
Irish Farmageddon, a new option team and … UTEP?! Your guide to CFB fun in 2025
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Bill ConnellyAug 18, 2025, 07:15 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
The 1990 college football season kicked off with chaos off the field and a sense of familiarity on it. Miami and Notre Dame had gone a combined 22-1 against the rest of the nation in 1989, and the Hurricanes’ 27-10 win over the Irish on Nov. 25 had basically decided the national title. In 1990, they predictably began the season ranked No. 1 and 2, respectively; Florida State, the only team to beat either in 1989, began the year ranked fourth, and the others in the preseason top 10 had all finished the previous season 12th or better. Though each year produces its own upstarts, the sport’s balance of power seemed crystal clear heading into the 1990s.
Off the field, everything was as blurry as could be. With Penn State’s impending move to the Big Ten, the first major run of conference realignment was underway, and people were envisioning a world that might feature as few as three superconferences. Sports Illustrated’s Austin Murphy wrote about a possible Super SEC (with Florida State, Miami, South Carolina and the SWC’s Arkansas, Texas and Texas A&M) and a Pac-14 with Colorado, BYU, San Diego State and Utah. It began to seem as if anything were possible regarding the future of the sport.
Those vibes unexpectedly made their way onto the field. The season started with a wild 31-31 tie between No. 5 Colorado and No. 8 Tennessee — the Vols scored 21 points in the final eight minutes to erase a two-score deficit — and the temperature never went down. Miami lost to BYU in Week 2, Colorado suffered a second blemish the next week, and the upsets came so hot-and-heavy that Virginia found itself No. 1 for the first time by mid-October. By the end of the year, 18 teams had appeared in the AP top five, the most ever. Colorado ended up splitting the national title with Georgia Tech even though the Yellow Jackets hadn’t entered the polls until October and the Buffaloes had suffered the aforementioned multiple blemishes. Colorado had also famously benefited from the sport’s most famous clipping penalty and, of course, a fifth down.
(Charles Johnson didn’t score on fifth down either. The Missouri grad in me is obligated to endlessly remind you of this.)
The Buffaloes and Yellow Jackets didn’t play each other for the title, of course, because in 1990 we were still letting poll voters and half-informed and self-interested bowl officials decide who had a shot at a ring. Georgia Tech had to play No. 18 Nebraska in the Citrus Bowl because the Sugar Bowl had locked up Virginia in early November, right before the Cavaliers fell apart following a loss to … Georgia Tech. The Orange Bowl, having already landed Colorado, could have selected Tech for a 1-versus-2 battle but decided to go with big brand Notre Dame instead. Television ratings were more important than merit, after all.
Thirty-five years later, on the first Friday night of the season, Colorado and Georgia Tech will meet for the first time. That Sunday, Miami and Notre Dame will face off as well. The sport is facing unprecedented change off the field — so much so that I wrote a book about it — but any 1990 vibes we can channel on the field are welcome because in these parts we love chaos. College football is at its best when (again, on the field) it makes the least possible sense.
Messy seasons take on lives of their own, but really, college football’s superpower is that it’s far too big to contain. There are always messes, and there is always a close game on, a funky offense to watch and small-school madness to follow. Each year I create a road map for getting the most out of the season. Here’s how to enjoy yourself to the fullest this fall.
Watch the big games (duh)
Sometimes you have to search for the fun, and other times it’s staring you in the face. The spectacle of a big game is one of college football’s best draws. Here are three games from each week that feature (A) the highest combined projected SP+ ratings from the two teams and (B) a projected scoring margin (per SP+) of less than 10 points. (Games between teams in the preseason AP Top 25 are in bold.)
Week 1: Texas at Ohio State, LSU at Clemson, Notre Dame at Miami (Sunday)
Week 2: Michigan at Oklahoma, Baylor at SMU, Iowa at Iowa State
Week 3: Georgia at Tennessee, Texas A&M at Notre Dame, Florida at LSU
Week 4: Florida at Miami, Michigan at Nebraska, Auburn at Oklahoma
Week 5: Alabama at Georgia, Oregon at Penn State, LSU at Ole Miss
Week 6: Texas at Florida, Miami at Florida State, Kansas State at Baylor
Week 7: Alabama at Missouri, Oklahoma vs. Texas, Georgia at Auburn
Week 8: Tennessee at Alabama, Ole Miss at Georgia, Penn State at Iowa
Week 9: Alabama at South Carolina, Texas A&M at LSU, Ole Miss at Oklahoma
Week 10: Penn State at Ohio State, Florida vs. Georgia, Oklahoma at Tennessee
Week 11: LSU at Alabama, Oregon at Iowa, Texas A&M at Missouri
Week 12: Texas at Georgia, Florida at Ole Miss, South Carolina at Texas A&M
Week 13: Tennessee at Florida, Missouri at Oklahoma, Kansas State at Utah
Week 14: Ohio State at Michigan, Texas A&M at Texas, Alabama at Auburn
Granted, Week 2 is a bit of an alternative programming week — allow me to petition for “College GameDay” to pass on Michigan-Oklahoma in favor of the resumption of the Mizzou-Kansas Border War in Columbia — but big games are distributed nicely throughout the season.
Irish Farmageddon, baby!
We get a fun and important game even before Week 1 arrives: This Saturday, No. 17 Kansas State and No. 22 Iowa State will meet for the 109th iteration of Farmageddon — and in the farm-iest of locales: Ireland. ISU has won four of the past five to take a 54-50-4 lead in the series, and the winner of this one will enter Week 1 as a favorite to reach the Big 12 championship game. I really should have pushed to cover this game in person.
Week 5 is incredible
I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a September weekend as big as Week 5 might shape up to be. Preseason No. 2 Penn State hosts No. 7 Oregon, while No. 5 Georgia attempts revenge at home against No. 8 Alabama. Meanwhile, the undercard is endless. No. 9 LSU visits No. 21 Ole Miss in one of the SEC’s more spirited old rivalries, No. 7 Notre Dame visits Arkansas for the first time in a Lou Holtz Bowl of sorts, No. 3 Ohio State visits an ambitious Washington, and Auburn visits No. 19 Texas A&M in a rivalry that frequently produces silliness.
Plus, two Big Ten games that might not catch the eye in some years — USC at No. 12 Illinois, No. 20 Indiana at Iowa — take on a lot of playoff relevance, and I haven’t even mentioned TCU at No. 11 Arizona State on Friday night, a great Group of 5 showdown between Appalachian State and Boise State or an FCS top-five matchup between South Dakota and North Dakota State! There’s almost too much to keep track of in Week 5. Clear your schedule.
Bask in wild conference title races
In last week’s SP+ projections, the top eight teams in the Big 12 were separated by only 6.0 points, and 10 teams were within a touchdown of the projected top two. In the SEC, the top six were separated by 6.1 points. In the American, the top five were separated by 6.1. In the Sun Belt, Nos. 2 through 9 were separated by 6.7.
