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Media days are over. The polls are out. Early reports are that your team is looking absolutely fantastic in fall camp — they have lots of physicality, and the competition levels are off the charts!

We’ve passed most of the mile markers in college football’s long offseason, and the first games are less than two weeks away. Let’s cross another landmark off the list: It’s time to release the final preseason SP+ rankings. If you’ve been following along this offseason, through the initial February release and May update, the top of the rankings won’t surprise you very much. But let’s take stock one last time before Irish Farmageddon (Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin) kicks off and the 2025 journey begins.

As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.

Here are the full rankings (overall, offense, defense and special teams) along with each team’s average projected win total and strength-of-schedule ranking.

Since the May rankings, I’ve continued to update rosters for late transfers and fall camp injuries. But the largest changes came from some tweaking on my end — some teams with especially noteworthy luck (good or bad) saw some shifts, and after quite a bit of experimenting, I ended up tamping down the overall top-to-bottom spread of points. Translation: The top teams’ ratings aren’t quite as high as they were in May.

Some noteworthy early projections:

  • Iowa State vs. Kansas State (-3.5): K-State by 4.8

  • Texas at Ohio State (-2.5): Buckeyes by 5.5

  • LSU at Clemson (-4.5): Clemson by 2.6

  • Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami: Irish by 1.4

  • Alabama (-13) at Florida State: Bama by 14.3

  • Auburn (-2) at Baylor: Auburn by 1.2

For better or worse, all of these are awfully close to the ESPN BET point spreads.

SP+ vs. conventional wisdom

As has become customary, there aren’t many huge differences between SP+ projections and the preseason polls. But there are still some differences worth noting.

(Note: Any references to poll rankings below come from mashing the point totals from the AP and Coaches polls into one ranking. That shouldn’t create much confusion since, well, the results of the AP and Coaches polls are quite similar.)

The teams the pollsters like more

Texas Longhorns (No. 1 in the polls, No. 5 in SP+). It’s pretty clear that poll voters are assuming greatness from Arch Manning, and that might be exactly what he delivers. But as I’ve written quite a bit this offseason, anything less than elite QB play might expose the fact that the Longhorns had a lot of holes to fill on the lines and in the receiving corps. Without an Arch Effect adjustment in the algorithm, SP+ sees the Horns as merely one of many potentially elite teams, not the most elite of the bunch.

Clemson Tigers (No. 5 in the polls, No. 10 in SP+). As we’ll see below, Clemson is projected to improve rather significantly this season. But since the Tigers have averaged only an SP+ ranking of 18.5 over the past four seasons — and needed major turnovers luck to win the ACC last year — major improvement simply brings them into the top 10. This is the year when we find out if Dabo Swinney can still build a program with national title upside. SP+ is skeptical.

Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 12 in the polls, No. 27 in SP+). The Illini went 5-1 in one-score games and finished 31st in SP+ despite the lofty 10-win season. Major experience should result in further improvement, but if the close-game bounces go the other way, they won’t come anywhere close to a top-15 AP finish.

The Big 12’s best in 2024. Arizona State (No. 11 in the polls, No. 30 in SP+), Iowa State (No. 21 in the polls, No. 31 in SP+) and BYU (No. 25 in the polls, No. 36 in SP+) went a combined 33-8 last season, 21-6 in conference play. But they were also a combined 15-5 in one-score games, and that’s awfully hard to replicate. All three are projected near the top of the nutty Big 12 again this season, but so are a lot of other teams that didn’t get the same bounces.


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The teams SP+ likes more

Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 8 in the polls, No. 2 in SP+) and Ole Miss Rebels (No. 18 in the polls, No. 9 in SP+). SP+ liked these two teams far more than their record suggested last year — Ole Miss was second at 10-3, Bama was fourth at 9-4 — so it probably isn’t a surprise that it still does. The Crimson Tide and Rebels went a combined 2-6 in one-score games and 17-1 in all others; their upside was spectacularly high, and that might still be the case, especially for Bama.

Michigan Wolverines (No. 14 in the polls, No. 8 in SP+). I’m struggling with this one. SP+ is basically giving the 2023 national champs the benefit of the doubt, and I’m on board with that when it comes to the Wolverines’ defense, even if projecting them to have the best defense in the country feels aggressive. But even projecting the offense 37th feels like a bit of a reach with another reset at QB, another round of turnover on the offensive line and very little proven in the skill corps. In this case, I feel like the pollsters might be closer to reality than SP+ is.

The SEC’s light heavyweights. Among Tennessee (No. 22 in the polls, No. 12 in SP+), Texas A&M (No. 20 in the polls, No. 13 in SP+), Oklahoma (No. 22 in the polls, No. 15 in SP+), Missouri (No. 31 in the polls, No. 20 in SP+) and Auburn (No. 33 in the polls, No. 22 in SP+), some of these teams are going to lose quite a few games and finish far closer to their poll rankings — if not below them — than their SP+ rankings. If nothing else, this pretty clearly spells out the difference between a power ranking such as SP+ and the sort of future-facing “Which teams are going to end up with the best records?” exercise a lot of poll voters inevitably deploy.

USC Trojans (No. 30 in the polls, No. 21 in SP+) and Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 34 in the polls, No. 25 in SP+). These two were a lower-class version of Bama and Ole Miss last season — they finished 23rd and 16th, respectively, in SP+, but they went 5-8 in one-score finishes and just 15-11 overall. USC should be pretty similar this season, but I must say I was confused by the almost entire lack of AP votes for Iowa. The offense should be set to improve further, and if we just assume the Hawkeyes will have another strong defense no matter what they lost last season (they’ve earned that benefit of the doubt), that sounds like a pretty solid team.


SP+ vs. 2024

Let’s add some context to the 2025 ratings above by laying out which teams’ ratings are projected to change the most from last year.

