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One of the glaring differences between the first and last top-25 rankings of the season will be the inclusion of a Group of 5 conference champion in the top 12.

We won’t see the committee’s top 25 until Nov. 4, but sneaking into the preseason AP Top 25 is Boise State at No. 25 — the only Group of 5 team represented. The Broncos have the highest chance to reach the playoff (25%) of any G5 team, according to ESPN Analytics.

When the preseason poll was released, Boise State coach Spencer Danielson met with his players and reminded them that in 2024 they weren’t ranked at all — but went on to win the Mountain West Conference and earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.

“I told our guys, ‘The country doesn’t think you can be anything because Ashton Jeanty’s not here,'” Danielson said. “Let’s just call it what it is. There’s an edge you have to have in life, and I always think that brings out the best in you. That edge comes from having something to prove.”

Boise State is hardly the only team starting the season on the bubble. Any team that has a chance to win its league is also a playoff contender because the five highest-ranked conference winners are guaranteed spots in the 12-team field. And seven at-large spots are up for grabs.

Below is a look at teams on the preseason bubble, but we’ll start with playoff lessons from last season.

Jump to a topic:
Lessons from first 12-team CFP
Bubble teams with early tests
G5 contenders with no margin for error

What we learned last season

1. If you have a weak schedule, win big. Indiana was at the heart of a CFP debate that spilled into the offseason and was a catalyst for changes to the metrics the committee uses to evaluate schedule strength. Committee members will tell you they don’t incentivize margin of victory, but sheer dominance is hard to ignore. The Hoosiers were No. 1 in the country in points margin per game (25.7) and No. 2 with 41.3 points scored per game. On Selection Day, the Hoosiers were ranked No. 8 with the No. 68 schedule in the country and no wins against ranked opponents. This could be a factor for a team such as BYU (No. 62 SOS) or Bill Belichick’s North Carolina (No. 70).

2. If you’re not playing on conference championship game weekend, don’t expect much movement. In the past, wins against eventual conference champions impacted the committee’s final ranking, but that didn’t happen in 2024. No. 14 South Carolina beat Clemson during the regular season — a win that ultimately was against the ACC champion. Instead of being rewarded for that while idle, though, South Carolina dropped one spot in the final ranking to finish No. 15. (Remember, committee members rotate off the group every three years, so different people bring different philosophies to the table.) This offseason, the committee reaffirmed that movement in the final week should be evidence-based and did not recommend creating a formal policy prohibiting such shifting.

3. Even the worst losses can be overcome — if they happen early and are followed by a remarkable run. Notre Dame’s Week 2 loss to unranked Northern Illinois haunted the Irish in the committee meeting room all season. And yet they still played for the national title. It’s another reminder not to write off teams in September — no matter how dire their situation might seem. The pressure will be on, though, to run the table or finish with a résumé strong enough to make committee members forgive the early face-plant.

4. The No. 11 and No. 12 ranking spots are dangerous. Even in a 12-team playoff, it’s best to finish in the selection committee’s top 10 to avoid getting knocked out by the fourth or fifth conference champion. At No. 11, Alabama was the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team, but the Tide were bumped out of the field to make room for ACC champion Clemson, which was ranked No. 16. They also moved behind Big 12 champion Arizona State, ranked No. 12. The five highest-ranked conference champions continue to receive guaranteed spots in the playoff. This could be an issue for a team such as Miami, if the Canes don’t win the ACC but are hovering around No. 11 or No. 12, or maybe the second-best team in the Big 12, or another SEC team looking for an at-large bid like South Carolina.


Bubble teams with early tests

Boise State: The Broncos’ trip to South Florida on Thursday is critical because both teams can win their respective conferences, and the head-to-head result likely would determine which league champion gets ranked higher. And it’s not even September yet. Boise State’s Oct. 4 trip to Notre Dame is even bigger because it’s a chance for the Broncos to show the committee how they match up against a team that played for the national title last season. One reason the committee held the Broncos in such high regard last year was because of a close loss at Oregon, which went on to win the Big Ten. Even in a loss, Boise State could prove something to help it separate from other Group of 5 contenders.

