
MLB trade grades: Report cards for every major deal
More Videos
Published
2 days agoon
By
admin-
Bradford Doolittle
CloseBradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
-
David Schoenfield
CloseDavid Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Jul 31, 2025, 07:02 PM ET
It’s MLB trade season!
From the early deals that got things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for this year’s biggest trades.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade the most significant moves below.
Rangers get:
RHP Merrill Kelly
Diamondbacks get:
LHP Kohl Drake
LHP Mitch Bratt
RHP David Hagaman
Rangers grade: B-
When the Rangers won the 2023 World Series, they started the season fast, hit the skids, held on to get into the AL bracket and then caught fire again in October. This year’s team is following a very different trajectory. For much of the season, the Texas offense was so mystifyingly bad that it undermined a strong pitching staff, especially the rotation. Not long ago, it seemed very unlikely Texas would be in position to add a player of Kelly’s caliber, but here we are.
Kelly will bump one of the Rangers’ young starters — Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter — from the core-five rotation, with Rocker the most likely choice and a candidate to become, for now, a leverage reliever. If Tyler Mahle can make it back from a rotator cuff issue, they’ll both get bumped. But this is a good problem to have for a team trying to keep pace in a clustered AL wild-card chase, and an AL West race that remains up for grabs.
Kelly’s salary in this last year before he hits free agency is just $7 million and the Rangers’ portion of that won’t get them to the first luxury tax threshold and might even leave some space for more additions — preferably for the bullpen. (This assumes of course that staying under the threshold is a goal.) Kelly is a consistent No. 2-type starter who has a better career road ERA than at home after toiling so much in the hitter-ish Chase Field.
It’s a right-now upgrade, but the prospect price is pretty steep here for a player on an expiring deal who adds to an area of existing strength. Hence the solid but not superlative grade, but it’s an odds booster for the Rangers.
Diamondbacks grade: B+
Diamondbacks baseball chief Mike Hazen doesn’t mess around when he decides to subtract. The Snakes are going to look very different coming out of the deadline, and their fans have to wonder what might have been if Arizona had enjoyed better injury luck.
Drake is the standout here, a 6-5 lefty with good stuff, a deep arsenal and above-average command, he has a chance to be at least a mid-rotation starter. Hagaman is raw and, at 22, remains in the low minors as he seeks to improve his control enough to allow his lively pitches to play.
If Drake doesn’t lead this pack, Bratt does. Another lefty, Bratt was a top-10 Rangers prospect at MLB Pipeline who is having a big season in the Double-A Texas League. Bratt, 21, is very young for that level, yet is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 106 strikeouts and just 16 walks. He has given up 13 long balls. — Doolittle
Mets get:
CF Cedric Mullins
Orioles get:
RHP Anthony Nunez
RHP Raimon Gomez
RHP Chandler Marsh
Mets grade: B
Center field was an area of need for a Mets team that is all-in for a 2025 push. Mullins, a former All-Star and top-10 MVP finisher, has the pedigree of a first-division performer at that spot. And, let’s face it, the remaining options in center on the trade market were pretty limited.
Ideally, the Mets would have added a righty option in center, as their recent outfield mix of Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil consisted of all lefties, like Mullins, and righty-swinging Tyrone Taylor has had a poor season at the plate. But you have to choose from what the market yields, and Mullins is a proven guy. For what it’s worth, Mullins’ numbers against righty pitching this season are brutal. In that regard, he has the same odd platoon splits as McNeil.
The key to this deal might have been the Mets’ evaluation of where Mullins is at as a defender. The defensive rating systems differ tremendously on him in that regard, with assessment ranging from awful to above average. As it is, New York gets a quality player motivated by impending free agency, without giving up anyone it will miss.
Orioles grade: C+
All three hurlers Baltimore picked up from the Mets are righty relievers, with Nunez ranking the highest of the trio. A two-way player in college and a hitter after being drafted in the 29th round by the Padres in 2019, Nunez moved to the mound full time after signing with the Mets as a minor league free agent last season.
The switch has gone well. Nunez has a 1.80 ERA while striking out 13 batters per nine innings over the last two seasons. His success has continued all the way to his current level, Double-A, and he should be a big league relief option for the Orioles sooner than later.
It’s not the sexiest return for someone who contributed as much to the Orioles as Mullins. But he did himself and the O’s no favors with his replacement-level season to date as he approaches free agency. — Doolittle
Rays get:
RHP Griffin Jax
Twins get:
RHP Taj Bradley
Rays grade: C
It’s been a fairly stunning sequence between the Rays and Bradley. After Tampa Bay demoted the long-touted righty earlier this month, Bradley responded with seven no-hit scoreless innings in a Triple-A start on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Rays dealt Zack Littell to Cincinnati, seemingly opening the door to bring Bradley back into the big league rotation. Not so fast! Bradley’s next start will be for the Twins.
The Rays apparently became convinced that Bradley needed a change of scenery, and at the same time, they add one of the game’s most vicious relievers in Jax. It’s been a strange season for the 30-year-old righty, who sports a 4.50 ERA but a 2.00 FIP. Which is more telling? Given Jax’s 72 strikeouts in 46 innings, we’ll go with the latter. Both hurlers have multiple years of team control remaining.
The grade reflects the simple reality that I’m not sure how to process this. Generally, you don’t trade a talented 24-year-old starter for a talented 30-year-old short reliever. But the Rays generally know what they are doing.
Twins grade: B+
Getting Bradley means the Twins have locked down a deep core of rotation hurlers for the next few seasons, especially since rumors of a Joe Ryan trade didn’t come to fruition. Minnesota’s pitching program has been a good one, though of course so has Tampa Bay’s, but perhaps the Twins can unlock the potential that marked Bradley as a top prospect. With the Twins offloading everyone not nailed down over the past couple of days, the bullpen picture in particular now looks problematic with Jax joining Jhoan Duran and Louis Varland in the club of ex-Twins. — Doolittle
Red Sox get:
RHP Dustin May
Dodgers get:
OF James Tibbs III
OF Zach Ehrhard
Red Sox grade: C-
May was a key pitcher on the 2020 World Series championship team for the Dodgers, but pitched just 101 innings over the next four seasons before returning this year and posting a 4.85 ERA in 18 starts. As the ERA suggests, he hasn’t been too effective, with both a high home run rate and a high walk rate. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did back in 2020, and that shows up in how hard his sinker has been hit this season (.285 average and .633 slugging percentage).
May is heading into free agency, so this doesn’t even fit the idea of “let’s get him this season and maybe he’ll be better next year as he’s further removed from surgery.” He can join the rotation in place of Richard Fitts or even a mediocre Walker Buehler, or maybe he goes to the bullpen, where his fastball might play up a little better.
Dodgers grade: C+
Tibbs was the Giants’ first-round pick last year out of Florida State before going to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal, but he hasn’t hit much at all after a promotion to Double-A (.205/.321/.268 in 29 games). Still, the Dodgers have had success before with guys like this — think of Max Muncy and Chris Taylor — so getting him for a pitcher they didn’t need is worth the roll of the dice even if it never pans out. — Schoenfield
Astros get:
SS Carlos Correa
Twins get:
LHP Matt Mikulski
Astros grade: B
Rumors of this possible trade started floating a couple of days ago, although it still feels like a George Foreman uppercut: Whammo! To facilitate the deal, the Twins will include $33 million to help cover the remaining $103 million or so owed Correa over the rest of 2025 and the next three seasons (he also has some complicated vesting options that run through 2032).
The Astros have been hemorrhaging players via injury, including both shortstop Jeremy Pena and third baseman Isaac Paredes, but have remarkably maintained their lead in the AL West even though half the lineup looks like it should be playing for Triple-A Sugar Land (which it was not so long ago). With Pena apparently set to return on Friday, that means Correa will take over at third base — where he has never played a professional inning.
What kind of player are the Astros getting? Correa turns 31 in September and has battled injuries for years and offensive inconsistency in recent seasons. He had a strong year at the plate in 2024 but was a below-average hitter in 2023 and so far in 2025. He still has plus bat speed and above-average contact rates, but he’s hitting more balls on the ground than ever, plus his walk rate has declined. His defensive metrics at shortstop have likewise declined, although he should make a smooth and quick transition to third base.
Bottom line: Baseball Reference values him at just 0.1 WAR in 2025, FanGraphs a little higher at 1.1. He’s one year removed from being a good player, but it seems fair to suggest he’s unlikely be an elite player again given his age and injury history. Of course, a return to Houston — where Correa still lives in the offseason — could serve as a rejuvenation of sorts, as he never seemed completely comfortable with the Twins. Still, even if the trade helps the Astros in 2025, there is long-term risk here, even with the Twins paying down some of the future salary.
Going back to last offseason with the Kyle Tucker trade and letting Alex Bregman go to now bringing Correa back, it’s hard to figure out the Astros’ philosophy, and no doubt this deal might have come from owner Jim Crane, a big fan of Correa’s. One thing is clear though: The Astros keep on winning.
Twins grade: C
Well, it’s officially a crushingly disappointing season in Minnesota, with the trades of Correa, Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader. It’s hard to argue against the decision to trade away these guys given the Twins’ 51-57 record, but this feels like a setback season for an organization that has shown promise since winning 101 games in 2019 but never figured out how to get over the top (or spent a little extra money in trying to do so).
In one sense, however, this trade makes perfect sense: Correa is being paid a superstar salary, and he’s no longer a superstar. Given their self-imposed payroll cap, it might improve the Twins’ long-term chances, assuming they can properly reinvest that money in the right players. This trade is mostly about dumping the salary rather than what the Twins got in return. We could label this one incomplete until we see what the Twins do in the offseason. For now, we’ll give it a C, which sums up the Carlos Correa era in Minnesota that will end with just one playoff appearance in four seasons. — Schoenfield
Padres get:
1B/DH Ryan O’Hearn
OF Ramon Laureano
Orioles get:
RHP Boston Bateman
IF Cobb Hightower
IF/OF Victor Figueroa
RHP Tyson Neighbors
INF Brandon Butterworth
RHP Tanner Smith
Padres grade: A-
So I was a little down in my assessment of the Padres’ blockbuster with the Athletics, believing that move to be a precursor to San Diego paring payroll. Clearly, I don’t know AJ Preller at all, though I thought I did. The Padres are … all … the … way … in, with Preller patching up three lineup holes and adding dynamism to his roster on the same day.
Between his stints in Kansas City and Baltimore, O’Hearn was DFA’d several times, and entering his age-29 season, there was little to indicate he’d become a sought-after deadline target. But he found himself as an Oriole, producing all through his time in Baltimore, culminating this year with being selected as the AL’s All-Star DH. Now he has a chance to play a major role for a franchise doing everything it can to win its first-ever championship.
Meanwhile, Laureano has been even better than O’Hearn at the plate and slots into left field for San Diego, one of the weakest spots of any contending team. The Padres entered the day ranked 28th in left by wins above average, 29th at DH and dead last at catcher. They now have Laureano, O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin to upgrade those slots. Look out, Dodgers.
