Plant my flag list: Greg Wyshynski’s 10 must-draft players
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Greg Wyshynski
“Please don’t draft my guy.”
We’ve all been there, right? Pick by pick, NHL players are coming off the board, but you have that one hidden MVP in the queue that you believe no one in your draft knows is an ATM for fantasy points. Finally, you’re on the clock. You check the board just to be sure and then make a selection that you know will power your team to victory and make the other fantasy owners rage with jealousy over your perceptiveness and ingenuity.
The 10 players discussed here are the ones on whom I plant my rhetorical flag for the 2025-26 NHL season. Some of them are obvious calls. But some of them are “please don’t draft my guy” players that you can queue up right now for glory.
As noted, my selections are based on how I believe the players will perform this season and how they’ll rack up the points in the ESPN Fantasy standard fantasy game scoring:
Skaters: Goals = 2 points, Assists = 1 point, Shots and Hits = 0.1 points Blocked shots and Special-teams points = 0.5 points;
Goaltenders: Wins = 4 points, OT losses = 1 point, Shutouts = 3 points Saves = 0.2 points, Goals against = -2 points.
Here’s the Plant My Flag list for 2025-26. May all your picks turn out to be great ones!
Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
Most fantasy hockey projections have the same five or six forwards ranked near the top — Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Kucherov. Draft any of them, and you’re doing pretty good for yourself … but I’m a Kucherov man for a couple of reasons.
While he has led the NHL in assists for two straight seasons, it hasn’t come at the expense of his goal scoring. Kucherov had 44 goals in 2023-24 and another 37 last season. He has had three straight seasons of at least 265 shots on goal. No one has tallied more power-play points (99) over the past two seasons. There’s no reason to believe that consistency is going to wane, given the personnel that still surrounds him in Tampa Bay, from Victor Hedman (66 points) on the blue line to Kucherov’s linemates Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point. Their line averaged just over four goals for every 60 minutes of even-strength ice time they played.
He’s an offensive machine and a durable one at that, missing only five games over the past three regular seasons — and since Russia isn’t participating in the Olympic hockey tournament means he’ll get a midseason breather, too. While Kucherov doesn’t exactly have to prove his worth to anyone, keep in mind that he’s entering the last two years of his contract.
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Pavel Dorofeyev, F, Vegas Golden Knights
The biggest blockbuster move of a rather quiet offseason was when the Golden Knights acquired star winger Mitch Marner from the Maple Leafs. Which naturally means one of the biggest questions entering the 2025-26 season is where and how Marner fits into the Vegas forward group and on special teams and which players will benefit the most from his presence.
There was immediate speculation upon his arrival that Marner will play with No. 1 center Jack Eichel. Coach Bruce Cassidy told NHL.com recently that the two stars still must pass a chemistry test. The fact is that they both like to hang onto the puck and create plays. That could mean they ultimately drive their own lines, but if their chemistry clicks and they become a dynamic duo, Cassidy said they’ll need to find someone that can finish to play on their wing.
That’s where Dorofeyev comes in.
The 24-year-old winger had the breakout season many predicted he would have last season with 35 goals and 52 points in 82 games. His shooting percentage (13.8) remained consistent year over year while his shot total increased to 254, the highest of his four-season career. He scored 13 of his goals on the power play, which finished second to Winnipeg last season in efficiency (28.3%). Now that unit has Marner, who is 10th in power-play points (96) over the past three seasons.
Am I concerned that Ivan Barbashev could get the spot next to Eichel and Marner, should they pair up? Of course I am, given Barbashev’s previous chemistry with Eichel. So I’m wagering that Dorofeyev’s finishing ability earns him ice time with Eichel or Marner or both, and that last season was the teaser for greater things.
Nick Suzuki, F, Montreal Canadiens
Suzuki has seen notable growth in his point totals over the past three seasons: 66 to 77 to a career high 89 points last season. He’s crossed the 30-goal mark in each of the past two seasons. Still hitting 30 goals while having his power-play goal total drop from 12 to four is pretty impressive.
Like Kucherov, there’s a level of predictability I like here with Suzuki. One assumes he’ll be partnered up with Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky again for the Habs. That line produced 4.3 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength play together last season, which was the highest of any line with at least 500 minutes played together as a trio.
Anything less than 30 goals and between 80-90 points for Suzuki would be disappointing. From a fantasy perspective, he’s averaged 2.11 shots per game over the last three seasons and gets a higher number of blocks and hits than you might expect from a top line center. He also begins the season with a giant carrot in front of him: Team Canada, which didn’t bring him to the 4 Nations Face-Off but is considering him for the Olympics.
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Alex Tuch, F, Buffalo Sabres
Some players are just perfectly suited for ESPN Fantasy Hockey. There’s nothing more valuable than goals among skaters in standard league scoring, earning two fantasy points per tally. But blocked shots are also at a premium in standard leagues, earning 0.5 points for every block. A player who can score a significant number of goals while blocking a significant number of shots would seem to be one to target on the draft board.
Which brings us to Tuch.
