Can UNC quarterback Max Johnson keep his dream alive?
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Andrea Adelson
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Max Johnson seethed as he stared at the clock on the wall in his hospital room. He could not move his right leg, bandaged from hip to foot after surgery to fix a broken femur. He smelled like days-old sweat. Though his foot felt numb, the pain up and down his leg sometimes brought him to tears.
He always had been a guy who relied on his faith, but this injury was testing him. Johnson had transferred to North Carolina for what he thought would be a fifth and final college season. He’d hoped for a relatively straightforward time in Chapel Hill: a solid year that would lead him seamlessly into the NFL, just like Drake Maye and Sam Howell — the quarterbacks who preceded him at UNC.
Instead, three quarters into the opener at Minnesota in 2024, Johnson had been carted off the field while he held his bones in place. He could not get past all the questions swirling in his head as he listened to the second hand on the clock tick.
Why me?
Tick.
Why now?
Tick.
What next?
Tick.
Every second in that bed meant no football, and no football meant no NFL, the only dream he’d ever had. Even as he laid there, having suffered an injury on the football field most commonly seen after high-speed car wrecks, the draft was a first-level concern. That was nothing new. Max’s dad, former NFL quarterback Brad Johnson, remembers driving a young Max and two friends when they started talking about what they wanted to be as grown-ups.
Max turned to his friends and said, “I’m No. 14. I’m going to be like my dad.”
So, despite the anger, frustration and disappointment, despite the months of excruciating surgeries and rehab ahead of him, he knew, in that hospital bed, that his dreams had not changed. He was no quitter.
NEVER QUITTING IS part of the Johnson family mythology. Brad began his college career as a third-string quarterback at Florida State before working his way up the depth chart to start. The Vikings drafted him in the ninth round in 1992. Again, he was buried on the depth chart. But he played 17 seasons in the NFL and won a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay. There is a photo from the postgame celebration: Johnson has his back to the camera, holding his 18-month-old son. Max looks into the camera, a slight smile forming, as a crowd envelops them.
Everybody in the family is athletic and competitive. Nikki Johnson, Max’s mom, played volleyball at South Florida and set school records for kills, digs and hitting percentage. Her sister also played volleyball, and her brother, Mark Richt, played quarterback at Miami before eventually coaching at Georgia and Miami.
Max has always held onto hope. Brad tells a story to that point. Max was in sixth grade; Brad was his coach. They were down 16 points with 12 seconds to go. Brad was ready to run out the clock, but Max would not have it.
“I swear he yelled at me because the game wasn’t over,” Brad says. “He’s that kid that believes the game is not over until the clock hits double zero.”
Max grew into an elite quarterback prospect in the class of 2020, signing with LSU out of high school. He played in six games as a true freshman and made two starts, then started all 12 games in 2021. But then-coach Ed Orgeron was fired, and Johnson transferred to Texas A&M to play for then-coach Jimbo Fisher. But multiple injuries marred his two seasons with the Aggies, and Fisher was fired there, too, leaving Johnson with another decision after the 2023 season. North Carolina under then-coach Mack Brown seemed the best choice for him to get to the NFL.
“I think it was really big for me to watch Sam and Drake over the last few years under Coach Brown light it up, make plays with their legs, and I feel like that could do that,” Max Johnson says. “I wanted to play one year and go pro. That was my plan.
“Then the injury happened.”
THIRD-AND-10 FROM THE North Carolina 33, late third quarter. North Carolina trails Minnesota 14-10. Johnson drops back to throw a backside curl route. As he releases the ball, Minnesota cornerback Justin Walley hits him on a blitz and starts to take him down to the ground. As Johnson begins to land awkwardly on his right leg, pinned under Walley, Darnell Jefferies hits him high.
Johnson says he remembers being on the ground, staring at the dark night sky. He felt indescribable pain. It was hard to breathe. Then and there, he knew his season was over. He said he believed he had torn a knee ligament.
Frustration and anger set in. Trainers asked if he could get up. Johnson said no. When they picked him up to assist him off the field, Johnson felt his femur shift out of place and his foot dangle. He knew then his leg was broken.