In the ACC, Big Ten, Conference USA, MAC and Mountain West, there are pretty clear hierarchies at the top. Surprises are always possible, but we know who should be (and is) favored. In these four other conferences, however, we could be in for spectacular plot twists. Irish Farmageddon should give us an early taste of this, followed by Georgia at Tennessee in Week 3, but things will kick into overdrive in Week 5 and include a good number of midweek games. Some particularly big weeks:
Week 8: Ole Miss at Georgia, Tennessee at Alabama, Texas Tech at Arizona State, Utah at BYU, Baylor at TCU, Army at Tulane, Coastal Carolina at App State, Texas State at Marshall
Week 9: James Madison at Texas State (Tues.), Marshall at Coastal Carolina (Thurs.), Texas A&M at LSU, Ole Miss at Oklahoma, BYU at Iowa State, Colorado at Utah, Kansas State at Kansas, South Florida at Memphis, Louisiana at South Alabama
Week 11: UTSA at South Florida (Thurs.), Georgia Southern at App State (Thurs.), LSU at Alabama, BYU at Texas Tech, Iowa State at TCU, Tulane at Memphis, James Madison at Marshall, Texas State at Louisiana
Week 14: Navy at Memphis (Fri.), Texas A&M at Texas, LSU at Oklahoma, Colorado at Kansas State, Utah at Kansas, Army at UTSA, James Madison at Coastal Carolina, South Alabama at Texas State, Georgia Southern at Marshall
Which new/young SEC quarterback takes control?
It was easily one of the most interesting storylines I pieced together as I was writing my conference previews: The SEC is overflowing with new or young starting quarterbacks with massive upside and incomplete résumés, so much so that they got their own section in my most important players of 2025 list. For that matter, six of the top eight teams in the preseason AP poll have new starting QBs.
Most of these guys are athletic and exciting, which is to say that they’re capable of making tons of big plays and/or taking lots of hits. A couple of them will underachieve or battle injuries that impact their teams significantly. A couple could break through and lead top-five charges. Figuring out who’s who will be both entertaining and integral to the playoff race.
Year 2 on Lake Michigan
Five Home Games at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium. See you next Fall 🌊 pic.twitter.com/Mh2pHonQvJ
— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) December 13, 2024
Northwestern is spending almost a billion dollars on its Ryan Field rebuild, and this is the last season the Wildcats will play in their temporary home at Martin Stadium on Lake Michigan. It’s an incredible, aesthetically pleasing venue, and it will host at least one pretty big-time game: the Wildcats’ Week 3 matchup against Oregon. (Their late-season home games against Michigan and Minnesota will be at Wrigley Field, unfortunately.)
The Pepto-Bismol All-Stars
Certain teams will be playing in an inordinate number of close games. According to my final preseason SP+ projections, there are a whopping 25 teams with at least eight games projected to finish within one score (approximately 7.5 points), including eight schools with nine such games. (Perhaps not surprisingly, four of these teams are from the Big 12.) You will be watching the fourth quarter of many of their games.
10 tight games: UTEP
9 tight games: Baylor, Colorado State, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee, San Diego State, TCU, West Virginia
8 tight games: Akron, Appalachian State, Delaware, Florida, Hawai’i, Houston, Iowa, Jacksonville State, Kansas, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, North Texas, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Sam Houston, Texas A&M, Utah
UTEP is a heavy underdog against Texas in Week 3 and a two-touchdown dog against Liberty in mid-October. But from the Utah State game in Week 1 to the trip to Delaware in Week 14, the other 10 games are projected within five points. Guhhhh. Stock up on antacid, Miners fans.
Embrace the option
Army and Navy enjoyed sudden surges in 2024 thanks to new interpretations of their good, old option offenses. Army surged from a combined 12-12 in 2022-23 to 12-2 last fall — with an American conference title — thanks to a combined 2,794 rushing yards and 42 TDs from quarterback Bryson Daily and fullback Kanye Udoh. Navy, meanwhile, left behind four straight losing seasons with a 10-3 campaign and defeated both Army and Oklahoma in December. And although Daily and Udoh are gone, Navy quarterback Blake Horvath returns in 2025.
Neither service academy will sneak up on anyone this year, but they’re still going to run their own versions of sexy option offenses. Air Force has maintained its own variety of the option and has been rewarded with five 10-win seasons in 11 years, though the Falcons fell off course after heavy turnover in 2024.
I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. These three schools have long annoyed the hell out of opponents with their increasingly unique attacks. But we’re welcoming someone new to the FBS option party this year: Rice, which enjoyed a few winning seasons in the 1990s with Ken Hatfield’s option offense, decided to give it another go, hiring Davidson’s Scott Abell to replace Mike Bloomgren.
At Davidson, Abell’s Wildcats drew attention with gaudy rushing totals at the FCS level, and in his very first season, they pulled off one of the most unusual accomplishments you’ll ever see, rushing for 789 yards in one game … and losing. I don’t expect many wins from Rice in 2025, but the Owls are virtually guaranteed to find a rhythm against an insufficiently prepared opponent and produce some delightful numbers. You’ll want to keep an eye out for it.
Watch the midweek games
1:08
BYU fans go wild on late game-winning TD
BYU’s Darius Lassiter sends the crowd into a frenzy after hauling in a miraculous touchdown catch in the waning moments against Oklahoma State.
Midweek games are great for giving us opportunities to catch up on interesting teams, dive into fun locales (and maybe slide down a muddy hill) and, quite frequently, enjoy some silly football. Last season alone, the midweek slate gave us BYU’s incredible last-second win over Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech’s overturned Hail Mary against Miami, Duke’s overtime win over Northwestern on Lake Michigan, wild Arizona State wins and UNLV thrillers, Kennesaw State’s first win as an FBS team (a shocking upset of Liberty) and a number of zany comebacks. November’s MACtion slate gave us a weekly classic, and Week 4 gave us maybe the wildest Friday night of all time, featuring a big Stanford upset of Syracuse and two overtime games (Illinois over Nebraska and Washington State over San Jose State). Whew.
The 2025 midweek games have a high bar to clear. Not including Black Friday after Thanksgiving, here’s one Tuesday-to-Friday game to pay particular attention to each week. (I made an exception for the start of MACtion.) We’ll inevitably gravitate toward whichever wild games go down to the wire, but these will be worth paying attention to regardless.
Week 1: Georgia Tech at Colorado (Fri.)
Week 2: James Madison at Louisville (Fri.)
Week 3: NC State at Wake Forest (Thurs.)
Week 4: Iowa at Rutgers (Fri.)
Week 5: TCU at No. 11 Arizona State (Fri.)
Week 6: West Virginia at BYU (Fri.)
Week 7: East Carolina at Tulane (Thurs.)
Week 8: Louisville at No. 10 Miami (Fri.)
Week 9: California at Virginia Tech (Thurs.)
Week 10: James Madison at Texas State (Tues.)
Week 11: Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Tues.), Northern Illinois at Toledo (Wed.), UTSA at South Florida (Thurs.), Tulane at Memphis (Fri.)
Week 12: No. 4 Clemson at Louisville (Fri.)
Week 13: Florida State at NC State (Fri.)
Week 14: Navy at Memphis (Thanksgiving)
Watch as much smaller-school football as you can
Think about it this way: As breathless as the 1990 season already was, it was even wilder if you followed the sport at all levels. In the I-AA (now FCS) playoffs that year, newcomer UCF upset Jim Tressel’s second-ranked Youngstown State team in the first round, and Nevada erased a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Furman in three overtimes in the quarterfinals before beating rival Boise State 59-52 in another three overtimes in the semis. Eventual champ Georgia Southern had to survive a 28-27 epic against Idaho in the quarters before hitting fifth gear.
