
What’s changed since preseason for Texas, Clemson and the national title picture
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Bill ConnellySep 21, 2025, 06:45 PM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
In Friday’s Week 4 preview I wrote that Saturday would basically close the book on the first act of the 2025 college football season. That’s basically what happened.
Some wobbly teams lost further ground and nearly eliminated themselves from playoff contention. Others seemed to right themselves with playoff hopes intact. Upstarts made statements — Indiana humiliated Illinois, Texas Tech won a Utah-as-hell game over Utah, Ole Miss once again hinted at spectacular upside and hierarchies were altered.
Next Saturday, we begin Act II with a loaded week and a pair of epic evening headliners — Oregon at Penn State and Alabama at Georgia. But before we dive into that, let’s take a look at what actually changed over the first four weeks of the season. Which races have been completely scrambled? Which haven’t really been altered all that much? And who in the world is going to step up in the Heisman race?
We have no national title favorite
One of the stories of the offseason was that it felt like the top of the sport was a bit more decentralized, that the best teams maybe weren’t quite as dominant and more teams had semi-legitimate national title shots.
As it turns out, we were underselling it. In the preseason, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gave Texas a 24.7% chance at the title, with four teams over 10% and 17 teams over 1%. Four weeks later, no one is over 12.5%, and 20 teams are at 1% or higher. Eight teams are within three points of No. 1 in FPI, and while Oregon has separated itself a bit in SP+, teams No. 2 through 14 are separated by less than a touchdown. Maybe the Ducks are indeed the best the sport has to offer this season; it’s hard to argue with a combined four-game scoreline of 203-37 (though Indiana‘s 219-33 scoreline is even more garish). But it feels like we know even less about the top of the sport now than we did four weeks ago, and that’s an incredible feeling.
Largest increase in national title odds since the preseason:
• Oregon +8.4% (to 12.3%)
• Indiana +7.3% (to 7.5%)
• Ole Miss +6.4% (to 8.5%)
• USC +4.7% (to 5.8%)
• Miami +3.3% (to 4.7%)
Hello there, Indiana. We live in a world in which Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have better title odds than Alabama, Texas or Penn State. That’s how good they’ve looked this year, and that’s the level of statement they made in Saturday night’s 63-10 humiliation of Illinois.
It started in the trenches. The Indiana running back trio of Roman Hemby, Khobie Martin and Kaelon Black combined for 36 carries, 261 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Hoosiers defense sacked Illinois’ Luke Altmyer seven times while limiting Illini RBs to 2.6 yards per carry. Illinois’ Collin Dixon sprang open for a 59-yard touchdown early in the game, but otherwise the visitors averaged 2.3 yards per play. I mentioned in my Friday preview that it was pretty confusing that Illinois was ranked 10 spots ahead of Indiana heading into the game. The Hoosiers evidently thought that was a little strange as well and did something about it.
Largest decrease in national title odds since the preseason:
• Texas -18.1% (to 6.6%)
• Penn State -5.7% (to 3.1%)
• Notre Dame -4.8% (to 0.3%)
• Alabama -3.6% (to 7.2%)
• South Carolina -2.4% (to 0.0%)
These teams landed on this list in five different ways. Texas lost to Ohio State and has watched its offense stutter and stumble all season. The Horns potentially took a solid step forward in Saturday’s 55-0 blowout of hapless Sam Houston, but they’re still only 44th in SP+, and a lot of margin for error has seeped away.
Penn State remains unbeaten but has seen its odds dinged both by a series of merely good performances against poor competition and the relative rise of upcoming opponents Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State. The road looks a little rockier.
Notre Dame lost two huge games to start the season, and while the computers still like the Irish reasonably well, they’ll have to win out and hope to get a decent strength-of-schedule boost along the way.
Alabama laid the biggest egg of Week 1 and saw its rating fall accordingly (before rebounding a bit in Weeks 2 and 3). And now six of their next seven games are against ranked opponents. That’s great for resume-building, but it’s not great for maintaining a playoff-worthy record.
South Carolina’s offense started the year in neutral, and when the Gamecocks finally got going a bit Saturday, their defense dropped the ball. They averaged 5.9 yards per play against a good Missouri defense but allowed 6.1 and fell to the Tigers 29-20. They’re now 0-2 in the SEC and 2-2 overall.
Clemson is toast
A new week, a new low. Saturday’s 34-21 home loss to Syracuse left Clemson coach Dabo Swinney without all of his typical defiance and defense mechanisms. The Tigers outgained the Orange by 70 yards with a far better success rate (48% to 36%), but big plays, a minus-2 turnover margin and an early surprise onside kick from Syracuse did them in. All of Clemson’s old bad habits (a lack of big plays, a defense less effective than the sum of its parts) have reemerged, and their typical saving graces (an efficient ground game, a masterful middle eight) haven’t saved them.
The Tigers are 1-3 for the first time since 2004. They’ve fallen behind 16-0, 13-0 and 24-7 in their past three games, and while they battled back (at least somewhat) each time, they’re giving themselves too much of a burden to overcome. They’re also 0-2 in ACC play, meaning that even if they turn it on and win out, they’ll still need some help getting to the conference title game.
This has rather predictably redefined the ACC title race. So has SMU‘s 2-2 start, even though both of the Mustangs’ losses were out of conference.
