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Nigel Farage is on course to be prime minister, according to a seat-by-seat YouGov poll which reveals the scale of Conservative implosion.

The YouGov MRP polling projection, based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks, suggests an election held tomorrow would see a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 311 of the 650 seats, 15 seats short of the formal winning line of 326.

In practice, once the Speaker and absent Sinn Fein MPs are accounted for, it would be all but impossible for anyone other than Mr Farage to secure the largest number of MP backers and thus become prime minister.

Reform UK has improved its position since the last YouGov MRP in June, when it was 55 seats short of a majority. The projection suggests 306 Reform gains, up from their current seat tally of five, which would be the biggest increase in any election in British history.

The projection of Commons seats in Great Britain puts Reform UK on 311 seats, Labour on 144 seats, Liberal Democrats on 78 seats, Conservatives on 45 seats, SNP on 37 seats and Greens on seven seats, with Plaid on six seats and three seats won by left-wing challengers.

Barely a year after Keir Starmer won a landslide, this result would see Labour lose around two-thirds of their existing seats, down from the 411 they won in last year’s general election.

This is significantly worse than the party’s 2019 result under Jeremy Corbyn when the party won 202 seats and is their lowest tally since 1931.

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More than a third of Labour’s remaining seats would be in London, making them more reliant on London than any other British party is on any other nation or region.

Among the big-name casualties would be Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner.

The Conservatives would fare even worse, pushed potentially to the brink of extinction. They would lose two-thirds of their 121 seats won last year – which was already their worst result in their 190-year modern history – reducing their tally to 45 seats.

And even further back, it would be worse than any result they’ve ever suffered, all the way back to the formation of their predecessor party, the Tory Party in the 1670s.

This would put the Tories in fourth place behind the Lib Dems, and the first time they have not been one of the two biggest parties.

The Conservatives would be wiped out in both Wales and the South West, a heartland as recently as 2015, and left with just six seats in the north and one in Scotland.

Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride could be among the casualties. Almost 60% of their current front bench would lose their seats.

In theory, the Conservatives could line up with Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, progressive left and Northern Ireland MPs to vote down a Farage premiership, but this is highly unlikely in practice. If they abstain, Mr Farage would still have enough MPs to become PM.

The projections suggest national vote shares of 27% for Reform UK, 21% for Labour, 17% for Conservative, 15% for Lib Dems, 11% for Greens, 3% for SNP and 1% for Plaid.

Some smaller, more recent YouGov polls have put the Reform UK total even higher.

The scale of the threat to Labour from Reform UK is laid bare in this MRP projection.

Three-quarters of Reform UK’s seats would come directly from Labour, while more than half of Labour seats would go directly to Reform UK.

The North East of England would be Reform’s strongest area with 21 of the 27 seats, followed by the East Midlands and Wales. Reform’s weakest areas are London, where they would have six out of 75 and Scotland where they would win five out of 57.

Scotland would see a resurgence of the SNP, an increase of 28 seats to 37 seats, with Labour left with nine seats.

This does not suggest Scottish Labour will be able to win control of the Scottish parliament at next year’s elections.

In Wales, Reform would have 23 seats, against Plaid’s six and Labour’s three, which implies there’s a strong likelihood of Labour losing control in the Welsh Sennedd elections next May.

Voters in Great Britain were asked by YouGov how they would vote in the event of an election tomorrow, even though one is not anticipated for three or four years. MRP projections come with a significant margin of error.

The central projection is that Reform UK gets 311 seats, but this could be as high as 342, which would deliver an overall majority, or as low as 271. The Tories could have as few as 28 seats and as high as 68 seats. Labour’s range could be from 118 to 185.

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

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Fresh weather warnings issued as parts of UK threatened with blizzard conditions

Fresh yellow weather warnings for ice have been issued for many areas of the UK, as some areas are threatened with blizzard conditions on Thursday.

An amber warning for snow – covering northeast England, including Scarborough, Whitby and parts south of Middlesbrough – is in force until 9pm on Thursday.

UK weather latest: Blizzard warning for amber area

The Met Office said there could be “significant snow accumulations” over the North York Moors and parts of the Yorkshire Wolds with up to 25cm (10ins) on hills above 100m (330ft).

“Gusty winds, giving occasional blizzard conditions, and perhaps a few lightning strikes, may accompany some of the showers, posing as additional hazards,” the warning added.

Some A-roads in North Yorkshire were reported to be “gridlocked”, according to Shingi Mararike, Sky News’ North of England correspondent, but he added gritters are out to deal with the bad weather.