Largest projected improvement over 2024

Florida State Seminoles (up 13.2 points, 39th overall). Tell me now that FSU ends up either the No. 15 or No. 75 team in the country this year, and I’ll believe you. It isn’t supposed to be possible for a team to go 13-1 one year and 2-10 the next, so I have no idea what happens next.

Michigan (up 11.0 points, eighth overall). The Wolverines definitely get the benefit of the doubt here. And hey, the quarterback play almost literally can’t get worse.

Oklahoma Sooners (up 9.3 points, 15th overall). If the offense rebounds toward its historical norm, this will be a top-20 caliber team again very quickly.

Houston Cougars (up 8.5 points, 63rd overall). After fielding their worst team in 22 years, the Cougs are natural rebound candidates, especially with top-20 returning production.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (up 8.4 points, 29th overall). The Red Raiders spent big on their transfer class, and it bought them their first preseason AP ranking in 17 years. Can it differentiate them in the crowded Big 12?

Clemson (up 6.9 points, 10th overall). The Tigers have the most returning production in the country and are all but guaranteed to improve. But how much?

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (up 6.9 points, 127th overall). That’s right, a touchdown’s worth of improvement would only bring the Golden Eagles into the high 120s. But progress is still quite likely.

UCLA Bruins (up 6.8 points, 50th overall). I was a bit surprised by this one, if only because UCLA ranks 100th in returning production. But the Bruins’ recent history and reasonable recruiting pulls them upward a bit.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (up 6.3 points, 66th overall) and Michigan State Spartans (up 6.2 points, 65th overall). Two more “It probably can’t get worse” candidates.

Largest projected regression versus 2024

Bowling Green Falcons (down 12.9 points, 112th overall). Losing your head coach after fielding your best team in a decade is a bad sign, especially when paired with bottom-five returning production. I really like what Eddie George did at Tennessee State, though.

Marshall Thundering Herd (down 12.5 points, 99th overall). The Herd lost coach Charles Huff after fielding their best team in four years, and then a huge portion of the roster hit the transfer portal. Total reset.

Texas State Bobcats (down 12.2 points, 87th overall). The Bobcats are regression candidates primarily because they reached historic highs last year: They were 48th in SP+. It was the first time they had ever ranked higher than 70th. A 12-point drop, however, feels like a bit much.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (down 10.6 points, 104th overall). Lowest returning production in the country. That one’s pretty self-explanatory.

UNLV Rebels (down 10.4 points, 73rd overall). Making a coaching change, with an almost total roster flip after fielding their best ever FBS team? There’s some major regression potential here, even if the roster still has loads of upside (as does new head coach Dan Mullen).


Largest projected regression versus 2024 (Power Four edition)

The largest projected tumbles all come from the Group of 5 because, well, life’s pretty hard in the G5 at the moment. (See the returning production averages below.) But here are the five power-conference teams projected to fall the most.

Ole Miss (down 5.5 points, ninth overall). That the Rebels are projected to fall only to ninth says a lot about how highly rated they were last season. They have a lot to replace.

Indiana Hoosiers (down 5.4 points, 23rd overall). Recent history obviously drags Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers down a bit after last season’s incredible surge, but even if they settle in as merely a top-25 level program, that would be awfully impressive.

Ohio State Buckeyes (down 4.8 points, first overall). Ranking 89th in returning production is actually pretty good for a defending national champ, but some projected regression was inevitable, especially when combined with the tamping down of the top ratings that I mentioned above.

BYU Cougars (down 4.2 points, 36th overall). Losing quarterback Jake Retzlaff over the summer obviously put a late ding on the Cougars’ rating.

Oregon Ducks (down 3.7 points, seventh overall). The Ducks are 115th in returning production, 125th on offense. We’ll find out just how healthy Dan Lanning’s program is this season with that amount of turnover.


Conference power rankings and title odds

SP+ is a team ranking, but it can tell us a lot about conference expectations, too. Let’s walk through some of the averages and projections for each conference heading into the fall. Note: The title odds below are quite conservative — they take into account the possible volatility of each team’s projected rating, and teams with heavy transfer totals have even more volatility baked in. Only three projected conference leaders have a greater than 21% chance of a conference title, but maybe that makes sense considering only 22% of last year’s projected conference favorites won the crown.

1. SEC

Average rating: 15.6 (up 0.8 points, from 14.8 in 2024)

Average offensive rating: 33.3 (first)

Average defensive rating: 17.7 (first)

Average returning production percentage: 60.7% (second)

Conference title odds​: Alabama 13%, Georgia 12%, Texas 11%, Ole Miss 9%, LSU 8%, Tennessee 7%, Texas A&M 7%, Oklahoma 7%, South Carolina 6%, Florida 5%, Missouri 5%, Auburn 4%, Arkansas 3%, Kentucky 2%, Mississippi State 1%, Vanderbilt 1%

If Arch Manning is anything less than the best player in college football, this race could be utterly incredible. Texas, Bama and Georgia having only a combined 36% title chance feels particularly conservative, but with as many close games as we might see this season, something wild is on the table.

2. Big Ten

Average rating: 9.6 (up 1.6 points)

Average offensive rating: 29.1 (fourth)

Average defensive rating: 19.4 (second)

Average returning production percentage: 56.1% (fourth)

Conference title odds​: Ohio State 19%, Penn State 15%, Michigan 13%, Oregon 13%, Iowa 6%, Illinois 5%, USC 5%, Indiana 5%, Nebraska 4%, Wisconsin 3%, Washington 3%, Minnesota 2%, UCLA 2%, Rutgers 2%, Michigan State 1%, Maryland 0.8%, Purdue 0.4%, Northwestern 0.3%

The Big Ten is typically more top-heavy than the SEC, with more dead weight at the bottom. That’s reflected here — the top four teams have a combined 60% title chance, which again feels low but is still far higher than what we see from the SEC.