South Florida: The Bulls line up against three straight ranked opponents to start the season — Boise State, Florida and Miami. It’s the very definition of a make-or-break stretch. Though an 0-3 start would knock the Bulls out of the discussion, a win against Boise State could ultimately earn them a spot in the playoff. A victory could be the difference if the Broncos go on to win the Mountain West Conference and South Florida takes the American. The head-to-head outcome would keep the Bulls ranked higher — unless they lose to both Florida and Miami and the committee thinks that outweighs the season-opening result.

Miami: With a season opener against Notre Dame and an unofficial state championship against South Florida, Florida (and Florida State), the Canes will have critical nonconference results that could be factors on Selection Day if they are competing with any of those teams for an at-large bid. A road loss to FSU would put Miami behind in the ACC standings, leaving a Nov. 1 trip to SMU a likely must-win. The Canes don’t face Clemson during the regular season.

Oklahoma: How much better are the Sooners? September home games against Michigan and Auburn will help answer that. ESPN Analytics gives the Wolverines a 51.8% chance to win. If they do, the head-to-head result will likely cap Oklahoma’s rise in the rankings behind wherever Michigan lands as long as their records are comparable. OU probably can’t afford to go 0-2 against Michigan and Auburn because of a loaded schedule that includes five straight weeks against top-25 opponents.

Florida: By early October, Florida will have played back-to-back road games at Miami and LSU and hosted Texas. The Gators can’t go 0-3 against that lineup with the heart of SEC play still ahead.

Texas A&M: The Aggies’ Sept. 13 trip to Notre Dame could be critical if both teams are competing for an at-large spot. The head-to-head result is one of several tiebreakers the committee uses, and because independent Notre Dame can’t win a conference title, the winner could have the edge in the final debate.

Ole Miss: Don’t snooze on the Rebels’ September schedule. Tulane could win the American, which would help the Rebels’ résumé, and the Sept. 27 home game a week later against LSU will be their first opportunity at a statement win.


G5 contenders with no margin for error

Liberty might win Conference USA, but that doesn’t mean the Flames will make the playoff. They’d still have to finish as the selection committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. Historically, weak schedules have been the kryptonite for these contenders, putting tremendous pressure on them to go undefeated.

While the above-mentioned Boise State and USF have some marquee matchups, other Group of 5 contenders don’t have those opportunities to impress the committee, which means they need to be perfect to usurp the ones that do. Here’s a list of Group of 5 contenders ranked in order of their chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor:

Tulane (American)

ESPN Analytics: Tulane has the best chance in the American and the second-best chance among Group of 5 contenders (18.5%) to reach the playoff. The Green Wave have the best chance to win the league (38.9%).

SOS: No. 82

The challenge: The Sept. 20 trip to Ole Miss is the most difficult game on the schedule — and a chance to lift Tulane into the playoff conversation. This would be a huge upset, and it would create an interesting debate in the committee meeting room if Boise State also wins at Notre Dame.

UNLV (MWC)

ESPN Analytics: UNLV has the second-best chance to win the conference (32.9%) and a 17.3% chance to make the playoff — both second to Boise State.

SOS: No. 107

The challenge: Unless UCLA makes drastic improvements this fall, beating the Bruins at home won’t impress the selection committee much, but a win at Boise State on Oct. 18 will be critical to the conference standings. The Rebels, despite struggling to get past Idaho State in Week 0, are the Broncos’ top competition for the MWC title, and they could face each other again in the league championship game. If the Rebels lose to UCLA and Boise State during the regular season, though, even a conference title might not be enough to put them ahead of the American winner.

Memphis (American)

ESPN Analytics: Memphis has the second-best chance to win the league (29.5%) behind Tulane, and the fourth-best chance of any Group of 5 team (13.7%) to make the playoff.

