2026 recruiting class rankings: Oklahoma cracks the latest top 40
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Craig Haubert
The 2025 college football season is upon us, so it’s time for past top prospects to step up and make their mark.
While the focus shifts to the field and very few ESPN 300 prospects remain uncommitted, the recruiting wheel keeps on spinning and has resulted in some movers, including a new entry into our updated top 40 rankings.
And, of course, recruiting is always full of unexpected twists and turns, so the race for positioning in the rankings, including at the very top, never seems settled until signing day in December makes it all official.
New this ranking: Oklahoma
Out: TCU
(Previous update: Aug. 8)
Previous ranking: 1
ESPN 300 commits: 19
Top offensive prospect: OT Keenyi Pepe
Top defensive prospect: CB Elbert Hill
No program has more 2026 momentum than USC under Lincoln Riley, especially after hiring general manager Chad Bowden away from Notre Dame. The Trojans have double-digit ESPN 300 commits, with several joining the list since January. That includes two five-stars to start May in Pepe and Hill, and a pair of four-star commits who flipped from Big Ten rival Oregon: in-state defensive lineman Tomuhini Topui and quarterback Jonas Williams. Topui is a physical, aggressive defensive tackle who could develop into an interior pass-rushing headache for opposing offenses, and Williams is a true dual-threat signal-caller.
USC also made it a point to beef up in the trenches. It pulled four-star defensive tackle Jaimeon Winfield out of Texas, landed in-state defensive end Simote Katoanga and traveled to Utah to snag Corner Canyon offensive lineman Esun Tafa. To further bolster the O-line, the Trojans landed Pepe out of IMG Academy. He is huge at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds, but is light on his feet as well as physical and can become a standout tackle. On the perimeter, they will not have to wait for in-state defender R.J. Sermons as the ESPN 300 CB reclassified to 2025 and will join the Trojans this fall. For 2026, they pulled Elbert Hill, the top-ranked corner, out of the Midwest. Hill possesses elite speed, having been measured at over 22 mph in game play.
Previous ranking: 2
ESPN 300 commits: 19
Top offensive prospect: QB Jared Curtis
Top defensive prospect: CB Justice Fitzpatrick
The Bulldogs have been a staple among the top three recruiting classes during Kirby Smart’s tenure and look to be a contender to do so again in 2026. A big step toward finishing near the top is bringing five-star quarterback Curtis back into the mix. After a decommitment, the Bulldogs were able to fend off other suitors, most notably Oregon, and give themselves a potential impact QB for the future. Curtis might need to adjust to a relatively steep jump in competition level, but he has elite physical tools, including a smooth, quick release and the ability to change arm angles.
With three of their top four pass catchers from 2024 having moved on and the fourth likely to leave after this season, Georgia is bringing in new receiving targets with speed. Brady Marchese has been recorded hitting over 22 mph in game play. Kaiden Prothro can give the Bulldogs a matchup nightmare as he possesses an excellent blend of size, speed and body control. After signing two ESPN 300 TEs in their 2025 class, the Dawgs continue to restock there, adding Lincoln Keyes, who with his big frame and good body control can offer a wide catch radius.
On defense, the Bulldogs have had 11 first-round NFL draft picks over the past five years and they continue to infuse that unit with top talent, including two of the top DBs in the country in Fitzpatrick and Zechariah Fort. Fort is a safety with good range who can be active in run support. Fitzpatrick is the younger brother of former Alabama great Minkah Fitzpatrick; his blend of size and speed gives him equally promising impact potential.
Previous ranking: 3
ESPN 300 commits: 15
Top offensive prospect: RB K.J. Edwards
Top defensive prospect: ATH Brandon Arrington
Mike Elko has quickly proved he can identify and recruit at a high level. He has worked fertile recruiting grounds outside his home territory, including Georgia, Florida, California. He went out west to land the nation’s No. 1-ranked athlete Brandon Arrington, whose speed could allow him to have an impact on either side of the ball, though he projects to corner in College Station. He pulled out Georgia ESPN 300 DLs Jordan Carter and Bryce Perry-Wright as well as landing fellow four-star defensive tackle Jermaine Kinsler out of New Jersey.
The Aggies bolstered their rushing attack with a pair of in-state running backs in K.J. Edwards and Jonathan Hatton, who has an excellent blend of size (200 pounds) and speed (he was measured hitting 21 mph on film). Edwards has been very productive in high school, rushing for 1,700 yards in each of his last two seasons.
Elko has also been able to unearth talent from more unlikely places, such as quarterback Helaman Casuga out of Utah. Casuga is not a big, physical prospect at roughly 6 feet, but he has a live arm and can get the ball out quickly. Victor Singleton, one of the top prospects in Ohio, was a nice flip from Illinois. He has clocked a 21-mph max speed and has the type of quickness and excellent feet to thrive in man coverage at corner.
Previous ranking: 4
ESPN 300 commits: 14
Top offensive prospect: QB Dia Bell
Top defensive prospect: DE Richard Wesley
As Texas tackles the 2025 season led by one of the most high-profile signings in recent years in quarterback Arch Manning, the Longhorns continue to build for the future, including another five-star QB. Dia Bell brings valuable experience, having faced quality competition during his time in high school. He has shown good accuracy and deep-ball touch, and as a junior threw for more than 2,500 yards and completed 70% of his passes.
The Horns also added potential targets in ESPN 300 WRs Chris Stewart and Jermaine Bishop Jr. Stewart brings big-play speed, and Bishop is a quick, fluid target who can create after the catch. Their backfield gained more five-star talent with Derrek Cooper, a versatile running back who blends excellent size and speed and can also be a receiving threat. To protect their new offensive weapons, they have also landed some top in-state OLs, including top-10 OG Nicolas Robertson, a powerful big man with good feet.
Texas hit the transfer portal hard to address needs along the defensive line for this season, especially interior DL, but there are young players for that unit in the 2026 class. One-time Oregon commit Richard Wesley was a big add as he is explosive and powerful and could be a versatile and impactful presence in the trenches. Dylan Berymon has been a standout on the camp circuit the past two offseasons and seems to keep rising to whatever challenge is thrown at him. Corey Wells is another 300-pounder who can bend well and be disruptive.
Previous ranking: 5
ESPN 300 commits: 18
Top offensive prospect: TE Ian Premer
Top defensive prospect: CB Khary Adams
Notre Dame started the year off slowly on the recruiting trail but added several key ESPN 300 additions in the spring and summer months, including important defensive additions. Rodney Dunham was one of the first on board and is an edge player with a quick first step. The secondary will benefit from adding some length to that unit. Ayden Pouncey is a rangy safety with a 6-foot-3 frame that could allow him to grow into an outside linebacker role. Khary Adams is one of the top cornerback prospects in the nation as he possesses an excellent blend of size (6-foot-2) and speed (21.3 mph max speed).
On offense, ESPN 300 OT Gregory Patrick joined a class that already featured several top offensive line prospects including top-10 tackle Tyler Merrill, who at 6-foot-7 and 335 pounds is a massive presence with physicality and power in the run game. This group collectively can continue the school’s strong reputation as an offensive line factory.
