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Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly demands that he be given control of the whole of the Donbas as part – and only part – of his price for any peace deal with Ukraine.

The area referred to as “the Donbas” consists of two regions.

Russian forces currently occupy almost all of one of them – Luhansk – and about 70% of the other – Donetsk.

The Donbas is historically an important industrial area of Ukraine, where its coal mines and heavy industries are located, as well as many of its old arms manufacturing plants from the days when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.

The 30% of Donetsk that Ukrainian forces still hold, and would be required to give up under Mr Putin‘s demands, are very important to it for a number of reasons.

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The regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which make up the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, have been subject to fierce fighting
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The regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which make up the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, have been subject to fierce fighting

Politically, it is not lost on all Ukrainians that Russia‘s 2014 takeover of parts of the Donbas (about 30% of the territory by the end of that year) began in the city of Sloviansk in the northern part of the unconquered Donbas.

The Ukrainians liberated that city from Russian-backed forces and have held onto it since, and paid a high price in lives and money to keep it free.

The same applies to the other cities and villages still under Kyiv’s control in Donetsk. It would be a bitter blow to Ukraine, and possibly even precipitate the removal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy as president – to give up to Russia territory that Ukraine has fought so hard to retain for the last 11 years.

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Zelenskyy ‘not authorised’ to give up territories

But this area also has an immediate strategic importance for Kyiv.

The four significant cities in this area form a 50 to 60km “belt” of strong fortifications.

Even the Russian military refer to Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka as the “fortress cities” and all the villages and settlements between them are well-defended, making best use of the topographical features on which they are situated.

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If Ukrainian forces had to give up these strong positions they would not be able to withdraw westwards to other defensive positions anything like as strong.

In short, they would be ceding their best defensive positions to Russian forces who could then use them as a springboard for further attacks westwards towards the Dnieper River, which the Ukrainians would struggle to defend so easily.

The fact that Russian forces have been geographically close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk for so long without being able to take them tells its own story of the effectiveness of the “fortress cities” to hold out against Russian attacks.

Not least, there would be some advantage to Russia in gaining access to mineral fields across that part of the Donbas which incudes workable, large deposits of lithium and titanium non-ferrous metals, and also some large rare earth deposits running in a north-south geological strip along the border between Donetsk and the neighbouring region of Dnipropetrovsk.

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‘Putin does not want to stop the killing’

Doubts over the value of Putin ‘security guarantees’

Some US officials have spoken about the possibility of obtaining credible security guarantees from Russia in the event that Ukraine agrees to Moscow’s terms.

It is fair to say that there is near-unanimous opinion, both among the public in Ukraine and (with only a couple of notable but minor exceptions) among political leaders in Europe, that no guarantees Mr Putin might offer would be worth anything.

His record in European security matters since he took power in Moscow in 1999 is of continual bad faith, deception, and treaty-breaking.

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What to expect of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting

Russia guaranteed Ukrainian security in the Budapest Agreement of 1994 and then went on to conclude a Friendship Treaty with Ukraine in 1997 – but broke both of them by its first two invasions of Ukraine in 2014.

The Minsk Agreement and then a later “Minsk II”, followed that invasion to try to stabilise the situation.

But both of those agreements were broken very quickly by Russia.

Moscow claims these breaches were the fault of Kyiv, but the historical record gives that claim no credence.

On the eve of Russia’s full scale invasion on Ukraine in January/February 2022 Putin personally and repeatedly stressed to all the European leaders who contacted him that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine – until the day came when it did.

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The fact is, there is simply no documentary or confirmed evidence that Mr Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine are restricted to the Donbas region.

But there is abundant documentary and confirmed public evidence to the contrary – that under Mr Putin’s leadership, Russia intends to conquer all of Ukraine and reabsorb it into the Russian federation.

Any “guarantees” that Mr Putin might offer along the way to this ultimate objective ought to be regarded as merely tactical and short-term.