SOS: No. 104

The challenge: Memphis hosts Arkansas on Sept. 20, a chance to show the committee it can beat a middle-of-the-pack SEC team. The value of a win against Arkansas depends on how the Hogs fare this season, but it’s still the kind of win that could help separate Memphis from another Group of 5 champion like Liberty. If the Tigers lose to Arkansas, it puts them in a precarious position with South Florida, Tulane and Navy remaining on their schedule.

Navy (American)

ESPN Analytics: Navy has the fifth-best chance of any Group of 5 team to make the playoff (4.2%) and the third-best chance to win the American (9.4%).

SOS: No. 86

The challenge: Close the gap with Notre Dame. In 2024, Navy was undefeated and ranked No. 24 at 6-0 before getting hammered by the Irish 51-14. This year, the Midshipmen are at Notre Dame on Nov. 8 with an opportunity to show the selection committee they can at least hang with one of the nation’s top teams if not beat them. Navy has to survive the back half of its schedule, which also includes South Florida, and a trip to Memphis.

UTSA (American)

ESPN Analytics: The Roadrunners have a 2.1% chance to reach the playoff, sixth among all Group of 5 contenders, and fourth best in the American. UTSA has a 6.7% chance to win its league.

SOS: No. 88

The challenge: Rebounding from the season opener at Texas A&M, where ESPN’s FPI gives the Aggies a 91.8% chance to win. Unless UTSA finds a way to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season, the Roadrunners then need to beat the top teams in their league to avoid finishing as a two-loss conference champion at best. The season will be decided with back-to-back games against Tulane and South Florida, but don’t overlook a sneaky trip to Colorado State on Sept. 20.

Toledo (Mid-American)

ESPN Analytics: Toledo has a 1.8% chance to make the playoff, the best in the MAC. Toledo has the best chance to win the MAC (23.2%), but it’s just a slight edge over Miami (Ohio) (22.9%).

SOS: No. 130

The challenge: Avoiding an 0-2 nonconference record against Kentucky and Washington State, both road games. ESPN’s FPI gives the Rockets less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. Two losses would put Toledo in a must-win situation in the MAC — with a road trip to Miami (Ohio) looming on Nov. 12. Toledo can’t afford to be a three-loss conference champion and hope for a playoff bid.

Liberty (C-USA)

ESPN Analytics: Liberty has a 1.2% chance to make the playoff, still the best in its league, and the Flames have a 36.2% chance to win C-USA.

SOS: No. 136

The challenge: Perfection. Liberty doesn’t play any Power 4 opponents and might not have any Top 25 teams on its schedule. The toughest stretch will come early, as the Flames go to Bowling Green, host James Madison and travel to Old Dominion in a three-week span.

Ohio (MAC)

ESPN Analytics: Ohio has the 10th-best chance to reach the playoff among Group of 5 teams (1.1%) and the third-best chance to win the MAC (20.7%) behind Toledo and Miami (Ohio).

SOS: No. 73

The challenge: September. Ohio opens its season with three straight games against Power 4 opponents: at Rutgers, home against West Virginia and at Ohio State. ESPN’s FPI projects Ohio will start 0-3 — and then run the table. Even if the Bobcats do that and win the MAC, the three losses would be extremely difficult to overcome in the committee meeting room.

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Sources: LSU RB Durham doubtful vs. Ole Miss

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Sources: LSU RB Durham doubtful vs. Ole Miss

LSU leading rusher Caden Durham is doubtful for Saturday night’s game at Ole Miss because of an ankle injury, sources told ESPN.

Durham was injured in last Saturday’s 56-10 win over SE Louisiana and has been limited in practice all week. According to sources, he is still dealing with the injury and did not run well in the team’s final walk-through Friday.

Durham had been listed as questionable on the SEC availability report on Thursday.

Durham easily leads the Tigers with 213 yards on 52 carries. LSU’s second-leading rusher, Harlem Berry, has 87 yards on 15 carries. Sophomore Ju’Juan Johnson is expected to see more action, as will junior Kaleb Jackson.

LSU’s offense is No. 111 nationally in rushing, averaging just 116.8 yards per game. That’s the second-lowest average in the SEC behind South Carolina (80.3).

