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For the most part, when people think about the Bank of England and what it does to control the economy, they think about interest rates.

And that’s quite understandable. After all, influencing inflation by raising or lowering the prevailing borrowing costs across the UK has been the Bank’s main tool for the vast majority of its history. There are data series on interest rates in the Bank’s archives that go all the way back to its foundation in 1694.

But depicting the Bank of England as being mostly about interest rates is no longer entirely true. For one thing, these days it is also in charge of regulating the financial system. And, even more relevant for the wider economy, it is engaged in another policy with enormous consequences – both for the markets and for the public purse. But since this policy is pretty complex, few outside of the financial world are even aware of it.

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That project is quantitative easing (QE) or, as it’s better known these days, quantitative tightening (QT).

You might recall QE from the financial crisis. It was, in short, what the Bank did when interest rates went down to zero and it needed an extra tool to inject some oomph into the economy.

That tool was QE. Essentially it involved creating money (printing it electronically) to buy up assets. The idea was twofold: first, it means you have more money sloshing around the economy – an important concept given the Great Depression of the 1930s had been associated with a sudden shortage of money. Second, it was designed to try to bring down the interest rates prevailing in financial markets – in other words, not the interest rate set by the Bank of England but the yields on long-dated bonds like the ones issued by the government.

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So the Bank printed a lot of money – hundreds of billions of pounds – and bought hundreds of billions worth of assets. It could theoretically have spent that money on anything: stocks, shares, debt, housing. I calculated a few years ago that with the sums it forked out, it could theoretically have bought every home in Scotland.

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But the assets it chose to buy were not Scottish homes but government bonds, mostly, it said back at the time (this was 2009) because they were the most available liquid asset out there. That had a couple of profound consequences. The first was that from the very beginning QE was a technical policy most people didn’t entirely understand. It was all happening under the radar in financial markets. No one, save for the banks and funds selling government bonds (gilts, as they’re known) ever saw the money. The second consequence is that we’re starting to reckon with today.

Roll on a decade-and-a-half and the Bank of England had about £895bn worth of bonds sitting on its balance sheet, bought during the various spurts of QE – a couple of spurts during the financial crisis, another in the wake of the EU referendum and more during COVID. Some of those bonds were bought at low prices but, especially during the pandemic, they were bought for far higher prices (or, since the yield on these bonds moves in opposite directions to the price, at lower yields).

Then, three years ago, the Bank began to reverse QE. That meant selling off those bonds. And while it bought many of those bonds at high prices, it has been selling them at low prices. In some cases it has been losing astounding amounts on each sale.

Take the 2061 gilt. It bought a slug of them for £101 a go, and has sold them for £28 a piece. Hence realising a staggering 73% loss.

Tot it all up and you’re talking about losses, as a result of the reversal of QE, of many billions of pounds. At this point it’s worth calibrating your sense of these big numbers. Broadly speaking, £10bn is a lot of money – equivalent to around an extra penny on income tax. The fiscal “black hole” Rachel Reeves is facing at the forthcoming budget is, depending on who you ask, maybe £20bn.

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UK long-term borrowing costs hit 27-year high

Well, the total losses expected on the Bank of England’s Quantitative Tightening programme (“tightening” because it’s the opposite of easing) is a whopping £134bn, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Now it’s worth saying first off that, as things stand at least, not all of those losses have been crystallised. But over time it is expected to lose what are, to put it lightly, staggering sums. And they are sums that are being, and will be paid, by British taxpayers in the coming years and decades.

Now, if you’re the Bank of England, you argue that the cost was justifiable given the scale of economic emergency faced in 2008 and onwards. Looking at it purely in terms of fiscal losses is to miss the point, they say, because the alternative was that the Bank didn’t intervene and the UK economy would have faced hideous levels of recession and unemployment in those periods.

However, there’s another, more subtle, critique, voiced recently by economists like Christopher Mahon at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, which is that the Bank has been imprudent in its strategy of selling off these assets. They could, he argues, have sold off these bonds less quickly. They could, for that matter, have been more careful when buying assets not to invest too wholeheartedly in a single class of asset (in this case government bonds) that might be sensitive in future to changes in interest rates.

Most obviously, there are other central banks – most notably the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank – that have refrained from actively selling the bonds in their QE portfolios. And, coincidentally or not, these other central banks have incurred far smaller losses than the Bank of England. Or at least it looks like they have – trying to calculate these things is fiendishly hard.

But there’s another consequence to all of this as well. Because if you’re selling off a load of long-dated government bonds then, all else equal, that would have the tendency to push up the yields on those bonds. And this brings us back to the big issue so many people are fixated with right now: really high gilt yields. And it so happens that the very moment Britain’s long-term gilt yields began to lurch higher than most other central banks was the moment the Bank embarked on quantitative tightening.

But (the plot thickens) that moment was also the precise moment Liz Truss’s mini-budget took place. In other words, it’s very hard to unpick precisely how much of the divergence in British borrowing costs in recent years was down to Liz Truss and how much was down to the Bank of England.

Either way, perhaps by now you see the issue. This incredibly technical and esoteric economic policy might just have had enormous consequences. All of which brings us to the Bank’s decision today. By reducing the rate at which it’s selling those bonds into the market and – equally importantly – reducing the proportion of long-dated (eg 30 year or so) bonds it’s selling, the Bank seems to be tacitly acknowledging (without actually quite acknowledging it formally) that the plan wasn’t working – and it needs to change track.