At the Division III level, Allegheny and Lycoming, each making their first (and, for Allegheny, only) title-game appearances, played a Stagg Bowl epic, with Ken O’Keefe’s Allegheny Gators winning 21-14 in overtime. In NAIA, Billy Joe’s Central State Marauders embarked on one of the greatest modern runs by an HBCU program, winning three playoff games by a combined 127-40 to claim their first national title.
Small-school football is the ultimate world builder. On a given Saturday, there’s always a bitter rivalry you hadn’t heard of and an unforgettable finish you’d never seen before. Every week provides title stakes of some sort before the breathless beast known as the smaller-school playoffs gets underway in November. The more you see, the happier you become, and you can watch just about any game in the country via either a streaming service or a school’s website.
Here are three huge smaller-school games for each week of the regular season, plus a choice selection for Week 0. Top-10 matchups are in bold.
Week 0: No. 7 UC Davis vs. No. 11 Mercer (FCS Kickoff Classic)
Week 1: No. 9 Pittsburg State at No. 1 Ferris State (D-II) (Thurs.), No. 4 Morningside at No. 3 Benedictine (NAIA), No. 14 Sacramento State at No. 3 South Dakota State (FCS)
Week 2: No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 2 Montana State (FCS), No. 3 Benedictine at No. 1 Grand View (NAIA), No. 9 Pittsburg State at No. 5 Central Oklahoma (D-II)
Week 3: No. 3 Grand Valley State at No. 9 Pittsburg State (D-II), No. 2 Mount Union at No. 23 Grove City (D-III), No. 6 Colorado State-Pueblo at No. 22 Central Missouri (D-II)
Week 4: No. 3 Johns Hopkins at No. 4 Susquehanna (D-III), No. 8 Georgetown (Ky.) at No. 6 St. Thomas (Fla.) (NAIA), No. 4 Incarnate Word at No. 18 Northern Arizona (FCS)
Week 5: No. 5 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (FCS), No. 18 Ouachita Baptist at No. 2 Harding (D-II), No. 17 Jackson State at Southern (FCS)
Week 6: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 6 Illinois State (FCS), No. 5 St. John’s at No. 12 Bethel (D-III), No. 17 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central (D-III)
Week 7: No. 8 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 6 Hardin-Simmons (D-III), No. 19 Northern Arizona at No. 7 UC Davis (FCS), No. 15 UW-Platteville at No. 19 UW-River Falls (D-III)
Week 8: No. 6 St. Thomas (Fla.) at No. 2 Keiser (NAIA), No. 4 Morningside at No. 10 Northwestern (Iowa) (NAIA), No. 5 Montana Western at College of Idaho (NAIA)
Week 9: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 3 South Dakota State (FCS), No. 3 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (D-II), No. 6 Illinois State at No. 5 South Dakota (FCS)
Week 10: No. 6 CSU-Pueblo at No. 10 Western Colorado (D-II), No. 8 Tarleton State at No. 16 Abilene Christian (FCS), East Tennessee State at Chattanooga (FCS)
Week 11: No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 5 South Dakota (FCS), No. 6 Hardin-Simmons at No. 8 Mary Hardin-Baylor (D-III), No. 7 UC Davis at No. 12 Idaho (FCS)
Week 12: No. 7 UC Davis at No. 2 Montana State (FCS), No. 6 Illinois State at No. 3 South Dakota State (FCS), No. 12 Valdosta State at No. 8 West Florida (D-II)
Week 13: No. 2 Montana State at No. 9 Montana (FCS), No. 14 Sacramento State at No. 7 UC Davis (FCS), No. 15 Lehigh at Lafayette (FCS)
Better yet, adopt a small-school team
Want the full smaller-school experience? Follow a team (preferably a good one) from start to finish. Here are five particularly choice options.
Incarnate Word. The Cardinals have averaged 39.5 points per game in the 2020s, and their defense has improved significantly of late. Third-year coach Clint Killough, still only 32, has been aggressive in the transfer portal, and with lots of powerful FCS teams in flux because of an increase in transfers to FBS, UIW might have a shot at a return to the FCS semifinals or better. A good team that doesn’t mind a track meet every now and then? Yeah, watch UIW.
Slippery Rock. The Rock made the Division II semifinals last year, and they were the only team to stay within 34 points of a rampant Ferris State in the playoffs, falling 48-38. They’ve been elite at both offense and defense at some point recently, they could have the best line play of any D-II team outside of Ferris, and the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference is really fun to follow. And, I mean, they’re called The Rock! You want to root for The Rock!
Pittsburg State. Division II’s MIAA is a blast, with at least two teams — Central Oklahoma and Central Missouri — thirsting for track meets on a weekly basis. Pitt State actually plays defense, but the Gorillas are on this list both because they should be very good and because they’re absolutely masochistic: They’re starting the season at No. 1 Ferris State, at No. 5 Central Oklahoma and at home versus No. 3 Grand Valley State. They could be toast by the end of September, or they could be a national title contender.
A Division III Wisconsin team of your choice. The 2024 WIAC race was one of the sport’s best, featuring weekly heart-stoppers and plot twists and finishing with six of eight teams within two games of the title. All six of those teams — UW-La Crosse, UW-Platteville, UW-River Falls, UW-Whitewater, UW-Oshkosh and UW-Stout — rank between 11th and 32nd in the national preseason poll at D3football.com.
River Falls and Stout haven’t won a conference title since the turn of the century; La Crosse was a 1980s and 1990s power but hasn’t made the D-III semis since 1996; Oshkosh came within three points of the 2016 national title but hasn’t won a playoff game since 2017; Platteville has beautiful orange-and-blue jerseys and is hunting for its first playoff win in 14 years; and Whitewater, the D-III standard-bearer for so long, has fallen off a bit but still defends like heck.
Pick your fighter and buckle in.
Montana Western. Last year I suggested adopting College of Idaho, and the Yotes were track meet kings until a late-season slump. This season your points-loving, NAIA team of choice in Big Sky country should be Montana Western. The Bulldogs topped 40 points seven times before dropping a 31-24 heartbreaker to NAIA power Morningside in the playoffs. Quarterback Michael Palandri has thrown for 6,213 yards and 58 TDs in the past two years. This team should be excellent and ridiculously entertaining.
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Week 5 preview: Georgia-Alabama, key conference matchups, plus quarterbacks to know
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3 hours agoon
September 25, 2025By
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One of the most anticipated weekends on the 2025 college football calendar is upon us.
The headliner comes Saturday night when No. 6 Oregon visits No. 3 Penn State. A potentially season-defining occasion, the clash of Big Ten powers, will test quarterbacks Drew Allar (Penn State) and Dante Moore (Oregon), Nittany Lions coach James Franklin and the Ducks’ backbone as they step into the hostile confines of Beaver Stadium in Week 5.
Elsewhere, eyes will fall on a trio of juicy SEC matchups: Alabama–Georgia, Auburn–Texas A&M and Ole Miss–LSU, all of which could hold significant implications for the conference title race and the College Football Playoff field.
