Simulating the season using EA Sports College Football 26
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
A week into the 2025 MLB season, we created our annual MLB Rank list of the top 100 players in baseball to answer the question: Who will be the best player in 2025?
More than four months later, we asked 17 ESPN MLB experts to give their ranking of the top 50 players in the sport this season. We averaged those lists to create our first MLB Rank in-season update — giving us a chance not only to take a look at who has excelled this season, but also see what we got right (and wrong) on our initial top-100 player ranking.
Our list features the MVPs and Cy Young Award winners you’d expect, as well as the budding young megastars who have broken out this season and could dominate MLB for many years. However, because we asked voters to rank players based on their overall impact on the 2025 season — combining what they’ve done with what we expect them to do the rest of the way — you won’t see notable names such as Mookie Betts, Yordan Alvarez or Ronald Acuña Jr. on this list.
So, who’s No. 1? Where does the best player on your team rank? And how different does this top 50 look compared with our top 100 at the beginning of the season? To go with our updated ranking, 10 of our voters also broke down what each player has done and what to expect over the final months of the season.
More: Snubs, surprises and more
Jump to team’s top-ranked player:
American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | MIN
NYY | SEA | TEX | TOR
(No top 50 players: CHW, LAA, TB)
National League
ARI | CHC | CIN | LAD
MIA | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | WSH
(No top 50 players: ATL, COL, MIL, STL)
What he has done so far: Judge has followed his historic 2024 season with another historically productive campaign that has him on a path toward his second straight American League MVP and third in four seasons. The Yankees captain, despite a relative “slump” since the beginning of June, leads the majors in wRC+ and batting average by comfortable margins, and is within striking distance in home runs and RBIs as he seeks to become the AL’s second Triple Crown winner since 1967. He’s still the best hitter in the world.
What to expect from here: The Yankees go as Judge goes, and a recent flexor strain produced a scare for a club suddenly fighting for a playoff spot. Judge returned after the minimum 10 days on the injured list, but he’s limited to DH for the time being. While the flexor strain impacts his throwing far more than his hitting, it also affects his ability to grip a bat. He should win AL MVP as long as he stays on the field, but that’s not a guarantee for the remainder of the season. — Jorge Castillo
What he has done so far: Two-way Ohtani has (almost) been fully unlocked. His second year with the Dodgers has seen him put together another dominant offensive season, the type that might merit the National League MVP Award. But now he’s shining on the mound, too. The Dodgers took their time with Ohtani’s pitching progression, and have him stretched out to four innings at the moment. He’s coming off a second repair of his ulnar collateral ligament, and yet he is as effective now as ever.
What to expect from here: The expectation is that Ohtani will start games in October. The question facing the Dodgers is how much they stretch him out. They want his arm, of course, but they’re also conscious about taxing him to where it affects his offense — or worse, leads to another injury. We’ve already seen Ohtani take a major step back with stolen bases. That was expected. But for as good as Ohtani can be — and already is — as a pitcher, he’s even more important as a catalyst atop the Dodgers’ lineup. So, they’ll tread carefully. — Alden Gonzalez
What he has done so far: After winning the Cy Young Award last season, Skubal has gotten better in 2025: higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, lower batting average allowed and pitching slightly deeper into games. His SO-BB% is one of the highest of all time. He doesn’t have the AL Cy Young locked up, given the strong competition, but the consensus view is he’s the top starter in the majors.
What to expect from here: With Cleveland drawing closer in the division, it will be interesting to see if the Tigers push Skubal a little harder. He has made six starts on four days of rest this season, but since the All-Star break, he has gone eight days, five days, six days and five days between starts. You want to keep him strong for the postseason, but you need to get there first. — David Schoenfield
What he has done so far: Break records. Become the physical and spiritual leader of an ascendant Mariners team. Play all but three of the Mariners’ 119 games, a seeming impossibility for a modern catcher. Bang a major-league-leading 45 home runs, fitting for a Home Run Derby champion. The defense is still elite, too: He has one of the five most dangerous arms and is a top-10 framer. More impressive than all the numbers, narrative and MVP talk is that he has gotten a nation of people to refer to him as the Big Dumper with a straight face.
What to expect from here: Other records could fall. Four more home runs and he beats Salvador Perez’s single-season mark for catchers. Another 11 will tie Ken Griffey Jr.’s Mariners record of 56. Perhaps the AL mark of 62 by Judge is out of reach, but it’s impossible to say with the sort of heaters Raleigh has gone on multiple times this season. With the thump that surrounds him in Seattle’s lineup, he doesn’t have quite the same onus to carry the Mariners. But if there’s a big at-bat, there’s only one person they want to take it. — Jeff Passan
What he has done so far: Witt hasn’t been as special as he was in 2024, but he has still been great. Few players can match his elite skill set, from bat speed to foot speed to defensive range and arm strength. If teams had to redraft the majors from scratch, Witt might be the first player off the board. It has all been on full display in 2025.