However, the extent of the change is smaller than many would have hoped for. So questions about whether the Bank’s QT strategy was an expensive mistake are likely to get louder in the coming months.

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Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack pushes overall UK car production down more than a quarter

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 Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack pushes overall UK car production down more than a quarter

UK car production fell by more than a quarter (27.1%) last month as a cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover halted manufacturing at the plant, industry figures show.

The total number of vehicles coming off assembly lines – including cars and vans – fell an even sharper 35.9%, according to September data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

“Largely responsible” for the drop was the five-week pause in production at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) due to a malicious cyber attack, as other car makers reported growth.

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JLR’s assembly lines in the West Midlands and Halewood on Merseyside were paused from late August to early October as a result.

During this time, not a single vehicle was made. Production has since restarted, but the attack is believed to have been the “most financially damaging” in UK history at an estimated cost of £1.9bn, according to the security body the Cyber Monitoring Centre.

It was the lowest number of cars made in any September in the UK since 1952, including during the COVID-19 lockdown.

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Despite the restart, the sector remains “under immense pressure”, the SMMT’s chief executive Mike Hawes said.

The phased restart of operations led to a small boost in manufacturing output this month, according to a closely watched survey.

Of the cars that were made, nearly half (47.8%) were battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid.

The vast majority, 76% of the total vehicles output, were made for export.

The top destinations are the European Union, US, Turkey, Japan and South Korea.

JLR was just the latest business to be the subject of a cyberattack.

Harrods, the Co-Op, and Marks and Spencer, are among the companies that have struggled in the past year with such attacks.

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English Championship side Sheffield Wednesday file for administration

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English Championship side Sheffield Wednesday file for administration

Championship club Sheffield Wednesday have filed for administration, according to a court filing, which will result in the already struggling side being hit with a 12-point deduction.

The South Yorkshire club currently sit bottom of the Championship, the second tier of English football, with just six points from 11 games.

Known as The Owls, Wednesday are one of the oldest surviving clubs in world football, with more than 150 years of history.

Court records confirm the club have filed for administration. A notice was filed at a specialist court at 10.01am.

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Sky’s Rob Harris reports on the news that Sheffield Wednesday have filed for administration

What has happened?

The Owls, who host Oxford United on Saturday, have been in turmoil for a long time.

On 3 June, owner Dejphon Chansiri, a Thai canned fish magnate who took over the club in 2015, was charged with breaching EFL regulations regarding payment obligations.

Sheffield Wednesday fans protest the ownership at a game away to Leeds United in January. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Sheffield Wednesday fans protest the ownership at a game away to Leeds United in January. Pic: Reuters

Weeks later, Mr Chansiri said he was willing to sell the club in a statement on their official website.

Sheffield Wednesday's troubles have sparked furious protests from fans. Pic: PA
Image:
Sheffield Wednesday’s troubles have sparked furious protests from fans. Pic: PA

Their crisis deepened just days later when another embargo was imposed on the club relating to payments owed to HMRC, before players and staff were not paid on time on 30 June.

In the months that followed, forwards Josh Windass and Michael Smith left the club by mutual consent. Manager Danny Rohl, now at Rangers, also left by mutual consent.

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Frustrated Sheffield Wednesday supporters have targeted their embattled club’s owner in a highly-visible protest during their opening match of the season.

The Owls were forced to close the 9,255-capacity North Stand at Hillsborough after a Prohibition Notice was issued by Sheffield City Council.

‘Current uncertainty’

On 6 August, the EFL released a statement, saying: “We are clear that the current owner needs either to fund the club to meet its obligations or make good on his commitment to sell to a well-funded party, for fair market value – ending the current uncertainty and impasse.”

On 13 August, the Prohibition Notice was lifted, but a month later, news emerged of a winding-up petition over £1m owed to HMRC.

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Last season, Wednesday finished 12th. They had already been placed under registration embargoes in the last two seasons after being hit by a six-point deduction during the 2020/21 campaign, for breaching profit and sustainability rules.

With a 12-point deduction, the Owls would be 15 points away from safety in the Championship.

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Retail sales the highest in three years in a surprise to economists

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Retail sales the highest in three years in a surprise to economists

Retail sales are at the highest level in more than three years, in the latest measure of the UK economy to confound economists.

The amounts bought in shops rose 0.5% in September, far above the 0.2% contraction anticipated by economists polled by Reuters.

It was the fourth monthly rise in a row and brought volumes to their highest level since July 2022.

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Doing well were computer and telecommunications retailers as the iPhone 17 launched in the month, while online jewellers reported strong demand for gold despite the price hovering around record highs.

Gold has been in demand, and in recent days reached a record high, as some investors moved money out of the US dollar and government bonds amid the ongoing government shutdown.

It came despite a rainy month – which typically keeps shoppers at home – and a five-day tube strike in London.

The impact of the rain could be seen, however, in the boost to online spending, which rose to one of the highest levels since the end of the pandemic.

A fall was recorded in food shop sales from August to September, signalling a response to high food price inflation.

A good week for the economy?

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

Earlier this week, another key economic measure came in better than expected.

Inflation remained at 3.8% rather than rising to the widely expected 4% – double the target rate set by the interest rate-setters at the Bank of England.

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Consumers were feeling better about their finances, a closely watched measure of consumer confidence showed on Friday.

Buying sentiment is up from last month, according to market research company GFK, as intentions to buy big-ticket items like electrical goods and furniture rose.

Combined, it suggests people are not feeling too gloomy in the run-up to the November budget.

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