Orioles grade: B+
The Orioles are doing the right thing in shedding their expiring deals and adding prospects in bulk to replenish their system, especially on the pitching side. Meanwhile, in moving Ramon Urias, O’Hearn, Laureano and Cedric Mullins over the past couple of days, Baltimore can go young all around the diamond over the next two months and see what its rebuilding effort of a few years ago truly wrought.
Bateman headlines this return. A 6-8 lefty, MLB Pipeline grades him with an above-average fastball and a plus curve to go with average command. It’s a nice foundation to work from and, at 19, the second-round pick from 2024 is performing well at Low-A. — Doolittle
Astros get:
OF Jesus Sanchez
Marlins get:
SS Chase Jaworsky
RHP Ryan Gusto
OF Esmil Valencia
Astros grade: C-
More than anything, the addition of Sanchez means we aren’t likely to see much more, if any, of Jose Altuve playing left field. We’ll probably also see much less of Cooper Hummel and his career 55 OPS+. Sanchez is a second-division, platoon-level outfielder. He plays average defense on the corners, can play center in a pinch, and has decent secondary skills at the plate against righties. He doesn’t hit southpaws at all and was a bit overexposed during his time in Miami.
When Jeremy Pena returns to action, Mauricio Dubon might end up taking some of Sanchez’s time in left, especially against lefties, but that’s fine. Sanchez plugs a right-now gap for an injury-riddled team that has been flailing on offense.
Marlins grade: B
Ordinarily, I’d hammer on the Marlins for offloading a veteran regular, but as you’ve probably surmised, I’m not that sold on Sanchez as a contention-worthy regular. Jaworsky was one of the top 10 prospects in Houston, though it’s not a highly rated system. Gusto has been invaluable for the Astros in helping them work through rotation injuries. His 4.92 rookie season ERA is a bit misleading given his supporting numbers, and he’ll add to a deepening arsenal of Marlins rotation options.
It’s a sensible move for Miami, but it does merit mentioning: The Marlins might not be in the playoff race, but they have been building up momentum, and their pitching staff has been one of baseball’s hottest for more than two months. Let’s hope their deadline direction doesn’t stunt those positive developments. — Doolittle
Yankees get:
RHP David Bednar
Pirates get:
C Rafael Flores
C Edgleen Perez
OF Brian Sanchez
Yankees grade: B+
It’s no secret the Yankees desired bullpen help — usually a strength of the team, the pen ranks 21st in the majors with a 4.24 ERA, a figure that has ballooned to 6.29 in July. Closer Devin Williams has had a wildly inconsistent season after coming over from the Brewers, struggling in April, looking good for a couple of months, but now he has allowed runs in four of his past six appearances, including two home runs. Luke Weaver, who came out of nowhere last season to end up as the Yankees’ closer, hasn’t been quite as dominant either, mostly due to a high home run rate (seven in 40⅔ innings).
That suggests it’s possible Bednar even gets a crack at the closer role. After struggling out of the gate to begin the season, he has allowed just one earned run over his past 24 appearances. Bednar’s four-seamer averages 97, but it’s not necessarily a dominant pitch, as he gets most of his swing-and-miss off his curveball and a splitter that he uses effectively against lefties. While Bednar is 17-for-17 in save chances, he does have five losses, so, umm, don’t use him in a tie game?
As a bonus, Bednar also comes with another year of team control. Granted, pitching for Pittsburgh is a lot different than pitching in New York — ask Williams about the pressures of going from a small market to pitching for the Yankees, where the fans will turn on you after that first blown save — but Bednar gives Aaron Boone another late-game, high-leverage arm, no matter what role he settles into.
Pirates grade: C-
One thing the Yankees seem to do well is develop catching prospects and the Pirates got two of them in this deal. That sort of makes sense as Henry Davis, the former No. 1 pick, just hasn’t hit and Endy Rodriguez, once a top-50-ish prospect, has barely played the past two seasons. That has left journeyman Joey Bart (also once a top prospect) as the regular catcher in 2025. Trying to find a long-term solution is a good idea, although the Pirates could use help all over the diamond.
Perez was the Yankees’ No. 10 prospect, but he’s light years from the majors, a 19-year-old hitting .209 with no home runs in low-A ball. He has drawn a lot of walks, but as you might surmise, defense is his calling card. Still, unless something drastic happens with the bat, it’s hard to envision him as anything more than backup. Flores is a more offensive-minded backstop, hitting .287/.346/.496 in Double-A with 15 home runs in 335 at-bats. The analytics department will like his max exit velocity numbers (115 mph), but he’s a fringy defender who might end up as a first baseman, where the bat might not play.
Sanchez is a 20-year-old outfielder in low-A ball with some speed and not much power yet. Given some of the other returns for elite relievers, and factoring in that Bednar comes with another year of team control, it feels like a bit of a light return for the Pirates. — Schoenfield
Yankees get:
RHP Camilo Doval
Giants get:
C/3B Jesus Rodriguez
RHP Trystan Vrieling
IF Parks Harber
LHP Carlos De La Rosa
Yankees grade: B
Duval is a pure fireballer who has excelled in a closing role at times, but his job description has wavered, as does his command. He’s one of those maddening relievers who walks himself into trouble, then tries to strike his way out of it. But the arm is the real deal, and his end-of-the-day acquisition was the final piece of a completely overhauled Yankees bullpen. Now, in some order of preference, Aaron Boone can summon David Bednar, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Duval, Tim Hill and Jake Bird. The Yankees didn’t land the starter they needed, but maybe they won’t miss that pitcher now.
Giants grade: C+
The highest rated of these prospects are Rodriguez and Vrieling, but there’s no one above 18th or so in the Yankees organization. Rodriguez is the top ranked, and it seems like everyone wants to get their hands on a Yankees-developed catcher for their success in developing defensive backstops. Rodriguez is more a bat-first guy, though. Vrieling grades out as a potential league-average starter, but only if he can develop at least one standout offering. It feels more like a quantity over quality package, one that could have been meatier given Doval’s two additional seasons of team control. — Doolittle
Yankees get:
RHP Jake Bird
Rockies get:
2B Roc Riggio
LHP Ben Shields
Yankees grade: C
After earlier acquiring David Bednar, the Yankees add another bullpen option with herky-jerky-slinging Bird, who is under team control through 2028. He was one of the hottest relievers in baseball through early June when he had a 1.41 ERA, but he’s been beat up of late, with a 13.20 ERA over his past 17 appearances and a diminishing strikeout rate compared with early in the season. The Rockies worked him heavily those first two months, so the Yankees will hope that maybe less frequent usage will get him back on track. He also had little track record of success heading into the season, so there’s no guarantee he’s anything more than a low-leverage relief option.
Rockies grade: C
The Rockies get a couple long shot prospects in return. Riggio was a fourth-round pick from Oklahoma State in 2023 who is currently tearing up the minors with a .567 slugging percentage, including .542 in 40 games at Double-A. He generates surprising power from the left side despite his 5-9 frame, but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss here and he’s definitely limited to second base. Also: He has the right name for a Rockies player. Shields is old for a prospect at 26 and has battled some injuries in 2025, but he is equipped with a solid-average fastball and plus curveball and could be a late bloomer. No guarantees here, but a fair return for a marginal relief pitcher. — Schoenfield
Padres get:
RHP Mason Miller
LHP JP Sears
Athletics get:
SS Leo De Vries
RHP Braden Nett
RHP Henry Baez
RHP Eduarniel Nunez
Padres grade: B
Miller is no doubt a great talent, and Sears is a consistent source of innings. For now, the Padres’ staff looks positively loaded, but the key words in this sentence are “for now” — because this move was probably as much about payroll as talent. The Padres can prove me wrong by continuing to add, but this doesn’t feel like a typical “A.J. Preller going for it” situation.
Miller has been one of baseball’s most electric closers since being shifted to the back of the Athletics’ bullpen early last year. He might be the best reliever to move at the deadline, surpassing Ryan Helsley and Jhoan Duran, though we can debate that later. But from a pure roster need, this trade accomplishes nothing for the 2025 Padres. Worse, possible deals to come involving Robert Suarez and Dylan Cease could mean Preller’s deadline machinations prove to be a short-term net negative for a team with firm grip on a wild-card slot and the talent to go deep in the playoffs.
San Diego’s bullpen has been the best in baseball all season. Based on my rankings that rate relievers on game-by-game win probability results, the Padres have the top overall relief staff and four of the top nine individual relievers, including Suarez (No. 1), Adrian Morejon (3), Jason Adam (8) and Jeremiah Estrada (9). Miller ranks 30th, but after a slump earlier in the season, he has been hot of late.
Miller and Sears are both pre-arbitration and so don’t cost anything. If the Padres kept everyone intact, the staff would be a beast come October. And it might be anyway, but the savings that would come from moving Suarez and Cease might be enough to get San Diego under the second tax threshold. Even if that doesn’t happen, Cease is in a walk year for sure, and Suarez, who can opt out, likely is as well, as he looks to cash in on his strong season. So even if Preller deals that duo, he is still coming out ahead in terms of net controllable years.
But that doesn’t mean the Padres come out ahead in either short-term or future value. For this season, Miller plus Sears is likely a lesser combination than Suarez plus Cease. That’s rough if that’s how it turns out. And longer term, to make this deal, Preller has again pillaged his minor league system, giving up a truly elite talent in Leo De Vries (preseason No. 15 by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and current No. 3 by MLB Pipeline), just to start.
If the Padres don’t unload Cease and Suarez, this grade bumps up to a B on the strength of 2025 championship probability added. It doesn’t become an A, though, because De Vries is that strong of a prospect.
Update: As suggested, the fact that the Padres did not deal either Cease or Suarez — as the rumors and tea leaves suggested they might — changes the way this trade should be considered. Basically, the Padres have gone all-in and have done so with gusto. I still think dealing De Vries to add to a position of strength holds down the grade a bit, but it looks a lot better now than it did this morning. Payroll be damned — AJ Preller is going for it. (And we’ve raised the grade from a D- to a B.)
Athletics grade: A
I love Miller, but come on. I never wanted the Athletics to pigeonhole Miller as a short reliever, but they did, and it feels like he’s fixed there. (Though conversions, such as the Mets with Clay Holmes, have shown it’s never too late). Still, to land De Vries, just 18 and already at High-A, for a reliever is a coup. Exciting power potential, plus plate discipline, a strong arm — he’s the stuff that stars are made of. Shortly after news of this deal dropped, I received a text predicting that someday both the AL MVP (De Vries) and NL MVP (James Wood) will be prospects Preller traded. It could happen. The fans in Vegas are going to love him.
Meanwhile, the A’s add three pitching prospects. Baez and Nunez both rank in the 10 to 20 range in San Diego’s system, according to analysts, but Nett was their No. 3 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, behind De Vries and talented young catcher Ethan Salas, who at last check of my text messages remains a prospect in the San Diego system, but stay tuned.