3. Big 12

Average rating: 7.1 (up 1.8 points)

Average offensive rating: 31.3 (third)

Average defensive rating: 24.2 (third)

Average returning production percentage: 61.4% (first)

Conference title odds​: Kansas State 14%, Utah 9%, Arizona State 9%, TCU 9%, Texas Tech 8%, Iowa State 7%, BYU 6%, Baylor 6%, Colorado 5%, Kansas 4%, Houston 4%, Oklahoma State 4%, UCF 4%, West Virginia 4%, Arizona 3%, Cincinnati 3%

Only one team has even a 10% title chance, and everyone’s at 3% or higher. Hell yes. I love this conference. Even if it almost certainly won’t produce a major national title contender.

4. ACC

Average rating: 6.1 (up 1.0 points)

Average offensive rating: 31.4 (second)

Average defensive rating: 25.3 (fourth)

Average returning production percentage: 59.5% (third)

Conference title odds​: Clemson 19%, Miami 14%, SMU 10%, Louisville 9%, Florida State 6%, Virginia Tech 6%, NC State 5%, Duke 5%, Georgia Tech 5%, North Carolina 4%, Pitt 4%, California 4%, Virginia 3%, Boston College 3%, Syracuse 3%, Wake Forest 2%, Stanford 1%

I expected Clemson to be higher here, but games against the No. 3, 4 and 5 contenders (including a road trip to Louisville) do provide at least a little bit of danger. And in a Clemson-Miami ACC title game, the Tigers would be only two-point favorites based on current ratings.

5. American

Average rating: -7.5 (down 2.6 points)

Average offensive rating: 26.2 (fifth)

Average defensive rating: 33.7 (seventh)

Average returning production percentage: 49.9% (sixth)

Conference title odds​: Tulane 19%, Memphis 17%, Navy 12%, Army 11%, UTSA 11%, USF 8%, North Texas 6%, East Carolina 5%, FAU 2%, UAB 2%, Rice 2%, Tulsa 1%, Temple 1%, Charlotte 0.8%

Tulane deserves to start out ahead of the pack, but with so many new players, both the Green Wave and No. 2 pick Memphis could see a wide range of outcomes. We aren’t that many bounces away from chaos.

6. Sun Belt

Average rating: -8.4 (down 3.0 points)

Average offensive rating: 24.8 (sixth)

Average defensive rating: 33.2 (sixth)

Average returning production percentage: 46.5% (eighth)

Conference title odds​: James Madison 20%, Georgia Southern 10%, Louisiana 10%, South Alabama 9%, Coastal Carolina 7%, Troy 7%, Texas State 7%, Appalachian State 7%, Marshall 6%, Old Dominion 5%, Arkansas State 5%, Georgia State 3%, Louisiana-Monroe 3%, Southern Miss 2%

JMU probably should have made the conference title game last year and projects quite well. But if the Dukes drop the ball again, any of about eight different teams could take advantage like Marshall did in 2024.

7. Mountain West

Average rating: -9.0 (down 1.7 points)

Average offensive rating: 23.4 (seventh)

Average defensive rating: 32.4 (fifth)

Average returning production percentage: 46.7% (seventh)

Conference title odds​: Boise State 37%, UNLV 14%, San Jose State 10%, Fresno State 8%, Colorado State 6%, Air Force 6%, San Diego State 5%, Hawaii 4%, Wyoming 4%, Utah State 3%, Nevada 2%, New Mexico 2%

Perhaps not surprisingly, BSU is quite easily the single biggest conference title favorite in 2025. But with so much upside and downside, UNLV is a major wild card.

8. Conference USA

Average rating: -14.0 (down 1.5 points)

Average offensive rating: 19.9 (eighth)

Average defensive rating: 33.9 (ninth)

Average returning production percentage: 50.8% (fifth)

Conference title odds​: Liberty 27%, Western Kentucky 17%, Jacksonville State 12%, Louisiana Tech 10%, Sam Houston 9%, UTEP 6%, Middle Tennessee 6%, New Mexico State 6%, Florida International 5%, Kennesaw State 4%. (Delaware and Missouri State are ineligible.)

Like JMU, Liberty blew a great opportunity last year, but with solid returning production numbers the Flames start out atop the CUSA pile again.

9. MAC

Average rating: -14.2 (down 4.4 points)

Average offensive rating: 19.5 (ninth)

Average defensive rating: 33.8 (eighth)

Average returning production percentage: 41.1% (ninth)

Conference title odds​: Toledo 26%, Ohio 15%, Buffalo 12%, Miami (Ohio) 11%, Northern Illinois 8%, Bowling Green 6%, Eastern Michigan 6%, Western Michigan 5%, Central Michigan 5%, Ball State 2%, UMass 2%, Kent State 1.7%. (Akron is ineligible.)

With so many MAC teams wrecked by attrition, Toledo starts out as a comfortable favorite. But the Rockets have fallen short as favorites quite a few times before.


Final 2025 returning production rankings

Throughout the offseason, I post updates of my returning production rankings, which (a) are based on percentages that correlate most strongly to year-to-year improvement and regression and (b) include the production of incoming transfers. Here are the final numbers that will be used for 2025:

The major story of returning production in 2025 is how drastically the number has shrunk in recent years.

  • 2021 national average: 76.7%

  • 2022 national average: 62.9%

  • 2023 national average: 60.2%

  • 2024 national average: 59.9%

  • 2025 national average: 53.2%

The average fell for both power conferences (from 65.3% in 2024 to 59.4%) and the Group of 5 (from 54.9% to 47.0%). Obviously COVID eligibility had something to do with this — after everyone got an extra year of eligibility following the 2020 season, it has taken a while for those extra players to cycle out. But considering the national average tended to hover around 62-63% in the years before COVID, it’s clear there’s something else going on here, too.

That something else: the transfer portal. Obviously. The churn continues to grow each year, and it continues to hit the Group of 5 much harder, both because a) G5 stars are getting plucked away by power conference programs en masse and b) production from FCS and lower divisions — from which G5 teams might be more likely to pluck — only gets half-credit in the formula.

