What’s changed since preseason for Texas, Clemson and the national title picture
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Bill Connelly
In Friday’s Week 4 preview I wrote that Saturday would basically close the book on the first act of the 2025 college football season. That’s basically what happened.
Some wobbly teams lost further ground and nearly eliminated themselves from playoff contention. Others seemed to right themselves with playoff hopes intact. Upstarts made statements — Indiana humiliated Illinois, Texas Tech won a Utah-as-hell game over Utah, Ole Miss once again hinted at spectacular upside and hierarchies were altered.
Next Saturday, we begin Act II with a loaded week and a pair of epic evening headliners — Oregon at Penn State and Alabama at Georgia. But before we dive into that, let’s take a look at what actually changed over the first four weeks of the season. Which races have been completely scrambled? Which haven’t really been altered all that much? And who in the world is going to step up in the Heisman race?
We have no national title favorite
One of the stories of the offseason was that it felt like the top of the sport was a bit more decentralized, that the best teams maybe weren’t quite as dominant and more teams had semi-legitimate national title shots.
As it turns out, we were underselling it. In the preseason, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gave Texas a 24.7% chance at the title, with four teams over 10% and 17 teams over 1%. Four weeks later, no one is over 12.5%, and 20 teams are at 1% or higher. Eight teams are within three points of No. 1 in FPI, and while Oregon has separated itself a bit in SP+, teams No. 2 through 14 are separated by less than a touchdown. Maybe the Ducks are indeed the best the sport has to offer this season; it’s hard to argue with a combined four-game scoreline of 203-37 (though Indiana‘s 219-33 scoreline is even more garish). But it feels like we know even less about the top of the sport now than we did four weeks ago, and that’s an incredible feeling.
Largest increase in national title odds since the preseason:
• Oregon +8.4% (to 12.3%)
• Indiana +7.3% (to 7.5%)
• Ole Miss +6.4% (to 8.5%)
• USC +4.7% (to 5.8%)
• Miami +3.3% (to 4.7%)
Hello there, Indiana. We live in a world in which Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have better title odds than Alabama, Texas or Penn State. That’s how good they’ve looked this year, and that’s the level of statement they made in Saturday night’s 63-10 humiliation of Illinois.
It started in the trenches. The Indiana running back trio of Roman Hemby, Khobie Martin and Kaelon Black combined for 36 carries, 261 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Hoosiers defense sacked Illinois’ Luke Altmyer seven times while limiting Illini RBs to 2.6 yards per carry. Illinois’ Collin Dixon sprang open for a 59-yard touchdown early in the game, but otherwise the visitors averaged 2.3 yards per play. I mentioned in my Friday preview that it was pretty confusing that Illinois was ranked 10 spots ahead of Indiana heading into the game. The Hoosiers evidently thought that was a little strange as well and did something about it.
Largest decrease in national title odds since the preseason:
• Texas -18.1% (to 6.6%)
• Penn State -5.7% (to 3.1%)
• Notre Dame -4.8% (to 0.3%)
• Alabama -3.6% (to 7.2%)
• South Carolina -2.4% (to 0.0%)
These teams landed on this list in five different ways. Texas lost to Ohio State and has watched its offense stutter and stumble all season. The Horns potentially took a solid step forward in Saturday’s 55-0 blowout of hapless Sam Houston, but they’re still only 44th in SP+, and a lot of margin for error has seeped away.
Penn State remains unbeaten but has seen its odds dinged both by a series of merely good performances against poor competition and the relative rise of upcoming opponents Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State. The road looks a little rockier.
Notre Dame lost two huge games to start the season, and while the computers still like the Irish reasonably well, they’ll have to win out and hope to get a decent strength-of-schedule boost along the way.
Alabama laid the biggest egg of Week 1 and saw its rating fall accordingly (before rebounding a bit in Weeks 2 and 3). And now six of their next seven games are against ranked opponents. That’s great for resume-building, but it’s not great for maintaining a playoff-worthy record.
South Carolina’s offense started the year in neutral, and when the Gamecocks finally got going a bit Saturday, their defense dropped the ball. They averaged 5.9 yards per play against a good Missouri defense but allowed 6.1 and fell to the Tigers 29-20. They’re now 0-2 in the SEC and 2-2 overall.
Clemson is toast
A new week, a new low. Saturday’s 34-21 home loss to Syracuse left Clemson coach Dabo Swinney without all of his typical defiance and defense mechanisms. The Tigers outgained the Orange by 70 yards with a far better success rate (48% to 36%), but big plays, a minus-2 turnover margin and an early surprise onside kick from Syracuse did them in. All of Clemson’s old bad habits (a lack of big plays, a defense less effective than the sum of its parts) have reemerged, and their typical saving graces (an efficient ground game, a masterful middle eight) haven’t saved them.