The Irish also landed Thomas Davis Jr., whose father is former Panthers star Thomas Davis, and four-star quarterback Noah Grubbs, who already has shown impressive footwork and a sound release from the pocket. Their QB of the future will benefit from multiple targets added in this class, including TE Ian Premer. Among the wide receivers in the group is high-three star Devin Fitzgerald, the son of former NFL great Larry Fitzgerald. Like his father, he is a good-sized target at nearly 6-foot-2 and has shown to be productive, with more than 50 receptions and nine TDs as a junior.
Previous ranking: 6
ESPN 300 commits: 12
Top offensive prospect: TE Kendre’ Harrison
Top defensive prospect: S Jett Washington
Dan Lanning’s run of sustained excellence in Eugene rolls on with Oregon’s 2026 class. Reeling in five-star tight end Kendre’ Harrison in November set the tone. The 6-6, 250-pound tight end is a dynamic two-sport athlete with an exceptional catch radius and is a nightmare for opposing defenses in the red zone. The Ducks also added a five-star prospect to their defense with the big-framed and rangy Jett Washington. A fluid safety with good ball skills and the ability to win jump-ball battles, he can also be a physical presence in the secondary. The Ducks added four-star defensive back Xavier Lherisse, who clocked an impressive 1.62 10-yard dash and 4.49 40-yard dash at the Under Armour Miami camp. Four-star running back Tradarian Ball adds explosiveness and excellent ball skills.
While the commitment of five-star DE Richard Wesley was short-lived, the Ducks still have a strong defensive line foundation within this class. They secured the top in-state big man in ESPN 300 DT Tony Cumberland, who has good burst and power, and can be a disruptive presence. DE Dutch Horisk will arrive from one of the top programs in California (St. John Bosco), where he has been a multiyear starter who uses his hands well; as a junior, he had nine TFLs and four sacks.
Oregon also has bolstered its O-line unit. Leading that group is five-star Immanuel Iheanacho, who is a massive presence at around 6-foot-7, 350 pounds and can push defenders around. The Ducks also pulled a pair of OLs from former conference foe Cal, in ESPN 300 OG Tommy Tofi and Koloi Keli.
Previous rank: 7
ESPN 300 commits: 10
Top offensive prospect: RB Ezavier Crowell
Top defensive prospect: S Jireh Edwards
It took some time for Alabama’s class to find its footing, but an active June brought the Tide into the mix among the top classes in the country. They kept one of the top running backs in the class at home by landing Ezavier Crowell, an aggressive runner who possesses good power and vision.
The defense is benefitting from some big pickups, including pulling several ESPN 300 defenders out of Georgia. Xavier Griffin has a lengthy and broad frame to develop and can get up field and bend the edge. From the same high school (Gainesville), the Tide snagged DE Jamarion Matthews, who has a stockier build but can also bend well and get after the quarterback.
They also added a pair of top-10 CBs in Jorden Edmonds, also out of the Peach State, and in-state Zyan Gibson, who has posted consistent mid-4.4 40s on the camp circuit. The summer success continues into July as the Tide added five-star Jireh Edwards to their secondary. At roughly 6-foot-2 and more than 200 pounds with excellent testing numbers, Edwards can be a physical and versatile defensive back.
Previous ranking: 8
ESPN 300 commits: 13
Top offensive prospect: WR Chris Henry Jr.
Top defensive prospect: S Blaine Bradford
Ryan Day has the luxury of building his 2026 class around one of the most coveted players in the country: five-star receiver Henry, whose father, the late Chris Henry, was a star receiver for West Virginia and the Cincinnati Bengals. Henry Jr. stands 6-6 and has a combination of length and quickness rarely seen from high school receivers.
The rest of the Buckeyes’ class has started to take shape around Henry. The team has added a handful of ESPN 300 prospects since March, including Bradford out of Louisiana and linebacker Simeon Caldwell out of Florida. C.J. Sanna is a prospect we like on tape; he is a big, physical linebacker with excellent range and is a bit of an underrated pickup for this talented class. In-state offensive tackle Maxwell Riley is impressive changing direction and finishes plays with the type of nastiness that will endear him to fans in Columbus.
Previous ranking: 9
ESPN 300 commits: 10
Top offensive prospect: WR Tristen Keys
Top defensive prospect: DT Lamar Brown
The Tigers are tough to beat for in-state talent, and they built the foundation for one of the top classes in the country with homegrown recruits. A great example of that came when they fended off several top suitors, including Texas A&M, and kept top-ranked prospect Lamar Brown at home. Projected to the defensive line, he is an agile and flexible big man who also could excel, if needed, as an offensive lineman.
From outside the state, Tristen Keys from nearby Mississippi delivered Brian Kelly and his staff their first five-star of the 2026 cycle. As of now, the 6-3 Keys would be the highest-rated receiver to make it to Baton Rouge since Kayshon Boutte. Keys is a long strider with long arms who prioritizes winning and is a favorite of coaches and teammates alike.
LSU also added wide receiver Jabari Mack (a strong route runner) and offensive tackle Brysten Martinez, a pair of in-state four-star recruits who bolster a class that now features more than half of the top 10 players from Louisiana. That includes a pair of teammates from Edna Karr High: DT Richard Anderson, a stout presence at more than 300 pounds with good initial quickness, and Aiden Hall, a safety with good length, speed and downhill physicality. Though much of their recruiting success is from within their primary recruiting footprint, the Tigers did go out west to land ESPN 300 CB Havon Finney Jr. A 2027 prospect who reclassified into the 2026 class, he has shown he can be physical in press coverage but also brings excellent speed to be able to run with receivers.
Previous ranking: 10
ESPN 300 commits: 13
Top offensive prospect: RB Savion Hiter
Top defensive prospect: DE Carter Meadows
The Wolverines signed the No. 1 QB for the 2025 cycle in Bryce Underwood and he carries high expectations, but they continue to add talent to the position and landed ESPN 300 signal-caller Brady Smigiel. The onetime Florida State commit is not only an accurate passer, but he also plays with the confidence and swagger that will be needed battling with five-star Underwood. Michigan further bolstered its backfield by landing No. 2 RB Savion Hiter, a runner with a nice blend of size (6 feet, 200 pounds), power and speed who can also catch the ball well.
After losing two DLs in the first round of the NFL draft, Michigan added several DLs to this class, including ESPN 300 DEs Titan Davis and McHale Blade. Four-star DE Tariq Boney is a player to keep an eye on. He lacks ideal length but can be a well-rounded technician and a quick contributor. In addition to pulling Boney out of the nation’s capital, Michigan also landed Carter Meadows, a rangy edge defender who can bend well.
After scoring from off the beaten path with former standout TE Colston Loveland (Idaho), the Wolverines hope to strike big again from that same region with Matt Ludwig out of Montana. He is a versatile player with good ball skills who can be tough after the catch and fights for yards.
Previous ranking: 12
ESPN 300 commits: 14
Top offensive prospect: ATH Davian Groce
Top defensive prospect: DE JaReylan McCoy
Landing one of the top defenders in the country is the fastest way to climb the recruiting rankings, and that’s exactly what Billy Napier did by securing five-star defensive end JaReylan McCoy. Ranked No. 9 overall and the second-best defender in the ESPN 300, McCoy would be Florida’s highest-rated defensive signee in more than a decade. The 6-foot-7, 260-pound Mississippi native brings elite length, explosive traits and a relentless motor that was on full display at the Under Armour All-America week in January. Beating out LSU and Texas for McCoy marks a major recruiting win for Napier, and McCoy has the potential to develop into one of the SEC’s most feared defensive linemen.
