2025 Big Ten football preview: Power rankings, top players, key games
Will Ohio State claim the Big Ten title in 2025, or will Penn State finally break through in 2025?
The college football season is less than a month away, and it looks like these two perennial Big Ten powers will have the best shot to not just win the conference, but the College Football Playoff, too. But it won’t be without stiff competition from Oregon, which won the league last season.
In addition to the Big Ten’s playoff race, eyes will be on UCLA and Nico Iamaleava following his exit from Tennessee.
We get you caught up on the Big Ten by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, power rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFP outlook
Should be in: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon. Defending national champion Ohio State always will be penciled into the CFP field, even after losing 14 NFL draft picks, tied for the most in team history. The Buckeyes have wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, considered the nation’s best overall player, as well as safety Caleb Downs, arguably the No. 1 defender. But it’s Penn State, not Ohio State, that enters the fall as possibly the Big Ten’s strongest national contender. The Nittany Lions replace less than the other three teams that reached last year’s CFP semifinals, as they return quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and several standout defenders. Oregon is amazingly being overlooked a bit after winning the Big Ten in its debut season and becoming the only FBS team to finish the regular season at 13-0. The Ducks lost 10 NFL draft picks but will return a talented defensive front seven and add several top transfers and recruits.
In the running: Illinois, Michigan, Indiana. Illinois returns the core players from its first 10-win team since 2001, and it could become this year’s version of Indiana, especially with more explosiveness on offense and stout line play. If the Illini can navigate September road tests against Duke and, yes, Indiana, look out for Bret Bielema’s squad. Michigan hopes to rejoin the CFP mix after its strong finish to last season, leaning on a talented defensive front and possibly incoming freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. Indiana largely will be counted out, but not here, as the team retained several All-Big Ten players from the historic CFP team, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen from the portal. Iowa occasionally found itself in the four-team CFP mix and could take a leap if transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski elevates the offense.
Long shots: Nebraska, USC, Minnesota, Washington. Nebraska has had a tough time merely making bowl appearances in the Big Ten, but could be primed for a jump in wins, as quarterback Dylan Raiola returns to lead the squad. The Huskers are also helped by a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Oregon, and has no true road game until Oct. 11. USC is still seeking its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley and could enter the mix if it plays better away from home, where it dropped four games by seven points or fewer. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is also seeking better results in one-score games and told ESPN that the CFP “isn’t a pipe dream.” Washington is only two years removed from a national title game appearance and brings back a team with upside, particularly dynamic young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. — Adam Rittenberg and Jake Trotter
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s Big Ten conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two huge nonconference games — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. That second part is key, as neither Penn State (two) nor Ohio State (three) have many projected close games on the docket.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and Michigan at Oklahoma (Sept. 6). The biggest games of Weeks 1 and 2 are Big Ten vs. SEC affairs, though they take on different flavors. Texas-Ohio State is a rematch of last year’s delightful CFP semifinal, in which Jack Sawyer’s late scoop-and-score ended a Longhorns comeback attempt. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes will almost certainly start out in the AP top 5. Meanwhile, Michigan and Oklahoma are looking for ways back into the top 10, and both will bring remodeled offenses to the table.
Illinois at Indiana (Sept. 20). If things play out as forecasted and we have two different races going on in the Big Ten — the big names vying for the conference title and the pool of 14 other teams fighting among each other for another playoff spot — then this is the biggest Illinois-Indiana game of all time. The loser will have to be just about perfect to get to 10-2 and a potential bid.
Oregon at Penn State (Sept. 27). The Week 5 slate is overloaded with big games, but this will almost certainly be the biggest. The Ducks and Nittany Lions will almost certainly be a combined 7-0 at this point, as neither team will have played a top-50 team.
USC at Illinois (Sept. 27) and Indiana at Iowa (Sept. 27). Like I said, there’s just way too much going on in Week 5. Goodness.
Michigan at USC (Oct. 11). By this point, Michigan will have already played at Oklahoma and Nebraska and could be 5-0 and in the top 10, or 3-2 and flailing. USC will have just visited Illinois and could be 5-0 or flailing as well. This game will be huge, for any of about 17 different reasons.
Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1). In terms of combined SP+ ratings, this is the single biggest game of the 2025 regular season.
Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8). Whether PSU is coming off of a win or a loss in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will desperately need to move on and avoid a hangover.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29). Proof that even in a 12-team CFP era, a rivalry loss can send you into a spectacular, existential tailspin. (And proof that you might be able to steer out of it a little better now.)
