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The vast majority of policymakers in Westminster, let alone elsewhere around the UK, have never heard of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the geopolitical grouping currently holding its summit at Tianjin, but hear me out on why we should all be paying considerable attention to it.

Because the more attention you pay to this grouping of 10 Eurasian states – most notably China, Russia and India – the more you start to realise that the long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine might well reach far beyond Europe’s borders, changing the contours of the world as we know it.

The best place to begin with this is in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Back then, there were a few important hallmarks in the global economy. The amount of goods exported to Russia by the G7 – the equivalent grouping of rich, industrialised nations – was about the same as China’s exports. Europe was busily sucking in most Russian oil.

But roll on to today and G7 exports to Russia have gone to nearly zero (a consequence of sanctions). Russian assets, including government bonds previously owned by the Russian central bank, have been confiscated and their fate wrangled over. But Chinese exports to Russia, far from falling or even flatlining, have risen sharply. Exports of Chinese transportation equipment are up nearly 500%. Meanwhile, India has gone from importing next to no Russian oil to relying on the country for the majority of its crude imports.

Indeed, so much oil is India now importing from Russia that the US has said it will impose “secondary tariffs” on India, doubling the level of tariffs paid on Indian goods imported into America to 50% – one of the highest levels in the world.

The upshot of Ukraine, in other words, isn’t just misery and war in Europe. It’s a sharp divergence in economic strategies around the world. Some countries – notably the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – have doubled down on their economic relationship with Russia. Others have forsworn Russian business.

And in so doing, many of those Asian nations have begun to envisage something they had never quite imagined before: an economic future that doesn’t depend on the American financial infrastructure. Once upon a time, Asian nations were the biggest buyers of American government debt, in part to provide them with the dollars they needed to buy crude oil, which is generally denominated in the US currency. But since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has begun to sell its oil without denominating it in dollars.

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At the same time, many Asian nations have reduced their purchases of US debt. Indeed, part of the explanation for the recent rise in US and UK government bond yields is that there is simply less demand for them from foreign investors than there used to be. The world is changing – and the foundations of what we used to call globalisation are shifting.

The penultimate reason to pay attention to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is that while once upon a time its members accounted for a small fraction of global economic output, today that fraction is on the rise. Indeed, if you adjust economic output to account for purchasing power, the share of global GDP accounted for by the nations meeting in Tianjin is close to overtaking the share of GDP accounted for by the world’s advanced nations.

And the final thing to note – something that would have seemed completely implausible only a few years ago – is that China and India, once sworn rivals, are edging closer to an economic rapprochement. With India now facing swingeing tariffs from the US, New Delhi sees little downside in a rare trip to China, to cement relations with Beijing. This is a seismic moment in geopolitics. For a long time, the world’s two most populous nations were at loggerheads. Now they are increasingly moving in lockstep with each other.

That is a consequence few would have guessed at when Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet it could be of enormous importance for geopolitics in future decades.

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Energy group Ovo plots sale of stake in software arm Kaluza

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Energy group Ovo plots sale of stake in software arm Kaluza

The energy supplier Ovo is plotting the sale of a stake in its software arm at a ‘unicorn’ valuation as part of efforts to strengthen the balance sheet of Britain’s fourth-largest residential gas and electricity group.

Sky News has learnt that Ovo, which has just under 4m retail customers, has appointed Arma Partners, the investment bank, to explore options for Kaluza.

It replicates a move by larger rival Octopus Energy – revealed by Sky News – to hire advisers to work on a demerger of its Kraken software arm at a potential valuation of well over $10bn (£7.4bn).

Kaluza, which describes itself as an energy intelligence platform and this week announced a licensing partnership with the French-based energy group Engie, is 80%-owned by Ovo.

The remaining 20% is owned by AGL, an Australian energy company which bought a stake last year in a deal valuing Kaluza at $500m (£395m).

Industry sources said that Ovo was likely to seek a valuation for Kaluza in any new transaction of well over $1bn, although they added that there were questions about the software business’s path to sustainable profitability and its pipeline of new customers.

One analyst suggested that Kaluza’s majority-owner could pitch a valuation for Kaluza – run by chief executive Melissa Gander – of as much as $2.5bn based on annual recurring revenue (ARR).

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Kaluza recently bought Beige Technologies, an Australian energy software specialist, in order to strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

The prospective Kaluza stake sale comes amid a wider effort by Ovo to bolster its financial position.

Rothschild, the investment bank, has been orchestrating talks with potential investors about a plan to inject in the region of £300m into the company.

At one point, this is understood to have included discussions with Iberdrola, the owner of rival supplier Scottish Power.

Centrica, the owner of British Gas, may also have expressed an interest in examining a deal, according to banking sources.

A deal with another third party is said to be likely before the end of the year.

On Friday, Sky News revealed that the company – like Octopus Energy – had so far failed to meet targets imposed as part of a new capital adequacy regime overseen by Ofgem, the industry regulator.

