Analysts downplay AI bubble worries as Altman says some investors will be left ‘very burnt’
The artificial intelligence boom that Sam Altman helped ignite with ChatGPT in late 2022 is starting to make even him uneasy.
Startups with little more than a pitch deck are raising hundreds of millions. Valuations have become “insane.” Capital is chasing a “kernel of truth” with feverish speed.
The OpenAI CEO still believes the long-term societal upside of AI will outweigh the froth, and he’s ready to keep spending in pursuit of that goal.
“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes,” he said at a recent dinner with reporters. “Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes.”
He repeated the word ‘bubble‘ three times in 15 seconds, then half-joked, “I’m sure someone’s gonna write some sensational headline about that. I wish you wouldn’t, but that’s fine.”
While Altman warned that valuations are now out of control, he’s ready to shell out on more infrastructure.
“You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on datacenter construction in the not very distant future,” Altman said. “And you should expect a bunch of economists wringing their hands, saying, ‘This is so crazy, it’s so reckless,’ and we’ll just be like, ‘You know what? Let us do our thing.'”
OpenAI is already looking beyond Microsoft Azure’s cloud capacity, and is shopping around for more.
The company signed a deal with Google Cloud this spring and, according to Altman, OpenAI is “beyond the compute demand” of what any one hyperscaler can offer.
“You should expect us to take as much compute as we can,” he added. “Our bet is, our demand is going to keep growing, our training needs are going to keep going, and we will spend maybe more aggressively than any company who’s ever spent on anything ahead of progress, because we just have this very deep belief in what we’re seeing.”
It’s not just OpenAI. All the megacaps are trying to keep up.
In their most recent earnings, tech’s biggest names all raised capital expenditure guidance to keep pace with AI demand: Microsoft is now targeting $120 billion in full-year capital expenditures, Amazon is topping $100 billion, Alphabet raised its forecast to $85 billion, and Meta lifted the high end of its capex range to $72 billion.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” that demand for AI infrastructure has grown 30% to 40% in the last months, calling the capex surge a validation moment for the sector.
Ives acknowledged “some froth” in parts of the market, but said the AI revolution with autonomous is only starting to play out and we are in the “second inning of a nine-inning game.”
“The actual impact over the medium and long term is actually being underestimated,” he said.
Citi’s Rob Rowe, speaking Monday on CNBC’s “Money Movers,” pushed back on comparisons between today’s AI boom and the dotcom bubble.
“Back then, you had a lot of over-leveraged situations. You didn’t have a lot of companies that had earnings,” Rowe said. “Here you’re talking about companies that have very solid earnings, very strong cash flow, and they’re funding a lot of this growth through that cash flow. So in many respects, it’s a little different than that.”
He added that the current wave of AI investment is being driven by structural shifts in the global economy, particularly the rapid growth of digital services, which now account for a large share of global exports. Also unlike the dotcom cycle of the late 90s, companies today are funding their infrastructure spending with strong cash flow rather than relying on debt.
Still, concerns about overheating have been mounting.
Alibaba co-founder Joe Tsai pointed to worrying signs in the AI sector well before the hyperscalers raised their annual capex guidance during the latest earnings prints.
In March, he warned of a brewing AI bubble in the U.S.
Speaking at HSBC’s Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Tsai said he was astounded by the scale of datacenter spending under discussion. Tsai questioned whether hundreds of billions in spending is necessary, and flagged concern about companies starting to build datacenters “on spec,” without clear demand.
Altman, for his part, sees these cycles as part of the natural rhythm of technological progress.
The dotcom crash wiped out scores of companies, but still gave rise to the modern internet. He expects AI to follow a similar path: a few high-profile wipeouts, followed by a lasting transformation.
“I do think some investors are likely to get very burnt here, and that sucks. And I don’t want to minimize that,” he said. “But on the whole, it is my belief that… the value created by AI for society will be tremendous.”
WATCH: OpenAI staffer reportedly to sell $6 billion in stock to SoftBank and other investors
Anthropic and Google officially announced their cloud partnership Thursday, a deal that gives the artificial intelligence company access to up to one million of Google’s custom-designed Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs.