The good news for the Tigers is that quarterback Garrett Nussmeier appears to have worked through a torso injury and is back in form. LSU has the country’s No. 30 passing offense.

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Wetzel: Mike Gundy dug in his heels and got left behind

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Wetzel: Mike Gundy dug in his heels and got left behind

Back in November of 2015, when his Clemson program was still barreling toward a national title (it would win two of them), Dabo Swinney spoke about the life cycle of a business.

“You’ve got the birth. You’ve got the growth. You’ve got plateau. You’ve got decline. And you’ve got death,” Swinney said. “Those great businesses out there, those great programs, they don’t plateau.

“So how do you do that?” he continued. “You have to constantly reinvent, reinvest, reset, learn, grow. You change. You have to do that. You don’t just change to change, but you have to always challenge yourself each and every year and make sure, ‘OK, this may be how we’ve done it, but is it still the right way?'”

The business of college football in 2025 is different from 2015. Direct revenue-sharing, NIL and the transfer portal have not just altered the way rosters are assembled, but even how individuals and teams need to be coached.

It’s like most businesses and industries. Nothing is static. You either enthusiastically welcome that, or, in Swinney’s words, “You’ve got death.”

Mike Gundy is very much alive; he just is no longer employed at Oklahoma State, where over 21 seasons he became the program’s all-time winningest coach. He and Swinney have much in common.

Both are in their mid-to-late 50s (Swinney 55, Gundy 58). Both built up underperforming programs through their own force of will — a combination of competitive drive, innovative schemes and personal charisma. During the 2010s, few were better.

They have also been among the most vocal critics, and least enthusiastic embracers, of the new era of the sport. It shows.

Dabo’s Tigers, hyped as title contenders in the preseason, are 1-3 with losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Gundy, meanwhile, was fired after a 1-2 start that included a humbling loss to Tulsa.

In his final news conference before being dismissed, Gundy bemoaned pretty much everything new.

“It’s like being in an argument with your wife,” Gundy said. “And you know you’re right. It makes zero difference. You’re wrong. You might as well just get over it, give in, and things are going to be much smoother.”

It seems that defeatist attitude and begrudging acceptance of new dynamics bled into Gundy’s program.

Anyone can add a player through the portal. But if you don’t accept and understand the portal, if you aren’t spending time passionately trying to make it work best for you, are you getting the right player? You can’t go in with feet dragging.

Swinney is a traditionalist; often for admirable reasons. He wants to be loyal to players he recruited, preferring to believe in and develop them rather than just transfer in a better talent.

Times change, though. You can lament it. You can pine for the old days. Or you can adapt so you don’t wind up like a typewriter repair shop.

Establishment coaches often rail against transfer culture, painting players who jump around as disloyal or running from a challenge. That might be the case for some, but for many others, the portal is a chance to prove their worth by working up the ladder from smaller to bigger programs.

Big programs recruit based on sophomore and junior years of high school. A lot of guys fall through those cracks. Maybe they hailed from small towns or hadn’t hit growth spurts, or their parents couldn’t afford throwing coaches and nutritionists. Maybe they didn’t get invited to the “Elite 11.”

Yet, once in college, they worked and worked and improved and improved, generally at smaller programs without the fanciest of locker rooms or some unearned sense of greatness based on “tradition.”

Others might have failed at their first school, or got spurned by a previous coach. Now, on their last chance, they are fighting the way they always should have.

As with old-school recruiting, coaches who love the portal are probably going to get the best of those players over coaches who just tolerate the portal. Diamonds are everywhere.

Syracuse and Georgia Tech didn’t have more “talent” — and certainly not higher-ranked recruits — when they beat Clemson. Same with Tulsa and OSU. They didn’t have better facilities or higher-paid assistants.

But they might have had what Dabo and Gundy used to exude in excess — an intense drive to win. High school recruiting rankings don’t matter to the scoreboard.

Gundy couldn’t make it work in the new era. Can the extremely talented Swinney? A lot of coaches can’t. It’s not an age thing, though — Indiana’s Curt Cignetti is 64 and thriving. It’s an attitude thing. It’s about fervently attacking new possibilities.