No forward in the NHL last season blocked as many shots at Tuch (113), throwing in 73 hits for good measure. He scored 36 goals (on 196 shots) for the second time in three seasons, tallying 67 points in 82 games last season — the first time he played the full 82 in his career. That he spent a good amount of minutes with star center Tage Thompson certainly helped and hopefully will help again this season. There’s room for improvement, like on the power play where he had a paltry 11 points.
Not every fantasy hockey scoring system is the same. Some might not value Tuch’s particular brand of whimsy. But for ESPN standard scoring, this guy is prototypical.
Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers
Talk about a player poised for a breakout. In his second full NHL season, Cuylle had 20 goals and 25 assists in 82 games, with his shot total jumping by 33 shots. He also had 301 hits, 50 blocked shots and three shorthanded points, including two goals. If his year-over-year improvement was tantalizing enough, he’s also likely earned himself a spot in the Rangers’ top six this season.
Cuylle skated a bunch with J.T. Miller at center and with Mika Zibanejad at right wing. Assuming new coach Mike Sullivan decides to keep Zibanejad on the wing — where the veteran scorer found his groove after a terrible first few months of the season — that line averaged 3.8 goals per 60 minutes at even strength together.
My biggest question about Cuylle is on the power play. He averaged only 0:45 on the man advantage last season for the Rangers, and hence mustered only three power-play points. Chris Kreider averaged 2:54 in power-play ice time for the Rangers last season. He’s now draped in Anaheim Ducks orange. Cuylle could be his replacement at the net front of the New York power play and if that happens, his stats could soar.
Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers
Bouchard is the embodiment of the difference between hockey and fantasy hockey. In the NHL, he’s criticized as an incomplete defenseman who can be a liability in his own end and who gave away the puck 128 times last season, the third most in the league. In fantasy hockey, all of that is overshadowed by elite point production while playing with McDavid, Draisaitl and the rest of the Oilers.
Bouchard is ninth over the last three seasons in points (189) and tied for fourth in power play points (74) among defensemen. He’s also tied for eighth in goals (40), which is one of the most enticing aspects of his game from a fantasy perspective: That booming shot on the Oilers power play.
I really hope I’m not planting my flag on a piece of land that’s in slow erosion. His 2024-25 campaign saw his numbers regress across the board, thanks to nine fewer power play points. That’s why ESPN has him ranked No. 45 overall this season. I’m assuming that’s an anomaly and that the point-per-game defenseman we saw in 2023-24 is the real Bouch Bomb. Either way, he’ll also be good for around 230 shots on goal, too.
Jackson LaCombe, D, Anaheim Ducks
If you don’t know the name, get ready to learn it. The 24-year-old completed his second full NHL season with 43 points (14 goals, 29 assists) in 75 games, with his shots on goal jumping by 79 year-over-year. He also had 129 blocked shots. That earned LaCombe an invite to Team USA Olympic orientation camp this summer.
I expect the Ducks to be an improved team overall with Joel Quenneville behind the bench of a maturing group of talents. That alone is bound to benefit LaCombe. I’m also intrigued to see which defenseman sees the most time with LaCombe, who played a bunch with both Radko Gudas and Olen Zellweger last season.
LaCombe is poised to take another leap in his offensive production with a higher shot volume and some additional power-play time, and he might be just under the radar enough to be a hipster pick in your fantasy draft.
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Sam Rinzel, D, Chicago Blackhawks
There’s a lot of chalk on this list. “Hey, draft Nikita Kucherov!” is not exactly an audacious suggestion. So let’s take a chance on a slightly less sure thing. Let’s plant our flag on a neophyte.
Sam Rinzel enters the 2025-26 season with nine games of NHL experience, in which he had five assists last season. The buzz around this rookie is palpable, with many in Chicago predicting that he could be a top pairing defenseman for the Blackhawks this season.
Rinzel was drafted 25th overall in 2022 out of Chaska High School in Minnesota. He was a raw talent that needed to develop physically and in his own zone. He played two NCAA seasons at Minnesota before making the jump to the NHL last season.
Look, it’s anyone’s guess what he offers the Hawks this season, assuming he gets the spotlight. Maybe 40-plus points with enough power-play time? A combination of blocks and hits that make him a viable fantasy defenseman? That’s the upside.
I should mention that Calgary Flames defenseman Zayne Parekh was under consideration here, too. If he makes the team in training camp, I might sprint to the waiver wire because that kid can flat out score.
Karel Vejmelka, G, Utah Mammoth
Utah has two things this season: A nickname and actual playoff expectations after last season’s 89-point debut in Salt Lake City. They added a couple of nice players (JJ Peterka, Nate Schmidt) to an improving young team with an eye towards contention. If they’re ascendent in the standings, Vejmelka should be the beneficiary.
The 29-year-old goalie inked a five-year extension back in March to solidify his status as the Utah starter. He played 58 games last season out of necessity due to the Utah goaltending depth chart, including 21 games in March and April. The ESPN Fantasy standard scoring puts a premium on wins. Vejmelka had 26 of them last season and could be in line to improve on that if Utah meets expectations.
Mackenzie Blackwood, G, Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are poised to have another 100-point season in the Western Conference and Blackwood is poised to build on his performance from last season. He had 22 wins in 37 games after coming over from the San Jose Sharks, including three shutouts.
