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It’s official. Three teams have clinched playoff spots, meaning there are nine left to fill with 11 days remaining in the 2025 regular season.

For the second consecutive year, the Brewers clinched the season’s first postseason spot. They were followed by the Phillies, who first clinched a berth and won the National League East title for the second straight year the following night, and then the Cubs.

Now, we wait to see who’s next.

It’s just a matter of time before additional clubs lock up berths — such as the Blue Jays and Dodgers — but others still have a lot to play for. In the past week, we’ve seen the Mariners go on a run that has vaulted them back into first place in the division, while the Mets suffered a losing streak that almost dropped them out of the playoff picture entirely.

Some of these playoff races will go down to the final days of the season. Get ready for some exciting baseball!

Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 24 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings


Record: 93-59
Previous ranking: 1

The Brewers were the first team to clinch a postseason slot this season, but they have no time to rest on their laurels. Topping the remaining to-do list is the quest to hold off the Phillies for the NL’s top seed, which could be key if the teams meet in the NLCS given how dominant they’ve both been at home. If Milwaukee does that, it’ll also tick off its other major remaining items: breaking the franchise mark for wins in a season (96, set in 2011 and tied in 2018) and clinching the NL Central title over the pesky Cubs. — Doolittle


Record: 91-62
Previous ranking: 2

The Phillies clinched their second straight NL East title with a 10-inning win at Dodger Stadium on Monday. Kyle Schwarber hit his 53rd home run and Harrison Bader stole third base in the 10th, setting up the go-ahead sacrifice fly. That led to a raucous postgame celebration. Bryce Harper drank apple juice while his teammates had some stronger refreshments. Then they rallied for another dramatic win on Tuesday as backup catcher Rafael Marchan hit a two-out, three-run home run in the ninth following an intentional walk to Bryson Stott. The Phillies look ready for October. — Schoenfield


Record: 89-63
Previous ranking: 5

Toronto’s chances of winning the American League East stand at an overwhelming 95.6%, per FanGraphs, leaving manager John Schneider to deliberate over how to arrange his playoff rotation. Kevin Gausman seems to be the most logical choice to start in Game 1, and after that, Schneider has a wealth of options: Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Eric Lauer and now rookie Trey Yesavage, who was dominant in his MLB debut on Monday. Other teams should be jealous of the Jays’ depth. — Olney


Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 3

It’s easy to focus on what Shohei Ohtani is doing in the regular season and what role he might fill in the playoffs. But the Dodgers have the serious business of winning the NL West again to still take care of. The stakes are huge. Barring collapses elsewhere in the circuit, the winner of the West is going to be a 3-seed and the second-place team is going to be No. 5. Thus the Dodgers will either get to host the struggling Mets (probably), or they’ll find themselves playing the first round at Wrigley Field against a hungry Cubs team that has been playing well. — Doolittle


Record: 88-64
Previous ranking: 7

The Cubs aren’t out of the NL Central race just yet, but even if that pursuit comes up short, they are in solid position to be the league’s top wild card — and secured a playoff berth Wednesday with a win over Pittsburgh. The offense has been ticking up a little over the past couple of weeks, though the improvement hasn’t included first-half standout Pete Crow-Armstrong. He has been better than he was in August, but given his .446 OPS that month, the bar was low. Overall, his second-half OPS sits at .625. When the Cubs were roiling the scoreboard earlier this season, it was PCA leading the charge. North Siders would feel a lot better about the coming postseason if he is able to heat up over the last few days of the season. — Doolittle


Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 4

The Tigers’ rotation struggles behind Tarik Skubal have been a little surprising, given the veterans on the roster. But that doesn’t mean manager A.J. Hinch will be without weapons in the playoffs. “You know how A.J. is — he’s going to mix and match from game to game,” said one evaluator. And the Tigers have developed or acquired a lot of bullpen options, including Troy Melton, Jose Urquidy (who pitched 1⅓ innings Sunday) and, they hope, Kyle Finnegan and Paul Sewald, who are working their way back from injury and are expected back soon. — Olney


Record: 85-67
Previous ranking: 6

Jose Caballero had started six consecutive games at shortstop for the Yankees before Anthony Volpe started Tuesday’s game, notching two hits. It appears there is effectively an open competition at the position: Whoever plays better will play. With Volpe eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and with prospect George Lombard climbing (and thriving) through the farm system, it’s unclear who the Yankees’ shortstop will be in 2026. — Olney


Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 12

You may have heard that Cal Raleigh is having quite the season. He hit his 55th and 56th home runs in the same game Tuesday, passing Mickey Mantle for the most home runs in a season by a switch-hitter and tying Ken Griffey Jr.’s club record with No. 56. Suddenly, Aaron Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs is back in play if Raleigh can mount a furious finish.

Oh, and the win in Kansas City, which has been a house of horrors for Seattle in recent seasons, was also the Mariners’ 10th in a row. Dominic Canzone went 5-for-5 with three home runs in the same game, becoming the fourth player in 2025 to reach those totals and just the 45th player to do it in the majors since 1901. (No player has done it twice.) The only other Mariner to do it was Mickey Brantley in 1987. (Mike Cameron didn’t have five hits in his four-homer game.) — Schoenfield


Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 9

Will the Padres’ vaunted bullpen hold up over the stretch run and into the playoffs? Their rotation has been hit or miss for a month now, which only increases the load for a stacked bullpen fortified by the trade deadline acquisition of Mason Miller. Miller has been phenomenal as a Padre and it’s a good thing, since Jason Adam went down with an injury, Jeremiah Estrada has had a rough month in the gopher ball department and Adrian Morejon has struggled in September. Can the unit that so many viewed as the Padres’ October trump card regain its menace? — Doolittle


