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Marc Benioff, co-founder and CEO of Salesforce, attends the 50th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 21, 2020.

Denis Balibouse | Reuters

There was a moment, during the pandemic-fueled growth days of 2020, when Salesforce surpassed Oracle by market cap. Marc Benioff had finally toppled his protege, Larry Ellison.

That moment is long gone.

Salesforce’s stock price has dropped 25% this year, the worst performance in large-cap tech and the second-steepest decline in the Dow, beating only UnitedHealth. Meanwhile, Oracle has jumped 34%, outperforming most of its peers and well outpacing the major indexes.

The two companies that were once about even by valuation are now separated by about $400 billion. Oracle is worth $630 billion, and Salesforce has dropped to $239 billion. Ellison now ranks second behind Elon Musk on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with a $278 billion net worth. Benioff sits in 318th place at $10.4 billion.

Investors are eager to hear how Benioff plans to right the ship when Salesforce reports quarterly results after the close on Wednesday.

Sales growth has been mired in the single digits for four straight quarters as the company reckons with the challenges of saturation in its key market of customer relationship management software. That streak is expected to continue, with analysts estimating revenue growth of 8.7% to $10.1 billion, according to LSEG.

During the April period, about a quarter of Salesforce’s $9.3 billion in subscription and support revenue came from products related to customer service, its biggest category. The company charges for its Service Cloud offering based on the number of agents who use the software.

With the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, some analysts predict more inquiries will be handled through automation, posing a risk to Salesforce.

Benioff is well aware of the challenge. He said in June that AI is already handling about 30% to 50% of the company’s work. It’s a big reason why Salesforce reportedly slashed 1,000 jobs earlier this year.

When it comes to customers, Salesforce now sells Agentforce, an AI system for answering customer support requests. After becoming available in October, Agentforce was delivering $100 million in annualized revenue, Benioff told analysts on a conference call in May.

AI is turning the software industry into a 'dangerous place to be in': Portfolio Manager

“It’s not significant enough to move the needle on this business, given the scale,” said Michael Turrin, a Wells Fargo analyst who has a hold recommendation on Salesforce shares.

The hope is that customers end up paying more for Agentforce than for Service Cloud, Turrin said.

The big difference for Oracle is that it’s one of the early beneficiaries of the AI boom. Known primarily for its database software that sits inside big companies and government agencies, Oracle has notched cloud infrastructure commitments from OpenAI and Musk’s xAI.

Agentforce could be Salesforce’s window into AI business, if it gains traction.

“I think there’s been a lot of frustration with Salesforce’s share performance, so I think we’re at a point where investors are trying to figure out if there’s an opportunity for a bit of a rebound here,” Turrin said.

Looking for double-digit growth

Demmert: We think this might be the quarter

In late 2022, activist investors started going after Salesforce, dissatisfied with Benioff’s high-cost acquisitions, the company’s underperforming stock and its expanding workforce. The activists began agitating for a more favorable mix of sales and profit, and Salesforce responded by expanding margins sooner than it had planned.

One of the main instigators, Starboard Value, is back for more. In the second quarter, the firm, which first bought Salesforce stock in 2022, boosted its holding by 47%, according to a filing. In October 2024, Starboard’s Jeff Smith complimented Salesforce’s profitability improvements but said he still believed “there’s a lot more to go.”

Vulcan Value Partners is a Salesforce shareholder that’s comfortable with the software company’s plans. After picking up a stake in 2020, Vulcan added 345,000 shares in the second quarter, increasing its total holdings to $300 million.

“The thing that we focus on is the value per share of the business,” said Stephen Simmons, a portfolio manager at the firm. “That is continuing to grow. There’s nothing we’re seeing that’s saying this company is going away anytime soon.”

Analysts expect earnings per share to increase to $2.78 for the latest quarter, up from $2.56 a year earlier, according to LSEG.

Vulcan sold its Oracle shares in 2020, missing out on a steep rally that followed. Simmons said he’d buy again if the stock becomes discounted.

“Funny how things go around and come around,” Simmons said. “Benioff starts Salesforce as a cloud-native enterprise company, and Larry’s over at Oracle trying to transition his on-prem customers to the cloud.”

WATCH: Trade Tracker: Bryn Talkington buys Salesforce and trims Dell

Trade Tracker: Bryn Talkington buys Salesforce and trims Dell

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Week in review: The Nasdaq’s worst week since April, three trades, and earnings

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Week in review: The Nasdaq's worst week since April, three trades, and earnings

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Too early to bet against AI trade, State Street suggests 

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Too early to bet against AI trade, State Street suggests 

Momentum and private assets: The trends driving ETFs to record inflows

State Street is reiterating its bullish stance on the artificial intelligence trade despite the Nasdaq’s worst week since April.

Chief Business Officer Anna Paglia said momentum stocks still have legs because investors are reluctant to step away from the growth story that’s driven gains all year.

“How would you not want to participate in the growth of AI technology? Everybody has been waiting for the cycle to change from growth to value. I don’t think it’s happening just yet because of the momentum,” Paglia told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” earlier this week. “I don’t think the rebalancing trade is going to happen until we see a signal from the market indicating a slowdown in these big trends.”

Paglia, who has spent 25 years in the exchange-traded funds industry, sees a higher likelihood that the space will cool off early next year.

“There will be much more focus about the diversification,” she said.