Based on the current returning production calculation, five of the nine lowest totals since 2022 are from 2025:

  • 2022 Nevada (22%) — rating fell by 23.9 points

  • 2025 Jacksonville State (28%) – ???

  • 2022 Hawaii (29%) — rating fell by 16.8 points

  • 2025 Ball State (29%) – ???

  • 2023 Kent State (30%) — rating fell by 13.1 points

  • 2025 Marshall (30%) – ???

  • 2024 Troy (30%) — rating fell by 16.4 points

  • 2025 Utah State (31%) – ???

  • 2025 BGSU (31%) – ???

  • 2023 UAB (31%) — rating fell by 11.6 points

Recent history suggests Jax State, Ball State, Marshall, Utah State and Bowling Green will struggle to come anywhere close to last year’s levels. (Ball State might be an exception, as the Cardinals were already awfully bad.)

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Stanley Cup contender rankings: Who dethrones the Panthers, Oilers?

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Stanley Cup contender rankings: Who dethrones the Panthers, Oilers?

The NHL, especially in the salary cap era, is usually defined by change and upheaval — familiar contenders turning their rosters over, while new powers emerge in their place.

That’s why it was so striking to see the same two Stanley Cup finalists — the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers — in back-to-back seasons, the league’s first Cup rematch since 2008-09, and only the second since 1983-84. Add in Florida’s appearance in the 2023 Final as well, and the NHL hasn’t had fewer unique finalists over a three-year span (just three different teams) since 1954-56, when only the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens reached the Final in those three years.

This run of Panthers-Oilers dominance won’t last forever, and it almost certainly won’t survive past 2025-26 if Connor McDavid doesn’t re-sign with Edmonton after his current contract ends at the end of the year. But for now, ESPN BET’s preseason odds again list Florida (+300) as the East favorite and Edmonton (+400) as the West’s top pick, suggesting that another rematch is the likeliest outcome.

Of course, that’s only true until it’s not. So the question becomes: If it’s not Florida and Edmonton yet again, who’s next in line to face off for the Cup?

Let’s dive into the most plausible challengers from each conference, just waiting to skate through if the Panthers and/or Oilers slip up, plus a couple of up-and-coming teams who could crash the party as well.

Note: All odds below courtesy of ESPN BET.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Odds to make Final: +360 | Win Cup: +800

Why they haven’t broken through yet: It’s an excellent question that the Canes are still trying to answer. Despite making the postseason seven straight years, Carolina’s 44 playoff wins have never led to a Stanley Cup Final appearance — giving them the most victories amassed in such a stretch without getting there at least once, topping Toronto’s old record of 41 from 1998 to 2004.

Along the way, the team has made the Eastern Conference finals in two of the past three seasons, but couldn’t score enough to avoid a Florida sweep in 2023. And their goaltending, always a huge concern, couldn’t stop enough Panthers (most notably Sam Bennett) in 2025.

Why 2025-26 could be different: Carolina will once again ride with Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen in net, which is reason enough to wonder if things will be different from last year (when they combined for a .823 SV% in the Eastern Conference finals loss to Florida). But new forward Nikolaj Ehlers ought to provide an offensive charge, while trade addition K’Andre Miller and prospect Alexander Nikishin give this blue line — usually a big strength anyway — more youth and upside, especially if Miller can recapture his 2022-23 form after a downturn in recent years.

Otherwise, the Hurricanes are counting on their familiar puck-possession system to finally add up to victory against a Florida core that returns mostly intact from last year. We’ll see.


Odds to make Final: +650 | Win Cup: +1400

Why they haven’t broken through (recently): Tampa Bay certainly has broken through before, winning two Cups — in 2020 and 2021 — and reaching another Final in 2022. And just when it seemed like that dynastic run was winding down, the Lightning rebounded in 2024-25, with their best goals per game differential since 2018-19 (+0.91).

But, as in the 2019 postseason, that regular-season success didn’t translate. The Lightning were bounced in the first round by Florida in five games for the second straight year, a huge reversal from the old days of Bolts domination in the cross-state rivalry.

Why 2025-26 could be different: First and foremost, the Lightning continue to boast one of the league’s most talented cores, which offers reason to think they can get back to seriously contending for the Cup again. They lost little of consequence over the offseason — defenseman Nick Perbix was the only real departure — though they also added little, and a team that was the NHL’s fifth oldest in 2024-25 isn’t getting any younger.

Someday Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman and Jake Guentzel will slow down. But until then, this team still carries the potential to go toe-to-toe with Florida, even if the past two playoff results aren’t what Tampa Bay has experienced previously in that rivalry.


Odds to make Final: +850 | Win Cup: +1600

Why they haven’t broken through yet: So much depends on the availability of Jack Hughes. When Hughes last played more than 62 games in a season in 2022-23, the Devils ranked No. 4 leaguewide in goals per game; with him missing 20 games in each of the past two seasons, New Jersey’s ranking in that metric fell to 12th in 2023-24 and then 20th last season.

Along with that offensive slide, the team fell out of the playoffs in 2023-24 — costing coach Lindy Ruff his job — and lost in Round 1 to Carolina in five games a year ago, a disappointing end for a team that was third best in goal differential and third youngest (a promising combo!) back in 2022-23.

Why 2025-26 could be different: Hughes’ return to health at the start of 2025-26 camp has New Jersey eyeing a return to the potential of a few years earlier. The Devils have scored 3.13 GPG over the past two seasons with Hughes in the lineup, versus 2.93 without him, which would be the difference between 12th and 21st in the league in 2024-25.

To help them score even more, the Devils added Evgenii Dadonov this summer. Russian right wing Arseny Gritsyuk might be an interesting pickup as well. If they can resolve their contract impasse with Hughes’ brother Luke, the Devils could challenge for the East — but they’ll need to figure out how to solve a Carolina team that bounced them in 2023 and 2025.


