OpenAI leads private market surge as 7 tech startups reach combined $1.3 trillion valuation
Three years ago, Sam Altman lit the fuse for what’s become the most explosive bull run in the history of tech startups with the launch of ChatGPT.
Along with OpenAI’s rapid rise to a $500 billion valuation, other prominent names like SpaceX, Anthropic and Anduril have seen astronomical markups of late. In total, a basket of seven of the highest-valued private tech companies is now worth $1.3 trillion on paper, almost doubling in the past year, according to Forge Global, which provides a marketplace for private investments.
Forge’s value assessments are based on trading activity as well as funding round valuations and tender offers.
That number is continuing to grow. On Friday, CNBC’s David Faber reported that Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $10 billion at a $200 billion valuation, just months after achieving a $150 billion valuation.
Like in the public markets, where the artificial intelligence boom has dramatically lifted the market caps of Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle and others, AI is also the dominant driver of private market valuations.
OpenAI leads the pack (Forge values it at $324 billion), followed by four-year-old Anthropic at $178 billion, with xAI at $90 billion, according to Forge. Those three companies are all competing directly with one another, as well as with Google and Meta, to create the large language models of the future.
Databricks, which is also one of Forge’s seven leading companies, is valued at $100 billion, due to the data analytics startup’s hefty investments in AI.
The other companies in the group are Musk’s SpaceX, fintech company Stripe and defense tech company Anduril, valued by Forge at $456 billion, $92 billion and $53 billion, respectively. AI is having such a big impact on defense and national security that Forge created a new defense fund to give institutions exposure to the sector.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI (L) and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla.
Reuters
As as a group, they’ve quadrupled their value since late 2022, when ChatGPT first hit the market.
Forge CEO Kelly Rodriques said that the valuation surge is reflective of actual growth, not just projections.
“We’ve not seen this in the private market ever,” he said. “Companies that are growing at 100%, 200%, 300% on numbers that are already pretty big.”
The hunger for AI exposure is reshaping capital flows into AI, beyond just the few companies at the very top. According to Forge, 19 AI firms have raised $65 billion so far this year, accounting for 77% of all private-market capital.
With that kind of cash available, those companies have little incentive to going public, Rodrigues said.
“If these stocks are liquid and have access to as much capital as they can get, regulation is probably the only thing stopping them from staying private for as long as they want,” he said.
Even without being publicly traded, they’re having a significant impact on the public markets.
Oracle’s stock jumped 36% in a single day this month after the software maker’s earnings report, largely due to a massive contract with OpenAI. Broadcom also forged a new mammoth deal with the ChatGPT creator, while Microsoft continues to benefit from its substantial equity stake in the company.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta all recently raised capital spending guidance to reflect infrastructure demand.
OpenAI’s Altman sees some reasons for caution.
At a dinner with reporters in San Francisco last month, he described current valuations as “insane” and acknowledged that yes, “we are in a bubble.”
But he’s still betting big.
“You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on datacenter construction,” he said. “We will spend maybe more aggressively than any company who’s ever spent on anything… because we just have this very deep belief in what we’re seeing.”
Global offshore wind targets are still strong enough to triple global capacity by 2030, despite the US’s offshore wind stagnation under Trump. A new analysis from energy think tank Ember and the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA) shows that the rest of the world is charging forward, underscoring confidence in offshore wind as a cornerstone of future clean energy systems.
Based on the latest NHTSA report, Tesla’s ‘Robotaxis’ keep crashing in Austin, Texas, despite ‘safety monitors’ preventing an unknown number of crashes.
Under an NHTSA Standing General Order SGO, automakers are required to report crashes involving their autonomous driving (ADS) and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) within five days of being notified of them.
For years, Tesla was only reporting ADAS crashes, since, despite the names of its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems, they are only considered level 2 driver assistance systems.
Since the launch of the Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, where Tesla moved the supervisor from the driver’s seat to the passenger seat, it has now reported its first few crashes under the ADS reporting.
In the first month of operation in July, Tesla reported three crashes with its ‘Robotaxi’ service in Austin.