Ahead of a series of high-level games, our college football reporters deliver their insights on keys to the weekend’s biggest matchups, five quarterbacks putting themselves on the map this fall and the best quotes so far from Week 5. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Alabama | Quarterbacks to know
Key conference matchups
Quotes of the Week
What does each team need to capitalize on to win?
Georgia: If the Bulldogs are going to defeat the Crimson Tide for only the second time in the past 11 meetings, they’ll have to avoid getting themselves in another big hole — and take advantage of playing Alabama at home for the first time in nearly 10 years.
In last season’s 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa, the Bulldogs trailed by three touchdowns before the end of the first quarter and by 28 points less than 18 minutes into the game. Georgia put together a furious rally in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight touchdowns to grab a 34-33 lead.
The Crimson Tide won on Jalen Milroe‘s 75-yard scoring pass to Ryan Williams with 2:18 to go.
Georgia had a similar slow start in its 44-41 victory in overtime at Tennessee on Sept. 13. The Volunteers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions to take a 21-7 lead, and the Bulldogs had to come from behind on the road. They were fortunate that Tennessee missed a 43-yard field goal attempt to take the lead near the end of regulation.
The Bulldogs didn’t do a good job of containing Milroe last season. He threw for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores, including several long runs to keep drives alive. New Tide quarterback Ty Simpson isn’t as fast as Milroe, but he also isn’t a statue standing in the pocket.
Williams burned Georgia’s secondary on some big plays last season, finishing with six catches for 177 yards. The Bulldogs had similar problems against Tennessee’s fast-paced offense, and they’ll have to shore up those mistakes and play better on the back end. Getting pressure on Simpson would also help; the Bulldogs had only four sacks in their first three games this season.
On offense, Georgia needs to do a better job of protecting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who took too many hits at Tennessee. The Bulldogs need to find more ways to get the ball into the hands of Zachariah Branch, and tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie also need to get their share of touches. Shoring up the right side of the offensive line, which has been a trouble spot, will allow them to be more involved in the passing game. — Mark Schlabach
Alabama: It has not been pretty for Alabama on the road under Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is 2-4 since he became head coach, including a 31-17 loss to Florida State to open the season. In that loss, the Crimson Tide looked lethargic at times and ended up being beaten up front on both sides of the ball. So to give themselves any chance against Georgia, their first road game since Week 1, they simply must play better on the offensive and defensive lines. Getting defensive lineman Tim Keenan III back from an ankle injury will be huge in that respect. Alabama has struggled to rush the passer without him, and has only four sacks on the season. Georgia has done a nice job using Gunner Stockton in the run game when needed, so slowing him down is also going to be key. That is also an area in which Alabama struggled against the Seminoles.
On the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said it would continue to rotate its starting offensive line unit to find the right combination. Getting Jam Miller back at running back is also is a big addition, not only because of his running ability but his presence as a pass blocker in the backfield. But more than anything, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said the team was eager to prove it has learned how to handle adversity in-game, something that cost it in the opener.
“There’s a difference when you have to go on the road, particularly in the SEC and in a hostile environment and respond to adversity,” Wommack said. “At times, we have been a team that has been reactionary to adversity, and we’ve got to be more responsive. It’s at the forefront of our minds, and I expect to see a very responsive football team on Saturday.” — Andrea Adelson
Five quarterbacks who are putting themselves on the map
Curt Cignetti found a gem via the transfer portal yet again. Mendoza was solid at Cal the past two years, but he was surrounded with little talent and playing in an offense that probably didn’t maximize his skill set. Turned loose at Indiana, he has looked like a genuine Heisman Trophy candidate, including a dominant five-touchdown performance in a win over Illinois. For the season, Mendoza has 14 touchdown passes without an interception.
When Castellanos talked smack about Alabama this summer, it became a national punchline. When he backed it up with a win over the Tide in Week 1, he had the last laugh. Through three games, Castellanos’ 91.6 Total QBR ranks third nationally, though he’ll be in for a test the next two weeks — a road trip to Virginia on Friday for what could be a shootout and then a showdown against rival Miami. If Castellanos takes down another top-five team, the Heisman might be his to lose.
A part of the same class as Drew Allar, Pribula wasn’t able to get onto the field with any regularity at Penn State. He entered the portal and landed at Missouri, but he didn’t win the starting job there until just before the opener. And yet, once he was given his chance to shine, Pribula has looked like a star. He has racked up 11 TDs so far this season and has the Tigers undefeated and trending up in the rankings.
The sixth-year senior has been through his share of growing pains. He was a well-regarded recruit at Colorado but was part of the brutal 2021 season that led to the arrival of coach Deion Sanders, then transferred to Nevada, where his team struggled again. Now he has found the right fit at Memphis, where he has the Tigers 4-0 and well positioned to snag the Group of 6’s playoff spot.
North Texas is 4-0 and Mestemaker has 10 TD passes and no picks. It’d be a great story if that was all there was to it. But this rags-to-riches tale goes much deeper. Mestemaker wasn’t even the starter at his high school and arrived at UNT as a walk-on. He got the start in last year’s bowl game after Chandler Morris entered the portal, then beat out Reese Poffenbarger for the starting job this fall. He has rewarded the Mean Green’s belief with a red-hot start to the season. — David Hale
Biggest things that need to happen in these matchups
Auburn-Texas A&M: This series has been a strange one since 2021. The Aggies won twice at home, both times by 17 points. Auburn won twice at home, by three in 2022 and then two last year, in a 43-41 upset in four overtimes. This game, in College Station, will be another interesting one. The Aggies are coming off a bye week after their upset of Notre Dame, their first nonconference road win against an AP top-10 team since 1979. Auburn lost 24-17 at Oklahoma and is 0-5 under Hugh Freeze against ranked teams on the road. For the Tigers, they’ll first need to shore up an offensive line that gave up eight sacks on Jackson Arnold from a standard pass rush. But Auburn will look to move the ball with its rushing attack (198 yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry) against the Aggies, who are giving up 139 yards per game on the ground and are 102nd nationally in scoring defense at 28.7 points. But if the Aggies can get Arnold into being one-dimensional and having to play from behind, that will give them an advantage. They can do so by utilizing the dynamic duo of Mario Craver, the SEC’s leading receiver with 443 yards, even with the bye week (he had seven catches for 207 yards against Notre Dame), and KC Concepcion, who had four catches for 82 yards against the Irish. — Dave Wilson
LSU-Ole Miss: Last season’s showdown went to overtime in Baton Rouge. Expect another tight battle that comes down to details and who capitalizes on opportunities. Third-down conversions are going to be essential. Ole Miss’ offense is 5-of-17 on third and medium (3 to 7 yards) this season, and LSU’s defense is getting stops on 14 of 22 chances in that spot. This is where Lane Kiffin’s decision at QB becomes even more critical. Trinidad Chambliss is averaging 12.3 yards per carry on third downs and has yet to take a third-down sack. Can he be efficient in those high-pressure moments against the best defense he has faced? For LSU’s offense, the big question is injured running back Caden Durham‘s availability and finding answers in the run game so Garrett Nussmeier isn’t frequently stuck in third-and-long. The Tigers’ average third-down distance this season has been 7.9 yards, which ranks 114th in FBS, according to ESPN Research. — Max Olson
Oregon-Penn State: Quarterback Drew Allar needs to be a reason — perhaps the reason — why the Nittany Lions notch a signature win in a game in which they have most of the advantages. Allar wasn’t overly sharp in his past two performances, completing fewer than 58% of his passes against both Villanova and Florida International. He will need to be sharper against a talented but quite young Oregon defense, and start to change his big-game rep. Oregon must show it can handle one of the toughest environments in college football, Beaver Stadium at night in a White Out. The game marks a big growth opportunity for Ducks quarterback Dante Moore, a first-year starter, and also promising young players such as wide receiver Dakorien Moore and defensive backs Brandon Finney Jr. and Aaron Flowers. The Ducks visited Michigan and Wisconsin in 2024, but they haven’t faced an elite Big Ten opponent on the road until now. — Adam Rittenberg
Quotes of the Week
“We need this place rocking,” Penn State coach James Franklin said ahead of the Nittany Lions’ White Out game against No. 6 Oregon. “Need to have a distinct home-field advantage. We always do, but I’m expecting this to be an environment like no one has ever seen.”
