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Prices in the UK rose even faster than expected last month, reaching the highest level in 18 months, according to official figures.

Inflation hit 3.8% in July, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.

Not since January 2024 have prices risen as fast.

It’s up from 3.6% in June and is anticipated to reach 4% by the end of the year.

Economists polled by Reuters had only been expecting a 3.6% rise.

More unwelcome news is contained elsewhere in the ONS’s data.

Train tickets

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Another metric of inflation used by government to set rail fare rises, the retail price index, came in at 4.8%.

It means train tickets could go up 5.8% next year, depending on how the government calculate the increase.

This year, the rise was one percentage point above the retail price index measure of inflation.

These regulated fares account for about half of rail journeys.

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Inflation up by more than expected

Why?

Inflation rose so much due to higher transport costs, mostly from air fares due to the school holidays, as well as from fuel and food.

Petrol and diesel were more expensive in July this year compared to last, which made journeys pricier.

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Coffee, orange juice, meat and chocolate were among the items with the highest price rises, the ONS said. It contributed to food inflation of 4.9%.

What does it mean for interest rates?

Another measure of inflation that’s closely watched by rate setters at the Bank of England rose above expectations.

Core inflation – which measures price rises without volatile food and energy costs – rose to 3.8%. It had been forecast to remain at 3.7%.

It’s not good news for interest rates and for anyone looking to refix their mortgage, as the Bank’s target for inflation is 2%.

Whether or not there’ll be another cut this year is hotly debated, but at present, traders expect no more this year, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

Economists at Capital Economics anticipate a cut in November, while the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) expect one more by the end of the year.

Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast no change in the base interest rate.

Political response

Responding to the news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said:

“We have taken the decisions needed to stabilise the public finances, and we’re a long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous government, but there’s more to do to ease the cost of living.”

Shadow chancellor and Conservative Mel Stride said, “Labour’s choices to tax jobs and ramp up borrowing are pushing up costs and stoking inflation. And the Chancellor is gearing up to do it all over again in the autumn.”

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Energy group Ovo plots sale of stake in software arm Kaluza

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Energy group Ovo plots sale of stake in software arm Kaluza

The energy supplier Ovo is plotting the sale of a stake in its software arm at a ‘unicorn’ valuation as part of efforts to strengthen the balance sheet of Britain’s fourth-largest residential gas and electricity group.

Sky News has learnt that Ovo, which has just under 4m retail customers, has appointed Arma Partners, the investment bank, to explore options for Kaluza.

It replicates a move by larger rival Octopus Energy – revealed by Sky News – to hire advisers to work on a demerger of its Kraken software arm at a potential valuation of well over $10bn (£7.4bn).

Kaluza, which describes itself as an energy intelligence platform and this week announced a licensing partnership with the French-based energy group Engie, is 80%-owned by Ovo.

The remaining 20% is owned by AGL, an Australian energy company which bought a stake last year in a deal valuing Kaluza at $500m (£395m).

Industry sources said that Ovo was likely to seek a valuation for Kaluza in any new transaction of well over $1bn, although they added that there were questions about the software business’s path to sustainable profitability and its pipeline of new customers.

One analyst suggested that Kaluza’s majority-owner could pitch a valuation for Kaluza – run by chief executive Melissa Gander – of as much as $2.5bn based on annual recurring revenue (ARR).

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Kaluza recently bought Beige Technologies, an Australian energy software specialist, in order to strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

The prospective Kaluza stake sale comes amid a wider effort by Ovo to bolster its financial position.

Rothschild, the investment bank, has been orchestrating talks with potential investors about a plan to inject in the region of £300m into the company.

At one point, this is understood to have included discussions with Iberdrola, the owner of rival supplier Scottish Power.

Centrica, the owner of British Gas, may also have expressed an interest in examining a deal, according to banking sources.

A deal with another third party is said to be likely before the end of the year.

On Friday, Sky News revealed that the company – like Octopus Energy – had so far failed to meet targets imposed as part of a new capital adequacy regime overseen by Ofgem, the industry regulator.

A spokesperson for Ovo said it had “taken proactive measures to align with Ofgem’s new capital rules, working constructively to meet the requirements.”

Ovo recently named Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the former boss of Virgin Money, as the independent chair of its retail arm.

Founded by Stephen Fitzpatrick, the entrepreneur who now owns London’s Kensington Roof Gardens, Ovo’s existing shareholders include the private equity firm Mayfair Equity Partners, Morgan Stanley Investment Management and Mitsubishi Corporation, the Japanese conglomerate.