Reinvent, reinvest, reset, learn, grow.

It can’t be like holding your tongue in a fight with your spouse.

Mike Gundy already tried that approach.

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From The Big Dumper to … magic? Why Mariners might have the mojo to finally win it all

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From The Big Dumper to ... magic? Why Mariners might have the mojo to finally win it all

SEATTLE — It had been 24 years and five days since this city experienced its last division title, a wait that turned its baseball fans into one of this country’s most tortured. Babies were born, grew up, went to college, got a job, and their beloved Seattle Mariners still had not finished atop the American League West. Maybe this is how it was supposed to happen. With a nucleus that finally righted itself — after stumbling time and again — in the most emphatic way possible. With a dominant, soul-cleansing, late-season series sweep of the franchise’s greatest nemesis. With Cal Raleigh punctuating a division title with his 60th home run Wednesday night.

With, of all things, some help from the supernatural.

Three weeks ago, when the team was struggling and hope seemed lost, Steven Blackburn, a 26-year-old lifelong Mariners fan, found a witch. An Etsy witch, to be exact, which is precisely what you might think it is: a self-proclaimed sorcerer providing services through the popular e-commerce website.

Blackburn and one of his best friends had often joked about using an Etsy witch to fix some of their biggest problems and first thought about contracting one to help the Mariners some time around June. The Mariners weren’t playing quite bad enough then — but by Sept. 5, after a stretch of 15 losses in 21 games, they were. Blackburn searched for witches willing to cast generic spells, found a user going by the name of SpellByLuna and asked for an incantation that would turn around the Mariners’ once-promising season.

Said Blackburn: “Best $16 I’ve ever spent.”

The next morning at 5 a.m., Blackburn, an RV mechanic who lives about 30 miles north of T-Mobile Park, received a message that the spell had been cast. Later that night, All-Star center fielder Julio Rodríguez took over a game the Mariners absolutely needed, homering twice and making a leaping catch in a 10-2 victory. The next day, the Mariners blew out the Atlanta Braves 18-2. They’ve lost only once since, firing off 17 wins in 18 games since “Luna” unveiled the conjuration. Fans now show up at the ballpark in witches’ hats and, at times, full-on witch costumes. The organization has wrapped its arms around the concept, referencing the Etsy witch on social media and inviting Blackburn to the ballpark on Fan Appreciation Night earlier this month.

“It’s been super crazy,” he said. “I did this Etsy thing as a joke. I didn’t expect it to be this big.”

Blackburn wasn’t old enough to enjoy the 116-win 2001 team that claimed the previous division title and advanced into the AL Championship Series. His most vivid memories were of Mariners teams of the 2010s that featured the likes of Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Félix Hernández, none of which advanced into October, and of younger groups that came up painfully short in 2021, 2023 and 2024.

Blackburn fully acknowledges the absurdity of it all. But when certain things happen — Mitch Garver hitting his first triple in six years, journeyman infielder Leo Rivas delivering a walk-off home run, Victor Robles diving from out of nowhere to make a game-saving catch — he can’t help but believe there might be something to it. The 2025 Mariners look like the franchise’s deepest, most talented collection in a generation, headlined by a transformative individual season. They have the tortured fan base, the conquest of a bitter rival, and even a little magic around them.

“It just feels like we’re almost destined,” Blackburn said. “It’s been 48 years that this team has been around. This feels like it’s about time.”


IT WAS THE first day of June when Mariners general manager Justin Hollander first reached out to Amiel Sawdaye, assistant GM of the Arizona Diamondbacks, to inquire about Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. The trade deadline was still more than eight weeks away and the D-backs still maintained reasonable hope that they might contend. But Hollander vowed to stay in touch.

Under Jerry Dipoto, in his 10th year overseeing baseball operations, the Mariners had built a reputation as aggressive dealers. Trading promising prospects for veteran players on the verge of free agency, though, was the type of move they steered away from. But Suárez, a third baseman on a 50-homer pace, and Naylor, a first baseman who can hit for power, put the ball in play and even steal bases, addressed the team’s two biggest holes at a time that demanded urgency.