Worth a flier?

Odds to make Final: +1200 | Win Cup: +3500

Ottawa finally broke its seven-year playoff drought in 2024-25 with a young core starring Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson and Shane Pinto, who were all 25 or younger a year ago.

The Senators are still learning how to win, but they’ll return that same young core — plus good young defenseman Jordan Spence — to see if they can improve further after last season’s 19-point upgrade in the standings.


Odds to make Final: +2800 | Win Cup: +5000

The Habs have made real progress in recent seasons — three straight campaigns of an improved goals differential — culminating in their first playoff berth since 2021. Nick Suzuki‘s 89 points were the most by a Canadien in nearly three decades, and Cole Caufield‘s 37 goals were the most by a Montreal player his age since 1989-90.

With that young duo leading the way, and an upgraded roster that added defenseman Noah Dobson and forward Zack Bolduc, Montreal may finally be on the verge of something big.


The rest of the East

Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000 to make Stanley Cup Final)
Washington Capitals (+1400)
New York Rangers (+1600)
Boston Bruins (+3300)
Columbus Blue Jackets (+3300)
Detroit Red Wings (+3300)
Philadelphia Flyers (+3300)
New York Islanders (+4000)
Buffalo Sabres (+6000)
Pittsburgh Penguins (+6000)


WESTERN CONFERENCE

Odds to make Final: +450 | Win Cup: +800

Why they haven’t broken through (recently): The Avs had one of the best teams in hockey history when they won the Cup in 2022, seemingly portending a run of future success in the same style the team enjoyed during the ’90s and 2000s.

Instead, they fell victim to the familiar attrition that champions face during the salary cap era, between injuries (Gabriel Landeskog) and departures (Darcy Kuemper, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky). Colorado has remained among the league’s better teams, but its goal differential has declined for four seasons running now.

Why 2025-26 could be different: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar aren’t slowing down. They’ve collectively posted 438 points over the past two seasons, the most in consecutive years by any forward/defenseman duo in more than three decades.

With that kind of talent at the core — bolstered with the return of trade deadline acquisition Brock Nelson and the veteran additions of Brent Burns and Victor Olofsson — the Avs may have another run in them despite losing to the Dallas Stars in consecutive postseasons.


Odds to make Final: +450 | Win Cup: +850

Why they haven’t broken through (recently): The Golden Knights were better on paper last regular season (+0.68 goal differential per game) than they were when they won the Cup — still the only team to beat Florida in its past 12 postseason series — in 2023 (+0.52).

But the playoff offense that once carried them has vanished, dropping from 4.00 goals per game in that Cup run to just 2.44 since, capped by back-to-back shutout losses to Edmonton in the second round last spring. The talent and depth have still been there, but the results have not quite followed.

Why 2025-26 could be different: The main reason for optimism in Vegas is that the Knights reeled in the biggest fish of the 2025 offseason, acquiring star winger Mitch Marner in a sign-and-trade from Toronto in late June. Marner has averaged 29 adjusted goals, 65 adjusted assists and 94 adjusted points per season since 2020-21, making him one of the most dangerous offensive threats (particularly among setup men) in the league.

While we’ve seen players take time to adjust to new systems and teammates, Marner will ease into his new situation alongside talents like Jack Eichel, which is a scary pairing to think about in the playoffs (where Marner’s struggles have tended to be overstated).


Odds to make Final: +475 | Win Cup: +1000

Why they haven’t broken through yet: Why, indeed? Much like Carolina, the Stars keep slamming into a wall just shy of the Cup Final: Dallas has piled up 29 playoff wins over the past three seasons — the most by a team in a three-year span without reaching the Final — and all it has yielded is back-to-back losses to Edmonton in the conference finals.

Some historic franchises with similar near misses eventually broke through, but the lingering question for the Stars is whether their current group can ever take the final step.

Why 2025-26 could be different: Mikko Rantanen will be with the team for an entire season, which can only help after the Finnish winger became the best player in NHL history to skate for three different teams in the same campaign (Avalanche, Hurricanes, Stars) a year ago.

Otherwise, the Stars also shuffled the deck a fair amount over the offseason, firing coach Pete DeBoer — bringing back former bench boss Glen Gulutzan — and undergoing the biggest net loss in goals above replacement of any team. That may not seem like cause for optimism at all, but the Panthers could tell you that sometimes a drastic shakeup in identity is exactly what a team needs to finally get over the hump.


Worth a flier?

Odds to make Final: +1000 | Win Cup: +2000

It might seem wild to think the Kings, of all teams, could dethrone the Oilers in the West — seeing as L.A. has now lost to Edmonton in four straight postseasons, becoming just the fourth team in any of the big four men’s leagues to drop four consecutive playoff matchups to the same opponent (without a head-to-head win preceding the streak).

However, the Kings remain intriguing for their mix of youth and experience. And not for nothing, their offseason additions included Corey Perry, whose team has made the Cup Final in five of the past six seasons.


Odds to make Final: +2000 | Win Cup: +4000

It isn’t very hard to get excited about the Mammoth as the next potential West contender. This was the league’s seventh-youngest roster a year ago — led by Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther, all 26 or younger — and the team improved its goal differential for the third consecutive season.

Adding to that foundation, Utah traded for talented forward JJ Peterka and signed veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt and forward Brandon Tanev during an offseason that was a net positive on talent added. Dating back to its Arizona days, this franchise has made the playoffs just once (2020) since 2012, but brighter days are on the horizon in Utah.


The rest of the West

Winnipeg Jets (+1200 to make Stanley Cup Final)
Minnesota Wild (+1700)
St. Louis Blues (+2200)
Vancouver Canucks (+3000)
Nashville Predators (+3300)
Calgary Flames (+4000)
Anaheim Ducks (+5000)
Seattle Kraken (+10000)
Chicago Blackhawks (+15000)
San Jose Sharks (+30000)

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From sketchbook to spotlight: The lifecycle of an Oregon uniform

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From sketchbook to spotlight: The lifecycle of an Oregon uniform

EUGENE, Or. — Inside the Marcus Mariota Performance Center, history dangles from wire hangers.