Three freshmen to watch
Malik Washington, QB, Maryland
Washington already arrived on campus facing immense expectations after the four-star Maryland native opted to stay home and attend the school he grew up idolizing. His spring game showing — he went 12-of-18 for 170 yards and two touchdowns — did little to dispel any optimism he could become the face of a program resurrection in College Park. At 6-foot-5, 231 pounds, Washington is a true dual-threat with arm talent and mobility. His accuracy and ability to change arm angles should mesh well in an RPO scheme. Carving out a path to contention in the Big Ten won’t be easy, and he’ll need to beat out UCLA transfer Justyn Martin for the starting gig, but Washington has game-changing tools.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
No freshman in college football faces more scrutiny than Underwood, who arrived in Ann Arbor as the highest-ranked player in the class and signed a multi-million dollar NIL deal after a lengthy pursuit by his hometown Wolverines. Underwood’s spring was more solid than exceptional, and he went 12-of-26 for 187 yards in the spring game, which included an 88-yard touchdown, but also a pair of sacks and several overthrows. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore hasn’t named a starter and has been consistent that Underwood is battling with Jadyn Davis, Jake Garcia, and Mikey Keene for the role, but Michigan’s offense has its highest ceiling with Underwood at the helm. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Underwood combines raw speed, clean footwork in the pocket and natural arm strength. The ball jumps out of his hand and he’s adept at keeping plays alive on the run to move the chains. It might require some patience — which isn’t easy in Ann Arbor — but Underwood has the ceiling of a dominant, Heisman Trophy-contending signal caller.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon
Moore arrived in Eugene as the highest-graded high school receiver ESPN has evaluated since 2020, then dazzled Oregon teammates and coaches alike during the Ducks’ spring practices. Moore won the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game MVP and totaled more than 4,000 receiving yards at famed Duncanville High School in Texas. He’s also a decorated track star, and his blazing speed and savvy route-running ability should find a home in Oregon’s offense on Day 1. Moore’s offseason work has only helped solidify the high expectations. He could quickly become a reliable option for new starting QB Dante Moore, and his role in the offense only becomes more important with Evan Stewart set to miss at least a significant portion of the season with a knee injury. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Cal | Top 100 rank: 4
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: Mendoza was an incredible find for Cal, an under-the-radar three-star out of Miami who was committed to Yale until the Bears extended a late offer. He developed into one of the best young QBs in the country after taking over as Cal’s starter for their final eight games in 2023. As a sophomore, he was the ACC’s third-leading passer with 3,004 passing yards and raised his completion percentage to 69% (second in the ACC) while scoring 18 total touchdowns with just six interceptions over 11 games. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 41 sacks last season but overcame inconsistent protection to have a really productive year with strong performances against Miami and Auburn and a 98-yard game-winning drive to beat rival Stanford. Mendoza is viewed as one of the most promising QBs in the country by several personnel departments. — Olson
Scout’s take: Mendoza is one of the most undervalued players at the position in college football. He’s 6-5, a great athlete and is tough as nails. He was sacked a lot and kept getting back up. Mendoza can make all of the throws and is a sneaky, crafty athlete. — Luginbill
What he brings to Indiana: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti values production over potential when it comes to recruiting the transfer portal. He’s getting plenty of both with Mendoza as his successor to Kurtis Rourke. Mendoza is looking to take his game to another level in the Big Ten and help make the Hoosiers a contender again in Year 2 under Cignetti. — Olson
Transferring from: Tennessee | Top 100 rank: 5
HT: 6-6 | WT: 220 | Class: Redshirt freshman
Background: Well, this was a stunner. While there were rumors of discontent in late December at the winter portal deadline, it was still shocking that Iamaleava left a College Football Playoff team and hit the open market during the spring in search of a better deal than the one he had with the Vols. Tennessee invested a ton of money in Iamaleava and even successfully fought off an attempted NCAA investigation into the seven-figure agreement he struck with the Vols as a five-star high school recruit. He had an awful lot of hype to live up to as a redshirt freshman starter in 2024 and put together a solid year, throwing for 2,616 yards, completing 64% of his passes with 22 total touchdowns and nine turnovers while leading the Vols to 10 wins. Iamaleava closed out the season with a rough CFP performance, completing 14 of 31 passes for 104 yards in a 42-17 first-round loss to eventual national champ Ohio State, and still has plenty of room to grow. But it is exceptionally rare that a QB of his caliber becomes available in the spring. Iamaleava is looking to keep progressing and play up to his first-round potential. — Olson