Raleigh was in the midst of a historic season. Rodríguez and the majority of the team’s best pitchers — starters Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller, relievers Andres Muñoz and Matt Brash — were in their mid to late 20s, representing what should be the apex of their careers. And the failure of these past two years, both of which saw the Mariners finish a game shy of the playoffs, had revealed something about the follies of pragmatism.

“You can sometimes take for granted how good you think your team is and how likely or not likely you are to make the postseason,” Hollander said. “We felt like this year’s team had the potential to be the best of any of the other teams.”

So Hollander continually scribbled reminders to call Sawdaye on the notepad he keeps beside a computer on his office desk. He checked in every week or so, just to make sure nothing had changed. The Mariners had interest in acquiring both players in a package deal, but when the call finally came near the end of July, the D-backs revealed their plans to separate them. Naylor arrived on July 24 and brought a type of edge the team needed. Suárez, a beloved figure from a previous stint in Seattle in 2022-23, followed on the night of July 30 and brought the type of vibe that soon became crucial.

Later, sources told ESPN, the Mariners were on the verge of acquiring star closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins. But when the Philadelphia Phillies upped their offer, the Mariners relented.

They still came away with two corner infielders who lengthened their lineup and made them a more dynamic unit than they’ve been in recent years, one not solely reliant on Raleigh and Rodríguez. Since then, the rotation has gotten healthy — minus Woo, whose pectoral injury is not expected to impact his postseason availability — and rounded into the type of form it displayed amid a record-setting 2024 season, posting a 2.50 ERA over these past 18 games. The bullpen — not only Muñoz and Brash, but Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo, Carlos Vargas and Caleb Ferguson, the veteran lefty acquired after a deal for Duran fell through — continues to look devastating.

Said Rodríguez: “We can do it all.”

“We’ve got athleticism, we’ve got team speed, we’ve got power, we’ve got starting pitching, a back end of the bullpen,” Dipoto said. “It’s very rare in our lives you get all those things hitting at the same time. And here in the last few weeks, they are. And they showed — they’re on a mission. And I don’t think that mission stops with making it to the postseason.”


THE LAST TIME the Mariners hosted a playoff game, it was Oct. 15, 2022, and to their fans, it became the most excruciating day possible. Seventeen innings went by without a run being scored. A Washington Huskies college football game started and ended during that time. Then Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña led off the top of the 18th inning with a home run to center field. After 6 hours, 22 minutes, the Mariners’ 2022 season — the one that ended the longest active playoff drought in North American professional sports — was over.

Heading into 2025, the Mariners had existed for 47 years and made the playoffs only five times. The best group was assembled in 2001, two years after the franchise’s most iconic player, Ken Griffey Jr., left to join the Cincinnati Reds. The Mariners tied the Chicago Cubs for the most wins in modern baseball history that year, then got trounced by the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Twenty-one years went by without another Mariners team in the playoffs; 24 went by without a division championship.

That 2001 season didn’t just mark the last time the Mariners had won the AL West; it marked the last time the people of Seattle had seen its team score a run at home in the playoffs, let alone win a game.

“We all know the history,” Rodríguez said. “We all know the hunger that this fan base has. That’s one thing that motivates us.”

The Mariners emerged from this year’s trade deadline with a 9-1 homestand, validating every belief that they had morphed into a powerhouse. They were 67-53 by Aug. 12, tied with the Houston Astros atop the AL West. Then the Mariners started to slide again. They went 2-7 on a trip through Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia. They bounced back by winning four of six at home but followed by dropping two of three in Cleveland.

Then they went to Tampa and lost back-to-back games to the Rays, after which Dipoto and manager Dan Wilson held a team meeting largely to emphasize that this was a talented, accomplished group that didn’t require any one individual to carry it. Suárez spoke about the importance of staying within themselves, J.P. Crawford emphasized the need for resiliency.