Now for the caveat: Last season was the first time that Blackwood played more than 50 games in his career. While some of that can be chalked up to being a tandem goalie in some seasons, much of it was due to his inability to stay in the lineup previously. That he was already dealing with an injury in the preseason doesn’t inspire much confidence in his stability. That established: If he plays, he could be a fantasy-point producing netminder for a Stanley Cup contender.
Emphasis on “if he plays.” Otherwise, it’s time to plant my flag in another crease.
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GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida fired coach Billy Napier on Sunday, a day after an error-filled win against Mississippi State that included more head-scratching calls and offensive lulls like those that marked much of his four-year run with the Gators.
Athletic director Scott Stricklin made the move following a 23-21 victory that improved the Gators’ record to 3-4 but looked as if it was going to be a gut-wrenching loss until defensive tackle Michai Boireau picked off a pass with 21 seconds left and the Bulldogs near field goal range.
The game-sealing takeaway energized The Swamp, but the home crowd quickly turned on Napier and booed him as he sprinted off the field. Stricklin had seen enough and pulled the plug on a run that most of the Florida faithful thought lasted longer than it should have.
Florida owes Napier roughly $21 million, with half of that buyout due within 30 days. The rest will be spread over three annual installments beginning next summer, meaning that, since the Gators are still paying former coach Dan Mullen, they will be paying three head coaches for the second time in seven years once they hire Napier’s replacement; they did the same with Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Mullen in 2018.
Napier went 22-23 in four seasons at Florida, including 12-16 in SEC play. He was 5-17 against ranked opponents, including 0-14 away from home, and declined to give up his playcalling role despite calls to do so.
Equally damning: His 3-12 mark against rivals Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Tennessee includes the fewest wins by a Florida coach in such games since the late 1930s.
Napier is the first full-time coach at Florida to finish his tenure with a losing record since Raymond Wolf (1946 to ’49).
“Making this decision during the open date provides our team valuable time to regroup, refocus, and prepare for the challenges ahead. The timing also allows us to conduct a thoughtful, thorough, and well-informed search for our next head coach. We remain fully committed to utilizing every resource available to identify the right leader to guide Gators Football into the future,” Stricklin said in a statement.
“I will conduct the search with a high degree of confidentiality to protect the privacy of those involved. The search will focus on the hiring of an elite football coach who will embody the standard we have at the University of Florida, and we will continue to provide all of the necessary resources for that coach, his staff and the players to be successful.”
Receivers coach Billy Gonzales was named interim for Florida’s remaining five games, beginning against rival Georgia (6-1, 4-1 Southeastern Conference) on Nov. 1 in Jacksonville. The Gators (3-4, 2-2) have an off week to regroup from the chaos that often comes with a coaching change.
Jettisoning Napier will temporarily quell a frustrated fanbase, but the group won’t truly be satisfied until the Gators hire someone with a proven track record at college football’s highest level.
Napier sealed his fate against the Bulldogs. He dialed up a QB rollout on a third-and-1 play in the waning minutes that led to a punt and gave Mississippi State a chance down the stretch. He also called a QB keeper on a third-and-7 play earlier in the game, botched the final possession before halftime and was flagged for having 12 men on the field during a 2-point try.
It was a fitting end for a coach who often looked in over his head in the powerhouse SEC. Between repeated penalties, game organization issues, clock management miscues and running an offensive scheme that was as predictable as it was pedestrian, Napier stuck around longer than many thought he deserved.
Stricklin gave the coach a public vote of confidence shortly before the Gators won their final four games of 2024. They hoped to carry that momentum into Napier’s fourth season, but quarterback DJ Lagway was out close to eight months recovering from injuries — and it showed.
Lagway looked mostly lost in the pocket as Florida struggled to move the ball. Suddenly, the two-time Sun Belt Conference coach of the year, who gained fame at his previous stop by saying “scared money don’t make money,” seemed afraid to get the ball down the field the way Lagway did with such ease as a freshman.
Most outsiders saw this ending coming. Although Napier accomplished plenty while helping the program navigate name, image and likeness compensation and revenue sharing, he churned through assistants while failing to find much consistency on either side of the ball.
“The standards and expectations for Gators football are to win championships — not simply to compete. We exist to win, and will not settle for less. UF has never been more invested in the success of this football program — elite facilities, robust NIL opportunities and comprehensive support for our student athletes and staff — than we are today,” Strickland said.
“The University of Florida is a destination — a place where people come to achieve excellence. With our resources, passionate fan base, and unwavering commitment, we are determined to return Gators football to championship form. I understand and accept the responsibility to deliver a football program that reflects the greatness of this university and I thank Gator Nation for their continued support as we begin this next chapter together.”
Florida hired Napier in 2021 after he went 40-12 in four seasons as Louisiana’s coach.
The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.
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Bill Connelly
With four ranked-versus-ranked games on the Week 8 docket, we were guaranteed to see some good teams fall this weekend. We got more than we bargained for. No. 2 Miami lost as a 10.5-point home favorite to an unranked team. No. 7 Texas Tech (10.5-point favorite), No. 22 Memphis (21.5-point favorite) and No. 25 Nebraska (5.5-point favorite) all fell to unranked squads as well.