Scout’s take: There is no debating that Iamaleava is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in college football. He was highly coveted out of high school because of his stature, arm strength and athletic ability. During his one season as a starter, he showed flashes of brilliance but also mediocrity. He threw 19 touchdowns, but four of the nine touchdowns in SEC play came against Vanderbilt and seven came against Chattanooga and UTEP. Consistency is where he has to improve. He has the arm strength and overall talent to be a terrific vertical deep ball passer, but he has been wildly inconsistent in terms of accuracy in that regard. There are still tools here, but he will likely be playing on a team that is less talented than the one he just left. Meaning: He’s going to have to be better than he has ever been. — Luginbill
What he brings to UCLA: This ordeal might have played out perfectly for the Bruins. They’re getting a potential top-10 quarterback on a reduced contract who will generate a lot of attention for this program entering coach DeShaun Foster’s second year. Iamaleava’s arrival will cost them App State transfer QB Joey Aguilar, who reentered the portal after going through spring practice with the Bruins and landed at Tennessee. The challenge going forward for Iamaleava is learning OC Tino Sunseri’s system and winning over his new teammates this summer, but he’ll certainly be motivated after his split with the Vols. — Olson
Transferring from: Nevada | Top 100 rank: 7
HT: 6-8 | WT: 309 | Class: Redshirt junior
Background: The massive pass protector was a three-year starter for the Wolf Pack primarily at left tackle and brings invaluable experience with more than 2,300 career snaps. He did not surrender a sack during his junior season and picked up honorable mention All-Mountain West recognition. World is viewed as a potential first-round draft pick by NFL scouts entering his final season of eligibility and is making the move up to the Power 4 to prove he merits that praise. — Olson
Scout’s take: World is a huge presence with very good pass pro skills at left tackle. He has added 42 pounds since high school and retained his initial quickness and flexibility. World does a terrific job riding defenders past the pocket with his length and mobility. He plays balanced with good feet and shows his basketball background mirroring defenders in his set. He’s not as effective versus the run. World’s pad level can get high, but he’s still very productive at washing defenders down to open run lanes. — Tucker
What he brings to Oregon: Offensive tackle was one of the critical portal needs for the Ducks. Ajani Cornelius graduating and Josh Conerly Jr. potentially going pro made adding starter-caliber tackles a priority for Oregon, and it was able to hold off Texas A&M and Nebraska in this battle. A one-year addition makes sense to help give the Ducks’ young big men more time to develop. — Olson
Numbers to know
4: The number of seasons it has been since defending national champion Ohio State won the Big Ten title, the Buckeyes’ longest drought since a six-year stretch from 1987 to 1992.
8: The number of Big Ten quarterbacks who were in the top 25 of the ESPN300 recruit rankings at some point in their high school careers, the most of any conference. Those QBs are Michigan’s Bryce Underwood (No. 1 in 2025), Oregon’s Dante Moore (No. 2 in 2023), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (No. 9 in 2024), Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair (No. 10 in 2025), Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola (No. 11 in 2024), USC’s Sam Huard (No. 16 in 2021), UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava (No. 23 in 2023) and Michigan’s Jake Garcia (No. 24 in 2021).
+200: Ohio State’s odds of winning the Big Ten championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for the Big Ten favorite in at least 15 years. Penn State is the second choice at +225. — ESPN Research
Power rankings
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Should Penn State be the No. 1-ranked team in the country?
Heather Dinich joins “Get Up” to share why she believes Penn State should be the top-ranked team going into the new college football season.
If not this year, then when for the Nittany Lions? As other Big Ten powers sift through QB questions, Penn State features three-year starter Drew Allar, who has the makeup to be a first-round pick next spring. Throw in a dominant running game spearheaded by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a talented defense now led by veteran coordinator Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions have the pieces to win the Big Ten — and even the national title.
The defending national champions lost a record-tying 14 players to the NFL and must fill significant holes at quarterback and along both the offensive and defensive lines. But Ohio State also has arguably the nation’s best two players in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, other standouts such as wide receiver Carnell Tate and linebacker Sonny Styles, and notable transfers such as tight end Max Klare (Purdue). Never count out the Buckeyes.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dillion Gabriel, one of the most prolific QBs in recent college football history, is gone, leaving tantalizing former five-star recruit Dante Moore in charge of the Ducks’ offense. A season-ending knee injury to star wide receiver Evan Stewart stings. But Oregon still has enough on either side of the ball to defend its Big Ten title.