A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA
Image:
A car overturns on the A19 near Sunderland. Pic: PA

The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA
Image:
The Glenshane Pass in County Londonderry has been coated in snow. Pic: PA

Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA
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Snowy conditions near Skipsea in the the East Riding of Yorkshire. Pic: PA

Snow ploughs have been hard at work on the North York Moors and a thick coat of snow is covering the A169 between Pickering and Whitby.

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Dozens of schools have been closed in North Yorkshire and Scotland.

Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office
Image:
Amber warning for snow in parts of northeast England and south of Middlesbrough until 9pm on Thursday. Pic: Met Office

A number of yellow warnings are also in force for snow and/or ice across large parts of Britain.

In many of the warnings issued by the Met Office, there are concerns that where “showers persist and/or snow partially thaws and then refreezes overnight, this will bring a risk of ice”.

Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office
Image:
Weather warnings in the UK for snow and ice across various regions on Thursday (left) and ice on Friday (right). Pic: Met Office

Jo Wheeler, Sky’s weather presenter, said clear skies will allow temperatures to tumble again as Thursday night approaches, “with an early and severe frost expected, and the associated risk of icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements”.

Coldest night so far

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday was the coldest of the season so far, according to the Met Office.

Temperatures dropped as low as -6.6C (20F) in Benson, Oxfordshire. There were two -6.4C (20F) temperatures recorded in Wales (in Sennybrigde) and in Scotland (Dundreggan).

While in Northern Ireland it fell to -2.8C (27F) in Altnahinch Filters.

Cold health alerts in force

As well as the one amber weather warning covering parts of the UK, there are two amber health alerts in place in three areas of England from the UK’s Health Security Agency.

An amber health alert is designed to prepare health services, including for the potential for a rise in deaths among the over-65s and people with health conditions.

The alerts are in effect in North East and North West England, along with the Yorkshire and the Humber region until 8am on 22 November.

Yellow cold-health alerts are in place for the rest of England and also expire at the same point.

Walk like a penguin

NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGGC) is recommending that people should walk like penguins to avoid dangerous slips and trips on icy surfaces.

The technique, which went viral in previous winters, is back for 2025 as part of the health board’s winter campaign.

Laura Halcrow, falls prevention lead at NHSGGC, said: “It might look funny, but waddling really works. A slip on ice can cause painful injuries and even hospital stays, especially for older people.”

Turning wet and windy

Sky’s weather presenter, Jo Wheeler, adds that the forecast is set to change this weekend.

“We’ll trade the cold sunshine and wintry showers for wet and windy conditions with rain turning heavy as it crosses the country on Saturday.”

“The British weather, fickle as always, looks like delivering a brief change to this milder westerly flow followed by an equally quick change back to a chilly northerly flow.”

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Liam McDermid: Man who used metal detector in hunt for hidden gun in Edinburgh during gang war jailed

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Liam McDermid: Man who used metal detector in hunt for hidden gun in Edinburgh during gang war jailed

A man who used a metal detector to try to find a hidden handgun has been jailed for more than six years.

Liam McDermid, 25, admitted his involvement in serious organised crime after being spotted by a police surveillance operation while searching for the firearm in undergrowth in Edinburgh.

This is the first prosecution under Police Scotland’s Operation Portaledge, which was launched in response to gang violence that blighted the east and west of the country earlier this year.

Judge Lord Arthurson told McDermid only a “significant custodial disposal” would be appropriate in the case.

In his sentencing statement, the judge said: “The public interest in suppressing and punishing such serious organised criminal activity is extremely high, particularly so when, as in this case, lethal weapons are involved.

“The citizens of Edinburgh have been understandably and indeed rightly concerned by the recent upsurge in such criminality in their communities.

“In these exceptional circumstances, there requires accordingly, in my view, to be some degree of exemplary component in respect of the sentence to be imposed upon you today.

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“This offence was planned and coordinated, and had clear links to serious and organised criminal activities.”

A court earlier heard how McDermid was observed by police surveillance officers getting a taxi to Edinburgh’s Roseburn Street on 5 June.

After visiting a shop, he was watched as he made his way to the Roseburn Path area of the Scottish capital.

Roseburn Path is a former railway line surrounded by dense shrubland and trees, and now serves as a popular walking and cycling route.

McDermid disappeared from view before emerging from the bushes with his face covered and with a metal detector.

He ditched the device after being unable to find the gun and was seen speaking on a black iPhone.

Officers swooped in to detain McDermid, and he was found to have gloves, a balaclava, and £320 in his possession.

Analysis of his mobile phone found he had carried out Google searches on how to use a metal detector, and text messages sent to another person included him saying he was going to “Gorgie to find that thing for him”.

