Explaining how they plan to tackle what they described as illegal migration, Nigel Farage and his Reform UK colleague Zia Yusuf were happy to disclose some of the finer details – how much money migrants would be offered to leave and what punishments they would receive if they returned.
But the bigger picture was less clear.
How would Reform win a Commons majority, at least another 320 seats, in four years’ time – or sooner if, as Mr Farage implied, Labour was forced to call an early election?
How would his party win an election at all if, as its leader suggested, other parties began to adopt his policies?
Highly detailed legislation would be needed – what Mr Farage calls his Illegal Migration (Mass Deportation) Bill.
But Reform would not have a majority in the House of Lords and, given the responsibilities of the upper house to scrutinise legislation in detail, it could take a year or more from the date of an election for his bill to become law.
• The United Nations refugee convention of 1951, extended in 1967, which says people who have a well-founded fear of persecution must not be sent back to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom
• The United Nations convention against torture, whose signatories agree not expel, return or extradite anyone to a country where there are substantial grounds to believe the returned person would be in danger of being tortured
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13:31
Farage sets out migration plan
According to the policy document, derogation from these treaties is “justified under the Vienna Convention doctrine of state necessity”.
That’s odd, because there’s no mention of necessity in the Vienna Convention on the law of treaties – and because member states can already “denounce” (leave) the three treaties by giving notice.
It would take up to a year – but so would the legislation. Only six months’ notice would be needed to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, another of Reform’s objectives.
Mr Farage acknowledged that other European states were having to cope with an influx of migrants. Why weren’t those countries trying to give up their international obligations?
His answer was to blame UK judges for applying the law. Once his legislation had been passed, Mr Farage promised, there would be nothing the courts could do to stop people being deported to countries that would take them. His British Bill of Rights would make that clear.
Courts will certainly give effect to the will of parliament as expressed in legislation. But the meaning of that legislation is for the judiciary to decide. Did parliament really intend to send migrants back to countries where they are likely to face torture or death, the judges may be asking themselves in the years to come.
They will answer questions such as that by examining the common law that Mr Farage so much admires – the wisdom expressed in past decisions that have not been superseded by legislation. He cannot be confident that the courts will see the problem in quite the same way that he does.
Sir Keir Starmer has said the next election will be an “open fight” between Labour and Reform UK.
The prime minister, speaking at a conference alongside the leaders of Canada, Australia and Iceland, said the UK is “at a crossroads”.
“There’s a battle for the soul of this country, now, as to what sort of country do we want to be?” he said.
“Because that toxic divide, that decline with Reform, it’s built on a sense of grievance.”
It is the first time Sir Keir has explicitly said the next election would be a straight fight between his party and Reform – and comes the day before the Labour conference begins.
Just hours before, after Sky News revealed Nigel Farage is on course to replace him, as a seat-by-seat YouGov poll found an election held tomorrow would result in a hung parliament, with Reform winning 311 seats – just 15 short of the 326 needed to win overall.
Once the Speaker, whose seat is unopposed, and Sinn Fein MPs, who do not sit in parliament, are accounted for, no other party would be able to secure more MPs, so Reform would lead the government.
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4:50
YouGov: Farage set to be next PM
Sir Keir said there is a “right-wing proposition” the UK has not had before, as it has been decades of either a Labour or Tory government, “pitched usually pretty much on the centrepiece of politics, the centre ground of politics”.
The PM said Reform and its leader, Mr Farage, provide a “very different proposition” of “patriotic national renewal” under Labour and a “toxic divide”.
He described his Labour government of being “capable of expressing who and what we are as a country accurately and in a way where people feel they’re valued and they belong, and that we can actually move forward together”.
Sir Keir referenced a march down Whitehall two weeks ago, organised by Tommy Robinson, as having “sent shivers through the spines of many communities well away from London”.
Elon Musk appeared via videolink at the rally and said “violence is coming to you”, prompting accusations of inciting violence.
Image: The PM said Reform presents a ‘toxic divide
The prime minister said the choice for voters at the next election, set to be in 2029, “is not going to be the traditional Labour versus Conservative”.
“It’s why I’ve said the Conservative Party is dead,” he added.
“Centre-right parties in many European countries have withered on the vine and the same is happening in this country.”
Reacting to Sir Keir’s comments, a Reform UK spokesman said: “For decades, the British people have been betrayed by both Labour and the Conservatives.
“People have voted election after election for lower taxes and controlled immigration, instead, both parties have done the opposite.
“The public are now waking up to the fact Starmer is just continuing the Tory legacy of high taxes and mass immigration.”