What to expect from here: A big finish. Witt hasn’t had one of the extended torrid stretches that he has enjoyed the past two seasons, though he has had some hot streaks. Lately, his plate discipline — the one remaining weak spot — has ticked up, which could portend a surge for a player hoping to carry his club back to the playoffs, and one who is uniquely suited for such a project. — Bradford Doolittle
What he has done so far: Continuing the best start to a pitching career MLB has seen in a long time. Arguably ever. Among qualified starters, he throws harder than everyone (98.4 mph average fastball), has the lowest ERA of anyone (1.94), a strikeout rate in the 87th percentile, walks hitters less frequently than three-quarters of his peers and is pretty damn great at everything. This is the most exciting start to a career since Shohei Ohtani.
What to expect from here: More of the same, right? Why would you think any differently? That Skenes is also doing this with the Pirates, receiving 2.9 runs per game, which ranks 118th out of 127 pitchers who have made at least 14 starts, according to Baseball-Reference — only reinforces his dominance when one run can be the difference between a win and a loss. His record is 7-8. No starter has won the National League Cy Young with a record of .500 or below. Will Skenes become the first? — Passan
What he has done so far: Despite some struggles against left-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong is high on the list thanks to a rare combination of power, speed and defense — especially at the all-important position of center field. It’s why he ranks third in baseball in wins above replacement, even though his on-base percentage is just under .300. His ability to hit pitches outside the strike zone for damage was a signature part of his game for most of the first half. And one reason he’s a top-10 player.
What to expect from here: It would be hard for Crow-Armstrong to repeat his first half, when he hit 21 home runs in about nine weeks, so expect great glove work the rest of the way, a bunch of stolen bases and the more occasional home run — at least compared with his previous pace. The good news is he has been more selective at the plate lately, seeing his on-base percentage creep up thanks to laying off some pitches he was swinging at previously. He probably won’t improve that much against lefties before next season, but he’s still dangerous: Seven of his 27 home runs have come against left-handed pitching. — Jesse Rogers
What he has done so far: Ramirez has been his same ol’ MVP-caliber self, though his Guardians might miss the playoffs for the fourth time in the past 10 seasons. He sports the ninth-most WAR (4.9) and is the only hitter to rank among the top 20 in batting average, home runs and stolen bases. Ramirez is a 20/20 player for the seventh consecutive nonshortened season, tied for the fourth-longest streak in history.
What to expect from here: The Guardians have shaved 9½ games off their AL Central standings deficit in the past month and are again in striking distance of a wild-card spot. His veteran leadership plays a huge part in their October prospects (and, with it, his gaining MVP votes). He has a legitimate chance at his first .300 batting average since 2017, as well as a second straight 30/40 season. — Tristan Cockcroft
What he has done so far: One of baseball’s true aces, Wheeler leads the majors in strikeouts, is eighth in ERA and third in WHIP. He remains an NL Cy Young hopeful, though he might have to settle for another second-place finish (he has two already).
What to expect from here: Normally, we would say expect greatness, but Wheeler’s recent struggles — he’s 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA, seven HRs and five HBPs in his past five starts — must concern the Phillies, especially when his slump has come with recent diminished fastball velocity, likely due to shoulder stiffness that pushed his weekend start back a few days. The Phillies boast rotation depth. They might need it in a surprising way. — Eric Karabell
What he has done so far: If Skubal doesn’t win the AL Cy Young Award this year, Crochet will. He has been what the Red Sox had hoped for when they moved aggressively to trade for him last winter. Imagine how different the baseball landscape would look to the Orioles, who had the prospect power to win the Crochet bidding last winter, if they had landed an ace.
What to expect from here: Crochet, three years removed from Tommy John surgery, is just 26 years old and locked into the long-term deal (six years, $170 million) he signed with the Red Sox this past spring. Boston has its No. 1 starter for the foreseeable future. — Buster Olney
What he has done so far: Tucker had about as steady a first half of the season as you’ll find. One minor slump didn’t impact his ability to start his first All-Star Game, and his combination of speed, power and defense has come in handy playing in Wrigley Field, where the weather is ever-changing. Players need to adjust their game, and Tucker found plenty of ways to reach base over the first three months of the season. It’s why he ranks around the top 10 in WAR and why the Cubs are in the playoff hunt.