Record: 83-69
Previous ranking: 8

When the Red Sox took the first three games of a four-game series against the Yankees in late August, New York manager Aaron Boone was asked how Boston had improved during the season. “Roman Anthony is pretty good,” he replied, noting the difference the lefty-hitting rookie made. Since Anthony has been out of the lineup with an oblique injury, Boston is now feeling his absence in a significant way. In 35 games before he got hurt, he had a .326 average, and the Red Sox were 22-13. Since his injury, the Red Sox have gone 5-7, averaging less than 4.0 runs per game. — Olney


Record: 84-69
Previous ranking: 10

Just when you thought the injury list couldn’t get any longer for the Astros, Yordan Alvarez sprained his ankle while scoring a run in Monday’s win over the Rangers and will miss significant time. Alvarez had returned three weeks ago after missing 100 games with a broken bone in his hand. Rookie Zach Cole, playing just his fourth MLB game, replaced Alvarez in the lineup and hit the go-ahead home run, then added an RBI single. The Astros beat the Rangers again Tuesday as they held on for a 6-5 win after leading 6-0. Houston’s crucial week of AL West action will continue when the Mariners come to town for the battle for first place. — Schoenfield


Record: 79-74
Previous ranking: 13

The Rangers got to within two games of first place in the division after winning the first two games against the Mets over the weekend to extend their winning streak to six in a row. It looked like the seventh consecutive win was in reach after the Rangers scored twice to force extra innings in Sunday’s game, but they couldn’t score in the top of the 10th and rookie Luis Curvelo served up the walk-off home run to Pete Alonso. Two losses to the Astros followed and the Rangers fell behind Cleveland in the wild-card standings. They might have to go 6-0 on this upcoming homestand against the Marlins and Twins to even have a chance at the postseason. — Schoenfield


Record: 78-74
Previous ranking: 11

The wild, topsy-turvy, frustrating, unpredictable year continues for the Mets as they desperately try to hang on to the final wild card. They lost eight in a row before Pete Alonso perhaps rescued the season with his 10th-inning walk-off home run to beat the Rangers on Sunday. An eight-run outburst against Padres starter Michael King followed in New York’s next game. If the Mets are to hang on, the rookie starting pitcher trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat will play a huge role. McLean continues to take over as the rotation ace while Sproat’s second career start was a beauty — six scoreless innings against the Rangers. — Schoenfield


Record: 80-71
Previous ranking: 15

You really can’t apply logic to what’s going on with the Guardians these days, but here’s what’s left on the table for them as they try to press Boston for the last wild-card berth in the AL: four games in a weekend series in Minnesota, including a doubleheader Saturday, followed by six home games next week against the Tigers and Rangers. Keep in mind that Detroit is likely to be focused on preparing its rotation for the postseason, so Cleveland won’t see a full dose of Tarik Skubal, in all likelihood. — Olney


Record: 77-76
Previous ranking: 19

Arizona’s playoff odds dropped precariously close to zero near the end of August. Given the Diamondbacks’ deadline-related activity, which included trading a corner infield combo (Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez) who combined for 47 homers and 146 RBIs before being dealt, that was no surprise. What’s happened since is Arizona has climbed back to the outer perimeter of the wild-card race. How? The sagging Mets, a red-hot offense and the amazing Geraldo Perdomo, for whom you can make a solid case as the NL’s No. 2 pick on the MVP ballot behind Shohei Ohtani. — Doolittle


Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 14

A tough series at Arizona probably sapped the Giants’ second-wind playoff chase, though all is not yet technically lost. But even if the postseason is out, Giants fans can focus on powerhouse Bryce Eldridge, summoned in mid-September for his big league debut. Eldridge began the season at Double-A and later moved up to Triple-A, where his results were a mixed bag. But the Giants had a need at first base and so took a chance that Eldridge — listed at 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds — is ready to make some McCovey Cove splashes at age 20. — Doolittle


Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 17

For now, Reds fans can continue to fixate on the wild-card standings. That’s more to the largesse of the Mets — who stubbornly refuse to put a hammerlock on the NL’s 6-seed — than anything Cincinnati has done. But the standings are what they are, and if the Reds catch fire, they might yet play some October baseball in Terry Francona’s first season managing the club. Their remaining schedule is tough, though: four home games against the Cubs, a possible breather against Pittsburgh, then three games in Milwaukee, owner of baseball’s best record. — Doolittle


Record: 76-76
Previous ranking: 16

Though their chances of making the playoffs are all but zero, the Royals are still playing meaningful baseball, which is surprising given the volume of injuries they have sustained with their rotation this year. But here they are. Meanwhile, Salvador Perez has reached a couple of major benchmarks, mashing his 300th career homer (he’s now at 302) and notching his 1,000th career RBI (now 1,008). As former teammate Eric Hosmer wrote on Twitter: “HOFer on and off [the field]. If you disagree meet me in the octagon.” — Olney


Record: 74-78
Previous ranking: 18

Barring a binge of wins down the stretch, the Rays are not going to reach the playoffs this year, but they have a superstar in the making in third baseman Junior Caminero, who will likely get some top-10 MVP votes. Since the All-Star break, Caminero has clubbed 21 homers with 48 RBIs and an 0.919 OPS in 55 games. — Olney


Record: 74-79
Previous ranking: 20

To be frank, the Cardinals haven’t given their fans many reasons to remain engaged until the end of the season. Their playoff chances are spent and, as they play out the string, the September call-ups don’t involve elite prospects. Maybe the focus will be on the rumor mill with an eye toward what will happen when this ho-hum campaign finally draws to a close. We know that baseball operations chief John Mozeliak will be handing the baton to Chaim Bloom. What other changes may be in store? — Doolittle


