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While Britain and America were engrossed in the pageantry and diplomacy of a US presidential visit last week, another event pretty much went unnoticed in most Western capitals – and it could have a profound impact on geopolitics.

The “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” was signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 17 September.

Seen as an “Islamic NATO” in the making, at its core is the clause that “any aggression against either country, shall be considered an aggression against both”.

Article 5 of NATO states the same, and is the cornerstone principle of collective defence that binds members of the alliance.

If an ally is attacked, each member will consider it an attack against them all and will take action to help. This clause has often been cited since Putin’s war on Ukraine.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a longstanding relationship, with Pakistan willing to defend the holy sites of Mecca and Medina as Shia Iran threatened the Kingdom.

The new pact between Sunni Saudi Arabia, a country considered the heart of the Islamic world, with Pakistan – the only Muslim nuclear nation – is bound to set a new order.

Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Asif said “the deterrence that we get from nuclear weapons, and what we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available to Saudi Arabia according to this agreement”.

Pakistan has also not ruled out other Islamic nations joining the coalition and its deputy prime minister, Ishaq Dar, said “other countries have also expressed a desire for similar arrangements”.

Pakistan has not ruled out other Islamic nations joining the coalition. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pakistan has not ruled out other Islamic nations joining the coalition. Pic: Reuters

The signing took place a week after Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas officials discussing US ceasefire proposals in a Qatari government complex.

The unprecedented attack in Doha has shattered the illusion of American reliability in the region for rich Arab and Gulf countries.

Israel’s menacing military strikes – in Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Qatar – have precipitated the idea of a protective nuclear umbrella of their own.

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Impact of Israel’s strike against Hamas in Qatar

Major blow for India

A cash-strapped, politically unstable and quasi-military Pakistan, willing to share its weapons, is a win-win for both countries.

It’s a coup for Pakistan because a client like Saudi Arabia puts it centre stage in the Islamic world, with its credibility sky high and the potential for more patrons.

It has also dealt a major diplomatic and security blow to nuclear arch rival India, against whom it’s fought multiple wars and clashes.

Pakistani navy personnel march at a military parade in Islamabad in March 2019. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pakistani navy personnel march at a military parade in Islamabad in March 2019. Pic: Reuters

Relations between Saudi Arabia, Gulf nations and India have improved considerably over the years.

But the concern is, would the pact automatically bring these nations into Pakistan’s corner if there was a conflict with India.

After the deadly clashes between the two countries in May, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said “we have merely suspended our retaliatory actions against Pakistan’s terrorist and military targets for now”.

India’s foreign ministry said it would “study the implications for national security and regional and global stability”.

It added: “India and Saudi Arabia have a wide-ranging strategic partnership which has deepened considerably in the last few years. We expect that this strategic partnership will keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities.”

However, there will be worry and concern in the Indian establishment as its nemesis has prized open a door which they hope does not become a chasm.

The deal will cause concern for Narendra Modi and the Indian establishment. Pic: PA
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The deal will cause concern for Narendra Modi and the Indian establishment. Pic: PA

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The Indians will be hoping the pact remains one of just political solidarity and doesn’t transform into unconditional war guarantees.

India’s diplomacy faces huge challenges; it has been singled out by President Trump for a punitive 25% extra tariff for buying discounted Russian oil, taking the total to 50%, one of the highest in the world.

Relations with China have also been very difficult over the years, while ties between Pakistan and China have strengthened into an all-weather friendship.

The Saudi-Pakistan deal aims to expand military cooperation, joint exercises and intelligence sharing to counter threats, terrorism and cross-border insurgencies.

It also covers the transfer of technology and co-production of military equipment between the countries.

This pact could change the course of the Middle East as Pakistan’s 170 warheads provide the Kingdom with a deterrent that might later expand to cover other countries – an Islamic NATO with potential to reshape the world.

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Trump achieves something remarkable, but will his ‘goldfish’ attention span stay the course?

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Trump achieves something remarkable, but will his 'goldfish' attention span stay the course?

Two things can be true at the same time – an adage so apt for the past day. 

