Why India is in Trump’s crosshairs when crude is not even sanctioned
Technicians stand next to an oil rig which is manufactured by Megha Engineering and Infrastructures Limited (MEIL) at an Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) plant, during a media tour of the plant in Dhamasna village in the western state of Gujarat, India, August 26, 2021.
Amit Dave | Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump added further pressure to India on Wednesday by bumping up tariffs to 50% — but calls for India to immediately stop buying Russian oil could cause global crude prices to spike, industry sources told CNBC.
Trump has accused India of “fueling” Russia’s war machine and said the country is “directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.” As a result, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing total levies against the major U.S. trading partner to 50%.
India was once encouraged to buy Russian crude by the United States, and, unlike LNG, Russian crude isn’t sanctioned, but traded under a price cap to limit Moscow’s ability to profit from its sale. India is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil, according to data from Kpler which shows total Russian crude exports amount to around 3.35 million barrels per day, of which India takes about 1.7 million and China 1.1 million.
In New Delhi, there must be “confusion,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House energy advisor to former President George W. Bush, told CNBC.
“Joe Biden went to India after the invasion of Ukraine and begged them to take Russian oil, the Indians hardly imported any Russian oil, and they begged India, ‘please take the oil,’ so that crude prices would remain low, and they did. Now we’re flipping around and saying, ‘why are you taking all this oil,'” McNally added.
Industry sources in the Indian petroleum sector told CNBC the country has abided by all international sanctions, and that India is doing the global economy a “favor” by buying Russian oil which in turn, stabilizes prices. The sources did not wish to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
India has argued that it if it were to stop buying Russian oil, a plan must be put in place to stabilize energy markets, along with a contingency to fill the shortfall in supply if Russian barrels are taken off the market.
“In case India decides to cut Russian oil imports, the refineries likely would try to find alternative barrels from the Middle East, as they used to rely on those barrels until 2022. Likely other buyers would not step in,” Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS told CNBC.
Russia is the third largest global crude producer, after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Moscow produces nearly 11 million barrels of oil per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. India’s Russian crude oil imports was 38% in both 2023 and 2024 and is currently 36% in 2025. Total Indian crude imports are increasing each year with rising demand, and as a result, imports of Russian crude in 2025 are their strongest annual pace yet.
If this supply was to be removed from the market, prices would skyrocket, according to the industry sources in the Indian petroleum sector. “If India were to stop buying Russian crude oil today, global crude prices could jump to over $200 per barrel for all global consumers,” an industry source told CNBC.
“Very near term, there is a risk of a pop in brent prices to $80 or above,” McNally told CNBC, signaling that the impact of additional tariffs and a potential cut to Russian oil imports would be significantly less catastrophic.
U-turn
“When they didn’t want India to buy something, they told us,” an industry source in the Indian petroleum sector said. This was indeed the case when India was once purchasing Iranian crude, which New Delhi no longer buys and is now sanctioned as Washington doubles down on its maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic.
Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s petroleum minister, last month told CNBC’s Dan Murphy: “The price of oil would have gone up to 130 dollars a barrel. That was a situation in which we were advised, including by our friends in the United States, to please buy Russian oil, but within the price cap.”
Sara Vakhshouri, the founder and president of SVB Energy International, told CNBC the hefty duties announced by Trump are a “negotiation tactic,” aimed at “reclaiming lost U.S. oil market share in India and oil export declines since 2022, and securing equivalent export of other commodity to India.”
“India has always coordinated closely on US oil policy, including sanctions on Iranian oil. At the same time, for the Trump administration, energy security, affordability, and reliability are priorities” Vakhshouri added.
Russian crude has been placed under a price cap by the European Union since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That price cap, set at $60 per barrel, allows Russia to export its crude, but at a price lower than the commodity generally trades. The aim is to limit Moscow’s revenue from oil exports, constricting the country’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. The policy was implemented by G7 nations, hoping to maintain a stable supply of Russian oil on the market.