Record: 71-81
Previous ranking: 23

What more can Nick Kurtz do in his rookie season? How about blasting a titanic 493-foot grand slam Saturday that soared over the batter’s eye in center field at Sutter Health Park. It was the longest home run in the majors this season, the longest by an A’s hitter in the Statcast era (since 2015) and the longest grand slam in the Statcast era. Kurtz has slowed down a bit in September, but his OPS continues to hover just above 1.000, trailing only Aaron Judge and neck and neck with Shohei Ohtani. — Schoenfield


Record: 72-80
Previous ranking: 21

Baltimore was eliminated from playoff contention Tuesday, a quiet ending to a season that began with such lofty expectations, following seasons of 101 and 91 wins in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The Orioles’ greatest challenge this winter will be to build a pitching staff behind Trevor Rogers with the likes of Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and perhaps Grayson Rodriguez. They have a number of arbitration-eligible players, but not a single starter or reliever under contract for 2026, 2027 or beyond. Money talks. — Olney


Record: 70-83
Previous ranking: 22

Matt Olson homered in four straight games and has been red-hot in September, hitting well over .300 with an OPS over 1.200. He quietly has had a terrific season, leading the NL in doubles (tied with Freddie Freeman), and he has a chance to get to both 100 runs and 100 RBIs for the third time in his career. His 6.2 WAR is fourth among NL position players. No, it’s not 2023, when he led the NL in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage, but he has a good case as the best first baseman in the majors in 2025. — Schoenfield


Record: 72-80
Previous ranking: 24

One thing to look forward to in 2026: Sandy Alcantara has looked much more like the pitcher he was before his Tommy John surgery, with a 3.09 ERA over his past 10 starts and 2.48 over his past six. While his 5.53 season ERA is still high, his OPS allowed is 0.712, not much higher than it was in 2023 (0.693). No, those aren’t anything close to his Cy Young numbers of 2022, but hopefully he can provide a stabilizing force next season to a rotation that has struggled overall with injuries and inconsistency and ranks 28th in ERA. — Schoenfield


Record: 66-86
Previous ranking: 26

By season’s end, Byron Buxton is likely to surpass career highs in plate appearances, hits, home runs and RBIs, among other categories. For years, he has been viewed through the prism of potential — what he might accomplish if not for the many injuries he has incurred in his career. Buxton has mostly stayed on the field this year and has likely set himself up for some top-10 votes on the AL MVP ballot. — Olney


Record: 69-83
Previous ranking: 25

The Angels’ woes continue as Seattle’s four-game sweep put them into last place behind the A’s. While they won’t reach last year’s franchise record 99 losses, they’ve locked in a 10th straight losing season. On the bright side, Jo Adell continues to mash home runs and is up to 36 on the season, although his overall value remains just 1.5 WAR due to a low OBP and subpar defensive metrics. (It hasn’t helped that the Angels have played him regularly in center field, a position he shouldn’t be playing.) Still, it’s been a nice season for the former top prospect, who entered 2025 with a career OPS+ of 79 spread across five seasons. — Schoenfield


Record: 65-88
Previous ranking: 27

Can Paul Skenes get his ERA back under 2.00 before the end of the season? His last outing (three runs and seven hits allowed over 3⅔ innings) was his poorest of the season, raising his ERA to 2.03. Pirates manager Don Kelly said that the outing would be Skenes’ last home start, and it’s up in the air whether he’ll get one or two more turns since Kelly has been using a six-man rotation. Let’s hope it’s two because Skenes Day is really all Pirates fans have to look forward to at this point. If he gets back under 2.00, he would become just the fifth pitcher to finish with a 1-something ERA over at least 100 innings in each of his first two seasons. — Doolittle


Record: 57-96
Previous ranking: 29

It’s possible — but unlikely — that the White Sox will avoid 100 losses; they would have to win six of their final 10 games in order to make that happen. Either way, it’s been a season of laying foundational pieces, none more important than shortstop Colson Montgomery, who hit 18 homers in his first 61 games in the majors (and counting). One of the challenges for the 23-year-old lefty-hitting shortstop is going to be performing better against left-handed pitching — he’s 11-for-62 (.177) against lefties with four walks. — Olney


Record: 62-91
Previous ranking: 28

The Nationals are going to need a complete overhaul in the offseason as they inch closer to 100 losses. Even James Wood and MacKenzie Gore have struggled in the second half. With 209 strikeouts, Wood has a shot to break Mark Reynolds’ MLB record of 223 set in 2009. The rotation ERA has increased from 4.77 in the first half to 5.92 in the second as Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have seen their season ERAs creep closer to 6.00. Parker has an 8.26 ERA since the beginning of August and has allowed at least one home run in nine consecutive starts. Irvin has a 7.78 ERA since late June. They shouldn’t be in the rotation, but the Nationals don’t have any other options. — Schoenfield


Record: 41-111
Previous ranking: 30

What should Rockies fans watch the rest of the way? The one-word answer: Broncos. But that’s too easy. So here’s this: One thing that is remarkable about this team is that it has drawn nearly 30,000 fans per game this season. That works out to around 55,000 per win in the overall standings. During their first two seasons in MLB, playing at Mile High Stadium, the expansion Rockies drew around 63,000 fans per win. If the Rockies can lose out while drawing an average of 45,000 fans during their remaining home games, they can just eke over the 60,000 fans-per-win mark for the first time since those expansion years. Then we can all rejoice. — Doolittle

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Week 4 preview: Key matchups, quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype and more

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Week 4 preview: Key matchups, quarterbacks who aren't meeting their preseason hype and more

If there’s an overriding storyline through three weeks, it has been about the winners and losers of some big bets on quarterbacks.

