2026 recruiting class rankings: Oklahoma cracks the latest top 40
-
Craig Haubert
The 2025 college football season is upon us, so it’s time for past top prospects to step up and make their mark.
While the focus shifts to the field and very few ESPN 300 prospects remain uncommitted, the recruiting wheel keeps on spinning and has resulted in some movers, including a new entry into our updated top 40 rankings.
And, of course, recruiting is always full of unexpected twists and turns, so the race for positioning in the rankings, including at the very top, never seems settled until signing day in December makes it all official.
New this ranking: Oklahoma
Out: TCU
(Previous update: Aug. 8)
Previous ranking: 1
ESPN 300 commits: 19
Top offensive prospect: OT Keenyi Pepe
Top defensive prospect: CB Elbert Hill
No program has more 2026 momentum than USC under Lincoln Riley, especially after hiring general manager Chad Bowden away from Notre Dame. The Trojans have double-digit ESPN 300 commits, with several joining the list since January. That includes two five-stars to start May in Pepe and Hill, and a pair of four-star commits who flipped from Big Ten rival Oregon: in-state defensive lineman Tomuhini Topui and quarterback Jonas Williams. Topui is a physical, aggressive defensive tackle who could develop into an interior pass-rushing headache for opposing offenses, and Williams is a true dual-threat signal-caller.
USC also made it a point to beef up in the trenches. It pulled four-star defensive tackle Jaimeon Winfield out of Texas, landed in-state defensive end Simote Katoanga and traveled to Utah to snag Corner Canyon offensive lineman Esun Tafa. To further bolster the O-line, the Trojans landed Pepe out of IMG Academy. He is huge at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds, but is light on his feet as well as physical and can become a standout tackle. On the perimeter, they will not have to wait for in-state defender R.J. Sermons as the ESPN 300 CB reclassified to 2025 and will join the Trojans this fall. For 2026, they pulled Elbert Hill, the top-ranked corner, out of the Midwest. Hill possesses elite speed, having been measured at over 22 mph in game play.
Previous ranking: 2
ESPN 300 commits: 19
Top offensive prospect: QB Jared Curtis
Top defensive prospect: CB Justice Fitzpatrick
The Bulldogs have been a staple among the top three recruiting classes during Kirby Smart’s tenure and look to be a contender to do so again in 2026. A big step toward finishing near the top is bringing five-star quarterback Curtis back into the mix. After a decommitment, the Bulldogs were able to fend off other suitors, most notably Oregon, and give themselves a potential impact QB for the future. Curtis might need to adjust to a relatively steep jump in competition level, but he has elite physical tools, including a smooth, quick release and the ability to change arm angles.
With three of their top four pass catchers from 2024 having moved on and the fourth likely to leave after this season, Georgia is bringing in new receiving targets with speed. Brady Marchese has been recorded hitting over 22 mph in game play. Kaiden Prothro can give the Bulldogs a matchup nightmare as he possesses an excellent blend of size, speed and body control. After signing two ESPN 300 TEs in their 2025 class, the Dawgs continue to restock there, adding Lincoln Keyes, who with his big frame and good body control can offer a wide catch radius.
On defense, the Bulldogs have had 11 first-round NFL draft picks over the past five years and they continue to infuse that unit with top talent, including two of the top DBs in the country in Fitzpatrick and Zechariah Fort. Fort is a safety with good range who can be active in run support. Fitzpatrick is the younger brother of former Alabama great Minkah Fitzpatrick; his blend of size and speed gives him equally promising impact potential.
Previous ranking: 3
ESPN 300 commits: 15
Top offensive prospect: RB K.J. Edwards
Top defensive prospect: ATH Brandon Arrington
Mike Elko has quickly proved he can identify and recruit at a high level. He has worked fertile recruiting grounds outside his home territory, including Georgia, Florida, California. He went out west to land the nation’s No. 1-ranked athlete Brandon Arrington, whose speed could allow him to have an impact on either side of the ball, though he projects to corner in College Station. He pulled out Georgia ESPN 300 DLs Jordan Carter and Bryce Perry-Wright as well as landing fellow four-star defensive tackle Jermaine Kinsler out of New Jersey.
The Aggies bolstered their rushing attack with a pair of in-state running backs in K.J. Edwards and Jonathan Hatton, who has an excellent blend of size (200 pounds) and speed (he was measured hitting 21 mph on film). Edwards has been very productive in high school, rushing for 1,700 yards in each of his last two seasons.
Elko has also been able to unearth talent from more unlikely places, such as quarterback Helaman Casuga out of Utah. Casuga is not a big, physical prospect at roughly 6 feet, but he has a live arm and can get the ball out quickly. Victor Singleton, one of the top prospects in Ohio, was a nice flip from Illinois. He has clocked a 21-mph max speed and has the type of quickness and excellent feet to thrive in man coverage at corner.
Previous ranking: 4
ESPN 300 commits: 14
Top offensive prospect: QB Dia Bell
Top defensive prospect: DE Richard Wesley
As Texas tackles the 2025 season led by one of the most high-profile signings in recent years in quarterback Arch Manning, the Longhorns continue to build for the future, including another five-star QB. Dia Bell brings valuable experience, having faced quality competition during his time in high school. He has shown good accuracy and deep-ball touch, and as a junior threw for more than 2,500 yards and completed 70% of his passes.
The Horns also added potential targets in ESPN 300 WRs Chris Stewart and Jermaine Bishop Jr. Stewart brings big-play speed, and Bishop is a quick, fluid target who can create after the catch. Their backfield gained more five-star talent with Derrek Cooper, a versatile running back who blends excellent size and speed and can also be a receiving threat. To protect their new offensive weapons, they have also landed some top in-state OLs, including top-10 OG Nicolas Robertson, a powerful big man with good feet.
Texas hit the transfer portal hard to address needs along the defensive line for this season, especially interior DL, but there are young players for that unit in the 2026 class. One-time Oregon commit Richard Wesley was a big add as he is explosive and powerful and could be a versatile and impactful presence in the trenches. Dylan Berymon has been a standout on the camp circuit the past two offseasons and seems to keep rising to whatever challenge is thrown at him. Corey Wells is another 300-pounder who can bend well and be disruptive.
Previous ranking: 5
ESPN 300 commits: 18
Top offensive prospect: TE Ian Premer
Top defensive prospect: CB Khary Adams
Notre Dame started the year off slowly on the recruiting trail but added several key ESPN 300 additions in the spring and summer months, including important defensive additions. Rodney Dunham was one of the first on board and is an edge player with a quick first step. The secondary will benefit from adding some length to that unit. Ayden Pouncey is a rangy safety with a 6-foot-3 frame that could allow him to grow into an outside linebacker role. Khary Adams is one of the top cornerback prospects in the nation as he possesses an excellent blend of size (6-foot-2) and speed (21.3 mph max speed).
On offense, ESPN 300 OT Gregory Patrick joined a class that already featured several top offensive line prospects including top-10 tackle Tyler Merrill, who at 6-foot-7 and 335 pounds is a massive presence with physicality and power in the run game. This group collectively can continue the school’s strong reputation as an offensive line factory.
The Irish also landed Thomas Davis Jr., whose father is former Panthers star Thomas Davis, and four-star quarterback Noah Grubbs, who already has shown impressive footwork and a sound release from the pocket. Their QB of the future will benefit from multiple targets added in this class, including TE Ian Premer. Among the wide receivers in the group is high-three star Devin Fitzgerald, the son of former NFL great Larry Fitzgerald. Like his father, he is a good-sized target at nearly 6-foot-2 and has shown to be productive, with more than 50 receptions and nine TDs as a junior.
Previous ranking: 6
ESPN 300 commits: 12
Top offensive prospect: TE Kendre’ Harrison
Top defensive prospect: S Jett Washington
Dan Lanning’s run of sustained excellence in Eugene rolls on with Oregon’s 2026 class. Reeling in five-star tight end Kendre’ Harrison in November set the tone. The 6-6, 250-pound tight end is a dynamic two-sport athlete with an exceptional catch radius and is a nightmare for opposing defenses in the red zone. The Ducks also added a five-star prospect to their defense with the big-framed and rangy Jett Washington. A fluid safety with good ball skills and the ability to win jump-ball battles, he can also be a physical presence in the secondary. The Ducks added four-star defensive back Xavier Lherisse, who clocked an impressive 1.62 10-yard dash and 4.49 40-yard dash at the Under Armour Miami camp. Four-star running back Tradarian Ball adds explosiveness and excellent ball skills.