A late close helped the Gators rise in the past cycle, but they’ve ascended much earlier this time around with an active summer. In June they added a pair of dynamic pass catchers in Marquez Daniel and Justin Williams, as well as Georgia running back Carsyn Baker. An early but key pickup was QB Will Griffin, who came on board in June 2024. A big-bodied passer with a strong arm and good accuracy, he could eventually be a nice transition from current QB DJ Lagway. Napier’s staff has also bolstered both lines of scrimmage with several high-upside prospects ranked just outside the ESPN 300, adding critical depth as Florida looks to reassert itself in the SEC.
Previous ranking: 11
ESPN 300 commits: 10
Top offensive prospect: OT Jackson Cantwell
Top defensive prospect: LB Jordan Campbell
Despite a rocky finish to the 2024 season, the Hurricanes are trending in the right direction. They’re coming off a 10-win season, former QB Cam Ward was the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft and they’ve reeled in two consecutive top-15 recruiting classes. Mario Cristobal’s 2026 class is working to match or even exceed those groups.
The Hurricanes are adding pieces to field a dominant offensive line. They could lose several projected 2025 starters after this season but are adding big men who can step in and project a bright future in the trenches. In addition to landing the top-rated interior OL in the 2025 class, they have added several OLs to their 2026 class, led by No. 1 tackle Jackson Cantwell. Much like current standout OT Francis Mauigoa, who was a five-star himself and a Year 1 starter, Cantwell could step in at one of the tackle spots upon arriving in South Florida. He is a massive presence at roughly 6-7 and 320 pounds and carries his size well. In addition to being powerful, he possesses good quickness and flexibility, and much like Mauigoa is being projected to be a high NFL draft pick.
QB Dereon Coleman has room for growth but has a quick release and accuracy. The Hurricanes flipped from Georgia a speedy receiving target out of California in Vance Spafford, who won the fastest-man competition last summer at the UA Future 50 event. Four-star Miami native Jordan Campbell is 6-2, 220 pounds with the versatility to make plays in pursuit and the bend and power that portend a potential impact pass rusher. He’s a candidate to take a leap with college coaching.
Previous ranking: 13
ESPN 300 commits: 12
Top offensive prospect: TE Xavier Tiller
Top defensive prospect: LB Izayia Williams
Mike Norvell cranked up the heat on Florida State’s 2026 recruiting class this summer. Coming off a 2-10 season that led to a staff overhaul, Norvell’s fresh start pitch is resonating with prospects. A key in-state win was landing rangy top-five CB Chauncey Kennon out of Booker High School in Sarasota. LB Izayia Williams has bounced around with multiple commitments, including a previous commitment to the Seminoles, but if they can keep him in the mix, their defense will add a player with excellent speed and range.
The Seminoles landed multiple four-star commitments in June, headlined by tight end Xavier Tiller, who checks in at No. 84 on the ESPN 300. A former Texas A&M commit, the 6-foot-5, 215-pound Tiller boasts an 80-inch wingspan, fluid movement skills and the toughness to win contested catches.
Tiller isn’t the only notable pass catcher entering the mix for Florida State. Wide receiver Devin Carter, the son of former Seminoles running back Dexter Carter, is back in the fold after initially flipping to Auburn. He brings explosive short-area quickness and a strong football background. Four-star Florida native Brandon Bennett adds another dynamic option.
Norvell also landed a quarterback who could one day get them the ball and tie the class together by flipping Jaden O’Neal, who plays at Mustang High in Oklahoma, from the in-state Sooners. The 6-foot-3 pocket passer ranks No. 166 overall with a good frame, smooth delivery and calm demeanor. If Florida State holds on to O’Neal, he would be the program’s highest-rated quarterback signee since 2022.
Previous ranking: 16
ESPN 300 commits: 8
Top offensive prospect: WR Keeyun Chapman
Top defensive prospect: CB Jakob Weatherspoon
Unsurprisingly given his ethos, Bill Belichick is building North Carolina’s 2026 class from the inside out. Zavion Griffin-Haynes was a key in-state keep. The aggressive, lengthy edge defender can bolster the Heels’ defensive front with the tools to be a three-down player. Four-star North Carolina defensive tackle Trashawn Ruffin flipped from Texas A&M, and the 300-pounder has plenty of raw physicality to mold. Ruffin is one of several interior linemen in the class that also includes one-time Oregon commit Viliami Moala, a massive 300-pounder who brings not only jolting power but is light on his feet for his size and can be a handful in the heart of the trenches.
The secondary has undergone some changes during this recruiting cycle, but Marcellous Ryan out of California remains and gives UNC a lean but fluid CB to develop. Jakob Weatherspoon out of Ohio was a big flip from Ohio State and is CB with excellent speed. Crew Davis can be a versatile back with the power to run between the tackles, but he also possesses good ball skills. As a junior, he rushed for more than 1,300 yards and also hauled in more than 50 receptions.
In an effort to boost their passing attack, the Heels have added several potential big-play pieces. Quarterback commit Travis Burgess had a strong showing at the Elite 11 finals and jumped into the ESPN 300 after spring evaluations. He displayed steady development including improved accuracy and also has excellent mobility to create with his legs as well. In July they added a pair of ESPN 300 WRs in Keeyun Chapman and Carnell Warren, both of whom are big targets (roughly 6-foot-4) who can run well. Having worked with some excellent TEs in his past, Belichick was able to snare a flip from Tennessee in Carson Sneed, an ESPN 300 TE who can also be a productive target as well as aid the ground game as a tenacious blocker.
Previous ranking: 14
ESPN 300 commits: 11
Top offensive prospect: QB Faizon Brandon
Top defensive prospect: LB Brayden Rouse
Faizon Brandon, a five-star quarterback, is the headliner here, and rightfully so. He’s a strong, accurate passer who fits Tennessee’s offense perfectly. His commitment was big initially but seems even more impactful after the Vols’ well-publicized split with Nico Iamaleava.
In-state four-star receiver Tyreek King (Knoxville Catholic) and Joel Wyatt (Webb School) pair well alongside Brandon. He is a quick, fluid target who has clocked in-game speeds faster than 21 mph. Keep an eye on in-state offensive tackle Gabriel Osenda, who is a massive presence (6-7, 330 pounds) for the Vols to develop.
Tennessee’s in-state success extends to defense with DE Zach Groves. A defender with good quickness and power, he has amassed more than 50 TFLs heading into his senior season. The Vols also bolstered their D-line by landing Dereon Albert out of Mississippi. The 300-pound defender has been a UA Next camp standout two straight years and displays the tools to be a tough, competitive and consistent presence in the trenches. Brayden Rouse, out of Georgia, could contribute at TE but projects to linebacker, where he brings good range and can play well in space and be effective in coverage.
Previous ranking: 15
ESPN 300 commits: 11
Top offensive prospect: OT Leo Delaney
Top defensive prospect: S Kentavion Anderson
Clemson is coming off a College Football Playoff appearance, but the Tigers are still chasing the heights of their mid-2010s success under Dabo Swinney, and their 2025 class ranked just 37th in the country. Their 2026 group is looking more promising, especially after a red-hot March in which Swinney landed eight verbals, including five ESPN 300 commits.
