Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.
For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.
Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.
While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.
Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.
Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.
More on Donald Trump
Related Topics:
Why was 1 August such an important date?
To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.
Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.
The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:49
What does the UK-US trade deal involve?
Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.
The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.
Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.
Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?
The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.
China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.
Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.
There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:40
Millions of EU jobs were in firing line
Where does the UK stand?
We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.
While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.
Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.
UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.
Who has not done a deal?
Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.
America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.
Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.
Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.
What are the consequences?
This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.
The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.
It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.
Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.
Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.
Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.
Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.
US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs but the most recent employment data has signalled a significant slowdown in hiring, with a tick upwards in the jobless rate.
It’s the prospect of another self-inflicted wound.
The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?
The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.
It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.
A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.
The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.
Israel may have agreed to stop fighting in Gaza, but it is backing armed groups that plan to fight Hamas to the bitter end.
Sky News has confirmed for the first time that four anti-Hamas militias are all backed by Israel, and consider themselves part of a joint project to remove Hamas from power.
The groups are all operating from areas still under Israeli control, behind what’s been called the “yellow line” – the boundary for Israel Defence Forces (IDF) troop deployments established by the ceasefire agreement.
Datawrapper
This content is provided by Datawrapper, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Datawrapper cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Datawrapper cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Datawrapper cookies for this session only.
“We have an official project – me, [Yasser] Abu Shabab, [Rami] Halas, and [Ashraf] al Mansi,” says militia leader Hossam al Astal, speaking to Sky News from his base in southern Gaza.
Image: Hossam al Astal spoke to Sky News from his base near Khan Younis
“We are all for ‘The New Gaza’. Soon we will achieve full control of the Gaza Strip and will gather under one umbrella.”
The footage below, shared with Sky News, shows troops from Hossam al Astal’s militia parading near its base.
We used the video to identify the location of the militia’s headquarters for the first time.
It is situated on a military road that runs along the yellow line, less than 700 metres from the nearest IDF outpost.
“I’m hearing the sound of tanks now while I’m speaking, perhaps they’re out on patrol or something, but I’m not worried,” says al Astal.
“They don’t engage us, and we don’t engage them […] We’ve agreed, through the coordinator, that this is a green zone, not to be targeted by shelling or gunfire.”
The New Gaza
This area, now a patchwork of rubble and military berms, was once a leafy suburb of Gaza’s second city, Khan Younis.
Al Astal says he grew up here, but was forced to flee in 2010 after being pursued by Hamas over his involvement in militant groups aligned with their rival, the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA).
He spent the next 11 years abroad, working for the PA’s security services in Egypt and Malaysia.
Two months after he returned to Gaza, he was accused of involvement in the 2018 assassination of a Hamas member in Malaysia and sentenced to death.
“When the war started, they left us locked up, hoping the Israelis would bomb the prison and rid them of us,” he says. “Two months later, we broke down the doors and escaped.”
Image: Hossam al Astal poses with armed men from his militia in Khan Younis. Pic: Hossam Al Astal
He says that his weapons, mainly Kalashnikov rifles, are purchased from former Hamas fighters on the black market.
Ammunition and vehicles, on the other hand, are delivered through the Kerem Shalom border crossing after coordination with the Israeli military.
Datawrapper
This content is provided by Datawrapper, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Datawrapper cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Datawrapper cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Datawrapper cookies for this session only.
This is the same border crossing used by another militia leader, Yasser Abu Shabab.
Image: Yasser Abu Shabab (right), in a photo uploaded to his social media account. Pic: TikTok
Sky News previously revealed that Abu Shabab’s militia was smuggling vehicles into Gaza with the help of the Israeli military and an Arab-Israeli car dealer.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
5:01
Meet the militia group opposing Hamas
Al Astal says he uses the same car dealer. One of his vehicles appears to have Hebrew writing on the side, which has been partially scratched out.
He says his militia also receives weekly deliveries of everyday items needed to support the civilians living at the camp.
