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As we head toward the home stretch of the 2025 season, it’s time for my annual ranking of the core talent of all 30 MLB teams. This judges teams based on which players they have under contract through the next two full seasons — and you’ll find many clubs at the top of this list are in the thick of the playoff races over the final month.

For this exercise, salaries don’t matter and age isn’t a factor — but I’ll round up on projecting young players (and down on older players) because I’m projecting/ranking teams for a two-plus-year period. Very few players in either level of A-Ball are listed because they likely will contribute only at the end of 2027, if at all, even if they’re a top prospect.

To make it easier to see which team has more talent, I split players into three tiers: elite (5ish WAR talent, or perennial All-Stars with MVP chances), plus (3-5ish WAR types) and solid (1.5-3ish WAR, or lower-end starters and valuable role players). I included players who have easy-to-hit vesting options or club/player options that are likely to be picked up, but left out players with likely-to-be-exercised opt-outs. There’s some subjectivity in this area; star players who don’t qualify are called out below.

Players are listed in general order of my preference within each tier, so you can argue for a player who’s on the top/bottom of a tier to move up or down or flip two players who are back-to-back in the same tier. And the overall ranking isn’t coming from an algorithm that judges the teams or their players in each tier — I’m still comparing each list one by one. It’s often hard to compare the next 2½ years of value of a prospect in Double-A versus a proven veteran having a down season.

Jump to a team:

AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX

NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF


2024 rank: 1
2023 rank: 2
2022 rank: 3

Elite: Shohei Ohtani/DH+RHP

Plus: Will Smith/C, Yoshinobu Yamamoto/RHS, Freddie Freeman/1B, Mookie Betts/SS, Andy Pages/CF, Blake Snell/LHS, Tyler Glasnow/RHS

Solid: Tommy Edman/2B, Emmet Sheehan/RHS, Teoscar Hernandez/RF, Hyeseong Kim/2B, Tanner Scott/LHR, Brock Stewart/RHR, Justin Wrobleski/LHR, Dalton Rushing/C, Alex Freeland/SS, Roki Sasaki/RHS, Edgardo Henriquez/RHR, Josue De Paula/LF, Jack Dreyer/LHR, Zyhir Hope/RF, Mike Sirota/CF, Jackson Ferris/LHS, River Ryan/RHS, James Tibbs/RF

The Dodgers stay at the top, but some cracks have been forming since last year’s ranking. Betts and Freeman moved down a tier, Max Muncy fell off the list because he is under team control through next season, Bobby Miller and Roki Sasaki are among the young players who took a step backward, and several core players are in their 30s.

But the Dodgers still have the best mix of high-end hitting and pitching talent in the big leagues, with the biggest contributors under team control for at least a few more years, and they have the second-best farm system in baseball. They’re very likely to be in this area of the list next year.


2024 rank: 4
2023 rank: 3
2022 rank: 10

Elite: Cal Raleigh/C, Julio Rodriguez/CF

Plus: Logan Gilbert/RHS, George Kirby/RHS, Bryan Woo/RHS, Andres Munoz/RHR

Solid: Colt Emerson/SS, Kade Anderson/LHS, Luis Castillo/RHS, Gabe Speier/LHR, Cole Young/2B, Ryan Sloan/RHS, Matt Brash/RHR, Harry Ford/C, Michael Arroyo/2B, Lazaro Montes/RF, Luke Raley/RF, Victor Robles/CF, Bryce Miller/RHS, Dominic Canzone/RF, Jurrangelo Cijntje/SHP, Jonny Farmelo/CF, Ryan Bliss/2B

Raleigh and Woo have taken big steps forward this season while the rest of Seattle’s top-end big league talent has, at least, held strong, if not improved a bit.

Similar to the Dodgers, the Mariners also have one of the top farm systems, ranking third. Seattle has eight top 100 prospects, and most of them will be in Double-A or Triple-A to start next season. That next wave of talent looks impactful and could affect the major league level in 2026. That would be timely, as J.P. Crawford and Randy Arozarena are set to hit free agency after 2026, while Gilbert’s team control ends after 2027.


2024 rank: 5
2023 rank: 15
2022 rank: 8

Elite: Trea Turner/SS, Zack Wheeler/RHS, Cristopher Sanchez/LHS

Plus: Bryce Harper/1B, Jhoan Duran/RHR

Solid: Aaron Nola/RHS, Bryson Stott/2B, Brandon Marsh/CF, Aidan Miller/SS, Andrew Painter/RHS, Justin Crawford/CF, Orion Kerkering/RHR, Tanner Banks/RHR, Johan Rojas/CF, Gage Wood/RHR

Philadelphia has much less depth than Seattle because the Phillies have a few good big leaguers whose contracts end after this year or next: J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm, Jesus Luzardo, Matt Strahm, and Jose Alvarado.

The farm system isn’t as deep either, ranking 21st out of 30 teams, because the Phillies pushed their chips in for these next few seasons. But the top of the Phillies’ roster is really good, and it’s basically a coin flip with the Mariners for the second spot, depending on what kind of core you prefer. Wheeler’s injury and Nola’s down season made the difference for me.