What to expect from here: Tucker has struggled for most of July and August. He’s fouling balls off that he should be hitting hard and swinging and missing more often than usual. He’s also hitting too many ground balls — though some have been smoked right at the infielder. Tucker is too good for this to continue. Expect a hot finish to his season — and his free agent year. The foul balls are a sign he’s close to breaking out. — Rogers
What he has done so far: Soto’s first season in Queens, as the player with the most lucrative deal in baseball history, has been underwhelming relative to expectations after his slow start.
Though still one of the most productive hitters in the majors, his numbers across the board — batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS+ and wRC+ among them — have regressed from his MVP-level platform campaign with the Yankees in 2024. Still, he should’ve been an All-Star, and nearly every player would gladly take this as a “down” year.
What to expect from here: Soto has historically peaked in the second half with better power production, so the safe bet is a return to elite form down the stretch after a torrid June and average July. The Mets’ offense, sputtering for long stretches this season, could use it as New York looks to hold on to a playoff spot. — Castillo
What he has done so far: Tatis hasn’t reached his offensive heights from before his injury and suspension, but his off-the-charts defensive metrics have helped him to one of the highest WAR totals in the NL (he leads all right fielders with 16 defensive runs saved). He has already drawn a career high in walks, giving him a high OBP, while also cutting down on his strikeouts.
What to expect from here: Tatis stormed out of the gate in April, hitting .345 with eight home runs, but then scuffled in May and June before picking it up again in July, when he hit .308 with a .438 OBP. The Padres don’t hit a lot of home runs, and to secure a playoff position, they might need the power Tatis provided earlier in the season. — Schoenfield
14. Kyle Schwarber, DH, Philadelphia Phillies
What he has done so far: Schwarbombs are once again the norm in Philadelphia as one of the game’s most prolific power hitters of his era already has 42 home runs. Does Schwarber ever hit one that isn’t a no-doubter? And though he strikes out a lot, he also takes his walks. It’s why he can fit anywhere in a lineup. His top-20 ranking in WAR as a designated hitter is impressive. He has been the offensive MVP of the first-place Phillies.
What to expect from here: With his on-base percentage trending toward a career high, Schwarber’s production might be the easiest to predict: more home runs and more walks. If he’s challenged, it’s leaving the park. If not, he’ll jog to first instead of around the bases. The playoffs are when he really shines, as he has done it all throughout his career in every situation. No moment is too big for Schwarber, so expect Schwarbombs to rain down when Philly needs them most. — Rogers
What he has done so far: De La Cruz’s second full season as a major leaguer has been a step forward in nearly every offensive category. He’s getting on base more and striking out significantly less while providing a similar slugging output. He’s stealing fewer bases, but he’s also getting caught less while supplying the highest baserunning value in the sport. The metrics suggest he has regressed defensively at shortstop, but De La Cruz, still just 23 years old, remains on a superstar track for an organization battling for a postseason ticket.
What to expect from here: De La Cruz fell off down the stretch in 2024, his first full major league season, so the final six weeks will be a test. A strong July — he slashed .305/.389/.442 with seven steals in 25 games — suggests 2025 could be different. Perhaps a playoff race will bring out his best. — Castillo
16. Will Smith, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
What he has done so far: Smith was already one of the game’s best catchers, but now, at age 30, he is in the midst of his best offensive season, setting career highs in batting average and on-base percentage while on track to reach 20 home runs for the fourth time in five years. He’s making better swing decisions, but he has also held up strong one year after his numbers cratered in the second half. A big reason is probably the presence of rookie Dalton Rushing, who is allowing Smith to squeeze in more rest days each week.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers haven’t been playing all that great since the start of July. Their lead over San Diego has shrunk because of it, and they have six games against the Padres coming in the next couple of weeks. Expect Smith to play a lot more during the stretch run of the season. With Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and others slumping to varying degrees this year, the Dodgers need Smith’s bat in the middle of their lineup as often as possible. — Gonzalez
What he has done so far: If Machado never played another game, he would have already done enough to be elected into the Hall of Fame: a seven-time All-Star, two Gold Glove Awards, more than 2,000 hits and he’s closing in on 400 homers.