“We currently provide basic medical and education support to roughly 30 families,” he says.
“Children can get apples and bananas, food and drink, chips and so on. By contrast, in the other area, in the tents, you find five-, 10- or even 15-year-olds surviving on little more than lentils and pasta.”
He says these supplies come in via weekly deliveries. In the video below, a cargo truck can be seen at the militia’s base.
A similar cargo truck can be seen in satellite imagery of the camp, taken on 14 October.
Sky News has also confirmed that the other two militias, which are operating in the north of Gaza, are receiving supplies from Israel.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:49
New videos suggest Israeli support for Gaza militia
The video below, filmed by a member of Ashraf al Mansi’s militia, shows a car loaded with supplies driving towards their base.
Sky News previously confirmed that this road leads either from an IDF outpost or from the Erez border crossing with Israel.
Datawrapper
This content is provided by Datawrapper, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Datawrapper cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Datawrapper cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Datawrapper cookies for this session only.
A member of the other militia operating in northern Gaza, which is led by Rami Halas, told Sky News that coordination with the IDF is done indirectly through the District Coordination Office.
It’s part of the Israeli defence ministry, but also includes officials from the PA – Palestine’s internationally recognised government, based in the West Bank.
This fits with what we were told by al Astal, by an Israeli soldier stationed at Kerem Shalom, and by a senior commander in Abu Shabab’s militia – that coordination with the military is managed indirectly, and that the PA plays a key role.
“I have people within my group who are still, to this day, employees of the Palestinian Authority,” says al Astal.
The PA did not respond to Sky’s questions, but has previously denied having any relationship to these militias.
“The Palestinian Authority can’t admit to having a direct relationship with us,” the militia leader says.
“It already has enough issues and doesn’t want to add to that burden. You know, if word got out that they had ties with militias or with the occupation forces, you can imagine how that would look.”
Image: From top left clockwise: Yasser Abu Shabab, Ashraf al Mansi, Hossam al Astal and Rami Halas
Military coordination
Although he acknowledges working with Israel to secure supplies, al Astal denies he has ever coordinated military operations with the IDF.
Sky News previously reported that Israeli aircraft had intervened in two battles fought by Abu Shabab’s militia.
We asked Abu Shabab whether these were due to coordination, but did not receive a response.
Hamas accused al Astal’s militia group of direct military coordination after several of its fighters were killed when Israel intervened during a battle between the two groups on 3 October.
The footage below, published by the IDF, shows the strikes that day.
“I don’t control Israeli airstrikes,” al Astal says. “The Israelis simply saw armed Hamas military groups and struck them.”
In April, two months before he founded the militia, al Astal’s own tent was hit by an Israeli bomb. The strike killed his 22-year-old daughter, Nihad, who was seven months pregnant.
“People accuse me of collaboration,” he says. “How can anyone speak about me like that? Were the Israelis ‘joking around’ with me with a missile?”
He believes the strike was intended for a Hamas member living nearby.
“If I listed every crime against children and women, the blame wouldn’t rest on Israel but on Hamas, which hid among the people.”
Support from outside powers
Multiple sources also told Sky News that the militias are also receiving support from outside powers.
The deputy leader of Abu Shabab’s militia, Ghassan al Duhine, has twice been photographed next to a vehicle with a UAE-registered licence plate.
Image: Ghassan al Duhine poses in front of a car with a UAE licence plate, which is incompletely obscured. Pic: TikTok
Sky News also found that the logo of the group’s armed wing, the Counter Terrorism Service, is almost identical to that used by a UAE-backed militia of the same name operating in Yemen.
The logo used by al Astal’s militia, the Counter Terrorism Strike Force, similarly uses the same illustration as that used by a different UAE-backed militia, also based in Yemen.
The UAE did not respond to Sky’s request for comment.
When we asked al Astal whether he enjoyed the backing of the UAE, he smiled.
“God willing, in time everything will become clear,” he said. “But yes, there are Arab countries that support our project.”
