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Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

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Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs but the most recent employment data has signalled a significant slowdown in hiring, with a tick upwards in the jobless rate.

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The big risk ahead?

It’s the prospect of another self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

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Hong Kong mourns those lost to fire as investigators search for remains

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Hong Kong mourns those lost to fire as investigators search for remains

Grief was not lonely today in Hong Kong. Three days after the worst fire in the history of modern Hong Kong, it feels as though it has barely sunk in.

The weekend at least lent them time to pay tribute, and gave them some space to reflect.

People came in droves to lay flowers, so many a queuing system was needed.

People queue with flowers near the site to mourn the victims of the deadly fire. Pic: AP
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People queue with flowers near the site to mourn the victims of the deadly fire. Pic: AP

Official books of condolences were also set up in multiple parts of the city.

It was the first day large teams of investigators were able to enter the site. Dozens of them in hazmat suits were bused in, their work the grimmest of tasks.

Every so often you could see a flashlight peep through the window of an upper blackened window, a reminder that the fire services are still undertaking dangerous work.

But the reach of the authorities is ramping up here.

Firefighters walk through the burned buildings after the deadly fire. Pic: AP
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Firefighters walk through the burned buildings after the deadly fire. Pic: AP

Yesterday a grass roots aid distribution centre was the vibrant heart of the response.

They received notice at 4am that they needed to pack up and move on. By 10.30am, the mountains of donations were gone, residents watched on, bewildered.

The task apparently will be handed over to professional NGOs.

“I think the government’s biggest concern is due to some past incidents,” one organiser tells us. “They may liken this to previous events. The essence looks similar.”

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

She’s careful with her words, but she’s clearly hinting at major pro-democracy protests that were crushed by authorities in 2019.

Any sort of mass gathering is now seen as a risk, the system is still very nervous.

And they might well be because people here are angry.

What, they ask, did the government know? What did it choose to ignore?

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How Hong Kong’s government failed to act on fire fears

Indeed, Sky News has learnt that residents raised their fears over fire safety connected to extensive renovations on Wang Fuk Court as early as September 2024.

They flagged the suspected flammability of green nets being used to cover the building.

An email response from the Labour Department was sent a few months later to Jason Poon, a civil engineer-turned-activist, who was working with residents. It insists that “the mesh’s flame retardant properties meet safety standards”.

But many clearly didn’t believe it. Posts spanning many months on a residents’ Facebook group continued to voice their fears.

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Hong Kong fire survivors supported by community

When a much smaller fire broke out in the city last month, one resident posted: “All the materials outside are flammable, I feel really worried.”

“I feel that same way” another replied. “The government has no sense of concern.”

For Poon, who dedicates much of his time to fighting lax safety standards in Hong Kong’s construction industry, the whole experience has been devastating.

“They knew all the maintenance was using corner-cutting materials, but they didn’t do anything,” he says.

“This is a man-made disaster.”

We put these allegations to Hong Kong’s Labour Department but they have not yet responded to our request for comment.

Grief may still be the prominent force here, but anger is not that far behind.

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Indonesia: More than 300 people dead and others missing after floods and landslides

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Indonesia: More than 300 people dead and others missing after floods and landslides

More than 300 people have died and dozens are missing following floods and landslides in Indonesia, which has also been hit by an earthquake.

Monsoon rains over the past week caused rivers to burst their banks in North Sumatra province.

The deluge tore through mountainside villages, swept away people and submerged thousands of houses and buildings, the National Disaster Management Agency said.

As rescue workers continued their efforts on Saturday, the head of the country’s disaster mitigation agency said the number of dead had risen to at least 303 people. Authorities fear the figure will increase.

Flooded buildings in Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara
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Flooded buildings in Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara

Other Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have also been affected by torrential rain in the last week, with authorities working to rescue stranded citizens, restore power and communications and coordinate recovery efforts.

On Friday, the Thai government said 145 people had been killed by flooding across eight southern provinces, while two deaths have also been confirmed in Malaysia. Sri Lanka, in South Asia, has also seen 46 deaths following a cyclone, authorities said.

Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara
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Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara

The extreme weather was driven by tropical cyclone Senyar, which formed in the Strait of Malacca, Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency said.

Rescuers in Indonesia have been struggling to reach some areas cut off by damaged roads, and where communications lines have come down.

Relief aircraft have been delivering aid and supplies to the hard-hit district of Central Tapanuli in North Sumatra and other provinces in the region.

Tanah Datar, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Ali Nayaka
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Tanah Datar, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Ali Nayaka

The agency said West Sumatra’s Agam district had also been affected.

Pictures of the rescue efforts show workers trudging through waist-deep mud and areas filled with tree trunks and debris, searching for any victims potentially trapped.

In Aceh province, flooded roads meant authorities struggled to get tractors and other heavy equipment to hilly hamlets which were hit by mud and rocks in the deluge.

Malalak, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Nazar Chaniago
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Malalak, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Nazar Chaniago

Hundreds of police officers, soldiers and residents dug through the debris with their bare hands and spades as heavy rain hindered their efforts.

Meanwhile, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake hit Sumatra island near Aceh province on Thursday, the country’s geophysics agency said.

Torrential rain triggered flash flooding and landslides in Sumatra earlier in the week. Videos posted on social media showed water streaming down from rooftops as panicked residents scrambled to safety.

Heavy seasonal rain from about October to March often causes flooding and landslides in Indonesia – an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands including Sumatra – where millions of people live in mountainous areas or near fertile floodplains.

Last week, almost 1,000 people from three villages on Java were forced to flee to shelters after the eruption of Mount Semeru, the island’s highest volcano.

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Pope Leo visits Istanbul’s Blue Mosque during first overseas visit

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Pope Leo visits Istanbul's Blue Mosque during first overseas visit

The Pope has visited Istanbul’s Blue Mosque during a day spent meeting both Muslim and Christian leaders.

Pope Leo joined the imam at the 17th-century Ottoman-era mosque, officially called the Sultan Ahmed Mosque.

The trip marked part of the third day of his first overseas visit as head of the Catholic Church. He will travel to Lebanon on Sunday.

After the mosque visit, Leo held a private meeting with Turkey‘s Christian leaders at the Syriac Orthodox Church of Mor Ephrem.

Pics: AP
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Pics: AP

While the Vatican had said Leo would observe a “brief minute of silent prayer” at the Blue Mosque, the imam said the pope declined.

Speaking to reporters after the visit, Asgin Tunca said he had told the Pope: “It’s not my house, not your house, (it’s the) house of Allah.”

The imam added that he told the Pope: “‘If you want, you can worship here,’ I said. But he said, ‘that’s OK.’

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“He wanted to see the mosque, wanted to feel (the) atmosphere of the mosque, I think. And was very pleased.”

Later, Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni said: “The Pope experienced his visit to the mosque in silence, in a spirit of contemplation and listening, with deep respect for the place and the faith of those who gather there in prayer.”

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

File pic: CTK / AP
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File pic: CTK / AP

He is the latest pontiff to visit the holy site, with his recent predecessors Pope Francis and Pope Benedict also making visits in a gesture of respect to Turkey’s Muslim population.

Observing etiquette, Leo removed his shoes and walked through the carpeted mosque in his white socks.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

However, he did not visit the Hagia Sophia, one of the most important historic cathedrals in Christianity and located just across from the Blue Mosque.

In July 2020, Turkey converted Hagia Sophia from a museum back into a mosque, which was criticised by the Vatican.

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A woman outside the Syriac Orthodox church of Mor Ephrem during Pope Leo XIV's meeting. Pic: AP
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A woman outside the Syriac Orthodox church of Mor Ephrem during Pope Leo XIV’s meeting. Pic: AP

The Pope is set to end Saturday with a Catholic Mass in Istanbul’s Volkswagen Arena for the country’s Catholic community.

A religious minority, there are around 33,000 Catholics in Turkey, which has a population of more than 85 million people, most of whom are Sunni Muslim.

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