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It’s been a confusing week.

The Monday gathering of European leaders and Ukraine’s president with Donald Trump at the White House was highly significant.

Ukraine latest: Trump changes tack

The leaders went home buoyed by the knowledge that they’d finally convinced the American president not to abandon Europe. He had committed to provide American “security guarantees” to Ukraine.

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European leaders sit down with Trump for talks

The details were sketchy, and sketched out only a little more through the week (we got some noise about American air cover), but regardless, the presidential commitment represented a clear shift from months of isolationist rhetoric on Ukraine – “it’s Europe’s problem” and all the rest of it.

Yet it was always the case that, beyond that clear achievement for the Europeans, Russia would have a problem with it.

Trump’s envoy’s language last weekend – claiming that Putin had agreed to Europe providing “Article 5-like” guarantees for Ukraine, essentially providing it with a NATO-like collective security blanket – was baffling.

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Trump: No US troops on ground in Ukraine

Russia gives two fingers to the president

And throughout this week, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly and predictably undermined the whole thing, pointing out that Russia would never accept any peace plan that involved any European or NATO troops in Ukraine.

“The presence of foreign troops in Ukraine is completely unacceptable for Russia,” he said yesterday, echoing similar statements stretching back years.

Remember that NATO’s “eastern encroachment” was the justification for Russia’s “special military operation” – the invasion of Ukraine – in the first place. All this makes Trump look rather weak.

It’s two fingers to the president, though interestingly, the Russian language has been carefully calibrated not to poke Trump but to mock European leaders instead. That’s telling.

Read more on Ukraine:
Trump risks ‘very big mistake’
NATO-like promise for Ukraine may be too good to be true
Europe tried to starve Putin’s war machine – it didn’t go as planned

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Europe ‘undermining’ Ukraine talks

The bilateral meeting (between Putin and Zelenskyy) hailed by Trump on Monday as agreed and close – “within two weeks” – looks decidedly doubtful.

Maybe that’s why he went along with Putin’s suggestion that there be a bilateral, not including Trump, first.

It’s easier for the American president to blame someone else if it’s not his meeting, and it doesn’t happen.

NATO defence chiefs met on Wednesday to discuss the details of how the security guarantees – the ones Russia won’t accept – will work.

European sources at the meeting have told me it was all a great success. And to the comments by Lavrov, a source said: “It’s not up to Lavrov to decide on security guarantees. Not up to the one doing the threatening to decide how to deter that threat!”

The argument goes that it’s not realistic for Russia to say from which countries Ukraine can and cannot host troops.

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Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0

Would Trump threaten force?

The problem is that if Europe and the White House want Russia to sign up to some sort of peace deal, then it would require agreement from all sides on the security arrangements.

The other way to get Russia to heel would be with an overwhelming threat of force. Something from Trump, like: “Vladimir – look what I did to Iran…”. But, of course, Iran isn’t a nuclear power.

Something else bothers me about all this. The core concept of a “security guarantee” is an ironclad obligation to defend Ukraine into the future.

Future guarantees would require treaties, not just a loose promise. I don’t see Trump’s America truly signing up to anything that obliges them to do anything.

A layered security guarantee which builds over time is an option, but from a Kremlin perspective, would probably only end up being a repeat of history and allow them another “justification” to push back.

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Image and reality don’t seem to match

Among Trump’s stream of social media posts this week was an image of him waving his finger at Putin in Alaska. It was one of the few non-effusive images from the summit.

He posted it next to an image of former president Richard Nixon confronting Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev – an image that came to reflect American dominance over the Soviet Union.

Pic: Truth Social
Image:
Pic: Truth Social

That may be the image Trump wants to portray. But the events of the past week suggest image and reality just don’t match.

The past 24 hours in Ukraine have been among the most violent to date.

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Explosives and weapons seized – with 71 arrests – as Syria launches clampdown on Islamic State cells

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Explosives and weapons seized - with 71 arrests - as Syria launches clampdown on Islamic State cells

Syria has carried out pre-emptive operations targeting Islamic State cells – arresting 71 people during 61 raids.

Explosives and weapons were seized, with the interior ministry revealing they were working on “precise” intelligence information.

“Many” of those detained were wanted criminals, with forces obtaining evidence that linked them to terrorist activities.

A statement added that the operation was part of “ongoing national efforts to combat terrorism and confront plots targeting the country’s security and citizens”.

The raids come as Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa travels to Washington for a meeting with Donald Trump, where he will join a coalition against IS.

Meanwhile, the US is preparing to establish a military presence in Damascus to enable a security pact that is being brokered between Syria and Israel.

According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, officials intercepted information that suggested Islamic State was planning to launch new attacks.

More on Islamic State

Interior ministry spokesman Nour al Din al Baba told al Ekhbariya: “The current major threat lies in IS’ attempts to reconstitute itself and recruit new members, particularly among the youth.”

Former president Bashar al Assad was ousted late last year after 25 years in power and fled to Russia after his regime came to an end.

Since then, al Sharaa’s transitional administration has been attempting to restore security, introduce economic reforms, and cooperate with international partners.

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On Friday, the UK and US removed sanctions against al Sharaa – following in the footsteps of the UN Security Council.

The State Department said this was “in recognition of the progress demonstrated by the Syrian leadership”, including work to counter narcotics and eliminate chemical weapons.