And in the SEC, No. 4 Texas A&M barely survived 2-4 Arkansas, while No. 16 Missouri (against 3-3 Auburn) and No. 21 Texas (against 2-3 Kentucky) needed overtime to secure road wins.
Parity has been the watchword in college football this year — the elite teams don’t seem quite as elite, and the sport’s middle class seems closer to the top of the pack than usual. It rules, frankly. Week 8 certainly reinforced that notion. It was a breathless mess from start to finish.
In times like these, it’s hard to know what teams and players you can trust. I’m here to help. After eight topsy-turvy weeks, we have at least a decent idea of teams’ ceilings and floors, so let’s talk about college football’s most — and least — trustworthy entities.
I went on an Ohio State podcast last week and revealed an ugly truth: Ohio State is annoying the hell out of me this season. Amid all the parity talk, I’m pretty sure Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are comfortably the best team in the country at the moment, but they choose to drop hints only in periodic doses. I prefer my elite teams to win games 63-0 and basically wear a giant “WE’RE ELITE” sign, but after last season’s experience — in which the Buckeyes lost late in the year to Michigan but shifted into fifth gear in four comfortable College Football Playoff wins — no one better understands that the goal is to peak in December, not October.
It would help if they had some elite opponents to look toward, but the Big Ten opponent on their schedule that was supposed to be elite (Penn State) is anything but, and the Buckeyes aren’t scheduled to play Indiana. Instead, they’ve been left to alternate between second-gear blowouts of iffy to bad teams and comfortable 18-point road wins over solid-but-unspectacular opponents such as Illinois and Washington.
Day at least let Julian Sayin throw some pitches Saturday. In front of a less-than-robust Wisconsin crowd (perhaps just hours before the inevitable firing of head coach Luke Fickell), Sayin, who averaged just 26.8 dropbacks per game in his first six starts, went 36-for-42 for 393 yards and four touchdowns. He distributed the ball to 10 receivers, though the dynamite duo of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate combined for 15 catches and 208 yards.
Wisconsin’s offense was never going to threaten the best defense in the country — the Badgers gained just 144 total yards and took just nine snaps in Ohio State territory (yards gained in those snaps: 6) — so there was no downside to stretching Sayin out a bit. He averaged only 10.9 yards per completion, and Smith is still averaging just 9.4 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target against power-conference opponents. For that matter, the Buckeyes’ run game is producing almost no explosive plays, but one assumes the passing game will provide more than enough explosiveness if it’s ever asked to, especially as Sayin, the redshirt freshman, grows in confidence.
Of course, we might have to wait a while to confirm that. Ohio State gets a bye week, then four straight games against teams with losing records (Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers). Three of those games are at home, and three of those opponents rank worse than 65th in SP+. Anyone craving a glimpse at fifth-gear Ohio State is probably going to have to wait at least another month.
In part because of how quickly SP+ was saying Indiana was really good in 2024, I feel like I’ve been in the front car of the Hoosiers bandwagon for a while now. And even I have found myself wondering if or when they might begin to look a bit more mortal, to drop a hint that they might be dealing with extra pressure and expectations. It would be normal and forgivable if it happened, and when Aidan Chiles and Nick Marsh connected to give Michigan State a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter in front of 55,165 in Bloomington, I thought we might be encountering such a moment.
Nope. The Hoosiers ripped off a 75-yard touchdown drive, forced a punt, drove 80 yards for another touchdown and, after a halftime weather delay, drove 75 and 68 yards for two more touchdowns to put away a 38-13 win. Fernando Mendoza was nearly perfect once again, engineering five TD drives in five tries before a turnover on downs ended the streak early in the fourth quarter. He went 24-for-28 for 332 yards and four touchdowns, and stars Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt caught 12 passes for 185 yards and three of the scores. The Indiana defense had a poor game by its standards, allowing six Michigan State drives to finish in IU territory, but the Hoosiers still haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season.
Even if your brain has been slow to completely grasp this — mine evidently has, despite my best efforts — there’s absolutely no reason to think of Indiana as anything but an elite team that will play like an elite team most of the time. And if that remains true, then go ahead and pencil the Hoosiers into the Big Ten championship game: Their five remaining games are against three teams ranked 65th or worse in SP+ and two (Maryland and Penn State) who are a combined 0-7 since Week 4.
We entered Week 8 with five teams looking at odds of 25% or higher to finish 12-0: Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Memphis and Miami. Three of them lost; the other two — Ohio State (now 49%) and Indiana (45%) — are on a collision course to meet in Indianapolis.
Don’t trust: The ACC
All of it. The entire conference is untrustworthy at this point. There were eight games involving ACC teams in Week 8; four produced upsets, three on the favorite’s home field, and two others nearly did. Stanford beat Florida State as a 17.5-point underdog, Louisville (+10.5) won at Miami, SMU (+5.5) won at Clemson in a game altered by multiple quarterback injuries and Georgia Tech (+3.5) won at Duke 27-18 in a game impacted heavily by a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return score.