2024 rank: 9
2023 rank: 10
2022 rank: 7

Elite: Francisco Lindor/SS, Juan Soto/RF

Plus: Brandon Nimmo/LF, Edwin Diaz/RHR

Solid: Nolan McLean/RHS, Jonah Tong/RHS, Francisco Alvarez/C, Jeff McNeil/2B, Brett Baty/3B, Jett Williams/SS, Carson Benge/CF, Sean Manaea/LHS, Tylor Megill/RHS, Kodai Senga/RHS, Mark Vientos/3B, Ronny Mauricio/3B, Christian Scott/RHS, Brandon Sproat/RHS, A.J. Ewing/CF, Jacob Reimer/3B, Ryan Clifford/1B, Reed Garrett/RHR, Jonathan Santucci/LHS, Will Watson/RHS

The Mets have one of the healthiest organizations in baseball, combining the top farm system in the game and a playoff-caliber major league club, with Pete Alonso the only key player who will likely test free agency.

I put Diaz in the plus tier and left off McLean and Tong because of their lack of longevity performing at that level, but in a month, those two prospect starters might move up a tier. Similar to the Mariners, the Mets have a wave of young talent that will open in the upper minors or big leagues next season and could define the next five years of the team.


2024 rank: 2
2023 rank: 1
2022 rank: 1

Elite: Ronald Acuna Jr./RF

Plus: Matt Olson/1B, Austin Riley/3B, Spencer Strider/RHS, Drake Baldwin/C, Spencer Schwellenbach/RHS, Sean Murphy/C

Solid: Michael Harris II/CF, Jurickson Profar/LF, Ozzie Albies/2B, Reynaldo Lopez/RHS, Hurston Waldrep/RHS, Didier Fuentes/RHS, JR Ritchie/RHS, AJ Smith-Shawver/RHS, Nacho Alvarez Jr./3B, Owen Murphy/RHS

It has been a down year for the Braves on numerous fronts. Chris Sale no longer qualifies for this exercise, Spencer Strider hasn’t been himself, and Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies moved down a tier. Injuries impacted Riley’s and Schwellenbach’s seasons, and Profar’s PED suspension limited his campaign.

This core has been so good for years, as you can see by the organization’s past ranks, that the Braves’ poor 2025 season still can’t knock them out of the top five. Waldrep, Fuentes, and Ritchie could all be answers to starting pitching needs in 2026, while Smith-Shawver, Murphy, and Cam Caminiti could be answers in 2027.


2024 rank: 14
2023 rank: 13
2022 rank: 20

Elite: Corbin Carroll/RF, Ketel Marte/2B

Plus: Geraldo Perdomo/SS, Gabriel Moreno/C, Corbin Burnes/RHS

Solid: Lourdes Gurriel Jr./LF, Brandon Pfaadt/RHS, Jordan Lawlar/SS, Ryne Nelson/RHS, Slade Caldwell/CF, Adrian Del Castillo/C, Tyler Locklear/1B, Ryan Waldschmidt/LF, Kohl Drake/LHS, Blaze Alexander/3B, Tommy Troy/2B, Eduardo Rodriguez/LHS, Justin Martinez/RHR, Alek Thomas/CF, Jake McCarthy/LF, Cristian Mena/RHS, Brandyn Garcia/LHR

Carroll, Marte and Perdomo have grown into an elite group of position players and Moreno isn’t that far behind. Burnes is an ace but might not pitch again until 2027, so the D-backs need to see this next group of young players continue to progress and supplement that core. Locklear, Drake and Garcia were acquired at the deadline, and Caldwell and Waldschmidt were their first two picks in the 2024 draft.


2024 rank: 13
2023 rank: 24
2022 rank: 24

Elite: Garrett Crochet/LHS

Plus: Roman Anthony/RF, Jarren Duran/LF, Ceddanne Rafaela/CF, Wilyer Abreu/RF

Solid: Trevor Story/SS, Brayan Bello/RHS, Marcelo Mayer/SS, Payton Tolle/LHS, Kristian Campbell/2B, Carlos Narvaez/C, Triston Casas/1B, Garrett Whitlock/RHR, Jhostynxon Garcia/CF, Tanner Houck/RHS, Kutter Crawford/RHS, Justin Slaten/RHR, Connelly Early/LHS, Luis Perales/RHS, Kyson Witherspoon/RHS

Very few players (mostly, those acquired at the deadline) aren’t under team control for multiple years, so the Sox set up well for this exercise.

Anthony could jump into the elite tier next season, with Mayer, Toll and Campbell all strong candidates to be in the plus tier next year or the year after. The end of the solid tier contains a lot of pitching depth to add to next year’s big league team, as do a few pitching prospects I didn’t list who could join the list next year.