Since he has honoured literally none of his previous agreements in relation to any aspect of European security, his record suggests he will break any new security guarantees as soon as he sees an advantage in doing so.

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Trump achieves something remarkable, but will his ‘goldfish’ attention span stay the course?

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Trump achieves something remarkable, but will his 'goldfish' attention span stay the course?

Two things can be true at the same time – an adage so apt for the past day. 

This was the Trump show. There’s no question about that. It was a show called by him, pulled off for him, attended by leaders who had no other choice and all because he craves the ego boost.

Gaza deal signed – as it happened

But the day was also an unquestionable and game-changing geopolitical achievement.

World leaders, including Trump and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pose for a family photo. Pic: Reuters
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World leaders, including Trump and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pose for a family photo. Pic: Reuters

Trump stopped the war, he stopped the killing, he forced Hamas to release all the hostages, he demanded Israel to free prisoners held without any judicial process, he enabled aid to be delivered to Gaza, and he committed everyone to a roadmap, of sorts, ahead.

He did all that and more.

He also made the Israel-Palestine conflict, which the world has ignored for decades, a cause that European and Middle Eastern nations are now committed to invest in. No one, it seems, can ignore Trump.

Love him or loathe him, those are remarkable achievements.

‘Focus of a goldfish’

The key question now is – will he stay the course?

One person central to the negotiations which have led us to this point said to me last week that Trump has the “focus of a goldfish”.

Benjamin Netanyahu applauds while Trump addresses the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Pic: Reuters
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Benjamin Netanyahu applauds while Trump addresses the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Pic: Reuters

It’s true that he tends to have a short attention span. If things are not going his way, and it looks likely that he won’t turn out to be the winner, he quickly moves on and blames someone else.

So, is there a danger of that with this? Let’s check in on it all six months from now (I am willing to be proved wrong – the Trump-show is truly hard to chart), but my judgement right now is that he will stay the course with this one for several reasons.

First, precisely because of the show he has created around this. Surely, he won’t want it all to fall apart now?

He has invested so much personal reputation in all this, I’d argue that even he wouldn’t want to drop it, even when the going gets tough – which it will.

Second, the Abraham Accords. They represented his signature foreign policy achievement in his first term – the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Muslim world.

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Trump’s peace summit: As it happened

Back in his first presidency, he tried to push the accords through without solving the Palestinian question. It didn’t work.

This time, he’s grasped the nettle. Now he wants to bring it all together in a grand bargain. He’s doing it for peace but also, of course, for the business opportunities – to help “make America great again”.

Peace – and prosperity – in the Middle East is good for America. It’s also good for Trump Inc. He and his family are going to get even richer from a prosperous Middle East.

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Then there is the Nobel Peace Prize. He didn’t win it this year. He was never going to – nominations had to be in by January.

But next year he really could win – especially if he solves the Ukraine challenge too.

If he could bring his coexistence and unity vibe to his own country – rather than stoking the division – he may stand an even greater chance of winning.

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Trump warned his plan for future of Gaza ‘doesn’t make sense’

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Trump warned his plan for future of Gaza 'doesn't make sense'

One of the most high-profile and influential Palestinian politicians has told Sky News that Donald Trump is now “calling the shots” for Israel – and warned it “doesn’t make sense” to have a Western-led government ruling Gaza or the return of a “British mandate” under Sir Tony Blair.

Nasser al-Qudwa, 72, insisted Hamas should be involved in the territory’s future and that a new structure is needed that would allow a single authority to govern both the West Bank and Gaza.

Gaza deal signed – as it happened

It comes after Donald Trump hailed the signing of a peace deal in Egypt on Monday – the first phase of a plan to end the two-year Gaza war, which included the return of all 20 living Israeli hostages.

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Peace deal signed – but will it hold?

But there is much in the president’s 20-point proposal for Gaza still to be made real, chiefly a “board of peace” to oversee the creation of a transitional authority. It would be chaired by Mr Trump, who has floated a role for former UK prime minister Sir Tony and does not want a role for Hamas.

Al-Qudwa is strongly tipped for a return to the front line of politics, either within the existing Palestinian Authority or a new framework for Gaza.

Nasser al-Qudwa. Pic: Reuters
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Nasser al-Qudwa. Pic: Reuters

Since leaving his role as foreign minister for the Palestinian Authority in 2006, he has served in a variety of roles, including as a diplomat at the United Nations and as head of the Yasser Arafat Foundation.

Al-Qudwa is the nephew of Arafat, ex-chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, who died in 2004 aged 75.

Yasser Arafat at the White House in 1993. Pic: AP
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Yasser Arafat at the White House in 1993. Pic: AP

Trump’s proposal ‘doesn’t make sense’

Al-Qudwa has just been welcomed back into the central committee of Fatah, which runs the Palestinian Authority, the governing body of the West Bank.

Asked how he feels about the prospect of an international body ruling Gaza, including both Mr Trump and Sir Tony, he told Sky News: “The Palestinian people do not deserve to be put under international trusteeship or guardianship.

“And definitely it does not deserve to be put on the British mandate again.

“The whole notion that you are bringing a Western land to build a lot in Gaza after all these sacrifices and all this bloodshed, it doesn’t make sense.”

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Blair asked about Gaza peace board

Netanyahu ‘not calling the shots’

Al-Qudwa is a strong advocate for a two-state solution and says the only way to stem the anger of Palestinian youths “is to give them a better life”.

Asked if he was confident Israel would observe the ceasefire and move into the second phase of the Trump plan, Al-Qudwa said: “I don’t trust anybody.

“But, to be frank with you, I don’t think it’s the Israeli leader that’s calling the shots.

“I think it’s Mr Donald Trump. And he has promised that repeatedly.

“It’s going to be difficult because the second phase is going to be more difficult. But I do hope that it’s going to happen because we need it to.”

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Trump asks Israel’s president to pardon Netanyahu

A role for Hamas

Al-Qudwa wants a new unitary governing body for the West Bank and Gaza “that is organically linked… to ensure the territorial integrity and the unity of the Palestinian people”.

He said under his model, Hamas would be invited to be part of the political landscape. It would be a different form of Hamas – a political party rather than an organisation with a military wing.

“It would be a different Hamas,” said al-Qudwa. “What is missing from the debate is the serious, comprehensive positions. I spoke about ending the role of Hamas in Gaza, ending the control of Hamas over Gaza in all its forms, political, administrative, as well as security, which means the official body needs to have control over weapons.

“And then I think it’s very right to transform into a political party and then participate in the Palestinian political life, including elections under Palestinian law enforcement.”

Donald Trump and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Pic: Reuters

Despite being closely linked to a future role in Gaza, al-Qudwa, who was born in Khan Younis in the south of the strip, said you would have to be “crazy” to want to work in the territory now.

He cast doubt over the plan to have elections within a year of the war coming to an end, saying it was impossible to imagine how you could hold such a logistically demanding event in a ruined country like Gaza.

Israel’s war in Gaza, launched following the killing of 1,200 people and capture of 251 more by Hamas during its October 7 attacks, has seen more than 67,000 Gazans killed, according to Palestinian health officials. Its figures don’t differentiate between civilians and combatants but says around half of the victims are women and children.

But al-Qudwa pointedly refused to deny speculation about his future ambitions.

Asked if he would be interested in becoming the next president of the Palestinian Authority, after Mahmoud Abbas, al-Qudwa simply smiled.

“There is no vacancy,” he said.

“That’s not a no,” I suggested. “It’s also not a yes,” he replied.

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West Bank prisoner releases expose deeper wounds

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West Bank prisoner releases expose deeper wounds

When the bus came into view, there was a surge of expectation and a rush of people.

Everyone wanted to get a view, to see through the windows, to see if they could spot a familiar face, or a relative, or a friend.