This was the Trump show. There’s no question about that. It was a show called by him, pulled off for him, attended by leaders who had no other choice and all because he craves the ego boost.

Gaza deal signed – as it happened

But the day was also an unquestionable and game-changing geopolitical achievement.

World leaders, including Trump and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pose for a family photo. Pic: Reuters
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World leaders, including Trump and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pose for a family photo. Pic: Reuters

Trump stopped the war, he stopped the killing, he forced Hamas to release all the hostages, he demanded Israel to free prisoners held without any judicial process, he enabled aid to be delivered to Gaza, and he committed everyone to a roadmap, of sorts, ahead.

He did all that and more.

He also made the Israel-Palestine conflict, which the world has ignored for decades, a cause that European and Middle Eastern nations are now committed to invest in. No one, it seems, can ignore Trump.

Love him or loathe him, those are remarkable achievements.

‘Focus of a goldfish’

The key question now is – will he stay the course?

One person central to the negotiations which have led us to this point said to me last week that Trump has the “focus of a goldfish”.

Benjamin Netanyahu applauds while Trump addresses the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Pic: Reuters
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Benjamin Netanyahu applauds while Trump addresses the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Pic: Reuters

It’s true that he tends to have a short attention span. If things are not going his way, and it looks likely that he won’t turn out to be the winner, he quickly moves on and blames someone else.

So, is there a danger of that with this? Let’s check in on it all six months from now (I am willing to be proved wrong – the Trump-show is truly hard to chart), but my judgement right now is that he will stay the course with this one for several reasons.

First, precisely because of the show he has created around this. Surely, he won’t want it all to fall apart now?

He has invested so much personal reputation in all this, I’d argue that even he wouldn’t want to drop it, even when the going gets tough – which it will.

Second, the Abraham Accords. They represented his signature foreign policy achievement in his first term – the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Muslim world.

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How a huge day for the Middle East unfolded

Back in his first presidency, he tried to push the accords through without solving the Palestinian question. It didn’t work.

This time, he’s grasped the nettle. Now he wants to bring it all together in a grand bargain. He’s doing it for peace but also, of course, for the business opportunities – to help “make America great again”.

Peace – and prosperity – in the Middle East is good for America. It’s also good for Trump Inc. He and his family are going to get even richer from a prosperous Middle East.

Read more:
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Then there is the Nobel Peace Prize. He didn’t win it this year. He was never going to – nominations had to be in by January.

But next year he really could win – especially if he solves the Ukraine challenge too.

If he could bring his coexistence and unity vibe to his own country – rather than stoking the division – he may stand an even greater chance of winning.

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French PM Sebastien Lecornu shelves Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform in bid for political survival

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French PM Sebastien Lecornu shelves Emmanuel Macron's pension reform in bid for political survival

France’s reappointed prime minister has offered to suspend controversial reforms to the country’s pension system, days after returning to the top role.

Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform, which gradually raises the age at which a worker can retire on a full pension from 62 to 64, was forced through without a vote in parliament after weeks of street protests in 2023.

Sebastien Lecornu said on Tuesday he would postpone the introduction of the scheme, one of Mr Macron’s main economic policies, until after the 2027 presidential election.

With two no-confidence votes in parliament this week, Mr Lecornu had little choice but to make the offer to secure the support of left-wing MPs who demanded it as the price of their support for his survival.

Mr Lecornu in parliament on Tuesday. Pic: Reuters
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Mr Lecornu in parliament on Tuesday. Pic: Reuters

The prime minister will hope it is enough to get a slimmed-down 2026 budget passed at a time when France’s public finances are in a mess.

It will be seen as a blow to Mr Macron, leaving him with little in the way of domestic achievements after eight years in office. But it reflects the reality that giving ground on the landmark measure was the only way to ensure the survival of his sixth prime minister in under two years.

Mr Lecornu told MPs he will “suspend the 2023 pension reform until the presidential election”.

“No increase in the retirement age will take place from now until January 2028,” he added.