The glitz and glamour surrounding Oregon football is not immediately apparent. This is a practical place — a dimly lit, long hallway inside the second floor of the equipment room furnished with gray built-in closets — created not as a way to showcase, but rather to store the very thing that has become synonymous with the Ducks: their vast array of fabrics, colors and prints.

Among a sea of roughly 800 jerseys, there’s nearly every shade of green — from neon to emerald to forest to army. Here, black or white never look boring, and the yellow used over the years ranges from a Gatorade-colored hue to Cal gold. Splashes of pink, gray, brown, orange, chrome and blue complete the synthetic rainbow.

On this Saturday afternoon following Oregon’s win over Oklahoma State, football equipment administrator Kenny Farr thumbs through pages of dri-fit material and mesh as if flipping through a scrapbook. Every jersey has a story, every color and design a reason for existing at the time as well as an inevitable association that depends on something the style cannot control.

“Some of our best uniforms we’ve ever worn, we lost the games,” Farr said. “It’s hard to mention those, because they looked good, but we didn’t win the game. So it kind of goes down as a jersey I’ll try to forget about and move on to the next.”

Farr isn’t the man behind the jerseys, the designs or even the final decisions of what combinations make it out onto the field. But over the past 15 years, Farr has become a key cog in the enterprise that is Oregon’s uniforms. His role is part manager, part craftsman, part custodian and collector, as well.

“Kenny is the Godfather of Oregon football uniforms,” said Quinn Van Horne, one of the senior designers of Oregon’s latest generation of uniforms.

Throughout the past two and a half decades, as Oregon has cycled through nine different versions of its uniforms, nearly 50 iterations and countless more combinations, the fascination over its attire and the ripple effects it has caused inside and outside the program continue. While some teams have rarely wavered from their classic designs and colors over the years, the Ducks have pushed the envelope, creating a unique energy around their ensembles that attracts players and prompts other schools to try and emulate them.

“We don’t have the tradition that Ohio State or USC or Notre Dame or some of those blue bloods have,” Farr said. “So how do you counteract that? Well, you just go full steam ahead the other direction. Our tradition is to be untraditional; we’re going to always push the edge.”


BEFORE THERE WERE so many permutations of Oregon jerseys, before the well-oiled system that produces at least one new uniform every season and a brand-new set of designs every three years was set in place, the concept began with a simple question.

“How do you make a duck look cool?”

Rick Bakas was working for Nike in the mid-to-late ’90s under a subdivision called Team Sports, dedicated to apparel for professional and college teams.

Bakas, alongside a team of fellow designers who were overseen by Nike creative director — and father of Quinn — Todd Van Horne, had just redesigned the Denver Broncos’ uniforms. The success of that redesign, as well as the momentum Oregon created after its appearances in the 1995 Rose Bowl and the 1996 Cotton Bowl (the first game in which Oregon wore all Nike) led to founder Phil Knight and a cadre of Oregon alumni, including longtime Nike designer Tinker Hatfield, tasking Van Horne and his team with a mission: remake the Oregon Ducks.

As he did nearly every year, Bakas attended the Detroit Auto Show in search of inspiration. There, painted across the chassis of a concept car, Bakas found the key that unlocked everything: a type of paint called ChromaFlair, which gave off a sheen that changed colors.

“I was eating a sandwich out there by the lake, and I was feeding some bread to a mallard out there,” Bakas said. “I was looking at its head, and I was like, ‘That paint looks like this mallard’s head.'”

Bakas brought some of those green swatches of the ChromaFlair paint back to Oregon, took them into a studio and pulled out the darkest and the lightest possible versions; those became the core colors of the concept he and the team presented to Knight.

“It’s amazing how much that helped keep that futuristic feel as we got into the ‘O’ design,” Bakas said. “The project really gave us a chance to marry the two together where we could think about the entire head to toe, how everything was going to look.”

Van Horne believes that even though the color-changing helmets were one of the most important elements of the redesign, they wouldn’t have been complete without the iconic “O” — its inner outline shaped to replicate Hayward Field, Oregon’s track and field stadium, and the outer one mimicking the outline of Autzen Stadium.

The creator of that “O” logo remains in dispute — Van Horne credits Hatfield with the idea, while Bakas says it was his own — but there is no debate about its impact. When the Ducks walked out onto the field to open the 1999 season sporting new colors, with the brand-new “O” on their green ChromaFlair helmets, the paradigm of uniforms shifted.

“The players loved it,” Bakas said. “They were coming from yellow and green with a duck on loose-fitting jerseys. What we gave them was super futuristic, and they absolutely ate it up.”


FARR’S OFFICE PHONE had been ringing. Oregon had just lost 42-20 to Ohio State in the 2014 national championship while wearing a uniform combination that had not yet been featured that season — white jersey, black numbers and lettering, gray pants and a white helmet with silver wings.

“It looked great, but we didn’t win the game,” Farr said. “I had about 15 voicemails on my line the next morning, the next couple of days, of people blaming me, ‘We should have worn green! Why didn’t we wear green?’ And in my mind, I’m thinking, ‘We could have worn any color. I don’t know if we were going to tackle Ezekiel Elliot any better.'”

While it was head coach Mike Bellotti who welcomed the original redesign, it was not until the arrival of Chip Kelly in the late 2000s and through 2012 that Oregon’s sartorial flair truly matched its fast and furious style of play. More uniform combos and a 46-7 record under Kelly supercharged a frenzy, not just around the team’s on-field success, but also around its next iterations of uniforms.