The Tigers are 1-3 for the first time since 2004. They’ve fallen behind 16-0, 13-0 and 24-7 in their past three games, and while they battled back (at least somewhat) each time, they’re giving themselves too much of a burden to overcome. They’re also 0-2 in ACC play, meaning that even if they turn it on and win out, they’ll still need some help getting to the conference title game.
This has rather predictably redefined the ACC title race. So has SMU‘s 2-2 start, even though both of the Mustangs’ losses were out of conference.
ACC preseason title odds per SP+: Clemson 18.8%, Miami 13.4%, SMU 10.4%, Louisville 8.7%, Florida State 5.8%, Virginia Tech 5.5%, NC State 5.0%
Current ACC title odds per SP+: Miami 26.3%, Georgia Tech 14.2%, Louisville 13.6%, Florida State 10.5%, Virginia 6.8%, Pitt 6.5%, SMU 5.5%, Syracuse 4.8%
Perhaps as you would have guessed, Miami now leads the way, and Louisville is rising, but Georgia Tech and Florida State have gone from also-rans to each having at least a 1-in-10 title chance. Miami knows as well as any team that the race is just beginning — the Hurricanes sure looked like favorites during a 9-0 start last season, too, especially during the first four games before their defense began to wobble. That they missed the title game altogether and lost three of their last four is a pretty clear reminder of how much work remains.
Still, they’ve done all they can through four games, especially on defense. They’ve allowed only one of four opponents to top five yards per play, and in Saturday evening’s methodical 26-7 shellacking of Florida, they hinted at having a lot of different ways to win a ballgame in 2025. They allowed just 4.7 yards per play with seven tackles for loss and eight three-and-outs. Against a dynamite Florida defense, Carson Beck threw for just 160 yards with a pick and a sack, but the duo of Mark Fletcher Jr. and Char’Mar Brown combined for 42 carries, 196 yards and 3 TDs. They had to get really physical to win, and they did so.
Other possible ACC contenders also looked the part this weekend. Florida State and Louisville beat overwhelmed MAC opponents by a combined 106-27, and unbeaten Georgia Tech handled a semi-spicy Temple team with relative ease. We’ll see who best takes advantage of Clemson’s early collapse (and who avoids a late-season collapse themselves).
Vanderbilt and Florida traded bodies (and so did Virginia and Virginia Tech)
It’s been a mixed bag for the teams atop this offseason’s returning production rankings. Clemson (No. 1 in returning production) has bombed, Arizona State (No. 2) started the season in second gear again, Illinois (No. 4) looked fine before getting crushed Saturday, and teams like Kennesaw State (No. 5), Rutgers (No. 8) and Baylor (No. 9) haven’t started this season any better than where they finished up.
Others, however, are still defending the honor of continuity. Oklahoma (No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 7) are unbeaten, Texas Tech (No. 6) looks spectacular, and holy smokes, break up the Vanderbilt Commodores (No. 3)!
Clark Lea’s team is on a revenge tour at the moment. The Commodores pummeled South Carolina by a 31-7 margin last week (a 45-point reversal), and on Saturday against a Georgia State team that upset them 36-32 last September, they were ruthless, charging to a 42-9 halftime advantage and leading by as much as 55 in a 70-21 win. That’s a 53-point reversal. They’re now up to 16th in SP+ — the only time they’ve finished higher than that in the last 50 years: 2014 (14th) — and they have a 16% chance of finishing 10-2 or better, which is the approximate bar for getting into the CFP as an SEC team.
Some schedule strength differences aside, they’ve basically traded places with Florida.
Preseason SP+: Florida 16th (6.8 avg. wins, 5.3% chance of winning the SEC), Vanderbilt 54th (5.0 wins, 1.0% chance)
Week 5 SP+: Vanderbilt 16th (8.3 avg. wins, 5.6% chance of winning the SEC), Florida 40th (3.3 wins, 0.8% chance)
Up is down, left is right, and Vandy’s Florida now.
Meanwhile, back in the ACC, two rivals have traded places too.