ACC preseason title odds per SP+: Clemson 18.8%, Miami 13.4%, SMU 10.4%, Louisville 8.7%, Florida State 5.8%, Virginia Tech 5.5%, NC State 5.0%
Current ACC title odds per SP+: Miami 26.3%, Georgia Tech 14.2%, Louisville 13.6%, Florida State 10.5%, Virginia 6.8%, Pitt 6.5%, SMU 5.5%, Syracuse 4.8%
Perhaps as you would have guessed, Miami now leads the way, and Louisville is rising, but Georgia Tech and Florida State have gone from also-rans to each having at least a 1-in-10 title chance. Miami knows as well as any team that the race is just beginning — the Hurricanes sure looked like favorites during a 9-0 start last season, too, especially during the first four games before their defense began to wobble. That they missed the title game altogether and lost three of their last four is a pretty clear reminder of how much work remains.
Still, they’ve done all they can through four games, especially on defense. They’ve allowed only one of four opponents to top five yards per play, and in Saturday evening’s methodical 26-7 shellacking of Florida, they hinted at having a lot of different ways to win a ballgame in 2025. They allowed just 4.7 yards per play with seven tackles for loss and eight three-and-outs. Against a dynamite Florida defense, Carson Beck threw for just 160 yards with a pick and a sack, but the duo of Mark Fletcher Jr. and Char’Mar Brown combined for 42 carries, 196 yards and 3 TDs. They had to get really physical to win, and they did so.
Other possible ACC contenders also looked the part this weekend. Florida State and Louisville beat overwhelmed MAC opponents by a combined 106-27, and unbeaten Georgia Tech handled a semi-spicy Temple team with relative ease. We’ll see who best takes advantage of Clemson’s early collapse (and who avoids a late-season collapse themselves).
Vanderbilt and Florida traded bodies (and so did Virginia and Virginia Tech)
It’s been a mixed bag for the teams atop this offseason’s returning production rankings. Clemson (No. 1 in returning production) has bombed, Arizona State (No. 2) started the season in second gear again, Illinois (No. 4) looked fine before getting crushed Saturday, and teams like Kennesaw State (No. 5), Rutgers (No. 8) and Baylor (No. 9) haven’t started this season any better than where they finished up.
Others, however, are still defending the honor of continuity. Oklahoma (No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 7) are unbeaten, Texas Tech (No. 6) looks spectacular, and holy smokes, break up the Vanderbilt Commodores (No. 3)!
Clark Lea’s team is on a revenge tour at the moment. The Commodores pummeled South Carolina by a 31-7 margin last week (a 45-point reversal), and on Saturday against a Georgia State team that upset them 36-32 last September, they were ruthless, charging to a 42-9 halftime advantage and leading by as much as 55 in a 70-21 win. That’s a 53-point reversal. They’re now up to 16th in SP+ — the only time they’ve finished higher than that in the last 50 years: 2014 (14th) — and they have a 16% chance of finishing 10-2 or better, which is the approximate bar for getting into the CFP as an SEC team.
Some schedule strength differences aside, they’ve basically traded places with Florida.
Preseason SP+: Florida 16th (6.8 avg. wins, 5.3% chance of winning the SEC), Vanderbilt 54th (5.0 wins, 1.0% chance)
Week 5 SP+: Vanderbilt 16th (8.3 avg. wins, 5.6% chance of winning the SEC), Florida 40th (3.3 wins, 0.8% chance)
Up is down, left is right, and Vandy’s Florida now.
Meanwhile, back in the ACC, two rivals have traded places too.
Preseason SP+: Virginia Tech 42nd (7.0 avg. wins), Virginia 74th (5.4)
Week 5 SP+: Virginia 42nd (8.2 avg. wins), Virginia Tech 82nd (2.9)
Tech quickly fired Brent Pry after a dire 0-3 start — interim head coach Philip Montgomery led the Hokies to a 38-6 win over Wofford on Saturday — which made it pretty easy to forget that UVA’s Tony Elliott began the season with a seat even warmer than Pry’s. He loaded up with more than 30 transfers as an attempt to turn the tide, and damned if it hasn’t worked. Newcomers like quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas), running backs J’Mari Taylor (NC Central) and Harrison Waylee (Wyoming), receiver Cam Ross (James Madison) and defensive ends Mitchell Melton (Ohio State) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) have made an immediate impact.
After Saturday’s 48-20 thumping of Stanford, the Cavaliers are 3-1 with three wins by at least 27 points. They have a 14% chance of getting to 10-2 or better, and they’re now firmly in the “dark horse ACC contenders” group. Virginia! Contender! Granted, the thing about throwing a transfer Hail Mary is, once you’ve done it, you have to keep doing it every year. But for now, Elliott has transformed the Hoos’ trajectory.
Texas Tech’s transfer gambit was transformative
With the new most famous booster in the sport, Texas Tech didn’t load up with pure quantity in the transfer portal like Virginia did. But the Red Raiders got some of the biggest names in the portal in an attempt to transform themselves into Big 12 contenders. And my goodness, has it worked early on.
Tech overwhelmed three outmanned opponents by a combined 174-35 to start the season, but Saturday’s performance in Salt Lake City was a statement of a different kind. Against a Utah Utes team that has won plenty of battles of attrition over the years, the Red Raiders let the Utes define the terms of the game — lots of punts, lots of field position maneuvering, lots of popping pads, even an injured quarterback (not exactly uncommon in Utah games) — and blew them out all the same.
The Red Raiders lost quarterback Behren Morton to injury midway through the game, and backup Will Hammond came in and went 13-for-16 for 169 yards, with two touchdowns and a 32-yard run. They made Utah quarterback Devon Dampier‘s fundamentals disintegrate over time, and he finished with two interceptions and 3.9 yards per dropback. Their expensive new defensive front dominated Utah’s extremely well-regarded offensive line for most of 60 minutes.