Miami bet on Carson Beck reviving his NFL prospects after a down year at Georgia. So far, he has delivered, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass with eight total touchdowns, and the Canes are ranked in the top five.

Oklahoma wagered Brent Venables’ future on John Mateer, and the Washington State transfer has been electric, leading the Sooners past Michigan in a Week 2 showdown and earning Heisman front-runner status.

Auburn felt sure former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold still had plenty of untapped potential, and through three weeks, he has looked like the superstar he once was, getting the Tigers to 3-0.

Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon all bet on in-house QBs rather than dipping into the transfer portal, and all have been rewarded.

Florida State, Indiana and Tulane hit pay dirt in the portal.

That’s the good news.

On the flip side, so many quarterbacks who were expected to provide massive dividends — Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, DJ Lagway, Nico Iamaleava, LaNorris Sellers — have wavered between average or awful.

Week 4 offers some chances for redemption, with Lagway getting another big test against Miami, Klubnik hoping to right the ship against Syracuse and UNC‘s Gio Lopez going on the road against UCF in the Tar Heels’ first real test since a blowout loss to TCU.

Some of the nation’s most talented young players have a chance to break through, too. CJ Carr can earn win No. 1 against woeful Purdue. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, coming off a strong performance against Central Michigan, has a much bigger test against Nebraska. Ole Miss’ Austin Simmons hopes to return from injury in time to make his mark in a showdown with Tulane.

The story is just beginning to be written, so there’s plenty of time for Manning, Klubnik and other preseason darlings to find their footing. But it has been a cold September for some of the nation’s most renowned passers, and Week 4 could be another opportunity for others to grab their share of the spotlight. — David Hale

Jump to:
Auburn-Oklahoma | Utah-Texas Tech
Quarterbacks who are falling short
Breakout players | Quotes of the week

What do each of these teams need to do to win?

Auburn: The Tigers have to disrupt Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer and make him pay for running the ball, and they have the ingredients to do so. Auburn is tied for sixth nationally in sacks per game (3.67) and tied for 12th in tackles for loss per game (8.7). Although Keldric Faulk is the headliner, Arkansas State transfer Keyron Crawford has been the team’s most disruptive pass rusher so far with three sacks and a forced fumble. The defense and run game, which ranks 16th nationally at 240 yards per game, ideally must reduce the pressure on quarterback Jackson Arnold in his highly anticipated return to Oklahoma. Arnold is completing nearly 70% of his passes, running the ball effectively and limiting mistakes, but the more Auburn’s other playmakers can take off his plate, the better the chances for a key road win. — Adam Rittenberg

Oklahoma: Arnold started nine games for the Sooners last fall. If anyone knows his weak spots, it’s Oklahoma coach Brent Venables. As Adam points out, Arnold (eight turnovers in 2024) has played efficient, mistake-free football in his first three games at Auburn. A Sooners defense that’s creating pressures on 44.6% of its snaps this season — 10th nationally, per ESPN Research — is built to change that and make Arnold uncomfortable, although Oklahoma will be without 2024 sack leader R Mason Thomas for the first half Saturday following a Week 3 targeting ejection. Mateer will have his own work cut out for him against the Tigers’ defensive front, but he should be able to find holes in a secondary that ranks 85th in yards allowed per game (220.0). The difference, ultimately, could come on the ground where a still-figuring-out Oklahoma rushing attack meets Auburn’s 10th-ranked run defense (67.0 yards per game) on Saturday. Freshman Tory Blaylock (5.4 yards per carry) has been the Sooners’ most effective running back through three games. — Eli Lederman


How do each of these quarterbacks need to perform?

Utah: Through three games a year ago, Utah had gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives. This season, it has happened only three times in three games. The difference is Devon Dampier, who has looked as at ease running his brand of dual-threat football in a Power 4 backfield as he did a year ago at New Mexico. Dampier has racked up more than 800 yards of offense and accounted for eight touchdowns, and he has yet to turn the ball over. His skill set has made him particularly effective. He has already accumulated 80 yards on scramble plays, and three of his seven TD passes have come from outside the pocket. This will be his biggest test to date, but he’ll also be, by far, the biggest challenge for Texas Tech’s defense. — Hale

Texas Tech: Behren Morton hasn’t taken a snap after the third quarter across three straight 30-plus point victories to open the season. Still, Texas Tech’s senior quarterback enters Week 4 tied for No. 1 nationally in passing touchdowns (11) and ranks ninth in passing yards (923), leading the nation’s highest-scoring offense (58.0 PPG). Utah, with the nation’s 20th-ranked pass defense (134.0 yards per game), should present Morton with his toughest test yet in 2025. He’ll have to be accurate against an experienced Utes secondary, and Morton’s decision-making will be key, too, in the face of a Utah front seven that features the nation’s joint sack leader in John Henry Daley — five in three games — and blitzes on 42.6% of its snaps, the 10th-highest rate among FBS defenses, per ESPN Research. Most of all, Texas Tech will hope Morton’s experience (27 career starts) can keep its offense steady in the Red Raiders’ first visit to a notoriously hostile Rice-Eccles Stadium. — Eli Lederman


Three quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype

1. Arch Manning

Anyone can have a rough outing in a Week 1 matchup against the defending champs, and Manning looked fine a week later against San José State. So, nothing to worry about, right? Ah, not so fast. A dismal first half against UTEP ignited a full-on inferno of criticism of the preseason Heisman favorite, and for good reason. Manning is completing just 55% of his throws and has turned the ball over three times, and Texas has gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives so far. Add the sideline grimace that coach Steve Sarkisian chalked up to — well, we’re not quite sure — and it would be enough reason for concern even if Manning didn’t carry a legendary name and a ton of hype. That this all comes on the heels of such high expectations means Manning will be fighting critics for the foreseeable future.