Under Mr Fitzpatrick, who launched Ovo in 2009, the company positioned itself as a challenger brand offering superior service to the industry’s established players.

Ovo’s transformational moment came in 2020, when it bought the retail supply arm of SSE, transforming it overnight into one of Britain’s leading energy companies.

Its growth has not been without difficulties, however, particularly in relation to its challenged relationship with Ofgem and a torrent of customer complaints about overcharging.

The group is now run by David Buttress, who was briefly Boris Johnson’s cost-of-living tsar after leaving the top job at Just Eat, as its chief executive.

Kaluza declined to comment on the appointment of Arma Partners.

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Harrods customers’ details stolen in IT systems breach

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Harrods customers' details stolen in IT systems breach

Harrods has warned its e-commerce customers that their personal data may have been taken in an IT systems breach.

Information like customers’ names and contact details was taken after one of Harrods’ third-party provider systems was compromised, the luxury London department store said.

Affected customers have been informed and reassured that the impacted data is “limited to basic personal identifiers”, a spokesperson said.

Account passwords or payment details were not affected in the breach.

“The third party has confirmed this is an isolated incident which has been contained, and we are working closely with them to ensure that all appropriate actions are being taken. We have notified all relevant authorities,” Harrods added.

“No Harrods system has been compromised and it is important to note that the data was taken from a third-party provider.”

This comes four months after the department store restricted internet access as a precautionary measure due to “attempts to gain unauthorised access” to some of its systems.

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Friday’s breach is “unconnected” to the attempts in May, the spokesman said.

Two men aged 19, a 17-year-old boy and a 20-year-old woman were arrested in July over their suspected involvement in cyber attacks on Harrods, Marks & Spencer, and the Co-op.

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They were arrested on suspicion of blackmail, money laundering, offences linked ot the Computer Misuse Act, and participating in the activities of an organised crime group, the National Crime Agency said.

All four have been bailed pending further inquiries.

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Nursery hackers: ‘There’s more to come’

It comes as hackers claim to have stolen pictures, names and addresses of thousands of children in a cyber attack on a nursery chain in London.

The group, calling itself Radiant, has released personal information about children and staff at the Kido nursery chain on the dark web and demanded a ransom from the company.

Radiant told Sky News on Friday it intends to imminently release the profiles of more children and employees.

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

Donald Trump has revealed a fresh round of trade tariffs on several key sectors, with the most punitive rate likely to affect UK businesses.

The US president used his Truth Social account last night to confirm that a new 100% tariff would apply to any branded or patented pharmaceutical product from 1 October.

He said that to escape the clutches of that duty, a company must have already broken ground on a new US factory.

Money latest: Cost of a pint across UK revealed

From the same date, a 50% tariff would be applied to all imported kitchen and bathroom cabinets while upholstered furniture faced a 30% rate.

A 25% tariff faced shipments of heavy trucks.

The president did not confirm whether the duties would be lower for nations to have agreed trade deals with his administration, including the UK and European Union.

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Each faces a blanket 10% and 15% rate on their exports respectively at the moment.

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What does UK-US trade deal involve?

It is likely, however, that the new duties will be applied in line with other, higher, sectoral tariffs that are currently in place above those agreed rates.

“The reason for this is the large scale “FLOODING” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries,” Trump said in his post.

The lack of detail around the application of the planned new tariff rules means further uncertainty for companies potentially affected.

Shares in pharmaceutical firms listed in Asia fell sharply overnight as industry bodies rushed to seek clarification on the new rules.

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Will trade deal with Trump cost UK green jobs?

AstraZeneca – the UK’s most valuable listed company – already has vast US manufacturing and research operations.

In July, as the threat of tariffs loomed large, it revealed plans for a further $50bn investment by 2030.

US figures show the country imported $233bn of drugs and medicines from abroad last year.

A 100% tariff rate, even on some of those shipments, risk ramping up the cost of US healthcare.

By imposing the 100% tariff rate, Mr Trump wants to bring prices down through encouraging domestic production.

US industry groups lined up to oppose the planned measures.

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America said non-US companies were continuing to announce hundreds of billions of dollars in new US. investments. “Tariffs risk those plans,” it said.

The US Chamber of Commerce urged a U-turn on any truck tariffs.

It said the five nations to be worst affected – Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland – were “allies or close partners of the United States posing no threat to US national security.”.

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