New coordinator Shiel Wood — an acquisition as important as any that came from the transfer portal — has done an incredible job with an incredibly new unit. Of the 12 Red Raiders with at least eight tackles thus far, eight are transfers, including edge rushers Romello Height (Georgia Tech) and David Bailey (Stanford) and safety Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State). Tech ranks 11th in points allowed per drive and ninth in yards allowed per play. They’ve finished in the defensive SP+ top 20 only once in 27 years, but they’re currently 22nd and rising.
The performance against Utah was a display of force we’re not used to seeing from this team. And it made the Red Raiders the new favorite in the Big 12 race.
Big 12 preseason title odds per SP+: Kansas State 14.4%, Utah 9.1%, Arizona State 8.8%, TCU 8.5%, BYU 6.4%, Baylor 6.0%, Colorado 5.0%
Current Big 12 title odds per SP+: Texas Tech 28.6% (up 20.7% from the preseason), Iowa State 9.4% (up 2.1%), Kansas 9.1% (up 4.7%), TCU 9.0% (up 0.5%), BYU 8.8% (up 2.4%), Arizona State 7.1% (down 1.7%), Utah 6.0% (down 3.1%), Arizona 5.2% (up 2.0%), Houston 4.9% (up 0.7%)
We can’t say that Tech is an overwhelming favorite by any means — a 29% title shot still means a 71% chance of not winning the title, after all, and TCU, BYU, Iowa State and Kansas have all shown hints of major upside. But Tech’s general approach in the new NIL world is to basically spend like a champion until you become one. And their odds of winning their first outright conference title in 70 years have more than tripled since August. That’s called return on investment right there.
It’s Memphis’ time
We’re going to Dyer’s Burgers! We’re getting a Diver at Silky O’Sullivan’s! We’re grabbing some Germantown Commissary BBQ on the way out of town! Memphis is now the Group of 5 team with the best odds of reaching the CFP!
As with Miami, of course, we’ve been here before. Ryan Silverfield’s Tigers began last season 3-0 with what felt like a massively important win over Florida State at the time, but a track-meet loss at Navy knocked them down a peg, and an early November loss at UTSA finished off their chances. Still, with Boise State getting its doors blown off by USF in Week 1, and USF (against Miami) and Tulane (against Ole Miss) doing the same in recent weeks, Memphis’ comeback win over Arkansas put the unbeaten Tigers back in prime position.
The Tigers showed some spectacular resilience against the Hogs. They allowed a wide-open 62-yard touchdown pass to Rohan Jones on the third play of the game, then fell behind 28-10 late in the first half. But they outscored Arkansas 22-3 from there, got a 64-yard touchdown run from Sutton Smith with 4:51 left, recovered a shocking Mike Washington Jr. fumble at their 7 with 1:18 remaining, then iced the game with a muscular third-down run by backup quarterback Arrington Maiden.
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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Memphis Tigers: Full Highlights
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Memphis Tigers: Full Highlights
This was a big one, both because of the obvious résumé-building effects of beating an SEC team — albeit one that seems to somehow blow games like this every week — and the fact that it basically bought them a mulligan. At this point, only two G5 teams have a greater than 16% chance of finishing the regular season 11-1 or better, per SP+, but Memphis is over 60%.
Odds of finishing the regular season 11-1 or better (Group of 5 teams)
• Memphis 60.6%
• North Texas 37.3%
• James Madison 15.7%
• UNLV 12.9%
• Fresno State 7.2%
• Navy 5.9%
• Texas State 5.2%
• Louisiana Tech 3.5%
• Boise State 2.2%
This is yet another race that is just beginning – among other things, the Tigers must still face fellow American Conference contenders USF, Tulane and Navy (albeit all at home), then maybe face the No. 2 team on the above list, a smoking hot North Texas team that just knocked off defending American champ Army at West Point.
Still, this race felt like Boise State vs. the field heading into Week 1, but after USF and Tulane both stumbled, Memphis enters Week 5 at the front of the line.
The September Heisman goes to … no one
It appears the Heisman race is every bit as blurry as the national title race.
Each week I include a “Who won the Heisman this week?” section near the end of this column, in which I dole out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). Last year at this time, Miami’s Cam Ward and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty had already asserted themselves in the top two spots, with eventual winner Travis Hunter not far behind. Two years ago, Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams led the way after four weeks. (LSU’s Jayden Daniels would soon take over.) The stars usually don’t take long to emerge from the pack.
This year, after four weeks, your points leaders are … two quarterbacks who have gone a combined 4-3. The guy in fourth place is a backup. We knew this could be a funky season with so few top teams boasting proven quarterbacks, but safe to say, we head into late September knowing very little about how this race will play out.
Before we get to the point totals, here’s this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (21-of-23 passing for 267 yards and five touchdowns, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Illinois).
2. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (16-of-19 passing for 298 yards and four touchdowns, plus 111 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Washington State).
3. Eric McAlister, TCU (8 catches for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns against SMU).
4. Dylan Riley, Boise State (19 carries for 171 yards and four touchdowns, plus 84 receiving yards and a TD against Air Force).
5. Chandler Morris, Virginia (23-of-31 passing for 380 yards and four touchdowns, plus 23 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Stanford).
6. Jayden Maiava, USC (20-of-26 passing for 234 yards and three touchdowns, plus 31 rushing yards and two TDs against Michigan State).
7. Robert Henry Jr., UTSA (21 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown, plus 76 receiving yards and a TD against Colorado State).
8. Mac Harris, USF (10 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble and a 93-yard pick-six against SC State).
9. Waymond Jordan, USC (18 carries for 157 yards, plus 25 receiving yards against Michigan State).
10. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (17-of-27 passing for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Tulane).