Nett has a high-end fastball (up to 99 mph, per MLB Pipeline) to headline a five-pitch arsenal. He has struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings in the minors, albeit with ugly walk rates that underscore so-so grades for command. But those walk rates have improved each season, and he’s not far off from his big league debut. It’s an impressive haul for the A’s. — Doolittle
Padres get:
C Freddy Fermin
Royals get:
RHP Ryan Bergert
RHP Stephen Kolek
Padres grade: B
The Padres had the worst catching situation in baseball, at least at the big league level. They rank 30th in WAR at that spot for the season to date and are projected to rank 30th there in the rest-of-season forecast. So upgrading the position was both necessary and hard to do. San Diego did well in nabbing the underrated Fermin, a dynamic defensive backstop with an elite ability to control the running game.
He’s no great shakes on offense but does feature good contact ability to pair with his aggressive approach. It’s enough to make him better than what San Diego was working with. Fermin is in the final season of his pre-arbitration window and should move into a mostly everyday role for Mike Shildt over the rest of the season. Assuming Fermin is still around when Ethan Salas is ready for the majors, Fermin is an ideal No. 2 backstop.
Kolek and, especially, Bergert have pitched well, helping the Padres navigate through rotation injuries. That AJ Preller dealt them on the same day he acquired JP Sears from the A’s is particularly interesting because it leaves Preller once again with a clear five-man core rotation, at least until Michael King is healthy. If this means San Diego is going to hold onto Dylan Cease, it’s all the better.
Royals grade: B+
Fermin was the most popular Freddy/Freddie in Kansas City since Patek and has played a key role over the past two seasons. His ability to produce on both sides of the plate, especially defensively, has allowed the Royals to move Salvador Perez around to first base and DH more often. But the Royals can afford to part with Fermin thanks to the deepest set of catching prospects around, a group that includes 21-year-old Carter Jensen, who has clubbed eight homers and put up a .938 OPS over his first 22 games in Triple-A.
Meanwhile, injuries to Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen created a short-term need in the rotation. The Royals have had excellent luck in working with acquired veteran starters — especially former Padre Seth Lugo — and will attempt to do the same for Bergert and Kolek. It’s a win-win trade for two teams trying to plug holes for the stretch run. — Doolittle
Phillies get:
OF Harrison Bader
Twins get:
OF Hendry Mendez
RHP Geremy Villoria
Phillies grade: B-
This fits into the “logical but low-impact” department. The Phillies rank 22nd in OPS from center field (Brandon Marsh has been OK, but Johan Rojas hasn’t hit at all) and 26th in OPS from left field (mostly Max Kepler). Bader can slot into either position. He played mostly left field for the Twins with Byron Buxton in center, but he is probably a defensive upgrade over Marsh, so he could push Marsh over to left field. It’s not a perfect alignment since Marsh and Kepler both bat left-handed, but Bader gives the Phillies a much-needed right-handed bat and improves the overall depth.
The issue here is that Bader is having his best offensive season since 2021 — and the Statcast metrics don’t back up those numbers, with an expected batting average of .225 and expected slugging of .385, compared to actual figures of .258 and .439. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his production dip the rest of the season, more in line with what he’s done in recent years. He has always been better in a part-time role, so while he might get the opportunity to play on a regular basis, it’s possible Bader ends up back in a platoon role, with Kepler and Marsh getting the bulk of the at-bats against righties. Still, with a limited number of right-handed bats available, Bader is a nice get for Dave Dombrowski and a clear upgrade over Rojas.
Twins grade: C
Mendez is a 21-year-old left-handed hitter, the Phillies’ No. 8 prospect. He has good contact skills and is hitting .290 at Double-A Reading, but that’s a great hitter’s park — he is hitting just .259 on the road. He is also limited to a corner outfield position and hasn’t delivered much impact, so he looks like a tweener, lacking the defensive chops for center and the power for a corner position.
Villoria is — get this — a 16-year-old right-hander. He has pitched 14 innings in the Dominican Summer League and has fanned 19 batters. He could be anything, the very definition of a lottery ticket — hey, sometimes those players turn into Fernando Tatis Jr. or Junior Caminero. Check back in a few years on him. — Schoenfield
Blue Jays get:
RHP Shane Bieber
Guardians get:
RHP Khal Stephen
Blue Jays grade: B+
Over the past two seasons, Bieber has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 20-1 in the majors. Unfortunately, that’s been compiled over just two starts, two sparkling outings early in the 2024 season. This season, Bieber has a ratio of 21-1 in the minors. Unfortunately, that’s been compiled over just four outings.
Those small sample observations do a nifty job of illustrating both the risk and the reward of this deal for the Blue Jays, who gave up real prospect talent in Stephen. When he pitches, Bieber is one of the best, an almost impossible combination of command and the ability to work in the zone without damage. But the stress his vicious arsenal puts on his elbow has kept him from putting that ability on display.
Bieber’s last rehab outing was Tuesday, when he threw 57 pitches over four innings, striking out seven and (of course) walking none. He did give up a homer to a young guy named Jake Holton, who will surely cherish the memory. Bieber has been ramping up after experiencing elbow soreness earlier this season, delaying his return. Obviously, for this deal to become official, the Jays will have to be satisfied with Bieber’s medicals.
Bieber has a team option for 2026 ($16 million with a $4 million buyout), which justifies the inclusion of Stephen in the deal. If he pitches — not an insignificant “if” — he would play a major role in aiding Toronto’s effort to get back to the World Series for the first time since the early 1990s. The Jays still need to add to their bullpen, however, among other areas.
Guardians grade: C+
As ever, the Guardians spin things forward, cashing in on the remaining value of Bieber’s contract and shedding the risk attached to his injury history. I still don’t love it, as I’m weary of franchises like this that are well run for the most part but too often seem satisfied to tread water. Cleveland always seems to be on the cusp of breaking through, only to back off. The Guardians aren’t out of this year’s chase, yet this is very much a move for the future.
That’s what holds back this grade, not the return of Stephen, a second-round pick by Toronto last year. His numbers this season in the minors are eye-popping: 9-1, 2.06 ERA over 91⅔ innings and 99 strikeouts against just 18 walks. That’s stretched out across three levels, including his Double-A debut July 20. He has average-to-better grades on four pitches and his command, but no real elite offering. He works in the low-to-mid 90s, so he’s not a burner. And he’s not Shane Bieber. — Doolittle
Mariners get:
3B Eugenio Suarez
Diamondbacks get:
1B Tyler Locklear
RHP Juan Burgos
RHP Hunter Cranton
Mariners grade: A
Just a couple of days after acquiring Josh Naylor from the Diamondbacks, the Mariners go back to their frequent trade partner and get the best power bat available at the deadline — and not just the best available, but one of the best sluggers in the game. Suarez is fifth in the majors with 36 home runs (and there’s a big gap to the next guy with 27), giving the Mariners MLB’s top home run duo now with Suarez and Cal Raleigh.
This hasn’t merely been a hot stretch for Suarez. Going back to last July when he made some adjustments (moving closer to the plate and opening up his stance), Suarez ranks fourth in the majors with 60 home runs and sixth in OPS, hitting .276/.336/.594 in 184 games.
Yes, his strikeout rate remains high at 26.8%, although that’s still lower than the 31% it was at during his first stint with the Mariners in 2022-23. There’s also some concern about his ability to catch up to good fastballs — he’s hitting .224 and slugging .408 against fastballs 95-plus mph — but the Mariners’ lineup now projects as one of the best in the game with the two trade additions (Seattle already ranks third in the majors in road OPS, although just 26th in home OPS).
Give Jerry Dipoto some credit here. He acquired Suarez and Naylor without giving up any of Seattle’s top 10 prospects — a group that includes seven or eight top-100 overall prospects — or rookie second baseman Cole Young, who was a top 100 guy before graduating to the majors earlier this season.
It will be interesting to see where Suarez plays. He’s a below-average third baseman, so he could get a lot of DH time — except when Raleigh plays there — as the Mariners could opt to keep slick-fielding rookie Ben Williamson at third base as much as possible. Something to monitor: If Suarez plays third, an infield of Suarez, J.P. Crawford and Jorge Polanco at second would feature three players with subpar range.
Still, Mariners fans should be happy here. While Dipoto has always been aggressive in making trades, ownership has never been aggressive in letting him bring on salary. That happened this time, and while the Astros hold a comfortable five-game lead in the AL West, Houston is vulnerable given all its injuries. The Mariners last made the playoffs in 2022 — but they fell one game short of the playoffs in 2024, one game short in 2023 and were still alive entering the final day in 2021. The hope now is Suarez and Naylor finally get them over that hump and have the M’s playing October baseball for just the second time since 2001.
Diamondbacks grade: C
Given Suarez’s impact power and the need of several playoff contenders at third base, this return feels a little low — especially given the arguably bigger returns for rental relievers Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley. But Mike Hazen saw his list of potential trade partners limited after the Yankees acquired Ryan McMahon, the Reds traded for Ke’Bryan Hayes and the Cubs and Tigers perhaps focused just on adding pitching. By waiting, the Diamondbacks might have received less than what they could have a few days ago.
That might be underselling Locklear though. A right-handed hitter who was drafted out of VCU in the second round in 2022, he fills both a need at first base with Naylor gone and is ready for the majors, hitting .316/.401/.542 at Triple-A Tacoma. He was slow out of the gate, with just three home runs at the end of May, but he’s popped 16 since then, including hitting a robust hitting .422 with nine home runs in July. Maybe he has figured something out.
He should get a run at first the rest of the season and projects as a potential league average-ish first baseman for the future. That’s not necessarily the sexiest of profiles, but the Diamondbacks get a little more certainty and proximity to the majors, which is sometimes the smarter approach rather than gambling on a player further away with more upside. The Diamondbacks also have a replacement ready for Suarez in top prospect Jordan Lawlar, who will finally get his own turn of extended playing time in the majors since he has been blocked by Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop.
Burgos could also be in the bullpen the rest of the season. He has a 0.87 ERA in the minors, allowing just 14 hits in 31 innings, and made four appearances with the Mariners. His fastball sits 96 and touches higher, although it didn’t miss a ton of bats in the minors (31 strikeouts). — Schoenfield
Red Sox get:
LHP Steven Matz
Cardinals get:
1B/3B Blaze Jordan
Red Sox grade: C+
It’s been a decade since Matz broke in as part of the vaunted Mets’ rotation in the mid-2010s, and he has made the full journey from starter to mostly bullpen work. The Cardinals have used Matz as a five-or-six-out reliever for the most part, and that kind of length will help bridge the middle innings for Boston. Unless, of course, the Red Sox want to stretch out Matz as a No. 5 starter or swing pitcher. In recent seasons, Matz’s numbers have been much better working out of the bullpen.
Matz has pretty extreme splits, and in a different era, he might have ended up as one of those onetime starters who morph into lefty specialists, a la Rick Honeycutt. But teams can’t do that anymore, and so Alex Cora will have to figure out how that profile might work when Matz faces righty fly ball hitters at Fenway Park. All in all, Matz is a versatile pitcher with still-identifiable strengths who deepens the Boston staff. He’s not really a needle mover, but it took only an unranked prospect to land him in advance of his looming free agency.