That project, al Astal says, has a name: The New Gaza.
‘No war… no Hamas, no terrorism’
“Very soon, God willing, you will see this for yourselves; we will become the new administration of Gaza. Our project is ‘The New Gaza’. No war, at peace with everyone – no Hamas, no terrorism.”
Two days after Sky News spoke to al Astal, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor, Jared Kushner, used the phrase himself while suggesting that Gaza could be split indefinitely along the yellow line.
“No reconstruction funds will be going into areas that Hamas still controls,” Kushner told reporters on Wednesday.
“There are considerations happening now in the area that the IDF controls, as long as that can be secured, to start the construction as a ‘New Gaza’ in order to give Palestinians living in Gaza a place to go, a place to get jobs.”
The IDF declined to comment on these findings. Hamas, the PA and the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, the Israeli agency which manages the Israel-Gaza border, did not respond to our requests for comment.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The US has announced it is sending an aircraft carrier to the waters off South America as it ramps up an operation to target alleged drug smuggling boats.
The Pentagon said in a statement that the USS Gerald R Ford would be deployed to the region, including the Caribbean Sea, to “bolster US capacity to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities that compromise the safety and prosperity of the United States homeland and our security in the Western Hemisphere”.
The vessel is the US Navy’s largest aircraft carrier. It is currently deployed in the Mediterranean alongside three destroyers, and the group are expected to take around one week to make the journey.
There are already eight US Navy ships in the central and South American region, along with a nuclear-powered submarine, adding up to about 6,000 sailors and marines, according to officials.
It came as the US secretary of war claimed that six “narco-terrorists” had been killed in a strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat in the Caribbean Sea overnight.
Image: A still from footage purporting to show the boat seconds before the airstrike, posted by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on X
Pete Hegseth said his military had bombed a vessel which he claimed was operated by Tren de Aragua – a Venezuelan gang designated a terror group by Washington in February.
Writing on X, he claimed that the boat was involved in “illicit narcotics smuggling” and was transiting along a “known narco-trafficking route” when it was struck during the night.
All six men on board the boat, which was in international waters, were killed and no US forces were harmed, he said.
Ten vessels have now been bombed in recent weeks, killing more than 40 people.
Mr Hegseth added: “If you are a narco-terrorist smuggling drugs in our hemisphere, we will treat you like we treat al Qaeda. Day or NIGHT, we will map your networks, track your people, hunt you down, and kill you.”
While he did not provide any evidence that the vessel was carrying drugs, he did share a 20-second video that appeared to show a boat being hit by a projectile before exploding.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:32
Footage of a previous US strike on a suspected drugs boat earlier this week
Speaking during a White House news conference last week, Donald Trump argued that the campaign would help tackle the US’s opioid crisis.
“Every boat that we knock out, we save 25,000 American lives. So every time you see a boat, and you feel badly you say, ‘Wow, that’s rough’. It is rough, but if you lose three people and save 25,000 people,” he said.
It’s a question that’s got more relevant – and more urgent – over the last 24 hours.
The US government has just deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier and its associated battleships to the Caribbean, just off the coast of Venezuela.
So: what’s going on?
Well, on the face of it, it’s a drugs war. For weeks now, the Trump administration has been using the US military to “dismantle transnational criminal organisations and counter narco terrorism in the defence of the homeland”.
Basically: stopping the drugs supply into America.
Dealing with the demand might actually be more effective as a strategy, but that’s another story.
Donald Trump’s focus is to hit the supply countries and to hit them hard – and this is what that has looked like: drones and missiles taking out boats said to be carrying drugs from places like Venezuela into the US.
We can’t know for sure that these are drugs boats or if the people are guilty of anything, because the US government won’t tell us who the people are.
But alongside this, something bigger has been going on: a massive build-up of US troops in the Caribbean, over 6,000 sailors and marines are there.
Here’s the thing: an aircraft carrier is not remotely suited to stopping drug smuggling.
However, it is a vital element of any planned ground or air war.