In his past two games, Fernando Mendoza has thrown nine touchdown passes to three incompletions. He’s gotten help from a relentless run game — four games, four 300-yard rushing totals — but I had to reward him for his near-perfection. Meanwhile, Demond Williams Jr. was nearly perfect in the Apple Cup, and current (Dylan Riley) and former (Eric McAlister) Boise State stars combined for 509 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns.
Honorable mention:
• Nnanna Anyanwu, UTSA (5 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks and a pass breakup against Colorado State).
• Cam Edwards, UConn (24 carries for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns against Ball State).
• Josh Hoover, TCU (22-of-40 passing for 379 yards, 5 TDs and an INT, plus 35 non-sack rushing yards against SMU).
• Jayden Jackson, Oklahoma (five tackles and 2.5 sacks against Auburn).
• Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (18-of-24 passing for 245 yards and a touchdown, plus 86 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia State).
• Jadarian Price, Notre Dame (9 carries for 74 yards and three touchdowns, plus a 98-yard kick return score against Purdue).
• Kaidon Salter, Colorado (18-of-28 passing for 304 yards and three touchdowns, plus 100 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wyoming).
• Kenny Tracy, Miami-Ohio (16 carries for 104 yards, plus 84 receiving yards and two touchdowns against UNLV).
Through four weeks, here are your points leaders:
1T. Taylen Green, Arkansas; Ty Simpson, Alabama (15 points)
3. Jayden Maiava, USC (12 points)
4. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (11 points)
5T. Jonah Coleman, Washington; Fernando Mendoza, Indiana; Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
8T. Rocco Becht, Iowa State; Gunner Stockton, Georgia; Vicari Swain, South Carolina; Demond Williams Jr., Washington (9 points)
This race remains an absolute mystery. Oklahoma’s John Mateer is the betting favorite, and after a dire 8-for-19 start against Auburn, he completed 16 of his final 17 passes to lead a fourth-quarter comeback. He can score some style points with his legs, too. But he’s 36th in Total QBR, and OU’s defense has been by far the bigger driver in the Sooners’ 4-0 start.
Mateer has yet to show up in one of these weekly top-10 lists. Meanwhile, five guys have made the list twice, and I wouldn’t have predicted a single one of them: Simpson, Green, Maiava, Chambliss and Robert Henry Jr.
Honestly, I’d probably give the September Heisman to Maiava at this point. He’s No. 1 in Total QBR, he’s averaging a jaw-dropping 13.4 yards per dropback — only Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos can top him there, and Castellanos attempts far fewer passes — and USC’s offense has been absolutely dynamite during a 4-0 start.
I’d point out that Maiava is only the No. 11 betting favorite at the moment (+2200) and there might be some value there, but September Heismans don’t have the best track record of winning the actual Heisman, do they? I’ll do him a favor and award no September Heisman instead.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings.
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
• Missouri State (up 6.9 adjusted points per game, ranking rose from 129th to 122nd)
• Delaware (up 6.5 points, ranking rose from 118th to 93rd)
• Vanderbilt (up 5.8 points, ranking rose from 28th to 16th)
• Utah State (up 5.8 points, ranking rose from 99th to 80th)
• Mississippi State (up 5.1 points, ranking rose from 47th to 29th)
With respect to the two rising FBS newcomers (Missouri State and Delaware) and a delightful Utah State team that has lost only to Texas A&M, we’re going to focus on the other two teams here. Vanderbilt is on a revenge tour at the moment, as mentioned above, and Mississippi State is one of eight teams to have overachieved against SP+ projections in every game this season. (The others: Arizona, Bowling Green, Florida State, Houston, Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State and Old Dominion.) The Bulldogs are 4-0 for the first since 2014, and after collapsing to 88th in SP+ last season, they’ve jumped back into the top 30. They remain under the radar in a loaded SEC, but upcoming games against Tennessee, Texas A&M, Florida and Texas will give them massive opportunities to prove themselves.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
• South Alabama (down 8.2 adjusted points per game, ranking fell from 78th to 110th)
• California (down 7.4 points, ranking fell from 54th to 72nd)
• West Virginia (down 7.2 points, ranking fell from 55th to 75th)
• Tulane (down 6.8 points, ranking fell from 49th to 66th)
• Illinois (down 5.6 points, ranking fell from 18th to 36th)
There were quite a few disappointing performances in Week 4, and these five teams certainly all did their share in that regard. But the two biggest eggs of the week, to me, were laid by Illinois and Cal. Illinois was a slight projected underdog against Indiana, and Cal was a nearly 10-point favorite against San Diego State. They lost by a combined 97-10.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
3. North Texas 45, Army 38 (OT).
We’ll bunch the three of these together since, in about a 10-minute span early Saturday afternoon, all three featured catastrophic lost fumbles. The college football was almost too college football-like. At this point, Arkansas is going to have its own “devastating late turnovers” section in my year-end Top 100 Games of the Season list. For the second straight week, the Razorbacks were driving for the potential winning points when they lost a fumble. This one, from poor Mike Washington Jr., allowed Memphis to run the clock out after a game with three long touchdowns and an 18-point Memphis comeback.
Oof, Hogs
Meanwhile, UNLV somehow remained unbeaten despite trailing by 14 on three separate occasions and leading for just 15 seconds. As Miami’s Kenny Tracy was charging inside the UNLV 20 to set up the potential game-winning field goal, he lost the ball. UNLV recovered and drove 78 yards in 2:17 to set up Ramon Villela‘s 23-yarder for the win.
At West Point, Army also unleashed a fierce comeback after trailing 21-0 in the first quarter and 38-28 with less than three minutes left. Makenzie McGill II fumbled as UNT was trying to run out the clock, and Army sent the game to OT with a Dawson Jones field goal. But the Mean Green prevailed with a Caleb Hawkins touchdown and a stop in OT.