Cardinals grade: C+
This might have been a harsher grade a week ago, but St. Louis continues to be one of baseball’s coldest teams. Meanwhile, the Padres have gone on a pre-deadline spree, which makes the dwindling hopes for fringe wild-card chasers such as St. Louis, San Francisco and Miami that much fainter. Thus, it makes sense to get something for Matz.
Jordan qualifies as something. An unathletic corner infielder, the FanGraphs scouting report compares him to Ryon Healy. He has risen steadily one level at time after being drafted out of high school, and so has reached Triple-A at age 22. His strikeout rates suggest good bat-to-ball ability, but his power and walk numbers portend limited secondary skills for a player whose bat is going to have to carry him.
Still, he’s got a great name and could develop into a useful, lefty-mashing role player in the majors, the kind of performer the Cardinals have often gotten good mileage from in the past. — Doolittle
Astros get:
3B Ramon Urias
Orioles get:
RHP Twine Palmer
Astros grade: B-
The injury to Isaac Paredes left a thin and depleted Astros lineup even shorter, and with Paredes out for a while, Houston was in bad need of a stopgap. Enter Urias, a persistently league-average type performer who raises the rest-of-the-season floor for the Astros, whose offense has been ice-cold. While there were splashier names on the possible target list, Urias is a serviceable regular who didn’t cost much in terms of prospect return.
It’ll be interesting to see where Houston turns from here as it tries to piece things together with its AL West lead narrowing. The Astros need more offense and could use a rotation upgrade as well. But depending on where you look, it’s unclear how much room they have to work with under the first luxury tax threshold.
Orioles grade: B-
The Orioles have been turning the page on 2025’s disappointing roster. The bittersweet part of it for Baltimore fans is the offense has finally started to roll, but even if that keeps up, there’s probably not enough pitching left to sustain a miracle run. In the meantime, the departure of Urias opens up opportunities for both Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo for the rest of the season, something that could be especially true if the Orioles deal Ryan O’Hearn.
Palmer is a flier. At 6-5, he was a 19th-round pick out of an Oklahoma community college last year. He has steadily added velocity over the past couple of years, and while his command is not great right now, he has missed bats and, at 20, is worth a shot. He is yet to enter anyone’s top 30 just yet, but FanGraph’s James Fegan notes that Palmer has a funky “Josh Collmenter arm slot” — basically the ball seems to appear from behind his head because of an extreme over-the-top delivery — so that’s interesting. — Doolittle
Reds get:
RHP Zack Littell
Rays get:
C Hunter Feduccia
RHP Brian Van Belle
Dodgers get:
LHP Adam Serwinowski
RHP Paul Gervase
C Ben Rortvedt
Reds grade: C-
The Reds made a pair of trades Wednesday for solid big league players who don’t really address the needs Cincinnati seemed to have as the deadline approaches. In the case of Ke’Bryan Hayes, at least we can point to a defensive upgrade and perhaps a boost to the overall run prevention. At first blush, it’s hard to see what exactly Littell upgrades for the Reds, and the fit between player and venue is a little concerning.
The Reds’ rotation has been one of the best in the majors this season, and they’ve reached that status despite the groin injury suffered by ace Hunter Greene in early June. Prospect Chase Burns has made six starts during Greene’s absence and as exciting as his stuff looks, he also looks like someone who needs a bit more seasoning. That might create a rotation need but Greene threw 50 pitches in a rehab outing at Triple-A on Tuesday and should be back in the majors soon.
I have questions.
— Are the Reds going to a six-man rotation? If so, why?
— Are they going to bump someone from the rotation for Littell? The most likely candidate would be Brady Singer, but it’s unclear that Littell is better. If he is, it is a marginal difference, especially since Littel is a pitcher leading the AL in homers allowed who is now moving to a homer haven of a ballpark.
— Are the Reds going to move someone from the rotation to boost the bullpen? Singer might work there, as would Nick Martinez. It might be better to just trade for a reliever.
Another possibility is that Cincinnati was trying to create extra depth for the rotation to use a starter in a deal of a middle-of-the-order bat. If that happens, then maybe the grade for this deal changes. It’s nothing against Littell, a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a 4.92 FIP. Barring related moves to come, it just seems like an odd move for the Reds, who still haven’t addressed their top need: a middle-of-the-order bat.
Rays grade: B-
The Rays are never shy about moving players on expiring deals. After being one of baseball’s hottest teams for several weeks, the Rays have fallen hard over the past month. After dropping a tough extra-innings decision to the Yankees on Wednesday, Tampa Bay finds itself in a quagmire of .500 teams trying to climb back into the AL wild-card picture.
Losing Littell probably hurts a rotation that also just lost Taj Bradley, who was demoted after his struggles dragged on a little too long. Bradley could come back, of course, but he hasn’t had time to iron anything out just yet. It matters because whatever trades the Rays make, they aren’t out of the wild-card chase.
Van Belle profiles as a depth guy who doesn’t have a track record with a lot of swing and miss. He has worked as both a starter and a reliever in the minors since signing as an undrafted free agent in 2020, the year of the truncated draft. He commands his pitches and given the Rays targeted him, there is likely something in his arsenal they feel they can sharpen.
Feduccia has been around a while in the Dodgers’ system, where he’s been stuck behind higher-profile prospects. Now 28, he has just seven big league games on his ledger. The Rays must like his defense since they value that above all else in their catchers, and he is a lefty swinger who can pair in a quasi-platoon with newly acquired Nick Fortes if Tampa Bay things Feduccia is a right-now big leaguer and more appealing than Matt Thaiss.
Both prospects have the tools, and the Rays love to work with players with tools.
Dodgers grade: B+
It’s not a splashy trade for the Dodgers but more an opportunistic one as their depth at catcher enabled them to sweeten Cincinnati’s pot for Littell. Rortvedt is a depth, defense-first backstop who can take Feduccia’s place in Oklahoma City and be ready if someone gets hurt. Gervase is a 6-foot-10 combo righty who posted huge strikeout rates in the minors. His extension on the mound, as you might guess for someone of his size, ranks in the 99th percentile, per Statcast.
The plum of the deal is the lefty Serwinowski, who landed in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent set of team top 10 prospect lists. He is just 21 and has been pitching in High-A for the Reds. His numbers are rough, but his strikeout rates are promising for a starter, so the Dodgers will plug him into their machinery and see what happens.
Cubs get:
RHP Michael Soroka
Nationals get:
OF Christian Franklin
IF Ronny Cruz
Cubs grade: C
The Chicago Cubs are looking for pitching help, with a starting pitcher the priority, but Soroka can help in any role. The Washington Nationals used him exclusively as a starter — he’s 3-8 with a 4.87 ERA in 16 starts — but with solid peripherals, including an 87-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio (despite a league-leading 14 hit batters that eat into that), plus a .224 batting average allowed that is right in line with his expected average of .218.
He has done it despite an underwhelming arsenal that relies primarily on a four-seam fastball that batters have slugged .537 against, and a slurve that is essentially a new pitch for Soroka this year. He throws it 35% of the time and batters have hit just .124 against it. He mixes in a changeup against lefties and a two-seamer, but it’s four-seamer/slurve about 80% of the time. It’s back-end starter stuff and results, and he has made it through six innings just four times. Put him in front of the Cubs’ defense, however, and that ERA could decrease, which would make him an upgrade over Ben Brown and maybe Colin Rea.
The Cubs might still look for another starter, in which case Soroka is a nice depth piece for the pen. Working in relief for the White Sox last year, his middling fastball played up and he fanned 60 batters in just 36 innings, so he could be a more viable weapon in relief.
Nationals grade: B
Most of these prospects in these trades won’t pan out, but the Nationals at least got a couple semi-interesting position players for a rental back-end starter. Franklin is in Triple-A, hitting .265/.393/.427. He’s already 25, so there’s not likely any growth here and there was zero room for him on the Cubs, but the former University of Arkansas outfielder has some on-base skills and projects as a fourth outfielder.
Cruz moved to Florida from the Dominican Republic when he was 16 and the Cubs took him in the third round of the 2024 draft. He’s hitting .270/.314/.431 in rookie ball. He’ll spend most of the season at 18 and while he has shown raw power in batting practice from a 6-foot-2 frame, it hasn’t translated to game action yet with two home runs in 174 at-bats. The bat-to-ball skills have been a little better than expected (18% strikeout rate), so he has at least made himself somebody to keep an eye on. — Schoenfield
Mets get:
RHP Ryan Helsley
Cardinals get:
IF Jesus Baez
RHP Nate Dohm
RHP Frank Elissalt
Mets grade: B
Aside from closer Edwin Diaz, the New York Mets‘ bullpen has scuffled since the beginning of June with a 4.81 ERA, so it’s no surprise that David Stearns, president of baseball operations, has been aggressive in adding some much-needed depth, acquiring Tyler Rogers earlier Wednesday from the San Francisco Giants and later two-time All-Star Helsley (after also adding lefty Gregory Soto on Friday). The two right-handers are opposites in stuff, with the side-arming Rogers the softest thrower in the majors with his 83 mph sinker while Helsley lights up the radar gun with a fastball that averages 99.3 mph.
Despite that velocity, that pitch has been hit hard in 2025, as Helsley has allowed a .406 average against it — the reason he hasn’t been quite as dominant as in his All-Star seasons of 2022 and 2024. But his slider has always been his bread-and-butter pitch, and it’s still a wipeout offering as batters have hit .092 against it with a 45% whiff rate. After a rough patch in early June when he blew three consecutive save chances, he has looked better of late, giving up only one run over his past 11 appearances. If he’s your third righty out of the pen, that’s probably a good sign.
Though the high-leverage part of the pen is righty-heavy with Diaz, Rogers, Helsley, Reed Garrett and Ryne Stanek, the Mets do have two lefties in Soto and Brooks Raley. The important thing to note is they will need all of these guys, as manager Carlos Mendoza has had one of the quickest hooks in the majors with his starters (the Mets are fifth in rotation ERA but 25th in innings pitched). That was part of the problem the past couple of months, as Mendoza rode his key guys too hard. With these additions, they’ve gone from a bullpen with a great closer and questionable depth to now one of the best pens in the majors. We’ve seen teams ride their bullpens to October success and Stearns has now put the Mets in position to do that.
Cardinals grade: A-
The St. Louis Cardinals were 8-15 in July entering Wednesday, no doubt changing their thinking from playoff contender to playoff pretender and leading to this trade. Baez is the headline prospect, No. 5 on Kiley McDaniel’s list of the top 10 prospects in a deep Mets system. The 20-year-old has played all over the infield — he’s probably headed to third base in the long run — and is hitting .244/.334/.406 in High-A.
He has plus bat speed and some high-end exit velocity readings, and despite being young for his league, he has kept his strikeout rate in check at just 16%. Though the numbers don’t necessarily jump out, his .740 OPS is well above the South Atlantic League average of .672. He’s hardly a sure thing, but the upside here makes Baez a nice return for a reliever with an expiring contract.
Dohm is the better of the two pitching prospects, a third-round pick last year out of Mississippi State who has a 2.87 ERA as a starter across two levels of A-ball. He has been handled carefully after his junior season in college was cut short because of a forearm strain, but he’s a fastball-heavy pitcher with a good slider. He was up to 99 mph as a reliever for the Bulldogs, so that could be his ultimate destination.