Much of the talent is currently concentrated on offense. Naeem Burroughs is a burner in the 100-meter dash who can take the top off a defense and has a high football IQ. Fellow receiver Connor Salmin is another big-play threat. With some new offensive weapons, the Tigers are making sure they have the time to get the ball downfield by loading up along the offensive line. Delaney, Carter Scruggs, Grant Wise, Adam Guthrie and Chancellor Barclay give the Tigers multiple ESPN 300 OLs to help reload a senior-heavy unit that is projected to lose multiple starters after 2025.
They could one day protect fellow four-star Tait Reynolds, a dual-threat QB out of Arizona who could push to be part of the long-term solution to replace Cade Klubnik. While the foundation of the class is on offense, Anderson is a key in-state pickup on the other side of the ball. With his frame (roughly 6-foot-2, 190 pounds) and range, he can be a versatile back-end defender for the Tigers.
Previous ranking: 17
ESPN 300 commits: 6
Top offensive prospect: WR Davion Brown
Top defensive prospect: S Matt Sieg
The Nittany Lions jumped out to a fast start fueled by strong in-state recruiting and have kept that momentum going. Several of their top commits are Pennsylvania natives, including four-star Harrisburg High School teammates Kevin Brown and Messiah Mickens. Brown is a big, flexible offensive tackle, while Mickens has been a productive prep running back, which bodes well for a Penn State program that must finally replace Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton after 2025.
James Franklin also landed in-state athlete David Davis Jr., who has clocked a 20.5 mph max speed and has the cover skills to fit into the back end of a defense one day. While most of the early commits are within Penn State’s primary recruiting radius, the Nittany Lions also landed strong-armed quarterback Troy Huhn out of California. He’s a big body with good feet and brings nice upside. They also went out of state to land a potential big-play target in Davion Brown. Out of Virginia, Brown possesses excellent speed, having been recorded at over 21 mph in game play, and can do a good job of high pointing the football to win contested matchups.
Previous ranking: 18
ESPN 300 commits: 6
Top offensive prospect: OT Kodi Greene
Top defensive prospect: DE Derek Colman-Brusa
Jedd Fisch did an excellent job bringing in talent at Arizona and is now working to retool Washington’s roster and get the Huskies back into the playoff hunt. The Huskies won a key recruiting battle by pulling away Greene, an ESPN 300 OL, from rival Oregon. He is a 300-pounder who moves very well for his size with good quickness and the one-time Washington resident can be a key option in the trenches. The Huskies went east to land their QB in Derek Zammit, a tough, smart player with a smooth, quick release. He should continue to improve with the tools to develop into a productive starter.
Washington landed several commitments in the secondary to address that unit. In-state Elijah Durr has good size at roughly 6 feet and is smooth in his movements. He could develop at cornerback or safety. The Huskies also added a pair of four-star DBs in CB Jeron Jones, who has good speed, and Gavin Day out of Las Vegas, an aggressive safety who tallied more than 100 tackles as a junior.
Previous ranking: 19
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: TE Brock Harris
Top defensive prospect: DE Braxton Lindsey
Kalani Sitake’s 2026 class has the potential to be program-defining as BYU builds on the momentum of last year’s 11-win season, which saw the Cougars climb as high as No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Cougars currently hold commitments from two top-100 ESPN 300 standouts — tight end Brock Harris and quarterback Ryder Lyons — marking what could be their most highly rated duo of high school signees in the ESPN 300 era dating to 2006).
Harris, a 6-foot-7, 240-pound in-state product, has transformed from a jumbo wideout into one of the nation’s premier tight ends, adding size while retaining his fluid route-running and wide catch radius. He also brings toughness, having competed at the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game with a cast on his hand. If all goes according to plan, Harris will catch plenty of passes from Lyons, a four-star quarterback who won California’s Gatorade Player of the Year award this fall. Lyons’ commitment represents a full-circle win for BYU. The Cougars offered him as an eighth grader and held off the likes of USC and Oregon to secure his commitment.
Another ESPN 300 prospect, two-way lineman Bott Mulitalo, committed in March and could be tasked with protecting Lyons down the road, adding to what has the makings of a historic haul in Provo.
Previous ranking: 20
ESPN 300 commits: 5
Top offensive prospect: OT Evan Goodwin
Top defensive prospect: LB Kenneth Goodwin
The Mustangs charged into the CFP last season and are showing signs they plan to be consistent contenders. Capitalizing on the rich talent base in Texas, they have added several in-state prospects, including ESPN 300 back Christian Rhodes. An explosive runner who has been recorded hitting better than 21 mph in game play, he rushed for more than 1,200 yards as a junior. To help clear running lanes, the Mustangs have added several offensive linemen, including Evan Goodwin, a massive presence at 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds, and in-state guard Drew Evers, a thickly built and strong blocker who can latch on and control defenders.
High three-star Aljour Miles II is another nice in-state add, as he is a lengthy receiver with good quickness and body control. Another receiving target with big-play potential, Jakai Anderson, was pulled out of Louisiana. Not quite as big a target, he brings a good blend of speed and elusiveness and could also be productive in the return game. On defense, the addition of DE Hudson Woods is a big plus. Woods shows some savvy as a pass rusher, with active hands and good bend. LB Kenneth Goodwin out of California can be a physical player with the ability to rush the passer as well as make plays in coverage.
Previous ranking: 21
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: OT Micah Smith
Top defensive prospect: DE Carter Gooden
The DeShaun Foster era got off to a rocky start, but the Bruins are showing some ascension. In recruiting, the former running back knows the importance of a good O-line and pulled a pair of ESPN 300 OLs out of Florida in Micah Smith and Johnnie Jones. Known as Champ, Smith was an Under Armour All-American as a junior and has shown he can play against top competition and be a well-rounded OT. Tight end Camden Jensen should help propel the run game as well, as he is a good blocker.
The Bruins have added multiple WRs in this class, including in-state four-star Kenneth Moore. Onetime SMU commit Yahya Gaad has a sturdy, muscular build with a good initial burst and is a DE who can set the edge and be tough against the run. They further bolstered their D-line by reaching into Massachusetts and pulling out Tabor Academy teammates DE Carter Gooden and DT Marcus Almada, a three-star with active hands who plays with good leverage and is a nice addition with the four-star Gooden.
Previous ranking: 22
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: ATH Nasir Rankin
Top defensive prospect: DE Kayden Bennett
Good recruiting starts at home, and an early priority for the Fighting Illini was in-state athlete Rankin. A two-sport star who also excels on the hardwood, the ESPN 300 prospect projects to wide receiver, where he can be a playmaker with good hands and the ability to make defenders miss after the catch. Also from in-state, big man Casey Thomann is one of the top OL prospects in Illinois, and three-star Tony Balanganayi is an interesting big man. He projects to the defensive line, where he has shown he can be disruptive, but with more mass could offer higher upside as an OL.
From within the Big Ten footprint, four-star Cam Thomas (Ohio) is a defender with an outstanding first step and could develop into an edge rusher with big upside. Parker Crim brings good arm length, can move well and has shown he can be explosive off the ball. Tony Williams, out of Florida, is a middle linebacker with good instincts and can be a physical presence between the tackles.