4. FCS: Campbell 50, Bryant 48 (2OT). FCS gave us quite a bit of overtime nonsense Saturday. In search of its first win of the season, Campbell tied the game with 2:58 left on a 77-yard Kamden Sixkiller-to-Randall King touchdown, then took the lead on another Sixkiller-to-King strike 103 seconds later. Bryant struck back with a 35-yard Aldrich Doe touchdown catch with six seconds left but played for OT instead of going for two points and the win. And in the second OT, they failed on a 2-pointer and Campbell survived.
5. FCS: No. 4 Illinois State 38, North Alabama 36 (2OT). A comfortable home favorite, ISU bolted to a 17-0 lead just six minutes in and led by 10 heading into the fourth quarter, but Ari Patu‘s 25-yard touchdown strike to KJ Fields with 33 seconds left sent the game to overtime. In the second OT, Daniel Sobkowicz caught his second touchdown pass and scored the 2-point conversion, and ISU’s defense stopped UNA’s 2-pointer to salvage the win.
6. No. 11 Oklahoma 24, No. 22 Auburn 17. Killer environment? Check. Wild number of sacks? Check. OU took former Sooner Jackson Arnold down 10 times but still trailed with five minutes left until John Mateer‘s short touchdown run and a safety-sack sealed the deal.
7. Arizona State 27, Baylor 24. Neither team led by more than seven in this one — Jordyn Tyson‘s 19-yard touchdown gave ASU a 24-17 lead with 5:29 left, but Baylor quickly struck back with a 33-yard score from Michael Trigg. A pair of third-down penalties helped ASU inch down the field on its final drive, however, and Jesus Gomez knocked in a 43-yard FG at the buzzer.
8. Troy 21, Buffalo 17. This one seemed pretty straight-forward for the home team: Buffalo took a 17-0 lead early in the fourth quarter. But Troy scored on drives of 75, 66 and 50 yards, and Tae Meadows‘ 20-yard touchdown with 45 seconds left sealed a stunning comeback win.
9. Division II: New Mexico Highlands 48, South Dakota Mines 42 (OT). Do you like track meets and wild comebacks? In front of 3,152 in Las Vegas, New Mexico, these teams combined for 1,063 yards and five TDs of 40-plus yards. That includes a 96-yard fumble return for Mines and a 99-yard score on the ensuing kickoff. S.D. Mines scored three times in the final 13 minutes to erase a 42-21 deficit and force overtime, but the Hardrockers (Hardrockers!) were stuffed on fourth-and-goal in OT, and Tevita Valeti’s 1-yard touchdown sealed a wild Cowboys win.
10. Division III: Coast Guard 92, Nichols 60. OK, but do you like track meets?? In front of 3,054 in New London, Connecticut, Coast Guard scored 64 points in the first half but kept having to score to assure an easy win in a game that featured nine touchdowns of at least 38 yards and 1,412 total yards. My goodness!
Honorable mention:
• D-III: Calvin 40, Heidelberg 37 (OT)
• Eastern Michigan 34, Louisiana 31
• No. 21 Michigan 30, Nebraska 27
• NAIA: Peru State 64, Central Methodist 43
• FCS: San Diego 42, Princeton 35
• San José State 31, Idaho 28
• UConn 31, Ball State 25
• FCS: No. 24 Youngstown State 31, Towson 28
Oh, and if you were curious about the Ferris State-Rio Grande game mentioned in Friday’s preview column, in which Ferris State was a projected 97.2-point favorite per SP+, the Bulldogs led 35-0 after 16 minutes before Tony Annese seemed to call off his dogs a bit. It finished a mere 76-0, and the only reason it probably even got that bad was that the Dawgs scored on a kick return, fumble return, interception return and missed field goal return.
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Ryan McGee
Oct 22, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Inspirational thought of the week:
(Cole Trickle drives his mangled Chevy Lumina into the pit stall)
Buck Bretherton: “Well, how about that? Something we don’t have to fix!”
(Crew chief Harry Hogge walks over and kicks a dent into the side of the car Bretherton is looking at)
Harry Hogge: “I don’t want you to get spoiled, Buck.”
— “Days of Thunder”
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located behind the footlocker on the “College GameDay” bus where Nick Saban keeps his secret stash of “Anchor Down” Vanderbilt football apparel, we are beginning to worry that perhaps those of you who visit these rankings, as the kids say, “on the regular” might be like those who benefited from Saban’s time in Tuscaloosa. You’re getting a little spoiled.
Just two weeks ago, we had an all-time majestically meh Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Mega Bowl matchup between UMess and State of Kent, winners of a lot of the most recent Bottom 10 titles. (We tried to look up exactly how many, but someone spilled Yoo-hoo on the archival floppy disk.) Then, this past week, we had the Sam Houston Bearkats kutting it up with UTEPid. Now the stage is set for a third consecutive PFOWY, as Georgia State Not Southern hosts the South Alabama Redundancies. And, as you will read in the words ahead, this is just the tip of a season-sinking iceberg of not-big games coming, as the spotter on the Titanic shouted way too late, “Right ahead!”
So, for all the talk about Power Autonomous Haughty Four conference realignment, in-conference scheduling, CFP committee résumé reading and the headliner showdowns that all of the above seem to bring with them, how about some props for the same happening down here with us? And by props, I totally mean rubber chickens, whoopee cushions and one of those Groucho Marx plastic-nose-on-the-glasses things.
With apologies to former Wichita State wide receiver Mike Proppe, former Drake tight end Hal Proppe, USC DB Prophet Brown and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 8 Bottom 10 rankings.