In the end, I think the Cardinals read the trade market correctly: The price for relievers has looked pretty high so far, and while they are only five games out of a wild-card spot, they’re trending in the wrong direction, with no real signs that they’ll snap out of it. — Schoenfield
Phillies get:
RHP Jhoan Duran
Twins get:
C Eduardo Tait
RHP Mick Abel
Phillies grade: A
Is this classic David Dombrowski, or what? The Philadelphia Phillies, despite holding one of baseball’s best records, have a saves leader in Jordan Romano who has only eight with a 6.81 ERA. They’ve mixed and matched in high-leverage spots, not only save situations, with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering emerging as the most reliable performers. Take those two, slot them in behind Duran, and how much prettier does that postseason picture look?
Duran might end up as the most valuable reliever dealt at the deadline, trumping the New York Mets‘ deal earlier in the day for Tyler Rogers. Perhaps noticing this, the Mets almost immediately responded by also acquiring Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if the “most valuable traded reliever” title is up for debate, Duran will definitely be in the mix.
He’s arguably a better fit for Philadelphia than Helsley would’ve been, anyway, because Duran makes about half the money in 2025 and the Phillies are paying the maximum penalty in luxury tax (110% on payroll added from here) that the CBA allows. Duran also has three more years of team control (arbitration seasons) after 2025. The Phillies have a new closer and it’s not just for the stretch run of this season.
In dealing Tait and Abel, president of baseball operations Dombrowski dealt two of his top-10 prospects (Nos. 4 and 5) but he didn’t deal Andrew Painter, whose name reportedly kept popping up on the Minnesota Twins‘ wish list. But dealing prospects is what Dombrowski does — along with winning pennants.
For the Phillies, it’s all about August, September and beyond. Their chances to navigate those crucial months just increased considerably.
Twins grade: B
Abel and Tait are excellent prospects that make the Twins’ system deeper and raise its ceiling. Abel, 23, has already played at the big league level and should help the Twins’ rotation from the outset. He’s a classic long (6-foot-5), hard-throwing righty with good extension who, so far, has been hit pretty hard on contact — but he’s just getting started.
Tait has generally been the higher ranked of the two and is one of the 10 best catching prospects. He’s also still a month shy of his 19th birthday, so unless the Twins put him on the really fast track, he’ll be climbing the ranks for a bit. His bat is exciting, with a good base of raw power and a better-than-average hit tool. Most analysts like his arm behind the plate but suggest he needs to learn the finer points of catching to stick at that crucial spot.
It’s a good return, and the value exchange is reasonable for both sides. But given the clamor that had to exist for a player with Duran’s stuff, closing experience and service-time level, it feels as if the Twins could have come out with more of a decided edge on the value standpoint. If they were going to trade Duran, they needed to be truly wowed and I’m not convinced this trade does that. Otherwise, I’d just as soon retain one of the game’s best relievers.
Clearly, the Twins’ evaluators buy into the considerable upside of Tait and the ongoing progress of Abel. If they’re right about that, this “B” can become an “A” easily enough. — Doolittle
Mets get:
RHP Tyler Rogers
Giants get:
OF Drew Gilbert
RHP Jose Butto
RHP Blade Tidwell
Mets grade: C+
Let’s get the important part out of the way first: Of the nine other identical twin combos in MLB history, none of the others was traded on the same day. So, the Rogers twins — who look so much alike as long as they aren’t on the mound — are the first, after Taylor was dealt from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh earlier in the day. That aspect of the grade gets an A+.
The rest of it I’m not so sure about, though Tyler Rogers is without a doubt a significant upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, giving them a really nice trio at the back of the bullpen with closer Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett. Deepening the high-leverage contingent was a must-do item for David Stearns at this deadline, so that box has been checked, though more would be nice.
All three in that trio are righties, but they have very different arm slots and pitch mixes, so they should complement each other well. In terms of performance, Rogers has been on point this season with a 1.80 ERA over 50 innings, with 38 whiffs and just four walks. On the other hand, Rogers is in a walk year, and that’s an awful lot of controllable talent to give up for two months and a postseason of a short reliever.
On the other other hand, if Rogers ends up pitching in late-October spots with a high championship-leverage index — and succeeds — Mets fans won’t sweat whatever the three young players headed for San Francisco end up doing. In the meantime, Stearns has freed up room on New York’s 40-man roster that he might need over the next 24 or so hours.
Giants grade: A-
The Giants aren’t out of the race, and while it’s easy to see dealing a key reliever as an act of white flag waving, the actuarial aspect of this deal was simply too good for Buster Posey to pass up. San Francisco’s playoff odds were at 12% in my system through Tuesday night, and while that’s not impossible, Posey is doing the right thing by (presumably) playing both sides of the fence. The Giants’ bullpen has been fantastic this season and is weakened by the loss of Rogers, but there’s still enough there to get back into the playoff chase if San Francisco snaps out of its extended slump.
Gilbert, the Mets’ No. 8 prospect, is the headliner: a good-defending outfielder with a strong enough arm that he can play anywhere in the grass. His offensive profile lacks a statistical standout, and as he will turn 25 in September, the Giants are likely going to push him along as quickly as they can.
Tidwell has good stuff, with a slider as his strong point, but his command has wavered during this development. It’s been better this year, and he made his first four big league appearances earlier this season. He has been a starter, but his fastball-slider combo gives him the flexibility to fill a key bullpen role if that’s the direction the Giants want to go.
Butto has the most big league experience of the three. He had been a combo-type hurler in the majors for the Mets until working exclusively in a medium-leverage role this season. He’ll likely fill Rogers’ role in the San Francisco bullpen for now, but with multiple controllable seasons left on his service-time clock, there’s a lot the Giants can do with him.
Rogers was terrific, but this haul was too good for Posey to refuse. — Doolittle
Yankees get:
OF Austin Slater
White Sox get:
RHP Gage Ziehl
Yankees grade: C+
The Yankees need outfield help. Slater is an outfielder, a veteran, with an easy-to-peg if limited set of strengths. The offense is short right now with Aaron Judge on the injured list, and while Slater is a Lilliputian to Judge’s Gulliver, he plays a decent corner outfield and hits lefty pitchers at an above-average rate, owning a .798 career OPS against southpaws and .859 this season. The recent pickup of Amed Rosario now looks like one that gives fellow recent pickup Ryan McMahon a platoon partner at third base, so Slater should have a steady role on the grass until Judge returns, and perhaps after as a platoon partner for Trent Grisham, with Judge playing some in center.
Eventually, we’ll find out whether losing Ziehl was too steep of a price to pay for adding a role player for two months and the postseason, but the Yankees are putting together a deep and balanced bench — provided their cornerstone players are healthy when October arrives. At the very least, Slater’s addition reduces the chances of the Yankees asking Giancarlo Stanton to figure out where his outfield glove has been stored.
White Sox grade: B
Ziehl hails from upstate New York, not far from the southern shore of Lake Ontario, and if he emerges as a big league pitcher, it looks as if he’ll do so just off the western shore of Lake Michigan now that he’s Chris Getz’s latest prospect acquisition for Chicago.
According to the prospect gurus, Ziehl relies on decent velocity with plus command and a plus sweeper-style slider as the foundation of his arsenal. A standout on the excellent Miami Hurricanes’ staff, Ziehl prospered in high-level competition as a collegian. This year marks his first taste of professional game action, and the results have been just so-so.
But the White Sox had very little use for Slater’s services except for this precise purpose: to add depth to the Chicago farm system via a trade deadline deal. Given Slater’s lack of everyday-player utility, this seems like a solid return. — Doolittle
Reds get:
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
Pirates get:
SS Sammy Stafura
LHP Taylor Rogers
Reds grade: C-
The Reds have been one of the 57 teams mentioned as having interest in one-time Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who certainly would have been a more direct response to the Reds’ acute need for a middle-of-the-order bat. Hayes, whose sub-.300 slugging percentage stirs fond memories of 1970s-era shortstops, is not that.
He is, however, a Platinum Glove-level defender at the hot corner and, as they say, a run saved is as good as a run scored. Cincinnati has been playing Noelvi Marte at third base recently, and while Marte is having his best season at the plate, his defensive marks have been consistently below average and he has the positional versatility to rove around the field, as do most of the Reds’ other corner players.
Hayes doesn’t move around the field, but you don’t want him to. His value is as a defensive vacuum on the left side of the infield, one who will team with Elly De La Cruz to form one of the more dynamic infield duos around. The four years and $30 million Hayes has left on the extension he signed early in his career should be team-friendly, but he’s got to hit more than he has the past two campaigns amid ongoing back issues. For what it’s worth, Great American Ballpark is the only park other than PNC in which he’s hit more than two career homers. If the bat doesn’t pick up though, the Reds have likely acquired a long-term underwater contract.
Getting the Pirates to take on the remainder of Rogers’ expiring deal (the prorated remainder of his $12 million salary) likely sweetened the prospect return for Pittsburgh, while possibly freeing up the Reds’ payroll for further pursuits of that needed power bat.
Pirates grade: B
It sure seemed like the Pirates had developed their long-term third baseman when Hayes arrived and signed that extension, but the collapse of his bat ended that notion. Some teams might be able to carry a great-defending, poor-hitting corner player, but the Pirates need offense wherever they can get it. Getting out of their commitment to Hayes at least gives them a chance to find a more productive solution at his position.
Stafura, who just missed Cincinnati’s top 10 in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent prospect rankings could well be that guy. Or he might be the Pirates’ shortstop of the future, giving Pittsburgh the option of deploying elite prospect Konnor Griffin in center field.
Stafura is an athletic infielder with plus speed and an above-average defensive profile, good enough to stick at short according to most prospect analysts. His offensive profile is a little murky. He has exceptional plate discipline, but the question is whether he’ll make enough consistent contact in the majors to maintain the high OBPs he’s posted as a professional. Either way, he deepens Pittsburgh’s prospect base. — Doolittle
Brewers get:
C Danny Jansen (from Rays)
Rays get:
C Nick Fortes (from Marlins)
IF Jadher Areinamo (from Brewers)
Marlins get:
OF Matthew Etzel (from Rays)
Brewers grade: B
This might seem like a bizarre trade for the Brewers because they already have a solid catcher in William Contreras, but it looks like they are trying to cover all of their bases as they look toward a potential deep run in October. A question that a playoff-caliber team should consider: What happens if our starting catcher gets injured?
That’s pertinent for the Brewers because Contreras has played through a broken finger on his glove hand that he suffered in early May. That perhaps explains his lower offensive production this year, and he has struggled since the beginning of June, hitting just .229 with one home run in 44 games.
Jansen provides an upgrade over Eric Haase in the Brewers’ backup slot and could take some playing time from Contreras, who has started 87 of the Brewers’ 105 games. Jansen is a low-average hitter who can occasionally homer, hitting .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs. It’s not a major move on paper, but it’s a smart one from one of the best front offices in the game.