What to expect from here: He just turned 33 years old, so he’s still in the prime of his career, with an adjusted OPS of 135 this season. The Padres got close to reaching the World Series in 2024 and have a shot again this year, and Machado has demonstrated a knack for thriving on the big stage. — Olney
What he has done so far: Carroll is in the conversation for the most dynamic player in baseball. (His MLB-leading 14 triples don’t hurt the case.) He’s good at pretty much everything. He hits for power. He’s the best baserunner in the big leagues. He uses his speed to catch up to everything in the outfield — and, as if he has heard the criticism about his arm, is throwing 3 mph faster this year. Carroll has a touch of that prime Mike Trout ability to acknowledge a weakness and fix it the next season. Bit by bit, Carroll keeps getting better. And considering how good he is, that’s saying something.
What to expect from here: Carroll has evolved. Long respected for his willingness not to chase, he now goes after out-of-zone pitches — and clearly with good results, as his numbers show. His strikeout rate spiked to 21% in the second half last year, when he shook off a bad first half and finished with aplomb, and this year, he’s striking out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances. Carroll is continuously trying to find that balance between patience and aggressiveness at the plate, and when he does — the old Trout skill — watch out. — Passan
What he has done so far: Over the past two seasons, Sanchez’s sinker velocity has spiked 3.2 mph, which has made his slider firmer. It also has enhanced the effectiveness of his changeup, which is now the third-best pitch in the majors in terms of run value, per Baseball Savant. In 2025, he has 11 wins with a 2.36 ERA, good for fourth best in the majors, and a 1.08 WHIP.
What to expect from here: He’s the fourth-best pitcher by WAR over the past two seasons combined, so you can expect him to stay on the current track he’s on — asserting himself as one of the best pitchers in the game when it matters, down the stretch and into the playoffs this fall. — Kiley McDaniel
20. Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
What he has done so far: As well as he is regarded, Marte remains a bit underrated, especially for someone who has continued to be one of baseball’s best all-around hitters even after turning 30 years old. Marte had a career OPS+ of 114 through his age-29 season. Now 31, Marte has been at a 154 OPS+ since reaching an age when middle infielders are supposed to hit their downside. He has been doing it long enough for Arizona that he’s now third on the Diamondbacks’ career WAR leaderboard.
What to expect from here: Marte has to focus on finishing strong. He has had a tough year — he was taunted by a fan about his late mother in Chicago and his home was burglarized during the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to make the playoffs, but Marte has a chance to earn a few down-ballot MVP votes once again. — Doolittle
What he has done so far: Perhaps we should have expected this from a shortstop who won a World Series MVP as a rookie. Peña is a high-caliber defensive shortstop with some of the fastest wheels in the game. He’s hitting like a star this year, too, and even if some of it is driven by the eighth-best average on balls in play (.354) among 201 players with at least 300 plate appearances, who cares? In that same cohort, only 34 players strike out at a lower rate than Peña — and just three have a higher slugging percentage than his .484.
What to expect from here: The BABIP suggests a regression is in store, particularly considering Peña has not hit the ball hard compared with his statistical peers. Even if his season evens out, he is still one of the five best-performing shortstops in baseball. But what if this offensive breakout isn’t an anomaly? What if the combination of consistent contact and barrel-to-ball ability makes for a good hitter? Peña has both right now, and he’s batting 44 points higher than his career average coming into the season. Which version he really is will help determine whether he’s very good or great. — Passan
What he has done so far: In some ways, it has been another frustrating season for J-Rod, as his offensive numbers have, once again, failed to match what he did in his first two seasons in 2022 and ’23. But he has also played a superlative center field, he plays every day, he might still finish with a 30/30 season and he’s about to reach 5.0 WAR for the third time in his career.
What to expect from here: Rodriguez is a renowned second-half hitter (his career OPS in August and September is over .900 compared with .654 in April), and he’s showing signs of heating up once again. The Mariners would love to see him replicate what he did last September, when he hit .328 with 22 RBIs. History says that might happen. — Schoenfield
What he has done so far: Brown has been extremely steady this season, highlighted by his first seven starts, when he pitched six innings or more in each of them. Other than a couple of blips, there hasn’t been much drop-off in his game, as Brown ranks in the top 10 in ERA and strikeouts for the first-place Astros. Batters are hitting just .156 off a fastball that averages nearly 97 mph. He gives up just 6.2 hits per nine innings, best in the league.
What to expect from here: Brown is already off to a good start this month, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t finish strong. He threw 170 innings last season, plus another 5⅔ innings in the postseason, so he’s conditioned for whatever comes next. If he hasn’t replaced Framber Valdez as the Astros’ No.1 pitcher, then he’s no worse than 1-A. The pair gives Houston a lethal 1-2 combo for the postseason, when Brown should be as dominant as he has been all year. Expect an October gem or two from him. — Rogers
What he has done so far: The Blue Jays, once again, failed to land premium free agents last offseason, and there was uncertainty about whether they could lock down their homegrown superstar. They ultimately did, lavishing Guerrero with a 14-year, $500 million extension in early April. And since then, they’ve seen a team shine around him. The Blue Jays have surged to the top of the American League East, and Guerrero has produced like one would expect while at the center of it.