“We’ll do everything we can to be prepared for that environment for sure,” said Oregon’s Dan Lanning, who was also asked about the song “Mo Bamba”, which has become a fixture of No. 3 Penn State home games. “I don’t love that song.”
“I would say he’s probably the hottest quarterback right now in all of college football,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of Alabama’s Ty Simpson ahead of the Bulldogs’ Week 5 visit from the No. 17 Crimson Tide. “His two last outings, I don’t know [if] I’ve seen an incompletion. The ball does not hit the ground. He’s been accurate. He’s been quick with the ball. They’re really hard to defend because of their skill. They’ve got tremendous skill — receivers, backs, tight ends. But you got to have a trigger guy that can get those guys the ball and they do.”
“We ain’t with that get-back stuff,” Colorado’s Deion Sanders said as his team prepares to face No. 25 BYU nine months after the Cougars blew out the Buffaloes in the 2024 Valero Alamo Bowl. “I ain’t with that get-back stuff. I’m with that let’s-get-them stuff. They played their butts off, kicked our butts in the bowl game. Now we have a whole new team.”
“I always love when you guys say that, like, ‘Oh, OK, now we’ll go actually, like, try and game-plan really hard,” Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin said with the Rebels set to host No. 4 LSU on Saturday. “It’s OK. My boss says the same things when we play Arkansas. ‘Hey, I really need this one.’ Oh, OK, well then we’ll actually, like, try this week. We were just going to not try.”
“Is it hot in here or is it just me every week?” Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy speaking to reporters three days after the Cowboys 19-12 loss to Tulsa and less than 24 hours before he was fired Tuesday morning after his 21st season in charge of the program.
Sports
MLB Power Rankings: Guardians rise, Mets and Tigers fall ahead of playoffs
Published
6 hours agoon
September 25, 2025By
admin
We’re down to the final days of the 2025 regular season and in for some exciting baseball, as there are still quite a number of teams that have something to play for — including a few who are fighting tooth and nail for their postseason lives.
The Tigers, Guardians, Mets, Reds and Diamondbacks fall into that category — and all moved significantly in our final power rankings of the season. After holding a 12½-game lead over Cleveland as recently as Aug. 25, Detroit is now a game behind the Guardians, who sit atop the AL Central after beating the Tigers Tuesday and Wednesday following what might be one of the greatest comebacks/collapses of all time over the final month of the season.
There’s a similar sentiment around the Mets, who hold a slight one-game lead over Cincinnati and Arizona for the final wild-card spot as a late losing skid highlighted their second-half woes and put their playoff hopes on the line.
Which clubs will get to keep playing into October? And which will watch their playoff aspirations come to an end?
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 25 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 96-63
Previous ranking: 1
Getting healthy on the mound is the top priority for the Brewers heading into the postseason as Jose Quintana and Brandon Woodruff are the latest pitchers to go down. With Trevor Megill, Logan Henderson and DL Hall also on the mend, it’s a good thing the Brewers have a bye and go straight to the division series. That extra time could be a difference-maker. As it stands now, it’s anyone’s guess what the roster will look like when Milwaukee hosts its first playoff game on Oct. 4, but it’s safe to say the Brewers will get at least a few of the above arms back for playoff baseball. They’ll be needed. — Rogers
Record: 93-65
Previous ranking: 2
Losing Zack Wheeler for the season was a cruel gut punch, but the Phillies’ rotation remains stout with Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo leading the charge. On the position player side, Alec Bohm returned from the injured list Sunday and Trea Turner could be activated this weekend. With Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper anchoring the lineup, and closer Jhoan Duran nailing down the ninth inning, the Phillies are a real World Series contender even without Wheeler. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 4
Shohei Ohtani reached unchartered territory in his 14th and final regular-season start Tuesday, pitching six innings while keeping the Diamondbacks scoreless. Over his past four starts, Ohtani has given up only one run in 19⅔ innings, scattering 10 hits, issuing four walks and striking out a whopping 27 batters. He is one of several Dodgers starters pitching really well heading into the playoffs. The bullpen? That’s a completely different story. After Ohtani departed Tuesday, three relievers combined to give up five runs. The Dodgers wound up losing. They’re clearly willing to stretch Ohtani a little longer, but he can’t pitch all nine innings. — Gonzalez
Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 3
The Blue Jays were the first AL team to clinch a playoff spot, but they have the misfortune of being in the same division as the team with the second-best record in the AL. As a result, winning their first division title in a decade requires a strong finish against the Red Sox and Rays to fend off the Yankees with the Jays playing without Bo Bichette (knee) and Chris Bassitt (back). Toronto activated outfielder Anthony Santander from the IL on Tuesday for the final push, designating former AL Cy Young Award finalist Alek Manoah for assignment. The pressure is on to avoid the wild-card round. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 8
The Mariners are becoming a fashionable pick for October. They’re hot and could be starting to peak on the mound, where they’ve actually underachieved this season. Not lately though. The pitching staff was fantastic during a road sweep of the Astros as George Kirby and Bryan Woo are rounding into form — that is until Woo suffered a pectoral injury. The team says he could still pitch in October as treatment continues.
Regardless, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, who has given up only one run in his last 12 innings, have also been good. Seattle has plenty of options on the mound, and that includes in the bullpen, where Andres Munoz has been stellar. The Mariners feature the AL home run king in Cal Raleigh, but it’s their pitching staff that will lead them in the postseason. — Rogers
Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 7
The Yankees clinched their postseason spot Monday. Whether they catch Toronto for the AL East title — and subsequently earn a bye to the NLDS — or settle for a wild-card spot, one question remains: Who would start a Game 3 after Max Fried and Carlos Rodon? The candidates are Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year; Cam Schlittler, who has impressed as a rookie this season; and Will Warren, who has made 32 starts. Gil and Schlittler are the favorites. — Castillo
Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 5
A perfect storm has led to the Cubs’ longest losing skid of the season — coming right after a sweep of Pittsburgh clinched a playoff berth. Their subsequent opponents, the Reds and Mets, are playing desperate baseball in an attempt to get into the postseason themselves, leading to Cincinnati sweeping a four-game series against Chicago and New York taking the first of a three-game series.