Johnson made it to the sideline, but the pain was too intense to make it to the locker room. The cart came out, and all Johnson remembers is the pain. Teammates came over to give him words of encouragement. His brother, Jake, a tight end on the team, told Max he loved him.
As he made his way off the field, Johnson thought about giving a thumbs-up to show he was OK. But he was not OK. Brad and Nikki, watching from the stands, had no idea how badly Max was hurt. But they knew something was terribly wrong when the cart came out and they began to make their way down to the tunnel to find him.
Trainers tried to put on an air cast, but the pain was too intense. They gave Johnson morphine, but he still felt pain every time the broken bone shifted inside his leg, a sensation Johnson described as “flopping back and forth.” The ride to the hospital was horrible, every bump more painful than the last.
Once he arrived, he was placed on a hospital bed. He couldn’t help but ask for the score of the game. Backup Conner Harrell had led North Carolina to a 19-17 victory.
The doctors told Johnson, still in his football gear, that they needed to take him back for an X-ray. They cut off his uniform, pads and all. Johnson sat there in his underwear, sweaty and bloody, crying, in a daze.
The X-ray confirmed the broken leg. He also had to hold his bones in place during that process. You can see his right hand in the image, holding just underneath the bone.
By this time, his parents had arrived at the hospital from the game. UNC trainer David Mincberg was there as well. Jake also asked to go to the hospital, but his parents told him it would be best to go back with the team to Chapel Hill.
Because it was so late in the evening, Johnson would have to wait until morning for surgery. To help keep the bone in place through the night, Johnson had a hole drilled through his tibia, where doctors inserted a string and attached a five-pound weight, which hung off the side of the bed. Max’s parents and Mincberg slept in chairs in his room, refusing to leave him alone.
Dr. David Templeman, who performed the surgery at Hennepin County Medical Center, said he had never seen an in-game injury like that to an athlete. During surgery, Templeman inserted a metal rod that ran from Johnson’s hip to his knee to stabilize the injury.
After the surgery, Johnson realized his leg felt numb and started to panic. Doctors came in and started touching his feet. Johnson saw their demeanors shift from mild concern to outright worry. The initial operation had caused pressure to build up in his leg, a problem that sometimes occurs after surgery. Johnson feared amputation was a possibility, but Templeman says his team was able to react quickly enough to avoid that scenario.
To ease the pressure that had built up, doctors placed a wound vacuum in Johnson’s leg to help reduce swelling. Johnson would undergo other surgeries — he’d have five in total — to close the wound once the pressure eased. But he also had to get up and start walking to not only avoid blood clots but to start restoring the function of his leg.
Johnson initially needed multiple people to help him out of bed. His mom held the vacuum attached to his leg while Johnson held onto a walker. He took 12 steps, turned around and took 12 steps back.
“I was absolutely gassed. The most tired I’ve ever been in my life,” he said.
Johnson had already lost weight, and his hemoglobin levels had deteriorated so much that he needed a blood transfusion. Templeman told him it could take months to a year for full feeling to return in his foot. Johnson hated it when anyone touched his feet, but that was about to change.
“I’m not kidding you. I must have touched that kid’s foot 1,000 times,” Nikki Johnson said. “I know this is not scientific, but I will stick by this: Touching it and moving it and rubbing it helped those nerves regenerate. I believe there was some supernatural healing there. Maybe that’s just what I want to believe. But the doctors were amazed that his feeling and function came back so quickly.”
Max stayed in the hospital nine days. Despite the ordeal, the Johnsons asked repeatedly whether he could play football again. Templeman said, “Hopefully.” The Johnsons said they were given a recovery timeline of six months to a year.
“That’s all we needed to hear,” Nikki said.
Johnson knew injuries like this were exceedingly rare in football players, and only a handful had ever come back to play. So, obviously, he gave himself just six months to make it back.
AFTER LEAVING THE hospital, Johnson stayed in Minneapolis until doctors cleared him for air travel back to Chapel Hill. The family stayed with Brad’s friends from his time with the Vikings.