“Winning on a national stage helped so much,” Van Horne said. “That’s when we really dialed up the notion of looking different every game and different combinations and working with the athletes on scripting [uniforms] and even scripting the fans.” It all led to the notion of a uniform release as an event that both Oregon fans and even college football enthusiasts speculated about. The result was an insatiable desire for a wow factor to go with every drop.

“Fans’ expectations are so high for something new and cool, like you’re going to have some groundbreaking uniform that’s never been done before every single game,” Farr said. “But that’s not reality. I would say the last probably six or seven years is really where I got the sense of there’s some weeks where some fans are disappointed because they’re expecting us to have a helmet or a jersey with LED lights in it, and we didn’t do that.”

Farr has found that sometimes, more is less, and most Ducks fans will notice small splashes just as much as they will fixate on what they think of a certain jersey-pant combination.

Sometimes, the splash can be a custom cleat, like the Ducks did last season for the Rose Bowl, or what they’re doing against Penn State this week with exclusive glow-in-the-dark cleats, gloves and accessories. Often, Farr looks to the helmet — the only piece of the outfit he can customize on a weekly basis — as a way to add something new, even if it means an inordinate amount of work for his staff of one assistant and roughly 16 students.

When Oregon faced Wisconsin in the 2020 Rose Bowl, and Farr had to reuse a uniform combination, he opted to tweak the chrome helmets with green tonal wings that he painted on to match the face mask. As the famous San Gabriel mountain sunset struck its pose during the game, the helmets reflected it perfectly.

“It ended up being one of the best things I’ve ever done,” Farr said. “Then we won the game. So, it’s iconic right around here. But if we would’ve lost the game, people would be like, ‘Ah, we didn’t have a new uniform.'”

Farr is now used to that pressure, in large part, because he knows it’s not his vision that ultimately matters. In fact, Farr has, in the past, been overruled on a design he didn’t love only to see it shine.

“We wore one at Washington, I want to say four or five years ago, where it was a yellow helmet, yellow gloves and yellow cleats, but it was all white,” Farr said. And I was like, ‘This is looking stupid, and this is going to look terrible.’ We got on the field and people thought it looked great. So they like to give me a hard time about that.”

In the end, the final fit comes down to those who actually wear the jerseys.


TEZ JOHNSON WAS playing the part of lobbyist to no avail. The Oregon wide receiver, four of his teammates and Farr all gathered early last year to make the all-important decision: What were the Ducks going to wear for 2024, and when?

Farr had already received samples of every one of the five base uniforms that made up the “Generation O” class of kits from Van Horne Brands — helmets, jerseys, base layers, socks, cleats and gloves — and had them ready for players to see.

With five to pick from, players have to get creative. Farr does, too. When EA Sports’ college football game made its return last year, Farr was able to get EA to preload all of Oregon’s uniform combinations from its latest set onto the game so current players could try different blends they might be able to replicate in real life.

Johnson was adamant: Oregon should wear an all-black combination against Washington in the season finale. His teammates disagreed. The black getup was their best look of the year, and it should be worn earlier, specifically against Ohio State.

“It was very hotly debated for way too long,” Farr said. “The rest of the guys kind of overrode his vote. He was upset about it — I was like, ‘That’s all part of why you’re on the committee, but you’re only 20% of the vote, man.’ I totally leave it up to them.”

Farr has conducted this meeting for several years now, as a way to democratize the process. Every year, Farr selects a group of players, typically upperclassmen who have shown interest, to form a committee made up of an odd number so there’s never a tie. Over the course of two to three hours, players debate their choices, weighing things like opponent, where the game falls in their schedule and even weather.

“It’s got to be guys that are opinionated and not afraid to voice their opinions, because that’s what you want, you want a healthy dialogue,” Farr said. “For the players that are part of it, it’s kind of a badge of honor.”

Once players have finalized their choices with Farr’s assistance, he will lay out the scripting in a look book and show head coach Dan Lanning before the spring game for approval. Finalizing the looks well in advance of the season helps Farr organize the high volume of inventory he has to line up. Going off-script is rare, but not impossible. Two years ago, with undefeated Colorado visiting for a highly anticipated matchup, the Ducks changed to a different uniform combination.

Now, with the postseason potentially adding four extra games on top of the conference championship, Farr & Co. have to think beyond the regular season and a single bowl appearance. In the first season of the 12-team College Football Playoff last year, once Oregon knew whether it would be the away or home team, Farr texted committee members to get them thinking about their options for a quarterfinal look so Farr could get a combination set and organize the inventory in time

When you have one set of uniforms for three seasons of games, a repeat, especially in the playoffs, is almost inevitable. Even if players love a particular combination and want to run it back, Farr will always try to find a way to add a special twist.

“My whole argument is let’s not be different, just to be different,” Farr said. “We don’t have 12 helmets, 12 jerseys or 12 pairs of pants. It’s the different combinations and tweaks you can make that keep the looks unique.”


THE DUCKS MAY not have a different uniform for every game, but the fact that it feels like they do, or that it feels like they could if they wanted to, is a unique feature of Nike’s influence.

According to Farr, while Nike sponsors many programs across the country, it tiers schools, and that determines access to perks such as special releases and custom apparel, with Tier 1 being the highest — that is, unless you’re Oregon.

“[Nike] always told us,” Farr said, “we were Tier 0.”

“When I got to Oregon, I thought the practice jersey was the game jersey,” said wide receiver Evan Stewart, who transferred from Texas A&M. “It’s just different here. You look good, feel good, you play good.”

While players get to test upcoming fabrics and jersey materials that may not come out until 2028 (Oregon has been in the current Nike Fuse chassis that just came to the NFL since 2019), Nike gets to use Oregon athletes as wear test subjects (often it’s the uniform selection committee who gets first dibs) who provide feedback on the products. And while the Van Hornes and Nike are technically behind the designs, part of their process is getting input from players.