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The move will cost the Treasury €400m (£349m) in 2026, and €1.8bn (£1.5bn) the year after, he said, warning it couldn’t just be added to the deficit and “must therefore be financially offset, including through savings measures”.

Mr Lecornu, 39, was reappointed as prime minister by Mr Macron on Friday, four days after he resigned from the role just hours after naming his cabinet – and after political rivals threatened to topple his government.

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French PM returns to role days after quitting

On re-taking office, he pledged to “put an end to this political crisis, which is exasperating the French people, and to this instability, which is bad for France’s image and its interests”.

Economists in Europe have previously warned that France – the EU’s second-largest economy – faces a Greek-style debt crisis, with its deficit at 5.4%.

Mr Lecornu is hoping to bring that down to 4.7% with an overall package of cuts totalling €30bn (£26bn), but his plans were dismissed as wishful thinking by France’s independent fiscal watchdog.

Mr Macron has burned through five prime ministers in less than two years, but has so far refused to call another election or resign.

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Freed Palestinian prisoner alleges torture and deaths in Israeli detention

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Freed Palestinian prisoner alleges torture and deaths in Israeli detention

A freed Palestinian prisoner, one of about 1,700 detainees from Gaza who had been held by Israel without charge, has described scenes of systematic torture, humiliation and death inside Israeli detention.

Akram al Basyouni, 45, from northern Gaza, says he was detained on 10 December 2023 at a shelter school in Jabalia and spent nearly two years in custody, including at the Sde Teiman military base.

“Many of our fellow prisoners were beaten to the point of death,” he told Sky News. “When we cried out to the guards for help, they would answer coldly, ‘Let him die’. Five minutes later they would take the body away, wrap it in a bag, and shut the door.”

Al Basyouni said detainees were routinely tortured, beaten with batons and fists, attacked by dogs and gassed during what guards called a “reception ceremony”.

“They beat us so savagely our ribs were shattered. They poured boiling water over the faces and backs of young men until their skin peeled away. We sat on cold metal floors for days, punished even for asking for help.”

Sky News has contacted the Israel Prison Service (IPS) and the Israel Defense Forces for comment but has not yet received a response.

Al Basyouni claimed prisoners were forced to remain on their knees for long hours, deprived of clothing and blankets, and subjected to religious and psychological abuse.

More on Gaza

“They cursed the Prophet, tore up the Koran in front of us, and insulted our mothers and sisters in the foulest language,” he said. “They told us our families were dead. ‘There is no Gaza,’ they said. ‘We killed your children.'”

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Palestinian prisoners released

Palestinians freed from Israeli prisons in past exchanges have reported frequent beatings, insufficient food and deprivation of medical care.

A 2024 UN report said that since 7 October 2023, thousands of Palestinians have been held arbitrarily and incommunicado by Israel, often shackled, subject to torture and deprived of food, water, sleep and medical care.

Israel has maintained that it follows international and domestic legal standards for the treatment of prisoners and that any prison personnel violations are investigated.

Its National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who oversees the country’s prisons, has on multiple occasions boasted about making conditions for Palestinians as harsh as possible while remaining within the law.

Al Basyouni claimed many detainees, including doctors, died from beatings or medical neglect.

“I heard about Dr Adnan al-Bursh, may God have mercy on him,” he said. “He was struck in the chest by a prison guard, over his heart. He lost consciousness immediately and died five minutes later.”

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Hamas official says Blair isn’t welcome in Gaza role

Sky News’ own investigation found that Dr al-Bursh, one of Gaza’s most respected surgeons, died after being tortured in Israeli custody, sustaining broken ribs and severe injuries while being held at Ofer Prison.

Al Basyouni said he also met Dr Hossam Abu Safiya at Ofer and heard that Dr Akram Abu Ouda had been “subjected to severe and repeated torture.”

“Even the doctors were beaten and denied treatment,” he said. “Many reached the brink of death.”

In response to our investigation into Dr al-Bursh’s death, a spokesman for the Israel Prison Service said at the time: “We are not aware of the claims you described and as far as we know, no such events have occurred under IPS responsibility.”

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