Nvidia‘s H20 chips are likely to return to China, but tech experts don’t expect them to be met with the same fanfare in the market in light of new competition and regulatory scrutiny.
The Trump administration last month gave Nvidia assurances that it would be permitted to resume sales of its H20 chips to China, after their exports had been effectively banned in April. It also announced a new “fully compliant” made-for-China chip.
The move was seen as a huge win for the company, which had flagged billions in losses due to the policy. But while the H20s might be returning to the Chinese market that doesn’t mean Nvidia will regain its former market share, analysts caution.
In a recent report, global equity research and brokerage firm Bernstein forecast that Nvidia’s AI chip market share in China would drop to 54% in 2025, from 66% the year prior.
This drop is only partly owed to complications with resuming chip supply, as Chinese AI chipmakers have been seizing more of the booming domestic market.
“U.S. export controls have created a unique opportunity for domestic AI processor vendors, as they are not competing with the most advanced global alternatives,” Bernstein’s report said, noting growing prominence of Chinese players such as Huawei, Cambricon and Hygon. “The localization ratio of China’s AI chip market will surge from 17% in 2023 to 55% by 2027.”
Other analysts such as The Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman were more bullish about Nvidia’s bounce back in China. However, he also flagged potential market share erosion from Nvidia customers that might have found success with Chinese rivals while the H20 controls were in place.
It’s also worth noting that Bernstein’s predictions assume that broader U.S. chip restrictions will remain largely unchanged. That creates a dynamic where Chinese companies continue to develop and offer advanced chips, possibly eroding demand for outdated U.S. offerings.
Further easing?
Ahead of rolling back the H20 restrictions, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had been lobbying for more access to China, claiming export controls were inhibiting U.S. tech leadership.
While Trump administration officials had said the rollback was part of trade negotiations, analysts have echoed Nvidia’s basic argument that chip controls for the China market should be eased, thereby creating more dependency on U.S. tech offerings.
“The assumption is that by keeping U.S. technology companies in the China game, the U.S. can preserve and even grow its geopolitical leverage,” Reva Goujon, director at Rhodium Group, told CNBC.
In a report last month, Rhodium Group said that this logic may see the administration shift to a “sliding scale” approach to export restrictions that could allow U.S. chipmakers greater access to China as Huawei and other Chinese chipmakers continue to upgrade.
However, while Chinese AI developers will be happy to have increased access to Nvidia chips, Beijing isn’t expected to slow its efforts to steer companies toward homegrown AI infrastructure, according to Goujon.
She noted that the Cyberspace Administration of China’s recent summons to Nvidia was an obvious signal of the state’s intention to intervene in the local AI infrastructure market.
New Beijing scrutiny
According to the Cyberspace Administration of China, Nvidia met with Beijing officials on Thursday regarding national security concerns posed by the H20 chips, including potential backdoors that would allow parties in the U.S. to access or control them.
Beijing’s move appeared to come in response, at least partially, to new laws proposed in the U.S. that would require semiconductor companies such as Nvidia to include security mechanisms and location verification in their advanced AI chips. Nvidia later denied that its chips have any “backdoors” that would allow external access or control.
The move by Beijing was also likely an attempt to create some hesitation among Chinese AI developers looking to buy the new H20s, according to Futurum’s Newman.
“China wants to leave some levers in place to potentially restrict outside AI chips at some point down the line if and when it feels its homegrown technology is truly competitive,” Newman said.
Beijing has previously restricted American chipmakers’ business in China amid periods of intense technology and trade tensions between the two countries. Micron Technology, for instance, failed a cybersecurity review in 2023 and was subsequently blocked from critical IT infrastructure.
“The continued complexity of China-U.S. trade relations could bring further complications [for Nvidia] as negotiations continue and as China attempts to cement its own AI strategy,” Newman added.
People walk past an Amazon Fresh store in Washington, DC, on August 26, 2021.
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Amazon plans to close all of its Fresh supermarkets in the U.K., in the latest recalibration of its grocery strategy.
The company said in a Tuesday blog that it’s preparing to close all 19 of its Fresh U.K. stores, “following a thorough evaluation of business operations and the very substantial growth opportunities in online delivery.” Five of the Fresh locations are expected to be converted into Whole Foods stores, Amazon said.
Amazon opened its first Fresh location outside the U.S. in London in 2021, about a year after it debuted the store concept in the Woodland Hills neighborhood of Los Angeles. Fresh stores offer cheaper prices and more mass-market items compared to Whole Foods, the upscale supermarket chain Amazon acquired for $13.7 billion in 2017. Many of the stores also feature Amazon’s cashierless “Just Walk Out” technology.
The Fresh store pullback in the U.K. comes as Amazon has continued to adjust its grocery ambitions. The company has slowed expansion of its Fresh grocery chain and Go cashierless stores in the U.S. It still maintains 500 Whole Foods locations and has opened mini “daily shop” Whole Foods stores in New York City.
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At the same time, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and other company executives have touted the success of sales of “everyday essentials” within its online grocery business, which refers to items like canned goods, paper towels, dish soap and snacks.
Jassy told investors at the company’s annual shareholder meeting in May that he remains “bullish” on grocery, calling it a “significant business” for Amazon.
The company on Tuesday also said that it plans to offer same-day delivery of groceries, including perishable items, in the U.K. beginning next year.
The Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD presents its models at the Open Space Area during the IAA Mobility in Munich, Bavaria, Germany, on September 12, 2025.