Preseason SP+: Virginia Tech 42nd (7.0 avg. wins), Virginia 74th (5.4)
Week 5 SP+: Virginia 42nd (8.2 avg. wins), Virginia Tech 82nd (2.9)
Tech quickly fired Brent Pry after a dire 0-3 start — interim head coach Philip Montgomery led the Hokies to a 38-6 win over Wofford on Saturday — which made it pretty easy to forget that UVA’s Tony Elliott began the season with a seat even warmer than Pry’s. He loaded up with more than 30 transfers as an attempt to turn the tide, and damned if it hasn’t worked. Newcomers like quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas), running backs J’Mari Taylor (NC Central) and Harrison Waylee (Wyoming), receiver Cam Ross (James Madison) and defensive ends Mitchell Melton (Ohio State) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) have made an immediate impact.
After Saturday’s 48-20 thumping of Stanford, the Cavaliers are 3-1 with three wins by at least 27 points. They have a 14% chance of getting to 10-2 or better, and they’re now firmly in the “dark horse ACC contenders” group. Virginia! Contender! Granted, the thing about throwing a transfer Hail Mary is, once you’ve done it, you have to keep doing it every year. But for now, Elliott has transformed the Hoos’ trajectory.
Texas Tech’s transfer gambit was transformative
With the new most famous booster in the sport, Texas Tech didn’t load up with pure quantity in the transfer portal like Virginia did. But the Red Raiders got some of the biggest names in the portal in an attempt to transform themselves into Big 12 contenders. And my goodness, has it worked early on.
Tech overwhelmed three outmanned opponents by a combined 174-35 to start the season, but Saturday’s performance in Salt Lake City was a statement of a different kind. Against a Utah Utes team that has won plenty of battles of attrition over the years, the Red Raiders let the Utes define the terms of the game — lots of punts, lots of field position maneuvering, lots of popping pads, even an injured quarterback (not exactly uncommon in Utah games) — and blew them out all the same.
The Red Raiders lost quarterback Behren Morton to injury midway through the game, and backup Will Hammond came in and went 13-for-16 for 169 yards, with two touchdowns and a 32-yard run. They made Utah quarterback Devon Dampier‘s fundamentals disintegrate over time, and he finished with two interceptions and 3.9 yards per dropback. Their expensive new defensive front dominated Utah’s extremely well-regarded offensive line for most of 60 minutes.
New coordinator Shiel Wood — an acquisition as important as any that came from the transfer portal — has done an incredible job with an incredibly new unit. Of the 12 Red Raiders with at least eight tackles thus far, eight are transfers, including edge rushers Romello Height (Georgia Tech) and David Bailey (Stanford) and safety Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State). Tech ranks 11th in points allowed per drive and ninth in yards allowed per play. They’ve finished in the defensive SP+ top 20 only once in 27 years, but they’re currently 22nd and rising.
The performance against Utah was a display of force we’re not used to seeing from this team. And it made the Red Raiders the new favorite in the Big 12 race.
Big 12 preseason title odds per SP+: Kansas State 14.4%, Utah 9.1%, Arizona State 8.8%, TCU 8.5%, BYU 6.4%, Baylor 6.0%, Colorado 5.0%
Current Big 12 title odds per SP+: Texas Tech 28.6% (up 20.7% from the preseason), Iowa State 9.4% (up 2.1%), Kansas 9.1% (up 4.7%), TCU 9.0% (up 0.5%), BYU 8.8% (up 2.4%), Arizona State 7.1% (down 1.7%), Utah 6.0% (down 3.1%), Arizona 5.2% (up 2.0%), Houston 4.9% (up 0.7%)
We can’t say that Tech is an overwhelming favorite by any means — a 29% title shot still means a 71% chance of not winning the title, after all, and TCU, BYU, Iowa State and Kansas have all shown hints of major upside. But Tech’s general approach in the new NIL world is to basically spend like a champion until you become one. And their odds of winning their first outright conference title in 70 years have more than tripled since August. That’s called return on investment right there.
It’s Memphis’ time
We’re going to Dyer’s Burgers! We’re getting a Diver at Silky O’Sullivan’s! We’re grabbing some Germantown Commissary BBQ on the way out of town! Memphis is now the Group of 5 team with the best odds of reaching the CFP!
As with Miami, of course, we’ve been here before. Ryan Silverfield’s Tigers began last season 3-0 with what felt like a massively important win over Florida State at the time, but a track-meet loss at Navy knocked them down a peg, and an early November loss at UTSA finished off their chances. Still, with Boise State getting its doors blown off by USF in Week 1, and USF (against Miami) and Tulane (against Ole Miss) doing the same in recent weeks, Memphis’ comeback win over Arkansas put the unbeaten Tigers back in prime position.