0:48
Omar Daniels takes Duke fumble 95 yards to the house
Georgia Tech strikes first as Omar Daniels recovers a Duke fumble and returns it 95 yards for the touchdown.
Oh yeah, and Cal nearly lost as an 8.5-point home favorite against previously hapless North Carolina, and Virginia (-16.5) needed a late Washington State implosion to beat the Cougars 22-20 at home. In all, only Pitt’s 30-13 win over Syracuse — the Panthers have genuinely gone to a new level since installing freshman Mason Heintschel at quarterback (though he admittedly didn’t do much Saturday) — and collapsing Boston College’s 38-23 loss to UConn produced what you might call expected outcomes, though UConn’s winning margin was larger than anticipated.
As one would expect, such a wacky week shuffled the conference title odds a good amount.
ACC title odds, per SP+:
Georgia Tech (7-0, 4-0 ACC): 26.9% (up 9.2%)
Louisville (5-1, 2-1): 16.8% (up 6.5%)
Miami (5-1, 1-1): 13.4% (down 17.3%)
Virginia (6-1, 3-0): 12.9% (up 1.9%)
SMU (5-2, 3-0): 12.9% (up 5.8%)
Pitt (5-2, 3-1): 8.3% (up 2.5%)
Duke (4-3, 3-1): 7.3% (down 7.7%)
Cal (5-2, 2-1): 1.0% (up 0.4%)
SP+ pinpointed Miami as more of a top-15 team than an elite one weeks ago, and as such, the Hurricanes could struggle in road trips against SMU (which has won three in a row) and the aforementioned Pitt in a series that has produced upsets in five of the past nine meetings. Louisville’s offense isn’t quite trustworthy yet, but the Cardinals have only one more SP+ top-40 opponent on the schedule (No. 37 SMU).
Virginia and SMU still have mulligans to spend — both are unbeaten in conference play — as does Georgia Tech, which remains unbeaten overall and has moved into the ACC driver’s seat. But as fun as the Tech story is, it’s hard to trust the Yellow Jackets, who, despite having not yet faced an SP+ top-40 team, have needed three one-score victories to remain unbeaten and rank only 29th in points per drive on offense and 53rd on defense. They’re 28th in SP+, behind Miami and Louisville and only narrowly ahead of Pitt, SMU and a quickly deteriorating Florida State.
Translation: This race probably has a few more plot twists to go. The spirit of the ACC Coastal division lives. Trust no one.
For what I believe was the first time since it expanded to 16 teams last year, the SEC had eight conference games going on the same Saturday. Two went to overtime, and others were decided by two, three, seven and eight points.
When we talk about parity in college football, we’re directing a lot of that at the SEC. It currently doesn’t have a team within six points of Ohio State in the SP+ ratings, but its top 10 teams are within five points of each other. All are ranked between fifth and 19th nationally, and even with Alabama bolting out ahead of the pack, we’re still looking at eight teams with at least a 5% chance at the conference title.
SEC title odds, per SP+:
Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC): 25.8% (up 7.0%)
Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0): 17.6% (up 3.1%)
Georgia (6-1, 4-1): 13.9% (up 3.4%)
Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1): 10.4% (up 2.7%)
Texas (5-2, 2-1): 7.7% (up 1.2%)
Missouri (6-1, 2-1): 7.4% (up 1.5%)
Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1): 7.1% (down 9.1%)
Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1): 5.5% (up 1.8%)
Alabama indeed eased out in front thanks to Saturday’s 37-20 win over Tennessee. Who knows how the game might have played out if Zabien Brown hadn’t picked off a Joey Aguilar pass at the goal line and taken it 99 yards for a touchdown as the first half expired — instead of a 16-14 or 16-10 halftime lead for Bama, it was 23-7. But the Tide once again got the two things they have come to rely on: red zone stops from the defense and just the right plays from Ty Simpson.
In Bama’s current run of four straight wins over ranked foes, opposing teams have scored touchdowns on just seven of 14 red zone trips, with three turnovers, a turnover on downs and only one field goal among the seven failures. The Tide are just 58th in yards allowed per play and 66th in success rate allowed, but they’re 22nd in scoring defense. That’s a tenuous balance, and we’ll see what happens against Oklahoma or anyone they might face in the SEC championship game or CFP, but it’s working well for now.
It works even better since they know they’ll get what they need from Simpson. That Week 1 defeat at Florida State grows more baffling by the week, but since then Simpson ranks seventh in Total QBR with a 74% completion rate, a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 52% success rate on third and fourth down (national average on those downs: 40%). He’s also the only guy this season who has outdueled Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Simpson has earned our trust, although I’m still willing to cast a suspicious glance toward the defense.
Trust: Georgia’s toughness
I’m also struggling to trust quite a few aspects of Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. They struggled to run efficiently against either of the two good defenses they’ve faced, they continue to lack in the big-play department, and while they’ve played against three top-15 offenses, per SP+, we still expect a Smart defense to rank higher than 49th in points allowed per drive or 48th in success rate allowed.