Max had yet to shower since the injury. But the shower was up the stairs, and he could not bend his bandaged leg. Max broke into a cold sweat debating whether to attempt the stairs or not. He begged his parents to help him. They relented.
He was able to make it up four steps before taking a break. Then he went up another four steps before stopping for another break. It went like this until he made it to the top … an hour and a half later. Max was wiped out.
When he finally got into the shower, he sat in a chair, his leg wrapped and sticking out the open shower door. He sat for 15 minutes, water finally washing him clean. “One of the best feelings in my life,” he says.
When he was done, he realized he now had to make his way down the stairs. It was easier to get down but still took time and an enormous amount of effort. Max needed help to do everything, from using the restroom to getting dressed and undressed every day. He felt like a child again.
Mincberg stayed the entire time, often doing shopping runs to stock up on clothes, food and other necessities for the four of them. His parents took care of him day after day, without hesitation. “They became my best friends,” Max says.
The following Saturday, he put on the UNC game against Charlotte and tried to figure out the offensive game plan just to keep his mind occupied. On Sept. 11, Johnson saw Templeman for a follow-up appointment and was cleared to return home. UNC sent a charter plane to bring Johnson, his parents and Mincberg back to Chapel Hill.
MAX GOT BACK to the apartment he shared with Jake. His parents rented one in Chapel Hill to continue to help. Nikki, Brad and Jake did whatever Max needed — from cooking to cleaning to helping him get from one appointment to the next.
Max could not drive, nor could he attend class in person because he was unable to sit in chairs. He also remained away from the team. The first few weeks home were a slog. He had trouble sleeping and would get about only two hours at a time. Sometimes he would stay awake all night.
He remembers one day he wanted to try to work out in the gym in his apartment complex, just to feel active again. He used his crutches to make it there. He picked up seven-pound weights and did curls to an overhead shoulder press. After 15 minutes, he was exhausted. It took him 25 minutes to get back to his apartment.
He still felt angry and frustrated, unable to play the sport that made him feel complete. The doubts about his future were there constantly. Max relishes his ability to run, because most people assume he’s slow. He ran a 4.6 in the 40-yard dash. Would he ever gain back that speed? And even if he did, it was a near certainty he would face another quarterback competition, just as he had every other year he spent in college.
In late September, he took out his journal and started writing, letting go of his anger. He realized the injury gave him time to slow down, rethink his values and remember why he plays. He grew stronger in his faith and his conviction he would play again.
The mindset shift did not lessen the reality of his situation. Even if Max made it all the way back to the football field, there still might not be an NFL future. He pressed on nonetheless.
Eventually, he was able to go to one team meeting a week, where he had a special chair that allowed him to sit. He used FaceTime whenever he could. In October, Brad drove Max to one of his rehab appointments. He waited in the car for Max to finish and fell asleep, but then awoke to a knock on the window.
“Dad! I can walk!”
Brad got out of the car. Max took eight steps without his crutches. They cried.
Part of his initial rehab was simply focusing on bending his leg and perfecting his walking form. Max would stare at himself in the mirror, his right leg thinned out compared to his left. He had to work on making sure he was not putting too much pressure on his left leg to compensate for the injury to his right.
The bone was still broken, so he felt constant pain. But Johnson says to return to football form, he could not wait for the bone to heal completely.
“If you don’t walk on it in a certain amount of time, then the bone will never really heal back to where you want it to be,” Johnson says.
Eventually, Johnson started walking on an underwater treadmill. Around Thanksgiving, he transitioned from walking to slowly running on the same machine. There would be more challenges ahead. Brown was fired as coach before the final game of the regular season. Johnson faced the prospect of playing for a fourth head coach and sixth offensive coordinator, without knowing whether he would be healthy enough to compete for a starting job in 2025. Uncertainty filled the first weeks of December.
But Johnson remained adamant he wanted to play a sixth season, and that he wanted to stay at North Carolina.
IF YOU HAD told Max Johnson in high school that he would play for three coaches who won a national championship and one who won six Super Bowls, there is no way he would have believed you.