While the commitment of five-star DE Richard Wesley was short-lived, the Ducks still have a strong defensive line foundation within this class. They secured the top in-state big man in ESPN 300 DT Tony Cumberland, who has good burst and power, and can be a disruptive presence. DE Dutch Horisk will arrive from one of the top programs in California (St. John Bosco), where he has been a multiyear starter who uses his hands well; as a junior, he had nine TFLs and four sacks.
Oregon also has bolstered its O-line unit. Leading that group is five-star Immanuel Iheanacho, who is a massive presence at around 6-foot-7, 350 pounds and can push defenders around. The Ducks also pulled a pair of OLs from former conference foe Cal, in ESPN 300 OG Tommy Tofi and Koloi Keli.
Previous rank: 7
ESPN 300 commits: 10
Top offensive prospect: RB Ezavier Crowell
Top defensive prospect: S Jireh Edwards
It took some time for Alabama’s class to find its footing, but an active June brought the Tide into the mix among the top classes in the country. They kept one of the top running backs in the class at home by landing Ezavier Crowell, an aggressive runner who possesses good power and vision.
The defense is benefitting from some big pickups, including pulling several ESPN 300 defenders out of Georgia. Xavier Griffin has a lengthy and broad frame to develop and can get up field and bend the edge. From the same high school (Gainesville), the Tide snagged DE Jamarion Matthews, who has a stockier build but can also bend well and get after the quarterback.
They also added a pair of top-10 CBs in Jorden Edmonds, also out of the Peach State, and in-state Zyan Gibson, who has posted consistent mid-4.4 40s on the camp circuit. The summer success continues into July as the Tide added five-star Jireh Edwards to their secondary. At roughly 6-foot-2 and more than 200 pounds with excellent testing numbers, Edwards can be a physical and versatile defensive back.
Previous ranking: 8
ESPN 300 commits: 13
Top offensive prospect: WR Chris Henry Jr.
Top defensive prospect: S Blaine Bradford
Ryan Day has the luxury of building his 2026 class around one of the most coveted players in the country: five-star receiver Henry, whose father, the late Chris Henry, was a star receiver for West Virginia and the Cincinnati Bengals. Henry Jr. stands 6-6 and has a combination of length and quickness rarely seen from high school receivers.
The rest of the Buckeyes’ class has started to take shape around Henry. The team has added a handful of ESPN 300 prospects since March, including Bradford out of Louisiana and linebacker Simeon Caldwell out of Florida. C.J. Sanna is a prospect we like on tape; he is a big, physical linebacker with excellent range and is a bit of an underrated pickup for this talented class. In-state offensive tackle Maxwell Riley is impressive changing direction and finishes plays with the type of nastiness that will endear him to fans in Columbus.
Previous ranking: 9
ESPN 300 commits: 10
Top offensive prospect: WR Tristen Keys
Top defensive prospect: DT Lamar Brown
The Tigers are tough to beat for in-state talent, and they built the foundation for one of the top classes in the country with homegrown recruits. A great example of that came when they fended off several top suitors, including Texas A&M, and kept top-ranked prospect Lamar Brown at home. Projected to the defensive line, he is an agile and flexible big man who also could excel, if needed, as an offensive lineman.
From outside the state, Tristen Keys from nearby Mississippi delivered Brian Kelly and his staff their first five-star of the 2026 cycle. As of now, the 6-3 Keys would be the highest-rated receiver to make it to Baton Rouge since Kayshon Boutte. Keys is a long strider with long arms who prioritizes winning and is a favorite of coaches and teammates alike.
LSU also added wide receiver Jabari Mack (a strong route runner) and offensive tackle Brysten Martinez, a pair of in-state four-star recruits who bolster a class that now features more than half of the top 10 players from Louisiana. That includes a pair of teammates from Edna Karr High: DT Richard Anderson, a stout presence at more than 300 pounds with good initial quickness, and Aiden Hall, a safety with good length, speed and downhill physicality. Though much of their recruiting success is from within their primary recruiting footprint, the Tigers did go out west to land ESPN 300 CB Havon Finney Jr. A 2027 prospect who reclassified into the 2026 class, he has shown he can be physical in press coverage but also brings excellent speed to be able to run with receivers.
Previous ranking: 10
ESPN 300 commits: 13
Top offensive prospect: RB Savion Hiter
Top defensive prospect: DE Carter Meadows
The Wolverines signed the No. 1 QB for the 2025 cycle in Bryce Underwood and he carries high expectations, but they continue to add talent to the position and landed ESPN 300 signal-caller Brady Smigiel. The onetime Florida State commit is not only an accurate passer, but he also plays with the confidence and swagger that will be needed battling with five-star Underwood. Michigan further bolstered its backfield by landing No. 2 RB Savion Hiter, a runner with a nice blend of size (6 feet, 200 pounds), power and speed who can also catch the ball well.
After losing two DLs in the first round of the NFL draft, Michigan added several DLs to this class, including ESPN 300 DEs Titan Davis and McHale Blade. Four-star DE Tariq Boney is a player to keep an eye on. He lacks ideal length but can be a well-rounded technician and a quick contributor. In addition to pulling Boney out of the nation’s capital, Michigan also landed Carter Meadows, a rangy edge defender who can bend well.
After scoring from off the beaten path with former standout TE Colston Loveland (Idaho), the Wolverines hope to strike big again from that same region with Matt Ludwig out of Montana. He is a versatile player with good ball skills who can be tough after the catch and fights for yards.
Previous ranking: 12
ESPN 300 commits: 14
Top offensive prospect: ATH Davian Groce
Top defensive prospect: DE JaReylan McCoy
Landing one of the top defenders in the country is the fastest way to climb the recruiting rankings, and that’s exactly what Billy Napier did by securing five-star defensive end JaReylan McCoy. Ranked No. 9 overall and the second-best defender in the ESPN 300, McCoy would be Florida’s highest-rated defensive signee in more than a decade. The 6-foot-7, 260-pound Mississippi native brings elite length, explosive traits and a relentless motor that was on full display at the Under Armour All-America week in January. Beating out LSU and Texas for McCoy marks a major recruiting win for Napier, and McCoy has the potential to develop into one of the SEC’s most feared defensive linemen.
A late close helped the Gators rise in the past cycle, but they’ve ascended much earlier this time around with an active summer. In June they added a pair of dynamic pass catchers in Marquez Daniel and Justin Williams, as well as Georgia running back Carsyn Baker. An early but key pickup was QB Will Griffin, who came on board in June 2024. A big-bodied passer with a strong arm and good accuracy, he could eventually be a nice transition from current QB DJ Lagway. Napier’s staff has also bolstered both lines of scrimmage with several high-upside prospects ranked just outside the ESPN 300, adding critical depth as Florida looks to reassert itself in the SEC.
Previous ranking: 11
ESPN 300 commits: 10
Top offensive prospect: OT Jackson Cantwell
Top defensive prospect: LB Jordan Campbell
Despite a rocky finish to the 2024 season, the Hurricanes are trending in the right direction. They’re coming off a 10-win season, former QB Cam Ward was the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft and they’ve reeled in two consecutive top-15 recruiting classes. Mario Cristobal’s 2026 class is working to match or even exceed those groups.
The Hurricanes are adding pieces to field a dominant offensive line. They could lose several projected 2025 starters after this season but are adding big men who can step in and project a bright future in the trenches. In addition to landing the top-rated interior OL in the 2025 class, they have added several OLs to their 2026 class, led by No. 1 tackle Jackson Cantwell. Much like current standout OT Francis Mauigoa, who was a five-star himself and a Year 1 starter, Cantwell could step in at one of the tackle spots upon arriving in South Florida. He is a massive presence at roughly 6-7 and 320 pounds and carries his size well. In addition to being powerful, he possesses good quickness and flexibility, and much like Mauigoa is being projected to be a high NFL draft pick.