The Tigers showed some spectacular resilience against the Hogs. They allowed a wide-open 62-yard touchdown pass to Rohan Jones on the third play of the game, then fell behind 28-10 late in the first half. But they outscored Arkansas 22-3 from there, got a 64-yard touchdown run from Sutton Smith with 4:51 left, recovered a shocking Mike Washington Jr. fumble at their 7 with 1:18 remaining, then iced the game with a muscular third-down run by backup quarterback Arrington Maiden.
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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Memphis Tigers: Full Highlights
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Memphis Tigers: Full Highlights
This was a big one, both because of the obvious résumé-building effects of beating an SEC team — albeit one that seems to somehow blow games like this every week — and the fact that it basically bought them a mulligan. At this point, only two G5 teams have a greater than 16% chance of finishing the regular season 11-1 or better, per SP+, but Memphis is over 60%.
Odds of finishing the regular season 11-1 or better (Group of 5 teams)
• Memphis 60.6%
• North Texas 37.3%
• James Madison 15.7%
• UNLV 12.9%
• Fresno State 7.2%
• Navy 5.9%
• Texas State 5.2%
• Louisiana Tech 3.5%
• Boise State 2.2%
This is yet another race that is just beginning – among other things, the Tigers must still face fellow American Conference contenders USF, Tulane and Navy (albeit all at home), then maybe face the No. 2 team on the above list, a smoking hot North Texas team that just knocked off defending American champ Army at West Point.
Still, this race felt like Boise State vs. the field heading into Week 1, but after USF and Tulane both stumbled, Memphis enters Week 5 at the front of the line.
The September Heisman goes to … no one
It appears the Heisman race is every bit as blurry as the national title race.
Each week I include a “Who won the Heisman this week?” section near the end of this column, in which I dole out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). Last year at this time, Miami’s Cam Ward and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty had already asserted themselves in the top two spots, with eventual winner Travis Hunter not far behind. Two years ago, Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams led the way after four weeks. (LSU’s Jayden Daniels would soon take over.) The stars usually don’t take long to emerge from the pack.
This year, after four weeks, your points leaders are … two quarterbacks who have gone a combined 4-3. The guy in fourth place is a backup. We knew this could be a funky season with so few top teams boasting proven quarterbacks, but safe to say, we head into late September knowing very little about how this race will play out.
Before we get to the point totals, here’s this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (21-of-23 passing for 267 yards and five touchdowns, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Illinois).
2. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (16-of-19 passing for 298 yards and four touchdowns, plus 111 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Washington State).
3. Eric McAlister, TCU (8 catches for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns against SMU).
4. Dylan Riley, Boise State (19 carries for 171 yards and four touchdowns, plus 84 receiving yards and a TD against Air Force).
5. Chandler Morris, Virginia (23-of-31 passing for 380 yards and four touchdowns, plus 23 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Stanford).
6. Jayden Maiava, USC (20-of-26 passing for 234 yards and three touchdowns, plus 31 rushing yards and two TDs against Michigan State).
7. Robert Henry Jr., UTSA (21 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown, plus 76 receiving yards and a TD against Colorado State).
8. Mac Harris, USF (10 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble and a 93-yard pick-six against SC State).
9. Waymond Jordan, USC (18 carries for 157 yards, plus 25 receiving yards against Michigan State).
10. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (17-of-27 passing for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 113 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Tulane).
In his past two games, Fernando Mendoza has thrown nine touchdown passes to three incompletions. He’s gotten help from a relentless run game — four games, four 300-yard rushing totals — but I had to reward him for his near-perfection. Meanwhile, Demond Williams Jr. was nearly perfect in the Apple Cup, and current (Dylan Riley) and former (Eric McAlister) Boise State stars combined for 509 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns.
Honorable mention:
• Nnanna Anyanwu, UTSA (5 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks and a pass breakup against Colorado State).
• Cam Edwards, UConn (24 carries for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns against Ball State).
• Josh Hoover, TCU (22-of-40 passing for 379 yards, 5 TDs and an INT, plus 35 non-sack rushing yards against SMU).
• Jayden Jackson, Oklahoma (five tackles and 2.5 sacks against Auburn).
• Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (18-of-24 passing for 245 yards and a touchdown, plus 86 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Georgia State).
• Jadarian Price, Notre Dame (9 carries for 74 yards and three touchdowns, plus a 98-yard kick return score against Purdue).
• Kaidon Salter, Colorado (18-of-28 passing for 304 yards and three touchdowns, plus 100 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Wyoming).