Gaza deal signed – as it happened

These were the people being sent back to the West Bank as part of the ceasefire deal – the people exchanged for the hostages.

The welcome they got was chaotic and joyful, just like previous prisoner releases. But there was something different this time – a changed, charged atmosphere and a heavier police presence.

Palestinians in Ramallah greet relatives released from Israeli prisons. Pic: AP
Image:
Palestinians in Ramallah greet relatives released from Israeli prisons. Pic: AP

And as the minutes passed by, the sense of joy was also pockmarked by pockets of utter sadness.

At first, it was a mistake. We saw a woman in floods of tears watching as prisoners filed off the two buses, showing victory signs at the waiting crowds. She had come to meet a cousin, but was sure that somehow he had been missed out and left behind. Her tears flowed until, some time later, she found him.

But others were not so fortunate. Overnight, the Israeli authorities had decided to increase the number of prisoners deemed dangerous enough to be denied a return to the West Bank.

Instead, this group, which makes up the majority of the 250 released prisoners, was taken to Gaza and released. Then they get the choice of whether to stay in Gaza or to be deported to another country – possibly Egypt or Turkey.

It is one thing to be taken back to Gaza if you are Gazan. But for the prisoners who come from the West Bank, and who are confronted by the apocalyptic wasteland left behind by war, it is a ticket to deportation, and the knowledge they can never return to their homeland.

You can only get to the West Bank by going through Israeli checkpoints or passport checks. And, clearly, having been deported, you won’t be allowed back in.

And so it is that we see Ghadeer in floods of tears. She is a police officer, in her uniform, and she runs back to the sanctuary of her car, to cry.

A crowd gathers around a bus carrying released Palestinian prisoners. Pic: AP
Image:
A crowd gathers around a bus carrying released Palestinian prisoners. Pic: AP

‘Psychological terror’

Her sister Abeer is also here, and also distraught. Their brother, who they expected to collect, has been taken to Gaza. They did not know until they got here, and realised he had not emerged from the bus.

Her cousin, Yahya, is also here: “We got a call from my cousin last night, and then we got a written warning taped on our door saying that we weren’t allowed to celebrate.

“At midnight, they moved him south, and then to Gaza, all without our knowledge. We came here to see him, and we were shocked that he wasn’t on the bus.

“It is part of their playbook – psychological terror, playing with our emotions, and those of the prisoners.”

To Israel, the release of these prisoners has been a cause of soul-searching, criticised by some as a reckless action that frees terrorists. But for Palestinians, these prisoners are a blend of freedom fighters and political prisoners, some of whom have spent years in detention despite never facing criminal trial.

The prisoners have been told not to celebrate after their release, and these are warnings they take seriously. One man tells us: “I can’t talk, but I am happy.” Another simply says” “I can’t say anything today – come back tomorrow.”

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‘They are taking our soul’

But another tells us he is “ashamed” that it could have taken the death of so many people in Gaza to secure his release. Emotions run high.

Among the crowds, we see Aman Nafa. Her husband is Nael Barghouti, who has spent 45 years in prison – more than any other Palestinian prisoner – and is now in exile in Turkey. He’s banned from returning, she’s banned from visiting him.

I ask her about the ceasefire, and the chances of a new beginning between Israel and the Palestinians. She bristles.

“They don’t want any peace with us,” she says. “They just want to take the land. It’s like our soul – they are taking our soul. They are torturing us.”

I ask her about her emotions on a day when the focus of the world is on the return of the hostages.

“Double standards,” she says, “but the people around the world – they know what is happening in Palestine. We are not against Jewish people. We are against the Zionists who want to empty our land and take it.”

Acrimony, mistrust, and the fear of tomorrow are endemic among many in the West Bank. A ceasefire in Gaza has soothed some nerves, but, so far at least, it hasn’t addressed the fundamental problems.

And so the anxiety ripples onwards.

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