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Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?

Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs.

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The big risk ahead?

It’s a self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

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New Look owners pick bankers to fashion sale process

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New Look owners pick bankers to fashion sale process

The owners of New Look, the high street fashion retailer, have picked bankers to oversee a strategic review which is expected to see the company change hands next year.

Sky News has learnt that Rothschild has been appointed in recent days to advise New Look and its shareholders on a potential exit.

The investment bank’s appointment follows a number of unsolicited approaches for the business from unidentified suitors.

New Look, which trades from almost 340 stores and employs about 10,000 people across the UK, is the country’s second-largest womenswear retailer in the 18-to-44 year-old age group.

It has been owned by its current shareholders – Alcentra and Brait – since October 2020.

In April, Sky News reported that the investors were injecting £30m of fresh equity into the business to aid its digital transformation.

Last year, the chain reported sales of £769m, with an improvement in gross margins and a statutory loss before tax of £21.7m – down from £88m the previous year.

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Like most high street retailers, it endured a torrid Covid-19 and engaged in a formal financial restructuring through a company voluntary arrangement.

In the autumn of 2023, it completed a £100m refinancing deal with Blazehill Capital and Wells Fargo.

A spokesperson for New Look declined to comment specifically on the appointment of Rothschild, but said: “Management are focused on running the business and executing the strategy for long-term growth.

“The company is performing well, with strong momentum driven by a successful summer trading period and notable online market share gains.”

Roughly 40% of New Look’s sales are now generated through digital channels, while recent data from the market intelligence firm Kantar showed it had moved into second place in the online 18-44 category, overtaking Shein and ASOS.

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Coca-Cola brews up sale of high street coffee giant Costa

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Coca-Cola brews up sale of high street coffee giant Costa

The Coca-Cola Company is brewing up a sale of Costa, Britain’s biggest high street coffee chain, more than six years after acquiring the business in a move aimed at helping it reduce its reliance on sugary soft drinks.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Coca-Cola is working with bankers to hold exploratory talks about a sale of Costa.

Initial talks have already been held with a small number of potential bidders, including private equity firms, City sources said on Saturday.

Lazard, the investment bank, is understood to have been engaged by Coca-Cola to review options for the business and gauge interest from prospective buyers.

Indicative offers are said to be due in the early part of the autumn, although one source cautioned that Coca-Cola could yet decide not to proceed with a sale.

Costa trades from more than 2,000 stores in the UK, and well over 3,000 globally, according to the latest available figures.

It has been reported to have a global workforce numbering 35,000, although Coca-Cola did not respond to several attempts to establish the precise number of outlets currently in operation, or its employee numbers.

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This weekend, analysts said that a sale could crystallise a multibillion pound loss on the £3.9bn sum Coca-Cola agreed to pay to buy Costa from Whitbread, the London-listed owner of the Premier Inn hotel chain, in 2018.

One suggested that Costa might now command a price tag of just £2bn in a sale process.

The disposal proceeds would, in any case, not be material to the Atlanta-based company, which had a market capitalisation at Friday’s closing share price of $304.2bn (£224.9bn).

At the time of the acquisition, Coca-Cola’s chief executive, James Quincey, said: “Costa gives Coca-Cola new capabilities and expertise in coffee, and our system can create opportunities to grow the Costa brand worldwide.

“Hot beverages is one of the few segments of the total beverage landscape where Coca-Cola does not have a global brand.

“Costa gives us access to this market with a strong coffee platform.”

However, accounts filed at Companies House for Costa show that in 2023 – the last year for which standalone results are available – the coffee chain recorded revenues of £1.22bn.

While this represented a 9% increase on the previous year, it was below the £1.3bn recorded in 2018, the final year before Coca-Cola took control of the business.

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Coca-Cola has been grappling with the weak performance of Costa for some time, with Mr Quincey saying on an earnings call last month: “We’re in the mode of reflecting on what we’ve learned, thinking about how we might want to find new avenues to grow in the coffee category while continuing to run the Costa business successfully.”

“It’s still a lot of money we put down, and we wanted that money to work as hard as possible.”

Costa’s 2022 accounts referred to the financial pressures it faced from “the economic environment and inflationary pressures”, resulting in it launching “a restructuring programme to address the scale of overheads and invest for growth”.

Filings show that despite its lacklustre performance, Costa has paid more than £250m in dividends to its owner since the acquisition.

The deal was intended to provide Coca-Cola with a global platform in a growing area of the beverages market.

Costa trades in dozens of countries, including India, Japan, Mexico and Poland, and operates a network of thousands of coffee vending machines internationally under the Costa Express brand.

The chain was founded in 1971 by Italian brothers Sergio and Bruno Costa.

It was sold to Whitbread for £19m in 1995, when it traded from fewer than 40 stores.

The business is now one of Britain’s biggest private sector employers, and has become a ubiquitous presence on high streets across the country.

Its main rivals include Starbucks, Caffe Nero and Pret a Manger – the last of which is being prepared for a stake sale and possible public market flotation.

It has also faced growing competition from more upmarket chains such as Gail’s, the bakeries group, which has also been exploring a sale.

Coca-Cola communications executives in the US and UK did not respond to a series of emails and calls from Sky News seeking comment on its plans for Costa.

A Lazard spokesperson declined to comment.

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TikTok puts hundreds of UK jobs at risk

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TikTok puts hundreds of UK jobs at risk

TikTok is putting hundreds of jobs at risk in the UK, as it turns to artificial intelligence to assess problematic content.

The video-sharing app said a global restructuring is taking place that means it is “concentrating operations in fewer locations”.

Layoffs are set to affect those working in its trust and safety departments, who focus on content moderation.

Unions have reacted angrily to the move – and claim “it will put TikTok’s millions of British users at risk”.

Figures from the tech giant, obtained by Sky News, suggest more than 85% of the videos removed for violating its community guidelines are now flagged by automated tools.

Meanwhile, it is claimed 99% of problematic content is proactively removed before being reported by users.

Executives also argue that AI systems can help reduce the amount of distressing content that moderation teams are exposed to – with the number of graphic videos viewed by staff falling 60% since this technology was implemented.

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It comes weeks after the Online Safety Act came into force, which means social networks can face huge fines if they fail to stop the spread of harmful material.

The Communication Workers Union has claimed the redundancy announcement “looks likely to be a significant reduction of the platform’s vital moderation teams”.

In a statement, it warned: “Alongside concerns ranging from workplace stress to a lack of clarity over questions such as pay scales and office attendance policy, workers have also raised concerns over the quality of AI in content moderation, believing such ‘alternatives’ to human work to be too vulnerable and ineffective to maintain TikTok user safety.”

John Chadfield, the union’s national officer for tech, said many of its members believe the AI alternatives being used are “hastily developed and immature”.

He also alleged that the layoffs come a week before staff were due to vote on union recognition.

“That TikTok management have announced these cuts just as the company’s workers are about to vote on having their union recognised stinks of union-busting and putting corporate greed over the safety of workers and the public,” he added.

Under the proposed plans, affected employees would see their roles reallocated elsewhere in Europe or handled by third-party providers, with a smaller number of trust and safety roles remaining on British soil.

The tech giant currently employs more than 2,500 people in the UK, and is due to open a new office in central London next year

A TikTok spokesperson said: “We are continuing a reorganisation that we started last year to strengthen our global operating model for Trust and Safety, which includes concentrating our operations in fewer locations globally to ensure that we maximize effectiveness and speed as we evolve this critical function for the company with the benefit of technological advancements.”

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