• Kenny Tracy, Miami-Ohio (16 carries for 104 yards, plus 84 receiving yards and two touchdowns against UNLV).
Through four weeks, here are your points leaders:
1T. Taylen Green, Arkansas; Ty Simpson, Alabama (15 points)
3. Jayden Maiava, USC (12 points)
4. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (11 points)
5T. Jonah Coleman, Washington; Fernando Mendoza, Indiana; Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
8T. Rocco Becht, Iowa State; Gunner Stockton, Georgia; Vicari Swain, South Carolina; Demond Williams Jr., Washington (9 points)
This race remains an absolute mystery. Oklahoma’s John Mateer is the betting favorite, and after a dire 8-for-19 start against Auburn, he completed 16 of his final 17 passes to lead a fourth-quarter comeback. He can score some style points with his legs, too. But he’s 36th in Total QBR, and OU’s defense has been by far the bigger driver in the Sooners’ 4-0 start.
Mateer has yet to show up in one of these weekly top-10 lists. Meanwhile, five guys have made the list twice, and I wouldn’t have predicted a single one of them: Simpson, Green, Maiava, Chambliss and Robert Henry Jr.
Honestly, I’d probably give the September Heisman to Maiava at this point. He’s No. 1 in Total QBR, he’s averaging a jaw-dropping 13.4 yards per dropback — only Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos can top him there, and Castellanos attempts far fewer passes — and USC’s offense has been absolutely dynamite during a 4-0 start.
I’d point out that Maiava is only the No. 11 betting favorite at the moment (+2200) and there might be some value there, but September Heismans don’t have the best track record of winning the actual Heisman, do they? I’ll do him a favor and award no September Heisman instead.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings.
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
• Missouri State (up 6.9 adjusted points per game, ranking rose from 129th to 122nd)
• Delaware (up 6.5 points, ranking rose from 118th to 93rd)
• Vanderbilt (up 5.8 points, ranking rose from 28th to 16th)
• Utah State (up 5.8 points, ranking rose from 99th to 80th)
• Mississippi State (up 5.1 points, ranking rose from 47th to 29th)
With respect to the two rising FBS newcomers (Missouri State and Delaware) and a delightful Utah State team that has lost only to Texas A&M, we’re going to focus on the other two teams here. Vanderbilt is on a revenge tour at the moment, as mentioned above, and Mississippi State is one of eight teams to have overachieved against SP+ projections in every game this season. (The others: Arizona, Bowling Green, Florida State, Houston, Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State and Old Dominion.) The Bulldogs are 4-0 for the first since 2014, and after collapsing to 88th in SP+ last season, they’ve jumped back into the top 30. They remain under the radar in a loaded SEC, but upcoming games against Tennessee, Texas A&M, Florida and Texas will give them massive opportunities to prove themselves.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
• South Alabama (down 8.2 adjusted points per game, ranking fell from 78th to 110th)
• California (down 7.4 points, ranking fell from 54th to 72nd)
• West Virginia (down 7.2 points, ranking fell from 55th to 75th)
• Tulane (down 6.8 points, ranking fell from 49th to 66th)
• Illinois (down 5.6 points, ranking fell from 18th to 36th)
There were quite a few disappointing performances in Week 4, and these five teams certainly all did their share in that regard. But the two biggest eggs of the week, to me, were laid by Illinois and Cal. Illinois was a slight projected underdog against Indiana, and Cal was a nearly 10-point favorite against San Diego State. They lost by a combined 97-10.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
3. North Texas 45, Army 38 (OT).
We’ll bunch the three of these together since, in about a 10-minute span early Saturday afternoon, all three featured catastrophic lost fumbles. The college football was almost too college football-like. At this point, Arkansas is going to have its own “devastating late turnovers” section in my year-end Top 100 Games of the Season list. For the second straight week, the Razorbacks were driving for the potential winning points when they lost a fumble. This one, from poor Mike Washington Jr., allowed Memphis to run the clock out after a game with three long touchdowns and an 18-point Memphis comeback.
Oof, Hogs
Meanwhile, UNLV somehow remained unbeaten despite trailing by 14 on three separate occasions and leading for just 15 seconds. As Miami’s Kenny Tracy was charging inside the UNLV 20 to set up the potential game-winning field goal, he lost the ball. UNLV recovered and drove 78 yards in 2:17 to set up Ramon Villela‘s 23-yarder for the win.
At West Point, Army also unleashed a fierce comeback after trailing 21-0 in the first quarter and 38-28 with less than three minutes left. Makenzie McGill II fumbled as UNT was trying to run out the clock, and Army sent the game to OT with a Dawson Jones field goal. But the Mean Green prevailed with a Caleb Hawkins touchdown and a stop in OT.