Trump is focused on stopping the drugs, yes, but is there actually a wider objective here: regime change?
He has been clear in his belief in spheres of influence around the world – and his will and want to control and dominate the Western hemisphere.
Influence domination over Venezuela could fix the drug problem for sure, but much more too.
The world’s largest oil reserves? Yes, they’re in Venezuela.
On Thursday, appearing at a press conference with Mr Hegseth, Mr Trump said that it was necessary to kill the alleged smugglers, because if they were arrested they would only return to transport drugs “again and again and again”.
“They don’t fear that, they have no fear,” he told reporters.
The attacks at sea would soon be followed by operations on land against drug smuggling cartels, Mr Trump claimed.
“We’re going to kill them,” he added. “They’re going to be, like, dead.”
Some Democratic politicians have expressed concerns that the strikes risk dragging the US into a war with Venezuela because of their proximity to the South American country’s coast.
Others have condemned the attacks as extrajudicial killings that would not stand up in a court of law.
Jim Himes, a member of the House of Representatives, told CBS News earlier this month: “They are illegal killings because the notion that the United States – and this is what the administration says is their justification – is involved in an armed conflict with any drug dealers, any Venezuelan drug dealers, is ludicrous.”
He claimed that Congress had been told “nothing” about who was on the boats and how they were identified as a threat.
Turkey has urged the US to take action after accusing Israel of violating the Gaza ceasefire deal.
The country’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Washington and its allies should consider sanctions and halting arms sales to put pressure on Israel to abide by the agreement.
Turkey, a NATO member, joined ceasefire negotiations as a mediator, and increased its role following a meeting between Mr Erdogan and Donald Trump at the White House last month.
“The Hamas side is abiding by the ceasefire. In fact, it is openly stating its commitment to this. Israel, meanwhile, is continuing to violate the ceasefire,” Mr Erdogan told reporters.
“The international community, namely the United States, must do more to ensure Israel’s full compliance to the ceasefire and agreement,” he said.
Mr Erdogan was also asked about comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who hinted that he would be opposed to any peacekeeping role for Turkish security forces in the Gaza Strip.
The Turkish president said talks on the issue were still underway, adding: “As this is a multi-faceted issue, there are comprehensive negotiations. We are ready to provide Gaza any form of support on this issue.”
Israel has accused Hamas of breaching the truce and previously said its recent military action in Gaza was designed to uphold the agreement.
Relations between former allies Israel and Turkey hit new lows during the Gaza war, with Ankara accusing Mr Netanyahu’s government of committing genocide, an allegation Israel has repeatedly denied.
Image: A rally in support of Palestinians in Istanbul. Pic: Reuters
Speaking during a visit to Israel on Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that a planned international security force for Gaza would have to be made up of “countries that Israel’s comfortable with,” but declined to comment specifically on Turkey’s involvement.
Around 200 US troops are working alongside the Israeli military and delegations from other countries, planning the stabilisation and reconstruction of Gaza.
The US is seeking support from other allies, namely Gulf Arab nations, to build an international security force to be deployed to Gaza and train a Palestinian security force.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:15
Rubio warns against West Bank annexation
Mr Rubio said many nations had expressed interest, but decisions had yet to be made about the rules of engagement. He added that countries need to know what they were signing up for.
“Under what authority are they going to be operating? Who’s going to be in charge? What is their job?” said Mr Rubio.
The secretary of state also reiterated his earlier warning to Israel not to annex the occupied West Bank, land that Palestinians want for part of an independent state.
A bill applying Israeli law to the West Bank won preliminary approval from Israel’s parliament on Wednesday.
Image: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with US military personnel in Israel. Pic: Reuters
“We don’t think it’s going to happen”, Mr Rubio said, adding that annexation “would also threaten this whole process”.
“If [annexation] were to happen, a lot of the countries that are involved in working on this probably aren’t going to want to be involved in this anymore. It’s a threat to the peace process and everybody knows it”, he added.