2024 rank: 7
2023 rank: 5
2022 rank: 3

Elite: Jeremy Pena/SS, Hunter Brown/RHS

Plus: Yordan Alvarez/DH, Carlos Correa/SS, Isaac Paredes/3B, Josh Hader/LHR

Solid: Jose Altuve/2B, Jake Meyers/CF, Yainer Diaz/C, Cam Smith/RF, Christian Walker/1B, Brice Matthews/2B, Cristian Javier/RHS, Jesus Sanchez/RF, Ronel Blanco/RHS, Jacob Melton/CF

The Astros consistently rank high on this list and are akin to the Phillies because they both don’t have a highly ranked farm system, mainly due to their top-heavy big league roster.

Pena and Brown are recent farm system success stories to help supplement the older core, while Matthews and Melton debuted this year and are Houston’s top two current prospects.


2024 rank: 3
2023 rank: 6
2022 rank: 13

Elite: Gunnar Henderson/SS

Plus: Adley Rutschman/C, Samuel Basallo/C, Jordan Westburg/3B

Solid: Jackson Holliday/2B, Kyle Bradish/RHS, Dean Kremer/RHS, Colton Cowser/LF, Grayson Rodriguez/RHS, Felix Bautista/RHR, Dylan Beavers/RF, Tyler O’Neill/RF, Tyler Wells/RHS, Trey Gibson/RHS, Enrique Bradfield Jr./CF, Ike Irish/RF, Coby Mayo/3B, Cade Povich/LHS, Albert Suarez/RHS, Michael Forret/RHS

The O’s blitzed up this list, then came back to Earth as they joined the Braves in having a somewhat surprising down year in a few phases.

Rutschman/Basallo isn’t a problem, as they can easily coexist on a big league roster, but getting Rutschman right at the plate will be a big priority for 2026. Beavers, Mayo and Gibson could all play their way into big league roles in 2026, with Holliday, Cowser, and Rodriguez all solid bets to move into the plus tier.


2024 rank: 6
2023 rank: 9
2022 rank: 9

Elite: Jose Ramirez/3B

Plus: Steven Kwan/LF, Tanner Bibee/RHS, Cade Smith/RHR

Solid: Travis Bazzana/2B, Emmanuel Clase/RHR, Kyle Manzardo/1B, Chase DeLauter/RF, Gavin Williams/RHS, Parker Messick/LHS, Khal Stephen/RHS, Daniel Schneemann/2B, Angel Genao/SS, C.J. Kayfus/1B, Ben Lively/RHS, Luis L. Ortiz/RHS, Logan Allen/LHS, Gabriel Arias/SS, Ralphy Velazquez/1B

Cleveland continues to stay in the top 10 thanks to a heavily homegrown and cost-effective bunch, with only Ramirez making over $8 million this year. Clase’s future is unclear, but the first five players listed are strong figures for the organization. DeLauter, Messick, Stephen, and Velazquez could all be making a big league impact as soon as 2026 to push the Guardians back into the playoff race.


2024 rank: 12
2023 rank: 12
2022 rank: 12

Elite: Aaron Judge/RF

Plus: Max Fried/LHS, Gerrit Cole/RHS, Carlos Rodon/LHS

Solid: Austin Wells/C, George Lombard Jr./SS, Cam Schlittler/RHS, Ben Rice/1B, Clarke Schmidt/RHS, Will Warren/RHS, Spencer Jones/CF, Ryan McMahon/3B, Carlos Lagrange/RHS, Jose Caballero/SS, Luis Gil/RHS, Giancarlo Stanton/DH, Anthony Volpe/SS, Jasson Dominguez/CF, Camilo Doval/RHR

The Yankees have a slew of good players who don’t qualify for this list because they’re not under contractual control through 2027: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger, Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, David Bednar, and Trent Grisham.

Of those who qualify, there’s still plenty of star power and depth, with a nice group of young players in the upper minors or just getting to the big leagues. But the top four players are between 31 and 35 years old, so keeping those key veterans productive while shuffling in young players (or getting Volpe and Dominguez back on track) and shuffling out aging role players will be difficult.


2024 rank: 10
2023 rank: 11
2022 rank: 6

Elite: Fernando Tatis Jr./RF

Plus: Jackson Merrill/CF, Manny Machado/3B, Xander Bogaerts/SS, Mason Miller/RHR

Solid: Jeremiah Estrada/RHR, Jake Cronenworth/2B, Joe Musgrove/RHS, Yu Darvish/RHS, JP Sears/LHS, Freddy Fermin/C

The Padres continue to bet big in hopes of getting a title with this core, but the upper minors of the farm system and multiyear outlook for the depth of the big league team keep getting thinner.

After this season, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Ryan O’Hearn, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Arraez are set to hit free agency, and after next season, they’ll be joined by Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Ramon Laureano.

With very little minor league help to fill those holes, the Padres will have to pick their spots and continue to excel at finding overlooked players to plug holes once the big money has been spent. If they do that, and the key players listed above remain impactful, it could be enough to win a title; it’s just a little harder to imagine.