4. FCS: Campbell 50, Bryant 48 (2OT). FCS gave us quite a bit of overtime nonsense Saturday. In search of its first win of the season, Campbell tied the game with 2:58 left on a 77-yard Kamden Sixkiller-to-Randall King touchdown, then took the lead on another Sixkiller-to-King strike 103 seconds later. Bryant struck back with a 35-yard Aldrich Doe touchdown catch with six seconds left but played for OT instead of going for two points and the win. And in the second OT, they failed on a 2-pointer and Campbell survived.
5. FCS: No. 4 Illinois State 38, North Alabama 36 (2OT). A comfortable home favorite, ISU bolted to a 17-0 lead just six minutes in and led by 10 heading into the fourth quarter, but Ari Patu‘s 25-yard touchdown strike to KJ Fields with 33 seconds left sent the game to overtime. In the second OT, Daniel Sobkowicz caught his second touchdown pass and scored the 2-point conversion, and ISU’s defense stopped UNA’s 2-pointer to salvage the win.
6. No. 11 Oklahoma 24, No. 22 Auburn 17. Killer environment? Check. Wild number of sacks? Check. OU took former Sooner Jackson Arnold down 10 times but still trailed with five minutes left until John Mateer‘s short touchdown run and a safety-sack sealed the deal.
7. Arizona State 27, Baylor 24. Neither team led by more than seven in this one — Jordyn Tyson‘s 19-yard touchdown gave ASU a 24-17 lead with 5:29 left, but Baylor quickly struck back with a 33-yard score from Michael Trigg. A pair of third-down penalties helped ASU inch down the field on its final drive, however, and Jesus Gomez knocked in a 43-yard FG at the buzzer.
8. Troy 21, Buffalo 17. This one seemed pretty straight-forward for the home team: Buffalo took a 17-0 lead early in the fourth quarter. But Troy scored on drives of 75, 66 and 50 yards, and Tae Meadows‘ 20-yard touchdown with 45 seconds left sealed a stunning comeback win.
9. Division II: New Mexico Highlands 48, South Dakota Mines 42 (OT). Do you like track meets and wild comebacks? In front of 3,152 in Las Vegas, New Mexico, these teams combined for 1,063 yards and five TDs of 40-plus yards. That includes a 96-yard fumble return for Mines and a 99-yard score on the ensuing kickoff. S.D. Mines scored three times in the final 13 minutes to erase a 42-21 deficit and force overtime, but the Hardrockers (Hardrockers!) were stuffed on fourth-and-goal in OT, and Tevita Valeti’s 1-yard touchdown sealed a wild Cowboys win.
10. Division III: Coast Guard 92, Nichols 60. OK, but do you like track meets?? In front of 3,054 in New London, Connecticut, Coast Guard scored 64 points in the first half but kept having to score to assure an easy win in a game that featured nine touchdowns of at least 38 yards and 1,412 total yards. My goodness!
Honorable mention:
• D-III: Calvin 40, Heidelberg 37 (OT)
• Eastern Michigan 34, Louisiana 31
• No. 21 Michigan 30, Nebraska 27
• NAIA: Peru State 64, Central Methodist 43
• FCS: San Diego 42, Princeton 35
• San José State 31, Idaho 28
• UConn 31, Ball State 25
• FCS: No. 24 Youngstown State 31, Towson 28
Oh, and if you were curious about the Ferris State-Rio Grande game mentioned in Friday’s preview column, in which Ferris State was a projected 97.2-point favorite per SP+, the Bulldogs led 35-0 after 16 minutes before Tony Annese seemed to call off his dogs a bit. It finished a mere 76-0, and the only reason it probably even got that bad was that the Dawgs scored on a kick return, fumble return, interception return and missed field goal return.
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
Sports
‘You don’t want to have the same drip’: How a Houston Christian receiver became a shoe artist to the stars
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Max Olson
After Texas A&M‘s season-opening win over UTSA in August, Deacon Stanfield made his way down to a tunnel at Kyle Field. KC Concepcion met him there.
The Aggies’ new star receiver was looking to do a handoff. He passed two pairs of his team-issued Adidas cleats to Stanfield. In exchange, the artist promised he would hook him up with more of his finest work.
Custom cleats are a burgeoning business in the era of name, image and likeness, as college football players invest their own money into upgrading their in-game attire. When Concepcion and his Aggie teammates Rueben Owens II, Terry Bussey and Will Lee III are looking for something unique during their 10-0 start, they hit up their shoe guy in Houston.
