What’s driven UK’s astounding immigration levels – including some unprecedented highs
One of the great tragedies of the way immigration policy has been debated in this country for years, if not decades, is that the conversation is mostly voiced in emotive rather than rational terms.
Those who air fears about the flows of foreign-born people into the UK are dismissed as bigots (most famously by Gordon Brown). Those who argue that immigrants are good for the economy are dismissed as being deluded or blind to a mounting crisis.
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So what’s actually going on? Well, let’s take a deep breath, try if we can to ignore all the emotions, and focus instead on the numbers. What do those numbers tell us?
Highest net migration in British history
Well, the big picture is… big. The total flows of migrants coming into the country in recent years have been nothing short of astounding. While the figures have plateaued in the past 18 months or so, as of late 2023, immigration (which is to say, people coming to live here) was running at roughly 1.3 million people a year. Subtract those emigrating in that period (roughly 400,000), and that leaves you with net migration of nearly 900,000 people.
This is such a large number it’s actually quite hard to get your head around it, but here’s one way. As a percentage of the population (it comes out at about 1.25%), this is the highest net migration this country has ever experienced, since roughly comparable records began hundreds of years ago. Indeed, I cannot find another similar episode running back to the reign of Henry VIII.
A recent anti-immigration protest in Bristol. Pic: PA
How did we get here?
It wasn’t all that long ago that David Cameron was promising to reduce net migration to the “tens of thousands” each year. So how did we get to a place where net migration was close to running into seven figures?
In large part, the answer comes back to the introduction of the new post-Brexit migration rules implemented under Boris Johnson’s government. Among these reforms were measures making it comparatively easier for non-EU nationals to get visas. There were also, perhaps even more importantly, new student visa rules making it easier to come and study in this country.
Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit migration policy brought huge numbers of people to the UK. Pic: Reuters
Students and government policy
The upshot is that numbers of students from countries around the world (but mostly outside the EU, led by India, China, Nigeria, and Pakistan) flowed into this country. The extent to which these visas were really quasi-working visas, enabling young workers to come into this country to work in the gig economy, is something economists and officials are still picking over even now. But what is clear is that there is nothing normal about this influx.
It’s perhaps worth underlining at this stage that this immigration – the record flows, greater than anything we’ve seen since at least Henry VIII – is nearly all legal. These are people coming into the country not illegally or on small boats or via the asylum system, but having been issued with visas by the Home Office. This was a direct result of government policy (as well as the economic incentives of coming to a country like the UK). But that raises another question: how much of this was small boats?
After all, the vast majority of coverage in papers and television news in recent weeks has fixated on the small boats. So how much of that total do they account for? In short, just under 5% of the total.
None of this is to say small boats aren’t a very big issue for the UK. But, surprising as this might sound, given how many column inches are devoted to them, they are absolutely dwarfed by the legal flows.
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Labour’s new hard stance on migration
High legal migration – but small boats still at record levels
And while the flows of legal immigration to Britain (and, for that matter, student immigration) are among the highest in the developed world, flows of asylum seekers are considerably lower than in most other countries. Britain may rank number one in the OECD on students and number two on overall immigration, but it only saw the eighth-biggest flows of asylum seekers in the most recent year for which we have data (2023).
Of the total flows into the UK in the most recent time period, small boat arrivals accounted for a mere 4.8%. The vast majority is legal migration.
But that being said, the totals coming in on small boats and into the asylum system are nonetheless at unprecedented highs. Moreover, in recent years, asylum seekers have been less likely to be removed from the country. A growing proportion have been bailed, pending their cases, with the upshot that right now the total number of asylum seekers around the UK is close to 125,000 – about the size of Cambridge.
All of which is to say, both of the following statements are true: Firstly, small boats are a tiny fraction of overall immigration, and secondly, Small boat numbers are higher than ever before and are contributing to unprecedented levels of asylum seekers in the UK.
Britain is far from the only country to face these challenges. The question now is whether it can succeed in bringing down the flows and the backlog in the coming years.
Politics
Labour deputy leadership candidate accuses opponent’s team of ‘throwing mud’ and briefing against her
Lucy Powell has accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race in a special episode of Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.
With just days to go until the race is decided, Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby spoke to the two leadership rivals about allegations of leaks, questions of party unity and their political vision.
Ms Powell told Electoral Dysfunction that through the course of the contest, she had “never leaked or briefed”.