2024 rank: 17
2023 rank: 21
2022 rank: 12

Elite: None

Plus: William Contreras/C, Jackson Chourio/CF, Jacob Misiorowski/RHS, Brice Turang/2B, Christian Yelich/LF

Solid: Trevor Megill/RHR, Andrew Vaughn/1B, Sal Frelick/RF, Isaac Collins/LF, Abner Uribe/RHR, Caleb Durbin/3B, Jesus Made/SS, Joey Ortiz/SS, Luis Pena/SS, Logan Henderson/RHS, Quinn Priester/RHS, Cooper Pratt/SS, Aaron Ashby/LHR, Garrett Mitchell/CF, Luke Adams/1B, Jeferson Quero/C, Brock Wilken/3B, Luis Lara/CF, Jared Koenig/RHR, Tobias Myers/RHS, DL Hall/LHR

The Brewers have two organizational competencies that they balance very well: helping young players reach big league success and optimizing big leaguers to reach their potential. Making those two things work involves basically every department of a baseball team, so that’s why so few teams do both well year after year.

The Brewers might not have anyone in the elite category, but they have a few homegrown players who might make that jump next year, and their solid tier is one of the deeper ones in terms of players who could jump into plus next year. This organization’s top decision-makers will likely be targets for GM and team president searches over the next few years.


2024 rank: 15
2023 rank: 4
2022 rank: 14

Elite: Corey Seager/SS, Wyatt Langford/LF

Plus: Jacob deGrom/RHS, Marcus Semien/2B, Nathan Eovaldi/RHS

Solid: Evan Carter/CF, Josh Jung/3B, Josh Smith/SS, Sebastian Walcott/SS, Cody Bradford/LHS, Jack Leiter/RHS, Kumar Rocker/RHS, Jake Burger/1B, David Davalillo/RHS, Winston Santos/RHS, Alejandro Osuna/LF

It is deceptively difficult to spend big money in free agency and have those players hold their spots in the top two tiers for years. With that in mind, the Rangers deserve kudos on the non-Langford players in their top two tiers. Of course, Langford is also a development success story, as are the top few players in the solid tier.

This team has a few players set to hit free agency over the next two seasons. The best parts of the farm system are largely in the low minors (and thus not listed here) as Leiter, Rocker and Osuna graduated in the past year, and other minor leaguers were traded at the deadline for players on expiring deals. Walcott still has star potential but has some work over the next few years to realize it.


2024 rank: 22
2023 rank: 22
2022 rank: 28

Elite: None

Plus: Logan Webb/RHS, Matt Chapman/3B, Willy Adames/SS, Rafael Devers/1B, Patrick Bailey/C

Solid: Jung Hoo Lee/CF, Bryce Eldridge/1B, Randy Rodriguez/RHR, Ryan Walker/RHR, Drew Gilbert/CF, Landen Roupp/RHS, Carson Whisenhunt/LHS, Heliot Ramos/LF, Casey Schmitt/3B, Bo Davidson/CF, Jesus Rodriguez/C, Kai-Wei Teng/RHR

I like what president of baseball operations Buster Posey has done in remaking this big league team. He’s investing in star players (re-signing Chapman, signing Adames, trading for Devers), and at the deadline, he moved nonessential players or those on expiring deals to beef up the farm system.

The Giants aren’t quite where they need to be, but they’re getting close, and Eldridge should be showing up next year. Unfortunately, two of their top prospects are at the lower levels of the minors and don’t qualify for this list. With some money to spend this offseason, I could see this team being a contender next season.


2024 rank: 20
2023 rank: 20
2022 rank: 19

Elite: Elly De La Cruz/SS

Plus: Hunter Greene/RHS, Chase Burns/RHS, Andrew Abbott/LHS

Solid: Nick Lodolo/LHS, Matt McLain/2B, Sal Stewart/3B, Rhett Lowder/RHS, TJ Friedl/CF, Ke’Bryan Hayes/3B, Noelvi Marte/3B, Cam Collier/1B, Chase Petty/RHS, Spencer Steer/1B, Edwin Arroyo/SS, Hector Rodriguez/LF

The Reds have a nice young core of players, and the best players who don’t qualify for this list are under contract for next season: Gavin Lux, Tyler Stephenson, and Brady Singer. They’re competitive now and should be better next year, with real strengths in the infield and rotation. The challenge will be filling the holes around those key players and working in Stewart, Lowder, and Petty next season.


2024 rank: 8
2023 rank: 16
2022 rank: 22

Elite: Pete Crow Armstrong/CF

Plus: Dansby Swanson/SS, Michael Busch/1B

Solid: Matt Shaw/3B, Cade Horton/RHS, Justin Steele/LHS, Moises Ballesteros/C, Owen Caissie/RF, Daniel Palencia/RHR, Jefferson Rojas/SS, Ben Brown/RHS, Jaxon Wiggins/RHS, Kevin Alcantara/CF, Miguel Amaya/C, Jonathan Long/1B, Brandon Birdsell/RHS

The Cubs are having a solid season at the big league level, but the rules of this exercise mean the organization is having a slight down year. Since last year’s rankings, they traded Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith for Kyle Tucker (who doesn’t qualify) and have a big group of players who become free agents after 2026 and thus also don’t qualify: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Jameson Taillon, and Nico Hoerner.

