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Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

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Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs but the most recent employment data has signalled a significant slowdown in hiring, with a tick upwards in the jobless rate.

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The big risk ahead?

It’s the prospect of another self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

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‘Nervous’ British tourists in Jamaica tell of Hurricane Melissa ordeal

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'Nervous' British tourists in Jamaica tell of Hurricane Melissa ordeal

Up to 8,000 holidaying British citizens are in Jamaica as it is battered by one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history.

People have been ordered to stay indoors as Hurricane Melissa sweeps over the Caribbean island, which is also home to 50,000 dual nationals.

And tourists are locked down in hotels as Jamaica is hit by 185 mph winds.

Follow latest updates on Hurricane Melissa

Waves splash in Kingston, Jamaica, as Hurricane Melissa hits. Pic: AP
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Waves splash in Kingston, Jamaica, as Hurricane Melissa hits. Pic: AP

Andrew Tracey had been due to fly home to the UK on Monday, but his flight was cancelled.

Mr Tracey told Sky News that food packages were being delivered to guests at his hotel. Deck chairs have been removed from the beach, and the swimming pools have been drained, at the Negril hotel where he is staying.

“The balcony and walls do feel as though they are vibrating just due to the strength of the wind,” said Mr Tracey.

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“I’m very nervous, it’s hard to comprehend what we are likely to expect.”

The US National Hurricane Centre in Miami said that Melissa was “one of the most powerful hurricane landfalls on record in the Atlantic basin” as it hit southwestern Jamaica near New Hope.

People walk along a road during the passing of Hurricane Melissa in Rocky Point, Jamaica, on Tuesday. Pic: AP
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People walk along a road during the passing of Hurricane Melissa in Rocky Point, Jamaica, on Tuesday. Pic: AP

In a social media post, the centre warned that it is an “extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation” – and told those in the area not to leave their shelter as the eye of the storm passes over.

‘It is a bit scary, but we’ve got each other’

A British-Jamaican couple who are sheltering inside as the storm passes over the island spoke to Sky News about their ordeal.

Shantell Nova Rochester and her Jamaican fiance Denva Wray are due to get married on the island next month.

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Floods tear through parts of Jamaica

They spoke of broken windows and water coming in where they are staying, but the couple believe they are “as safe as they can possibly be” in St Elizabeth.

Mr Wray said: “Where we are is quite strong, sturdy, but you can hear a lot of wind. It is a bit scary, but we’ve got each other, so we are strong.”

Asked about the wedding, Ms Rochester said: “We’re just worried about getting through tomorrow, but that’s a worry in the back of our heads.

“Where we’re plan to get married is flooded at this time.”

Government action ‘too late’ – British tourist

One British man who paid £3,500 for last-minute flights so he and his family could return home before the hurricane hit the island said that he felt “completely let down” by the government’s response.

David Rowe and his family, from Hertfordshire, had spent 10 days in Jamaica before deciding to fly back to the UK on Saturday.

Mr Rowe, 47, was critical of the response of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

David Rowe with his wife Abby, daughter Cora, eight, and son Ethan, 12, during their holiday in Jamaica.  Pic: PA/handout
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David Rowe with his wife Abby, daughter Cora, eight, and son Ethan, 12, during their holiday in Jamaica. Pic: PA/handout

Speaking to the PA news agency, IT manager Mr Rowe said: “It’s all too late, their reaction and their response to the storm has been too late – after the fact.

“The advice should have been last week, like on the Saturday – don’t travel – because a lot of the travel companies use the FCDO guidance on travel (for) all their planning and what decisions they make as an organisation.

“There should have been something done much sooner than this. A lot of the UK nationals, and people on holiday there, they are stranded.

“This could have been prevented with with better action from the UK government.”

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‘Storm of century’ makes landfall

Mr Rowe added that he and his wife had felt “very anxious” before they flew home – and “very sad” for those left in the country.

A Foreign Office spokesperson said: “We understand how worrying developments in Jamaica are for British nationals and their families.

“Our travel advice includes information about hurricane season, which runs from June to November. Last Thursday we updated our travel advice for Jamaica to include a warning about Tropical Storm Melissa and that it was expected to intensify over the coming days.

“The safety and security of British nationals is our top priority, and that is why we are urging any British nationals in Jamaica to follow the guidance of the local authorities and register their presence with us to receive updates.”

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Blasts reported after Benjamin Netanyahu orders Israeli military to carry out ‘powerful’ strikes in Gaza

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Blasts reported after Benjamin Netanyahu orders Israeli military to carry out 'powerful' strikes in Gaza

Blasts have been reported in Gaza after Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his military to carry out “powerful” air strikes.

Witnesses said they saw explosions and heard tank fire in Gaza City and Deir al Balah.

An Associated Press reporter in Deir al Balah heard tanks firing from an area controlled by the Israeli army, and, in Gaza City, two health officials reported strikes, including near the Shifa hospital.

At least two people were killed, and four others wounded, by a strike on a neighbourhood south of Gaza City, according to Gaza’s Civil Defence.

The announcement of strikes came shortly after Israel said that Hamas had opened fire on its forces in southern Gaza on Tuesday.

