Connect with us

Published

on

Former prime minister David Cameron once described himself as a “modern, compassionate Conservative”.

That was in 2011, in an interview during the party’s annual conference in Manchester, the early years of the coalition.

“Cameronism” – or “Cameroonism”, you take your pick – became the self-defined lens of conservatism that Cameron used during his six years in Number 10. Austerity, combined with policy to appeal to social liberals, such as equal marriage, and environmental “responsibility – to the next generation”.

Fourteen years on from that interview, “Badenochism” has yet to truly define itself, but it’s fair to say that the Conservatives of 2010 are different to those of 2025.

The party has shifted further to the right in recent years, with some jumping ship to join Reform UK. Both parties are now fighting for the soul of the British right.

This got Electoral Dysfunction listener Sean thinking – he sent in a question about whether defectors would be welcomed back to the Conservatives in the future. Co-host Ruth Davidson, who previously was leader of the Scottish Conservatives in Holyrood, had plenty of thoughts.

Ruth says…

Ruth Davidson was previously leader of the Scottish Conservatives - she now co-hosts Electoral Dysfunction
Image:
Ruth Davidson was previously leader of the Scottish Conservatives – she now co-hosts Electoral Dysfunction

The kind of conservatism that I represent, I think, is very far from Reform.

More on Daily Podcast

There are some people within the Conservative Party that see almost the Conservative-Reform spectrum as a continuum, and that actually one bleeds into the other, and there may even be a bit of crossover in it.

I don’t see it like that.

I find what’s alarming [is] the journey from a Conservative Party Conference where you had David Cameron as leader, you had Justine Greening, you had Greg Clarke, you had Dominic Grieve, William Hague, you had all of these people, you had a really broad tent.

You had people like Liam Fox that were representing the right of the party.

The Conservatives are being 'outflanked' on the right, Ruth says
Image:
The Conservatives are being ‘outflanked’ on the right, Ruth says

The idea that we’ve gone from such a broad church to now fighting on such a small patch of ground over immigration.

The attack that Kemi’s getting from within the party, he would say that he’s trying to be supportive, but in terms of the challenge she’s getting within from Robert Jenrick, it’s all on this really narrow patch of land.

If you look at the broad swathes of policy that’s out there that affects people in economics, in business, in social care, in public services, in education, in opportunities for young people, we could fight on any ground and the fights that we’re choosing to have right now are on this really, really narrow path of ground.

We’re being outflanked on the right and we’re drifting ever further towards there. It makes me sad as somebody that believes in “big tent” conservatism.

Has Reform's arrival ended 'big tent' conservatism?
Image:
Has Reform’s arrival ended ‘big tent’ conservatism?

I think when your party is under threat, and I think this happens to all parties, when you’re reducing rather than expanding, you talk to your base to try to generate your base to come out for you.

You don’t then talk to try to convert others who have previously voted for other parties at different elections.

You’ve all of these groups that exist that are populated by people who are still of the more centre-right views rather than right views – like the Conservative Environment Network, LGBT+ Conservatives – but the difficulty they have is that they have that same sort of confliction that we saw a lot of parliamentarians under Jeremy Corbyn had – like Jess Phillips, like Wes Streeting.

They want to be loyal to the party, they want to support the leader, but they struggle with the fact that what the vehicle is espousing is not their beliefs.

Electoral Dysfunction unites political powerhouses Beth Rigby, Ruth Davidson, and Harriet Harman to cut through the spin, and explain to you what’s really going on in Westminster and beyond.

Want to leave a question for Beth, Ruth, and Harriet?

Email: electoraldysfunction@sky.uk

WhatsApp: 07934 200444

Continue Reading

Politics

Polymarket puts December rate-cut odds at 87% as crypto stocks climb

Published

on

By

Polymarket puts December rate-cut odds at 87% as crypto stocks climb

Several crypto-linked stocks climbed on Friday as prediction-market odds of a December rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level this month.

Three US-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising in the session and showing double-digit gains over the past five days.

Federal Reserve, United States, Predictions
Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source: Polymarket

Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase notched more modest increases at the time of writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) was also up around 7% on the week, after dropping to around $82,000 on Nov. 21, according to CoinGecko data.

Federal Reserve, United States, Predictions
Top 10 Bitcoin mining stocks. Bitcoin Mining Stock

Much of the volatility in prediction-market pricing this month has been driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials. 

On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” a remark investors took as hawkish — which means the Fed could delay rate cuts and keep conditions tight. Polymarket odds slipped from 89% the day before to as low as 22% by Nov. 20.

Sentiment shifted on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, arguing that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation is now “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target.

Related: Kalshi, Polymarket traders bet Supreme Court will curb Trump’s tariff powers

Prediction markets expand as demand surges

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which enable bettors to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, have expanded their reach and influence this year.

On Nov. 13, Polymarket inked a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to serve as the official prediction-market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championships and Zuffa Boxing. The partnership came shortly after it partnered with North American fantasy sports operator PrizePicks.

The same month, Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, pushing its valuation to $11 billion, according to a TechCrunch report citing a person familiar with the deal. The new round followed a $300 million raise in October.

On Nov. 19, rumors emerged that Coinbase is developing its own prediction-market platform after tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong posted screenshots of an unreleased site. Wong’s images indicated the product would be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and backed by Kalshi.

Federal Reserve, United States, Predictions
Source: Jane Manchun Wong

On Wednesday, Robinhood said prediction markets have quickly become one of its fastest-growing revenue drivers, with more than one million users trading nine billion contracts since the product launched in March through a partnership with Kalshi.

Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice