Nigel Farage on course to be next prime minister, mega poll projects
Nigel Farage is on course to be prime minister, according to a seat-by-seat YouGov poll which reveals the scale of Conservative implosion.
The YouGov MRP polling projection, based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks, suggests an election held tomorrow would see a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 311 of the 650 seats, 15 seats short of the formal winning line of 326.
In practice, once the Speaker and absent Sinn Fein MPs are accounted for, it would be all but impossible for anyone other than Mr Farage to secure the largest number of MP backers and thus become prime minister.
Reform UK has improved its position since the last YouGov MRP in June, when it was 55 seats short of a majority. The projection suggests 306 Reform gains, up from their current seat tally of five, which would be the biggest increase in any election in British history.
The projection of Commons seats in Great Britain puts Reform UK on 311 seats, Labour on 144 seats, Liberal Democrats on 78 seats, Conservatives on 45 seats, SNP on 37 seats and Greens on seven seats, with Plaid on six seats and three seats won by left-wing challengers.
Barely a year after Keir Starmer won a landslide, this result would see Labour lose around two-thirds of their existing seats, down from the 411 they won in last year’s general election.
This is significantly worse than the party’s 2019 result under Jeremy Corbyn when the party won 202 seats and is their lowest tally since 1931.
More than a third of Labour’s remaining seats would be in London, making them more reliant on London than any other British party is on any other nation or region.
Among the big-name casualties would be Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner.
The Conservatives would fare even worse, pushed potentially to the brink of extinction. They would lose two-thirds of their 121 seats won last year – which was already their worst result in their 190-year modern history – reducing their tally to 45 seats.
And even further back, it would be worse than any result they’ve ever suffered, all the way back to the formation of their predecessor party, the Tory Party in the 1670s.
This would put the Tories in fourth place behind the Lib Dems, and the first time they have not been one of the two biggest parties.
The Conservatives would be wiped out in both Wales and the South West, a heartland as recently as 2015, and left with just six seats in the north and one in Scotland.
Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride could be among the casualties. Almost 60% of their current front bench would lose their seats.
In theory, the Conservatives could line up with Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, progressive left and Northern Ireland MPs to vote down a Farage premiership, but this is highly unlikely in practice. If they abstain, Mr Farage would still have enough MPs to become PM.
The projections suggest national vote shares of 27% for Reform UK, 21% for Labour, 17% for Conservative, 15% for Lib Dems, 11% for Greens, 3% for SNP and 1% for Plaid.
Some smaller, more recent YouGov polls have put the Reform UK total even higher.
The scale of the threat to Labour from Reform UK is laid bare in this MRP projection.
Three-quarters of Reform UK’s seats would come directly from Labour, while more than half of Labour seats would go directly to Reform UK.
The North East of England would be Reform’s strongest area with 21 of the 27 seats, followed by the East Midlands and Wales. Reform’s weakest areas are London, where they would have six out of 75 and Scotland where they would win five out of 57.
Scotland would see a resurgence of the SNP, an increase of 28 seats to 37 seats, with Labour left with nine seats.
This does not suggest Scottish Labour will be able to win control of the Scottish parliament at next year’s elections.
In Wales, Reform would have 23 seats, against Plaid’s six and Labour’s three, which implies there’s a strong likelihood of Labour losing control in the Welsh Sennedd elections next May.
Voters in Great Britain were asked by YouGov how they would vote in the event of an election tomorrow, even though one is not anticipated for three or four years. MRP projections come with a significant margin of error.
The central projection is that Reform UK gets 311 seats, but this could be as high as 342, which would deliver an overall majority, or as low as 271. The Tories could have as few as 28 seats and as high as 68 seats. Labour’s range could be from 118 to 185.
Politics
Labour deputy leadership candidate accuses opponent’s team of ‘throwing mud’ and briefing against her
Lucy Powell has accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race in a special episode of Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.
With just days to go until the race is decided, Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby spoke to the two leadership rivals about allegations of leaks, questions of party unity and their political vision.
Ms Powell told Electoral Dysfunction that through the course of the contest, she had “never leaked or briefed”.
But she said of negative stories about her in the media: “I think some of these things have also come from my opponent’s team as well. And I think they need calling out.
“We are two strong women standing in this contest. We’ve both got different things to bring to the job. I’m not going to get into the business of smearing and briefing against Bridget.
“Having us airing our dirty washing, throwing mud – both in this campaign or indeed after this if I get elected as deputy leader – that is not the game that I’m in.”
Ms Powell was responding to a “Labour source” who told the New Statesman last week: “Lucy was sacked from cabinet because she couldn’t be trusted not to brief or leak.”
Ms Powell said she had spoken directly to Ms Phillipson about allegations of briefings “a little bit”.
Bridget Phillipson (l) and Lucy Powell (r) spoke to Sky News’ Beth Rigby in a special Electoral Dysfunction double-header. Pics: Reuters
Phillipson denies leaks
But asked separately if her team had briefed against Ms Powell, Ms Phillipson told Rigby: “Not to my knowledge.”
And Ms Phillipson said she had not spoken “directly” to her opponent about the claims of negative briefings, despite Ms Powell saying the pair had talked about it.
“I don’t know if there’s been any discussion between the teams,” she added.
On the race itself, the education secretary said it would be “destabilising” if Ms Powell is elected, as she is no longer in the cabinet.
“I think there is a risk that comes of airing too much disagreement in public at a time when we need to focus on taking the fight to our opponents.
“I know Lucy would reject that, but I think that is for me a key choice that members are facing.”
She added: “It’s about the principle of having that rule outside of government that risks being the problem. I think I’ll be able to get more done in government.”
👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈
Insider vs outsider
But Ms Powell, who was recently sacked by Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the Commons, said she could “provide a stronger, more independent voice”.
“The party is withering on the vine at the same time, and people have got big jobs in government to do.
“Politics is moving really, really fast. Government is very, very slow. And I think having a full-time political deputy leader right now is the political injection we need.”
The result of the contest will be announced on Saturday 25 October.
The deputy leader has the potential to be a powerful and influential figure as the link between members and the parliamentary Labour Party, and will have a key role in election campaigns. They can’t be sacked by Sir Keir as they have their own mandate.
The contest was triggered by the resignation of Angela Rayner following a row over her tax affairs. She was also the deputy prime minister but this position was filled by David Lammy in a wider cabinet reshuffle.
HMRC sent nearly 65,000 warning letters to crypto investors last year, more than double the previous year, as the UK steps up efforts to trace undeclared capital gains.
Politics
‘Additional resources’ offered by govt to reverse ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans at Villa game
The government says it is exploring what “additional resources and support are required” to allow “all fans” to attend Maccabi Tel Aviv’s match against Aston Villa next month.
Supporters of the Israeli side have been told they are not allowed to attend November’s game in Birmingham after a decision by Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG).
The group – made up of local stakeholders, including representatives from the council, police and event organisers – said the decision was due to a high risk of violence based on “current intelligence and previous incidents”.
Politics live: MPs react to Maccabi Tel Aviv fan ban
The decision has been criticised across the political spectrum, with Sir Keir Starmer describing it as a “wrong decision” while Tory opposition leader Kemi Badenoch called it a “national disgrace”.
In a statement on Friday night, a government spokesperson said: “No one should be stopped from watching a football game simply because of who they are.
“The government is working with policing and other partners to do everything in our power to ensure this game can safely go ahead, with all fans present.
“We are exploring what additional resources and support are required so all fans can attend.”
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Birmingham residents react to the Maccabi fan ban
Meanwhile, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said: “Antisemitism is a stain on our society that shames us all. Every football fan, whoever they are, should be able to watch their team in safety.
“This government is doing everything in our power to ensure all fans can safely attend the game.”
The prime minister’s spokesman previously said Sir Keir would “do everything in his power to give Jewish communities the security they deserve”.
Read more:
Why are fans banned – and has this happened before?
How this raises questions about one of the UK’s biggest cities
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Badenoch: Fan ban a ‘national disgrace’
The Home Office offered to provide more police for the event, while Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Communities Secretary Steve Reed also intervened.
However, senior police insisted the ban was necessary and cited clashes and hate crime offences committed when the Israeli team travelled to Amsterdam to play Ajax last year.
The Aston Villa vs Maccabi Tel Aviv match – set to take place on Thursday 6 November – is a Europa League fixture.
UEFA, which runs the tournament, had urged UK authorities to ensure away fans could attend.
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