What to expect from here: Last year, Guerrero turned around a lackluster season and finished sixth in MVP voting with a dominant last 4½ months. This year, he has incrementally gotten better each month. Now, with the Blue Jays looking to stave off the Tigers and Astros and others to nail down a first-round bye, they need Guerrero to be at his best. For whatever reason, Guerrero’s production in September is his worst of any month (career .267/.337/.456 slash line). That needs to change this year. — Gonzalez
What he has already done so far: It’s not a given that a team gets high-end production from a player on a megadeal, but that’s what has happened for the Mets with Lindor. He is nearly halfway through that 10-year, $341 million contract he signed in 2022 and remains a preeminent shortstop.
What to expect from here: Lindor is in exceptional condition, and even if there’s a time in the distant future when the Mets want to move him off shortstop, his transition will likely be very smooth. He has missed more than 20 games in a season only once. And soon, he’ll be closing in on 2,000 career hits and 300 career homers. — Olney
What he’s done so far: Buxton has recaptured some of the oomph in his bat that he lost in 2023-24, driving in a career-best 60 runs behind 24 home runs this season while sporting his best hard hit rate (55.3%). But perhaps most importantly, he has remained on the Twins’ active roster for more than 70% of their games. His 4.0 WAR is already tied for his third-best single-season number, and he has 85th percentile-or-better Statcast xwOBA, sprint speed and defensive outs above average.
What to expect from here: After remaining in Minnesota beyond the trade deadline, reportedly by his choice, Buxton is the centerpiece of a gutted Twins roster. He’s on the mend from a rib cartilage injury, and he might set personal bests in home runs and perhaps steal 20-plus bases for the first time since 2017. But with the Twins already looking ahead to 2026, they won’t push him any more than necessary over the last months of the season. — Cockcroft
What he has done so far: Yamamoto took the mound in Game 2 of the World Series last fall, in the wake of a rookie season tarnished by a prolonged stint on the injured list, and dominated the Yankees through 6⅓ innings. That start, Yamamoto later said, gave him confidence about how he could perform in the major leagues. He has followed that with a 2025 campaign in which he is in the running for the NL Cy Young Award, showing why he became coveted enough out of Japan to sign the largest deal by a starting pitcher.
What to expect from here: In a season that has seen them, once again, suffer a litany of injuries to their pitching staff — most notably to fellow frontline starters Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow — the Dodgers have kept Yamamoto’s innings manageable, even though he has taken every turn through the rotation. They hope this not only keeps Yamamoto’s right arm healthy but that it puts him at his best for the stretch run. He’s trending toward being the Dodgers’ Game 1 starter in October. He’s the logical choice. — Gonzalez
28. Framber Valdez, SP, Houston Astros
What he has done so far: The reliable lefty remains a picture of consistency, pacing toward his best season yet in WAR and having won more games than home runs permitted. Valdez is fourth in innings and is one of two pitchers (Nick Lodolo is the other) with more than one complete game (Bob Gibson would mock the current state of pitching).
What to expect from here: The Astros will continue to depend heavily on the top of their rotation, especially Valdez. He has won 10 of 11 decisions, and he boasts a 1.65 ERA in home games. His next outing should come at home this weekend. — Karabell
What he has done so far: The Marlins’ shocking turnaround this season has been largely fueled by Stowers’ emergence as one of the best hitters in baseball.
The 27-year-old outfielder has been consistently elite, peaking with a blistering July in which he compiled a 1.269 OPS with 10 home runs. He made his first All-Star team and should receive down-ballot MVP votes. He’s a cornerstone for a franchise with a bright future. It all happened suddenly, but it looks to be for real.
What to expect from here: Stowers’ underlying numbers strongly suggest this is not a fluke. His Baseball Savant page is filled with red. He ranks in the 97th percentile in barrel rate, 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate, 93rd percentile in xwOBA and 89th percentile in bat speed. He strikes out a bunch — his strikeout and whiff rates are in the 8th and 4th percentiles, respectively — but he hits the ball hard often, and that is a rock-solid formula for steady success. — Castillo
30. Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees
What he has done so far: Fried was dominant through June, posting a 1.92 ERA in 108 innings across 17 starts to pitch himself into the AL Cy Young conversation. It was the ace-level performance the Yankees needed to offset the losses of Gerrit Cole for the season and Luis Gil for the first half. But Fried hasn’t been the same pitcher since the start of July. The All-Star left-hander recorded a 5.54 ERA in five July starts, allowing at least three runs in each outing, and he surrendered four runs over five innings in each of his first two games in August.