The big concern for next week is Cade Horton. He left Tuesday’s start against the Mets because of some back/rib soreness after being ill all weekend. If it’s his last time on the mound until the postseason — assuming he’s healthy — he’ll have thrown a total of 29 pitches in two weeks, not exactly the sharpest way to enter the postseason. Offensively, the Cubs came out of their slumber against New York, putting up seven runs Tuesday, as they try to build momentum toward October. — Rogers
Record: 87-72
Previous ranking: 9
The Padres celebrated a return to the postseason after defeating the Brewers on Monday. They then beat the Brewers again Tuesday and suddenly began eyeing the NL West title once more. By that point, they trailed the Dodgers by only 1½ games. L.A. holds the tiebreaker and will also finish the season in Seattle. The Padres will finish at home against the Diamondbacks. For the Padres, winning the division would mean hosting the wild-card round at Petco Park, where they’re 49-29 this season (compared to just 38-43 on the road). It’s a big deal. — Gonzalez
Record: 87-71
Previous ranking: 10
Boston’s top three starting pitchers — Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito — give the team a real chance in a three-game wild-card series against anybody, but they need to get there first. For that to happen, the offense needs to find some life without Roman Anthony. The lineup has struggled since Anthony landed on the IL on Sept. 3 because of an oblique strain, averaging 4.7 runs in 17 games without him, but has started to pick up again more recently. The Red Sox are 9-8 in that span. — Castillo
Record: 86-72
Previous ranking: 14
The Guardians’ surge feels like a movie. On Sept. 4, they were 11 games out in the AL Central. Since then, they’ve won 17 of 19 games, the last two against the division-rival Tigers, defeating Tarik Skubal to tie them on Tuesday and cruising behind Tanner Bibee to victory on Wednesday to jump into first place for the first time since April 22. Longtime Cleveland ace Shane Bieber now pitches in Toronto while lights-out closer Emmanuel Clase is on paid leave amid a gambling probe, and yet the Guardians’ pitching staff holds a major league-best 1.58 ERA since Sept. 5. The Mariners are the only other team that even holds an ERA under 3.00. — Gonzalez
Record: 85-73
Previous ranking: 6
You probably know the numbers by now, but we might as well hash them: The Tigers held a 14-game lead in the AL Central on July 8, an 11½-game lead on Aug. 23 and a 9½-game lead on Sept. 10. At the end of last week, they still led the Guardians by a very comfortable 6½ games. Then, on Tuesday night, the Tigers fell to a surging Cleveland team despite having Tarik Skubal on the mound and found themselves not leading the division for the first time since April. It was their seventh loss in a row. Their eighth followed roughly 24 hours later. An unbelievable collapse, to say the least. — Gonzalez
Record: 84-74
Previous ranking: 11
The last week has not been kind to the Astros, especially at the plate, where they ranked near the bottom of the majors in OPS. It included three games at home against Seattle — all losses — in which they scored seven total runs. Add just a single tally in their series opener loss against the A’s on Tuesday and you can see why Houston is in danger of losing the division or even a postseason berth. The loss — again — of Yordan Alvarez obviously hurts. And perhaps the return of Isaac Paredes will give the Astros a boost, though it hasn’t yet. They need a hot finish from players such as Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena to extend their playoff streak to nine years. — Rogers
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 17
A four-game sweep of the Cubs over the weekend vaulted the Reds into the playoff picture, but they need to finish the job to make their first postseason appearance since 2020 and first in a full season since 2013. They also hold the tiebreaker with the Mets, so all Cincinnati has to do is match New York in the standings. It has become clear that the starting staff is the driving force behind anything good that happens in Cincinnati. Hunter Greene has been fantastic, as has Andrew Abbott. But despite their surge, the Reds remain just an average team at the plate, ranking in the bottom third in key offensive categories over the past couple of weeks. Some timely home runs have helped their cause. — Rogers
Record: 81-77
Previous ranking: 13
The Mets had the best record in baseball on June 13. Since then, they’ve had one of the worst — bad enough to enter the final week of the season on the edge of a historic collapse. Their fate could ultimately come down to the three rookie right-handers in their starting rotation. The Mets didn’t expect to need Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness forced the hand of president of baseball operations David Stearns. Now, the Mets are counting on them this week to help secure a spot in October. — Castillo
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 15
The wild, nausea-inducing roller-coaster ride that is this 2025 Diamondbacks season continues. Since the start of August alone, the team has navigated three losing streaks of three or more games but also eight winning streaks of three or more games. Arizona sealed its latest one Tuesday night, when it overcame a four-run deficit against the division-rival Dodgers and remained just one game back of the Mets for the final wild-card spot. That the D-backs are even at this point, in a year when they traded two of their best hitters and one of their best starters at the trade deadline, is wild. — Gonzalez
Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 12
A late win streak was followed by a later losing skid, eliminating the 2023 champs from the postseason for a second consecutive season. On the docket for Rangers brass is the future of manager Bruce Bochy and how to get more out of their inconsistent offense. That has now been a two-year question, though recent injuries to Marcus Semien and Corey Seager didn’t help. Neither was having a fantastic year anyway. As they age, the team needs new leaders at the plate. Wyatt Langford has looked the part at times. At 23 years old, he should be the next Rangers star. After an offensive evaluation is completed, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s winter goal will undoubtedly be to improve their run scoring. — Rogers
Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants blew a five-run lead against St. Louis on Tuesday and were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention by the end of it. It was only 11 days prior that they stood a half-game behind the Mets for the final NL wild-card spot. San Francisco then lost nine of 11 games to miss out on the playoffs for a fourth straight year — despite being 19-12 by the end of April and acquiring Rafael Devers in the middle of June. “This year is probably the most frustrating,” Giants ace Logan Webb told reporters. “No offense to the teams we’ve had before, but this is the most talented team I’ve been on.” — Gonzalez
Record: 79-79
Previous ranking: 18
The Royals won their third consecutive game on Sept. 6 and found themselves only one game back of the final wild-card spot. They needed a hot stretch to give themselves a chance over the final couple of weeks. Instead, they lost six of their next seven, falling seven games back and setting themselves up for what occurred Tuesday: being mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, moments before a series opener against the Angels. The Royals still have a chance at a second consecutive winning record, but they entered 2025 with far bigger expectations than that following their 2024 postseason run. — Gonzalez
Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 19
The Rays’ sale to a group led by Jacksonville real estate developer Patrick Zalupski reached another checkpoint Monday when MLB’s owners unanimously approved the transaction. Atop the new ownership group’s to-do list will be securing an agreement for a new ballpark. That will be the question hovering over the Rays this offseason — assuming the sale will be finalized — before they move back into Tropicana Field for 2026. — Castillo
Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 20
Longtime executive John Mozeliak is set to say goodbye after this weekend, handing the keys over to new Cardinals decision-maker Chaim Bloom. His first order of business could be deciding the fate of manager Oliver Marmol, who deserves some credit for holding the team together during a stated transition year. Next, Bloom needs to rebuild the pitching staff beyond Sonny Gray, who is signed for one more season. Youngsters Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy have received valuable growth time this year while the team will say goodbye to soon-to-be free agent Miles Mikolas. The bullpen also needs some work. Bloom has plenty on his plate in his first offseason in charge. — Rogers
Record: 75-84
Previous ranking: 23
The 2025 season was a nightmare littered with injuries and underperformance for the Braves, a club that entered the year with World Series expectations. While most major players on the roster are under team control through 2026, one prominent figure is considering moving on: manager Brian Snitker. The 69-year-old skipper, whose contract expires after this season, has said he is considering retiring. If he does, Snitker’s 10-season run would conclude with seven postseason appearances and a World Series title in 2021. — Castillo
Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 24
The Marlins entered Game No. 158 on Wednesday still mathematically in postseason contention. The chances are remote, but staying alive this late is a win for an organization attempting to produce a consistent contender for the first time in franchise history. Never have the Marlins, despite two World Series titles in their 33-year history, reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons. They’re slowly stacking the building blocks. And, considering they moved Sandy Alcantara‘s start back to face the Mets this weekend, Miami is thirsting to play spoiler. — Castillo
Record: 75-83
Previous ranking: 21
All in all, it’s going to be a successful year for the A’s, who blew past their preseason over/under win total for the season this week. They boast the likely Rookie of the Year in Nick Kurtz and saw positive seasons from several offensive players not named Brent Rooker or Lawrence Butler, with the latter having a quiet season at the plate. Left fielder Tyler Soderstrom and catcher Shea Langeliers count as those success stories.