Still, you have to admire the Dawgs’ flair for the moment. They spotted Tennessee a 14-point lead in the first quarter, Auburn a 10-point lead in the first, Alabama a 14-point lead in the second and Ole Miss a nine-point lead in the third, and yet, the only team they lost to was Bama. (And it looked like they were going to win that one, too, until Bama’s defensive red zone magic struck.) Against Auburn’s awesome defense in Week 7, they eventually figured out a way to eke out 20 points and a road win; against Ole Miss’ awesome offense in Week 8, they allowed five straight touchdowns to start the game but stayed within pecking distance and then suddenly locked the Rebels all the way down. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss went 1-for-10 passing during a fourth quarter in which Georgia outgained the Rebels 143-13 and outscored them 17-0. The result: yet another comeback win 43-35.
When the Bulldogs need to score 40-plus, they do it. When they need to hold an opponent to 10, they do it. It would be awfully boring if, in this year of epic SEC parity — when Texas A&M, Missouri, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt all have at least a puncher’s chance at the crown — we got another Georgia-Bama conference title game. But it’s pretty damn hard to think we won’t at this point, isn’t it?
Don’t trust: Arch Manning and Texas’ offense
I called Ohio State’s defense the best in the country above, and I certainly believe it is. SP+, however, still leans toward Texas, which held the Buckeyes to 14 points in the season opener and has allowed only one opponent to score more than that. The Longhorns rank fourth in points allowed per drive and 10th in yards allowed per play — quite possibly the second-best defense in the sport to my eyes.
Despite the defense, however, and despite a potentially key tiebreaker win over Oklahoma last week, Texas is only fifth on the SEC title odds list above, just ahead of Missouri and behind those Sooners. You already know the reason, of course: an offense that ranks 74th in yards per play, 88th in points per drive, 101st in success rate (80th rushing, 110th passing) and 116th in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards. On 46.5% of their pass attempts this season, they’d have been as well or better off just spiking the ball into the ground; that “spike factor” ranks 120th.
I don’t bring this up to heap further scorn on Arch Manning, or at least not to specifically do that. The preseason Heisman favorite hasn’t gotten any of the help he needed this season, and he certainly didn’t in Saturday night’s 16-13 win over Kentucky. His running backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry in Lexington, and his first 25 pass attempts produced just eight completions and three sacks. He did complete four straight short passes late, but Texas gained just 179 yards against a Wildcats defense that allowed 461 yards to Eastern Michigan in mid-September.
The Longhorns survived when Kentucky foolishly called two straight halfback dives into the teeth of Texas’ enormous defensive line and turned the ball over on downs in overtime, setting up Mason Shipley’s game-winning field goal. But this offense is still failing to clear an increasingly low bar. It has underachieved against SP+ projections in five of seven games and needed a special teams touchdown to overachieve its projection against Oklahoma last week.
No matter how good the defense may be, it’s going to face four of the nation’s top 15 offenses (per SP+) in its last five games, and the offense is going to face three defenses that grade out better than Kentucky’s. If it can’t help Manning, and Manning can’t help himself and start to improve — a hard thing to do midstream, especially when your issues seem to be pretty fundamental things such as footwork, pocket timing and accuracy — then how exactly does Texas end up with a playoff résumé? Things could be worse; the Horns could have easily lost to UK. But it’s hard to see things getting much better.
I’m not sure my trust is going to be enough. At 5-2 with no serious résumé-building win opportunities left, it sure seems like Notre Dame will be at or near the bottom of a pile of hypothetical two-loss teams even if it gets to 10-2 at the end of the regular season. There’s no shame in losing to Miami and Texas A&M — teams that are a combined 12-1 — by four combined points, as the Irish did, and their list of quality wins just isn’t going to end up being all that impressive even if USC, Saturday night’s victim, keeps playing well.
For this conversation, however, that doesn’t really matter. All that matters is that this is one of the five best teams in the country right now, and I’m growing to trust the Irish considerably. (Well, everything but their place-kicking anyway.) They’ve overachieved against SP+ projections over the last five games by an average of 14.9 points. And even though quarterback CJ Carr had a poor game Saturday — 16-for-26 for 136 yards, a TD, an interception, a sack and a 32.8 Total QBR — they still overachieved against their offensive projections thanks to a 228-yard rushing performance from Jeremiyah Love, his first genuine breakout game of the year, and an 87-yard performance with a kick return score from backup Jadarian Price.
Combine a high-end offense with a defense that seems to have completely solved itself over the last month, and you’ve got a hell of a team. After allowing 32.7 points per game in Chris Ash’s first three games as coordinator, the Irish have since allowed just 12.8 per game despite playing USC (first in offensive SP+), Arkansas (fifth) and Boise State (25th), and despite dealing with injuries to stars such as corner Leonard Moore and tackle Gabriel Rubio. USC had scored at least 31 points in every game before Saturday and came to South Bend averaging 8.3 yards per play; the Trojans managed just 24 points and 5.6 yards per play against the Irish.