Previous ranking: 23
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: WR Calvin Russell
Top defensive prospect: DE Kamron Wilson
The Fran Brown era in Syracuse certainly isn’t boring. He led the Orange to just their second 10-win season since 2001 behind Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, then landed a solid 2025 recruiting class. Now he’s pushing for more talent in 2026. They surprised many by beating several top programs, including Michigan, for ESPN 300 WR Calvin Russell, a lengthy but smooth target who plans to also play basketball with the Orange.
Four-star defensive end Jarius Rodgers, also out of Florida, is among Brown’s biggest gets so far. The 6-5 220-pounder has tremendous length and an impressive track background. He has considerable physical tools and upside if Syracuse’s coaching staff can harness it. Wilson is another big pull out of Florida; the edge defender has good initial quickness and tallied 17 sacks in 2024.
OT Javeion Cooper has real upside too. He has good size (6-5, 300 pounds) yet plays with impressive balance for someone with his power and contact explosiveness. The Orange also have been active in the mid-Atlantic, landing three receivers from Delaware. Among that group is B.J. Garrett, a big target (6-3, 191 pounds) with good hands who could develop into a player in the mold of Oronde Gadsden, who had similar measurables coming out in the 2021 class.
Previous ranking: 24
ESPN 300 commits: 6
Top offensive prospect: WR Sequel Patterson
Top defensive prospect: S J’Zavien Currence
South Carolina nearly made the College Football Playoff, and Shane Beamer keeps brightening the Gamecocks’ future outlook as well. South Carolina added J’Zavien Currence out of the same high school, South Pointe High School, as former Gamecocks star Jadeveon Clowney. Currence is a versatile defender with his blend of size, versatility and speed. He could stay in the secondary, or if he continues to grow, he could move to linebacker. Also on defense, South Carolina has added several four-star defensive ends, including Keenan Britt. Britt lacks ideal height but has good arm length and initial quickness. He plays with leverage and can be a disruptive presence with his blend of speed and power.
On the heels of a deep and talented 2025 cycle receiver haul, the Gamecocks continue to add young talent to that unit, landing in-state ESPN 300 prospect Sequel Patterson. A multi-sport athlete who can play on either side of the ball, he projects to receiver where he can be a productive target as a quick and sharp route runner. ESPN 300 QB Landon Duckworth, a passer with a strong arm, brings high upside with excellent physical tools to develop. Four-star in-state offensive tackle Zyon Guiles is a 6-foot-5, 295-pound mauler with powerful hands and contact explosiveness, which should bode well even if he’s asked to move inside.
Previous ranking: 26
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: OT Felix Ojo
Top defensive prospect: S Donovan Webb
The Red Raiders have been active in the transfer portal, but Joey McGuire & Co. also remain committed to building their roster through high schools. He pulled off a huge in-state win landing five-star offensive tackle Felix Ojo. It’s the second time McGuire has landed an in-state five-star prospect (Micah Hudson, 2024). Ojo is lean and needs some further development but has elite length, bends well and brings a high ceiling for development. In-state guard Jerald Mays is another nice addition to that unit, as he is a thickly built lineman with good feet.
While the hope is Hudson will still break out and meet expectations, Tech is adding to the receiver room in four-star Chase Campbell, a target with good speed and body control who has amassed over 160 receptions with 35 TDs between his sophomore and junior years. In-state safety Donovan Webb can close well and has strong ball skills to finish and generate turnovers. He was position MVP at this spring’s UA Dallas camp.
Previous ranking: 27
ESPN 300 commits: 4
Top offensive prospect: WR Jordan Clay
Top defensive prospect: DE Jamarion Carlton
Baylor picked up a WR with strong ties to the program in London Smith, whose father was a football and basketball star at Baylor and whose mother was a national champion triple jumper for the Bears. Unsurprisingly, London is a quick, smooth target with good body control. Another key add at WR is Jordan Clay, a nice-sized target at close to 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds who also possesses very good body control.
Further capitalizing on in-state talent, Baylor landed ESPN 300 DE Jamarion Carlton and ESPN 300 CB Jamarion Vincent, who possesses coveted size at roughly 6-2 and blends that with good speed and smooth movements.
Previous ranking: NR
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: QB Bowe Bentley
Top defensive prospect: DE Jake Kreul
Oklahoma’s 2026 recruiting class might be middle of the pack so far in the SEC, but it’s anchored by one of the top quarterback prospects in the country. Bowe Bentley, a four-star signal-caller from Celina (Texas) High, gives the Sooners a dynamic player around whom to build. Bentley is a dual-threat passer who pairs impressive production with the kind of arm talent, mobility and leadership — not to mention a bit of improvisation — that can shape a class.
Bentley is one of several four-stars currently in the group. He’s joined by wide receiver Daniel Odom out of St. John Bosco (Calif.). The 6-foot-2, 190-pound target has length, runs polished routes and has deceptive speed off the line. Oklahoma has layered in a slew of signings along the offensive and defensive fronts, including Brian Harris, a 6-3, 280-pounder out of Florida. He’s a disruptive interior run defender with an impressive motor. Another key addition out of Florida — and a big boost to the class overall — was five-star DE Jake Kreul, who brings an explosive first step, good bend and a relentless motor and should be able to work his way into the mix in Year 1.
Previous ranking: 28
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: WR Dyzier Carter
Top defensive prospect: ATH Chris Hewitt Jr.
The Scarlet Knights have added some top talent to their wide receiver room with Dyzier Carter and Elias Coke, who are longtime commits, having joined the class before the 2024 season started. Carter is a good route runner with strong hands and could be a quick contributor. Coke is a nice target at roughly 6-foot-2.
On defense, Joey Kopec is a two-way player in high school, contributing at RB and LB. He has good range and is effective dropping into coverage. Part of a big June haul, Rinaldo Callaway, out of Georgia, is an interesting addition to keep an eye on. A rangy edge defender, he is raw and needs development but shows a nice ceiling for development and could grow into a disruptive pass rusher. Athlete Chris Hewitt projects to the secondary.
Always active in Florida, the Scarlet Knights landed Reece Beck, a DE with good physical tools, frame, reach and active hands. He can be tough against the run and productive as a pass rusher. They will not need to wait for edge defender Wydeek Collier, a big riser in the 2026 rankings after the spring evaluation period, who reclassified and joined Rutgers’ 2025 class.
Previous ranking: 29
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Briggs Cherry
Top offensive prospect: S Jaydin Broadnax
Jeff Brohm has raised Louisville’s floor with a 19-8 record and an appearance in the ACC championship game two years ago. His 2026 class has the players to keep the program moving in the right direction. ESPN 300 defensive back Jaydin Broadnax, out of Florida, is the biggest get so far. At nearly 6-foot-3, he has great length, balance and body control for a corner. LB Karsten Busch is a nice addition from within the state who will help on defense. He possesses good size and the ability to be a physical, downhill presence against the run. Sam Dawson is another in-state defensive add. He is a DT with active, heavy hands and good power who can help stuff the run.
QB Briggs Cherry has performed well during in-person evaluations, including winning positional MVP during the UA New Orleans camp in March. The strong-armed passer has risen in the rankings, proving to be a key January pickup.