2. Cade Klubnik

What’s wrong with Clemson‘s offense? The answers are everywhere, but none appear bigger than Klubnik, who has at times looked lost, frustrated or intimidated in the pocket. His 37.5 QBR through three games ranks 121st out of 136 FBS passers, and his miserable first-half performances — no passing touchdowns, two turnovers — have put Clemson in some early holes. Klubnik is completing less than 60% of his throws on the year, but the bigger issue is the number of open receivers he hasn’t even targeted in key moments. He has been sacked just three times this year, but he has gotten moved off his position too often, and abandoned ship even more frequently. So, what’s wrong with the Tigers? The better question is what’s wrong with the Tigers’ QB?

3. DJ Lagway

After last year’s hot finish, the assumption was that Lagway would take the next step in 2025 to becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Through three weeks, he’s nowhere close. Not only is Florida off to a 1-2 start, Lagway has been the primary culprit. He’s completing 71% of his throws, but nearly one-third of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage. He has done nothing to extend the field, attempting just seven throws of 20 yards or more. On those throws, he has one completion and two picks. Lagway’s six interceptions overall are tied for the second most nationally through three games. If Florida wants to turn things around amid a brutal schedule, it has to start with Lagway looking more like the player he appeared to be down the stretch in 2024. — Hale


Five early breakout players

Rueben Bain Jr., DL, Miami: The 6-foot-3, 275-pound pass rusher is performing at an All-America level so far this season with 15 stops, 11 pressures, 2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble through three games. Bain was a top-100 recruit and a Freshman All-American in 2023, so there’s nothing shocking about his rise, but he’s making the leap as a junior and proving he’s a no-doubt NFL draft first-round pick. As ESPN draft expert Jordan Reid put it, no other draft-eligible player in the sport is having a greater down-to-down impact than Bain.

Taylen Green, QB, Arkansas: Green is off to an incredible start to his second season under OC Bobby Petrino, leading the country in total offense with 866 passing yards, 307 rushing yards (most among all FBS QBs) and 13 total touchdowns. Last week against Ole Miss, he became the first QB in program history to surpass 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game. The Razorbacks came up short in their SEC opener but have seven more top-25 opponents on the schedule, which should give Green every opportunity to play his way into Heisman contention.

Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M: The Aggies faced Craver last year during his freshman season at Mississippi State and knew he could be a dangerous playmaker. He has been an absolute game changer for Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s passing game with an FBS-leading 443 receiving yards and four TDs on just 20 receptions. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound wideout isn’t flying under the national radar anymore after burning Notre Dame’s secondary for a career-best 207 yards on seven catches, and his 279 yards after catch are nearly 100 more than any other pass catcher in the country.

Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy had a prolific freshman season at UL Monroe and hasn’t slowed down one bit since making his move to the SEC. He’s now the second-leading rusher in the FBS with 462 yards and five TDs after a ridiculous 250-yard day against Louisiana last week. The sophomore has played in only 15 career games, yet he already has three 200-yard performances on his résumé, and he leads all FBS backs with 29 forced missed tackles, according to ESPN Research.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, Cal: The true freshman from Hawaii was a late riser in the recruiting rankings as a high school senior, and we’re quickly learning why he became so coveted. Sagapolutele signed with Oregon but flipped back to Cal in early January, believing he’d have a chance to start right away for the Golden Bears. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound lefty has flashed big-time arm talent and exciting potential with 780 passing yards and seven total TDs while leading a 3-0 start. He’s becoming must-see TV on a Cal squad that looks poised to exceed expectations. — Max Olson


Quotes of the Week

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney on speculation about his job security:
“Hey, listen, if Clemson’s tired of winning, they can send me on my way. But I’m gonna go somewhere else and coach. I ain’t going to the beach. Hell, I’m 55. I’ve got a long way to go. Y’all are gonna have to deal with me for a while.”

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on quarterback Arch Manning:
“Here’s a guy who’s had an awesome life, the way he’s grown up, the people he’s been surrounded by. I think you learn a lot about yourself through adversity and overcoming adversity. … When he gets on the other side of it, I think all of this is going to serve well not only for him, but for us as a team.”

LSU coach Brian Kelly:
“LSU won the football game, won the game. I don’t know what you want from me. What do you want? You want us to win 70-0 against Florida to keep you happy?”

Michigan fill-in coach Biff Poggi on Bryce Underwood:
“He might actually be Batman. We need to do a DNA test on him.”

Georgia Tech coach Brent Key addressing his team after beating Clemson:
“Enjoy the s— out of it, man. Guess what? Next week is going to be bigger.”

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Sources: ACC closing in on new schedule format

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Sources: ACC closing in on new schedule format

The ACC is closing in on a change to its scheduling format that will require all league teams to play at least 10 games against Power Four competition, though the number of intra-conference games played — eight or nine — remains a sticking point, according to multiple sources.

Athletics directors are scheduled to meet Monday in Charlotte to discuss the details of what will either be a move to a nine-game conference slate with one additional Power Four game required out of conference or an “8+2” model that would provide more flexibility to schools who already have an annual non-conference rival.

“The ACC committing to go to 10 Power Four games is a big step forward,” Clemson athletics director Graham Neff said. “It’s indicative of where college football is and leans into emphasizing the importance of strength of schedule and more Power Four matchups.”