Matthew Boyd has a mutual option after 2026 that seems unlikely to keep him from free agency, and I think Shota Imanaga will also need a raise or an extension (his contract options are quite complicated) after this season to keep him from free agency, so he also doesn’t qualify.

But the team is good and has a strong core of young players in the big leagues and upper minors (the top of the solid tier has upward mobility), but gets hurt by the rules of these rankings. The Cubs also need to re-sign a lot of players the next two winters to keep this group together.


2024 rank: 11
2023 rank: 19
2022 rank: 17

Elite: Byron Buxton/CF

Plus: Joe Ryan/RHS, Pablo Lopez/RHS

Solid: Walker Jenkins/CF, Luke Keaschall/2B, Royce Lewis/3B, Taj Bradley/RHS, Zebby Matthews/RHS, Matt Wallner/RF, Emmanuel Rodriguez/CF, Connor Prielipp/LHS, Kaelen Culpepper/SS, Mick Abel/RHS, Kendry Rojas/LHS, Gabriel Gonzalez/RF, Bailey Ober/RHS, Brooks Lee/SS, Trevor Larnach/RF, Kody Clemens/2B, Edouard Julien/2B, Simeon Woods-Richardson/RHS, Alan Roden/LF

The Twins stay in the middle third of the list, but after their moves at the trade deadline, this group is overwhelmingly made up of prospects and young players who haven’t proven themselves at the big league level, along with three standout holdovers. That’s a strong group to build around, with the first five players in the solid tier all having the potential to move up a grouping in next year’s rankings.


2024 rank: 16
2023 rank: 26
2022 rank: 27

Elite: Bobby Witt Jr./SS

Plus: Cole Ragans/LHS, Maikel Garcia/3B

Solid: Michael Wacha/RHS, Noah Cameron/LHS, Seth Lugo/RHS, Vinnie Pasquantino/1B, Jac Caglianone/RF, Carter Jensen/C, Carlos Estevez/RHR, Kyle Isbel/CF, Lucas Erceg/RHR, Ryan Bergert/RHS, Stephen Kolek/RHS, Ben Kudrna/RHS, Luinder Avila/RHS, Alec Marsh/RHS

Maikel Garcia’s emergence helps cover for Ragans’ injury while Witt continues to be one of the best players in the majors. You could argue to move Wacha up a tier, but I’m projecting over the next two seasons primarily, so I rounded down a bit. Cameron’s emergence helps with Caglianone’s surface-stat problems, but his underlying numbers are about what was expected, so I’m continuing to buy stock in him.

Similar to the Pirates below, this is a team without a ton of payroll that is carried mostly by a star player. But the Royals’ supporting cast is a bit better (for now) and their star is a position player rather than a pitcher — and they’ve been willing to open their wallets a bit in free agency to surround their star with talent.


20. Athletics

2024 rank: 26
2023 rank: 29
2022 rank: 26

Elite: None

Plus: Nick Kurtz/1B, Brent Rooker/DH, Tyler Soderstrom/LF, Jacob Wilson/SS

Solid: Shea Langeliers/C, Lawrence Butler/RF, Luis Severino/RHS, Jeffrey Springs/LHS, J.T. Ginn/RHS, Gage Jump/LHS, Luis Morales/RHS, Denzel Clarke/CF, Leo De Vries/SS, Darell Hernaiz/SS, Jacob Lopez/LHS, Zack Gelof/2B, Jack Perkins/RHS, Jamie Arnold/LHS, Max Muncy/SS, Colby Thomas/RF, Tommy White/3B, Mason Barnett/RHS, Gunnar Hoglund/RHS, Braden Nett/RHS

The A’s record hasn’t been great this year, but development-wise, they’ve taken a step forward.

Kurtz has gone from controversial early-first-round pick last summer to potential star by this summer, Rooker has performed despite being a primary DH in his 30s, my longtime prospect favorite Soderstrom has come back to life and Wilson continues to defy the odds by performing despite little raw power.

Langeliers and Butler could jump a tier by next year’s rankings, and De Vries could be a franchise cornerstone. And there’s probably an impact arm and a solid third/fourth starter among Ginn, Jump, Morales and Arnold.

There are some signs that with a strong winter and continued progression, this team could be competitive in 2026.


2024 rank: 21
2023 rank: 17
2022 rank: 22

Elite: Paul Skenes/RHS

Plus: Oneil Cruz/CF, Konnor Griffin/SS

Solid: Bubba Chandler/RHS, Mitch Keller/RHS, Bryan Reynolds/RF, Johan Oviedo/RHS, Spencer Horwitz/1B, Jared Triolo/SS, Jared Jones/RHS, Braxton Ashcraft/RHS, Mike Burrows/RHS, Termarr Johnson/2B, Hunter Barco/LHS, Isaac Mattson/RHR, Nick Gonzales/2B, Rafael Flores/C, Joey Bart/C, Henry Davis/C, Nick Yorke/2B

Skenes and Griffin are recent first-round selections who look to be home run picks. Cruz and Chandler look like solid players, and the rest is a nice group of players but doesn’t have much star potential.