“Sometimes we don’t talk to players about what you want to look like,” Quinn Van Horne said. “It’s, ‘Hey if Oregon was a car, what kind of car would it be? What’s your favorite superhero movie? What kind of music are you listening to? When you walk out on the field, what do you see and what do you want to picture? What do you want to feel like?'”

It’s this system that will constantly evolve as players with different perspectives cycle in and out of the program that Todd Van Horne believes will keep Oregon’s well of uniform ideas stocked for years to come.

Perhaps nothing embodies that mindset more than the fact that Oregon commits to having at least one entirely new, never-before-seen uniform design each season.

Dubbed the “energy moment,” this sixth uniform combination has, over the years, run the gamut and largely been led by players. From a bright pink helmet with black jerseys in 2013, to a pan-Polynesian heritage-themed “Ohana” uniform in 2020, to a “Stomp Out Cancer” jersey in 2017 designed by cancer survivors as well as working on a “Heroes” bright yellow fit with Lanning’s wife Sauphia (who is eight years cancer-free after being diagnosed with osteosarcoma) last season, the energy moment jersey is where Oregon and Nike often flex their muscles. A Stormtrooper look? Yes. A Lewis-and-Clark-inspired combo? Why not?

“While we want to do some throwbacks and some throwbacks need to be done, it’s like, what’s the next thing?” Farr said. “How are we going to evolve?”

There’s another committee that Farr oversees of younger Oregon players who are part of the idea process for what the energy moment jersey will be in 2026 and 2027. This year’s edition had to be approved by Nike 18 months before it saw the field against Oregon State; it featured a charcoal black and gold look with white helmets dubbed “Shoe Duck” that honors Knight.

“We talk so much about when Oregon comes out with a really big uniform, we’re extra stressed,” Quinn Van Horne said. “We really want to make sure they win, because we know what a win does to cement a uniform and its foundation.”

For Farr, the Van Hornes and Bakas, being part of establishing or furthering Oregon’s aesthetic identity is important and an inextricable part of Nike’s history over the past 25 years. But the goal, from the beginning, has always gone beyond that.

“We intentionally said it, we’re doing all this to win a national title and the uniform [redesign] was part of that too,” Bakas said. “That’s the Nike mentality — you want to be the best. The goal was to win a national championship, and the wheels were set in motion back then. The intent was there, but I didn’t think it would take 30 years or 25 years to get to this point. I thought we would’ve won one by now.”


THE BUILDING THAT houses them may be named after him, but inside the hallway of hanging jerseys, you won’t find any sporting Mariota’s name.

Players who finish their senior season at the school are given a framed jersey before their last home game. Because the jerseys are technically state property, should a player want any of his other Oregon jerseys back, the price is $50 — plus shipping and handling.

Mariota bought all of his once he made it to the NFL. Not everyone else has, though. It’s why even though that closet holds close to 1,000 jerseys, there are still 600 to 800 more sitting in storage on the floor below.

“There’s guys that have left after their five years, and maybe your freshman year was the full reset, and then three years in you got another full reset,” Farr said. “So we’ve had guys that have, at the end of their career, had 40 or 50 jerseys.”

After years of simply taking old jerseys and selling them at a school surplus sale, Farr decided on a different approach. When the performance center was built in 2016, he took the jerseys from storage in rail cars to this room, where he organized them in alphabetical order. You never know who is going to swing through Eugene one of these days wanting to reunite with their polyester past.

“For every Marcus, there’s 119 other guys on that team that maybe weren’t the star player, or maybe when they graduated they couldn’t afford to buy all their jerseys,” Farr said. “So maybe they forgot about it or whatever the situation is, and they’ll come back and they’ll just ask me, and I get to tell them ‘Yeah, here they are.'”

Farr got to do just that as recently as the game against the Cowboys this season.

Cornerback Jaylin Davies was a freshman at Oregon in 2021 before transferring to UCLA for three seasons, eventually landing with Oklahoma State. Davies and Farr greeted each other after the game on the field. Though Davies had only recorded a few snaps as a freshman, he wanted his piece of Oregon history.

“You still have my jersey?” Davies asked Farr.

“I do,” Farr told him. “Call me after the season is over.”

Farr was happy to oblige. After all, that’s one more jersey he can take off a hanger and send on its way, just in time for another to take its place.

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Raleigh hits Nos. 59, 60 as M’s clinch AL West

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Raleigh hits Nos. 59, 60 as M's clinch AL West

SEATTLE — Cal Raleigh hit his MLB-leading 59th and 60th home runs Wednesday night as the Seattle Mariners clinched the AL West with a 9-2 win over the Colorado Rockies.

His 59th was a solo shot in the first inning and his 60th was another solo homer in the eighth.

The Mariners, the lone big league team that has never been to a World Series, clinched the fourth division crown in the franchise’s 49-year history and the first since 2001, when they set an AL record with 116 wins.

Raleigh, batting left-handed, connected off Tanner Gordon in the first inning for a blast to right field that reached the top deck at T-Mobile Park. In the eighth inning, Raleigh, batting left-handed again, connected off Angel Chivilli.

Raleigh has 11 multihome run games this season, tied with Aaron Judge (2022), Hank Greenberg (1938) and Sammy Sosa for the MLB record.

With four games remaining in the Mariners’ regular season, Raleigh has a chance to pass New York Yankees star Judge for the American League single-season home run record. Judge hit 62 home runs in 2022 to break the previous record set by Roger Maris, which had stood since 1961.

Raleigh’s latest homers came just four days after he passed Ken Griffey Jr. for the franchise’s single-season home run record with his 57th homer. Griffey hit 56 in 1997 and 1998.

Raleigh also has surpassed Mickey Mantle’s previous MLB record of 54 home runs by a switch-hitter that had stood since 1961. He set the MLB record for homers by a catcher this season, eclipsing the 48 hit by Salvador Perez in 2021.

Raleigh is four home runs ahead of Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber and seven home runs ahead of Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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