US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays

Published

2 months ago

August 1, 2025

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Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs.

The big risk ahead?

It’s a self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

US

Charlie Kirk ally claims ‘miracle’ stopped bullet killing anyone else

Published

16 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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Charlie Kirk ally claims 'miracle' stopped bullet killing anyone else

The producer of Charlie Kirk’s podcast has claimed that a “miracle” stopped more people being killed by the bullet that hit the right-wing influencer.

Andrew Kolvet claimed to have spoken to a surgeon that tried to save Mr Kirk’s life, and posted on social media to discuss the apparent lack of an exit wound.

A prominent right-wing figure in the US, Mr Kirk was a staunch ally of President Donald Trump and was known for his conservative viewpoints on abortion, religion and LGBT issues.

The 31-year-old was shot dead while speaking at a university event in Utah last week.

Mr Trump and other public figures are expected to be in Arizona on Sunday for a memorial service for Mr Kirk which is expected to draw 100,000 people.

Mr Kolvet, executive producer of the Charlie Kirk Show, apologised for the “somewhat graphic” nature of his post on X.

In it, he discussed what he said was a lack of an exit wound from the bullet, despite it being “a high powered, high velocity round”.

Mr Kolvet included what he said were quotes from a surgeon who operated on Mr Kirk.

“It was an absolute miracle that someone else didn’t get killed,” Mr Kolvet quoted the surgeon as saying.

“His bone was so healthy and the density was so so impressive that he’s like the man of steel. It should have just gone through and through. It likely would have killed those standing behind him too.”

Mr Kolvet said what happened was “remarkable” and “miraculous”.

Memorial to draw 100,000 people

President Trump and JD Vance are expected to be among the prominent MAGA members who will pay tribute to Mr Kirk at the memorial event.

It will take place at State Farm Stadium, the home of the Arizona Cardinals NFL team, amid a heavy law enforcement presence.

President Trump has blamed the “radical left” for the death of Mr Kirk, whom he credited for helping him win the 2024 presidential election.

It comes as the death of Mr Kirk has turned into a debate over the First Amendment.

While they have repeatedly criticised what they claim are assaults on free speech, members of the MAGA movement appear to be taking a different stance when the subject is one of their own, launching attacks on people they deem to be making disparaging comments about Mr Kirk.

Dozens of people, from journalists to teachers, have already lost their jobs for allegedly making offensive comments about the podcaster.

Late-night chat show host Jimmy Kimmel was pulled from the air indefinitely by ABC following a backlash from the Trump-appointed head of the Federal Communications Commission over the comedian’s remarks about Mr Kirk.

The State Department also has warned it would revoke the visas of any foreigners who celebrated his assassination.

US

Luigi Mangione’s lawyers call on judge to block the death penalty

Published

19 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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Luigi Mangione's lawyers call on judge to block the death penalty

Lawyers for Luigi Mangione have called on a judge to block federal prosecutors from seeking the death penalty against him.

Mangione’s legal team says the 27-year-old’s case has been turned into a “Marvel movie” after a failed bid by the US Justice Department to indict him on terrorism charges over the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare chief executive Brian Thompson in New York on 4 December.

New York state judge Gregory Carro said there was no evidence that the killing, which took place as Mr Thompson walked into an investor conference at the New York Hilton Midtown hotel, amounted to a terrorist act.

But Judge Carro upheld second-degree murder charges, which suggest there was malicious intent – but not that it was premeditated.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi has called for Mangione to face capital punishment, describing the charges against him as a “premeditated cold-blooded assassination that shocked America”.

But in the new court filing, Mangione’s legal team argues federal prosecutors have “violated Mr Mangione’s constitutional and statutory rights” by “staging a dehumanizing, unconstitutional ‘perp walk’ where he was televised, videotaped, and photographed clambering out of a helicopter in shackles” on the way to his first court appearance.

The legal team, led by former Manhattan prosecutor Karen Friedman Agnifilo, also claims the death penalty case has been “fatally prejudiced” after President Donald Trump commented on it on Fox News.

Despite laws that prohibit any pre-trial commentary that could prejudice the defendant’s right to a free trial, he told the network on Thursday: “Think about Mangione. He shot someone in the back, as clear as you’re looking at me or I’m looking at you.”

The defence team’s 114-page court filing reads: “There is a high bar to dismissing an indictment due to pretrial publicity.

“However, there has never been a situation remotely like this one where prejudice has been so great against a death-eligible defendant.”

Federal prosecutors have until 31 October to respond to the documents.

Mangione has pleaded not guilty to all the state charges against him, which cannot result in the death penalty and only life imprisonment, unlike federal ones. He has also pleaded not guilty to the federal charges.

He is due back in court for a pre-trial hearing in the state case on 1 December and the federal case on 5 December.

The 27-year-old was arrested five days after Mr Thompson was killed – when he was spotted at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, around 230 miles west of New York City.

US

Pentagon orders journalists to agree to new reporting rules – or be barred

Published

21 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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Pentagon orders journalists to agree to new reporting rules - or be barred

Journalists at the Pentagon have been told they could be barred if they gather or report information that officials haven’t approved first.

Reporters’ access to the iconic building, the headquarters of the US defence department, is also being curtailed.

Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, posted on X: “The ‘press’ does not run the Pentagon – the people do.

“The press is no longer allowed to roam the halls of a secure facility. Wear a badge and follow the rules – or go home.”

A memo announcing the changes was sent to reporters on Friday, informing them “information must be approved for public release by an appropriate authorizing official before it is released, even if it is unclassified”.

They must sign an agreement agreeing to the new rules or face having their press pass revoked.

Journalists’ groups said it was a dangerous move that would seriously restrict their ability to hold defence officials to account.

The National Press Club called it “a direct assault on independent journalism at the very place where independent scrutiny matters most: the US military”.

The Society of Professional Journalists said it “would deny the American people the transparency and accountability they deserve”.

“This policy reeks of prior restraint – the most egregious violation of press freedom under the First Amendment – and is a dangerous step toward government censorship,” it said.

“Attempts to silence the press under the guise of ‘security’ are part of a disturbing pattern of growing government hostility toward transparency and democratic norms.”

The defence department – which recently rebranded itself as the Department of War – said it “remains committed to transparency to promote accountability and public trust”.

However, it stated that disclosing information – even if unclassified – without consent was a potential national security risk.

The first year of US President Donald Trump’s second term has seen several embarrassing episodes for the Pentagon.

A journalist revealed in March that he had accidentally been included on a group chat, which included the defence secretary and vice president, discussing plans to attack Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The Pentagon said no classified information had been shared but opponents said it showed a worryingly lax approach that could endanger US troops.

Doubts were also raised about America’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites earlier this year after a leaked intelligence report suggested the attack had only set the regime back “by months”.

President Trump and the CIA both hit back hard against the report, with the president insisting the underground facilities had been “blown to kingdom come”.