QB Dereon Coleman has room for growth but has a quick release and accuracy. The Hurricanes flipped from Georgia a speedy receiving target out of California in Vance Spafford, who won the fastest-man competition last summer at the UA Future 50 event. Four-star Miami native Jordan Campbell is 6-2, 220 pounds with the versatility to make plays in pursuit and the bend and power that portend a potential impact pass rusher. He’s a candidate to take a leap with college coaching.
Previous ranking: 13
ESPN 300 commits: 12
Top offensive prospect: TE Xavier Tiller
Top defensive prospect: LB Izayia Williams
Mike Norvell cranked up the heat on Florida State’s 2026 recruiting class this summer. Coming off a 2-10 season that led to a staff overhaul, Norvell’s fresh start pitch is resonating with prospects. A key in-state win was landing rangy top-five CB Chauncey Kennon out of Booker High School in Sarasota. LB Izayia Williams has bounced around with multiple commitments, including a previous commitment to the Seminoles, but if they can keep him in the mix, their defense will add a player with excellent speed and range.
The Seminoles landed multiple four-star commitments in June, headlined by tight end Xavier Tiller, who checks in at No. 84 on the ESPN 300. A former Texas A&M commit, the 6-foot-5, 215-pound Tiller boasts an 80-inch wingspan, fluid movement skills and the toughness to win contested catches.
Tiller isn’t the only notable pass catcher entering the mix for Florida State. Wide receiver Devin Carter, the son of former Seminoles running back Dexter Carter, is back in the fold after initially flipping to Auburn. He brings explosive short-area quickness and a strong football background. Four-star Florida native Brandon Bennett adds another dynamic option.
Norvell also landed a quarterback who could one day get them the ball and tie the class together by flipping Jaden O’Neal, who plays at Mustang High in Oklahoma, from the in-state Sooners. The 6-foot-3 pocket passer ranks No. 166 overall with a good frame, smooth delivery and calm demeanor. If Florida State holds on to O’Neal, he would be the program’s highest-rated quarterback signee since 2022.
Previous ranking: 16
ESPN 300 commits: 8
Top offensive prospect: WR Keeyun Chapman
Top defensive prospect: CB Jakob Weatherspoon
Unsurprisingly given his ethos, Bill Belichick is building North Carolina’s 2026 class from the inside out. Zavion Griffin-Haynes was a key in-state keep. The aggressive, lengthy edge defender can bolster the Heels’ defensive front with the tools to be a three-down player. Four-star North Carolina defensive tackle Trashawn Ruffin flipped from Texas A&M, and the 300-pounder has plenty of raw physicality to mold. Ruffin is one of several interior linemen in the class that also includes one-time Oregon commit Viliami Moala, a massive 300-pounder who brings not only jolting power but is light on his feet for his size and can be a handful in the heart of the trenches.
The secondary has undergone some changes during this recruiting cycle, but Marcellous Ryan out of California remains and gives UNC a lean but fluid CB to develop. Jakob Weatherspoon out of Ohio was a big flip from Ohio State and is CB with excellent speed. Crew Davis can be a versatile back with the power to run between the tackles, but he also possesses good ball skills. As a junior, he rushed for more than 1,300 yards and also hauled in more than 50 receptions.
In an effort to boost their passing attack, the Heels have added several potential big-play pieces. Quarterback commit Travis Burgess had a strong showing at the Elite 11 finals and jumped into the ESPN 300 after spring evaluations. He displayed steady development including improved accuracy and also has excellent mobility to create with his legs as well. In July they added a pair of ESPN 300 WRs in Keeyun Chapman and Carnell Warren, both of whom are big targets (roughly 6-foot-4) who can run well. Having worked with some excellent TEs in his past, Belichick was able to snare a flip from Tennessee in Carson Sneed, an ESPN 300 TE who can also be a productive target as well as aid the ground game as a tenacious blocker.
Previous ranking: 14
ESPN 300 commits: 11
Top offensive prospect: QB Faizon Brandon
Top defensive prospect: LB Brayden Rouse
Faizon Brandon, a five-star quarterback, is the headliner here, and rightfully so. He’s a strong, accurate passer who fits Tennessee’s offense perfectly. His commitment was big initially but seems even more impactful after the Vols’ well-publicized split with Nico Iamaleava.
In-state four-star receiver Tyreek King (Knoxville Catholic) and Joel Wyatt (Webb School) pair well alongside Brandon. He is a quick, fluid target who has clocked in-game speeds faster than 21 mph. Keep an eye on in-state offensive tackle Gabriel Osenda, who is a massive presence (6-7, 330 pounds) for the Vols to develop.
Tennessee’s in-state success extends to defense with DE Zach Groves. A defender with good quickness and power, he has amassed more than 50 TFLs heading into his senior season. The Vols also bolstered their D-line by landing Dereon Albert out of Mississippi. The 300-pound defender has been a UA Next camp standout two straight years and displays the tools to be a tough, competitive and consistent presence in the trenches. Brayden Rouse, out of Georgia, could contribute at TE but projects to linebacker, where he brings good range and can play well in space and be effective in coverage.
Previous ranking: 15
ESPN 300 commits: 11
Top offensive prospect: OT Leo Delaney
Top defensive prospect: S Kentavion Anderson
Clemson is coming off a College Football Playoff appearance, but the Tigers are still chasing the heights of their mid-2010s success under Dabo Swinney, and their 2025 class ranked just 37th in the country. Their 2026 group is looking more promising, especially after a red-hot March in which Swinney landed eight verbals, including five ESPN 300 commits.
Much of the talent is currently concentrated on offense. Naeem Burroughs is a burner in the 100-meter dash who can take the top off a defense and has a high football IQ. Fellow receiver Connor Salmin is another big-play threat. With some new offensive weapons, the Tigers are making sure they have the time to get the ball downfield by loading up along the offensive line. Delaney, Carter Scruggs, Grant Wise, Adam Guthrie and Chancellor Barclay give the Tigers multiple ESPN 300 OLs to help reload a senior-heavy unit that is projected to lose multiple starters after 2025.
They could one day protect fellow four-star Tait Reynolds, a dual-threat QB out of Arizona who could push to be part of the long-term solution to replace Cade Klubnik. While the foundation of the class is on offense, Anderson is a key in-state pickup on the other side of the ball. With his frame (roughly 6-foot-2, 190 pounds) and range, he can be a versatile back-end defender for the Tigers.
Previous ranking: 17
ESPN 300 commits: 6
Top offensive prospect: WR Davion Brown
Top defensive prospect: S Matt Sieg
The Nittany Lions jumped out to a fast start fueled by strong in-state recruiting and have kept that momentum going. Several of their top commits are Pennsylvania natives, including four-star Harrisburg High School teammates Kevin Brown and Messiah Mickens. Brown is a big, flexible offensive tackle, while Mickens has been a productive prep running back, which bodes well for a Penn State program that must finally replace Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton after 2025.
James Franklin also landed in-state athlete David Davis Jr., who has clocked a 20.5 mph max speed and has the cover skills to fit into the back end of a defense one day. While most of the early commits are within Penn State’s primary recruiting radius, the Nittany Lions also landed strong-armed quarterback Troy Huhn out of California. He’s a big body with good feet and brings nice upside. They also went out of state to land a potential big-play target in Davion Brown. Out of Virginia, Brown possesses excellent speed, having been recorded at over 21 mph in game play, and can do a good job of high pointing the football to win contested matchups.
Previous ranking: 18
ESPN 300 commits: 6
Top offensive prospect: OT Kodi Greene
Top defensive prospect: DE Derek Colman-Brusa
Jedd Fisch did an excellent job bringing in talent at Arizona and is now working to retool Washington’s roster and get the Huskies back into the playoff hunt. The Huskies won a key recruiting battle by pulling away Greene, an ESPN 300 OL, from rival Oregon. He is a 300-pounder who moves very well for his size with good quickness and the one-time Washington resident can be a key option in the trenches. The Huskies went east to land their QB in Derek Zammit, a tough, smart player with a smooth, quick release. He should continue to improve with the tools to develop into a productive starter.