Thanks primarily to the early defensive struggles, the Irish were 21st in SP+ after three games. They’re now sixth after seven games. Only one remaining game is projected within 17 points, per SP+, and if they make the CFP they could do some serious damage. We’ll have to see what fate has in store in that regard.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Temple: up 4.5 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 88th to 72nd)
Florida International: up 4.3 points (from 130th to 124th)
James Madison: up 3.6 points (from 59th to 47th)
Central Michigan: up 3.5 points (from 125th to 114th)
Oregon State: up 3.5 points (from 114th to 106th)
After losing to Delaware and UConn by a combined 89-26, FIU unleashed a nearly perfect performance out of nowhere Tuesday, heading up to Western Kentucky and winning 25-6. James Madison, meanwhile, knocked Old Dominion out in a delightful Saturday slugfest, scoring 42 straight points to turn a 27-21 deficit into a 63-27 rout.
But we need to talk about Temple for a second: The Owls hadn’t topped three wins since 2019, watching their meticulously rebuilt program crumble to the ground in the 2020s. But then they hired KC Keeler. It might have been the best hire of last offseason. The 66-year-old has them at 4-3 following Saturday’s 49-14 blowout of Charlotte.
Temple hasn’t had the athleticism to keep up with high-level power-conference opponents — Oklahoma and Georgia Tech beat the Owls by a combined 87-27 — but against teams in their weight class, they’re 4-1, having overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 19.4 points and having lost only to unbeaten Navy in the last minute. What a turnaround.
Here are the five power-conference teams that rose the most:
Minnesota: up 3.1 points (from 57th to 49th)
UCF: up 3.0 points (from 58th to 51st)
Cincinnati: up 1.8 points (from 30th to 25th)
Stanford: up 1.7 points (from 108th to 101st)
North Carolina: up 1.6 points (from 103rd to 98th)
Minnesota sure does love playing Nebraska. The Gophers pummeled the Huskers on Friday night 24-6 to move to 5-2 on the season. Without that ghastly egg-laying loss at Cal in Week 3, they’d be ranked and looking at a potential 9-3 finish or so.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
UTSA: down 5.0 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 61st to 71st)
Tennessee: down 4.0 points (from 11th to 18th)
Rutgers: down 3.8 points (from 50th to 67th)
Nebraska: down 3.7 points (from 20th to 26th)
West Virginia: down 3.6 points (from 80th to 97th)
Memphis: down 3.5 points (from 24th to 30th)
Northern Illinois: down 3.3 points (from 118th to 127th)
South Carolina: down 3.3 points (from 40th to 52nd)
USC: down 2.9 points (from 14th to 16th)
Clemson: down 2.8 points (from 39th to 46th)
There’s no great shame in losing at Alabama, but Tennessee’s slippage here has been a long time coming: The Vols have now underachieved against projections for five straight games, and they’ve done so by double digits in each of the past two. The defense, which finished sixth in defensive SP+ last season, has underachieved in every game and is down to 44th, and while the offense propped the Vols up for a while, it has also underachieved the past two weeks. Continued underachievement at that level would put them in danger of losing at Kentucky this coming week.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (26-for-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss).
2. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (24-for-28 passing for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Michigan State).
3. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (24 carries for 228 yards and a touchdown, plus 37 receiving yards against USC).
4. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (36-for-42 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).
5. Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (17-for-25 passing for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 165 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Old Dominion).
6. Taylen Green, Arkansas (19-for-32 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 131 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Texas A&M).
7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14-for-22 passing for 160 yards and a touchdown, plus 94 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against LSU).
8. Colin Simmons, Texas (4 tackles, 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Kentucky).
9. Dylan Riley, Boise State (15 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown against UNLV).
10. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (14-for-21 passing for 205 yards, plus 120 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Duke).
It was tempting to just give each of the top three names a share of No. 1 for the week. Love’s domination of USC was vital to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes (and really fun to watch), and Mendoza was ridiculous yet again — his Total QBR has now topped 90.0 in four of the past five games, and he’s completing 74% of his passes with a 21-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Kurtis Rourke was so good for the Hoosiers last season, and Mendoza is raising the bar.
I had to give No. 1 to Stockton, though. He had to be great for the Dawgs to keep up with Ole Miss, and when the Georgia defense finally showed up, Stockton raised his game even further. Awesome stuff.
Honorable mention:
Byrum Brown, USF (14-for-24 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 123 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Florida Atlantic).
Zabien Brown, Alabama (seven tackles and a 99-yard pick-six against Tennessee).
Anthony Hankerson, Oregon State (25 carries for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns against Lafayette).
Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (18 carries for 133 yards, plus 90 receiving yards against UTSA).
Brad Jackson, Texas State (26-for-38 passing for 444 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 77 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Marshall).
Nick Minicucci, Delaware (32-for-50 passing for 422 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Jacksonville State).
Dante Moore, Oregon (15-for-20 passing for 290 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 49 non-sack rushing yards against Rutgers).
Kejon Owens, Florida International (22 carries for 195 yards and a touchdown, plus seven receiving yards against Western Kentucky).
(By the way, a quick shoutout to Curry College’s Montie Quinn, who broke the Division III record with 522 rushing yards … on 20 carries! The Colonels beat Nichols 71-27, and his seven touchdowns alone gained 399 yards, including jaunts of 85, 84, 76, 64 and 58 yards.)