“That’s the whole thing: You don’t want to look like everyone else, right?” Stanfield said. “You don’t want to have the same drip as the guy next to you.”
Stanfield has worked with Travis Hunter, Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith. He’s painted cleats worn by pros such as Travis Etienne Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Carlos Correa. He’s even painted custom Nikes for Caitlin Clark. He’s been customizing shoes for six years — and he just turned 20. What started as a high school hobby has evolved into a successful side hustle. When he’s not spray-painting kicks, he’s playing wide receiver and taking classes at Houston Christian. His teammates at HCU call him “The Cobbler.” Stanfield tries to slow down orders in the fall to focus on being an FCS student-athlete, but he’ll make exceptions when high-profile athletes pop up in his Instagram DMs.
He started this passion in 2019. His art teacher in junior high assigned the class to paint something on an unconventional canvas, so Stanfield tried a pair of shoes. As he watched more tutorial videos on YouTube about the customizing process, he wanted to keep learning and saved up to buy an airbrush and compressor.
“A lot of it was self-taught,” Stanfield said. “I just started, and I ruined so many shoes in the process, just messing with my own shoes.”
His father, Dusty, works in athlete marketing and helped get this hobby kick started with his connections. Deacon painted custom creations for NFL players Trayveon Williams and Case Keenum in 2020, but his first pair that garnered attention were “Duck Hunt”-themed Nike cleats for Hunter Renfrow, a pixelated tribute to the classic NES video game.
“I think with phones and devices taking up so much of their free time, it seems like kids these days are kind of delayed in finding their passion and finding what they really want to do,” Dusty Stanfield said. “So for him to figure that out, it’s something as a parent that’s very fulfilling to see.”
Deacon got opportunities to customize cleats for Etienne and several NFL players as part of the league’s “My Cause My Cleats” campaign. He has also partnered with Panini, which has flown him in for Super Bowl week each of the past three years to create custom cleats for pro athletes at their hospitality suite. Every shoe helps as Stanfield tries to grow his brand and business.
He put on a brave face in a surreal setting for a teen, joking that his “whole body was shaking” as he handed custom Nike sneakers to Eli Manning before this year’s Super Bowl in New Orleans. But nothing compared to the nerves of prepping a pair of Nike Blazer Mid ’77 for Clark to commemorate her Rookie of the Year season with the Indiana Fever.
“She is literally the definition of aura,” Stanfield said. “When she walked in, it felt like the entire room stopped talking and looked at her. When she opened them, she looked over at me and was like, ‘These are so cool. Did you make these?’ It was definitely one of the coolest experiences of my life.”
This is an enterprise that wouldn’t have been possible before the NIL era arrived and modernized college athletics in 2021. It’s run by an active college athlete and supported by athletes who finally have disposable income to spend. Stanfield’s timing couldn’t have been better. And this fall, the Aggies are keeping him busy.
Stanfield did custom sets of maroon, black and white cleats for Bussey and former A&M quarterback Conner Weigman last year and was quickly deluged with more orders. He came up with black Louis Vuitton-themed cleats for linebacker Taurean York and green camouflage cleats for Weigman.
Now he’s producing new shoes for Concepcion, the SEC’s third-leading receiver, every game this season. First it was black cleats with Chrome Hearts brand crosses and then gray Louis Vuitton cleats for the road win at Notre Dame. Stanfield got especially creative for the Aggies’ throwback uniform against Florida, painting an A-10 ‘Warthog’ shark mouth on gold cleats for Concepcion.
It’s not easy to run an airbrush-heavy business out of his Houston Christian dorm room, so Stanfield makes the 30-minute drive home to Fulshear, Texas, on Thursdays, his day off from football, to get his custom orders done out of his garage workspace.
Last Thursday, he put in another marathon session in his workshop customizing four pairs of cleats over 11 hours. Concepcion, Owens, Bussey and Lee got them back just in time to wear them for the No. 3 Aggies’ comeback win over South Carolina.
“I think it’s super cool that Coach [Mike] Elko is relaxed about that,” Stanfield said. “Some coaches won’t let their players wear anything other than black or white.”
HCU coaches have been no less supportive of Stanfield’s entrepreneurship ever since he joined the program last year. The 6-foot, 160-pound scholarship receiver is on the Huskies’ two-deep and travel squad this season and has played six games as a redshirt freshman.
He’s learned how to design mock-ups on his tablet or phone because the prep phase for customizing a shoe can be lengthy.