It didn’t work; the Mariners gave up eight runs in the first two innings of the finale, lost again, flew to Atlanta and were dominated by Braves ace Chris Sale on a Friday night, falling 3½ games out in the AL West.

Then, suddenly, everything changed.

The Mariners at one point won 10 in a row for the first time in more than three years. In one four-game series against the Los Angeles Angels, their pitchers set a major league record by accumulating 62 strikeouts. Over a 16-1 stretch, leading up to when they clinched the division, they outscored opponents by a combined 68 runs.

Maybe it was sorcery. Maybe it was the mustaches so many of the players and coaches started rocking when things went poorly, no matter how absurd some of them looked. Maybe it was the bag of crunchy Cheetos Dipoto began delivering to radio play-by-play voice Rick Rizzs on a daily basis, a callback to an old slump-busting ritual that reemerged on that Saturday in Atlanta because, as Dipoto said, “When he gets Cheetos, we score runs.”

Maybe it was a team that grew through struggle and finally learned how to overcome.

“We never give up,” Rodríguez said. “I feel like there’s a lot of people that break under pressure, and I feel like us as a team, we stick together. We’ve had some tough stretches, but I feel like that made us stronger. We were able to break through that. And we stayed together through that.”


DURING BATTING PRACTICE at Daikin Park in Houston last Sunday, Crawford wore socks that read: “Do Epic S—.” Then he came to bat in the second inning and hit the grand slam that basically took the archrival Astros out of the game, catapulted the Mariners to an emphatic three-game sweep and put them in position to capture their long-awaited division title.

The Astros’ ballpark is the site of the Yordan Álvarez walk-off home run against Robbie Ray in Game 1 of the 2022 AL Division Series, a moment from which those Mariners never recovered. It’s the home of a team that had claimed seven division titles over the past eight years, continually pushing Seattle into the background. And it’s a reminder of a year like 2023, when the Mariners arrived in Arlington, Texas, on the second-to-last weekend of the regular season trailing the division by only a half-game, were swept, and later watched the playoffs from their couches.

This time, though, it felt different.

“You could just feel the energy around in the clubhouse,” Crawford, the Mariners’ longest-tenured player, recalled. “Like, ‘Oh s—, it’s go time.’ It was cool.”

The Mariners never trailed in that series. Woo, Kirby and Gilbert combined to give up one run in 17 innings, during which they struck out 18 and walked two. Eight Mariners hitters drove in at least a run. The Mariners went into Houston tied for the top spot in the AL West and came out of it leading by three games, while holding the tiebreaker, with six remaining. Before their home series this week against the last-place Colorado Rockies was over — an eventual sweep, putting their winning streak at seven games — the Mariners had clinched a playoff spot, sealed the division, and earned a first-round bye, guaranteeing home-field advantage in the ALDS.

Given the opponent, the time of year and the ramifications, that series against the Astros might have been the most important in franchise history.

“We knew that was what had to happen,” Raleigh said. “It’s no secret — the Astros have owned this division for a long time. And to go out there and do it at their place, it meant a lot. It’s not just a random three games somewhere. They’re a really good team, they’re really tough. To do it in that fashion was special to these guys.”

The Mariners have fallen just short of the playoffs by stumbling down the stretch in each of the past two years. In 2023, an incredible August was followed by a brutal September that prompted elimination on the second-to-last day of the regular season. In 2024, the late-season firing of longtime manager Scott Servais was not enough to save a season that saw the Mariners blow a 10-game lead in 31 days and find themselves once again chasing over the final month. They grew from it.

“I just think that over the years, besides when we got to the playoffs in ’22, there’s always been so much pressure on us to get to the playoffs,” Kirby said. “And I think all of us were just like, ‘Screw that. Take every game one game at a time, do what you gotta do to get ready today and help the team.’ I think the vibes were so good. Normally, we feel all this pressure, but we just went out there and did our thing.”

When the final out was recorded Wednesday night, and the AL West had been secured, Wilson stood on the top step of the dugout and attempted to take it all in for a moment. Before he was thrust into the role as manager near the end of last August, Wilson spent a dozen years as a stalwart catcher during the best run in franchise history.