On the other hand, the pitching staff will finish in the bottom five of the majors in ERA — the hitter-friendly park in Sacramento didn’t help. Perhaps with a year under their belt there, the front office will have a better understanding of what kinds of arms might be successful until the team moves to Las Vegas. That should be their sole focus this winter. — Rogers
Record: 74-84
Previous ranking: 22
Adley Rutschman‘s 2025 season is atop the list of the disappointments in a lost season for the Orioles. The two-time All-Star catcher continued his regression from last year and landed on the IL for two long stints because of oblique strains on each side. Baltimore activated him Monday for the season’s final six games. It could be his final week in an Orioles uniform; with Samuel Basallo‘s emergence — and contract extension — people around baseball wonder if Baltimore will look to trade Rutschman this offseason. — Castillo
Record: 69-89
Previous ranking: 27
Bubba Chandler is getting his feet wet during garbage time for the Pirates, and that could pay dividends for them next season. Add the return of Jared Jones early next year and Pittsburgh once again looks formidable on the mound. But what will general manager Ben Cherington do to help his offense? It’s a yearly question for the Pirates, as they are set to finish last in run scoring after ranking 24th the previous season. They’re going in the wrong direction. Their third baseman are last in OPS and their catchers aren’t much better. Improvements across the board are needed. — Rogers
Record: 71-87
Previous ranking: 26
The Angels again need to find some productive pitchers this offseason, as they rank near the bottom of the majors in ERA this season. It seems to be a yearly thing, as they ranked 26th in that category in 2024 and 23rd in 2023. Their starting staff has mostly been the culprit, but change is in the air as Kyle Hendricks is almost assuredly retiring while Tyler Anderson is set to become a free agent. One bright spot has been closer Kenley Jansen, who is 28-of-29 in save opportunities. But if a 37-year-old closer on a team out of contention is your lone bright spot, you probably have bigger problems. That’s the case for the Angels heading into the winter. — Rogers
Record: 68-90
Previous ranking: 25
It was only two years ago that the Twins ended a prolonged postseason winless drought and advanced past the wild-card round in a thrilling 2023 season. Now, it seems like two decades ago. The 2025 season was a miserable one for the Twins’ faithful, punctuated by a trade-deadline selloff that felt worse only a couple weeks later when the Pohlad family announced it would maintain ownership of the franchise, angering a fan base that clamored for a replacement who would spend more money. Byron Buxton had a really nice year and Joe Ryan was not traded. Outside of that, there isn’t much to cling to in Minneapolis these days. — Gonzalez
Record: 58-100
Previous ranking: 28
The bar for progress was obviously low after the White Sox set the modern-day record for losses last year, but the franchise nonetheless took some steps forward this season. They played a more competitive brand of baseball, particularly after the All-Star break. Prospects such as Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth showed encouraging signs. Journeymen pitchers such as Shane Smith, Mike Vasil and Jordan Leasure found success. They still have a long way to go, but the White Sox are in a better position than they were at this time last year. That’s … something, at least. — Gonzalez
Record: 65-94
Previous ranking: 29
Pressing questions, from the top down, face the Nationals this offseason after they took a substantial step back in 2025. One was answered this week when the organization decided to hire Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Tobino to run its baseball operations department as Mike Rizzo’s replacement.
Next up: naming a manager. Looming in the backdrop is a more critical matter: Will ownership decide to sell again? If not, will it invest the necessary resources — not just in free agency but in other departments — to build another winner? And then there’s also the question about the future of their local television deal. The Nationals have some young talent — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams have all been All-Stars — but this will effectively be a soft reset in Washington. — Castillo
Record: 43-115
Previous ranking: 30
Only six teams have ever finished a season with a run differential below minus-400, and all of them played before the 21st century. The Rockies are currently on pace to join them. They’ve won only four of 21 games in September and currently sport a run differential of minus-412. The modern-day record is minus-345, set by the 1932 Boston Red Sox. And though the Rockies won’t lose as many games as last year’s White Sox, they’ll probably be outscored by 100-plus more runs than Chicago was. How this gets fixed is anybody’s guess. — Gonzalez
Sports
MLB insiders predict the playoffs: Bold takes, dangerous teams and breakout stars
Published
11 hours agoon
September 25, 2025By
admin
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Multiple Contributors
Sep 25, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
With less than a week remaining until the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs, our baseball insiders are ready to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable October buzz across the industry — even before the final 12-team postseason field is set.
What is the boldest prediction we’ve heard from an MLB exec? How confident — or concerned — should fans of last year’s World Series participants, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, be? Will the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers turn stellar regular seasons into deep playoff runs? And which under-the-radar players and teams are scouts raving about? Here’s the latest intel our MLB experts are hearing as Jeff Passan, Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers, Jorge Castillo and Alden Gonzalez empty their notebooks.
What is the boldest prediction you’ve heard from an MLB exec or scout?
Passan: The Seattle Mariners are going to win the World Series. Perhaps at this point that does not register as bold, but let’s not forget the Mariners are 49 years into their existence and they’ve yet to make a World Series, let alone win one.
Three weeks ago, this would have been laughable, as Seattle had lost 15 of 21 and found itself 3½ games behind Houston. Now, the Mariners have a three-game cushion, plus the tiebreaker in the AL West, and are in possession of a first-round bye.
The home-field advantage would be decidedly advantageous to the Mariners, who are 48-27 at home. Lining up their excellent front-line starting pitching and giving some rest to well-worked regulars — especially Cal Raleigh — could do the Mariners good. And with the highest-scoring offense in the big leagues in September and a bullpen that has some of the best stuff in baseball, the Mariners have the ingredients to conquer a wide-open AL and hang with the star-studded rosters in the NL.
Olney: We always hear how the bullpen and bench are difference-makers in the postseason, and one evaluator sees a clear delineation between the Padres’ bullpen and the rest of the field. The Mariners’ have played well down the stretch, but their relief corps is taxed; the Dodgers will be MacGyvering to make their bullpen rubble work; the Phillies will be without Jose Alvarado; the Yankees’ group can be wildly inconsistent. The San Diego bullpen, on the other hand, is solid, even without Jason Adam.