Sources within the Indian petroleum sector told CNBC “the price cap is a $1 to $2 difference” and insists New Delhi is not buying Russian crude at a major discount per barrel.
Even Russian LNG is not “completely under US secondary sanctions, Europe still buys gas from Russia via pipelines and LNG. Only some Russian LNG export terminals (e.g. Artic LNG 2) are under sanctions, but not all LNG exports,” UBS’ Staunovo, told CNBC.
In 2021, Russia was the largest supplier of petroleum to the European Union. After the bloc’s ban on seaborne imports of Russian crude, the share of imports from Moscow fell from 29% to 2% in the 2025. The EU still imports 19% of its LNG from Russia, according to data from the first quarter of 2025 from Eurostat.
Russia is a member of OPEC plus, established alongside Saudi Arabia in 2016. The group works to stabilize oil prices, adjusting output based on market fundamentals and trends in supply and demand. A group of eight producers just moved days ago to raise output in September, fully unwinding cuts and helping calm fears of Russian supply concerns.
“While OPEC+ countries hold spare capacity to tackle supply disruptions, a full drop in Russian crude production/exports would see that spare capacity completely dwindling. The Biden administration was aware of this,” UBS’ Staunovo said.
The Russian price cap aimed “to reduce the revenues of the Russian government by allowing Russian oil to remain in the markets and to prevent an oil price spike,” Staunovo added, noting that these decisions were made in the run up to a presidential election in the U.S.
Now, after winning that very election, Trump means business. Before slapping an additional 25% tariff on India on Wednesday, he told CNBC that India “hasn’t been a good trading partner.”
It means that U.S. ties with New Delhi, a key security and defense partner, could be at risk. India responded sharply to Trump’s criticism on Wednesday, saying it was “unjustified and unreasonable” and that it bought Russian oil with U.S. support.
Jack Dorsey, co-founder and chief executive officer of Twitter Inc. and Square Inc., listens during the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, Florida, on Friday, June 4, 2021.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Block shares jumped in extended trading on Thursday after the fintech company increased its forecast for the year.
Here is how the company did, compared to analysts’ consensus estimates from LSEG.
- Earnings per share: 62 cents adjusted vs. 69 cents expected
Block doesn’t report a revenue figure, but said gross profit rose 14% from a year earlier to $2.54 billion, beating analysts’ estimates of $2.46 billion for the quarter. Gross payment volume increased 10% to $64.25 billion.
Block raised its guidance for full-year gross profit to $10.17 billion, representing 14% growth from a year earlier. In its prior earnings report, Block said gross profit for the year would come in at $9.96 billion.
The company expects full-year adjusted operating income of $2.03 billion, or a 20% margin. For the third quarter, the company expects gross profit to grow 16% from a year ago to $2.6 billion, with an operating margin of 18%.
Square payment volume in the quarter grew 10% from a year earlier.
Block faces growing competition from rivals such as Toast and Fiserv‘s Clover, though its Square business still gained share during the quarter in areas such as retail and food and beverage.
Block shares were down 10% this year as of Thursday’s close, while the Nasdaq is up 10%. Last month, Block was added to the S&P 500.
— CNBC’s Robert Hum contributed to this report.
Environment
The new Chevy Bolt EV will get cheaper LFP batteries from China’s CATL, at least for now
Until GM builds its own, the new Chevy Bolt EV will use lower-cost LFP batteries from China’s CATL. GM will temporarily lean on CATL to power its most affordable electric vehicle.
The new Chevy Bolt EV will use batteries from China
The new Chevy Bolt EV is set to begin rolling off the production line at GM’s assembly plant in Fairfax, Kansas, later this year.
GM’s CEO Mary Barra promises the new EV will arrive with “substantial improvements,” including longer range, faster charging, and a stylish new look. It will also be the company’s first EV based on the Ultium platform to launch with LFP batteries in North America.