Her firm manages several ETFs with exposure to the technology sector, including the SPDR NYSE Technology ETF, which has gained 38% so far this year as of Friday’s close.

The fund, however, pulled back more than 4% over the past week as investors took profits in AI-linked names. The fund’s second top holding as of Friday’s close is Palantir Technologies, according to State Street’s website. Its stock tumbled more than 11% this week after the company’s earnings report on Monday.

Despite the decline, Paglia reaffirmed her bullish tech view in a statement to CNBC later in the week.

Meanwhile, Todd Rosenbluth suggests a rotation is already starting to grip the market. He points to a renewed appetite for health-care stocks.

“The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund… which has been out of favor for much of the year, started a return to favor in October,” the firm’s head of research said in the same interview. “Health care tends to be a more defensive sector, so we’re watching to see if people continue to gravitate towards that as a way of diversifying away from some of those sectors like technology.”

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, which has been underperforming technology sector this year, is up 5% since Oct. 1. It was also the second-best performing S&P 500 group this week.

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People with ADHD, autism, dyslexia say AI agents are helping them succeed at work

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People with ADHD, autism, dyslexia say AI agents are helping them succeed at work

Neurodiverse professionals may see unique benefits from artificial intelligence tools and agents, research suggests. With AI agent creation booming in 2025, people with conditions like ADHD, autism, dyslexia and more report a more level playing field in the workplace thanks to generative AI.

A recent study from the UK’s Department for Business and Trade found that neurodiverse workers were 25% more satisfied with AI assistants and were more likely to recommend the tool than neurotypical respondents.

“Standing up and walking around during a meeting means that I’m not taking notes, but now AI can come in and synthesize the entire meeting into a transcript and pick out the top-level themes,” said Tara DeZao, senior director of product marketing at enterprise low-code platform provider Pega. DeZao, who was diagnosed with ADHD as an adult, has combination-type ADHD, which includes both inattentive symptoms (time management and executive function issues) and hyperactive symptoms (increased movement).

“I’ve white-knuckled my way through the business world,” DeZao said. “But these tools help so much.”

AI tools in the workplace run the gamut and can have hyper-specific use cases, but solutions like note takers, schedule assistants and in-house communication support are common. Generative AI happens to be particularly adept at skills like communication, time management and executive functioning, creating a built-in benefit for neurodiverse workers who’ve previously had to find ways to fit in among a work culture not built with them in mind.

Because of the skills that neurodiverse individuals can bring to the workplace — hyperfocus, creativity, empathy and niche expertise, just to name a few — some research suggests that organizations prioritizing inclusivity in this space generate nearly one-fifth higher revenue.

AI ethics and neurodiverse workers

“Investing in ethical guardrails, like those that protect and aid neurodivergent workers, is not just the right thing to do,” said Kristi Boyd, an AI specialist with the SAS data ethics practice. “It’s a smart way to make good on your organization’s AI investments.”

Boyd referred to an SAS study which found that companies investing the most in AI governance and guardrails were 1.6 times more likely to see at least double ROI on their AI investments. But Boyd highlighted three risks that companies should be aware of when implementing AI tools with neurodiverse and other individuals in mind: competing needs, unconscious bias and inappropriate disclosure.

“Different neurodiverse conditions may have conflicting needs,” Boyd said. For example, while people with dyslexia may benefit from document readers, people with bipolar disorder or other mental health neurodivergences may benefit from AI-supported scheduling to make the most of productive periods. “By acknowledging these tensions upfront, organizations can create layered accommodations or offer choice-based frameworks that balance competing needs while promoting equity and inclusion,” she explained.

Regarding AI’s unconscious biases, algorithms can (and have been) unintentionally taught to associate neurodivergence with danger, disease or negativity, as outlined in Duke University research. And even today, neurodiversity can still be met with workplace discrimination, making it important for companies to provide safe ways to use these tools without having to unwillingly publicize any individual worker diagnosis.

‘Like somebody turned on the light’

As businesses take accountability for the impact of AI tools in the workplace, Boyd says it’s important to remember to include diverse voices at all stages, implement regular audits and establish safe ways for employees to anonymously report issues.

The work to make AI deployment more equitable, including for neurodivergent people, is just getting started. The nonprofit Humane Intelligence, which focuses on deploying AI for social good, released in early October its Bias Bounty Challenge, where participants can identify biases with the goal of building “more inclusive communication platforms — especially for users with cognitive differences, sensory sensitivities or alternative communication styles.”

For example, emotion AI (when AI identifies human emotions) can help people with difficulty identifying emotions make sense of their meeting partners on video conferencing platforms like Zoom. Still, this technology requires careful attention to bias by ensuring AI agents recognize diverse communication patterns fairly and accurately, rather than embedding harmful assumptions.

DeZao said her ADHD diagnosis felt like “somebody turned on the light in a very, very dark room.”

“One of the most difficult pieces of our hyper-connected, fast world is that we’re all expected to multitask. With my form of ADHD, it’s almost impossible to multitask,” she said.

DeZao says one of AI’s most helpful features is its ability to receive instructions and do its work while the human employee can remain focused on the task at hand. “If I’m working on something and then a new request comes in over Slack or Teams, it just completely knocks me off my thought process,” she said. “Being able to take that request and then outsource it real quick and have it worked on while I continue to work [on my original task] has been a godsend.”

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