The deal, which is worth tens of billions of dollars, is the company’s largest TPU commitment yet and is expected to bring well over a gigawatt of AI compute capacity online in 2026.
Industry estimates peg the cost of a 1-gigawatt data center at around $50 billion, with roughly $35 billion of that typically allocated to chips.
While competitors tout even loftier projections — OpenAI’s 33-gigawatt “Stargate” chief among them — Anthropic’s move is a quiet power play rooted in execution, not spectacle.
Founded by former OpenAI researchers, the company has deliberately adopted a slower, steadier ethos, one that is efficient, diversified, and laser-focused on the enterprise market.
A key to Anthropic’s infrastructure strategy is its multi-cloud architecture.
The company’s Claude family of language models runs across Google’s TPUs, Amazon’s custom Trainium chips, and Nvidia’s GPUs, with each platform assigned to specialized workloads like training, inference, and research.
Google said the TPUs offer Anthropic “strong price-performance and efficiency.”
“Anthropic and Google have a longstanding partnership and this latest expansion will help us continue to grow the compute we need to define the frontier of AI,” said Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao in a release.
Anthropic’s ability to spread workloads across vendors lets it fine-tune for price, performance, and power constraints.
According to a person familiar with the company’s infrastructure strategy, every dollar of compute stretches further under this model than those locked into single-vendor architectures.
Google, for its part, is leaning into the partnership.
“Anthropic’s choice to significantly expand its usage of TPUs reflects the strong price-performance and efficiency its teams have seen with TPUs for several years,” said Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian in a release, touting the company’s seventh-generation “Ironwood” accelerator as part of a maturing portfolio.
Claude’s breakneck revenue growth
Anthropic’s escalating compute demand reflects its explosive business growth.
The company’s annual revenue run rate is now approaching $7 billion, and Claude powers more than 300,000 businesses — a staggering 300× increase over the past two years. The number of large customers, each contributing more than $100,000 in run-rate revenue, has grown nearly sevenfold in the past year.
Claude Code, the company’s agentic coding assistant, generated $500 million in annualized revenue within just two months of launch, which Anthropic claims makes it the “fastest-growing product” in history.
While Google is powering Anthropic’s next phase of compute expansion, Amazon remains its most deeply embedded partner.
The retail and cloud giant has invested $8 billion in Anthropic to date, more than double Google’s confirmed $3 billion in equity.
Still, AWS is considered Anthropic’s chief cloud provider, making its influence structural and not just financial.
Its custom-built supercomputer for Claude, known as Project Rainier, runs on Amazon’s Trainium 2 chips. That shift matters not just for speed, but for cost: Trainium avoids the premium margins of other chips, enabling more compute per dollar spent.
Wall Street is already seeing results.
Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Alex Haissl estimated that Anthropic added one to two percentage points to AWS’s growth in last year’s fourth quarter and this year’s first, with its contribution expected to exceed five points in the second half of 2025.
Wedbush’s Scott Devitt previously told CNBC that once Claude becomes a default tool for enterprise developers, that usage flows directly into AWS revenue — a dynamic he believes will drive AWS growth for “many, many years.”
Google, meanwhile, continues to play a pivotal role. In January, the company agreed to a new $1 billion investment in Anthropic, adding to its previous $2 billion and 10% equity stake.
Critically, Anthropic’s multicloud approach proved resilient during Monday’s AWS outage, which did not impact Claude thanks to its diversified architecture.
Still, Anthropic isn’t playing favorites. The company maintains control over model weights, pricing, and customer data — and has no exclusivity with any cloud provider. That neutral stance could prove key as competition among hyperscalers intensifies.
WATCH: Anthropic’s Mike Krieger on new model release and the race to build real-world AI agents
Redwood Materials, founded by former Tesla CTO and cofounder JB Straubel, has raised $350 million in new funding to scale its US-made battery storage systems and critical materials operations. The company is ramping up to meet surging demand from AI data centers and the clean energy sector.
The oversubscribed Series E round was led by Eclipse, with participation from NVentures, NVIDIA’s venture capital arm, and other new strategic investors.