Although the batteries were initially expected to be made in-house, it appears that GM will import them from China, at least for the next few years.
A new report from The Wall Street Journal claims GM will import LFP batteries from CATL to power the new Chevy Bolt EV over the next two years.
According to sources close to the matter, GM will rely on CATL for batteries until it begins producing more affordable EV batteries in collaboration with LG Energy Solutions in 2027.
“To stay competitive, GM will temporarily source these packs from similar suppliers to power our most affordable EV model,” a company spokesperson said. The statement added that “For several years, other US automakers have depended on foreign suppliers for LFP battery sourcing and licensing.”
Ford is licensing technology from CATL to produce LFP batteries in Michigan, which will power its next-generation electric vehicles.
Given Trump’s new tariff and trade policies, GM will face hefty import costs from China. According to Sam Abuelsamid from auto research firm Telemetry, combined with other cost-cutting measures, “the new Bolt with Chinese batteries may still be marginally profitable or “close enough.” He added that “It may be that the economics work for GM to do this on a temporary basis.”
Just over a week ago, Chevy offered a sneak peek at the new Bolt EV with the first teaser images. It’s scheduled to enter production later this year and will arrive at US dealerships in 2026.
Although GM has yet to announce prices and specs, the new Bolt EV is expected to start at around $30,000 with a range of around 300 miles. It will also be the second GM electric vehicle, following the Cadillac Optiq-V, with a built-in NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers.
Electrek’s Take
Chinese battery makers, including CATL and BYD, are dominating the global market with lower-cost and more advanced tech.
According to new data from SNE Research, CATL and BYD widened their lead in the first half of 2025. CATL held the top spot with a 37.9% market share while BYD was second at 17.8%.
The combined market share of South Korean battery makers, LG Energy Solution, SK On, and Samsung SDI, fell to 16.4%, a 5.4% decline from the first half of 2024.
Although the deal may work out in GM’s favor, it still highlights the significant gap between US auto and battery makers and their Chinese counterparts.
Meanwhile, GM’s current most affordable electric model, the Chevy Equinox EV, is expected to be among the top three best-selling EVs in the US this year, behind the Tesla Model Y and Model 3. GM calls it “America’s most affordable 315+ range EV” with starting prices under $35,000.
Will the new Bolt EV see the same demand? With prices expected to start at around $30,000, it will be one of the lowest-priced electric vehicles in the US.
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Despite a full lineup of electric models rolling out, Cadillac now plans to keep offering at least one popular gas-powered SUV.
Cadillac XT5 SUV will keep a gas engine in the US
GM’s luxury brand was supposed to go all-electric by the end of the decade. Although it already walked back its commitment last year, Cadillac has now confirmed which popular gas SUV will stick around a while longer.
The Cadillac XT5, the brand’s best-selling vehicle outside of the Escalade, will continue to be sold in North America.
The news was first reported by The Detroit Free Press, which cited a recent memo from GM to UAW workers. Although Cadillac had planned to end XT5 production at the end of the year, GM informed workers that it will continue to be built until the end of 2026.
The current Cadillac XT5 will continue to be sold until the 2027 model year arrives in the US, which will still feature a gas engine.
It could arrive as a potential hybrid, similar to the XT5 sold in China, which features a 2.0L turbocharged engine combined with a 48V electric motor. No fully electric version was mentioned.
GM will continue Cadillac XT5 production in Spring Hill, Tennessee, alongside the Lyriq and Vistiq electric SUVs.
Cadillac claims to be the leading luxury EV brand in the US with a full lineup of electric SUVs. However, that doesn’t include Tesla. The luxury brand now offers the entry-level Optiq, mid-size Lyriq, three-row Vistiq, and even larger Escalade IQ and IQL electric models.
In the first half of the year, nearly 25% of Cadillac vehicles sold in the US were electric. The XT5 was Cadillac’s second-best-selling vehicle, with over 12,700 units sold. The Escalade was its top seller with over 24,300 models sold through June.
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