Neff is among the handful of ADs concerned that a nine-game conference slate would be problematic in limiting schools’ ability to play marquee non-conference games, as Clemson did this season against LSU in Week 1.

The Tigers play South Carolina annually and, beginning in 2027, will also have a yearly game against Notre Dame.

A straw poll of 13 of the ACC’s 17 athletics directors showed nine supported or were amenable to the nine-game slate, while Clemson and Florida State are among the others with concerns about the impact on non-conference scheduling.

The SEC announced last month it would move from an eight-game to a nine-game conference slate — a decision that has spurred the ACC’s interest in adjusting its scheduling model, too.

Multiple sources said ACC commissioner Jim Phillips wants to see the conference play nine league games annually plus require each school to schedule one out-of-conference game against another Power Four school, essentially matching the SEC’s new strategy. ACC schools are already supposed to have at least one Power Four non-conference game each year, but that rule has not been enforced and several programs have avoided playing a more difficult schedule. Sources told ESPN that the current conversations have reached a consensus that 10 Power Four games must be an enforced minimum moving forward.

One administrator said it felt inevitable the league was going to go to nine league games. Duke coach Manny Diaz agreed.

“I think it’d be awfully strange to be the only conference not at nine conference games,” Diaz said. “Usually when you’re the only one doing something, it’s either really good or really bad. It just feels like you’d want continuity in what everybody does in college sports.”

The SEC’s move coincided with the College Football Playoff committee’s revised guidelines that emphasize strength of opponent. SEC schools are also expected to see an increase in revenue from its TV partner, ESPN, for adding the additional conference game.

ACC ADs were briefed on the various plans during a call Wednesday, though several said there remains little understanding of how potential changes would be accepted by ESPN or considered among the College Football Playoff committee. Indeed, as Radakovich noted, the ideal formula for a 12-team playoff vs. an expanded playoff might not be the same, but the ACC will need to decide its scheduling fate before knowing what the future playoff might look like.

“Hopefully Jim [Phillips] will give us some insight into that when we get together Monday, and help set the table that, hey, nine is going to be really important for us to keep a very good seat at the table as it relates to the other CFP commissioners and the Power 4 conferences,” Miami athletics director Dan Radakovich said. “It all depends on how big the CFP gets. That’s another driving factor we won’t know. We’re going to have to make this decision without that knowledge and try to project it the best way we can.”

No additional revenues are expected to come from ESPN if a change is made. The ACC also changed its revenue-distribution model starting in 2025, awarding a higher percentage of revenue to schools based on TV ratings.

“It’s important we continue to be strategic in providing value to our media partner, ESPN,” Neff said. “And with how the ACC has adapted our financial distribution model, that has direct school revenue implications unlike any other conference.”

The ACC has wrestled with how many league games it should play for more than a decade. In 2012, the ACC agreed to play nine league games, but decided to stay at eight after adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh and coming to a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame the following year. The intra-state nonconference rivalry games that Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville play annually against their SEC rivals have always been a sticking point in any of these discussions.

For those four specific teams, their rivalry games coupled with a nine-game conference slate would provide a full inventory of 10 Power Four matchups — with more in years in which those schools play Notre Dame as part of the league’s agreement that requires five games per year against the Irish. That leaves little room for marquee matchups like Clemson-LSU or Florida State-Alabama, two games that did monster ratings in Week 1 of this season, each drawing more than 10 million viewers.

But future marquee non-conference matchups like those could disappear once the ACC moves to a nine-game conference slate, Neff said, which could diminish the overall product and inhibit revenue opportunities, given the ACC’s new distribution model that provides more money to schools with better TV ratings.

Radakovich noted that games like this week’s showdown with Florida are unlikely to be played moving forward due to the constraints of a larger conference schedule, but he will continue to have conversations with Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin.

“It’s going to be a real tough sell because Florida has their nine SEC games and their rivalry game with FSU,” Radakovich said. “Scott and I will have some chats to see if it can happen but it’s going to be some tough sledding.”

Louisville athletics director Josh Heird said his school would still schedule top non-conference competition, even if that means an 11th Power Four game. The Cardinals currently have future games scheduled against Georgia in 2026 and 2027 and Texas A&M in 2028 and 2029.

“Play good teams,” Heird said. “We’ll play Kentucky every year, and we’ll have Notre Dame every once in a while. And we absolutely want to still play the home-and-homes with Georgia and Texas A&M. I think the kids want to play those games, too.”

Several ADs expressed concern, however, that series like Louisville’s with Georgia and Texas A&M would disappear regardless, as the SEC bows out of such matchups now that its teams will play nine league games. Others suggested the SEC and Big Ten — the two leagues with the most financial clout — could work together for non-conference scheduling, leaving the ACC and Big 12 with few options to fill out their schedules, particularly if the ACC has two Power Four non-conference games required.

“You’re not guaranteed 10,” one AD in favor of a 9+1 model said. “That’s the issue. Who’s to say the other Power four leagues want to schedule ACC schools?”

One alternative could be for ACC teams to schedule non-conference games against each other, as NC State and Virginia did in Week 2. Several ADs expressed skepticism about that plan, however, suggesting it would be extremely confusing for fans to understand which ACC vs. ACC matchups counted in the league standing and which did not.

Regardless, the ACC will have to figure out a way around a more basic problem of math. With 17 football-playing members, there’s no way for all schools to play nine conference games.

One initial plan involved games vs. Notre Dame — an ACC member in all sports except football — to count as conference games. Multiple ADs told ESPN that plan has been shelved for the time being, likely in favor of an imbalanced model in which at least one team will play just eight conference games while the rest play nine.