Stanfield starts by sanding down the shoe’s exterior and wiping it with acetone to strip the original factory finish, taping the soles and areas he won’t paint. Typically, he says, this can take up to two hours — if you’re doing it right.
Once he’s working with a clean canvas, it’s time to airbrush several layers of acrylic leather paint while often incorporating stencils. Stanfield has been doing this long enough that he can mix paint and make Aggie maroon by eyeballing it. After he’s done hand-painting and carefully detailing, the shoes get sprayed with a protective matte finish.
Stanfield can scroll through his camera roll and point to hundreds of cleats and shoes he’s customized, but nothing has gone viral such as the pair he customized for Alabama‘s Ryan Williams last season. Williams ordered a custom pair from him during his senior year of high school and asked for another with his “Hollywood” nickname painted across Nikes last season. After Williams’ breakout performance to beat Georgia, Stanfield did one more for him. Williams gave him creative license to paint whatever he liked.
Stanfield hand-painted a portrait of Williams with red braids over black Nikes. He even recreated the “SC Top 10” chain with gold and silver rhinestones. The pair took him at least 10 hours over several days to produce as he carefully painted the portrait, placed the stones and perfected the details.
Stanfield shared the shoes on his Instagram account, and Williams reposted them after Stanfield had gone to bed. Stanfield’s jaw dropped the next day when SportsCenter’s Instagram account shared his work with the world, in a post that got more than 113,000 likes.
Stanfield typically charges between $100 and $350 for these custom jobs depending on the difficulty.
Some players ship him their team-issued shoes. Others ask him to find a particular pair and add it to the bill. He’s not charging as much as many of the more established creators in this niche industry, mostly because he wants to stay affordable for high school and college athletes.
Keisean Henderson, ESPN’s No. 1 ranked quarterback recruit in the 2026 class, has ordered plenty from Stanfield, including a pair this offseason with his favorite Davy Crockett racoon-skin cap painted on the sides. The Houston commit collaborated with him again this summer on a black Louis Vuitton-style pair covered in UH emojis.
“He is one of one,” Henderson told ESPN. “He can take a thought from your mind and make it reality.”
This is how Stanfield is trying to get his foot in the door in a competitive business by connecting with the next big stars before they blow up. Stanfield did three pairs of custom cleats for Ohio State superstar Jeremiah Smith during his 7-on-7 days with South Florida Express. He would love to work with Smith again, but the Buckeyes don’t wear custom cleats during games.
Some connections endure for years and some pop up in an instant with an unexpected DM. Last summer, he was scrolling through his message requests on Instagram and spotted one from Leanna De La Fuente. She was inquiring about pricing and was looking to surprise her fiancé. When he clicked on her profile and realized she was referring to Hunter, he was astonished and immediately replied.
Stanfield shipped custom black cleats that featured Hunter’s Instagram handle. De La Fuente sent him a thank you video from the two-way star, who promised he would wear them for a game. The artist waited all season, wondering when Colorado‘s Heisman Trophy winner might break them out. Hunter saved the pair for his finale with the Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl against BYU.
College players who can afford customs are typically wearing them for only one game to complement a specific uniform combination, while high schoolers tend to wear them all season. Henderson, the No. 4 recruit in this year’s SC Next 300, said he currently has four pairs of customs from Stanfield with more to come.
“You can stand out and express yourself without saying words,” Henderson said. “The game of football is made for you to stay in uniform. When I see the opportunity to make it my own, I try my best to showcase how I feel from my cleats.”
Back at Houston Christian, Stanfield tries his best to juggle all his responsibilities. He wore his own work, a pair of orange Louis Vuitton cleats, throughout spring and fall practice with the Huskies. Bachtel credits offensive coordinator Mike Besbitt for starting “The Cobbler” nickname in the spring, and it stuck with teammates. He’s done color swap customs for a few of them, but they know he’s already plenty busy at this time of year. The head coach would like a pair someday, too.
“I told him, ‘Look, I’m not as flashy as you. I don’t need all the Louis Vuitton and all that,'” Bachtel joked. “Just give me something we can wear in recruiting and maybe on the sidelines.”
As much as he would like to someday go full time in shoe customizing, Stanfield says he’s loving his experience in college football and not looking to fast-forward past it. Everybody tells him he’ll miss it when it’s over, so he’s trying to enjoy it. He’ll be back open for business in the offseason and eager to see what creative requests come next.
“I’ve never really thought of it as time-consuming,” Stanfield said, “because it’s a job that doesn’t feel like a job.”
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