Previous ranking: 30
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: ATH Ryelan Morris
Top defensive prospect: S Lasiah Jackson
The Cardinal are working to bounce back from a 3-9 campaign and their 2026 class is showing the tools to make future improvements. A key pickup was ESPN 300 athlete Ryelan Morris, a flip from Baylor. At 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, he is versatile in how he could be utilized within their offense. He is quick with good hands and best projects as a slot receiver, where he can be dangerous after the catch. They beat out programs like Alabama and Florida State for ESPN 300 DB Lasiah Jackson out of Georgia, a defender with good length and range.
Having had a reputation for fielding excellent OLs not long ago, they are looking to rebuild that unit into a strength with several big men committed. Jalayne Miller, out of Arizona, possesses good feet and flexibility, and Blaise Thomassie could be a sleeper add. He performed very well at a loaded UA New Orleans camp between his junior and senior years. He possesses good body quickness, is very good with his hands and could develop at OG or center.
Previous ranking: 31
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: WR Kortez Rupert
Top defensive prospect: DT Cameron McHaney
Curt Cignetti proved in his first year at Indiana that his program-building skills translate to the Power 4. Now he’s establishing a foundation for sustained success by assembling one of the program’s most promising defensive recruiting classes in recent memory. The Hoosiers have put particular emphasis on the defensive line. Four-star tackle Cameron McHaney, a thickly built interior lineman from IMG Academy, shows initial quickness off the snap and plays with violence and disruption. He projects as a pocket-pusher who can anchor or attack in multiple fronts. Joining him are a pair of four-star defensive ends: Gabe Hill and Kevontay Hugan. Hill, at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds, pairs an explosive first step with strong hands and a relentless motor. Hugan, another high-upside edge rusher, rounds out a talented group of trench commits.
On offense, a top commit is wide receiver Kortez Rupert, a 5-foot-11, 155-pound speedster from East Saint Louis High, the same program that produced Luther Burden. Rupert isn’t the same caliber of prospect, but he shows impressive burst off the line and could grow into a dangerous slot threat.
Previous ranking: 32
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Kayd Coffman
Top defensive prospect: DE Fameitau Siale
Under Jonathan Smith, Michigan State is looking to recapture its status among the Big Ten’s upper-tier programs, which has become harder over the past few years. Having an in-state, homegrown signal-caller to shepherd in a new era would certainly inject more enthusiasm into the program. Enter Kayd Coffman, a 6-foot-2, 195-pounder out of East Kentwood High School in Michigan and an ESPN 300 prospect. Coffman has a quick, snappy release with the footwork and mobility to develop into a dynamic passer on the run. Michigan State will have to work to hold on to him — Colorado and Ohio State were among the programs who checked in on Coffman in the spring — but getting him to campus would be a major win.
Michigan State’s other ESPN 300 commit, Tyren Wortham, could be a target for Coffman. At 6 feet, 180 pounds, he’s a lean and fluid receiver who can surge off the ball with sudden quickness. Wortham can sustain that burst too — he ran a 21.91-second 200-meter dash in late March — and competes in games and practices alike with an impressive no-nonsense attitude. He’s one of several pass-catchers already pledged in Michigan State’s class, joining three-stars Samson Gash and Zachary Washington.
Previous ranking: 33
ESPN 300 commits: 0
Top offensive prospect: OT Bryce Gilmore
Top defensive prospect: LB J.J. Bush
Hot seat talk surrounding head coach Sam Pittman seemed to cool entering the offseason, which will benefit recruiting and help aid a 2026 class that has a solid foundation to build on. Four-star Dequane Prevo out of Texas is a 5-foot-10 receiver that has outstanding balance, body control and short-area burst. Several high-three-star prospects anchor the class, including quarterback Jayvon Gilmore, a tall (6-foot-4) but lean passer with a nice frame to develop. He has a strong arm with a smooth release and was a nice early evaluation and pickup by the Razorbacks.
Colton Yarbrough brings upside at defensive end with good first-step quickness and range. An offensive line coach himself, Pittman has landed in-state big man Tucker Young, who can get push and help create lanes in the run game, and four-star OL Bryce Gilmore, who has good flexibility and range.
Previous ranking: 34
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OG Marek Jin
Top defensive prospect: DE Mason Leak
Bill O’Brien has injected new life into Boston College, in part by returning the program to its local roots. That has continued so far in 2026, with nearly half of its commits hailing from Massachusetts, Connecticut or New York. One of those prospects is Mason Leak, who is an interesting addition that will likely need developmental time but flashes very good raw tools and could be a breakout player. The Eagles added two promising QBs this cycle as well in Femi Babalola and D.J. Bordeaux. The former has a rangy frame, tested well in offseason camp and possesses a strong, accurate arm. The latter has a smooth release and moves well.
At the program’s height, BC built a reputation for developing NFL-caliber talent, particularly along the offensive line and on defense, and the Eagles are working hard to get back to that level. An early commit from in-state is OT Brady Bekkenhuis, who is a tenacious blocker with upside. Four-star Marek Jin is a flexible OL prospect who plays with good leverage, and with continued development and focus, Jin could be a key contributor in the trenches.
Previous ranking: 35
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OT Andrew Trout
Top defensive prospect: CB Justin Hopkins
The Gophers are not a class that will be heavy with ESPN 300 commits, but they’re assembling a strong class anchored by a plethora of high three-star prospects. CBs Justin Hopkins and Chance Payne are good examples, as is edge defender Aaden Aytch. A prospect with a lean build, Aytch needs to continue to develop, but he brings a high ceiling as he has good length, displays wiry strength, can redirect well and be a factor in pursuit.
Beefing up the offensive line, they have several commits, led by Andrew Trout, the No. 1 player in the state and an ESPN 300 OT. Another key in-state keep was Roman Voss, who was also pursued by Alabama. Listed as an athlete, he has experience as a QB, but projects to TE and can be a versatile weapon for the Minnesota offense.
Previous ranking: 25
ESPN 300 commits: 4
Top offensive prospect: RB Damarius Yates
Top defensive prospect: DE Landon Barnes
The Rebels have relied heavily on the transfer portal, but by no means have turned their back on bringing in young talent. They signed a top-20 class for 2025 as well one of the top 10 newcomer classes for the last cycle. Damarius Yates was a key in-state keep, as he rushed for more than 1,300 yards as a junior for Kemper County and caught 31 passes. He possesses explosive lateral movement with the acceleration to separate from defenders. Corey Barber is a receiver with good speed and can be a vertical threat as well as create plays on jet sweeps.
On defense, DEs Landon Barnes and Carmelow Reed both need further development but bring good tools. Barnes is out of one of the top programs in Texas (Duncanville) and uses his hands well and can set the edge. Reed has a big frame and possesses good first-step quickness.
Previous ranking: 36
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: ATH Damon Ferguson
Top defensive prospect: OLB Reston Lehman
Pat Narduzzi and Pittsburgh haven’t secured multiple ESPN 300 commits in one class since 2021. If things hold, that’s set to change in 2026. The Panthers landed commitments from a pair of four-stars: outside linebacker Reston Lehman, out of Pennsylvania, and athlete Damon Ferguson. Lehman has solid size at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds and has the versatility to get after quarterbacks off the edge but also drop into coverage. He’s comfortable tracking the quarterback as a pass rusher and has already begun to show the makings of multiple pass-rush moves. He’s one of several intriguing linebacker additions, alongside three-star outside linebacker Isaiah Simmons and three-star inside linebacker Desmond Johnson out of Miami.