Monday’s meetings in Charlotte are expected to move the league closer to a final decision, but several sources said they did not expect an official vote to happen for a few weeks and were similarly dubious a change would take effect for the 2026 season.

“Let’s look to try to set our course,” Radakovich said. “The discussions will happen Monday but decisions will hopefully happen shortly thereafter. Hopefully we’ll come out of that with a consensus that leads the ACC to a final conclusion.”

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Witness in 2006 Miami murder case found alive

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Witness in 2006 Miami murder case found alive

Florida prosecutors have repeatedly told a court that a key witness in their murder case against a former Miami Hurricanes football player accused in the 2006 killing of teammate Bryan Pata was dead.

However, with the long-delayed murder trial of Rashaun Jones only weeks from its scheduled start in Miami, ESPN reporters knocked on an apartment door in Louisville, Kentucky, recently and found the witness, Paul Conner, alive.

Conner told ESPN that he wasn’t aware anyone from Miami was looking for him and said he rarely leaves his apartment.

Prosecutors told Florida 11th Circuit Court Judge Cristina Miranda as recently as July that Conner was dead. A spokesperson for the state attorney’s office, Ed Griffith, told ESPN on Thursday that police relied on a public database that “seemed to indicate” Conner was deceased and that police asked officers in Louisville to knock on Conner’s door. He offered no documents of such a visit nor details of when an officer visited or what happened.

Griffith also pressed a reporter for the address ESPN visited — the same address that was listed on the database report Griffith cited. The lead detective in the case, Juan Segovia, also texted an ESPN reporter asking for Conner’s contact information.

It’s unclear how the revelation about Conner will affect the trial, currently set to start Oct. 6. “Is there an impact of that on the case? I would have to say yes, potentially,” Griffith said.

Jones’ attorney, Sara Alvarez, said ESPN’s finding raises further questions about the state’s case.

“I’m not shocked, but appalled,” she said by telephone Thursday. “This is a bigger issue. This is just blatant lies. Bald-faced lies.

“It’s a shame and it’s disgusting that you would be willing to send a man to prison for the rest of his life without any evidence and then not be honest about what evidence exists and doesn’t exist.”

In a conversation with an ESPN reporter and in questioning by police, Jones has said he did not kill Pata. He has pleaded not guilty.

Conner, a retired University of Miami writing instructor, once lived in the apartment complex where Pata, a likely high draft pick in the 2007 NFL draft, was shot once in the head in November 2006.

Conner contacted police soon after the shooting, saying he heard a “pop” and saw someone “jogging” away from the parking lot entrance near where Pata was shot. Conner picked Jones out of a photo lineup.

Some 13 years later, Conner was reinterviewed in 2020 and again picked Jones out of a lineup, according to Jones’ arrest warrant. And Conner recounted what he saw at a 2022 bond hearing and in a 2023 deposition with attorneys.

Conner, now 81, told ESPN in his Aug. 25 interview that he now doesn’t recall what happened in Miami, and he seemed unfamiliar with his prior statements.

“I’m getting up in years,” he said. “My memory comes and goes. How long ago was this court case?”

With Jones’ trial date looming, Miami assistant state attorney Cristina Diamond told Miranda in a July 17 hearing that officials believed Conner to be dead after multiple failed attempts to contact him and a third-party commercial database indicating he was deceased. Miranda accepted the efforts to find Conner and ruled to allow his prior testimony from the hearing and deposition to be used at trial. Jones’ attorneys had initially objected on grounds of their inability to cross-examine his statements but conceded to accept the state’s evidence during that hearing.

ESPN’s interview with Conner was actually the second confirmation that he was alive. After a reporter contacted Conner’s last known employer, a former colleague asked Louisville police to conduct a welfare check. On July 22, Conner answered and confirmed his identity, according to police bodycam images reviewed by ESPN.

The Miami-Dade Police Department’s inability to find Conner is the latest in a long string of official missteps that have dramatically prolonged the case and frustrated Pata’s still-grieving family. According to information obtained by ESPN through a lawsuit against Miami-Dade Police and other interviews and records, Jones was among the first suspects considered by police, but they didn’t arrest him until 2021, nine months after ESPN first published its findings. Jones, now 40, has remained in custody for the past four years amid court delays and changes in attorneys on both sides.

In March 2022, Miranda agreed to grant Jones an $850,000 bail and allow him out, pending trial; however, Jones has not paid the amount — typically 10%, or $85,000 — needed for release, sources told ESPN.

That bond hearing included in-person testimony from Conner. Police had no eyewitness to the shooting, so Conner was a key element to a case that relies heavily on testimony from friends and teammates that Jones and Pata fought verbally and physically before the killing and that Jones possessed a gun similar to the one likely used to kill Pata (although police never recovered the weapon).

Conner told the court he was walking to the Colony Apartment Complex, where he and Pata lived, just before 7 p.m. on Nov. 7, 2006. He was near the parking lot entrance when he heard a “loud bang.” About 15 to 20 seconds later, Conner testified, he came “face-to-face” with a man walking at a brisk pace. “He smiled at me. He had a clean set of white teeth,” Conner said. “I described him to the forensic artist.”

On the photo lineup from which Conner picked out Jones’ photo, Conner had put his signature, date and the phrase “90 percent,” and a defense attorney asked him what that meant.

“One of the detectives asked me, how sure I was that that was the defendant. And I answered 90%,” he said.

The attorney later asks, “So, if I understand you correctly, there is a 10% error in your calculation of whether or not this person is the person that you saw on that night?” to which Conner responds, “It could have been.”

The defense attorney also noted that when Conner, several years later, picked Jones out of a lineup, Jones’ picture was in the same location on a page as the first time — the top middle photo.

In building their case against Jones, prosecutors also have cited Jones’ actions that night, including his failure to attend a mandatory team meeting called after the shooting and efforts to borrow money to leave the area. They also cite cell phone records they say contradict where Jones told officers he had been.

According to a state motion filed July 8 to request the use of Conner’s prior testimony, Det. Segovia said he had been in touch with the FBI and local police in Ohio, where Conner last worked at the University of Toledo. Segovia said he learned that Conner had moved to Kentucky.

Segovia then reached out to the Louisville Police Department, and according to the motion, “contact was made with the leasing office of that address, and they indicated that Mr. Conner did not live there.” Records show prosecutors were planning to subpoena a homicide detective from Louisville. No such officer has testified in the case.

ESPN requested records from the Louisville Police Department and connected with a spokesperson multiple times to inquire about any efforts made to locate Conner and any efforts by the officer who had been subpoenaed to testify. The spokesperson there said there were no records of any officer going to Conner’s address until the welfare check requested by the university colleague and ESPN’s inquiries. Conner said he has lived at his Louisville address for about a couple of years. A family member said they knew of no reason the leasing office would say Conner didn’t live there. A call to the leasing office was not returned.

ESPN made multiple requests to police and the Miami-Dade State Attorney for records of their efforts to find Conner. After initially claiming they had no documents, they eventually provided an email exchange in which Segovia wrote that he left 15 voicemail messages with Conner since May. Segovia added that he also sent emails to an address that officers had used with him previously. They also provided a copy of a June 6 letter addressed to Conner at his Louisville address that asked him to contact their office.

During ESPN’s visit, Conner allowed a reporter to review his phone. There were dozens of unanswered calls, and he appeared unfamiliar with how to check his voicemail. Several calls came from Miami-area phone numbers, including at least one that matched a phone number for Segovia. At a prior hearing, prosecutors said they had been aware Conner struggled with “technology” and had been difficult to reach.

Miami-Dade officials and the judge did not have a death certificate, mortuary record, obituary or any other official record of death, but instead relied on a commercial third-party information provider. Such companies often provide factual background information, but their terms of use disclose that information might contain errors, and they do not guarantee accuracy.

Conner’s cousin Steve Fahey, who said he was familiar with Conner’s prior role in the case, said he sees Conner frequently. He told ESPN in a phone interview that Conner has struggled lately with memory issues. He said Conner never mentioned anyone from Miami trying to reach him, and Fahey said no one from Miami tried to contact him, either.

Miami-Dade officials noted they spoke to a “distant cousin” of Conner’s who they said was unaware of Conner’s whereabouts, but they did not name the individual.

Alvarez, Jones’ attorney, said she should be able to question Conner in front of a jury about what she said were contradictions in details he gave police at various times. Whether Conner testifies, Alvarez said she plans to question Segovia about what she calls lies and misrepresentations of evidence.

Among other issues affecting the case recently, police told the court this summer that they had lost Pata’s student judicial records from the University of Miami. Pata had been involved in — although sometimes as just a bystander — a few misdemeanor-level altercations, according to the records, which ESPN acquired years ago through a public records request.

During a July 9 hearing, Jones’ attorney asked for a copy of an unredacted “lead sheet,” which was a four-page document with all the leads officers were looking into and a list of 39 individuals. The Miami-Dade Police Department used the lead sheet in the public records litigation with ESPN to assert the case was still active.

But during the hearing, the two main detectives who had worked the case said they didn’t know where the lead sheet was, and Segovia said it likely was discarded.

Florida law governs what documents agencies may destroy and which must be kept. Part of the statute applies to “summary information on … suspects or accomplices in crimes” and says records in that category must be retained “until obsolete, superseded, or administrative value is lost.”

Officials have not provided a reason as to why Jones wasn’t arrested until 2021, other than to say the case got a “fresh set of eyes” after Segovia was assigned as lead detective in 2020. That was around the time ESPN sued the Miami-Dade Police Department over the redacted investigative file. The last dated entry in the police report before the arrest was from 2010.

In a deposition last year, Segovia testified that police did not uncover any new evidence in the ensuing years that gave them probable cause to arrest Jones in 2021. “It was there all along,” Segovia said, but in 2007, the state attorney did not believe the case was strong enough to make an arrest.

In testimony during the records lawsuit hearings, law enforcement officials argued that they had a prime suspect and that there could be an arrest “in the foreseeable future,” which they said justified that the case was still active and its records not subject to disclosure; under Florida law, records from closed or adjudicated cases are subject to release.

In a pretrial hearing July 11, ASA Diamond offered a plea agreement to Jones of 18 years with credit for time served, but Jones — who attended the hearing via video conference — and his attorney rejected the offer.

In Florida, a conviction for second-degree murder could carry a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

ESPN’s original investigation into the case revealed a multitude of leads that police pursued, including a dispute Pata had over stolen car wheels, an angry ex-girlfriend, a nightclub fight involving possible gang members and two alleged jailhouse confessions. Nothing came of the tips.

The investigation also found multiple inconsistencies in police statements, leads that weren’t pursued to the end and people connected to Pata who were never interviewed.

Pata’s family members have, over the years, expressed frustration and disappointment in what they see as a lack of interest and effort by police.

Leading up to the trial, Edwin Pata, Bryan’s brother, said they were ready to finally see Jones on trial.

“It’s good that we’re actually going to put it behind us,” he said. “It’s constantly on our minds … we just got to be ready for it and know what to expect and be able to handle it.”

ESPN producers Scott Frankel and Gus Navarro contributed to this report.

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