Is that evaluator, then, ready to say the Padres will win the World Series, or even the National League? “Are you f—ing kidding me?” he replied. “I don’t think we can count anybody out this year. Even the Tigers — they’ve got [Tarik] Skubal.”
How much faith does the industry have in the Blue Jays and Brewers turning potential No. 1 seeds into World Series appearances?
Olney: The feedback I’m getting is that execs see reasonable paths through October for all of the contenders with perhaps the exception of the Astros, who are wrecked by injuries to Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena and Josh Hader.
As the case is made for the Blue Jays and Brewers, there is a consistent theme: these are teams that get guys on base, put the ball in play and pressure defenses. One evaluator said: “The Brewers just don’t play bad games — they might lose, but they are in every game.”
Rogers: There’s belief in both teams, but nobody is ready to declare either the favorite even as a potential top seed. Bo Bichette‘s injury came up in conversation as a detriment to the Blue Jays’ chances, and the latest pitching injuries were reasons to look elsewhere when it came to the Brewers. And this was the discussion among insiders before Brandon Woodruff was placed on the IL on Sunday.
Another talking point is that whichever team ends up with the best record in each league will do so by just a handful of wins — not enough to declare anyone the odds-on favorite next month.
Do MLB insiders think the Dodgers will turn it on in October again, as they did last season?
Gonzalez: They seem mixed. There are some — both inside and outside the Dodgers — who will tell you this group is deeper and more talented than the one that won it all last year. That their rotation is far superior. That their bullpen has the ability to be just as good, even if that hasn’t necessarily been the case during the regular season. That their lineup is probably still the best in the sport when it’s clicking.
But then there are those who continue to point out the obvious: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will go into October not knowing who to turn to for the final three outs of a game on any given night. It has gotten so bad — with Tanner Scott struggling, Blake Treinen reeling, Michael Kopech a mess, Kirby Yates unreliable, Brock Stewart hurt and few others outside of Alex Vesia stepping up — that Roki Sasaki is genuinely being considered for a high-leverage role. Just as much of a concern is the status of catcher and middle-of-the-order hitter Will Smith, who sustained a hairline fracture in his right hand near the end of arguably his best offensive season.
Passan: Everything Alden says is correct. And yet the absence of another team stepping into the vacuum the Dodgers have created allows them, in the minds of many, to maintain their status as the favorite.
Shohei Ohtani has been the best hitter in the sport in September, to say nothing of his 14⅔ shutout innings this month, including five hitless in a Sept. 16 start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Mookie Betts, who has not looked like Mookie Betts for much of the season, looks like Mookie Betts again. His home run stroke is back, and he’s tied with Juan Soto for the MLB lead in RBIs this month with 21.
In September, Dodgers hitters are tied for second in home runs and third in wOBA. The offense is a mammoth, even without Smith, and for all of the pitching questions Los Angeles carries, what resides in that clubhouse is enough talent to overcome them. This is the value of a deep team. There’s still enough to win another ring.
Do those in the game think the Yankees will make another deep October run?
Castillo: Yes, because the American League is wide open and the Yankees just might have the most talented roster, top to bottom, in the field. A National League front-office executive recently said he believes the Yankees are the favorite to win the pennant again because of their blend of talent, experience and ability to inflict damage on opposing pitchers. The Yankees lead the majors in runs scored and home runs. Their starting rotation has the second-lowest ERA in baseball since the trade deadline. Their bullpen is filled with relievers with real track records. The pieces are there for a run.
Olney: I think that’s easily envisioned, not only because the Yankees played in the last week of October just last year, but because the field is so wide open. But there are two problems cited constantly by evaluators with other teams.
No. 1: “They are a terrible defensive team,” said one AL coach, and he’s hardly alone in feeling that way. The Yankees push back on that notion, but that is certainly a perception. And No. 2: Their bullpen performance this year has been so erratic. The closer’s role has been passed around — what, a half-dozen times? — and Devin Williams‘ performance can range from pure dominance to total meltdown.
I bet if you gave truth serum to those in the Yankees’ organization, the general sentiment would be that they have no idea what to expect from this group in the playoffs.
Who do those in the game think could be this October’s most dangerous teams?
Rogers: The Mariners aren’t exactly flying under the radar anymore considering their recent win streak and series win in Houston, but some believe their pitching staff is just starting to peak, while others simply think they have prime-time players such as Randy Arozarena who have October upside. And that’s the word heard most often with the Mariners: They have tons of upside.
In the NL, the Chicago Cubs are starting to garner sleeper status. One executive mentioned that although their strengths don’t wow you at first glance, there’s no weakness to any part of their game. “If it’s the Cubs and Brewers in the division series,” he said, “can you pick a winner?”
Gonzalez: A current player who has been around awhile was trying recently to describe what it’s like being on the field at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia for a playoff game and couldn’t. The noise, he said, is deafening, unlike anything he had experienced anywhere else. His point was that the Phillies’ home-field advantage in October is more real than anybody else’s. And if there’s one team outside the reigning-champion Dodgers and the MLB-leading Brewers that sticks out in the minds of evaluators and players this coming month, it’s that one.
Even with Zack Wheeler out, the Phillies’ three lefty starters — Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo — are good enough to get it done. Their closer, Jhoan Duran, is considered almost impossible to hit. And then there’s the lineup littered with stars who have experience on the big stage and know this might be their best opportunity to win it all. The Phillies’ roster might be too expensive to be considered under the radar, but in what many consider to be a wide-open field, they’re the ones that come up in conversation most often as the most dangerous.
Who are some under-the-radar players with industry buzz as potential postseason stars?
Passan: None of the Reds’ elite young talent has postseason experience, and facing the Dodgers would be one hell of an introduction for shortstop Elly De La Cruz, right-hander Hunter Greene and left-hander Andrew Abbott. The latter two provide a whale of a one-two punch, especially in a best-of-three series, and if the Reds can hold off the Mets and Diamondbacks, the pitching matchups against Los Angeles would be tantalizing, regardless of whom the Dodgers choose among Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw. The first five have combined for a 1.69 ERA in September.
How Toronto chooses to use rookie Trey Yesavage in the postseason will be fascinating to see. The rare player to spend time at Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues in the same year, the 22-year-old right-hander, chosen 20th in the 2024 draft out of East Carolina, followed a dominant debut against Tampa Bay with a pedestrian outing against Kansas City. He has a mid-90s fastball that plays well high in the zone and a splitter that’s a gnarly complement.
Yesavage probably won’t start, but Toronto could piggyback him with a starter, slot him in a bulk role after an opener, deploy him as a multi-inning leverage weapon or have him eat an inning at a time. Whatever Toronto does, Yesavage, who has worked out of the bullpen in the minor leagues in anticipation of this, will be ready.
Castillo: Cal Raleigh — rightfully so — has attracted the shine in the Pacific Northwest this season, but the Mariners need their other All-Star position player to deliver in October if they’re going to play for the franchise’s first World Series title. And Julio Rodriguez has delivered since the All-Star break. Another slow start marred the center fielder’s overall numbers, but Rodriguez is slashing .295/.333/.570 with 17 home runs in the second half. His .903 OPS and elite defense registers as MVP-level production. Rodriguez was around for the Mariners’ last trip to the postseason in 2022, but the charismatic 24-year-old will have a chance to cement himself as one of the game’s superstars with a deep October run.
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