What to expect from here: A blister on Fried’s left index finger ended his start against the Cubs on July 12 after three innings. He avoided the IL, but it’s impossible to ignore the issue coinciding with his regression. It’s an issue Fried has dealt with — and overcome — in the past. Whether he returns to his previous form remains to be seen. — Castillo
What he has done so far: Henderson burst onto the scene in 2023 and 2024 and has posted the third-most shortstop WAR since then, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Francisco Lindor. Henderson, 24, has 3.7 WAR this season, as he’s hitting .284 — a higher average than he finished with last season — with a .464 slugging percentage.
What to expect from here: He has established himself as one of the best infielders in the game, even if his 2024 numbers look like an outlier season. However, I expect his numbers to tick up in the last month-plus of the 2025 season. — McDaniel
32. Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
What he has done so far: It has been a representative age-32 season for Turner, though his power numbers are down. But because he has never had a lot of walks, he has been more reliant on batting average. Luckily, he’s one of baseball’s top hitters for average, and he remains an offensive force for one of baseball’s top attacks.
What to expect from here: Turner has lost a bit of bat speed over the past couple of years, and the decline in isolated power might be who he is. He hasn’t homered since June. But Turner remains an exceptional athlete and a key part of the Phillies’ push for a title as a star-level player who helps his team all across the stat sheet. — Doolittle
33. Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
What he has done so far: A couple of ailments kept Harper out of the lineup long enough this season that his counting stats aren’t lofty, but he’s as dangerous as ever when it matters most, as evidenced by his .379 OBP and .866 OPS with runners in scoring position. Pitchers still fear him as he possesses one of the most violent swings in the sport. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.68) is his lowest since 2021 and one of the lowest of his career. His game screams winning.
What to expect from here: Harper understands what’s in front of him: another chance at a ring — perhaps the last with this group of Phillies. Expect a big finish during which he helps his team to a division title and then does what he always does in the postseason: hit critical home runs. Harper has a career 1.016 OPS in the playoffs. Another great October could cement him as one of the better postseason performers of his era — if he isn’t already. — Rogers
What he has done so far: Kurtz was somewhat unexpected as the No. 4 pick in last summer’s draft, with Jac Caglianone still on the board. They’re both now in the big leagues ahead of schedule, but Kurtz’s 3.4 WAR vs. Cags’ minus-1.3 WAR isn’t what anyone expected, on either count. He had a dominant July in which he slashed .395/.480/.953 with a whopping 1.433 OPS.
What to expect from here: Kurtz has the fifth-best bat speed in the league, so he’s a legitimate All-Star-level player, but I expect his 1.012 OPS to come down a bit, as he has been quite lucky on ball-in-play outcomes. — McDaniel
35. Joe Ryan, SP, Minnesota Twins
What he has already done so far: Contenders looking for a starting pitcher really hoped that the Twins would consider swapping the right-hander in July. But even during a massive makeover, Minnesota kept Ryan, who has become one of the most reliable starters in the game with a sub-3.00 ERA and a sturdy six innings just about every start.
What to expect from here: Ryan will have four-plus years of service time after this season, so unless the Twins’ ownership gives him a long-term deal, you’ll see his name in trade rumors again this winter and next summer. And, once again, you will hear about contenders pestering his team for the chance to sign him. — Olney
What he has done so far: Seager ranks second among qualified shortstops with a .359 wOBA, and his 17 home runs ranks in the top 10 for shortstops despite missing 33 games, mostly because of a hamstring injury in May. The Rangers have struggled on offense, with Seager their lone hitter with an OPS better than .727 (he’s at .847).
What to expect from here: Seager must finish strong to reach 30 home runs for the fourth consecutive season (despite averaging only 131 games the first three years), which is possible, as he enjoyed several double-digit home run months in 2024. The two-time World Series MVP (once with the Rangers in 2023) can thrive again and carry this beleaguered offense back to October. — Karabell
What he has done so far: Suarez is a throwback slugger, a guy whose best skill is his ability to regularly hit baseballs really hard. He’s not much of a defender at third base and can’t really run, so he just hits home runs, which is a pretty good consolation prize. He has 37 this season and is now back with Seattle, which, at one time, sent him to the Diamondbacks. The Mariners got him back at the trade deadline to bat behind the dominant top of their lineup, which will allow Suarez to find one of his hot streaks and use it to carry the team.