Washington landed several commitments in the secondary to address that unit. In-state Elijah Durr has good size at roughly 6 feet and is smooth in his movements. He could develop at cornerback or safety. The Huskies also added a pair of four-star DBs in CB Jeron Jones, who has good speed, and Gavin Day out of Las Vegas, an aggressive safety who tallied more than 100 tackles as a junior.
Previous ranking: 19
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: TE Brock Harris
Top defensive prospect: DE Braxton Lindsey
Kalani Sitake’s 2026 class has the potential to be program-defining as BYU builds on the momentum of last year’s 11-win season, which saw the Cougars climb as high as No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Cougars currently hold commitments from two top-100 ESPN 300 standouts — tight end Brock Harris and quarterback Ryder Lyons — marking what could be their most highly rated duo of high school signees in the ESPN 300 era dating to 2006).
Harris, a 6-foot-7, 240-pound in-state product, has transformed from a jumbo wideout into one of the nation’s premier tight ends, adding size while retaining his fluid route-running and wide catch radius. He also brings toughness, having competed at the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game with a cast on his hand. If all goes according to plan, Harris will catch plenty of passes from Lyons, a four-star quarterback who won California’s Gatorade Player of the Year award this fall. Lyons’ commitment represents a full-circle win for BYU. The Cougars offered him as an eighth grader and held off the likes of USC and Oregon to secure his commitment.
Another ESPN 300 prospect, two-way lineman Bott Mulitalo, committed in March and could be tasked with protecting Lyons down the road, adding to what has the makings of a historic haul in Provo.
Previous ranking: 20
ESPN 300 commits: 5
Top offensive prospect: OT Evan Goodwin
Top defensive prospect: LB Kenneth Goodwin
The Mustangs charged into the CFP last season and are showing signs they plan to be consistent contenders. Capitalizing on the rich talent base in Texas, they have added several in-state prospects, including ESPN 300 back Christian Rhodes. An explosive runner who has been recorded hitting better than 21 mph in game play, he rushed for more than 1,200 yards as a junior. To help clear running lanes, the Mustangs have added several offensive linemen, including Evan Goodwin, a massive presence at 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds, and in-state guard Drew Evers, a thickly built and strong blocker who can latch on and control defenders.
High three-star Aljour Miles II is another nice in-state add, as he is a lengthy receiver with good quickness and body control. Another receiving target with big-play potential, Jakai Anderson, was pulled out of Louisiana. Not quite as big a target, he brings a good blend of speed and elusiveness and could also be productive in the return game. On defense, the addition of DE Hudson Woods is a big plus. Woods shows some savvy as a pass rusher, with active hands and good bend. LB Kenneth Goodwin out of California can be a physical player with the ability to rush the passer as well as make plays in coverage.
Previous ranking: 21
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: OT Micah Smith
Top defensive prospect: DE Carter Gooden
The DeShaun Foster era got off to a rocky start, but the Bruins are showing some ascension. In recruiting, the former running back knows the importance of a good O-line and pulled a pair of ESPN 300 OLs out of Florida in Micah Smith and Johnnie Jones. Known as Champ, Smith was an Under Armour All-American as a junior and has shown he can play against top competition and be a well-rounded OT. Tight end Camden Jensen should help propel the run game as well, as he is a good blocker.
The Bruins have added multiple WRs in this class, including in-state four-star Kenneth Moore. Onetime SMU commit Yahya Gaad has a sturdy, muscular build with a good initial burst and is a DE who can set the edge and be tough against the run. They further bolstered their D-line by reaching into Massachusetts and pulling out Tabor Academy teammates DE Carter Gooden and DT Marcus Almada, a three-star with active hands who plays with good leverage and is a nice addition with the four-star Gooden.
Previous ranking: 22
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: ATH Nasir Rankin
Top defensive prospect: DE Kayden Bennett
Good recruiting starts at home, and an early priority for the Fighting Illini was in-state athlete Rankin. A two-sport star who also excels on the hardwood, the ESPN 300 prospect projects to wide receiver, where he can be a playmaker with good hands and the ability to make defenders miss after the catch. Also from in-state, big man Casey Thomann is one of the top OL prospects in Illinois, and three-star Tony Balanganayi is an interesting big man. He projects to the defensive line, where he has shown he can be disruptive, but with more mass could offer higher upside as an OL.
From within the Big Ten footprint, four-star Cam Thomas (Ohio) is a defender with an outstanding first step and could develop into an edge rusher with big upside. Parker Crim brings good arm length, can move well and has shown he can be explosive off the ball. Tony Williams, out of Florida, is a middle linebacker with good instincts and can be a physical presence between the tackles.
Previous ranking: 23
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: WR Calvin Russell
Top defensive prospect: DE Kamron Wilson
The Fran Brown era in Syracuse certainly isn’t boring. He led the Orange to just their second 10-win season since 2001 behind Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, then landed a solid 2025 recruiting class. Now he’s pushing for more talent in 2026. They surprised many by beating several top programs, including Michigan, for ESPN 300 WR Calvin Russell, a lengthy but smooth target who plans to also play basketball with the Orange.
Four-star defensive end Jarius Rodgers, also out of Florida, is among Brown’s biggest gets so far. The 6-5 220-pounder has tremendous length and an impressive track background. He has considerable physical tools and upside if Syracuse’s coaching staff can harness it. Wilson is another big pull out of Florida; the edge defender has good initial quickness and tallied 17 sacks in 2024.
OT Javeion Cooper has real upside too. He has good size (6-5, 300 pounds) yet plays with impressive balance for someone with his power and contact explosiveness. The Orange also have been active in the mid-Atlantic, landing three receivers from Delaware. Among that group is B.J. Garrett, a big target (6-3, 191 pounds) with good hands who could develop into a player in the mold of Oronde Gadsden, who had similar measurables coming out in the 2021 class.
Previous ranking: 24
ESPN 300 commits: 6
Top offensive prospect: WR Sequel Patterson
Top defensive prospect: S J’Zavien Currence
South Carolina nearly made the College Football Playoff, and Shane Beamer keeps brightening the Gamecocks’ future outlook as well. South Carolina added J’Zavien Currence out of the same high school, South Pointe High School, as former Gamecocks star Jadeveon Clowney. Currence is a versatile defender with his blend of size, versatility and speed. He could stay in the secondary, or if he continues to grow, he could move to linebacker. Also on defense, South Carolina has added several four-star defensive ends, including Keenan Britt. Britt lacks ideal height but has good arm length and initial quickness. He plays with leverage and can be a disruptive presence with his blend of speed and power.
On the heels of a deep and talented 2025 cycle receiver haul, the Gamecocks continue to add young talent to that unit, landing in-state ESPN 300 prospect Sequel Patterson. A multi-sport athlete who can play on either side of the ball, he projects to receiver where he can be a productive target as a quick and sharp route runner. ESPN 300 QB Landon Duckworth, a passer with a strong arm, brings high upside with excellent physical tools to develop. Four-star in-state offensive tackle Zyon Guiles is a 6-foot-5, 295-pound mauler with powerful hands and contact explosiveness, which should bode well even if he’s asked to move inside.
Previous ranking: 26
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: OT Felix Ojo
Top defensive prospect: S Donovan Webb
The Red Raiders have been active in the transfer portal, but Joey McGuire & Co. also remain committed to building their roster through high schools. He pulled off a huge in-state win landing five-star offensive tackle Felix Ojo. It’s the second time McGuire has landed an in-state five-star prospect (Micah Hudson, 2024). Ojo is lean and needs some further development but has elite length, bends well and brings a high ceiling for development. In-state guard Jerald Mays is another nice addition to that unit, as he is a thickly built lineman with good feet.
While the hope is Hudson will still break out and meet expectations, Tech is adding to the receiver room in four-star Chase Campbell, a target with good speed and body control who has amassed over 160 receptions with 35 TDs between his sophomore and junior years. In-state safety Donovan Webb can close well and has strong ball skills to finish and generate turnovers. He was position MVP at this spring’s UA Dallas camp.
Previous ranking: 27
ESPN 300 commits: 4
Top offensive prospect: WR Jordan Clay
Top defensive prospect: DE Jamarion Carlton
Baylor picked up a WR with strong ties to the program in London Smith, whose father was a football and basketball star at Baylor and whose mother was a national champion triple jumper for the Bears. Unsurprisingly, London is a quick, smooth target with good body control. Another key add at WR is Jordan Clay, a nice-sized target at close to 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds who also possesses very good body control.