Hamas has denied involvement in the attack in the city of Rafah. The militant Palestinian group also said in a statement that it remained committed to the US-backed ceasefire deal.

Mr Netanyahu had also accused Hamas of violating the three-week-old ceasefire in the territory by handing over remains that were of an Israeli hostage who was already recovered.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his military to carry out air strikes on Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his military to carry out air strikes on Gaza. Pic: Reuters

A statement from the prime minister’s office said: “Following the security consultations, Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed the military echelon to carry out powerful strikes in the Gaza Strip immediately.”

US Vice President JD Vance said the ceasefire, which began on 10 October, was holding, telling reporters: “That doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be little skirmishes here and there.

“We know that Hamas or somebody else within Gaza attacked an (Israeli military) soldier. We expect the Israelis are going to respond, but I think the president’s peace is going to hold despite that.”

Hamas on Tuesday said that it would postpone the planned handover of a body of a hostage it had recovered, claiming violations of the ceasefire by Israel.

In a sign of the fragility of the ceasefire, Israeli troops were shot at in Rafah, and returned fire, according to an Israeli military official.

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Analysis: Two events combine to threaten a fragile ceasefire

An Israeli military official told Sky’s Middle East correspondent Adam Parsons that Hamas have “shown their true face”.

The official told him: “Hamas violated the ceasefire once again, carrying out an attack against IDF forces east to the yellow line, an area under Israeli control.

“This is yet another blatant violation of the ceasefire. This comes after Hamas has also shown their true face and the fact that are pretending to not know where the remaining hostages are.”

Hamas militants carry a white bag believed to contain a body retrieved from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Tuesday. Pic: AP
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Hamas militants carry a white bag believed to contain a body retrieved from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Tuesday. Pic: AP

Hamas said on the Telegram messaging app that any Israeli escalation of attacks in Gaza would hinder search and recovery operations, and delay the return of the bodies of Israeli soldiers.

There are thought to be 13 bodies of hostages still in Gaza.

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Speaking to Sky News, Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said: “The first line of this agreement is that all of our hostages should have been returned on the first day of this agreement.

“They were supposed to give back all of our hostages, and there was supposed to be a ceasefire. There are still 13 of our murdered hostages (in Gaza).

“And secondly, Hamas are firing on our troops. That is not a ceasefire.”

After the ceasefire took effect, all 20 living hostages were freed in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, but the remains of the dead have been slow to be repatriated.

Hamas has said there are problems finding them due to a lack of equipment to sift through the devastation and rubble in Gaza.

The search for hostage bodies had been stepped up over the past few days after the arrival of heavy machinery from Egypt.

Hamas members and Egyptian workers search for the bodies of hostages in the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday. Pic: AP
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Hamas members and Egyptian workers search for the bodies of hostages in the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday. Pic: AP

Bulldozers were working in Khan Younis, and further north in Nuseirat, with Hamas fighters deployed around them.

Some of the bodies are believed to be in Hamas’ network of tunnels below Gaza.

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Eleven people killed after tourist plane crashes in Kenya

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Eleven people killed after tourist plane crashes in Kenya

Eleven people have been killed after a plane carrying tourists to a Kenyan safari reserve crashed.

According to officials, the aircraft burst into flames and was reduced to charred wreckage at the hilly and forested area in which it crashed.

The plane had been travelling from Diani Airport, on the coast, to the Maasai Mara National Reserve.

The dead included eight Hungarian passengers, two Germans and the Kenyan pilot. There were no survivors.

Authorities initially said the crash happened at 5:30am local time. Later, the Kenyan transport minister gave the time of the incident as 8:35am.

Kenyan officials inspect the scene of a plane crash near Diani, Kenya. Pic: AP
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Kenyan officials inspect the scene of a plane crash near Diani, Kenya. Pic: AP

Kenya’s ministry of roads and transport said the aircraft was destroyed by the impact of the crash and an ensuing fire.

Investigators from the country’s aircraft accident investigation department have been deployed to the site to begin an inquiry, they said.

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The department added that the Kenyan government’s “highest priority” remains aviation safety.

In a statement, John Cleave, the chairman of Mombasa Air Safari, said “our hearts and prayers” were with all those affected by the crash.

He wrote that the company had activated its emergency response team and was “fully cooperating” with the relevant authorities, who have already begun investigating.

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“Our primary focus right now is on providing all possible support to the families affected,” Mr Cleave continued, adding that a family assistance team had been established to offer counselling, logistical coordination and any required assistance to the relatives of the victims.

The Maasai Mara National Reserve is a two-hour direct flight from Diani, a popular coastal town known for its sandy beaches.

Kenyan security officials secure the wreckage of an aircraft which crashed with 11 people onboard. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Kenyan security officials secure the wreckage of an aircraft which crashed with 11 people onboard. Pic: Reuters

The reserve attracts a large number of tourists as it features the annual wildebeest migration from the Serengeti in Tanzania.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wrote on social media on Tuesday that his foreign ministry had been in contact with authorities in Kenya concerning the Hungarian victims of the plane crash.

He said: “What a tragedy! Our sincere condolences to families of the Hungarians who died in the plane crash in Kenya.”

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