The metal detector was recovered by officers, and a few days later, on 11 June, officers found the firearm and a magazine containing 10 rounds of 9mm bullets.

A magazine containing 9mm bullets was also recovered as part of Operation Portaledge. Pic: Crown Office
Image:
A magazine containing 9mm bullets was also recovered as part of Operation Portaledge. Pic: Crown Office

Lord Arthurson noted how the potentially lethal weapon was discovered during term time near to a nursery and junior buildings of a school.

McDermid last month pleaded guilty to a charge of being involved in serious organised crime. He returned to the High Court in Edinburgh for sentencing on Thursday.

Lord Arthurson highlighted the criminal’s lengthy record and noted how he was the subject of a restriction of liberty order (RLO) at the time of the gun incident.

Despite multiple convictions, up until now, he had never served a custodial sentence.

The judge noted the defendant’s history of cocaine misuse and adverse childhood experiences, adding: “You have a misplaced sense of loyalty to your criminal peers.”

McDermid, who was said to have expressed remorse for his offending, was jailed for six years and nine months.

Read more from Sky News:
Three charged over ‘missing ashes and fraud’ at ex-funeral directors
Ex-police officer given 37th life sentence over sex offences

More than 60 people have been arrested as part of Operation Portaledge, with the criminal activity including properties firebombed and shots fired in the nation’s streets.

Detective Chief Superintendent Dave Ferry said the recovery of the gun formed part of a “long and incredibly complex investigation”.

He added: “Liam McDermid is now facing the consequences of his actions.

“I hope this sentence sends a message to those involved in serious criminality that we remain determined to bring you to justice.”

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The Stone Roses bassist Gary ‘Mani’ Mounfield dies aged 63

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The Stone Roses bassist Gary 'Mani' Mounfield dies aged 63

The Stone Roses bassist Gary “Mani” Mounfield has died at the age of 63, his family has said.

Mani’s brother, Greg, said in a post on Facebook: “It is with the heaviest of hearts that I have to announce the sad passing of my brother.”

“RIP RKID,” he added.

Gary "Mani" Mounfield and his wife Imelda at the world premiere of "The Stone Roses : Made Of Stone" in 2013. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Gary “Mani” Mounfield and his wife Imelda at the world premiere of “The Stone Roses : Made Of Stone” in 2013. Pic: Reuters

Mr Mounfield joined the Manchester band in 1987 and played on both their albums, remaining with the group until their split in 1996.

He subsequently joined Primal Scream, and played with the Scottish outfit until 2011, when he left to rejoin the reuniting Roses.

His passing comes two years after the death of his wife, Imelda Mounfield, who was diagnosed with stage 4 bowel cancer in November 2020.

The couple had twin boys, born in 2012.

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Ian Brown, left, with Mani, right, performing on stage during their 2012 reunion concerts in Manchester. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Ian Brown, left, with Mani, right, performing on stage during their 2012 reunion concerts in Manchester. Pic: Reuters

The Stone Roses frontman Ian Brown shared a tribute online, writing on X: “REST IN PEACE MANi X.”

Now the band’s musical contemporaries are offering their condolences.

Oasis singer Liam Gallagher said he was “in total shock and absolutely devastated” by the news.

Also on X, Shaun Ryder of the Happy Mondays wrote: “RIP Mani – my heartfelt condolences to his twin boys and all of his family.”

His bandmate, Rowetta, added: “Back with your Imelda, Mani. Going to miss you so much.

“All my love to the boys, the family & all those who knew & loved him.”

The Charlatans’ frontman, Tim Burgess, shared a photo of himself with Mani.

“I shared this photo a week or so ago on Mani’s birthday,” he wrote.

“It never failed to bring a smile to my face – and that was exactly the same for the man himself.

“One of the absolute best in every way – such a beautiful friend.”

Pic: Robert Marquardt/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
Image:
Pic: Robert Marquardt/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

Echo & the Bunnymen vocalist Ian McCulloch said Mani was someone “who I have always loved and always will love, deeply and forever. Like a brother”.

He continued: “I am in shock to be honest. Please tell me I’m just having a bad, bad dream. My thoughts and feelings and Manilove to all of his family from me”.

Formed in 1983, The Stone Roses were a mainstay of the “Madchester” scene, which was known for its indie dance music; a blend of indie, acid house, psychedelia, and pop.

Their eponymous debut album of 1989 was a huge success, and was named the second greatest album of all time in a “Music of the Millennium” poll conducted by HMV, Channel 4, The Guardian, and Classic FM.

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