The Minuetmen continued their Backtion in #MACtion schedule, playing a former fellow Bottom 10 anchor, the Buffalo Bulls Not Bills. With 59 seconds remaining, the Amherst Amblers hauled in an interception that seemed to ice a 21-20 win. As the ESPN Analytics Ouija board said they had a 90.9% chance of victory, UMass players proceeded to demonstratively wave goodbye and do faux snow angels in celebration, drawing an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. After a three-and-out followed by a punt, the Minuetmen surrendered a four-play, 50-yard, 22-second TD drive to lose in the closing seconds, their lead turning out to be as real as that snow.
The bad news? The Bearkats lost the Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Episode II: Attack of the Groans to UTEPid 35-17. The good news? If they don’t tell anyone it happened, no one is likely to ever know, because the crowd they played in front of was so small it would have saved time in the pregame to have had the PA announcer introduce the people in the stands to the starting lineups instead of the starting lineups to the people in the stands.
Official attendance for Sam Houston vs. UTEP : 671
Smallest crowd in SHSU history https://t.co/rnNmBetqfQ
— UTEPnews (@theUTEPnews) October 16, 2025
What a stretch for the Beavs. They finally won a game, beating the Lafayette Leopards, current leaders of the Patriot League. After a week versus the Fightin’ Bye of Open Date U, they will play the first of their in-season home-and-home double feature against Washington State, with whom they are currently tied for first in the 2Pac. Then they host Sam Houston State in the Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Episode IV: A New Dope.
The Minors won their second game of the season, but their boat remains mired in the Bottom 4 because Pillow Fight victories over other teams in the Bottom 4 come with trophies made of lead. Plus, that pickax of theirs is always accidentally punching holes in the boat.
Ah, the rites of autumn. You can set your clock to their inevitability. The cool dip of the evening temperatures. The changing colors of the leaves. Suburban moms mainlining pumpkin spice. The Miami Hurricanes interrupting their latest “We’re back!” campaign with a midseason loss that lands them in the Coveted Fifth Spot. And the fans of those Canes not understanding what the Coveted Fifth Spot is despite the fact that they are here every year and thus raise Cane by filling my social media timelines with strings of cuss words stronger than Cuban coffee.
The Woof Pack keeps losing close games, the latest being their two-point defeat at the paws of New Mexico. But you know what they say. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. And atomic bomb tests, which happened about 300 miles east of Reno. Feels pretty close to us.
Much like we should all keep a safe distance between ourselves and atomic bomb testing, the Blew Raiders have a built-in buffer between Murfreesboro and the Bottom 5 in the form of Novada, whom they edged by the closest of margins, 14-13 way back in Week 3. But their Nov. 22 visit from Sam Houston does have the makings of a possible boundary-smashing Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Episode VII: The Farce Awakens.
Meanwhile, the Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Y’all Edition was won by Georgia Southern Not State over Georgia State Not Southern. I made a joke last week that the loser would have to change their name from GSU to GUS but was angrily informed that this game already has a GUS in the form of the Georgia Southern Eagles mascot named, yes, Gus. The nastiest letter I received wasn’t signed, but it was covered in white feathers.
Our second-favorite red, white and blue team named USA returns to these rankings just in time for its matchup with Georgia State Not Southern, a meeting of the last-place teams in each division of the Fun Belt, aka the Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Episode V: The Empire Looks Wack.
In my mind I can see this one resident of Massachusetts who had his heart broken by the Red Sox to start the MLB postseason … so he decided to go to the UConn-Boston College game to clear his head, only to watch the Eagles get run over by the Artist Formerly Known As U-Can’t … but then had the thought, “Hey, I can make it out to Amherst for the second half!” and started waving bye with 0:59 remaining when he thought UMass was going to win and watched the Minuetmen blow it … so, when he finally got home to Southie, and after his dog bit him, he made himself feel better by opening a six-pack of Sam Adams and going on the new ESPN App to watch the replay of Bill Belichick’s Tar Holes losing to Cal by fumbling the ball at the goal line late in the fourth quarter.
Waiting list: Northern Ill-ugh-noise, State of Kent, EMU Emus, Oklahoma State No Pokes, Charlotte 1-and-6ers, Wisconsin Bad-gers, Akronmonious, UNC Chapel Bill, the USC-Notre Dame series ending.
Sports
‘This didn’t happen overnight’: Why the Mariners are built to be back after a crushing ALCS loss
Published
14 hours agoon
October 22, 2025By
admin
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David SchoenfieldOct 22, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Seattle Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo was being interviewed in the clubhouse following the team’s Game 7 loss in the American League Championship Series to the Toronto Blue Jays when, suddenly, in the background, you can hear an anguished scream.
Mariners’ fans understand heartbreak — they can relate to that scream.
For most of the 49-season existence of the Mariners, fans of the club relied on hope: hope for the first winning season, hope the franchise didn’t relocate, hope of making the playoffs for the first time, hope to end a 20-year playoff drought. Hope for a World Series. And with one crack of the bat on Monday night, that hope was crushed.
It didn’t start out that way, though. The Mariners won the first two games of the ALCS on the road in Toronto — and teams that won the first two on the road in a best-of-seven series had gone 26-3 in MLB history (excluding 2020).
After dropping the first two games in Seattle, they won a dramatic Game 5 on Eugenio Suarez‘s grand slam to take a 3-2 series lead. The winner of Game 5, when a series was tied, had gone on to win a best-of-seven series 69% of the time in MLB history.
The Mariners went on to lose Game 6, playing about as sloppy a game as you can play, and then lost Game 7 on George Springer‘s three-run home run in the seventh inning — only the second come-from-behind home run while trailing by multiple runs in a winner-take-all game in playoff history (Pete Alonso hit the first last year for the New York Mets).