Al Sharaa had faced a travel ban, asset freeze and an arms embargo for well over a decade because he was previously affiliated with al Qaeda.

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Israel receives hostage’s remains – as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

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Israel receives hostage's remains - as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

Israeli troops in Gaza have received the remains of another hostage.

They have now been taken to the National Institute for Forensic Medicine to be examined.

If it is confirmed that they belong to a hostage, this would mean there are five bodies left to be returned under the terms of a ceasefire that began on 10 October.

Israel has also released the bodies of 285 Palestinians – but this identification process is harder because DNA labs are not allowed in Gaza.

Last night’s transfer is a sign of progress in the fragile truce, but some of the remains handed over in recent weeks have not belonged to any of the missing hostages.

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October: Heavy machinery enters Gaza to clear rubble

At times, Israel has accused Hamas of violating the agreement – however, US President Donald Trump has previously acknowledged conditions on the ground in Gaza are difficult.

Meanwhile, UN officials have warned the levels of humanitarian aid flowing into the territory fall well short of what Palestinians require.

Deputy spokesperson Farhan Haqq said more than 200,000 metric tons of aid is positioned to move in – but only 37,000 tons has arrived so far.

Earlier on Friday, hundreds of mourners attended the military funeral of an Israeli-American soldier whose body was returned on Sunday.

Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP
Image:
Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP

Captain Omer Neutra was 21 when he was killed by Hamas militants who then took his body into Gaza following the October 7th attacks.

Admiral Brad Cooper, who heads up US Central Command, said during the service: “He is the son of two nations.

“He embodied the best of both the United States and Israel. Uniquely, he has firmly cemented his place in history as the hero of two countries.”

His mother Orna addressed her son’s coffin – and said: “We are all left with the vast space between who you were to us and to the world in your life and what you were yet to become. And with the mission to fill that gap with the light and goodness that you are.”

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IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP
Image:
IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP

In other developments, Turkish prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 36 other Israeli officials on charges of carrying out “genocide” in Gaza.

They have been accused of crimes against humanity – but the move is highly symbolic since these officials were unlikely to enter Turkey.

Foreign minister Gideon Saar dismissed the warrants, and said: “Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant Erdogan.”

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Putin’s right-hand man made him look weak – it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin’s top table

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Putin's right-hand man made him look weak - it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin's top table

In Soviet times, Western observers would scrutinise video footage of state occasions, like military parades on Red Square, to try to learn more about Kremlin hierarchy.

Who was positioned closest to the leader? What did the body language say? Which officials were in and out of favour?

In some ways, not much has changed.

The footage present-day Kremlinologists are currently pouring over is from Wednesday’s landmark meeting of Russia’s Security Council, in which Vladimir Putin told his top officials to start drafting proposals for a possible nuclear weapons test.

It was an important moment. Not one you’d expect a trusted lieutenant to miss. But Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, was conspicuously absent – the only permanent member of the Council not present.

According to the Russian business daily, Kommersant, his absence was “coordinated”.

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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP
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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP

Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP
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Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP

That episode alone would have been enough to raise eyebrows.

But coupled with the selection of a more junior official to lead the Russian delegation at the upcoming G20 summit (a role Lavrov has filled in recent years) – well, that’s when questions get asked, namely: Has Moscow’s top diplomat been sidelined?

The question has grown loud enough to force the Kremlin into a denial, but it’s done little to quell speculation that Lavrov has fallen out of favour.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters
Image:
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters

Rumours of a rift have been mounting since Donald Trump called off a planned summit with Putin in Budapest last month, following a phone call between Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio.

According to the Financial Times, it was Lavrov’s uncompromising stance that prompted the White House to put the summit on ice.

Conversations I had with diplomatic sources here at the time revealed a belief that Lavrov had either dropped the ball or gone off-script. Whether it was by accident or by design, his diplomacy (or lack of it) torpedoed the summit and seemingly set back a US-Russia rapprochement.

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September: Anyone downing aircraft in Russian airspace will ‘regret it’

That would’ve angered Putin, who is keen to engage with Washington, not only on Ukraine but on other issues, like nuclear arms control.

More importantly, perhaps, it made the Russian president appear weak – unable to control his foreign minister. And Putin is not a man who likes to be undermined.

Football fans will be familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson’s golden rule of management: Never let a player grow bigger than the club. Putin operates in a similar fashion. Loyalty is valued extremely highly.

Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters

North Korea's Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP
Image:
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP

Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters

If Lavrov has indeed been sidelined, it would be a very significant moment indeed. The 75-year-old has been the face of Russian diplomacy for more than two decades and effectively Putin’s right-hand man for most of the Kremlin leader’s rule.

Known for his abrasive style and acerbic putdowns, Lavrov has also been a vociferous cheerleader for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, he arrived wearing a jumper emblazoned with the initials “CCCP”, the Russian letters for USSR. The apparent message: Ukraine still belongs to Moscow.

And in the melee that immediately followed the presidents’ press statements at the summit, I remember racing over to Lavrov as he was leaving and yelling a question to him through the line of security guards.

He didn’t even turn. Instead, he just shouted back: “Who are you?”

It was typical of a diplomatic heavyweight, who’s known for not pulling his punches. But has that uncompromising approach finally taken its toll?

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