What to expect from here: Even at his best, Suarez hasn’t been anyone’s idea of a consistent hitter. He can lapse into deep funks and emerge as a world-beater. That’s how the swing works for mashers like Suarez. He doesn’t walk, and he strikes out too much. Almost nobody swings and misses more. But when he’s seeing the ball well and the swing is right, it’s majestic, the kind of swing that, from the No. 5 hole, can drive in a lot of baserunners. That is why the Mariners traded for Suarez: He is one of the best at the most important thing to do in the game. — Passan
What he has done so far: Mr. Consistency is on track for a typical Logan Webb season, which means making every start and perhaps leading the NL in innings for the third straight season. Though his ERA is right in line with his career numbers, he has significantly increased his strikeout rate. Signed for three more seasons, he remains the anchor of not just the pitching staff, but the team. That contract looks like one of the best deals in the game.
What to expect from here: The Giants’ playoff hopes are slim, but they’ll have to depend on Webb and Robbie Ray and hope somebody else in the rotation steps up to have any chance of getting in. Webb had a couple of bad starts in July, twice giving up six runs, before reeling off back-to-back strong starts against the Pirates. He then gave up four runs against the Padres. So, let’s see what continues to happen against better lineups. — Schoenfield
What he has done so far: At age 35, Eovaldi is enjoying the most outstanding season of his 15-year MLB career. He has 4.0 WAR, and if not for his monthlong stint on the IL in June, he’d have the requisite innings to lead the majors in ERA. Before giving up five runs to the Diamondbacks on Monday, Eovaldi had a 0.47 ERA since the beginning of July, helping keep the Rangers within striking distance of a wild-card spot.
What to expect from here: If the Rangers are to rally their way back into the wild-card race, they’ll need Eovaldi and his filthy splitter to remain healthy to form one of baseball’s best one-two starter duos alongside Jacob deGrom. Eovaldi’s ratios are sure to regress, considering he has the sixth-widest ERA/FIP divide among pitchers who have worked at least as many innings as him, but he should remain one of the league’s better — and most underrated — starters. — Cockcroft
What he has done so far: Through the season’s first two months, Freeman performed like one of the best players in the game. For most of the next two months, he lost his swing, displayed no power and navigated through a prodigious slump. Now, he’s back to hitting. The key, Freeman said, was getting into his front side. At this rate, despite the roller coaster, his numbers will look about as good as they always do.
What to expect from here: Freeman is in his age-35 season, with the DH spot unavailable to him on the Dodgers. He also hates taking days off. So, the Dodgers will hope Freeman can hold up over the stretch run. They need him at his best in October, but also, they need his best now. The Dodgers are in a tight division race. And they need Freeman to continue to hit like he has in August (.361 batting average and three home runs in the first 10 games), not like he did in July (.253 batting average and one home run in 24 games). — Gonzalez
41. Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
What he has done so far: After starting nine games over his first two Rangers seasons from 2023 to 2024, deGrom has made 23 starts in 2025, his most since 2019. Perhaps reducing his fastball velocity (to 97.5 mph) and strikeout rate has allowed him to stay healthy. He is among the top pitchers in the majors with 10 wins, a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, but he has thrown 100 pitches in a start only once.
What to expect from here: Texas leads MLB in rotation ERA, and a healthy deGrom is critical to team success. The Rangers are aware of the durability issues, and the 37-year-old has thrown 100 pitches in a start only once, in May. — Karabell
42. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
What he has done so far: Playing on a two-year contract with an opt-out after this season, Alonso has rebounded significantly at the plate, with his 146 OPS+ tied for his second-best single-season number and his 93 RBIs the third most in baseball. Statcast reflects a significant jump in his contact quality, as his barrel and hard hit rates, as well as his average exit velocity, are personal bests.
What to expect from here: As should be expected from a three true outcomes-style slugger, Alonso’s 2025 has been streaky. He registered a .920-plus OPS in April, June and August; his OPS dipped below .700 in May and July. Which version of Alonso the Mets get from this point on will determine whether they win the NL East or advance to October as a wild card, but either way, he’s aligning himself nicely for another crack at a free agent payday this winter. — Cockcroft
43. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
What he has done so far: For a month, Bichette’s 2024 slump seemed to carry over. Then, it didn’t. He didn’t homer until May 3, but he has hit 16 since then in returning to his pre-2024 form. His days as a 20-plus-steals guy appear to be over, but his aggressive, bat-on-ball approach has Bichette on track to lead the AL in hits for the third time and pushed his average back over .300.