Further capitalizing on in-state talent, Baylor landed ESPN 300 DE Jamarion Carlton and ESPN 300 CB Jamarion Vincent, who possesses coveted size at roughly 6-2 and blends that with good speed and smooth movements.
Previous ranking: NR
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: QB Bowe Bentley
Top defensive prospect: DE Jake Kreul
Oklahoma’s 2026 recruiting class might be middle of the pack so far in the SEC, but it’s anchored by one of the top quarterback prospects in the country. Bowe Bentley, a four-star signal-caller from Celina (Texas) High, gives the Sooners a dynamic player around whom to build. Bentley is a dual-threat passer who pairs impressive production with the kind of arm talent, mobility and leadership — not to mention a bit of improvisation — that can shape a class.
Bentley is one of several four-stars currently in the group. He’s joined by wide receiver Daniel Odom out of St. John Bosco (Calif.). The 6-foot-2, 190-pound target has length, runs polished routes and has deceptive speed off the line. Oklahoma has layered in a slew of signings along the offensive and defensive fronts, including Brian Harris, a 6-3, 280-pounder out of Florida. He’s a disruptive interior run defender with an impressive motor. Another key addition out of Florida — and a big boost to the class overall — was five-star DE Jake Kreul, who brings an explosive first step, good bend and a relentless motor and should be able to work his way into the mix in Year 1.
Previous ranking: 28
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: WR Dyzier Carter
Top defensive prospect: ATH Chris Hewitt Jr.
The Scarlet Knights have added some top talent to their wide receiver room with Dyzier Carter and Elias Coke, who are longtime commits, having joined the class before the 2024 season started. Carter is a good route runner with strong hands and could be a quick contributor. Coke is a nice target at roughly 6-foot-2.
On defense, Joey Kopec is a two-way player in high school, contributing at RB and LB. He has good range and is effective dropping into coverage. Part of a big June haul, Rinaldo Callaway, out of Georgia, is an interesting addition to keep an eye on. A rangy edge defender, he is raw and needs development but shows a nice ceiling for development and could grow into a disruptive pass rusher. Athlete Chris Hewitt projects to the secondary.
Always active in Florida, the Scarlet Knights landed Reece Beck, a DE with good physical tools, frame, reach and active hands. He can be tough against the run and productive as a pass rusher. They will not need to wait for edge defender Wydeek Collier, a big riser in the 2026 rankings after the spring evaluation period, who reclassified and joined Rutgers’ 2025 class.
Previous ranking: 29
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Briggs Cherry
Top offensive prospect: S Jaydin Broadnax
Jeff Brohm has raised Louisville’s floor with a 19-8 record and an appearance in the ACC championship game two years ago. His 2026 class has the players to keep the program moving in the right direction. ESPN 300 defensive back Jaydin Broadnax, out of Florida, is the biggest get so far. At nearly 6-foot-3, he has great length, balance and body control for a corner. LB Karsten Busch is a nice addition from within the state who will help on defense. He possesses good size and the ability to be a physical, downhill presence against the run. Sam Dawson is another in-state defensive add. He is a DT with active, heavy hands and good power who can help stuff the run.
QB Briggs Cherry has performed well during in-person evaluations, including winning positional MVP during the UA New Orleans camp in March. The strong-armed passer has risen in the rankings, proving to be a key January pickup.
Previous ranking: 30
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: ATH Ryelan Morris
Top defensive prospect: S Lasiah Jackson
The Cardinal are working to bounce back from a 3-9 campaign and their 2026 class is showing the tools to make future improvements. A key pickup was ESPN 300 athlete Ryelan Morris, a flip from Baylor. At 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, he is versatile in how he could be utilized within their offense. He is quick with good hands and best projects as a slot receiver, where he can be dangerous after the catch. They beat out programs like Alabama and Florida State for ESPN 300 DB Lasiah Jackson out of Georgia, a defender with good length and range.
Having had a reputation for fielding excellent OLs not long ago, they are looking to rebuild that unit into a strength with several big men committed. Jalayne Miller, out of Arizona, possesses good feet and flexibility, and Blaise Thomassie could be a sleeper add. He performed very well at a loaded UA New Orleans camp between his junior and senior years. He possesses good body quickness, is very good with his hands and could develop at OG or center.
Previous ranking: 31
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: WR Kortez Rupert
Top defensive prospect: DT Cameron McHaney
Curt Cignetti proved in his first year at Indiana that his program-building skills translate to the Power 4. Now he’s establishing a foundation for sustained success by assembling one of the program’s most promising defensive recruiting classes in recent memory. The Hoosiers have put particular emphasis on the defensive line. Four-star tackle Cameron McHaney, a thickly built interior lineman from IMG Academy, shows initial quickness off the snap and plays with violence and disruption. He projects as a pocket-pusher who can anchor or attack in multiple fronts. Joining him are a pair of four-star defensive ends: Gabe Hill and Kevontay Hugan. Hill, at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds, pairs an explosive first step with strong hands and a relentless motor. Hugan, another high-upside edge rusher, rounds out a talented group of trench commits.
On offense, a top commit is wide receiver Kortez Rupert, a 5-foot-11, 155-pound speedster from East Saint Louis High, the same program that produced Luther Burden. Rupert isn’t the same caliber of prospect, but he shows impressive burst off the line and could grow into a dangerous slot threat.
Previous ranking: 32
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Kayd Coffman
Top defensive prospect: DE Fameitau Siale
Under Jonathan Smith, Michigan State is looking to recapture its status among the Big Ten’s upper-tier programs, which has become harder over the past few years. Having an in-state, homegrown signal-caller to shepherd in a new era would certainly inject more enthusiasm into the program. Enter Kayd Coffman, a 6-foot-2, 195-pounder out of East Kentwood High School in Michigan and an ESPN 300 prospect. Coffman has a quick, snappy release with the footwork and mobility to develop into a dynamic passer on the run. Michigan State will have to work to hold on to him — Colorado and Ohio State were among the programs who checked in on Coffman in the spring — but getting him to campus would be a major win.
Michigan State’s other ESPN 300 commit, Tyren Wortham, could be a target for Coffman. At 6 feet, 180 pounds, he’s a lean and fluid receiver who can surge off the ball with sudden quickness. Wortham can sustain that burst too — he ran a 21.91-second 200-meter dash in late March — and competes in games and practices alike with an impressive no-nonsense attitude. He’s one of several pass-catchers already pledged in Michigan State’s class, joining three-stars Samson Gash and Zachary Washington.
Previous ranking: 33
ESPN 300 commits: 0
Top offensive prospect: OT Bryce Gilmore
Top defensive prospect: LB J.J. Bush
Hot seat talk surrounding head coach Sam Pittman seemed to cool entering the offseason, which will benefit recruiting and help aid a 2026 class that has a solid foundation to build on. Four-star Dequane Prevo out of Texas is a 5-foot-10 receiver that has outstanding balance, body control and short-area burst. Several high-three-star prospects anchor the class, including quarterback Jayvon Gilmore, a tall (6-foot-4) but lean passer with a nice frame to develop. He has a strong arm with a smooth release and was a nice early evaluation and pickup by the Razorbacks.
Colton Yarbrough brings upside at defensive end with good first-step quickness and range. An offensive line coach himself, Pittman has landed in-state big man Tucker Young, who can get push and help create lanes in the run game, and four-star OL Bryce Gilmore, who has good flexibility and range.
Previous ranking: 34
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OG Marek Jin
Top defensive prospect: DE Mason Leak
Bill O’Brien has injected new life into Boston College, in part by returning the program to its local roots. That has continued so far in 2026, with nearly half of its commits hailing from Massachusetts, Connecticut or New York. One of those prospects is Mason Leak, who is an interesting addition that will likely need developmental time but flashes very good raw tools and could be a breakout player. The Eagles added two promising QBs this cycle as well in Femi Babalola and D.J. Bordeaux. The former has a rangy frame, tested well in offseason camp and possesses a strong, accurate arm. The latter has a smooth release and moves well.