Rays grade: C+
The Rays had big problems during the past couple of seasons with their catcher production, which led them to sign Jansen in the offseason to a one-year deal worth $8 million with a $12 million mutual option. The change from Jansen to Fortes makes sense from the Rays’ perspective: They were unlikely to pick up their half of that 2026 option, so with Fortes under team control through 2028, they at least have a semi-solution for the foreseeable future.
The only issue is that Fortes struggles at the plate, with a career line of .225/.277/.344, and he’s even worse if you look at his numbers since 2023. He is a good defensive catcher, ranking high in Statcast’s framing runs saved despite his limited playing time, so he at least provides a replacement.
Areinamo, who was traded for Jansen, was Milwaukee’s No. 24 prospect, via MLB.com. He’s a 21-year-old who has played all three infield positions at High-A, hitting .297/.355/.463 with 11 home runs. He’s undersized at 5-foot-8 with a strange bat whip as the pitcher delivers the pitch, but he has generated excellent contact rates and has performed in the low minors. He looks like a good sleeper prospect — and we know the Rays have thrived on acquiring those kinds of players (although they’ve made some mistakes as well, like trading Cristopher Sanchez to the Phillies).
Marlins grade: C
The Marlins deal from an organizational strength in trading Fortes. Rookies Agustin Ramirez and Liam Hicks have emerged as a solid backstop duo (with Ramirez getting a lot of DH time), plus they also have Joe Mack, one of their top prospects, in Triple-A.
Etzel was the Rays’ No. 28 prospect, via MLB.com, but the 23-year-old lefty-hitting outfielder has struggled in Double-A, hitting .230/.360/.347 with five home runs in 196 at-bats. He has been out since June 20 because of an injury. He was originally acquired last season from the Baltimore Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. Etzel has plus speed and takes some walks, but he has played only the corner outfield in Double-A, so he looks like a tweener — not enough power for a corner position, not enough defense for center.
More proof that poor-hitting catchers have limited trade value, even if they’re excellent defensive catchers. — Schoenfield
Tigers get:
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Randy Dobnak
Twins get:
C Enrique Jimenez
Tigers grade: D
The Detroit Tigers have been stumbling of late, going 2-12 since July 9 (and 21-25 since June 3 if you want to go back a bit further) — and it hasn’t been just a little stumble. They’ve been outscored 93-to-43 in this 14-game stretch, with the starting rotation posting a 5.59 ERA — and that’s including Tarik Skubal‘s numbers (although he did have one mediocre start in there).
The bullpen has been even worse, with a 7.93 ERA in this stretch and 5.03 since the beginning of June. Though it makes sense for the Tigers to acquire some pitching help, Paddack hardly projects as anything more than someone who might chew up a few extra innings beyond what they’ve been getting from their current back-end starters. He’s 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA for the Minnesota Twins, including a 5.40 ERA on the road, where his home run rate has spiked.
Paddack does throw strikes and has pitched at least five innings in 17 of 21 starts this season, but batters are hitting .266 with a .753 OPS off him. He’s a below-average starter, but probably a minor upgrade over Keider Montero, who has allowed 10 runs in 8⅓ innings over his past two starts and was sent down to the minors, or rookie Troy Melton, who made his first career start last week and got hammered by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Meanwhile, Dobnak is just a salary dump for the Twins — he wasn’t even on their 40-man roster and has a 7.12 ERA in Triple-A.
This is just one move for the Tigers. It’s not game changer. Look for them to add some bullpen help over the next few days.
Twins grade: C
Though this mostly seems like the Twins dumping a couple of million in salary between Paddack and Dobnak — don’t ever change, Twins — Jimenez is at least a real prospect, a 19-year-old catcher hitting .250/.339/.440 in the Florida Complex League. He was Detroit’s top international signing in 2023, out of Venezuela, and was ranked No. 14 on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Tigers and No. 17 on Baseball America’s. Jimenez is a switch-hitter, which is always fun to see from a catcher, but it’s also his second year in the FCL and his numbers have shown just minor improvement from 2024. Check back in three years. — Schoenfield
Yankees get:
3B Ryan McMahon
Rockies get:
LHP Griffin Herring
RHP Josh Grosz
Yankees grade: B
For Yankees fans who wanted Eugenio Suarez to fill the hole at third base, this looks like a big letdown considering McMahon is hitting .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs — compared to Suarez’s 36 — and ranking second in the majors in strikeouts while playing half of his games at Coors Field. Away from Colorado, he has hit just .189 with five home runs. Consider the positives, however:
-
He has signed through 2027, so he is a solution at third base for the next two years as well (he’ll make $16 million each of the next two seasons).
-
He is an excellent defender, ranking in the 91st percentile in Statcast’s outs above average.
-
He ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate.
-
He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 87th percentile in hard-hit rate.
-
He might get the “leaving Coors Field” boost, where his road numbers adjust to playing his home games in a more normal environment.
That last one is important. The Yankees have experience with this: DJ LeMahieu hit .327 and .364 in his first two seasons with the Yankees after leaving the Rockies. Yes, the strikeouts are the big concern here with McMahon, and while he is not having his best season, at the minimum, he upgrades the defense and gives the Yankees a little more power. I suspect McMahon won’t hit .189 with the Yankees and could prove to be a sneaky good addition.
Rockies grade: C
While McMahon’s name had been on the rumor mill, it’s still a mild surprise the Rockies actually traded him. First, they rarely make trades of any sort, especially significant ones, and they especially rarely trade their homegrown players such as McMahon. So, at least good for them for doing something that probably makes sense.
Did they get much in return? Herring was a sixth-round pick last year from LSU, where he pitched in relief. The Yankees turned him into a starter, and Herring has mowed through two levels of Single-A with a 1.71 ERA and 10.3 K’s per nine. Primarily a fastball/sweeper guy at LSU, his changeup has proven a big weapon as right-handed batters are hitting just .159 against him.
A college pitcher from a high-profile program such as LSU dominating the low minors usually doesn’t tell us much, except in this case, Herring’s lack of experience and successful transition to a bigger workload is a huge positive. Herring didn’t crack Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Yankees prospects in his July update but did make MLB.com’s list at No. 8.
Grosz has spent the entire 2025 season at high A, posting a 4.14 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 85 innings and holding batters to a .211 average. He has a high-spin fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the secondary stuff needs improvement, and the command is a tick below average (35 walks).
The biggest issue is these are two pitchers who haven’t performed above Single-A and don’t necessarily have elite stuff. The stat lines look good, but the next step to Double-A will be a big test to see how Herring’s fastball plays against better competition and whether Grosz can improve his command. — Schoenfield
Mets get:
LHP Gregory Soto
Orioles get:
RHP Wellington Aracena, RHP Cameron Foster
Mets grade: C+
Through the end of May, the Mets’ bullpen ranked second in the majors with a 2.78 ERA. Since June 1, however, the Mets rank 27th with a 5.02 ERA, so Soto is a logical addition — and probably won’t be the last reliever the Mets acquire. Part of the problem is Mets’ starters haven’t pitched deep into games and manager Carlos Mendoza ran his top relievers except closer Edwin Diaz into the ground.
The Mets have also been without a reliable lefty with offseason signing A.J. Minter out for the year. They did just activate Brooks Raley, but Soto gives them another lefty option, no doubt thinking ahead to potential playoff matchups against the Phillies (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber), Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman) or Cubs (Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong). They’re going to need more than one lefty reliever.
Is Soto a good option though? He still has premium stuff with a 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider, and left-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him in 2025 (although two of the eight hits have been home runs). As always, however, throwing strikes is often an issue (4.5 walks per nine), and he has a large platoon split (right-handed batters have a .371 OBP against him). Soto is a good left-on-left on matchup, but his control means he isn’t always the most trustworthy, and the Orioles weren’t using him in a lot of high-leverage situations of late.
Orioles grade: B-
Let the exodus begin. With as many as 11 more potential free agents, the Orioles are going to be busy over the next week. A lot of those trades will look like this one: a couple of second-tier type prospects. Aracena (No. 19 on MLB.com’s Mets list, No. 28 on Baseball America) is a 6-foot-3, 20-year-old right-hander with a 2.38 ERA in low-A, including 84 strikeouts in 64 innings, featuring a fastball in the upper 90s that has topped out at 101. That’s the good news. The “Why did the Mets trade him?” news is that he has walked 35 batters. He has a cutter and a slider, but the profile here suggests he might end up as a reliever. Still, a decent return for a non-elite reliever such as Soto.
Foster is a 26-year-old reliever who crushed Double-A in repeating the level this season (1.01 ERA), although he struggled in his first two outings after a recent promotion to Triple-A (seven runs in 3.2 innings). Given all the trades the Orioles will make, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pop up in the big league bullpen at some point this season. — Schoenfield
Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor
Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi
Mariners grade: B+
This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.
While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.
Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.
In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.
Diamondbacks grade: B
While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.
Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.
Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.
Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents. — Schoenfield
You may like
Sports
Stanford hires former Nike CEO Donahoe as AD
Published
17 hours agoon
August 2, 2025By
admin
-
Seth Wickersham
CloseSeth Wickersham
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior Writer for ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine
- Joined ESPN The Magazine after graduating from the University of Missouri.
- Although he primarily covers the NFL, his assignments also have taken him to the Athens Olympics, the World Series, the NCAA tournament and the NHL and NBA playoffs.
Jul 31, 2025, 11:10 PM ET
Stanford has hired former Nike CEO John Donahoe as the school’s new athletic director, the university announced Thursday.
Donahoe, 65, will arrive in the collegiate athletic director space with a vast swath of business experience, as Stanford officials viewed him as a “unicorn candidate” because of both his business ties and history at the school. Stanford coveted a nontraditional candidate for the role, and Donahoe’s hire delivers a seasoned CEO with stints at Nike, Bain & Company and eBay. He also served as the board chair of PayPal.
He also brings strong Stanford ties as a 1986 MBA graduate. He has had two stints on the Stanford business school’s advisory board, including currently serving in that role.
“My north star for 40 years has been servant leadership, and it is a tremendous honor to be able to come back to serve a university I love and to lead Stanford Athletics through a pivotal and tumultuous time in collegiate sports,” Donahoe said in a statement. “Stanford has enormous strengths and enormous potential in a changing environment, including being the model for achieving both academic and athletic excellence at the highest levels. I can’t wait to work in partnership with the Stanford team to build momentum for Stanford Athletics and ensure the best possible experiences for our student-athletes.”
Donahoe replaces Bernard Muir, who announced in February that he was stepping down after serving in that role since 2012. Alden Mitchell has been the school’s interim athletic director.
The hire is a head-turning one for Stanford, bringing in someone with Donahoe’s high-level business experience. And it comes at a time when the athletic department has struggled in its highest-profile sports, as football is amid four consecutive 3-9 seasons and the men’s basketball team hasn’t reached the NCAA tournament since 2014.
In hiring Donahoe, Stanford is aiming for someone who can find an innovative way to support general manager Andrew Luck and the football program while also figuring out a sustainable model for the future of Stanford’s Olympic sports.
