Chancellor warned ‘substantial tax rises’ needed – as she faces ‘impossible trilemma’
Rachel Reeves will need to find more than £40bn of tax rises or spending cuts in the autumn budget to meet her fiscal rules, a leading research institute has warned.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the government would miss its rule, which stipulates that day to day spending should be covered by tax receipts, by £41.2bn in the fiscal year 2029-30.
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In its latest UK economic outlook, NIESR said: “This shortfall significantly increases the pressure on the chancellor to introduce substantial tax rises in the upcoming autumn budget if she hopes to remain compliant with her fiscal rules.”
The deteriorating fiscal picture was blamed on poor economic growth, higher than expected borrowing and a reversal in welfare cuts that could have saved the government £6.25bn.
Together they have created an “impossible trilemma”, NIESR said, with the chancellor simultaneously bound to her fiscal rules, spending commitments, and manifesto pledges that oppose tax hikes.
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The institute urged the government to build a larger fiscal buffer through moderate but sustained tax rises.
“This will help allay bond market fears about fiscal sustainability, which may in turn reduce borrowing costs,” it said.
“It will also help to reduce policy uncertainty, which can hit both business and consumer confidence.”
It said that money could be raised by reforms to council tax bands or, in a more radical approach, by replacing the whole council tax system with a land value tax.
To reduce spending pressures, NIESR called for a greater focus on reducing economic inactivity, which could bring down welfare spending.
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Growth to remain sluggish
The report was released against the backdrop of poor growth, with the chancellor struggling to ignite the economy after two months of declining GDP.
The institute is forecasting modest economic growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. That means Britain will rank mid-table among the G7 group of advanced economies.
‘Things are not looking good’
However, inflation is likely to remain persistent, with the consumer price index (CPI) likely to hit 3.5% in 2025 and around 3% by mid-2026. NIESR blamed sustained wage growth and higher government spending.
It said the Bank of England would cut interest rates twice this year and again at the beginning of next year, taking the rate from 4.25% to 3.5%.
Persistent inflation is also weighing on living standards: the poorest 10% of UK households saw their living standards fall by 1.3% in 2024-25 compared to the previous year, NIESR said. They are now 10% worse off than they were before the pandemic.
Professor Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomics at NIESR, said the government faced tough choices ahead: “With growth at only 1.3% and inflation above target, things are not looking good for the chancellor, who will need to either raise taxes or reduce spending or both in the October budget.”
Sir Ed Davey has written to King Charles to explain why he believes he has to refuse his invite to a state banquet for Donald Trump.
The Lib Dem leader said on Wednesday he will be boycotting the dinner next month during the US president’s second state visit to the UK because of the situation in Gaza.
He told Sky News on Thursday: “I’ve written to him [the King] personally explaining my thinking.
“And it’s with deep regret that I’ve had to take the decision, but I feel with what is going on in Gaza, it’s the best way I can get my voice heard.”
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Sir Ed said the “sad truth” is Mr Trump is the “one man” who has the power to stop the “horrible famine in Gaza, could get the hostages released, could bring an end to this horrendous humanitarian crisis”.
He said the US president could do that by phoning up Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and telling him to stop.
The Lib Dem leader said Mr Trump could also call up the Qatari government and other Gulf states to get them to put pressure on Hamas to release the remaining 50 Israeli hostages (20 living, 30 dead) they took on 7 October 2023.
The King and Donald Trump during his first state visit in 2019. Pic: Reuters
He emphasised that he has “huge respect” for the King and it was a very difficult decision he “really wrestled with” and involved him talking to his wife and praying about it.
Sir Ed denied it was political posturing and instead is one of the only ways he could get Mr Trump to listen.
“I didn’t want him to come to the UK without being reminded, as best I can, that he has that moral responsibility, frankly,” he added.
“And from what I’m picking up from many people, there are people across the political spectrum who agree with me and the Democrats that it is Donald Trump, it is the United States who has this power over Netanyahu, over Hamas, albeit indirectly, to stop this horrendous situation.”
Publicly refusing the King’s invite is “the best way I can get my voice heard,” Sir Ed said.
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King Charles will host a state dinner for Donald Trump. Pic: PA
Tony Blair at White House Gaza meeting
While Sir Ed is choosing to snub Mr Trump to get his voice heard, former Labour prime minister Sir Tony Blair has been asked by the US president for help on Gaza.
Sir Tony joined a White House meeting on Wednesday, chaired by Mr Trump, to discuss the war in Gaza and post-war plans for the Palestinian territory, a senior White House official confirmed.
They were joined by Mr Trump’s former Middle East envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to also discuss the hostage crisis and plans to escalate food aid deliveries.
The official described it as “simply a policy meeting”.
In July, the Financial Times reported the Tony Blair Institute had participated in a project to develop a post-war Gaza plan, with the think tank having “had many calls with different groups on post-war reconstruction of Gaza but none included the idea of forcible relocation of people from Gaza”.
Sir Ed called on Sir Tony to be quizzed in parliament about his discussions with the Trump administration.
“If he has special insight into Trump’s intentions, it’s only right that parliament and the government are made privy to this,” he said.
“We must leverage all the information and resources at our disposal to make Trump do the right thing.”
The change is part of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “crypto sprint,” an initiative to overhaul regulations in response to proposals from the Trump administration.
The US government announced on Tuesday that it is publishing economic data onchain to boost transparency for government spending.
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