At the program’s height, BC built a reputation for developing NFL-caliber talent, particularly along the offensive line and on defense, and the Eagles are working hard to get back to that level. An early commit from in-state is OT Brady Bekkenhuis, who is a tenacious blocker with upside. Four-star Marek Jin is a flexible OL prospect who plays with good leverage, and with continued development and focus, Jin could be a key contributor in the trenches.
Previous ranking: 35
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OT Andrew Trout
Top defensive prospect: CB Justin Hopkins
The Gophers are not a class that will be heavy with ESPN 300 commits, but they’re assembling a strong class anchored by a plethora of high three-star prospects. CBs Justin Hopkins and Chance Payne are good examples, as is edge defender Aaden Aytch. A prospect with a lean build, Aytch needs to continue to develop, but he brings a high ceiling as he has good length, displays wiry strength, can redirect well and be a factor in pursuit.
Beefing up the offensive line, they have several commits, led by Andrew Trout, the No. 1 player in the state and an ESPN 300 OT. Another key in-state keep was Roman Voss, who was also pursued by Alabama. Listed as an athlete, he has experience as a QB, but projects to TE and can be a versatile weapon for the Minnesota offense.
Previous ranking: 25
ESPN 300 commits: 4
Top offensive prospect: RB Damarius Yates
Top defensive prospect: DE Landon Barnes
The Rebels have relied heavily on the transfer portal, but by no means have turned their back on bringing in young talent. They signed a top-20 class for 2025 as well one of the top 10 newcomer classes for the last cycle. Damarius Yates was a key in-state keep, as he rushed for more than 1,300 yards as a junior for Kemper County and caught 31 passes. He possesses explosive lateral movement with the acceleration to separate from defenders. Corey Barber is a receiver with good speed and can be a vertical threat as well as create plays on jet sweeps.
On defense, DEs Landon Barnes and Carmelow Reed both need further development but bring good tools. Barnes is out of one of the top programs in Texas (Duncanville) and uses his hands well and can set the edge. Reed has a big frame and possesses good first-step quickness.
Previous ranking: 36
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: ATH Damon Ferguson
Top defensive prospect: OLB Reston Lehman
Pat Narduzzi and Pittsburgh haven’t secured multiple ESPN 300 commits in one class since 2021. If things hold, that’s set to change in 2026. The Panthers landed commitments from a pair of four-stars: outside linebacker Reston Lehman, out of Pennsylvania, and athlete Damon Ferguson. Lehman has solid size at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds and has the versatility to get after quarterbacks off the edge but also drop into coverage. He’s comfortable tracking the quarterback as a pass rusher and has already begun to show the makings of multiple pass-rush moves. He’s one of several intriguing linebacker additions, alongside three-star outside linebacker Isaiah Simmons and three-star inside linebacker Desmond Johnson out of Miami.
Pitt hasn’t produced a 1,000-yard rusher since Israel Abanikanda in 2022. Ferguson certainly has the raw tools to change that. The Maryland native is a quick runner who can change direction without skipping a beat and runs low to the ground. His suddenness and speed make him an attractive option in the pass game too and could even translate to work in the defensive secondary if needed.
Previous ranking: 37
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OT Kaden Snyder
Top defensive prospect: S J.J. Dunnigan
Lance Leipold is no stranger to building a program and is working to fortify Kansas’ 2026 class. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, in-state defensive back J.J. Dunnigan has the length to reroute receivers off the line and the straight-line speed to hang with them on vertical routes. The Jayhawks have a few offensive linemen committed, led by 6-foot-5 Kansas native Kaden Snyder, who has an enticing combination of athleticism, pass-protection skills and upside if he can continue to fill out his frame.
The Jalon Daniels era enters its sixth and final season in 2025. In-state three-star commit Jaylen Mason is an intriguing developmental option at QB.
Previous ranking: 38
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: RB Victor Santino
Top defensive prospect: DE Camron Brooks
In Justin Wilcox’s eight seasons, Cal has been steady, albeit unspectacular, never losing more than eight games but never winning more than eight. If the Golden Bears’ 2026 class is any indication, their coaching staff certainly isn’t leaving any stone unturned in their pursuit to raise the ceiling of the program. Their lone ESPN 300 recruit, defensive end Camron Brooks, hails from Georgia and picked Cal after taking visits to Clemson, Florida State and Ohio State. At 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, Brooks has excellent length and initial burst. He’s one of two players from Thomas County Central High School who have committed to Cal in the class, joining interior lineman Artem Korchagin.
Cal also dipped into Hawai’i to land four prospects: tight end Taimane Purcell, offensive guard Kamo’i Huihui-White, quarterback Nainoa Lopes and offensive tackle Esaiah Wong. The Bears even tapped into the NFL Academy’s European program, landing tight end Luca Wolf out of London, who stands an impressive 6-foot-6, 240 pounds. The class could gel around in-state quarterback Brady Palmer, a three-star pocket passer out of San Diego. He’s a poised, accurate passer who has enough athleticism to extend plays and has been a frequent competitor on the camp circuit.
Previous ranking: 39
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Oscar Rios
Top defensive prospect: DE Prince Williams
Arizona’s program has oscillated between incredible highs, winning 10 games two seasons ago and sending Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL, and painful lows, with a four-win campaign in Brent Brennan’s first season. One of the few constants amid plenty of program upheaval has been quarterback Noah Fifita, who is sixth in program history in passing yards (5,955) and seventh in touchdowns (44). Arizona’s 2026 class could have Fifita’s successor.
The Wildcats landed a commitment from four-star California native Oscar Rios in late June. An ESPN 300 QB, Rios has developed from a tall, lanky underclassman into a strong-armed, confident passer capable of driving the ball vertically while winning over teammates and coaches with his competitive demeanor. Landing Rios was a big win, and Arizona continued the momentum in early July, landing a commitment from fellow four-star Prince Williams. The Bishop Gorman defensive end stands 6-foot-2, 255 pounds and doesn’t back down from larger offensive tackles, nor does he cede reps in camp settings. He has the type of competitive nature and versatility a defensive line room can rally around. That duo forms an impressive foundation for Arizona to continue building out its 2026 class.
Sports
Red Sox in must-win mode? Are Yankees back? What you should — and shouldn’t — believe in the American League
-
David Schoenfield
A few days ago, we checked in on what to believe and what not to in the National League. Well, the American League is perhaps even more chaotic.
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are in the midst of a crucial four-game series at Yankee Stadium — with the final game on “Sunday Night Baseball” at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams will try to make a statement and inch closer to the Toronto Blue Jays at the top of the division while staying ahead in the wild-card race.
The Blue Jays had been hot — except they just lost a series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The Houston Astros were recently shut out three games in a row (and four out of five) but kept their slim hold on first place in the AL West because the Seattle Mariners went 2-7 on a recent road trip, including a brutal three-game wipeout in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers might be back on track, and the Kansas City Royals are suddenly surging.
Let’s check on the current states of overreaction in the AL and make some verdicts.
Overreaction: Judge! Bellinger! Stanton! The Yankees are back, baby!
Calm down there, tiger. The Yankees took two of three from Minnesota. They scored 24 runs in sweeping St. Louis, and then they bashed nine home runs in a win over Tampa Bay.
The middle of the order is leading the way. Aaron Judge is back off the injured list. Cody Bellinger has proven to be one of the most unheralded pickups of last offseason, on his way to his most home runs since his MVP season of 2019. The big shocker has been Giancarlo Stanton, though. He missed the first two-plus months of the season because of what was described as a double tennis elbow, as if he had spent the offseason working on his backhand slice, preparing for the French Open. In 46 games since returning in mid-June, he’s hitting .311/.389/..642, producing what is easily his highest OPS since his MVP season of 2017, and has been so hot that the Yankees played him a few games in right field to keep his bat in the lineup (allowing Judge to DH while working on returning to the field) even though Stanton is less mobile than the monuments in center field.
So, it has been a nice stretch after losing records in June and July. But there are still issues. Max Fried, who starts Friday night, is scuffling, with a 6.80 ERA over his past eight starts. He hasn’t had a quality start since June. The back of the bullpen is still sorting out things, as David Bednar has replaced Devin Williams as the closer (and blew the save Wednesday, although the Yankees won in extra innings), but Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, two other trade deadline acquisitions, haven’t made an impact. There could still be a terrific bullpen here, especially if Williams gets straightened out, but let’s hold off on declaring that.