That’s a lot of qualifiers, but it hammers home the despair: That was an especially difficult defeat, eight outs away from the franchise’s first ever World Series, a moment Seattle sports fans will forever remember, alongside not giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl XLIX. The Mariners remain the only one of the 30 franchises never to play in a Fall Classic.
The pain will linger. Soon enough, however, thoughts will turn to 2026, as they must — and Seattle is well-positioned not only for next season, but for the long term.
While the Mariners have just two playoff appearances in the past five seasons, they’re one of the most stable organizations in the sport, one of just six with winning records every season since 2021 and seventh in wins in that span. They have a strong farm system that features eight players ranked in Kiley McDaniel’s August top 100 prospects update, including shortstop Colt Emerson, the No. 7 prospect, and pitcher Kade Anderson, the No. 3 pick in the 2025 MLB draft, who ranks No. 16.
The Mariners also have a stable group of core players: Of the 17 who were worth at least 0.8 WAR in 2025 — MVP candidate Cal Raleigh led the way with 7.3 — all except free agent Josh Naylor and second baseman/DH Jorge Polanco are already signed to new contracts or remain under team control (Polanco has a $7 million player option that he will likely opt out from).
Both remain good fits in the lineup after strong 2025 campaigns, especially Naylor. Other than a couple of solid years from Ty France in 2021-22, first base has been a revolving door — and a problem — for the Mariners ever since John Olerud was traded more than 20 years ago. Re-signing Naylor, in part because he also provides some much-needed contact skills in a strikeout-heavy lineup, feels imperative.
It’s not an old team either. Polanco (31), J.P. Crawford (30) and Randy Arozarena (30) are the only regulars older than 28 years old, while Luis Castillo (32) is the only starting pitcher older than 28. Castillo is signed for two more seasons while the other rotation members are also under control for at least two more years — Logan Gilbert (2027), George Kirby (2028) and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller (2029). Having that kind of potential stability in the rotation is an enviable position — with Anderson likely to move fast through the minors and Ryan Sloan, a second-round pick out of high school in 2024 and now No. 43 in ESPN’s prospect rankings, flashing top-of-the-rotation stuff in his first minor league season and also capable of a quick rise to the majors.
The foundation for the team’s current success can be traced back to the 2018-19 offseason. Jerry Dipoto, the president of baseball operations, took over the top job for the Mariners after the 2015 season. They had winning seasons in 2016 and 2018, but after the second one, Dipoto was worried about the future of the organization.
“We were just coming off an 89-win season,” he told ESPN during the ALCS. “At the end of the regular season, I’ll sit down with our owners and talk through what the plan is for the year ahead. I thought the right thing to do after visiting with our front office group was just to reboot. We were a little too old, we were a little too top-heavy, and we had very little in the way of prospect capital. We weren’t going to be able to continue to beat that engine and sustain a competitive, championship-level team.”
The front office produces a flowchart of the organization each year that maps out the next six seasons, trying to estimate what those six years will look like. It didn’t look good, so the Mariners committed to a rebuild. It began with Crawford, acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies for Jean Segura (after the Phillies had first asked for Edwin Diaz, who was instead traded to the Mets), and he’s been the team’s starting shortstop ever since.
Seattle also watched Julio Rodriguez, signed as a 16-year-old in 2017, flourish and develop into an immediate star as a 21-year-old rookie in 2022. His inability to lay off sliders low and away — like the final pitch of the 2025 season — can certainly be frustrating, but he’s had two 30-30 seasons by age 24 while averaging 5.7 WAR. His 6.8 WAR in 2025 ranked fourth among AL position players.
That he’s turned into a potential Gold Glove center fielder (he’s a finalist for the award this season) is just an added bonus.
“We all thought that he was going to wind up being a corner man,” Dipoto said. “And, you know, between the ages of 19 and 21, he leaned out, turned into athletic Adonis, and unbeknownst to us, coordinated with his agent, Ulises Cabrera, and invested in an Olympic running coach. He came to spring training in 2022, and he said, ‘You think I can play center field?’ Because he made it a goal of his to be a center fielder.”
Rodriguez not only impresses on the field, but off as well, with Dipoto speaking highly of his star player’s focus, how he wants to be great and how he has studied the careers of great athletes.
“When Julio is in a quiet space, he’s a deep thinker,” Dipoto said. “He is focused on becoming as great as he can become.”
Maybe there’s even more to come — especially if Rodriguez can learn to lay off those sliders.
Along the way, with Dipoto at the helm, the Mariners were drafting pitchers — and doing a great job of developing them. In 2018, they drafted Gilbert in the first round. In 2019, it was Kirby in the first round. Miller was a fourth-round pick in 2021 while Woo was a sixth-rounder that year. They acquired closer Andres Munoz and setup man Matt Brash in two separate trades with the San Diego Padres on the same day in 2020, giving up nobody of major consequence in either deal.
Dipoto credits Scott Hunter, his scouting director since 2016, and Hunter’s staff, as well as Justin Hollander, who is now the team’s general manager. It’s rare to find rotation stalwarts such as Miller and Woo at that point in the draft — let alone two high-leverage relievers in one day.
“Every player that’s been acquired in a trade or drafted was acquired while we were here, and that makes it really special,” Dipoto said. “This didn’t happen overnight. We’ve bumped our head, we’ve stubbed our toe, we’ve put our foot in our mouth. Literally. And you learn.