“Stanford occupies a unique place in the national athletics landscape,” university president Jonathan Levin said in a statement. “We needed a distinctive leader — someone with the vision, judgment, and strategic acumen for a new era of college athletics, and with a deep appreciation for Stanford’s model of scholar-athlete excellence. John embodies these characteristics. We’re grateful he has agreed to lead Stanford Athletics through this critical period in college sports.”
Stanford’s Olympic sports remain the best in the country, as Stanford athletes or former athletes accounted for 39 medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics. If Stanford were a country, it would have tied with Canada for the 11th-most medals. Stanford has also won 26 of the possible 31 director’s cups for overall athletic success in college, including a 25-year streak from 1995 to 2019.
School officials approached Donahoe in recent weeks about the position, with both Levin and former women’s basketball coach Tara VanDerveer among the chief recruiters. Donahoe has a long-standing relationship with both, as he maintained strong ties to the school throughout his career.
Sources said Luck will report to Donahoe. Luck spent time with him in the interview process and is excited to work with him, sources said. It’s also a change from the prior structure, as upon Luck’s hiring he had been slated to report to Levin.
“I am absolutely thrilled John Donahoe is joining as our next athletic director,” Luck said in a statement. “He brings unparalleled experience and elite leadership to our athletic department in a time of opportunity and change. I could not be more excited to partner with and learn from him.”
Stanford is set to begin a football season in which it is picked to finish last in the 17-team ACC. Former NFL coach Frank Reich is the interim coach, and both sides have made clear this is a definitive interim situation and that he won’t return after the 2025 season.
Sports
Iowa State extends Campbell, bumps pay to $5M
Published
17 hours agoon
August 2, 2025By
admin
-
Max OlsonAug 1, 2025, 04:59 PM ET
Close- Covers the Big 12
- Joined ESPN in 2012
- Graduate of the University of Nebraska
Iowa State and coach Matt Campbell have finalized a contract extension through 2032 after the winningest coach in program history led the Cyclones to their first-ever 11-win season in 2024.
Campbell will earn $5 million per year in total compensation, according to a copy of the contract obtained by ESPN on Friday. The three-time Big 12 Coach of the Year honoree took a discount on the deal, sources told ESPN, to ensure that his staff salary pool increased and to allow Iowa State to allocate an additional $1 million to revenue-sharing funds for its football roster.
Campbell earned $4 million in 2024 while leading the Cyclones to a Big 12 championship game appearance, an 11-3 record and a No. 15 finish in the AP poll. He’s entering his 10th season in Ames and has won a school record of 64 games during his tenure.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders will be the Big 12’s highest-paid head coach this year at $10 million after landing a five-year, $54 million contract extension in March. Campbell’s new salary will not rank among the top five in the conference, but he prioritized maximizing Iowa State’s ability to invest in its football roster following a historic season.
Campbell, 45, told ESPN in July at Big 12 media days that “probably our top 20 guys took a pay cut to come back to Iowa State” for 2025, relative to what they could’ve earned in NIL compensation by entering the transfer portal.
The head coach’s deal includes performance incentives based on the Cyclones’ regular-season record, starting at $250,000 for seven wins and climbing to $1.5 million for a 12-0 season. He’ll earn at least $100,000 for a Big 12 title game appearance and up to $500,000 for a Big 12 championship. The deal also permits him to distribute up to $100,000 of his performance incentive earnings each year to his football staff.
If Campbell accepts another Power 4 head coaching job before the end of his contract, his buyout would be $2 million. He would not owe liquidated damages if he departs for an NFL coaching opportunity. Campbell interviewed with the Chicago Bears in January during the organization’s head coaching search.
Campbell surpassed Dan McCarney as the program’s winningest head coach last season and has led the Cyclones to bowl games in seven of the past eight seasons, including a Fiesta Bowl victory and a top-10 finish in 2020.
Sports
What you missed from college football recruiting this summer
Published
17 hours agoon
August 2, 2025By
admin
-
Eli LedermanAug 2, 2025, 07:33 AM ET
Close- Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
The busiest 60 days of the annual recruiting calendar are officially behind us. And while another four months still remain before the December early signing period, college football’s top programs have already wrapped up the majority of their business in the 2026 cycle.
Per ESPN Research, a total of 155 prospects in the 2026 ESPN 300 made commitments in an avalanche of summer recruiting business from June 1 to July 31. In the wake of that, only 16 uncommitteds remain in the ESPN 300 as of Saturday morning. Within that group are just nine top-100 recruits, with five-star defensive end Jake Kreul, No. 2 running back Savion Hiter and No. 2 defensive tackle Deuce Geralds among those expected to come off the board in August.
More settled by this point of the cycle than any other in recent memory, college football’s 2026 class is unfolding against the backdrop of yet another moment of change in the sport. The House settlement and earliest ebbs of college athletics’ revenue sharing era have already shaped the 2026 cycle, and their effects will continue to ripple across the class until February’s national signing day.
As the recruiting trail prepares to take a (relative) back seat to fall camp practices, here’s a look at how the cycle played out this summer and what could come next for the class of 2026:
Revenue sharing and a new era in recruiting
The House settlement, which now permits schools to pay their athletes directly, among other sweeping changes, officially took effect July 1.
But according to personnel staffers, agents, recruits and parents surveyed by ESPN this month on the condition of anonymity, byproducts of college football’s new reality and the initial revenue sharing cap of $20.5 million across all sports have been steering the 2026 cycle for months. “In the past, collectives would always say we’re only going to offer what we know we can pay you,” a player agent told ESPN. “Now programs know what the budget will be, and harder numbers were discussed earlier than usual. The ability for programs to get those numbers out there early was huge.” As schools prepared roster budgets and braced for post-settlement oversight this spring, a number of Power 4 programs began front-loading their 2025 rosters in the lead-up to July 1.
In some cases, that meant negotiating updated, pre-settlement contracts with transfers and current players, deals that will not count against the post-July 1 revenue share cap. In others, sources told ESPN that programs and collectives found workarounds on the recruiting trail, doling out upfront payments as high as $25,000 per month to committed recruits in the 2026 class, primarily through advantageous high school NIL laws that exist in states such as California, Oregon and Washington.
Those front-loading efforts helped several programs jump out to fast starts in the 2026 cycle. Per sources, the impending arrival of revenue sharing also played a significant role in speeding up the 2026 class this spring. With programs in position to present firmer financial figures, a flurry of elite prospects committed to schools on verbal agreements before July 1.
“People rushed to get deals done pre-House,” a Power 4 personnel staffer told ESPN. “You know there’s only so much money available, and schools let kids know that. The first one to say yes gets it.”
Friday loomed especially large in the short-lived history of the House settlement.
Per the settlement, Aug. 1 was the first official date rising seniors could formally receive written revenue share contracts from programs and NIL collectives, the latter of which will now operate under looser regulation from the newly founded College Sports Commission, per a memo sent to athletic directors on Thursday. Put another way, Aug. 1 was the first day committed prospects and their families could officially learn whether terms they had agreed to earlier this year were legit.
“We’re going to see how serious these schools are,” said the parent of an ESPN 300 quarterback. “I think we might see some kids decommit and find new schools this fall.”
Across the industry, sources believe programs will, for the most part, deliver on the verbal agreements. Multiple agents and personnel staffers told ESPN that a number of programs have also generally ignored the Aug. 1 stipulation across the spring and summer, presenting frameworks of agreements to prospective recruits or flouting the rule entirely. Another question hovering over the months ahead: How much will these agreements do to contain the annual shuffle of flips, decommitments and late-cycle drama in the 2026 class?
“These deals should keep things more in check,” another Power 4 personnel staffer said. “But I’m not naive to think some won’t flip. There’s some snakes out there.”
0:46
No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown commits to LSU
No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown stays home and commits to play for the LSU Tigers.
Where do things stand with the 2026 five-star class?
Oregon offensive tackle commit Immanuel Iheanacho, No. 13 in the 2026 ESPN 300, initially planned to announce his commitment Aug. 5. But, like many of the 2026 five-stars who entered late spring still uncommitted, Iheanacho felt the heat of an accelerated market in June.
“There were a couple of schools I was looking at that asked me to commit early, really wanting to get me in their class,” Iheanacho told ESPN. “Oregon didn’t rush me at all.”
Even so, Iheanacho eventually shifted his commitment timeline forward more than a month. ESPN’s second-ranked offensive line prospect picked the Ducks over Auburn, LSU and Penn State on July 3, landing as one of 11 five-star recruits to commit between June 14 and July 20.
-
DT Lamar Brown, LSU, No. 1 overall
-
RB Derrek Cooper, Texas, No. 7 overall
-
DE JaReylan McCoy, Florida, No. 9 overall
-
DE Richard Wesley, Texas, No. 11 overall
-
OT Immanuel Iheanacho, Oregon, No. 13 overall
-
OLB Tyler Atkinson, Texas, No. 14 overall
-
ATH Brandon Arrington, Texas A&M, No. 15 overall
-
TE Kaiden Prothro, Georgia, No. 19 overall
-
OT Felix Ojo, Texas Tech, No. 20 overall
-
S Jett Washington, Oregon, No. 21 overall
-
S Jireh Edwards, Alabama, No. 23 overall
As of Saturday morning, only one of the record 23 five-star prospects in ESPN’s class rankings for 2026 remains uncommitted. LSU secured a class cornerstone and the highest-ranked pledge of the Brian Kelly era in No. 1 overall recruit Lamar Brown on July 10. Meanwhile, Florida (McCoy) and Texas A&M (Arrington) each landed a top-15 defender, Ojo landed a historic deal with Texas Tech, and Texas closed July with the most five-star pledges — four — in the country.
With Kreul, the skilled pass rusher from Florida’s IMG Academy nearing a decision from among Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Texas, ESPN’s 2026 five-star class could be closed out before Week 0.
No matter how it plays out from here, the cycle’s five-stars are already historically settled. As of Saturday morning, 95.6% of the five-star class is committed among 14 schools across the Power 4 conferences. Per ESPN Research, it’s by far the highest Aug. 1 five-star pledge rate in any cycle since at least 2020. Just over a decade ago, only six of the 20 five-stars (30%) in the 2015 cycle were committed on Aug. 1, 2014; nearly half the class committed after New Year’s Day.
Highest rate of five-star pledges by Aug. 1 since the start of the 2020 cycle
-
2026: 95.6%
-
2024: 76.1%
-
2025: 72.7%
-
2021: 66.6%
-
2020: 58.8%
A number of factors — the early signing period, NIL, transfer portal, new rules around recruiting windows and on-campus visits — explain why elite recruiting continues to inch further and further from the traditional February signing day. Amid the fallout of the House settlement, the latest five-star class seemingly received another nudge this summer.
What’s left for the 2026 QB market after summer moves?
The last major quarterback domino in the 2026 class fell July 18 when four-star Landon Duckworth (No. 178 overall) committed to South Carolina. More than four months from the early signing period, the quarterback market in 2026 is effectively closed.
After Ryder Lyons (BYU), Bowe Bentley (Oklahoma) and Jaden O’Neal (Florida State) found homes in June, Duckworth was the last uncommitted ESPN 300 quarterback. Further down the class, several major programs across the Big Ten and SEC dipped into the flip market or outside the top 300 to secure their 2026 quarterback pledge(s) this summer.