And Judge still hasn’t played the outfield. Though manager Aaron Boone played Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there is less ground to cover, he hasn’t played Stanton in the field on the road, leaving him as a part-time player for now. Ryan McMahon, the team’s other big deadline move, has been getting on base but has one home run in 22 games with the Yankees.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. You can make the argument that if everything was clicking for the Yankees, they have the most upside and deepest roster in the AL: a potential ace in Fried, a potential No. 2 in Carlos Rodon, a potential wipeout bullpen, the best hitter in the sport in Judge and power up and down the lineup. They haven’t played that well against the top teams in the AL, however, including a combined 4-13 record against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and Fried’s current struggles are a big concern. Let’s not put the Yankees in the playoffs yet.
Overreaction: The Red Sox have to win this series against the Yankees
The likeliest scenario in a four-game series between two evenly matched teams is, of course, a split. That would leave the Red Sox where they started the series, one game behind the Yankees and in third place in the AL East, but potentially in a much tighter wild-card picture. Still, after winning their first five games in August, the Red Sox went 3-7 in their past 10 games entering the Yankees series, so that makes this series a little more pressure-packed even for a late-August Red Sox-Yankees showdown.
Most frustrating, the Red Sox lost two games in extra innings in that 3-7 stretch and also lost both games that Garrett Crochet started. He had one bad start against the Houston Astros, lasting four innings in his worst start of the season, and then the bullpen blew a 3-1 lead to the Miami Marlins as Greg Weissert and Steven Matz allowed ninth-inning home runs when Aroldis Chapman was unavailable to close. Chapman had pitched the previous games and had thrown only 14 pitches over the two outings, so it was a dubious decision by manager Alex Cora (Chapman had appeared in three consecutive games earlier in the season).
One key for the Red Sox down the stretch: How much will Cora push his top pitchers? Crochet is already past his innings total of 2024 and hasn’t pitched on four days’ rest since June 18, with rest periods of seven and nine days during that span. Chapman has had a dominant season but has pitched just 48 innings in 53 appearances and has rarely made even back-to-back outings. The Yankees series begins a stretch for Boston of 13 games in 13 days and 19 in 20, so Cora will have to make some decisions with his rotation.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Is there urgency to turn things around? Of course. Is this a do-or-die series? No, it’s still too early to make that claim, especially with the Red Sox still in a solid wild-card position (granted, chasing down the Blue Jays remains the ultimate goal). On the other hand, this eight-game road trip to New York and Baltimore looms large, given the Red Sox are just 28-34 on the road– and the Orioles have been playing better of late. A bad road trip could be disastrous. Check back next week.
Overreaction: The Blue Jays — not the Tigers — are now the best team in the AL
The Blue Jays have gone 48-26 since May 28 — the second-best record in the majors behind Milwaukee since that date. They have the highest OPS in the majors since then and only the Brewers are close to them in runs scored (Boston has scored the third-most runs and is 50 runs behind the Blue Jays since May 28). It hasn’t been just Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette either. George Springer and Addison Barger have mashed, Daulton Varsho has had a big August and role players such as Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, Ernie Clement and Tyler Heineman have been excellent. Toronto has a sneaky deep lineup.
Oh, and Max Scherzer has suddenly reeled off five straight quality starts.
On the other hand, the Tigers seem back on track after that stretch in July when they lost 11 of 12. They’ve won four series in a row, granted, three of those were against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and diminished Minnesota Twins, but they also just swept the Astros, knocking around Framber Valdez in the series finale Wednesday and tossing shutouts in the other two wins. Charlie Morton has helped stabilize the rotation with three excellent starts in his four turns with the Tigers, and the bullpen — with added reinforcements from the trade deadline — has been much better in August after struggling in July. Kerry Carpenter has also been mashing since his return in late July.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. If you’re buying Scherzer and Eric Lauer as frontline starters and all the surprising offensive performances, then it’s not unreasonable to suggest the Blue Jays are the team to beat. Some of those offensive numbers are skewed by that crazy series at Coors Field when they scored 45 runs in three games, however, and when considering the entire season, the Tigers still have the better run differential (as do the Yankees and Red Sox). The Jays’ bandwagon is gaining momentum, but the AL still feels like one big group of teams that will all finish 92-70.
Overreaction: The Astros can’t hit, and the Mariners can’t pitch
Does anyone want to win the AL West? It doesn’t seem like it (you can even throw in the Texas Rangers, who were tied with the Mariners on July 30 but have gone 6-13 since then in playing a difficult August schedule). The Astros are hitting just .226 in August with a .649 OPS. Carlos Correa has been their best hitter, so it’s hard to criticize that trade, but Jesus Sanchez has hit .150 with one RBI for Houston while rookie Cam Smith has fallen into a slump. Getting back Yordan Alvarez, who just began a rehab assignment, will be a big lift if he’s healthy.
As for the Mariners, they have their top five starters healthy for the first time, but this road trip exposed their secret: Their rotation is vastly overrated. The Mariners are 26th in rotation ERA on the road. Bryan Woo is the only starter of those five with an ERA under 5.00 on the road. Logan Gilbert has a 2.22 ERA at home and 6.00 on the road. Luis Castillo‘s road OPS is nearly 300 points higher than it is at home. They pitch well at home because T-Mobile Park is such a pitcher-friendly park. The Mariners still have two road trips remaining: a nine-game trip to Cleveland, Tampa and Atlanta, and then a six-game trip to Kansas City and Houston.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Both concerns are legitimate. The Astros’ offense hasn’t been terrible this season, but it rates as middle of the pack, and Correa is replacing the injured Isaac Paredes, so he’s not an upgrade. Seattle’s rotation struggles on the road — and lack of bullpen depth — are perhaps an even bigger concern. The season series is tied 5-5. FanGraphs projects a dead heat for the division title. The teams will meet once more in Houston during the second-to-last weekend of the regular season — and that series might decide the AL West.
Overreaction: The Royals will make the playoffs
As the Red Sox, Astros and Mariners have stumbled over the past 10 games, it opened the door for the Royals, who won five in a row and seven of eight to inch closer in the wild-card race (with Cleveland right there, as well). Bobby Witt Jr. is raking in August, Vinnie Pasquantino has been crushing home runs and, further proof of the unpredictability of the trade deadline, Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier, two seemingly minor pickups, have been outstanding.
The Royals are doing this without Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, but Noah Cameron continues to pitch well and fellow rookie Ryan Bergert, who came over in the Freddy Fermin trade, has delivered three good starts. Just like last year’s team, the Royals have that spark of optimism rising at the right time.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. We’ll learn more about the Royals with this weekend’s series in Detroit and then the rematch next weekend in Kansas City. Otherwise, however, their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way, including a season-ending road trip to Anaheim and Sacramento against two teams that will be playing out the string. The vibes are good. The Royals will sneak in as a wild-card team.
Sports
Overreactions to the dog days of August: Brewers’ dominance, Mets’ struggles and more from the NL
-
David Schoenfield
Whew. That was some weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers kept winning — until they finally lost. The New York Mets kept losing — until they finally won. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big statement, the Philadelphia Phillies suffered a crushing injury, and the Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats remain cold.
What’s going on with these National League contenders? With fan bases in euphoria or despair, let’s make some verdicts on those current states of overreaction.
Overreaction: The Brewers are unquestionably MLB’s best team
“Unquestionably” is a loaded word, especially since we’re writing this right after the Brewers reeled off 14 consecutive victories and won a remarkable 29 of 33 games. They became just the 11th team this century to win at least 14 in a row, and you don’t fluke your way to a 14-game winning streak: Each of the previous 10 teams to win that many in a row made the playoffs, and four won 100 games. Baseball being baseball, however, none won the World Series.
The Brewers were just the sixth team this century to win 29 of 33. Cleveland won 30 of 33 in 2017, riding a 22-game winning streak that began in late August. That team, which finished with 102 wins but lost the wild-card series to the New York Yankees, resembled these Brewers as a small-market, scrappy underdog. The Dodgers in 2017 and 2022 and the A’s in 2001 and 2002 also won 29 of 33. None of these teams won the World Series, either.