Pitt hasn’t produced a 1,000-yard rusher since Israel Abanikanda in 2022. Ferguson certainly has the raw tools to change that. The Maryland native is a quick runner who can change direction without skipping a beat and runs low to the ground. His suddenness and speed make him an attractive option in the pass game too and could even translate to work in the defensive secondary if needed.
Previous ranking: 37
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OT Kaden Snyder
Top defensive prospect: S J.J. Dunnigan
Lance Leipold is no stranger to building a program and is working to fortify Kansas’ 2026 class. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, in-state defensive back J.J. Dunnigan has the length to reroute receivers off the line and the straight-line speed to hang with them on vertical routes. The Jayhawks have a few offensive linemen committed, led by 6-foot-5 Kansas native Kaden Snyder, who has an enticing combination of athleticism, pass-protection skills and upside if he can continue to fill out his frame.
The Jalon Daniels era enters its sixth and final season in 2025. In-state three-star commit Jaylen Mason is an intriguing developmental option at QB.
Previous ranking: 38
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: RB Victor Santino
Top defensive prospect: DE Camron Brooks
In Justin Wilcox’s eight seasons, Cal has been steady, albeit unspectacular, never losing more than eight games but never winning more than eight. If the Golden Bears’ 2026 class is any indication, their coaching staff certainly isn’t leaving any stone unturned in their pursuit to raise the ceiling of the program. Their lone ESPN 300 recruit, defensive end Camron Brooks, hails from Georgia and picked Cal after taking visits to Clemson, Florida State and Ohio State. At 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, Brooks has excellent length and initial burst. He’s one of two players from Thomas County Central High School who have committed to Cal in the class, joining interior lineman Artem Korchagin.
Cal also dipped into Hawai’i to land four prospects: tight end Taimane Purcell, offensive guard Kamo’i Huihui-White, quarterback Nainoa Lopes and offensive tackle Esaiah Wong. The Bears even tapped into the NFL Academy’s European program, landing tight end Luca Wolf out of London, who stands an impressive 6-foot-6, 240 pounds. The class could gel around in-state quarterback Brady Palmer, a three-star pocket passer out of San Diego. He’s a poised, accurate passer who has enough athleticism to extend plays and has been a frequent competitor on the camp circuit.
Previous ranking: 39
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Oscar Rios
Top defensive prospect: DE Prince Williams
Arizona’s program has oscillated between incredible highs, winning 10 games two seasons ago and sending Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL, and painful lows, with a four-win campaign in Brent Brennan’s first season. One of the few constants amid plenty of program upheaval has been quarterback Noah Fifita, who is sixth in program history in passing yards (5,955) and seventh in touchdowns (44). Arizona’s 2026 class could have Fifita’s successor.
The Wildcats landed a commitment from four-star California native Oscar Rios in late June. An ESPN 300 QB, Rios has developed from a tall, lanky underclassman into a strong-armed, confident passer capable of driving the ball vertically while winning over teammates and coaches with his competitive demeanor. Landing Rios was a big win, and Arizona continued the momentum in early July, landing a commitment from fellow four-star Prince Williams. The Bishop Gorman defensive end stands 6-foot-2, 255 pounds and doesn’t back down from larger offensive tackles, nor does he cede reps in camp settings. He has the type of competitive nature and versatility a defensive line room can rally around. That duo forms an impressive foundation for Arizona to continue building out its 2026 class.
With conference play set to open across the country in Week 3, we’re about to get a much firmer grasp on the 2025 college football landscape. Among other things, this weekend will deliver fresh windows into first-year quarterbacks at Georgia and Tennessee when the Bulldogs travel to Neyland Stadium. Elsewhere in the SEC, Florida visits No. 3 LSU with the pair of SEC rivals respectively shouldering very different but equally hefty stakes. Meanwhile, some of college football’s most surprising early-season storylines will continue to play out Saturday with No. 18 South Florida leading the charge as the surging Bulls venture south to No. 5 Miami.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups in this weekend’s pair of high-profile SEC clashes, the programs that have surprised us so far and the top quotes of the past seven days entering Week 3. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Tennessee | Florida-LSU
Teams that have surprised us | Quotes of the Week
What will Georgia and Tennessee need from their new starting QBs?
Georgia: Quarterback Gunner Stockton gets his first SEC road test at Tennessee on Saturday, and the Bulldogs will be looking for him to deliver more in the downfield passing game. Stockton played OK in Georgia’s first two wins over Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay, completing 69% of his pass attempts for 417 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for two scores against the Thundering Herd. His legs weren’t much of a factor in last week’s closer-than-expected win against the Governors. Stockton has taken care of the football and hasn’t put the defense in bad situations, but Georgia needs more explosive plays on offense. He has attempted only 10 passes beyond 10 yards. Georgia went into the transfer portal to get USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, and Colbie Young is back after sitting out most of the 2024 season because of a suspension. Those playmakers have to be more involved on offense, along with tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. If Georgia is going to beat Tennessee for the ninth straight time, Stockton has to be more comfortable letting the ball fly, especially against a secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL) and Rickey Gibson III (arm) because of injuries.
Tennessee: The Volunteers couldn’t have asked for much more from transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar in their first two victories against Syracuse and FCS program East Tennessee State. The former App State starter completed 66.1% of his attempts for 535 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw a 73-yard touchdown to Braylon Staley against the Orange and a 53-yarder to Mike Matthews against the Buccaneers. He might have to do even more against Georgia’s defense, which brings back promising safety KJ Bolden and cornerback Daylen Everette, a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Bulldogs are going to try to stifle Tennessee’s running game and get after Aguilar in the pocket. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have had UT coach Josh Heupel’s number in recent seasons. The Bulldogs haven’t given up explosive plays, a trademark of Heupel’s system. In each of the past three losses to Georgia, the Volunteers’ high-flying offense failed to throw for 200 yards and didn’t have a passing touchdown. — Mark Schlabach
What do Florida and LSU need to capitalize on to win?
Florida: Aside from avoiding penalties, including spitting on a player? The Gators have to play with the emotion and intensity that comes with knowing their season is hanging in the balance after a shocking 18-16 loss to USF. They can do that by setting the tone on defense, which played well for stretches against the Bulls but then gave up 87 yards on eight plays on the final drive. LSU has struggled to run the ball through two games, and frustrations boiled over after a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, in which the Tigers averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In their win over LSU last year, Florida held the Tigers to 2.9 yards per carry. The good news for Florida is it won’t be facing a dual-threat quarterback like Byrum Brown. So if the Gators can limit the LSU backs, they will give themselves a shot. — Andrea Adelson
LSU: The Gators might be more desperate, but the Tigers should be plenty motivated after what happened in Gainesville last fall. LSU’s defense looks like the better of the two units and must cause more distress for DJ Lagway, who averaged 17.4 yards per completion in the 2024 win. The Tigers hurried Lagway nine times but never sacked him. They also let down in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns allowed. LSU’s upgrades on defense and playing at home, where coach Brian Kelly implored that the crowd needs to “live up to our résumé as the toughest place to play in the country,” must become outcome-swinging factors. Garrett Nussmeier is still the superior quarterback, and if LSU can get Caden Durham going — he had 95 rushing yards against Florida last season — the Tigers should prevail. — Adam Rittenberg
Five teams that have surprised us so far
South Florida: It would have been very easy to look at South Florida’s first two games of the season and have both of them — against Boise State and Florida — earmarked as likely losses. Instead, the Bulls went out and started 2-0, making a surprising early case as the best Group of 5 team. The win against Boise State was particularly impressive because of how lopsided it was (34-7). Boise State looked nothing like the team that reached the playoff last season (losing running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, played a significant role in that).