This week, NHTSA has updated its crash report and revealed a 4th crash that happened in September:
| Report ID | Incident Date | Incident Time (24:00) | Make | Model | Model Year | Automation System Engaged? | Highest Injury Severity Alleged | Crash With | Roadway Type | Weather |
| 13781-11687 | SEP-2025 | 01:25 | TESLA | Model Y | 2026 | ADS | Property Damage. No Injured Reported | Other Fixed Object | Parking Lot | Partly Cloudy |
As we previously highlighted, when it comes to both ADS and ADAS crash reporting, Tesla abuses the redacting capacity and hides most information about its crashes, unlike most of its competitors.
Therefore, we don’t have much information about this new crash, but it reportedly occurred in a parking lot and involved a Tesla Robotaxi crashing into a “fixed object,” resulting in property damage.
What’s most interesting about this crash is that it comes as Tesla released the first bit of data about its Robotaxi program in Austin.
During its earnings call last week, Tesla confirmed that the Robotaxi fleet has traveled 250,000 miles since its launch in late June.
Therefore, Tesla Robotaxi currently crashes at a rate of about once every 62,500 miles. That’s with a safety monitor with a finger on a kill switch, ready to stop the vehicle at all times.
We have no data on how often Tesla’s safety monitors prevent crashes in its robotaxis.
For comparison, the NHTSA report lists 1,267 crashes involving Waymo vehicles. However, Waymo’s robotaxis have covered over 125 million fully driverless miles since inception. That’s a crash every 98,600 miles and without any onboard safety monitor.
Electrek’s Take
That’s the problem with comparing Tesla and Waymo.
At least we can now clearly see that Waymo’s incident rate is much lower than Tesla’s, but that’s with a safety monitor in Tesla robotaxis that prevents an untold number of crashes.
The actual difference could be 10x higher. We simply don’t know. Tesla has always refused to share any data regarding disengagement or intervention rates.
One thing is clear: Tesla is way behind Waymo in autonomous driving safety.
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The electric hot hatch is more than just a show car, Subaru says it offers capabilities only possible with a battery EV.
Subaru unveils new electric STI hot hatch
It’s been quiet on the STI front since Subaru dropped the gas-powered WRX STI in 2022. However, that may change very soon.
The WRX STI was axed due to stricter emissions regulations in Europe, leading many to believe it would be replaced with an electric version. Subaru even said it was looking into opportunities for a next-gen STI version, including an electrified model, but said it would not be built on the new WRX platform.
Now, we are getting our first look at the future of STI. Subaru unveiled two new STI vehicles at the Japan Mobility Show on Wednesday, one a battery-electric (BEV) model and the other a gas-powered model.
Subaru said the EV variant, dubbed the Performance-E STI concept, “represents the future of the Performance Scene, spearheading Subaru’s new generation.”
The electric hot hatch still features a design that “evokes the brand’s heritage,” but with a bit more flair. Unlike the gas version, the Performance-B STI, the EV debuts a new three-line LED headlight design and sportier silhouette.
According to Subaru, the electric STI is “not just a show car,” it can also be used as a daily driver. The aim was to create a performance car that “would inspire everyday life,” Subaru said, adding that “this packaging is only possible with a battery EV.”
The electric hot hatch is equipped with a cylindrical battery, which offers a lower center of gravity and opens up interior space.
Subaru said the setup results in a 15% lower center of gravity than on its previous vehicles. By optimizing downforce and air resistance, the company claims it will outperform the current Subaru Global Platform.
The electric hot hatch also features a new “next-generation suspension” that lowers the hood height by more than 5% while improving control and responsiveness.
Subaru didn’t reveal any other specifics, but said that it will incorporate “innovative technologies” to offer an intuitive, exhilarating driving experience.
Will we see the electric hot hatch actually come to life? Subaru didn’t confirm it was headed for production, but said it represents the future and spearheads a new generation. When and if we will see an electric Subaru STI remains up in the air for now.
Subaru isn’t the only one jumping into the electric hot hatch craze. Honda revealed the Super-ONE at the Japan Mobility Show today, a compact EV that’s packed with fun features.
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