Combine that with the lack of payroll and the Pirates will need to get creative to add to the clearly strong four-player core, or get very efficient at filling out the rest of the roster, similar to the Tigers.


2024 rank: 18
2023 rank: 25
2022 rank: 25

Elite: None

Plus: Riley Greene/LF, Kevin McGonigle/SS, Dillon Dingler/C

Solid: Max Clark/CF, Will Vest/RHR, Troy Melton/RHS, Parker Meadows/CF, Spencer Torkelson/1B, Colt Keith/2B, Josue Briceno/C, Zach McKinstry/3B, Kerry Carpenter/RF, Reese Olson/RHS, Jackson Jobe/RHS, Thayron Liranzo/C, Max Anderson/2B, Javier Baez/SS, Wenceel Perez/RF, Matt Vierling/CF, Jace Jung/3B, Sawyer Gipson-Long/RHS

McGonigle is one of the few true prospects listed in the plus tier because he’ll likely be big league-ready at some point next year, is putting up absurd surface numbers at every level, and is in the top five prospects while playing a premium position.

Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Gleyber Torres and all of the players Detroit acquired at the deadline aren’t eligible for this exercise, so it’s mostly just the homegrown young players. But by this time next year, there might be three to five of those players in the plus or elite category, so I see solid win-loss records and a better showing in next year’s ranking.


2024 rank: 24

2023 rank: 14

2022 rank: 5

Elite: Vladimir Guerrero Jr./1B

Plus: Alejandro Kirk/C

Solid: Andres Gimenez/2B, Trey Yesavage/RHS, Addison Barger/3B, Jose Berrios/RHS, Anthony Santander/RF, Arjun Nimmala/SS, Ricky Tiedemann/LHS, Ernie Clement/3B, Jeff Hoffman/RHR, Nathan Lukes/RF, Myles Straw/CF, Jake Bloss/RHS, Brendon Little/LHR, Davis Schneider/LF, Alek Manoah/RHS, Eric Lauer/LHS

Lots of notable players are not eligible for this list: George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho. So, this doesn’t represent what the team will be this season and next, but reflects more what’s nailed down for that next version of the team. There’s solid depth, but there’s some reliance on Yesavage, Tiedemann and Nimmala turning into standout players, particularly if some of the aforementioned players aren’t re-signed and Santander can’t get back on the right track.


2024 rank: 23
2023 rank: 8
2022 rank: 4

Elite: None

Plus: Masyn Winn/SS, Sonny Gray/RHS

Solid: JJ Wetherholt/SS, Brendan Donovan/2B, Willson Contreras/1B, Ivan Herrera/C, Lars Nootbaar/LF, Liam Doyle/LHS, Tink Hence/RHS, Victor Scott/CF, Leonardo Bernal/C, Alec Burleson/RF, Matthew Liberatore/LHS, Michael McGreevy/RHS, Nolan Gorman/3B, Jesus Baez/3B, Quinn Mathews/LHS, Nolan Arenado/3B, Joshua Baez/RF, Blaze Jordan/3B, Pedro Pages/C, Jimmy Crooks/C, Cooper Hjerpe/LHS, Matt Svanson/RHR

All of the key players are eligible for this exercise, thanks, in large part, to the deadline trades that helped to beef up the farm system. There are a few catchers (not including the top prospect in the system, Rainiel Rodriguez, who is in Low-A) and starting pitchers (including some who just missed), though there isn’t a ton of frontline potential.

Gray’s mutual option for 2027 is priced just right to get him on here, but it was a close call. Wetherholt and Doyle clicking would be huge for the organization because there’s a ton of upper-minors prospects and somewhat unproven young big leaguers, to the point where the Cardinals could run out of room for all of them to play — but they also need some stars to emerge to build around.


2024 rank: 19
2023 rank: 7
2022 rank: 11

Elite: None

Plus: Junior Caminero/3B

Solid: Yandy Diaz/1B, Ryan Pepiot/RHS, Shane Baz/RHS, Carson Williams/SS, Jonathan Aranda/1B, Josh Lowe/RF, Ian Seymour/LHS, Griffin Jax/RHR, Chandler Simpson/CF, Jake Mangum/LF, Hunter Feduccia/C, Garrett Cleavinger/LHR, Shane McClanahan/LHS, Xavier Isaac/1B, Aidan Smith/CF, Brody Hopkins/RHS, Jonny DeLuca/CF, Yoniel Curet/RHS, Joe Boyle/RHS

Only a few big league players don’t qualify for this list, but some higher upside prospects don’t qualify because they’re too far from contributing in the majors. The middle tiers of the minor leagues are down a bit, as most of the best young talent in the organization is in Low-A or lower or in the big leagues.

