US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays

Published

2 months ago

August 2, 2025

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Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs but the most recent employment data has signalled a significant slowdown in hiring, with a tick upwards in the jobless rate.

The big risk ahead?

It’s the prospect of another self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

World

What recognising a Palestinian state actually means

Published

8 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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What recognising a Palestinian state actually means

The UK is planning to recognise Palestine as a state in a major shift in policy.

The announcement – expected today – comes ahead of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York next week.

While Sir Keir Starmer signalled the move in July, it was not made official before Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK, reportedly due to fears it could have dominated the meeting with the US president.

Here is what you need to know about the significance of recognising a Palestinian state.

What is the current status of Palestinian statehood?

The Palestinian Authority (PA), led by President Mahmoud Abbas, is internationally recognised as representing the Palestinian people.

The governing body exercises limited self-rule in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank under agreements with Israel. It issues Palestinian passports and runs the Palestinian health and education systems.

However, some trade, investment, educational and cultural exchanges are restricted by Israel and there are currently no Palestinian airports.

The landlocked West Bank can only be reached through Israel or through the Israeli-controlled border with Jordan. Israel also controls all access to the Gaza Strip.

Much of what would form a potential Palestinian state has been under Israeli military occupation for more than half a century.

Under the Montevideo Convention of 1933, there are several criteria before Palestine can be recognised as a sovereign state under international law.

The process requires the state to have:
• A permanent population;
• A defined territory;
• An effective government and international relations;
• Formal diplomatic processes including embassies, ambassadors and treaties.

The UK did not sign the 1933 convention, but in July some of Britain’s top lawyers wrote a letter to the government’s top legal adviser warning that recognising a Palestinian state could breach the convention, which they said has become part of “customary law”.

But others, including Philippe Sands KC, a professor of law at University College London, argued against this. He told The Guardian that the UN’s top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), has recognised that Palestinians have a right to “self-determination” – meaning a country determines its own statehood and forms its own government.

Is the move just symbolic?

The likes of China, India, Russia and many Arab states have recognised Palestinian independence for decades, but largely see it as a symbolic gesture, which has little influence on what happens on the ground.

However, in the UK’s case, recognising a Palestinian state could put the two on “equal footing” according to the Palestinian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Husam Zomlot.

This could result in strategic partnerships or lead to steps such as banning products that come from Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, Vincent Fean, a former British consul general to Jerusalem, told Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who was the first leader of a G7 country to endorse recognition, said the recognition would also come with a commitment that the PA would enact reforms, which, he says, would put it in a better position to govern a post-war Gaza.

Why is the UK acting now?

Sir Keir Starmer said in July that the time to recognise Palestine is now, as it would have the highest impact given the hope of a two-state solution – a “secure” Israel alongside a “viable” Palestinian state – was at risk.

He said it was part of an “eight-part plan” agreed with France and Germany, but denied it represented a U-turn after pressure from Labour MPs, saying instead it was always part of the plan to recognise Palestine.

Pressure has also been mounting on Sir Keir after Israel began a major ground offensive to take Gaza City on 16 September.

Despite widespread condemnation, Israeli tanks and troops have continued to push deeper into the city in a bid to destroy Hamas and force the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper called the operation “utterly reckless and appalling”.

The UK’s official declaration comes days before the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN General Assembly, where Gaza will be a major topic of discussion.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to talk at the assembly, but Mr Abbas has not been granted a US visa. It is likely he will instead appear via video.

What countries do (and do not) recognise Palestine?

As of September 2025, 147 out of 193 United Nations member states recognise Palestine. This includes more than a dozen in Europe, including Spain, Ireland and Norway.

Click, zoom in or search for a country to see their stance on recognising a Palestinian state:

Recognition from countries vs the United Nations

Without a full seat at the UN, the PA only has limited ability to conduct bilateral relations. This means a delegation officially representing the State of Palestine has permanent observer status but no voting rights.

No matter how many individual countries recognise Palestinian independence, full UN membership requires the approval of the Security Council.

Approval requires at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by the permanent ‘big five’ member states: UK, US, France, Russia and China.

If the Council approves the request, it goes to the General Assembly for approval, where a two-thirds majority is needed.

A state can’t join the UN without the backing of both the Security Council and the General Assembly.

In 2011, the Security Council looked at an application for Palestine to become a permanent member for several weeks but it was unable to reach a unanimous position, so a formal vote never took place.

Most recently, on 18 September, the US vetoed a Security Council resolution that had demanded an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages, saying the effort did not go far enough in condemning Hamas.

How have Palestinians and the Israelis responded?

When the UK, France and Canada announced in July they were planning to recognise Palestine as a state, the PA’s leader Mr Abbas expressed “thanks and appreciation” to all three countries.

Mr Netanyahu condemned the move, saying recognising a Palestinian state would be a “launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it”.

He says Israel will never give up ultimate security control of Gaza or the West Bank, and the decision to recognise Palestine as a state “constitutes a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of hostages”.

What about America?

The US, Israel’s closest ally, also remains opposed to official recognition of a Palestinian state.

During a press conference with Sir Keir in the UK on 18 September, Mr Trump told reporters he has a “disagreement” with his British counterpart over it.

In reaction to European allies recognising Palestinian independence, the US has imposed sanctions on Palestinian officials.

Within the US Senate, however, a group of Democratic senators have introduced a resolution to try and urge recognition of a Palestinian state – showing some divide in America’s two main political parties.

However, the resolution is unlikely to pass the chamber, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority.

How does this all link to a two-state solution?

Simply put, a two-state solution is widely regarded as the most viable framework for enabling Palestinian independence.

It would see an independent Palestinian state established alongside the existing state of Israel – giving both peoples their own territory.

Earlier in September, the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly – 142 votes in favour – to endorse a declaration outlining the “tangible, time bound, and irreversible steps” towards a two-state solution.

The declaration condemns the October 7 attacks by Hamas and the retaliatory action by Israel against civilians and infrastructure in Gaza. Israel and the US were among 10 member states that voted against the resolution.

The Palestinians seek an independent state in the occupied West Bank, annexed East Jerusalem and Gaza, territories that have been occupied by Israel since the 1967 Six-Day War.

Mr Netanyahu and most of Israel’s political class have long been opposed to Palestinian statehood, and argue that it would reward militants after October 7.

One of the biggest obstacles to a two-state solution would be deciding what the borders of a potential Palestinian state would be.

Many believe they should be the same ones that existed before 1967, but since then, increasing numbers of Israeli settlements have been established inside the West Bank, with around 600,000 Israelis now living there and in occupied East Jerusalem.

World

‘Better late than never’: Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be ‘courageous step’

Published

1 day ago

September 20, 2025

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'Better late than never': Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be 'courageous step'

Britain will be taking “a courageous step at a very difficult time” by officially recognising a Palestinian state, according to the authority’s foreign minister, who told Sky News she believes the announcement – expected in the coming days – will inspire more nations to follow suit.

The Palestinian Authority’s foreign minister, Varsen Aghabekian, told me Britain’s move was “better late than never”, and said “Britain, with its weight, can influence other countries to come forward and recognise, because that is the right thing to do”.

But she also said she is “very angry” with the White House over its “unwavering support” for Israel, and said that Israel’s refusal to pass on tax revenue was pushing Palestinian civil society to the brink of “collapse”.

Aghabekian was speaking as Britain, along with France, Canada and Australia, prepares to recognise the State of Palestine officially at the United Nations.

She told me: “Britain has been supporting the existence and the flourishing of Israel for some time, but I think today Britain is looking at the matter objectively, in terms of the right of people, in terms of complying with international law, and in terms of the future of this area for both the Israelis and Palestinians.”

She rejected the idea that recognising Palestine was a reward for Hamas terrorism, saying that “non-recognition” would also be a “reward to the extremists” and said that “if we wait until Israel decides it wants to go into negotiations with the Palestinians, then it won’t happen”.

Aghabekian told me she expected Gaza to be returned to the Palestinians, but I put it to her that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was being empowered by the diplomatic support he receives from America, and in particular, US President Donald Trump.

So is she angry with the White House? “Very angry, because I expect the White House and the United States of America to align with international law, with human rights, with having no double standards.

“This unwavering support for Israel, this blind support, is not only harming the Palestinians but also Israeli society.”

The state of Palestine is already recognised by three-quarters of the United Nations’ members. It comprises two separate territories – the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. Together, they are officially known as the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

The West Bank has been subject to Israeli military occupation since 1967, while Gaza has been attacked by Israel since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, when nearly 1,200 Israelis were killed and around 250 people were taken hostage.

Since then, more than 65,000 people have been killed in Gaza as Israel has sought to destroy Hamas and recover its hostages. There are 48 hostages still in Gaza, with 20 believed to be alive.

She confirmed to me that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, “has given guarantees in letters to various leaders around the globe that said Hamas will not be part of the governance of the Gaza Strip” and insisted there was “probably a worldwide consensus” on the topic.

But she also insisted it was “not reasonable” to talk of completely erasing Hamas: “Hamas is an ideology, not a building that you bring down. Hamas is in people’s minds; in their heads.

“Those who support Hamas need to see a future, need to see something that is moving on the political level, need to see that there might be a state in which their children and their grandchildren might prosper.

“What people see today, whether they are Hamas supporters or not, they see darkness and they see destruction all over. They see violation of rights. They are helpless and hopeless. People need to see things are moving forward, and once that happens, there will be a shift in the mood, and they will look for a better future.”

But just as the Palestinians prepare to welcome recognition, Aghabekian said the West Bank was facing financial collapse as Israel continues to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars of tax revenue that, under a 30-year-old agreement, it collects on the Palestinian Authority’s behalf.

Israel has retained a proportion of the money since the start of the war in Gaza, but, encouraged by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, it has recently withheld a much higher amount.

“People have not been paid, civil servants are only receiving small parts of their salaries. We can’t buy medical supplies, equipment, you name it,” said Aghabekian.

“How can a government run a country under such conditions? So yes, we are very worried.”

World

Dublin Airport terminal evacuated as ‘safety precaution’

Published

1 day ago

September 20, 2025

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Dublin Airport terminal evacuated as 'safety precaution'

Passengers have been evacuated from Dublin Airport’s Terminal 2 as a “precautionary measure”.

Flights could be “temporarily impacted”, the airport said in a statement.

It did not give any details about the reason for the evacuation but said “the safety and security of our passengers and staff is our absolute priority”.

At this stage there is no suggestion the evacuation is linked to the cyber attack that has caused disruption at several European airports.

“We advise passengers to check with their airline for the latest updates,” the airport added, saying further information would be provided as soon as it is available.

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