UCLA: After the Bruins finished the 2024 season winning four of their final six games, they brought in transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the offseason. It was reasonable to be optimistic about the direction of the football program. Two games later, UCLA looks like an underdog in all nine of the Big Ten games on its schedule. The Bruins weren’t remotely competitive in their 43-10 loss to Utah, then fell behind 23-0 to UNLV before making it look more respectable in a 30-23 loss last week. Now, UCLA will have to brace for another season of playing in a more than half-empty Rose Bowl.
Kansas State: The only thing between the Wildcats and an 0-3 start, is a last-minute touchdown against FCS North Dakota. Their three-point losses to Iowa State and Army aren’t the end of the world, but this team was expected to compete for the Big 12 title (and still could, to be fair) and hasn’t yet looked the part. Against Army, quarterback Avery Johnson was limited to 172 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. That’s not a formula with which K-State can win.
Florida State: The roller coaster in Tallahassee has been a wild ride. In no other era of college football does it seem plausible for a team to win 19 games in a row, then lose 11 of 13 and then immediately jump back into the top 10. And yet this is the life the Seminoles have lived over the past few seasons. FSU was expected to be better this season, but its convincing win against Alabama in Week 1 might have been the most surprising result of the young season.
Mississippi State: After finishing 2-10 last season with a winless SEC campaign, the Bulldogs didn’t have much momentum. But after an upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State, perhaps this is a team that could be bowling at the end of the season. With games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois the next two weeks, a 4-0 start seems likely before the gauntlet of conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“According to who? Arch said that to you?” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian responded to a question this week as speculation swirled over the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom, so I don’t know what faces you make when you’re doing that.”
“Who has one of those? What does that look like? What does a solidified quarterback look like? What does that look like? I want to know. We play quarterbacks every week. What does a solidified quarterback look like?” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said when asked if he had concerns around the absence of a “solidified quarterback” with third-string quarterback Ryan Staub expected to start ahead of veteran Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis in Week 3. “That could mean something’s up with your roster if it’s clear,” Sanders continued. “Then [when] that clear guy goes down, what’s up with the second one? I like where we are, man. I like what we have. I like what we’re playing with. I like these dice I’m shaking.”
“Just wanted to see if we could,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of the Tigers’ illegal free kick against Kansas in Week 2 that prompted the Big 12 to suspend the responsible officiating crew on Tuesday. “You know, it’s like asking your parents if you can do something that you know they probably shouldn’t let you do. But sometimes they get it wrong.”
“I love Darian to death,” Tulane coach Jon Sumrall said of Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah ahead of the Blue Devils’ Week 3 visit to Tulane. “I’ve said this publicly: if you play one snap, 100 snaps, 1,000 snaps for me, I’ll love you for the rest of my life. I care about him, wish him well, saw him this summer — I’ve got nothing but love for Darian.”
“I’ve talked to many that believe across the country this is the progress we need to make,” LSU’s Brian Kelly said of Ohio State Buckeyes coach Ryan Day’s response to proposed transfer portal changes. “I want to get my roster set. Now, I know there’s probably 12 or 16 teams that might be in the playoffs at that time. I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht. I mean, we got to get this thing set and its best position at this time to allow us to set our rosters moving forward.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.
I’ve circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week’s card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football’s version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we’re still figuring out who’s the real deal and who’s just catfishing us.
No spoilers yet, but let’s just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I’m betting the market hasn’t caught up.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5
The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we’ve seen on the field. It’s early. I know. However, I have doubts.
Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That’s like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.
The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don’t need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that’s Georgia Tech.
Through two games, GT’s rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with four different players already ripping off runs of 27 yards or longer, including quarterback Haynes King.
That rushing strength will be tested, and King’s injury status is something to keep an eye on, but he is expected to play. He’s a quarterback who forces you to defend every blade of grass.
I look back to late last season and think of this as it déjà vu for Clemson’s defense. They saw this exact movie last season with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (166 rushing yards). King has a very similar skill set, except GT’s overall offense is more explosive.
Grab the points. The Yellow Jackets have the sting to pull off the upset.
Bet to make: Oregon -27.5 and Northwestern UNDER 10.5
Oregon is beating up on opponents they’re supposed to, winning by a combined score of 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. The offense has been balanced and explosive, led by Dante Moore‘s efficiency and a backfield that’s averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Now they face a Northwestern defense ranked 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, the same group Tulane gashed for 269 rushing yards in Week 1. This sets up as a trench mismatch, and Oregon has the speed and depth to exploit it.
Northwestern’s secondary is solid, but that was against Western Illinois, and even still, Oregon’s run game is the hammer and Northwestern’s front is the nail. The Ducks also are second in yards gained, meaning they are finishing drives at an elite rate. This is one of those matchups where Oregon can control the script, lean on their ground game and force Northwestern to play catch-up with an offense that lacks any weapons to contend.
Betting against this Oregon offense right now (against soft opponents) feels risky. Now, both of the Ducks games were at home, but I see this unit translating on the road, too, in the right context. I’m not at all ready to call them championship ready, but beating up on the little guys? Yes.
Also worth considering: Northwestern team total UNDER 9.5 points (+105)
Oregon’s defense has allowed only two red zone trips. The Wildcats are averaging only 4.5 yards per pass with five turnovers in two games. Oregon’s defense isn’t flashy, but it forces long drives and eliminates explosive plays, allowing just three gains of 20+ yards so far.
Northwestern will need to string together 10-play drives against a top defense that collapses early downs and limits red-zone access. The Ducks might clip the Wildcats’ whiskers and leave Evanston with a shutout.
Bet to make: New Mexico +15.5
We need to stop pretending UCLA has shown us anything that warrants laying more than two touchdowns.
UCLA’s defense has been a problem, giving up a third-down conversion rate of 70%, fourth worst in the country. That means opponents stay on the field, bleed clock and keep games close.
New Mexico is 130th in rushing yards, but that raw number doesn’t tell the whole story when you look at context. Week 1 was at Michigan, one of the best defensive fronts in the country and Scottre Humphrey had just 10 carries for 33 yards which tanked their early rushing stats.
But in Week 2 against Idaho State, we finally saw the real picture: 18 carries, 141 yards, 7.8 YPC and a 61-yard burst, which is not atypical for Humphrey. In fact, he had nine 100-yard rushing games last year.
So is it enough to buy into New Mexico’s ground game here? Against UCLA, yes. UCLA’s run defense is dead last in success rate allowed and just got gashed for 286 rushing yards by Utah and 148 more by UNLV.
This matchup actually tilts toward Humphrey being a real factor again.
The key is game script. If UCLA jumps ahead by multiple scores early, Humphrey gets neutralized, forcing Jack Layne into obvious passing downs, which is not their strength. But if New Mexico can stay within one score into the second half, Humphrey is the player who keeps them competitive.
This isn’t a volume stat issue, it’s a matchup issue, and against UCLA the door is open. Continue fading the Bruins.
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Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
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