The Mariners made the playoffs four times with Wilson behind the plate from 1994 to 2005. Experiencing the emotions of it again felt “weirdly familiar and weirdly unfamiliar,” he said. He’s in a completely different role now, but he remembered the feeling so vividly. Of an entire city coming alive. Of a baseball team mattering so much. Of the excitement over what lies ahead.

“It brings back a lot,” Wilson said. “And it just feels really good that T-Mobile was as loud as it was, and as positive as it was, and that these guys are the reason why.”


A NAVY BLUE felt board is plastered on one of the walls inside the home clubhouse at T-Mobile Park, displaying Polaroid pictures of grown men donning the award handed out after every win: a pair of gold-plated testicles hanging from a chain and inscribed with a trident, appropriately called the “Nuts of the Game.” Thirty-eight pictures hung on that board this week. Only five of them featured Raleigh, who has taken on the responsibility of handing it out.

“He never gives the nuts to himself,” Crawford said. “He’s always looking out for someone else. It’s never about him. In reality, it should be.”

Raleigh will head into the final weekend, a home series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a realistic chance of breaking the AL home-run record of 62 set by Aaron Judge in 2022, and just as big a chance of beating him out for this year’s MVP Award. That the switch-hitting Raleigh, famously known as “The Big Dumper” for his prominent posterior, has achieved these offensive numbers — a .954 OPS, 60 home runs and 125 RBIs — while starting 118 games at catcher is akin to “asking Josh Allen to play middle linebacker on top of being the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills,” Hollander said.

The Mariners have played a major league-leading 14 games that lasted at least 11 innings this season, which only means longer nights for their best player. Their staff is composed of pitchers who throw a lot of sinkers and splitters, pitches that are often thrown in the dirt, which also means more blocking. Raleigh has made 4,385 block attempts this season, more than all but five other players. He has squatted to receive 8,715 pitches, fourth-most in the majors, over 1,063 innings, third-most. He has also absorbed countless foul tips, made countless pitch calls and spent countless hours dedicated to the task of getting opposing hitters out, all while hitting like few others.

“As a catcher, you come off the field at the end of the night being both physically and mentally exhausted,” Wilson said. “To be able to do that night in and night out and produce like he has offensively — it’s never been done like this before. We can honestly say that.”

Raleigh has produced 12 more home runs than the previous record for a primary catcher, set by Salvador Perez in 2021. Not long after clearing Perez, he passed Mickey Mantle for the most home runs by a switch-hitter (54 in 1961) and Griffey for the most home runs in Mariners history (56 in 1997 and ’98). He did it while coming off a Platinum Glove season, during a year in which he has made his right-handed swing every bit as lethal as his left-handed one. But in Seattle, there’s an appeal to Raleigh that stretches beyond production.

“He feels like one of them, and the way he interacts is insanely humble,” Dipoto said. “And when you talk to him, it’s not an act. It’s who he is.”

Raleigh started the scoring on Wednesday night with a first-inning home run, his 59th. Seven innings later — on the first pitch of his last at-bat, with 42,883 fans once again serenading him with MVP chants — he finished it with his 60th, tying a major league record with his 11th multi-homer game this season.

“Sixty,” Raleigh said later that night. “I don’t know what to say. I didn’t know if I was gonna hit 60 in my life.”

Earlier this spring, ahead of putting pen to paper on a $105 million extension, Raleigh met with the Mariners’ principal decision-makers to express his desire to win with this group and hoped to learn that they shared his ambition. What followed was the best offensive season a catcher has ever produced, at the center of a baseball team that, depending on what happens over this next month, could be the greatest this city has ever experienced.

“To do it in this fashion has been crazy and exciting and fun and everything that I hoped and dreamed it would be,” said Raleigh, who snapped the Mariners’ playoff drought with a walk-off homer three years earlier. “This is a great, great, great moment for this organization and city. We know we still have more work to do; we’re really excited to have that opportunity.”

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