After winning 10 games for the first time since the Big Ten championship season of 2001, Illinois has its sights on the team’s first CFP appearance. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and outside linebacker Gabe Jacas are part of an impressive returning group that must navigate tricky September trips to Duke and Indiana before a home showdown with Ohio State on Oct. 11.
All eyes will be on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has already been turning heads in Ann Arbor with his work ethic and dual-threat abilities. The Wolverines have the running game and figure to be stout defensively once again. If Underwood can supercharge the passing attack, the Wolverines could be back in contention for a playoff spot.
How will Coach Cig (Curt Cignetti) follow a historic debut that featured a team-record 11 wins and a once unthinkable CFP appearance? Indiana retained All-Big Ten players on both sides of the ball, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen in the portal. The key for IU will be better line-of-scrimmage play in its biggest games, as the schedule doesn’t look nearly as favorable.
7. The Hawkeyes are banking that transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who won an FCS national title, can jumpstart a perennially moribund Iowa offense. Iowa’s offensive line, led by standout center Logan Jones and tackle Gennings Dunker, should be elite. If the defensive-minded Hawkeyes can finally find a way to put up points, they could be dangerous.
After reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016, Nebraska is targeting much bigger goals under third-year coach Matt Rhule. The Huskers have a favorable schedule with no true road games until Oct. 11 and no Ohio State or Oregon. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has had a full offseason to develop under playcaller Dana Holgorsen.
9. USC Trojans
The Trojans lost five games by one score last season, tied for the most in the FBS. Playing from ahead will be critical for the Trojans, who trailed in 11 of their 13 games in 2024. The defense under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn took a step forward last season, but the Trojans need more improvement — they still allowed 5.83 yards per play (15th in the Big Ten).
Could Minnesota be a wild-card CFP contender? “This isn’t a pipe dream,” coach P.J. Fleck told ESPN, pointing to a record in one-score games that, if improved, could elevate the team’s outlook. Minnesota has a solid defense, a potential two-way star in Koi Perich and will lean on first-year starting quarterback Drake Lindsey for a spark.
The Huskies are excited about the potential of sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr., who passed for 374 yards and totaled five touchdowns in Washington’s bowl loss to Louisville. If Williams builds off that performance, the Huskies could surprise offensively, with 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman flanking him in the backfield.
12. After a tough first year and a relatively quiet offseason, Michigan State could creep up on teams during coach Jonathan Smith’s second year. The Spartans made some key portal additions at offensive line and wide receiver to help second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Areas to improve include takeaways and better play on the road, where MSU was 1-4 in 2024.
13. Athan Kaliakmanis is back after becoming the first Rutgers QB since 2015 to pass for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Defensively, the pass rush could be a strength with the arrivals of transfers Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio), who were both all-conference performers. Rutgers ranked just 84th nationally with only 22 total sacks last season.
14. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have gone all-in on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Tennessee transfer whose return home could signal a shift in how UCLA will operate under coach DeShaun Foster. If Iamaleava meets expectations and a defense with many new players and coaches shines, UCLA could rise in these rankings after a season where it had wins against Iowa and Nebraska.
15. Injuries robbed any chance Wisconsin had of fielding a viable offense in 2024, as the Badgers ranked 102nd nationally in passing (197 yards per game) on the way to losing their final five games. The onus is now on transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) and new coordinator Jeff Grimes to turn that around.
16. After bottoming out on offense in 2024, Northwestern had its most successful winter transfer portal haul, which included quarterback Preston Stone (SMU), wide receiver Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State) and several linemen. The Wildcats face a huge opener at Tulane and several tricky Big Ten road contests, but bowl eligibility should be within sight.
Coach Mike Locksley recently admitted he lost the locker room in 2024 over which players to pay, as the Terrapins stumbled to a 1-8 Big Ten record. Maryland doesn’t have much coming back offensively, either, though keeping four-star QB Malik Washington in state has given the Terrapins an intriguing player to rebuild around. The true freshman is battling UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and redshirt freshman Khristian Martin for the starting QB job.
18. Barry Odom is back in the Power 4 following an impressive run at UNLV. He takes over a Purdue team with almost an entirely new roster and a schedule that includes Notre Dame and Ohio State. Moderate improvement is the goal for Odom, whose track record on defense and with personnel suggests better days are ahead. — Rittenberg, Trotter
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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