Through eight weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
3T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
3T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (19)
6T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
6T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (16)
8. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)
For the first time all season, the points race and the current Heisman betting odds have begun to match up. Six of the above names are also in the top 10 per ESPN BET: Mendoza (No. 1 betting favorite), Simpson (No. 2), Sayin (No. 3), Stockton (No. 5), Pavia (No. 8) and Chambliss (No. 9T).
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1 and 2. Stanford 20, Florida State 13 and California 21, North Carolina 18 (Friday). We had matching last-minute goal-line stands in the Bay Area, though Stanford-FSU gets the edge for adding in a mini-Hail Mary (to get to the Stanford 9 with two seconds left) and an untimed down following a pass interference call (which followed an errant snap). And are we sure Gavin Sawchuk didn’t make it to the end zone? One of the most unique finishes you’ll see.
W under the lights 🌲
Stanford held on for a 20-13 win over FSU, sealing it with a goal-line stop. Cole Tabb and CJ Williams came up big on offense@StanfordFball | @GoStanford | #GoStanford pic.twitter.com/cFJMlnHbnn
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 19, 2025
Cal, meanwhile, merely forced a fumble millimeters before the end zone with four minutes left. Boring.
0:48
Cal forces UNC fumble at the goal line for a touchback
Cal’s Brent Austin punches the ball out of Nathan Leacock’s hands at the goal line to force a fumble and subsequent touchback.
3. FCS: East Texas A&M 52, Incarnate Word 45. With 6:45 left, East Texas A&M took its first lead 45-42 after trailing by as many as 21 earlier in the game.
With 1:55 left, UIW’s Will Faris hit a 57-yard field goal to tie the game at 45-45.
With 0:27 left, ETAMU not only scored the winning points but did so with one of the most physical runs of the week.
EJ OAKMON POWERS HIS WAY!! @LIONS_FB LEADS UIW WITH 27 SECONDS TO PLAY! pic.twitter.com/7Efeaclppo
— Southland Conference (@SouthlandSports) October 19, 2025
Hot damn, EJ Oakmon.
4. Louisville 24, No. 2 Miami 21 (Friday). Louisville’s offense hasn’t carried its weight at times this year, but the Cardinals scripted out two early touchdowns and got a beautiful, 36-yard burst from Chris Bell. The defense took it from there. T.J. Capers‘ interception — the Cardinals’ fourth of Carson Beck — clinched the upset and sent the ACC race into chaos.
5. FCS: Lamar 23, UT Rio Grande Valley 21. UT Rio Grande Valley is 5-2 in its debut season; the Vaqueros have acquitted themselves well, and they almost took down a ranked Lamar team in Beaumont with two fourth-quarter touchdowns. But Ben Woodard nailed a 57-yard field goal with 1:03 left, and Mar Mar Evans picked off a desperate Eddie Lee Marburger pass with 14 seconds left. Lamar survived.
6. No. 9 Georgia 43, No. 5 Ole Miss 35. I almost just assumed that Ole Miss would score late and send this one to overtime. Alas. A heavyweight matchup in a heavyweight environment.
7. Tulane 24, Army 17. I reflexively made the Chris Berman “WHOOOP” sound when this happened.
Look at this catch by @shazzpreston7!!!#RollWave 🌊 pic.twitter.com/Ufc4nUZ7lq
— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) October 18, 2025
8. Arizona State 26, No. 7 Texas Tech 22. Texas Tech backup quarterback Will Hammond finally looked like a backup, but the Red Raiders overcame a number of miscues to take the lead with two minutes left, only for ASU to respond with a 10-play, 75-yard drive capped by Raleek Brown‘s last-minute touchdown.
9. TCU 42, Baylor 36. One of many games with lengthy weather delays, this one almost saw a three-minute, 21-point comeback. TCU led 42-21, but Keaton Thomas returned a fumble for a touchdown, Sawyer Robertson completed a 35-yard touchdown to Kole Wilson, and Baylor recovered an onside kick with 30 seconds left. But Namdi Obiazor picked Robertson off near midfield, and the Horned Frogs survived.
10. UAB 31, No. 22 Memphis 24. You get points for creativity, Memphis. After Greg Desrosiers Jr. had his game-tying, 41-yard touchdown disallowed — replay determined he was down just short of the goal line — Memphis proceeded to commit two false starts and a delay of game, and backup quarterback AJ Hill‘s fourth-down pass to Cortez Braham Jr. was incomplete by inches. I’ve never seen a team lose a game like that.
11. Division II: Benedict 31, Edward Waters 27.
12. UCLA 20, Maryland 17.
14. FCS: Chattanooga 42, ETSU 38.
15. Marshall 40, Texas State 37 (2OT).
16. No. 16 Missouri 23, Auburn 17 (OT).
18. Division III: No. 14 John Carroll 31, No. 11 DePauw 27.
19. NAIA: Faulkner 36, Cumberlands 35.
20. Florida 23, Mississippi State 21
It says a lot about the week that we had two SEC overtime games, and neither made the top 15.
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