“To see J.P. Crawford out there since 2019. He’s the rock. To see Julio, who we signed as a 16-year-old, standing out in center field, doing things that really are on a Hall of Fame trajectory. To see Cal Raleigh, who we drafted and developed, go out there and have maybe the best catcher season in history. To see a starting rotation that is 80 percent homegrown.”
Dipoto first signed Crawford to a long-term deal in 2022, then Rodriguez later that same summer and Raleigh before this season. With J-Rod and Raleigh signed through at least 2031, the offensive foundation in Seattle is there, with that group of prospects on the way.
The ultimate key for 2026 sits with the rotation — it struggled in the ALCS with a 6.37 ERA and averaged less than four innings per start. Its collective WAR took a big dip from 2024:
Baseball-Reference
2025: 7.8 (19th)
2024: 11.7 (10th)
FanGraphs
2025: 11.0 (14th)
2024: 14.9 (fourth)
Some of the decline can be attributed to injuries — Gilbert, Kirby and Miller each missed significant time with them — but note the home/road splits in ERA for Seattle’s starters over the past two seasons:
2025
Home: 3.30
Road: 4.67
2024
Home: 2.74
Road: 4.05
Given the quick hooks manager Dan Wilson deployed throughout the postseason, it seemed he didn’t exactly trust his starters to go deep either (Woo, the best starter in the regular season, wasn’t at full strength and pitched only out of the bullpen in the ALCS).
It makes you wonder: Does this team need an ace? Perhaps one like Tarik Skubal, who is entering his final year with the Detroit Tigers before free agency and will see trade speculation follow him all winter if the Tigers don’t sign him to an extension. The Mariners have the prospects and the pitching depth to at least make a serious inquiry into Skubal.
Emerson is likely to take over at third base in 2025 and will eventually replace Crawford at shortstop in 2027 after Crawford’s deal runs out. That means letting the popular Suarez, the third baseman who the Mariners traded for at the deadline this year, leave as a free agent. Second baseman Cole Young (No. 57 on the preseason top 100 prospect list) played 77 games as a rookie this season and will get another shot after starting well before slumping to a final line of .211/.302/.305. He hit just four home runs, but he’s only 22 years old and there might be more power to come (“You should see his BP sessions,” Dipoto said). Rookie catcher Harry Ford, No. 65 in the August update, should take over the backup duties behind Raleigh after a strong showing at Triple-A, perhaps letting Raleigh take a few more DH at-bats and rest those legs after playing all but three regular-season games for Seattle in 2025.
Everyone around the team says that the oft-mentioned good vibes with the Mariners were the real deal, with a clubhouse that got along and a good-natured group of players. The ALCS defeat was disappointing, but the Mariners will be back.
“Players come here and they fall in love,” Dipoto said. “They fall in love with the environment. It’s a beautiful ballpark. It’s the clubhouse. It’s the camaraderie. It’s the 25 teammates. That’s an awesome thing that’s been happening here for a number of years.”
The foundation has been set. Now the organization just needs to figure out how to go one — or, preferably, two — steps further.
Sports
Rising son: Gators task Spurrier Jr. to help QB
Published
16 hours agoon
October 22, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Oct 22, 2025, 01:08 PM ET
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The Florida Gators are turning to Steve Spurrier to help fix the team’s floundering offense.
Steve Spurrier Jr., anyway.
Interim coach Billy Gonzales said Wednesday the younger Spurrier, who was hired as an offensive analyst earlier this year, will be more involved with quarterback DJ Lagway when the Gators (3-4, 2-2 SEC) play No. 5 Georgia (6-1, 4-1) in Jacksonville on Nov. 1.
Gonzales will have tight ends coach/offensive coordinator Russ Callaway organize the offense alongside quarterbacks coach Ryan O’Hara in the booth. O’Hara will be on the headset calling plays to Lagway.
Spurrier, meanwhile, will be on the sideline working directly with the sophomore quarterback.
“What we’re trying to do right now is tweak a couple things so we can put our players in a better situation to go out and make plays and perform at a higher level,” said Gonzales, named the interim after Billy Napier was fired Sunday. “We all understand that’s what we need to do. So that’s the No. 1 goal for us as a coaching staff right now.”
Napier was dismissed, in large part, because he failed to get Florida’s offense on track in his four seasons. The Gators totaled a combined 50 points in losses to South Florida, LSU, Miami and Texas A&M this fall, and they rank 15th in the league in scoring.
Facing the Bulldogs without Napier could show how much of a hindrance he was to an offense that believes it has enough talent to compete in the SEC. Gonzales has made it clear he wants to open things up more and get the ball down the field to receivers.
Spurrier is a part of the plan. The 54-year-old son of a Hall of Fame player and coach who is a living legend in Gainesville, Spurrier spent the past two years at Tulsa. He also worked at Mississippi State (2020-22), Washington State (2018-19), Western Kentucky (2017) and Oklahoma (2016). Before that, he spent a decade working under his famous father at South Carolina (2005-15).
“Whenever you’re around one of the greatest offensive minds in history, it’s obviously going to rub off on you as well,” Gonzales said. “He’s been involved, but now he’s going to have more of a role because he’s going to be down there on the field with the quarterback looking in his eyes and getting a chance to talk to him and review the film that’s being relayed.
“It’s going to put us in a great situation to help DJ and the quarterbacks perform on the football field.”
Lagway has thrown for 1,513 yards, with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions, this season while playing behind a shaky offensive line. He has looked better of late as he moves closer to fully recovering from a derailed offseason that included core-muscle surgery, nagging shoulder pain and a strained calf muscle.
“It’s been a long journey, and I’m thankful for the good and the bad,” Lagway said. “God doesn’t make any mistakes. I’m just excited to see where my journey continues and how I can continue to get better.”
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