast of Venezuela – is the latest incident to escalate tensions.
Venezuela’s government condemned the arrival and called it a provocation by Trinidad and Tobago and the US.
The USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier – the largest warship in the world – is also moving closer to Venezuela.
Satellite image shows USS Gerald R Ford on 25 October off the coast of Croatia, a day after the announcement it would be deployed to the Caribbean. Pic: EU Copernicus
It comes as the US has acknowledged carrying out at least seven strikes since September on vessels near Venezuela that it claims were transporting drugs, killing at least 32 people.
Venezuela’s government says the strikes are illegal, amount to murder, and are acts of aggression.
Earlier this month, Trump confirmed he has authorised the CIA to carry out covert operations – including lethal operations – in Venezuela.
The CIA has a long history of operations in Latin America, with actions varying widely from direct paramilitary engagement to intelligence gathering and support roles with little to no physical footprint.
What could happen?
To get an idea of what could happen next, Sky News spoke to Dr Carlos Solar, an expert on Latin American security at the RUSI defence thinktank.
He says the level of military strategy the US is applying around Venezuela seems “unproportionate” for the task of tackling drug trafficking.
In Venezuela, the government has civilians trained in the use of weapons to defend the country in the event of a US attack. Pic: AP
“A build-up this size can only suggest there’s a strategic military goal,” he added.
Dr Solar says the role of the CIA is “not surprising”, as the US often deploys spying capabilities in countries deemed adversarial.
“With the chances of a military conflict looming, having the most intelligence capable on the ground would be reasonable.”
The world’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R Ford, has been tasked to the Caribbean. File pic: Reuters
Asked what could happen next, Dr Solar told Sky News: “One scenario is Trump authorises a round of long-range precision attacks in Venezuela’s territory linked to drug trafficking operations, eventually forcing Maduro to reciprocate later.
“We saw this early in the year when the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilitates and Tehran returned missiles to US bases in Qatar.
“If the US decides to move more strongly, destroying all critical military targets from the Venezuelan forces, then the US could have Maduro surrender and leave the country immediately.
“This would be the least disruptive without causing greater destabilisation of the country.”
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Venezuelan President: ‘We don’t want a war’
What does Trump say about Venezuela?
Trump said his reasons for the strikes on vessels were the migration of Venezuelans, allegedly including former prisoners, to the US – and drug trafficking.
“I authorised for two reasons really,” he said. “Number one, they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America…they came in through the border. They came in because we had an open border,” he told reporters. “And the other thing are drugs.”
He has accused Venezuela of trafficking huge amounts of cocaine into the US, and alleged Mr Maduro is the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang – a claim most of his own intelligence agencies do not support.
President Donald Trump is currently on a tour of Asia. Pic: Reuters
The US leader has not provided evidence for the claim about prisoners, and Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay pointed out the fentanyl drug that is causing destruction in America is largely manufactured in Mexico, not Venezuela.
“We are looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” Mr Trump added. It is not clear what actions this could entail.
The Pentagon recently disclosed to US Congress that the president has determined the US is engaged in “a non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.
When asked if the CIA has the authority to execute Maduro, which would be a massive intervention, Trump declined to answer. Instead, he said: “I think Venezuela is feeling heat.”
Read more:
Venezuela opposition leader wins Nobel Peace Prize
Trump may have another motive in escalation of war on drugs
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro. Pic: Reuters
What does Venezuela’s leader say?
Maduro has been in power since 2013, including re-elections in contests marred by accusations of fraud.
The last decade has seen his country gripped by spiralling hyperinflation and a humanitarian crisis that has seen an estimated eight million Venezuelans flee the country.
As the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier moved closer to Venezuela, Maduro accused the US government of “fabricating a new eternal war” against his country.
Venezuelan ambassador to the UN, Samuel Moncada, holds a newspaper article about a recent US military strike. Pic: Reuters
“They promised they would never again get involved in a war, and they are fabricating a war that we will avoid,” he said in a national address.
“They are fabricating an extravagant narrative, a vulgar, criminal and totally fake one,” he added, perhaps a reference to Trump’s claim that he is the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang and that his country trafficks cocaine into the US.
“Venezuela is a country that does not produce cocaine leaves.”
Members of Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Guard. Pic: Reuters
Tren de Aragua, which traces its roots to a Venezuelan prison, is not known for having a big role in global drug trafficking but instead for its involvement in contract killings, extortion, and people smuggling.
Venezuela has raised a complaint to the UN Security Council and demanded accountability from the US.
An estimated 1.2 million people a week have conversations with ChatGPT that indicate they are planning to take their own lives.
The figure comes from its parent company OpenAI, which revealed 0.15% of users send messages including “explicit indicators of potential suicide planning or intent”.
Earlier this month, the company’s chief executive Sam Altman estimated that ChatGPT now has more than 800 million weekly active users.
While the tech giant does aim to direct vulnerable people to crisis helplines, it admitted “in some rare cases, the model may not behave as intended in these sensitive situations”.
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OpenAI launches web browser
OpenAI evaluated over 1,000 “challenging self-harm and suicide conversations” with its latest model GPT-5 and found it was compliant with “desired behaviours” 91% of the time.
But this would potentially mean that tens of thousands of people are being exposed to AI content that could exacerbate mental health problems.
The company has previously warned that safeguards designed to protect users can be weakened in longer conversations – and work is under way to address this.
“ChatGPT may correctly point to a suicide hotline when someone first mentions intent, but after many messages over a long period of time, it might eventually offer an answer that goes against our safeguards,” OpenAI explained.
OpenAI’s blog post added: “Mental health symptoms and emotional distress are universally present in human societies, and an increasing user base means that some portion of ChatGPT conversations include these situations.”
Read more from Sky News:
King heckled over Prince Andrew
British airline suspends operations
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Parents suing OpenAI after death of son
A grieving family is currently in the process of suing OpenAI – and allege ChatGPT was to blame for their 16-year-old boy’s death.
Adam Raine’s parents claim the tool “actively helped him explore suicide methods” and offered to draft a note to his relatives.
Court filings suggest that, hours before he died, the teenager uploaded a photo that appeared to show his suicide plan – and when he asked whether it would work, ChatGPT offered to help him “upgrade” it.
Last week, the Raines updated their lawsuit and accused OpenAI of weakening the safeguards to prevent self-harm in the weeks before his death in April this year.
In a statement, the company said: “Our deepest sympathies are with the Raine family for their unthinkable loss. Teen wellbeing is a top priority for us – minors deserve strong protections, especially in sensitive moments.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
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