I could see the Rays making a lot of trades this offseason because they don’t have much money coming off the books or players leaving via free agency, but they also don’t have many standout players, aside from Caminero (who may be in the elite tier by the middle of next year). This list isn’t deceptive like it is for some contending teams. It reflects a team that’s around .500. There’s a lot of depth of interesting talent in the upper minors and in the big leagues, as is usual for the Rays, so making trades is more sensible to help the team be more competitive while it waits to see if the lower minors can deliver a few Top 100-caliber prospects and maybe a star.


2024 rank: 25
2023 rank: 28
2022 rank: 29

Elite: None

Plus: James Wood/LF, CJ Abrams/SS, MacKenzie Gore/LHS

Solid: Luis Garcia Jr./2B, Dylan Crews/CF, Travis Sykora/RHS, Jarlin Susana/RHS, Brady House/3B, Jacob Young/CF, DJ Herz/LHS, Cade Cavalli/RHS, Jose Ferrer/RHR, Daylen Lile/RF, Drew Millas/C, Mitchell Parker/LHS, Brad Lord/RHS

Wood, Abrams and Gore are success stories who continue to progress and are the faces of the franchise at this point. Garcia’s underlying stats are still solid, so you can mostly disregard his down season. Crews is a little more worrisome, but he also has been unlucky on ball-in-play luck. Sykora can’t stay healthy, and House has had some big league struggles, but Susana might be turning the corner in terms of throwing strikes and has had ace potential.

No. 1 pick SS Eli Willits and other players taken in the past two drafts are a bit too far away to include here, but there are a few candidates to make this list next year.


2024 rank: 27
2023 rank: 23
2022 rank: 18

Elite: None

Plus: Kyle Stowers/LF

Solid: Eury Perez/RHS, Sandy Alcantara/RHS, Edward Cabrera/RHS, Thomas White/LHS, Jakob Marsee/CF, Robby Snelling/LHS, Otto Lopez/SS, Ryan Weathers/LHS, Agustin Ramirez/C, Xavier Edwards/2B, Joe Mack/C, Connor Norby/3B, Janson Junk/RHS, Aiva Arquette/SS, Maximo Acosta/SS, Ronny Henriquez/RHR, Liam Hicks/C, Max Meyer/RHS, Dax Fulton/LHS

Every player in the organization qualifies because they’re all under contractual control for at least two more seasons after this one. The problem is that only Stowers has broken through into the upper tiers, but a few young players could make that jump next season — mostly at the top of the solid tier and a very pitching-heavy group. Miami’s rebuild has turned around and is about to add more propulsion.


2024 rank: 28
2023 rank: 27
2022 rank: 21

Elite: None

Plus: Zach Neto/SS, Jose Soriano/RHS

Solid: Mike Trout/RF, Yusei Kikuchi/LHS, Jo Adell/CF, Reid Detmers/LHR, Nolan Schanuel/1B, Christian Moore/2B, Logan O’Hoppe/C, Tyler Bremner/RHS, George Klassen/RHS, Kyren Paris/SS, Caden Dana/RHS, Nelson Rada/CF, Denzer Guzman/SS

Soriano, Detmers, Bremner, Klassen, and Dana are five solid pitchers to build around, along with veteran Kikuchi, but it’s unlikely all of them pitch on the same staff.

Trout unfortunately has to be moved down a tier as he has posted 2.2 WAR over the past two seasons combined. Taylor Ward’s under contract through next year so he falls off the list. Neto is a clear keeper, and Adell is starting to put it together, but there aren’t a ton of position players right behind them in the system, so the Angels need to find more impact players without clear avenues to do so.


2024 rank: 29
2023 rank: 15
2022 rank: 18

Elite: None

Plus: None

Solid: Colson Montgomery/SS, Kyle Teel/C, Shane Smith/RHS, Grant Taylor/RHR, Noah Schultz/LHS, Hagen Smith/LHS, Chase Meidroth/SS, Edgar Quero/C, Lenyn Sosa/2B, Braden Montgomery/RF, Miguel Vargas/3B, Drew Thorpe/RHS, Jordan Leasure/RHR, Peyton Pallette/RHS, Tanner McDougal/RHS

Montgomery started the season ice cold (.626 OPS through 48 games in Triple-A) but then caught fire in the big leagues, hitting 16 homers in 49 games. He and Teel are the clear best long-term players of this core, with a lot of questions below them.

Luis Robert Jr. isn’t listed because it’s unlikely that both of his club options get picked up, and the two top pitching prospects (Schultz and Hagen Smith) had trouble throwing strikes this year. Shane Smith was a revelation, and Taylor is a potential long-term closer, but this organization needs some stars and they haven’t shown up.


