Since last year’s general election, Sir Mel Stride has become a familiar face for those of us who like our politics.
During the campaign, he regularly found himself on breakfast TV and radio. So much so, Sir Mel was referred to as the “minister for the morning round” by some of our industry colleagues.
By our count, he was on Sky News Breakfast at least 10 times during the campaign’s 43 days.
Following the election, and losing the Conservative leadership race to Kemi Badenoch, Sir Mel now puts questions to Rachel Reeves as shadow chancellor.
Still seen as a safe pair of hands, Sir Mel’s penchant for doing the “morning round” hasn’t slowed down either, making regular appearances on breakfast TV and radio.
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Luckily, he found some time between all that to sit down for an interview with Sky’s Beth Rigby for the Electoral Dysfunction podcast. He spoke about his transition to Opposition, taking on Reform, and the most controversial topic in Westminster – lunch.
Here’s what we learned:
1. Opposition isn’t ‘awful’ – but it is like ‘warfare’
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28:31
‘I think people will see through Reform’s populism’
Before the election, Sir Mel served as work and pensions secretary. Shifting to the Opposition was not “awful”, despite losing the muscle of the civil service.
“But it is like guerrilla warfare,” he said.
“You suddenly lose all the trappings of government. Somebody once said to me, ‘when you get in the back of a car and you sit down and it doesn’t go anywhere, that’s when you realise you’re no longer a minister’.
“So it is that sort of sense of being looked after that disappears.”
There’s also a smaller team of Conservatives in the Commons. Before the election, Rishi Sunak had 343 MPs behind him.
Ms Badenoch currently only has 119.
“When you’re down to 120 MPs – and some set piece events, there might be only a fraction of those people there – it’s much quieter.
“What I actually often do is I can be quite provocative of the Opposition to get them going, because then at least you get something to feed off. Sometimes I do that to, just get the energy in the chamber.”
2. Being at the despatch box on big days can be ‘tricky’ – but he has a ‘secret’
You may remember Sir Mel’s lively response to Rachel Reeves’s spring statement in March. He revealed that, on those big political days, he isn’t told what the chancellor will say until about half an hour before it’s said in the Commons.
“It does give you and your team literally 10 or 15 minutes to… work out what the main things are,” he said.
However, he tells Electoral Dysfunction that you do have to be able to think on your feet in that scenario.
He said: “You are thinking about ‘what are the attack lines I’m going to use?’… and amend what you’re going to do.”
He added that he doesn’t get nervous. That might have to do with Sir Mel having been president of the Oxford Union debating society “many, many years ago”.
“Now the secret’s out. The secret is out Beth, and you’re the first to have gleaned that secret from me,” he said.
To be fair, it is on his website.
3. He’s not a huge fan of Reform
Image: Nigel Farage
As the Conservatives battle with Reform for the right, Sir Mel didn’t have many positive words for Nigel Farage’s party.
“With Reform… these are populists, who peddle fantasy economics,” he said.
“‘Take everybody out of income tax up to £20,000 costs about £80bn according to the IFS [Institute For Fiscal Studies].”
The IFS has said it needed “more detail” to exactly cost Reform’s proposal, but “it could easily be in the range of £50 to £80bn a year”.
“I think ultimately,” Sir Mel says, “people will see through a lot of the populism that Reform stands for.”
He added that he believed that Reform’s 2024 manifesto, was, economically, “a work of fiction”.
“I mean, it’s quite dangerous, actually. I think if they’d been elected… the economy would have gone into a very bad place,” he said.
4. His ideal lunch? A cheese and ham toastie
Image: Ms Badenoch and Sir Mel see eye-to-eye on many things – lunch isn’t one of them. Pic: PA
Sir Mel also addressed the most pressing issue of all – lunch.
If you’re unaware, this has proven a controversial subject in Westminster. Ms Badenoch told The Spectator in December she was “not a sandwich person… lunch is for wimps”.
In March, however, Ms Reeves gave a rebuttal to Electoral Dysfunction, revealing she whips up a cheddar sandwich in 11 Downing Street when she can.
Sir Mel falls more in line with his opposite number than his leader.
“I’ve always liked a sandwich, particularly a toasted sandwich,” he said.
“I’d go with the Cadillac, the Rolls Royce of sandwiches, a ham and cheese.”
Sir Mel has previously, however, been partial to some more peculiar fillings.
“Do you remember those Breville toastie makers? When I went to university, I had one of those, or whatever the equivalent was,” he said.
“You could put baked beans in, eggs in, and all sorts of things.
“It was fantastic.”
To each, their own.
Electoral Dysfunction unites political powerhouses Beth Rigby, Ruth Davidson, and Harriet Harman to cut through the spin, and explain to you what’s really going on in Westminster and beyond.
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Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.
“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.
Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.
She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.
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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT
Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.
Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.
Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”
Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.
Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.
The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.
Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.
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9:43
The big issues facing the UK economy
‘I won’t duck challenges’
In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.
“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.
“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”
She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.
“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.
“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”
Image: Pic: PA
Blame it on the B word?
Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.
This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.
The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.
“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.
“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”
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