Transferring for a third time after the coaching change never entered his mind. The thought of playing for the coach who was with Tom Brady in New England excited Johnson. The two had an honest conversation about where Johnson stood after Belichick arrived on campus. Asked why he decided to give Johnson a chance, Belichick says simply, “Why not?”
The truth is, Belichick owes Johnson nothing. Coaches taking over programs flip rosters to fit their needs. The current Tar Heels roster features more than 40 transfers and 17 true freshmen, including ESPN300 quarterback Bryce Baker. Though Johnson was injured, he had been playing college ball for longer than every other player in the quarterbacks room and could provide valuable knowledge and steady leadership as he worked to return.
The rehab was going slower than Johnson had hoped. Initially, he wanted to be ready in time for spring football in March. But he was not fully healed and could not run and cut the way he needed to.
North Carolina had a decision to make once spring practice wrapped in April. Given the uncertainty around Johnson and the departure of quarterback Ryan Browne to Purdue, North Carolina signed quarterback Gio Lopez from South Alabama. Johnson says he understood.
“I get it. You have to go in the portal,” Johnson says. “I didn’t know if I was going to be ready. They didn’t know. They asked me those questions. I’m telling them I’m going to be ready, because I know myself. But it’s tough from their point of view because it’s like, ‘OK, we’ve got to make a business decision.'”
Johnson welcomed Lopez without reservation, helping him get up to speed with the offense.
“I transfer in, we’re both competing for the spot, and people paint this narrative like they must not like each other. Me and Max are actually great friends,” Lopez said. “He’s been super helpful with the offense. There’s no second agenda with him, where he’s trying to throw me off. He’s been great.”
Johnson worked every day, three hours a day, not only with his physical therapy but other forms of rehab, from scar tissue massage to electric stimulation.
“He never took a day off,” Jake says. “I know having a career in the NFL is his dream, and he’s not going to let [anything] stop him.”
Finally, several weeks after spring practice ended, Max was able to fully drop back with no pain. Max says that moment was “probably one of the best feelings I’ve ever felt.”
Johnson says his leg is fully healed and he is “ready to roll” for fall camp. He says he did every run and every lift with the team this summer and feels as good as he did last year. Templeman and the staff at the hospital have been amazed by his progress.
“Out of all the people I’ve taken care of in my career, he’s probably in the 100th percentile for [getting] healthy,” Templeman said. “It’s exceptional even within the realm of being an athlete.”
Now that fall camp has started, Johnson says the coaching staff told him he would be given a fair shot to win the starting job. Whether he does remains to be seen as the season opener against TCU on Labor Day inches closer.
“It’s not us picking them, it’ll be that player earning it — then we’ll decide on that,” Belichick said the day fall practice began. “If it’s clear-cut, then that player will be the player. If it’s not clear-cut, maybe the competition will continue into the early part of the season.”
Asked what he hopes for this season, Johnson says, “I want to play.”
MAX STILL KEEPS the white No. 14 Carolina jersey he wore in the opener last year, cut down the middle, as a reminder not only of how far he has come, but how much putting that jersey on means to him. There might be those who wonder why he would put himself through the agony of nearly a year of rehab without any guarantee that he would play again. Johnson has a quick retort: Nothing in life is guaranteed, so why not spend each day doing what you love?
“When it’s in you and something that you enjoy, you can’t listen to the noise of what someone else thinks,” Brad says. “It has to be your passion, your dream. You have to look back on your story and have no regrets. The chance for him to have the ball in his hands, the feeling of calling the play in the huddle, the feeling of the game, it matters.”
For now, Max is not listed among the quarterbacks to watch for the 2026 NFL draft. ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid said there’s a “wait-and-see approach,” not only because of the injury but because it’s not known yet how much he will play.
But Max sees his dad as the perfect example — someone who overcame his own roller-coaster college career to not only make it in the NFL but persevere and find a way to win at the highest level.
“I want to play football,” Max says. “That’s what I want to do. I’ll never give up.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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— EASPORTSCollege (@EASPORTSCollege) June 30, 2025
ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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