A spokesperson for Ovo said it had “taken proactive measures to align with Ofgem’s new capital rules, working constructively to meet the requirements.”

Ovo recently named Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the former boss of Virgin Money, as the independent chair of its retail arm.

Founded by Stephen Fitzpatrick, the entrepreneur who now owns London’s Kensington Roof Gardens, Ovo’s existing shareholders include the private equity firm Mayfair Equity Partners, Morgan Stanley Investment Management and Mitsubishi Corporation, the Japanese conglomerate.

Under Mr Fitzpatrick, who launched Ovo in 2009, the company positioned itself as a challenger brand offering superior service to the industry’s established players.

Ovo’s transformational moment came in 2020, when it bought the retail supply arm of SSE, transforming it overnight into one of Britain’s leading energy companies.

Its growth has not been without difficulties, however, particularly in relation to its challenged relationship with Ofgem and a torrent of customer complaints about overcharging.

The group is now run by David Buttress, who was briefly Boris Johnson’s cost-of-living tsar after leaving the top job at Just Eat, as its chief executive.

Kaluza declined to comment on the appointment of Arma Partners.

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Harrods customers’ details stolen in IT systems breach

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Harrods customers' details stolen in IT systems breach

Harrods has warned its e-commerce customers that their personal data may have been taken in an IT systems breach.

Information like customers’ names and contact details was taken after one of Harrods’ third-party provider systems was compromised, the luxury London department store said.

Affected customers have been informed and reassured that the impacted data is “limited to basic personal identifiers”, a spokesperson said.

Account passwords or payment details were not affected in the breach.

“The third party has confirmed this is an isolated incident which has been contained, and we are working closely with them to ensure that all appropriate actions are being taken. We have notified all relevant authorities,” Harrods added.

“No Harrods system has been compromised and it is important to note that the data was taken from a third-party provider.”

This comes four months after the department store restricted internet access as a precautionary measure due to “attempts to gain unauthorised access” to some of its systems.

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Friday’s breach is “unconnected” to the attempts in May, the spokesman said.

Two men aged 19, a 17-year-old boy and a 20-year-old woman were arrested in July over their suspected involvement in cyber attacks on Harrods, Marks & Spencer, and the Co-op.

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They were arrested on suspicion of blackmail, money laundering, offences linked ot the Computer Misuse Act, and participating in the activities of an organised crime group, the National Crime Agency said.

All four have been bailed pending further inquiries.

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Nursery hackers: ‘There’s more to come’

It comes as hackers claim to have stolen pictures, names and addresses of thousands of children in a cyber attack on a nursery chain in London.

The group, calling itself Radiant, has released personal information about children and staff at the Kido nursery chain on the dark web and demanded a ransom from the company.

Radiant told Sky News on Friday it intends to imminently release the profiles of more children and employees.

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

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Trump trade war expands to cover many drugs, trucks and furniture

Donald Trump has revealed a fresh round of trade tariffs on several key sectors, with the most punitive rate likely to affect UK businesses.

The US president used his Truth Social account last night to confirm that a new 100% tariff would apply to any branded or patented pharmaceutical product from 1 October.

He said that to escape the clutches of that duty, a company must have already broken ground on a new US factory.

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From the same date, a 50% tariff would be applied to all imported kitchen and bathroom cabinets while upholstered furniture faced a 30% rate.

A 25% tariff faced shipments of heavy trucks.

The president did not confirm whether the duties would be lower for nations to have agreed trade deals with his administration, including the UK and European Union.

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Each faces a blanket 10% and 15% rate on their exports respectively at the moment.

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What does UK-US trade deal involve?

It is likely, however, that the new duties will be applied in line with other, higher, sectoral tariffs that are currently in place above those agreed rates.

“The reason for this is the large scale “FLOODING” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries,” Trump said in his post.

The lack of detail around the application of the planned new tariff rules means further uncertainty for companies potentially affected.

Shares in pharmaceutical firms listed in Asia fell sharply overnight as industry bodies rushed to seek clarification on the new rules.

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AstraZeneca – the UK’s most valuable listed company – already has vast US manufacturing and research operations.

In July, as the threat of tariffs loomed large, it revealed plans for a further $50bn investment by 2030.

US figures show the country imported $233bn of drugs and medicines from abroad last year.

A 100% tariff rate, even on some of those shipments, risk ramping up the cost of US healthcare.

By imposing the 100% tariff rate, Mr Trump wants to bring prices down through encouraging domestic production.

US industry groups lined up to oppose the planned measures.

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America said non-US companies were continuing to announce hundreds of billions of dollars in new US. investments. “Tariffs risk those plans,” it said.

The US Chamber of Commerce urged a U-turn on any truck tariffs.

It said the five nations to be worst affected – Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany, and Finland – were “allies or close partners of the United States posing no threat to US national security.”.

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