What to expect from here: A soft MVP push? Bichette won’t win, but the deeper we get into the season, the hotter he seems to get — and he’s doing this for a Blue Jays team in great position to win the AL East. After a robust .941 OPS in June, Bichette is at 1.094 in August. What will September look like? — Doolittle
What he has done so far: Perdomo was long admired as a prospect because of his well-rounded skill set that lacked only power. This season has been his breakout, as his in-game power has ticked up to fringe-average while the rest of his profile is above average-to-plus — the makings of a perennial All-Star.
What to expect from here: He’s already at 3.7 WAR — the highest total of his five-year career. I think this season might look like a career year going forward, but I’d expect 3- or 4-win seasons soon. — McDaniel
What he has done so far: The 22-year-old made the All-Star team in his first full season in the majors and arguably deserved to start after hitting .278/.381/.534 at the break with 24 home runs. It looked like he might get to 40 home runs, but the strikeouts have piled up in big numbers since then, and Wood has been one of the worst hitters in the majors the past three weeks.
What to expect from here: Can he make the necessary adjustments to get back on track? He has above-average plate discipline with a 66th percentile chase rate, so that helps, and he has crushed fastballs. But he has struggled big time against breaking balls and off-speed pitches, hitting under .200 against those offerings. These are typical issues for a young player, and he has time to figure things out and return to being one of the most exciting hitters in the game. — Schoenfield
46. George Springer, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
What he has done so far: Springer’s OPS progression for his first four seasons with Toronto went .907, .814, .732 and .674, the last of those declining figures coming in his age-34 season in 2024. If you thought Springer’s best days were behind him, you would have been justified. Instead, he has enjoyed a resurgent campaign, pushing his OPS near .900 and matching his counting numbers for last season by early August.
What to expect from here: Whatever Springer figured out, his game has truly turned back the clock. While keeping his strikeout rate steady, he has increased his walk rate by a third while somehow coaxing another 2.5 mph out of his average exit velocity. His increasing tendency to hit too many balls on the ground has vanished, and he’s getting the ball in the air as much as ever. Meet the new Springer … who looks like vintage Springer. — Doolittle
What he has done so far: Boyd’s first full season after Tommy John surgery in 2023 has gone superbly, as he has won a career-best 11 games, has an ERA (2.45) more than two runs below his career number (4.53) and made his first All-Star team. He only seems to be getting better, with five scoreless starts of at least five innings in his past eight outings, during which his fastball has averaged an elevated 93.5 mph.
What to expect from here: It remains to be seen how Boyd will hold up, considering he didn’t exceed 88 professional innings in any of the previous five seasons, though he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Nevertheless, the Cubs are considering moving to a six-man rotation once Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad return, helping lighten the load on Boyd, who is a critical part of their quest to advance deep into October. — Cockcroft
What he has done so far: The heights of his 2019 NL MVP season are likely in the rearview for good, but Bellinger has remade himself as a hitter with an above-average contact rate and in-game power. He has the third-best batting average of the Yankees’ regular starters and has 20 home runs and 66 RBIs.
What to expect from here: He’s now 30 years old and playing mostly corner outfield, on pace for a 4-win season. Given his age and trajectory, I wouldn’t expect him to move up this list or eclipse 4.0 WAR again, but I think he has multiple years left as an above-average regular. — McDaniel
What he has already done so far: In his first foray into free agency, Bregman bet heavily on himself by taking what is effectively a one-year deal with the Red Sox because he can opt out after this season. And that bet figures to pay off this winter, with Bregman generating his highest slugging percentage (.541) since 2019 and his highest batting average ever; he could hit .300 for the first time in his career.
What to expect from here: He’s 31 years old and there are no signs that his peak years are waning, so it figures that Bregman will see significant offers again this winter. The Red Sox have loved having him, and you’d assume there will be conversations about a long-term deal, but he continues to be a really nice potential fit on paper for the Tigers, as well. — Olney
50. Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
What he has done so far: Chapman is enjoying another typical season for him, with above-average offense (thanks to his power and walk rate) and excellent third base defense. He missed most of June because of a hand injury, but then he produced a reasonable .739 OPS in July.
What to expect from here: Chapman might still play in 140 games for the seventh consecutive full season, reach 27 home runs for the fifth time and earn his third consecutive Gold Glove (and sixth overall). He produced an .888 OPS last September. He can do it again for a franchise seeking its first postseason berth since 2021. — Karabell
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