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BYD has a backup plan if it gets cut off from the Nvidia chips it currently uses in its cars, a top executive at the Chinese electric carmaker told CNBC on Tuesday.
Stella Li, executive vice president at BYD, said the company had not received any directive from the Chinese government to stop using Nvidia chips — but if it did, it has a plan B.
“Everybody has a backup. BYD has [a] backup,” Li told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Li declined to expand on what the plan is, but she pointed to the Covid-19 pandemic during which there was a global shortage of semiconductors which badly affected the auto sector. BYD had “no issue” at the time because it developed a lot of its technology in-house, he said, so it was able to source alternatives quickly.
Indeed, BYD has sought to have control over large parts of its supply chain, from manufacturing its own cars to developing its own batteries.
“We have a lot of strong … even deeper technology in-house, so we always have backup,” Li said.
Nvidia, whose chips underpin much of the world’s artificial intelligence development, has been caught in the crossfire amid U.S.-China tensions. The company’s H20 AI chip — designed specifically to comply with U.S. export restrictions to China — was first banned, then permitted to be sold in China this year after a revenue-share deal between Washington and Nvidia.
Nvidia designs an entirely different set of semiconductors for cars, however.
One of Nvidia’s systems, Nvidia Drive AGX Orin, is designed to enable cars to carry out some driving tasks autonomously. BYD is a customer of this product.
There is no indication so far that the Chinese government is looking to ban this Nvidia system.
Li said BYD had not been told to stop using any Nvidia products, adding it was unlikely that Beijing would ban the U.S. firm’s auto chips.
“I don’t think any country will do that, because this automatic will kill Nvidia,” Li said. “So Nvidia now is the highest market value company, so if they lose the big market from China … nobody wants to see this.”
Amazon and the Federal Trade Commission are squaring off in a long-awaited trial over whether the company duped users into paying for Prime memberships.
The lawsuit, filed by the FTC in June 2023 under the Biden administration, alleges that Amazon deceived tens of millions of customers into signing up for its Prime subscription program and sabotaged their attempts to cancel it. Amazon has denied any wrongdoing.
The trial is being held in a federal court in Seattle, Amazon’s backyard. Jury selection began Monday and opening arguments are slated for Tuesday, with the trial expected to last about a month.
Launched in 2005, Amazon’s Prime program has grown to become one of the most popular subscription services in the world, with more than 200 million members globally, and it has generated billions of dollars for the company. Membership costs $139 a year and includes perks like free shipping and access to streaming content. Data has shown that Prime members spend more and shop more often than non-Prime members.
Amazon founder and executive chairman Jeff Bezos famously said the company wanted Prime “to be such a good value, you’d be irresponsible not to be a member.”
Regulators argue that Amazon broke competition and consumer protection laws by tricking customers into subscribing to Prime. They pointed to examples like a button on its site that instructed users to complete their transaction and did not clearly state they were also agreeing to join Prime for a recurring subscription.
“Millions of consumers accidentally enrolled in Prime without knowledge or consent, but Amazon refused to fix this known problem, described internally by employees as an ‘unspoken cancer’ because clarity adjustments would lead to a drop in subscribers,” the agency wrote in a court filing last week.
The FTC says that the cancellation process is equally confusing, requiring users to navigate four webpages and choose from 15 options — a “labyrinthian mechanism” that the company referred to internally as “Iliad,” referencing Homer’s epic poem about the Trojan War.
Amazon has argued that the Prime sign up and cancellation processes are “clear and simple,” adding that the company has “always been transparent about Prime’s terms.”
“Occasional customer frustrations and mistakes are inevitable — especially for a program as popular as Amazon Prime,” the company wrote in a recent court filing. “Evidence that a small percentage of customers misunderstood Prime enrollment or cancellation does not prove that Amazon violated the law.”
A crackdown on ‘dark patterns’
The FTC notched an early win in the case last week when U.S. District Court Judge John Chun ruled Amazon and two senior executives violated the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act by gathering Prime members’ billing information before disclosing the terms of the service.
Chun also said that the two senior Amazon executives would be individually liable if a jury sides with the FTC due to the level of oversight they maintained over the Prime enrollment and cancellation process.
Amazon’s Prime boss Jamil Ghani and Neil Lindsay, a senior vice president in its health division who previously oversaw Prime’s technology and business operations, are named defendants in the complaint.
Russell Grandinetti, Amazon senior vice president of international consumer, is also named in the suit, but Chun argued he had “less involvement in the operation of the Prime organization” compared to Ghani and Lindsay.
Chun also scolded attorneys for Amazon in July for withholding thousands of documents from the FTC and abusing a legal privilege to shield them from scrutiny. Among the documents was a 2020 email where Amazon’s retail chief Doug Herrington said “subscription driving” was a “shady” practice and referred to Bezos as the company’s “chief dark arts officer.”
Representatives from Amazon didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Amazon also faces a separate lawsuit brought by the FTC in 2023 accusing it of wielding an illegal monopoly. That case is set to go to trial in February 2027.
The Prime case is part of the FTC’s broader crackdown on so-called “dark patterns,” which it began examining in 2022. The phrase refers to deceptive design tactics meant to steer users toward buying products or services or giving up their privacy.
The agency brought a similar dark patterns lawsuit against Uber in April, accusing the ride-hailing and delivery company of deceptive billing and cancellation practices tied to its Uber One subscription service. Uber has disputed the FTC’s allegations.
Earlier this year, it reached settlements with online dating service Match and online education firm Chegg over claims that their subscription practices were deceptive or hard to cancel.