Notable quarterback moves since June 1:
-
Ryder Lyons, BYU, No. 49 overall
-
Jaden O’Neal, Florida State, No. 166 overall
-
Bowe Bentley, Oklahoma, No. 168 overall
-
Peyton Falzone, Auburn, No. 208 overall
-
Jett Thomalla, Alabama, No. 14 pocket passer
-
Bryson Beaver, Oregon, No. 15 pocket passer
-
Matt Ponatoski, Kentucky, No. 16 pocket passer
-
Tayden-Evan Kaawa, No. 24 pocket passer
-
Luke Fahey, Ohio State, No. 28 pocket passer
Oregon ended its monthslong chase for a quarterback pledge June 25 with former Boise State commit Beaver. One of the cycle’s top summer risers after a standout Elite 11 finals showing, Beaver landed with Ducks coach Dan Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein over interest Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss in whirlwind, 13-day rerecruitment.
Alabama has five-star freshman Keelon Russell. But still repairing the program’s quarterback pipeline under coach Kalen DeBoer, the Crimson Tide added two pledges this summer between Thomalla — an Iowa State flip — and Kaawa. Across the state, Auburn and coach Hugh Freeze made their move June 26 flipping Falzone from Penn State before Ohio State (Fahey) and Kentucky (Ponatoski), another pair of quarterback-needy programs, landed pledges in July.
For now, the quarterback class is settled and only so many major programs are still searching in 2026.
Among the 68 Power 4 programs and Notre Dame, only 10 reached August without at least one pledge among the 106 quarterback prospects rated by ESPN: Colorado, Georgia Tech, LSU, Iowa, Iowa State, Maryland, Stanford, UCLA, Virginia Tech and West Virginia.
Who might still be looking within that group?
Colorado (Julian Lewis), Maryland (Malik Washington) and UCLA (Madden Iamaleava) each signed a top-300 quarterback in the 2025 class. With all three programs in the midst of roster rebuilds, none is likely to make a serious push at the position this fall.
With Garrett Nussmeier out of eligibility in 2025, and after the LSU lost No. 1 overall recruit Bryce Underwood to Michigan last fall, the Tigers remain a program to watch in the coming months.
What did ESPN’s top five classes do this summer?
The Trojans got the bulk of their work done on the trail this spring and began June with the most ESPN 300 pledges of any program nationally. That remains the case as USC has bolstered its top-ranked incoming class with five more ESPN 300 pledges over the past eight weeks, adding defenders Talanoa Ili (No. 54 overall), Luke Wafle (No. 104) and Peyton Dyer (No. 269), a July 4 pledge from No. 3 wide receiver Ethan “Boobie” Feaster (No. 25) and the commitment of highly regarded four-star offensive guard Breck Kolojay (No. 198) on Friday.
Can USC hold on to secure its first No. 1 class since 2013? Time will tell. Sources told ESPN that the Trojans’ biggest moves in the cycle are likely finished while the program continues to target the tight end and safety positions, but there’s still time for plenty more to unfold this fall.
The Bulldogs went for volume and quality this summer, collecting 19 commitments including 12 from inside the ESPN 300. Georgia continued to build around five-star quarterback Jared Curtis with five-star tight end Kaiden Prothro, top-50 offensive tackle Ekene Ogboko, running back Jae Lamar and pass catchers Brayden Fogle and Craig Dandridge. On the other side of the ball, defensive backs Justice Fitzpatrick, Chase Calicut and Caden Harris, and defensive tackle Pierre Dean Jr. rank among the newest arrivals in an increasingly deep Bulldogs defensive class.
Georgia’s summer wasn’t without a few major misses. Losing out to Texas on No. 1 outside linebacker Tyler Atkinson — a priority in-state target — stung. Top running back Derrek Cooper’s subsequent pledge to the Longhorns marked another blow, as did wide receiver Vance Spafford‘s decision to flip to Miami in late June. But the Bulldogs are loaded up once again on top during this cycle and will hit the fall in line to secure the program’s 10th straight top-three signing class for 2026.
The Aggies landed a key local recruiting win over Texas on June 17 with a commitment from No. 5 running back K.J. Edwards, the state’s No. 6 prospect in 2026. But Texas A&M’s summer of recruiting was defined on defense, where coach Mike Elko is building another monster class.
Five-star athlete Brandon Arrington, who will play defensive back in college, became the program’s top-ranked 2026 pledge on June 19. Behind him, the Aggies have added top-150 defenders Bryce Perry-Wright, Camren Hamiel and Tristian Givens, and top 300 linebacker Daquives Beck since June 1 to a defensive class that features nine ESPN 300 pledges.
Even after narrowly missing on top defenders Lamar Brown (LSU) and Anthony Jones (Oregon) in July, Texas A&M holds one of the nation’s deepest classes and appears poised to contend later this year for its first top-five class since the Aggies went No. 1 in 2022.
It was a five-star bonanza for coach Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns this summer.
It began with a late-June pledge from Oregon decommit Richard Wesley, ESPN’s No. 3 defensive end. From there, Texas went on to secure its latest pair of recruiting wins over Georgia last month, swooping in to land Atkinson on July 15 before earning Derrek Cooper’s commitment five days later. With No. 1 quarterback Dia Bell already in the fold, the Longhorns have as many five-star pledges in 2026 as the program signed across 11 classes from 2011 to 2021.
Top-50 offensive lineman John Turntine III marked a key addition July 4, and the Longhorns got deeper on defense with commitments from cornerback Samari Matthews and former Georgia defensive tackle pledge James Johnson. But the five-star moves have been the story for Texas this summer, and Sarkisian & Co. might not be done yet with the Longhorns heavily in the mix for Jake Kreul, the last remaining five-star in the 2026 class.
After a productive spring, the Irish landed five ESPN 300 pledges after June 1, plugging the few remaining holes in the program’s 2026 class with a series of elite high school prospects.
Notre Dame landed its top two defensive back commitments within hours of each other on June 20 with pledges from cornerback Khary Adams and Joey O’Brien. On June 26, the Irish secured their highest-ranked tight end commit since the 2021 class in four-star Ian Premer. And in early July, Notre Dame bolstered its wide receiver class with an infusion of talent and NFL pedigree, adding Kaydon Finley (son of Jermichael Finley), Brayden Robinson and Devin Fitzgerald (son of Larry Fitzgerald).
Notre Dame’s trip to last season’s national title game arrived amid the program’s steady rise on the recruiting trail under coach Marcus Freeman. That has continued in 2026, where the Irish are poised to sign more ESPN 300 pledges — 17 — than in any cycle since at least 2006.
Five programs poised to push for a top-five finish this fall
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 6
Only one program can match USC’s count of nine top-100 pledges in 2026: Alabama.
The Crimson Tide’s second class under coach Kalen DeBoer boomed in June and July as the Crimson Tide secured a slew of commitments on defense with five-star safety Jireh Edwards (No. 23 overall), No. 3 outside linebacker Xavier Griffin (No. 30) and defensive ends Nolan Wilson (No. 53) and Jamarion Matthews (No. 92). Priority in-state offensive targets Ezavier Crowell (No. 31) and Cederian Morgan (No. 47) marked two more key additions this summer.
Alabama whiffed on another major in-state recruit Thursday when four-star outside linebacker Anthony Jones, the state’s No. 1 prospect in 2026, committed to Oregon. Jones represented one of the last elite targets on the Crimson Tide’s board. But Alabama has already flipped four Power 4 commits this summer and could continue to climb this fall as long as DeBoer and his staff remain active within the class from now to the early signing period.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 11
LSU enters the month with ESPN’s No. 1 overall recruit, a five-star wide receiver in Tristen Keys (No. 10 overall) and 10 total ESPN 300 commits in the program’s incoming recruiting class.
How can the Tigers climb into the upper reaches of the 2026 cycle this fall? First and foremost, they have to hang onto Keys, ESPN’s No. 3 wide receiver. He has been committed to LSU since March 19, but that didn’t keep him from taking multiple official visits in the spring or shield him from serious flips efforts from Miami, Tennessee and Texas A&M this summer.
The Tigers’ battle to keep Keys could stretch all the way to the early signing period.
Sources expect LSU to ramp up its own flip efforts with in-state safety and Ohio State pledge Blaine Bradford (No. 34 overall) in the coming months. The Tigers are also finalists for Deuce Geralds and remain top contenders in the recruitments of offensive linemen Darius Gray (No. 73) and wide receiver Jase Mathews, both of whom are set to commit in August. LSU can’t be counted out from renewing its work in the 2026 quarterback this fall, either.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 7
The defending national champs had a relatively quiet summer atop the 2026 cycle, adding only four ESPN 300 pledges highlighted by the in-state pledges of outside linebacker Cincere Johnson (No. 82 overall) and running back Favour Akih (No. 160). Fahey, ESPN’s No. 28 pocket passer, will pad Ohio State’s future quarterback depth after Air Noland‘s offseason transfer, too.
One priority target who could help push the Buckeyes over the edge is four-star prospect Bralan Womack (No. 32). Ohio State has been consistent a leader in the recruitment of ESPN’s No. 3 safety through the spring and summer, and coach Ryan Day & Co. will have to hold off late pushes from fellow finalists Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M from now until Womack’s Aug. 22 commitment date. The Buckeyes also remain involved in the recruitments of No. 2 running back Savion Hiter and Darius Gray, the nation’s 10th-ranked offensive lineman.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 8
Wolverines coach Sherrone Moore has filled out his class with nine ESPN 300 pledges since June 1, headlined by top-100 defender Carter Meadows (No. 88 overall), who trails only quarterback Brady Smigiel (No. 44) among the top prospects pledged to Michigan in 2026.
Who could be next for the Wolverines? Michigan are finalists for ESPN 300 defenders Davon Benjamin (No. 63) and Anthony Davis Jr. (No. 299) with each set for a decision Saturday. More prominently, the Wolverines remain focused on Hiter (No. 24 overall), a top priority for the Michigan staff this summer whose commitment date is set for Aug. 19. The Wolverines also continue to be linked with Syracuse wide receiver pledge Calvin Russell (No. 28). ESPN’s No. 4 wide receiver closed a narrowing process with a commitment to the Orange on July 5, but sources expect Michigan and Miami to remain involved with Russell this fall.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 10
No. 2 outside linebacker Anthony Jones committed to the Ducks on Thursday, joining five-stars Immanuel Iheanacho and Jett Washington in a string of high-profile pledges for Oregon this summer.
Insiders believe the Ducks have backed off at the very top of the 2026 class after spending in the 2025 cycle, but Jones’ pledge could be the first move in a late-summer surge for coach Dan Lanning. Oregon is viewed as the front-runner for both Deuce Geralds and Davon Benjamin as the pair of top-65 prospects prepare to announce their commitments Saturday afternoon. If the Ducks land both, Lanning & Co. could be in position to sign another top-five class by December.
Trending
-
Sports3 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years ago
Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years ago
Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike