What defines an ace in 2025? Breaking down what success looks like for today’s star pitchers
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David Schoenfield
Baseball fans who grew up on 20-game winners understand — sometimes with much chagrin, sometimes with more emphatic degrees of horror — that the expectations for a starting pitcher are much different in 2025 than 10 years ago, let alone 20, 30 or 40 years ago.
The complete game is all but dead — no pitcher has more than one nine-inning complete game this season. One hundred pitches is now viewed as the top limit for a pitch count, with pitchers rarely exceeding 110 — Randy Johnson had more 110-pitch outings just in 1993 than every starter combined in 2025. Pitchers get more days off between starts. And the list goes on.
Forty years ago in 1985, 20-year-old right-hander Dwight Gooden went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA while leading the National League with 16 complete games and 268 strikeouts; left-hander John Tudor went 21-8 with a 1.93 ERA, 14 complete games and 10 shutouts.
Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are this season’s equivalents to Gooden and Tudor, the top starting pitchers in the majors, but when you dig into their numbers compared to their 1985 counterparts, the change in the modern game for pitchers is obviously apparent and raises the question: What does an ace look like in 2025?
Skenes, who’s the heavy favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award and should finish with the highest WAR for a Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher since the lively ball era began in 1920, has an MLB-best 2.03 ERA while leading the NL in strikeouts and WAR. He has had 11 scoreless outings this season — but his win-loss record is just 10-10. Skubal is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award for the second straight season with just 13 wins and may not reach 200 innings, just as he didn’t this past season.
While Tudor had 10 shutouts in one season, there have been just 12 complete game shutouts across the entire major leagues in 2025, nobody with more than one. The only pitcher with a shot to win 20 games, which was once the longstanding prerequisite to win a Cy Young Award, is Max Fried, who has 17 but might make just two more starts. And Skubal’s and Skenes’ numbers aren’t even unique from recent Cy Young winners: We’ve seen starters secure the honor with 13 wins (Robbie Ray in 2021 and Felix Hernandez in 2010), 11 (Corbin Burnes in 2021 and Jacob deGrom in 2019) and even a mere 10 (deGrom in 2018).
But even if their stat lines differ from past top hurlers, Skenes and Skubal are having great seasons within the context of how the game is played in 2025 and how pitchers are now managed. We’re not going back anytime soon to 1969, when 15 pitchers won 20 games, or 1974, when 34 pitchers threw at least 250 innings (we’ll be lucky to get two or three pitchers to reach 200 innings in 2025).
So, as the regular season winds down, we set out to find what defines a great season for an ace in 2025. How should we compare the aces of the past to those of today? And what is the measure of success for an ace in 2025 compared to years prior?
To answer these questions, we went back 50 years to compare 2025 to 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2015. My colleague Kiley McDaniel suggests that there are generally about 12 aces in any given season, so we’ll use that: the 12 aces from each of those seasons. Let’s get into it.
Note: The 12 aces for each season were selected using Baseball-Reference WAR, innings pitched, ERA and ERA+ (which adjusts for each pitcher’s league and home park run-scoring context) as the primary guidelines.
1975
Aces: Jim Palmer, Catfish Hunter, Tom Seaver, Jim Kaat, Randy Jones, Frank Tanana, Andy Messersmith, Bert Blyleven, Steve Busby, Gaylord Perry, Jerry Reuss, Vida Blue
Average ace line: 20-12, 2.69 ERA, 288 IP, 244 H, 191 SO, 80 BB, 37 GS, 19 CG, 5 SHO, 138 ERA+, 6.8 WAR
Average MLB starter: 3.80 ERA, 4.9 SO/9, 1.49 SO/BB ratio
What defined an ace in 1975: Durability … and wins.
Defining stat: Our aces completed 226 of their 439 starts (51%) and averaged 7.8 innings per start.
The 1970s were a pitching-rich decade — there were 96 20-win seasons in the decade — with starters carrying big workloads, especially early in the decade when 40-start seasons and 300 innings were routine. If you were an ace, the expectation was that you would finish the game. No pitcher exemplified this quite like Gaylord Perry: From 1970 to 1975, he averaged 321 innings per season and completed 64% of his starts.
The Cy Young winners in 1975 were Palmer (23-11, 2.09 ERA, 8.4 WAR, 323 IP) and Seaver (22-9, 2.38 ERA, 7.8 WAR, 280 IP), and like all the Cy Young winners in the 1970s — except Seaver in 1973 (when he won 19 games) and three relievers who won — they won 20 games. The Cy Young-winning starters in this decade averaged 23 wins — and often, wins were the deciding factor in the vote.
There was no shortage of aces to choose from in 1975 — among those who failed to make the cut were Nolan Ryan (missed time with an injury and had just 2.6 WAR), Steve Carlton (3.56 ERA, 2.2 WAR), Fergie Jenkins (25 wins in 1974, but a 3.93 ERA in ’75), Don Sutton (16 wins, 3.5 WAR) and Phil Niekro (15 wins, 3.20 ERA). In other words: five future Hall of Famers in their primes.
1985
Aces: Dwight Gooden, John Tudor, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stieb, Charlie Leibrandt, Bert Blyleven, Rick Reuschel, Orel Hershiser, Fernando Valenzuela, Jack Morris, Ron Guidry, Bob Welch
Average ace line: 18-8, 2.54 ERA, 248 IP, 204 H, 67 BB, 167 SO, 33 GS, 12 CG, 4 SHO, 157 ERA+, 6.6 WAR
Average MLB starter: 3.96 ERA, 5.2 SO/9, 1.65 SO/BB ratio
What defined an ace in 1985: A great secondary pitch.
Defining stat: The 157 ERA+ was a big increase from 1975.
It’s probably not fair to compare Skenes to Gooden, since Gooden’s 1985 season ranks as one of the best pitching seasons of all time. In a normal season, Tudor would have cruised to a Cy Young Award, but he finished second to Gooden in ’85 while Saberhagen — another right-hander who was just 21 years old — won AL honors after going 20-6 with a 2.87 ERA. Thanks to Gooden and Tudor, the average ERA+ of the 1985 aces soared much higher than in 1975, but because they were pitching fewer innings, their overall value remained almost identical.
Gooden and Saberhagen had blistering fastballs, and just them and Welch probably fit the description of “fastball pitcher” — unlike many of the 1970s aces who did rely heavily on a fastball. For the most part, however, this group stands out for a notable secondary pitch as the best weapon — and even Gooden had that monster 12-to-6 curveball. Tudor and Leibrandt were lefties with great changeups. Stieb had one of the best sliders of all time and Blyleven one of the best curveballs. The young Hershiser certainly had above-average fastball velocity, but changed speeds with his sinker, cutter, curveball and changeup. Fernando had the famous screwball, Morris a forkball and Guidry a slider.
By 1985, we had started to see an increase in the power game — home runs had increased from 0.70 per game in 1975 to 0.86 in 1985. It wasn’t quite so easy to rely primarily on a great fastball with more power up and down the lineup. Case in point: The 1975 Reds, with one of the best lineups of all time, hit just 124 home runs, which would be below average by 1985 and would outrank only the Pirates in 2025. We also see the transformation from four-man to five-man rotations and the advent of the modern closer, which led to fewer innings and fewer complete games — although our aces still averaged nearly 250 innings.
The 1980s was the worst decade for Cy Young selections. Four relievers won, but even worse were the selections of Pete Vuckovich in 1982 (3.34 ERA, 2.8 WAR) and LaMarr Hoyt in 1983 (3.66 ERA, 3.7 WAR), who won only because they led their respective leagues in wins. Leaving out the relievers and the 1981 strike season, the average Cy Young winner in the 1980s won 22 games.
1995
Aces: Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, David Cone, Mike Mussina, Kenny Rogers, Dennis Martinez, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, Tom Glavine, Hideo Nomo, Kevin Brown, John Smoltz
Average ace line: 16-7, 2.99 ERA, 202 IP, 170 H, 61 BB, 166 SO, 29 GS, 5 CG, 2 SHO, 157 ERA+, 5.9 WAR
Average MLB starter: 4.53 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 1.82 SO/BB ratio
What defined an ace in 1995: Figuring out how to survive the PED era of increased offense.
Defining stat: We start to see an increase in K’s per nine from our aces. In 1975, it was 6.0; in 1985, 6.1; in 1995, it increased to 7.4.
This was the strike-shortened 144-game season, so the aces are missing about three or four starts from a full 162-game season, which would have given us at least a couple 20-game winners (Maddux and Mussina each won 19) and a bunch more pitchers with 200 innings.
Around this time, the game’s top-level pitchers became even more dominant in comparison to the league average starter as an offensive boom arrived due to PED usage and a livelier baseball. Our group of aces in 1995 — which didn’t include Roger Clemens or a young Pedro Martinez — had an ERA 52 percentage points better than the average starter and a strikeout rate per nine that was 23 percentage points higher. Despite the high-run environment, Maddux went 19-2 with a 1.63 ERA while Johnson went 18-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 294 strikeouts in just 30 starts to win Cy Young honors.
In one sense, we were entering the era of the super pitcher: Maddux, Johnson, Clemens and Pedro all arguably rank among the 10 greatest starting pitchers of all time, dominating in a high-offense era, while Mussina, Glavine and Smoltz are Hall of Famers. In 1995, the MLB average was 4.85 runs per game — compared to 4.21 in 1975 and 4.33 in 1985 — and would climb above five runs per game in 1996, 1999 and 2000. The increased offense across the sport contributed to the decline in innings pitched, along with the continued evolution of the modern bullpen.
The average nonreliever Cy Young winner in the 1990s (skipping the shortened 1994 season) won 20 games per season, with a few still securing the honor mainly because of their win total (most famously, 27-game winner Welch in 1990 over 21-game winner Clemens, despite Clemens posting an ERA more than a run lower, 1.93 to 2.95).
2005
Aces: Roger Clemens, Dontrelle Willis, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Randy Johnson, Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, John Smoltz, Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy
Average ace line: 16-8, 2.82 ERA, 220 IP, 190 H, 46 BB, 185 SO, 32 GS, 4 CG, 2 SHO, 155 ERA+, 6.1 WAR
Average MLB starter: 4.36 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 2.08 SO/BB ratio
What defined an ace in 2005: Striking out a lot more batters than they walked.
Defining stat: Strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 1975, our aces had a SO/BB ratio of 2.4; in 1985, 2.5; in 1995, 2.7; but in 2005, it was all the way up to 4.0.
For whatever reason, 2005 saw a minor dip in offense from surrounding seasons (the MLB average was 4.81 runs per game in 2004 and 4.86 in 2006 but 4.59 this season). Clemens had his last great season, leading the NL with a 1.87 ERA and 7.8 WAR, although with 13 wins, he finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Carpenter (21-5, 2.83 ERA, 5.8 WAR) and Willis (22-10, 2.63 ERA, 7.3 WAR). The AL Cy Young voting similarly registered wins as the priority: Santana was 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA and 7.2 WAR and should have won, but 21-game winner Bartolo Colon with a 3.48 ERA captured the honor.
Overall, our aces carried a similar workload to 1995 and remained as productive, with a high ERA+ while averaging over 6.0 WAR. The biggest difference, of course, was how the aces got there: more strikeouts and fewer walks. Halladay best symbolized this new generation of aces, who combined strikeout stuff with great control. Indeed, he made the list of aces even though he made just 19 starts in 2005 — but he went 12-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 5.5 WAR, good enough to crack the top 12. Call that season a sign of things to come, where you wouldn’t need to pitch 220 innings to be one of the most valuable starters.
The typical Cy Young winner in the 2000s still averaged 19.5 wins, with new “lows” set in 2006 when Brandon Webb won with just 16 wins and then Tim Lincecum in 2009 with 15 wins.
2015
Aces: Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Dallas Keuchel, David Price, Sonny Gray, Jacob deGrom, Madison Bumgarner, Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, Gerrit Cole
Average ace line: 17-8, 2.56 ERA, 218 IP, 172 H, 45 BB, 225 SO, 32 GS, 3 CG, 2 SHO, 156 ERA+, 6.1 WAR
Average MLB starter: 4.10 ERA, 7.4 SO/9, 2.73 SO/BB ratio
What defined an ace in 2015: Strikeouts!
Defining stat: The strikeout rate for our aces climbed to over one per inning at 9.3 K’s per nine.
This season featured one of the best three-way Cy Young races of all time, when Greinke and Arrieta posted ERAs under 2.00 while Kershaw had a 2.13 ERA with 301 strikeouts. Greinke was 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA and 8.9 WAR, but Arrieta won after going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 8.3 WAR.
The increased strikeout rate is a reflection of a couple of things: We were near the beginning of the high-velocity era for pitchers, but what set apart these aces is multiple strikeout pitches to go along with their fastballs. Arrieta featured two fastballs, a slider, curveball and changeup, and Greinke had the same five-pitch repertoire. Kershaw had pinpoint control of his fastball and two unhittable off-speed pitches in his curveball and slider. King Felix had an A+ changeup and a great curveball. Kluber parlayed a cutter/slider/curveball combo into two Cy Youngs. Scherzer and deGrom had everything — overpowering fastballs, control and multiple off-speed weapons. It was a new wave of dominance that we had never seen before.
The typical Cy Young winner in the 2010s still averaged 18.8 wins. It was a very controversial selection when Hernandez won in 2010 despite going just 13-12 for a terrible Mariners team, and wins still generally remained a key factor in Cy Young voting during this decade. As late as 2016, Rick Porcello (22-6, 4.7 WAR) beat out Justin Verlander (16-9, 7.4 WAR) primarily because he won more games (Verlander actually had more first-place votes, 14 to 8). However, the tide had shifted by the time deGrom took home the honor in 2018 and 2019 despite winning just 10 and 11 games, respectively. He was clearly the best pitcher in the NL and received 29 of 30 first-place votes both years.
2025
Aces: Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sanchez, Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown, Garrett Crochet, Nick Pivetta, Freddy Peralta, Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Webb, Max Fried
Average ace line: 13-6, 2.65 ERA, 174 IP, 137 H, 44 BB, 195 SO, 16 HR, 29 GS, 1 CG, 0 SHO, 162 ERA+, 5.4 WAR
Average MLB starter: 4.23 ERA, 8.2 SO/9, 2.77 SO/BB ratio
What defines an ace in 2025: Dominance over shorter outings.
Defining stat: Our aces have allowed no runs or one run in 171 out of 346 starts.
Those totals will climb a bit over the final days of the season, but we’re still seeing a 30-to-40-inning drop in workload from a decade prior, and thus a slight drop in overall value despite a high rate of productivity. The trade-off with fewer innings is that these aces are expected to dominate over those shorter outings, which often now last just six or seven innings. Skenes has pitched more than seven innings just three times and Skubal just twice (although, one of those was his first career complete game).
Of course, fewer innings means fewer decisions and thus fewer wins from the elite starters. The eight Cy Young winners from 2021 to 2024 averaged just 15.1 wins per season and the last 20-game Cy Young winner was Verlander in 2019.
Conclusion
The days of multiple 20-game winners vying for Cy Young honors are long gone, but I hope we’ve adjusted our thinking and can still appreciate what Skenes and Skubal — and Sanchez, Crochet, Brown and the other top starters — have accomplished in an era that is much different from 1975 or 1985.
A stat like WAR is a good way to look at this. Skenes has 7.2 WAR — higher than nine of the Cy Young starting pitchers of the 1970s and eight from the 1980s. Skenes is just as valuable in 2025 as many of the top pitchers were 40 and 50 years ago in their era.
Will his 2025 campaign go down as a legendary season like Gooden had in 1985? No, 10-10 is not the same as 24-4, and losing that aspect of baseball history no doubt stirs up much of the consternation about the “decline” of the starting pitcher. But let’s leave it at this: Dwight Gooden was a must-watch star in 1985, just as Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux were in 1995, just as Clayton Kershaw in 2015 and just as Skenes and Skubal are in 2025.
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Bill Connelly
It seems like only yesterday that Florida State was running circles around Alabama, LSU was scoring a statement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a game with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly were coaching top-10 teams.
College football has the shortest regular season around but remains capable of endless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has found a new one and, because of another couple of late-game failures, Miami is again just on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in (while Notre Dame is again safe).
Now we get to find out how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate web of tiebreakers to reach conference title games? What surprises might fierce rivalry games provide? And most importantly, how much small-school playoff football do you plan on watching?
It’s time to feast on Thanksgiving and on football. It’s Rivalry Week! Here’s everything you need to follow.
Two huge rivalry games starring favorites as spoilers
Rivalry Week’s superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look — from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) — you’ll find games that will define fans’ outlooks for an entire offseason.
It’s nice to have some bell-cow games, though. And two of the sport’s loudest rivalries have major stakes this year.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox)
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Ohio State hasn’t beaten Michigan in a while. Since the start of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went through a full-on existential crisis after last year’s loss, then rallied to whomp four straight opponents and win the national title.
On Saturday, the Buckeyes will try out a new role for a new era: unbeaten spoiler. They’re safely in the CFP no matter what, though they could still lose their spot in the Big Ten championship game. (I guess that would be a bad thing?) But with a win, they could ensure that Michigan is out of the CFP running. That’s probably enough motivation.
Last week, Michigan provided a complete performance with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O’Meara, in because of injuries, rushed for a combined 171 yards, and the defense allowed touchdowns on only the Terps’ first and last drives. Bryce Underwood ranks 12th in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are 10th in defensive SP+.
Ohio State has been so ruthlessly automatic that we still don’t know everything we need to know about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling injuries of late, Sayin has completed 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to four interceptions, but he has also thrown just 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he perform when facing constant pressure? We don’t know. (Of course, Penn State got in his face a lot and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We don’t know. (Granted, he’s 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)
Smith appears likely to play Saturday, but Tate’s status remains uncertain. This might be the stiffest defensive test Sayin has faced, but it’s definitely the stiffest Underwood has faced, and he doesn’t have the healthiest skill corps either. The pressure is all on Michigan for a change.
Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been able to say it won its last trip to Austin. If the Aggies can still say that Saturday morning, they’ll have wrapped up their first unbeaten regular season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship game appearance and officially knocked Texas out of CFP contention.
Texas just hasn’t looked the part for much of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are currently 23rd with a defense that has allowed more than 30 points for four straight games and an offense that only recently began carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and while he has derived loads of success from short, easy passes, the offense is indeed clicking even if the defense isn’t.
Two weeks ago against South Carolina, A&M’s Marcel Reed put together just about the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and best second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You can’t ever say A&M is out of a game if Reed is around to dig the Aggies out of a hole, but he also might be part of the reason they’re in the hole to begin with.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3
Which contender falls on the road?
Of the 11 teams ranked from fourth to 14th in the CFP rankings, nine play on the road this weekend. A few could survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, but with so many similar teams packed together, you don’t really want to find out if you’re on the “could survive” list.
Based on SP+ win probabilities, there’s only about a 7% chance that these nine teams all win and there is a 37% chance that at least three lose. Chaos looms. Let’s talk about each of the nine games, going from the most likely to the least likely defeats for the contenders.
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had basically the same season: They’re a combined 0-4 against teams in the SP+ top 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 against everyone else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the same general strengths (ruthlessly efficient offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that show up only occasionally). Vols fans are probably annoyed that their team is out of the playoff running because their schedule was slightly harder, but they can exact some level of vengeance with a win Saturday.
My Heisman points race totals suggest Diego Pavia‘s odds should be better than they are. He’ll have to torch Tennessee’s (occasionally torchable) defense to make a good final impression. But Joey Aguilar is capable of doing the same. Both are in the best quadrant of this chart:
Both defenses played well last week against limited opponents, but the offenses have the advantage here.
Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0
No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, noon, ABC)
Since walloping a good USF team in Week 3, Miami has played three SP+ top-40 teams — Florida State, Louisville and SMU — and lost to two. The defense has been consistently strong; the Canes are seventh in points allowed per drive, and they could give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers’ run game isn’t sharp enough. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at times by a lack of explosiveness and forced to score via long drives with lots of snaps.
That makes Pitt a fascinating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive plays in exchange for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, but they’re averaging just 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they don’t find and exploit open spaces, an upset looms.
Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
In the past three seasons, Auburn has played 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 but with nine one-score defeats. When you come so consistently close, you’re always a threat.
Auburn’s defense is elite against the run, but Alabama has all but given up on the ground game. The Tide choose instead to put everything on quarterback Ty Simpson‘s shoulders, and despite a solid pass rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That’s a problem, but the Tigers could make things confusing on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (against Vandy) and Deuce Knight (against Mercer) have enjoyed fantastic performances since Hugh Freeze’s firing, and there isn’t a ton of tape on either of them. If Auburn keeps this one uncomfortably close — or pulls off a terribly damaging upset — the element of surprise could be a major reason.
Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5
No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon might not need a win in Seattle to secure a playoff bid, but if other favorites win and it doesn’t, things could get tense.
Washington’s run defense is stout enough to push the Ducks off schedule and force quarterback Dante Moore to hit big third-and-long throws that he hasn’t always made this season. But this game will likely come down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They’ve dominated all but the most elite defenses.
Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 points per game, 4.5 yards per play
Washington vs. everyone else: 42.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play
Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams gets going, Washington can beat anyone. But it would be the first time he has done so against a defense this good.
Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1
No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 start, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of three, their defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Last week’s loss to Pitt removed a lot of stakes from this game. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has enough hatred for Georgia to keep the stakes as high as possible.
If you can’t stop Georgia’s run game, the Dawgs will just keep at it, and that might be all that matters in this one. But Tech’s offense remains excellent. Haynes King has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his past four games, and he has rushed for more than 85 non-sack yards seven times in 2025. King almost willed the Jackets to victory over UGA last season but fell just short. He’ll try again in his last Tech home game (although this one will be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and not Bobby Dodd).
Current line: UGA -13.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8
No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, noon, ABC)
First things first: Yes, the current college football calendar stinks, and it was always conceivable that a coach would get wooed by blue-blood schools amid a playoff push. But as others have noted, this isn’t happening to Lane Kiffin. It’s happening to Ole Miss because Kiffin is actually thinking about leaving. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to weigh a blue-blood move — tradition, recruiting bases, an epic and ridiculous salary offer — but this is still his own doing.
Ole Miss is much better than MSU. The Rebels combine a steady run game with high tempo and high-ceiling passing. The defense has been mediocre against the run but strong against the pass. That pairs well against a Bulldogs team that makes big plays here and there but goes three-and-out too often and can’t stop even an average run game. With no distractions or rivalry weirdness, Ole Miss cruises. But, wow, is it difficult to assume no distractions or rivalry weirdness.
Current line: Rebels -7.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 14.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 8.5
No. 13 Utah at Kansas (Friday, noon, ESPN)
Utah’s defense has allowed 75 points in the past two weeks, and star defensive end John Henry Daley is likely out for the season with a leg injury. But Kansas has lost four of five since a 4-2 start. The Jayhawks’ offense has underachieved against projections in every game since September, and Utah has scored at least 45 points in six of seven games. The Utes dodged a bullet with last week’s comeback win over Kansas State, and maybe the defense can’t right the ship. But signs still point to them reaching 10-2.
Current line: Utah -13.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.0
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
Over the past four weeks, WVU’s defense has made the most tackles for loss in the Big 12, while new quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. has become a more and more explosive passer. The Mountaineers have won two of three since a 2-6 start. Will any of this matter against Texas Tech? Probably not. The Red Raiders are on a different plane of existence in the trenches, and they’ve won four games by an average of 41-9 since quarterback Behren Morton returned from injury.
Current line: Tech -20.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.5
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)
A game with CFP stakes will end at around 2 a.m. ET Sunday. Convenient. There shouldn’t be much drama, though. Notre Dame has won its past three games by an average of 52-11, and while Stanford has improved of late and scored a rousing rivalry win over Cal last week, its offense is still destitute. It will take epic rivalry magic for this to remain close past midnight.
Current line: Irish -32.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 24.9
Does the ACC have another round of surprises?
Back in the 2010s, the ACC Coastal division was the shining light for either parity or slapstick. All seven of its members won the division title once from 2013 to 2019, and all seven proceeded to lose the ACC championship game. (That’s why we got rid of divisions — they were usually terribly unequal.)
The spirit of the Coastal lives. It’s in the walls; there’s no getting it out. Starting with Clemson in the preseason, the conference favorite per SP+ has changed, wait for it, seven times this year and has done so for each of the past four weeks. Odds suggest we’ll probably get an SMU-Virginia title game next week, but since when do odds matter in this league? Four other teams have at least a slight chance at taking advantage if (when?) the Mustangs or Cavaliers slip up, including whoever wins Miami-Pitt (listed above).
No. 21 SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2)
SMU began the season 2-2, falling out of the SP+ top 50 from a starting point of 19th. Since October began, however, the Mustangs have gone 6-1 and surged all the way back to 24th. The defense rounded into form first, then the offense followed. The Mustangs still can’t run as well as expected, but quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 994 yards and seven touchdowns in three November games.
Now comes an odd test: Cal just fired Justin Wilcox after his Golden Bears followed an upset of Louisville with a catastrophic, error-strewn loss to Stanford. Interim coaches have done well this season, and Cal can combine solid pass defense with an occasionally productive Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-to-Jacob De Jesus pass combo. But this game will probably come down to SMU: If the Mustangs keep hitting the notes they’ve been hitting, they’ll head back to Charlotte in a week and a half.
Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 | FPI projection: SMU by 12.8
Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
In the past 45 years, Virginia has been a double-digit favorite against rival Virginia Tech just once, in 1985. The Cavaliers lost 28-10. In fact, they’ve been favored over Tech 14 times in that span and have gone just 7-7 in those games. In terms of general rivalry nonsense, that’s delightful. But surely they can’t lose this one, right? Tech has lost five of six, Virginia has won eight of nine, and a win would take the Hoos to Charlotte for just the second time. Surely not, right?
To the Hokies’ credit, they haven’t stopped fighting. They made Louisville and Miami sweat for a while, but they just haven’t had the horses, especially on defense. Tech’s run game could test UVA, but even against an inconsistent Cavaliers offense, the Hokies will still have to make stops, and that has been a major issue.
Current line: UVA -11.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 9.5
Down to the wire in the Group of 5
After weeks of turnover atop the Group of 5 hierarchy, last Saturday was actually stable, with the three current favorites (Tulane, North Texas and James Madison) all winning. If that continues — and SP+ suggests there’s only about a 15% chance one of them loses this week — we know where things stand: Tulane and North Texas will face off for the American title while JMU will hope to score style points against either Southern Miss or Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
North Texas is essentially the mid-major USC: The Mean Green have a relentless passing game, a good run game, a solid pass defense and a very worrisome run defense. Earlier in the season, that might have been something Temple could take advantage of, but in November the Owls are averaging just 85 non-sack rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. If you can’t punish the Mean Green between the tackles, they will overwhelm you with points.
Current line: UNT -19.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 | FPI projection: UNT by 17.7
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU)
Despite a recent two-game skid, Coastal has scored 40-plus in four straight Sun Belt games thanks to big rushes from quarterback Samari Collier and an increase in aggressive downfield completions. Nothing really worked in a blowout loss to South Carolina last week — and honestly, on paper JMU’s defense might be better than South Carolina’s — but the Chanticleers’ big-play hunting makes them an intriguing candidate to pull an upset (or get totally thumped).
Current line: JMU -21.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.8
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Tim Albin left an established culture at Ohio to build a new one at Charlotte. It might take a little while. His 49ers are 0-10 against FBS competition, and they haven’t lost by fewer than 17 since September. They might test Tulane with some vertical passing, but with the Green Wave playing a pretty good bend-don’t-break routine of late, I doubt it works. And every other matchup drastically favors Jake Retzlaff and the Wave.
Current line: Tulane -29.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 28.2
Week 14 chaos superfecta
We’re again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Utah’s late comeback against Kansas State, we missed out last week and fell to 6-7 for the season. It’s time to claw back to .500!
SP+ says there’s only a 47% chance that Ole Miss (82% win probability against Mississippi State), Ohio State (82% against Michigan), Louisiana (84% against ULM) and UNLV (84% against Nevada) all win. Let’s take down a favored rival!
Week 14 playlist
From Thursday night to Saturday night, here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Thursday
Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m., ESPN). If either American favorite slips up, Navy could be ready to grab a conference title game bid with a track-meet win Thanksgiving night. The Midshipmen have given up more than 30 points in six straight games, and Memphis has done so in four of five. May we be blessed with a repeat of last season’s 100-point, 1,225-yard feast.
Current line: Memphis -5.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 9.9
Early Friday
Iowa at Nebraska (noon, CBS). Both of these teams were hoping for better than 7-4 records this season, and Iowa in particular was painfully close to something far greater. Regardless, this has become a must-watch game: The past seven matchups have been decided by one score. Iowa has been the better team in 2025, but the Hawkeyes are only 2-4 in one-score finishes. Nebraska is 4-2.
Current line: Iowa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3
Friday afternoon
San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are assured of a spot in the Mountain West title game, and we potentially avoid tiebreaker hell. But New Mexico, now 70th in SP+ — the last time the Lobos finished in the top 70 was 2007 — has an efficient passing game, a quickly improving defense and could make the race awfully messy with a home upset.
Current line: SDSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 | FPI projection: SDSU by 0.5
Friday evening
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m., NBC). After nine games of mostly comprehensive brilliance, Indiana has underachieved against SP+ projections by 9.8 points per game over its past two. Did the Hoosiers peak early? Did they just get bored? Will that matter against a fading Purdue team that has lost its past two games by a combined 83-23? Surely the Spoilermakers couldn’t spoil the Hoosiers’ party, right?
Current line: IU -28.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 | FPI projection: IU by 28.6
Late Friday
No. 25 Arizona at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). If Kansas upsets Utah earlier Friday, a win would keep ASU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. But Arizona has won four straight and has risen to 25th in SP+. ASU could exploit a suspect Wildcats run defense with Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims, but the Sun Devils must avoid passing downs and make some stops against an improving Arizona offense.
Current line: Arizona -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 0.4
Early Saturday
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2). Two years ago, 5-6 BYU nearly wrecked Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship plans in Stillwater, bolting to an 18-point lead but falling in double overtime. (That’s right, kids, OSU was once good at football! Way back in 2023!) Now comes a reversal. The Cougars are one win away from the title game but must fend off a 5-6 UCF team with speed and no semblance of consistency.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3
Clemson at South Carolina (noon, SECN). These two preseason top-15 teams are a combined 11-12, having fallen victim to poor development, close losses, mediocre new hires and any number of other afflictions. But that’s why Rivalry Week is amazing: This game is still going to be intense and hostile, and the winner will get a dose of positivity before a challenging offseason.
Current line: S.C. -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.5 | FPI projection: S.C. by 3.4
Toledo at Central Michigan (noon, ESPN+). Since a shocking loss to Bowling Green sent Toledo to 1-2 in conference play, the Rockets have won their past four MAC games by an average of 37-6. Their defense ranks fifth nationally in points allowed per drive. But CMU has won four of five to remain in the hunt. Who keeps title hopes alive (until Miami maybe dashes them later in the day)?
Current line: Toledo -10.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 | FPI projection: CMU by 9.5
Saturday afternoon
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC). This one almost certainly belonged in one of the marquee categories above, but while so many other playoff contenders take to the road over Rivalry Week, OU has a less complicated task: win at home against an LSU team with a nonexistent offense, and the Sooners are in the CFP.
The Oklahoma offense could make this one complicated: LSU ranks ninth in defensive SP+, and OU has averaged only 14.8 offensive points and 4.6 yards per play against defenses ranked higher than 20th. But the Tigers scored only 13 points on Western Kentucky last week; 14 by the Sooners could be enough.
Current line: OU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 | FPI projection: OU by 6.6
Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The Sun Belt race is simple: The winner in Hattiesburg faces James Madison in the title game. Southern Miss no-showed against Texas State and fell at South Alabama to drop to 7-4. The Golden Eagles are increasingly vulnerable on defense, but Troy’s offense ranks 125th in yards per play. The Trojans are here because of red zone defense and a fierce pass rush.
Current line: USM -6.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 | FPI projection: USM by 1.5
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m., ESPN+). The winner is guaranteed a spot in the Conference USA title game. JSU had won five in a row until a misstep last week at Florida International, and WKU has won three straight CUSA games and nearly toppled LSU last week. Which young QB — JSU’s Caden Creel or WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr. — handles the moment better?
Current line: WKU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 | FPI projection: JSU by 0.3
Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., FS1). The road team has won three straight in this strange series. In its past four games, Wisconsin has overachieved against SP+ projections by 20.8 points per game. Minnesota has underachieved by 9.7. Can the Badgers win to wrap up the happiest possible 5-7 finish? Or will Minnesota rally to grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the fourth time in five years?
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.3
Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Along with Georgia Southern-Marshall (1:30 p.m., ESPN+) and Arkansas State-Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+), we have a trio of “Winner bowls, loser stays home” games with 5-6 teams squaring off Saturday afternoon.
Penn State has been legitimately strong under interim coach Terry Smith, and Ethan Grunkemeyer‘s 71.4 Total QBR toasts that of injured veteran Drew Allar (56.6). It would be a surprise if the Nittany Lions slipped up this close to the finish line against a Rutgers team that has lost six of eight.
Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 11.1
Saturday evening
Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m., Fox). POTENTIAL SNOW GAME ALERT. The forecast in Champaign is looking pretty dicey, and here’s a big “hell yes” to that. The road team has won four of five in this series, but Illinois has been infinitely better at home than on the road this season. Of course, Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense have underachieved for weeks. Can they rally on senior night?
Current line: Illinois -6.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 11.3 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.3
North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). This is Bill Belichick’s first foray into one of the sport’s most underrated rivalries. UNC was rallying toward bowl eligibility before last week’s tight loss to Duke. Now the Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face an NC State team that is both physical and maddeningly inconsistent. A Wolfpack blowout? A UNC upset? Nothing would be particularly surprising.
Current line: NC State -7.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 8.7
UCLA at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). After a brief upturn following DeShaun Foster’s firing, UCLA has bottomed out again, losing its past four games by an average of 45-13. Staying close might require a solid amount of rivalry magic, but USC could be reeling after last week’s loss to Oregon officially eliminated the Trojans from CFP contention.
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 27.3 | FPI projection: USC by 23.6
Late Saturday
UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). They play for a cannon, and they had a nasty brawl in the not-so-distant past. Major “underrated rivalry” points here. Nevada has suddenly started playing well of late, and while we don’t know if UNLV will still have MWC title hopes by kickoff, the Rebels could hit double-digit wins for the second straight year.
Current line: UNLV -9.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 10.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The playoffs are underway in every division, and while the favorites probably aren’t going to be tested just yet, here’s a game you should track at each level.
FCS round of 24: No. 21 Yale at No. 13 Youngstown State (12 p.m., ESPN+). Two Ivy League teams reached the FCS playoffs in the Ancient Eight’s first year of accepting bids, and while Harvard (at Villanova, noon, ESPN+) appears to be losing steam quickly, Yale is peaking just in time. The Bulldogs have won their past six and have risen to 12th in SP+. Youngstown State is only 24th, but the Penguins score loads of points with dual-threat quarterback and Payton Award candidate Beau Brungard, and with their status as FCS royalty, I’m guessing they want to send a message against the playoff newcomers from the Northeast.
SP+ projection: Yale by 3.3
Division II round of 16: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 15 Western Colorado (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). A week after thumping No. 4 CSU-Pueblo to score the school’s first playoff win, UTPB returns to Colorado to face a WCU team fresh off of a top-five win of its own over Central Washington. This is a dynamite quarterback matchup — UTPB’s Kanon Gibson vs. WCU’s Drew Nash — and though the winner probably will face a massive task against No. 2 Harding, a quarterfinal berth would be sweet all the same.
SP+ projection Western by 5.6
Division III round of 32: No. 20 Wheaton at No. 5 Wartburg (1 p.m., ESPN+). I bet you thought I’d choose one of four teams from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — my own personal obsession — for this section, but I resisted because this game seems particularly exciting. Wartburg gives up only 10 points per game and piles up tackles for loss with a ridiculously active defensive front. Wheaton, meanwhile, averages 48.6 points behind the arm of quarterback Mark Forcucci.
SP+ projection: Wartburg by 0.5
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 9 Morningside at No. 8 College of Idaho (3 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho reached the NAIA semifinals a couple of years ago thanks to a dynamite offense, but the Yotes have earned a huge home game this year thanks to defense. Morningside is NAIA royalty, having won three national titles since 2018, and with Zach Chevalier throwing to Drew Sellon and Lennx Brown, the Mustangs might have the best passing attack in NAIA.
SP+ projection: Morningside by 8.3
LAS VEGAS — Golden Knights captain Mark Stone, back in the lineup after being out for more than a month because of a wrist injury, scored a tying power-play goal in the third period Wednesday, but Vegas dropped a 4-3 shootout loss to the Ottawa Senators.
Vegas dropped to 1-8 in overtime games. The Golden Knights have points in seven of eight games, but four were overtime losses.
Stone, who was placed on injured reserve Oct. 20, had 13 points in his first six games before getting hurt.
“It’s good to have his energy back,” coach Bruce Cassidy said before Wednesday’s loss. “He’s good on the bench. He’s a leader. It’s just nice to have him back. He makes our team better.”
Stone had been skating with the Golden Knights’ American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.
“If I didn’t have that, I’d probably be looking more at Friday,” Stone said of his return. “Everything’s healed. I got the practices I needed. I’m ready to go.”
Stone was on the top line when he was injured but was on the third-line center against the Senators, with Mitch Marner moving to wing. Braeden Bowman, a 22-year-old rookie, remained on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev.
This was not the first time the 33-year-old Stone has been injured in recent seasons. He played 66 games last season, his most since the 2018-19 season.
“Every injury is frustrating,” Stone said before Wednesday’s game. “I don’t enjoy rehabbing. I’ve unfortunately gotten good at it. I understand the best way to go about it, but no rehab’s fun. I don’t wish it on anyone. I’m excited to be back.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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