2024 rank: 30
2023 rank: 30
2022 rank: 30

Elite: None

Plus: None

Solid: Ezequiel Tovar/SS, Brenton Doyle/CF, Hunter Goodman/C, Chase Dollander/RHS, Kyle Karros/3B, Charlie Condon/3B, Jordan Beck/LF, Jimmy Herget/RHR, Juan Mejia/RHR, Roc Riggio/2B, Jaden Hill/RHR, Seth Halvorsen/RHR, Ryan Feltner/RHS, Yanquiel Fernandez/RF, Brody Brecht/RHS, McCade Brown/RHS, Victor Vodnik/RHR, Jared Thomas/CF, Sterlin Thompson/LF, Griffin Herring/LHS

The tradition continues. It’s not like the amateur scouting staffs aren’t finding good players. I continue to have no faith and very little evidence that the development and big league team-building decision-makers know how to create value where it doesn’t exist.

I like some of the players they acquired at the deadline when they were finally as active as they should’ve been, but all four of the highest-paid players (Kris Bryant, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez) are in their 30s and either weren’t good enough or don’t have enough contractual control to be listed above.

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 2

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 2

Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”

That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.

“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”

Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.

Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.

Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.

Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.

Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.


Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.

Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.

Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.


Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.

Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.

Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.


Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.

Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.

Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.


Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.

Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.

Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.

Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.

Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).

Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.

Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.

Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.


Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.

Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.

Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.

Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.

Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.


Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.

Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.


Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.

Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.

Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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How big wins by Oregon, Oklahoma and South Florida shuffle the bowl picture

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How big wins by Oregon, Oklahoma and South Florida shuffle the bowl picture

While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.

The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.

As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas

Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.

The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.

Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.

Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.

South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.


CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.

Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.

I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.

Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC

Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State

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Illini, Noles crack AP top 10; USF enters at No. 18

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Illini, Noles crack AP top 10; USF enters at No. 18

Ohio State, Penn State and LSU remained the top three teams in The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll Sunday, while Oregon is back in the top five and South Florida is ranked for the first time in seven years.

There was some movement inside the top 10, but the biggest changes came from Nos. 11 to 25.

Ohio State, whose 70-0 win over Grambling was among a bevy of weekend blowouts, received 57 of the 65 first-place votes from the media panel. Penn State got five first-place votes, and LSU got two.

No. 4 Oregon, which thrashed Oklahoma State, received the other first place-vote and flip-flopped with Georgia. The Bulldogs’ uninspired win over FCS foe Austin Peay caused them to slip to No. 6 behind Miami.

Texas, Notre Dame, Illinois and Florida State round out the top 10, with the latter two teams in the top 10 for the first time this season.

Illinois has its first top-10 ranking since it was No. 7 in December 2001. Florida State, meanwhile, climbed four spots to its highest ranking since it was No. 10 in the 2024 preseason poll.

Clemson, which trailed Troy 16-0 midway through the second quarter before winning 27-16, slipped from No. 8 to No. 12.

Oklahoma earned a five-rung promotion to No. 13, its highest ranking in two years, after its win over Michigan. The Wolverines dropped to No. 23. Tennessee jumped seven spots to No. 15, and No. 16 Texas A&M and No. 17 Ole Miss each moved up three.

The biggest upward mover was No. 18 South Florida, which was eight spots out of the Top 25 last week. The Bulls pulled the upset of the day with their 18-16 win over then-No. 13 Florida. That followed their 34-7 home win over then-No. 25 Boise State.

The Bulls’ ascent under third-year coach Alex Golesh is more of a revival than a breakthrough. They have their first ranking since 2018 under Charlie Strong. Jim Leavitt had the 2008 team as high as No. 10, and his 2007 team spent three straight weeks in the top 10 and was No. 2 after a 6-0 start.

No. 24 Auburn and No. 25 Missouri cracked the rankings along with USF.

Auburn followed a two-touchdown win at Baylor with an easy victory over Ball State and is in the Top 25 for the first time under third-year coach Hugh Freeze.

Until Sunday, No. 19 Alabama and Auburn had not appeared in the Top 25 at the same time since November 2021.

Missouri, which appeared in all but two polls last season, is back in after a win over Border War rival Kansas.

Arizona State, which was ranked 12th, Florida (13th) and SMU (17th) all tumbled out of the Top 25.

The Sun Devils erased a 17-point deficit and led in the final minute before losing at Mississippi State. Florida’s loss put heat back on coach Billy Napier. SMU also blew a lead in the last minute and lost to Baylor in two overtimes.

The 16-team SEC is the first league to have 11 teams in the Top 25.

CONFERENCE CALL

SEC: 11 teams (Nos. 3, 6, 7, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 19, 24, 25)
Big Ten: 6 (Nos. 1, 2, 4, 9, 22, 23)
ACC: 3 (Nos. 5, 10, 12)
Big 12: 3 (Nos. 14, 20, 21)
American: 1 (No. 18)
Independent: 1 (No. 8)

RANKED VS. RANKED

No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami: Bulls will try to become the fifth team, and first since Miami in 1987, to open a season with three wins over ranked opponents.

No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee: First big test for Volunteers QB Joey Aguilar. Bulldogs go for ninth straight win in the series.

No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame: Irish out to avoid second 0-2 start in four years. Jeremiyah Love scored late tiebreaking touchdown for Notre Dame in last year’s season-opening meeting in College Station.

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