As global supplies tighten, the US is racing to secure domestic production of critical materials like lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper. In July, Redwood and GM signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to turn new and second-life GM batteries into energy storage systems. Redwood launched a new venture in June called Redwood Energy that repurposes both new and used EV battery packs into fast and cost-effective energy storage systems.
Redwood says large-scale battery storage is the fastest and most scalable way to enable new AI data center rollout while unlocking stranded generation capacity and stabilizing the grid. Battery storage also helps industrial facilities electrify and balance renewable energy output. The company aims to deliver a new generation of affordable, US-built energy storage systems designed to serve the grid, heavy industry, and AI data centers, reducing dependence on imported Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries.
Redwood will use the new capital to expand energy storage deployments, refining and materials production capacity, and its engineering and operations teams.
Read more: Redwood is repurposing GM’s EV batteries into energy storage
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Environment
Rivian to lay off about 4% of staff to possibly lean down ahead of 2026 R2 launch [Update]
![Rivian to lay off about 4% of staff to possibly lean down ahead of 2026 R2 launch [Update]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/07/Rivian-R2-pre-orders.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
A report this morning detailed American EV automaker Rivian’s plans to lay off a portion of its current workforce as it tries to conserve cash while gearing up for the launch of its newest model, the R2, next year.
Update 10/23/25: As promised, Rivian followed up with more details of this morning’s report regarding layoffs. The following letter from Rivian founder and CEO, RJ Scaringe, was sent out to the automaker’s workforce moments ago:
Hi Team,
I am writing to share a difficult update.
With the launch of R2 in front of us and the need to profitably scale our business, we have made the very difficult decision to make a number of structural adjustments to our teams. These changes result in a reduction in the size of our team by roughly 4.5%.
These are not changes that were made lightly. With the changing operating backdrop, we had to rethink how we are scaling our go-to-market functions. This news is challenging to hear, and the hard work and contributions of the team members who are leaving are greatly appreciated.
To ensure we move forward with clarity, I want to summarize the areas most impacted.
- Streamlining the Customer Journey: To provide a seamless experience for our customers, we are integrating the Vehicle Operations workstreams into the Service organization to create fewer customer handoffs and clearer ownership. We are also integrating the Delivery and Mobile Operations into the Sales organization to ensure the purchase experience is as seamless as possible with a single touchpoint throughout the entire sales process and to delivery.
- Elevating Our Marketing Efforts: Historically we have had multiple functions that collectively capture what would typically be housed in a single marketing organization. We have made the decision to form a single marketing organization, and while we recruit our first Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), I will be acting as Interim CMO. Our Marketing Experiences team, led by Denise Cherry, and the Creative Studio team, led by Matt Soldan, will both report directly to me for now.
These changes are being made to ensure we can deliver on our potential by scaling efficiently towards building a healthy and profitable business. I am incredibly confident in R2 and the hard work of our teams to deliver and ramp this incredible product.
Thanks again everyone.
RJ
Not much backstory here, so we’ll get right into it.
A report from the Wall Street Journal this morning shared brief details of Rivian’s layoff plans, which could affect approximately 4% of the current staff. At the end of 2024, Rivian’s workforce tally sat around 15,000 people, so the reported layoff could affect as many as 600 individuals, possibly more.
Other outlets have pointed out that EV automakers like Rivian have faced a tougher market following the end of the $7,500 federal tax incentive. While that may be true to a certain extent, most of Rivian’s R1 variants didn’t qualify, unless it was a lease, and the automaker has deployed its own incentive programs.
In fact, Rivian’s Q3 2025 deliveries exceeded expectations. It remains speculative at this point until we receive an official statement from Rivian explaining the plans to lay off staff, but this could be a preemptive decision based on market forecasts.
Furthermore, Rivian is closer than ever to launching R2 in 2026, which has the makings of becoming a bestseller in the EV industry if sales match a mere portion of the hype surrounding it. The layoffs could also be a lean-down to conserve funds through the home stretch of that development process before beefing back up again in 2026 or 2027 when demand is (ideally) higher.
We really do not and will not know the reasoning behind the decision until Rivian shares more information.
We reached out to Rivian for comment and were told the automaker will have more to share this afternoon. We will update this story as new information becomes available.
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