But she said of negative stories about her in the media: “I think some of these things have also come from my opponent’s team as well. And I think they need calling out.
“We are two strong women standing in this contest. We’ve both got different things to bring to the job. I’m not going to get into the business of smearing and briefing against Bridget.
“Having us airing our dirty washing, throwing mud – both in this campaign or indeed after this if I get elected as deputy leader – that is not the game that I’m in.”
Ms Powell was responding to a “Labour source” who told the New Statesman last week: “Lucy was sacked from cabinet because she couldn’t be trusted not to brief or leak.”
Ms Powell said she had spoken directly to Ms Phillipson about allegations of briefings “a little bit”.
Bridget Phillipson (l) and Lucy Powell (r) spoke to Sky News’ Beth Rigby in a special Electoral Dysfunction double-header. Pics: Reuters
Phillipson denies leaks
But asked separately if her team had briefed against Ms Powell, Ms Phillipson told Rigby: “Not to my knowledge.”
And Ms Phillipson said she had not spoken “directly” to her opponent about the claims of negative briefings, despite Ms Powell saying the pair had talked about it.
“I don’t know if there’s been any discussion between the teams,” she added.
On the race itself, the education secretary said it would be “destabilising” if Ms Powell is elected, as she is no longer in the cabinet.
“I think there is a risk that comes of airing too much disagreement in public at a time when we need to focus on taking the fight to our opponents.
“I know Lucy would reject that, but I think that is for me a key choice that members are facing.”
She added: “It’s about the principle of having that rule outside of government that risks being the problem. I think I’ll be able to get more done in government.”
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Insider vs outsider
But Ms Powell, who was recently sacked by Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the Commons, said she could “provide a stronger, more independent voice”.
“The party is withering on the vine at the same time, and people have got big jobs in government to do.
“Politics is moving really, really fast. Government is very, very slow. And I think having a full-time political deputy leader right now is the political injection we need.”
The result of the contest will be announced on Saturday 25 October.
The deputy leader has the potential to be a powerful and influential figure as the link between members and the parliamentary Labour Party, and will have a key role in election campaigns. They can’t be sacked by Sir Keir as they have their own mandate.
The contest was triggered by the resignation of Angela Rayner following a row over her tax affairs. She was also the deputy prime minister but this position was filled by David Lammy in a wider cabinet reshuffle.
HMRC sent nearly 65,000 warning letters to crypto investors last year, more than double the previous year, as the UK steps up efforts to trace undeclared capital gains.
Politics
‘Additional resources’ offered by govt to reverse ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans at Villa game
The government says it is exploring what “additional resources and support are required” to allow “all fans” to attend Maccabi Tel Aviv’s match against Aston Villa next month.
Supporters of the Israeli side have been told they are not allowed to attend November’s game in Birmingham after a decision by Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG).
The group – made up of local stakeholders, including representatives from the council, police and event organisers – said the decision was due to a high risk of violence based on “current intelligence and previous incidents”.
Politics live: MPs react to Maccabi Tel Aviv fan ban
The decision has been criticised across the political spectrum, with Sir Keir Starmer describing it as a “wrong decision” while Tory opposition leader Kemi Badenoch called it a “national disgrace”.
In a statement on Friday night, a government spokesperson said: “No one should be stopped from watching a football game simply because of who they are.
“The government is working with policing and other partners to do everything in our power to ensure this game can safely go ahead, with all fans present.
“We are exploring what additional resources and support are required so all fans can attend.”
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Birmingham residents react to the Maccabi fan ban
Meanwhile, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said: “Antisemitism is a stain on our society that shames us all. Every football fan, whoever they are, should be able to watch their team in safety.
“This government is doing everything in our power to ensure all fans can safely attend the game.”
The prime minister’s spokesman previously said Sir Keir would “do everything in his power to give Jewish communities the security they deserve”.
Read more:
Why are fans banned – and has this happened before?
How this raises questions about one of the UK’s biggest cities
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Badenoch: Fan ban a ‘national disgrace’
The Home Office offered to provide more police for the event, while Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Communities Secretary Steve Reed also intervened.
However, senior police insisted the ban was necessary and cited clashes and hate crime offences committed when the Israeli team travelled to Amsterdam to play Ajax last year.
The Aston Villa vs Maccabi Tel Aviv match – set to take place on Thursday 6 November – is a Europa League fixture.
UEFA, which runs the tournament, had urged UK authorities to ensure away fans could attend.
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