For the season, the Brewers have five more wins than the Detroit Tigers while easily leading the majors in run differential at plus-168, with the Cubs a distant second at plus-110. Those figures seem to suggest the Brewers are clearly the best team, with a nice balance of starting pitching (No. 1 in ERA), relief pitching (No. 10 in ERA and No. 8 in win probability added), offense (No. 1 in runs scored), defense (No. 7 in defensive runs saved) and baserunning (No. 2 in stolen bases). None of their position players were All-Stars, but other than shortstop Joey Ortiz the Brewers roll out a lineup that usually features eight average-or-better hitters, with Christian Yelich heating up and Andrew Vaughn on a tear since he joined the club.
On the other hand, via Clay Davenport’s third-order wins and losses, which project a team’s winning percentage based on underlying statistics adjusted for quality of opponents, the Brewers are neck-and-neck with the Cubs, with both teams a few projected wins behind the Yankees. Essentially, the Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than might otherwise be expected based on statistics. Indeed, the Brewers lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position while holding their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.
Those underlying stats, though, include the first four games of the season, when the Brewers went 0-4 and allowed 47 runs. Several of those relievers who got pounded early on are no longer in the bullpen, and ever since the Brewers sorted out their relief arms, the pen has been outstanding: It’s sixth in ERA and third in lowest OPS allowed since May 1.
Then factor in that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation (although Misiorowski struggled in his last start following a two-week stint on the injured list). The Brewers are also the best baserunning team in the majors, which leads to a few extra runs above expectation.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers look like the most well-rounded team in the majors, particularly if Yelich and Vaughn keep providing power in the middle of the order. They have played well against good teams: 6-0 against the Dodgers, 3-0 against the Phillies and Boston Red Sox, 4-2 against the New York Mets and 7-3 against the Cincinnati Reds. They’re 5-4 against the Cubs with four games left in the five-game series. None of this guarantees a World Series, but they’re on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team going right now.
Overreaction: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles are a big concern
On July 30, PCA went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs in a 10-3 victory for the Cubs over the Brewers. He was hitting .272/.309/.559, playing electrifying defense in center field, and was the leader in the NL MVP race with 5.7 fWAR, more than a win higher than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Brewers had started to get hot, but the Cubs, after leading the NL Central most of the season, were just a game behind in the standings.
July 31 was an off day. Then the calendar flipped to August and Crow-Armstrong entered a slump that has featured no dying quails, no gorks, no ground balls with eyes. He’s 8-for-52 in August with no home runs, one RBI and two runs scored. The Cubs, averaging 5.3 runs per game through the end of July, are at just 2.75 runs per game in August and have seen the Brewers build a big lead in the division.
Crow-Armstrong’s slump isn’t necessarily a surprise. Analysts have been predicting regression for some time due to one obvious flaw in PCA’s game: He swings at everything. He has the fifth-highest chase rate among qualified batters, swinging at over 42% of pitches out of the strike zone. It seemed likely that it was only a matter of time before pitchers figured out how to exploit Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness.
Doubling down on the regression predictions, PCA has produced strong power numbers despite a below-average hard-hit rate (44th percentile) and average exit velocity (47th percentile). Although raw power isn’t always necessary to produce extra-base power — see Jose Altuve — those metrics were a red flag that PCA might have been overachieving.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. OK, here’s the odd thing: PCA’s chase rate has improved in August to just 28%, but that hasn’t translated to success. His hard-hit rate isn’t much lower than it was the rest of the season (although his average fly ball distance has dropped about 20 feet). His struggles against left-handers are real: After slugging .600 against them in April, he has hit .186 and slugged .390 against them since May 1. He’ll start hitting again at some point, but it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to hit like he did from April through July.
It’s not all on PCA, however. Kyle Tucker has been just as bad in August (.148, no home runs, one RBI). Michael Busch is hitting .151. Seiya Suzuki has only one home run. Those four had carried the offense, and all are scuffling at once. For the Cubs to rebound, they need this entire group to get back on track. Put it this way: The Cubs have won just three of their past eight series — and those were against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.
Overreaction: The Mets are doomed and will miss the playoffs
On July 27, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants to improve to 62-44, holding a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. According to FanGraphs, New York’s odds of winning the division stood at 55% and its chances of making the playoffs were nearly 97%. A few days later, the Mets reinforced the bullpen — the club’s biggest weakness — with Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers at the trade deadline (after already acquiring Gregory Soto).
It’s never that easy with the Mets though, is it? The San Diego Padres swept them. The Cleveland Guardians swept them. The Brewers swept them. Helsley lost three games and blew a lead in another outing. The rotation has a 6.22 ERA in August. The Mets lost 14 of 16 before finally taking the final two games against the Seattle Mariners this past weekend to temporarily ease the panic level from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division and the Mets have dropped to the third wild-card position, just one game ahead of the Reds. The team with the highest payroll in the sport is in very real danger of missing the playoffs.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The bullpen issues are still a concern given Helsley’s struggles, and Rogers has fanned just one of the 42 batters he has faced since joining the Mets. Still, this team is loaded with talent, as reflected in FanGraphs’ playoffs odds, which gave the Mets an 86% chance of making the postseason entering Monday (with the Reds at 14%). One note, however: The Reds lead the season series 2 games to 1, which gives them the tiebreaker edge if the teams finish with the same record. A three-game set in Cincinnati in early September looms as one of the biggest series the rest of the season. Mets fans have certainly earned the right to brood over the team’s current state of play, but the team remains favored to at least squeak out a wild card.
Overreaction: Zack Wheeler’s absence is a big problem for the Phillies
The Phillies’ ace just went on the IL because of a blood clot near his right shoulder, with no timetable on a potential return. The injury is serious enough that his availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Manager Rob Thomson said the team has enough rotation depth to battle on without Wheeler, but there are some other issues there as well:
• Ranger Suarez has a 5.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.
• Aaron Nola was activated from the IL on Sunday to replace Wheeler for his first MLB start in three months and gave up six runs in 2⅓ innings, raising his season ERA to 6.92.
• Taijuan Walker has a 3.34 ERA but also a 4.73 FIP and probably isn’t someone you would feel comfortable starting in a playoff series.
• Even Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent all season, with a 4.21 ERA.
Minus Wheeler, that arguably leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the team’s only sure-thing reliable starter at the moment. Though a trip to the playoffs certainly looks secure, all this opens the door for the Mets to make it a race for the division title.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Making the playoffs is one thing, but it’s also about peaking at the right time, and given the scary nature of Wheeler’s injury, the Phillies might not end up peaking when they need to. Nola certainly can’t be counted on right now and Suarez has suddenly struggled a bit to miss bats. There’s time here for Nola and Suarez to fix things, and the bullpen has been strengthened with the additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, but even with Wheeler, the Phillies are just 22-18 since the beginning of July. Indeed, their ultimate hopes might rest on an offense that has let them down the past two postseasons and hasn’t been great this season aside from Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t score runs, it won’t matter who is on the mound.
Overreaction: The Dodgers just buried the Padres with their three-game sweep
It was a statement series: The Dodgers, battled, bruised and slumping, had fallen a game behind the Padres in the NL West. But they swept the Padres at Dodger Stadium behind stellar outings from Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell, and a clutch Mookie Betts home run to cap a rally from a 4-0 deficit. Still the kings of the NL West, right?
After all, the Dodgers are finally rolling out that dream rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw are all healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. Only Roki Sasaki is missing. Yamamoto has been solid all season, Ohtani ramped up to 80 pitches in his last start, Glasnow has a 2.50 ERA since returning from the IL in July, Snell has reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts, and even Kershaw, while not racking up many strikeouts, has lowered his season ERA to 3.01. That group should carry the Dodgers to their 12th division title in the past 13 seasons.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Calm down. One great series does not mean the Dodgers are suddenly fixed or that the Padres will fade away. The Dodgers’ bullpen is still battling injuries, Betts still has a sub-.700 OPS and injuries have forced them to play Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Buddy Kennedy in the infield. Check back after next weekend, when the Padres host the Dodgers for their final regular-season series of 2025.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment3 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike