Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 5: How big was the bump for Oregon, Bama?
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Oregon’s win at Penn State catapulted the Ducks into the top three this week, but they weren’t the only movers on a statement Saturday where winning on the road provided an extra boost.
Welcome back, Alabama.
There’s a temporary ceiling, though, for some of these contenders, as the selection committee’s head-to-head tiebreaker is factoring into the ranking. It’s one of several tiebreakers they use when comparing teams, and as long as the teams have similar records, the group has historically leaned on the head-to-head result. That’s helping Florida State tremendously right now.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to-date, the ones with statement wins and/or multiple wins against respectable teams have the early edge.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be as teams enter the heart of conference play. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

Projecting the top 12
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Why they could be here: The Canes had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Florida State, but entered this week ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — a statistic that has historically aligned with the selection committee’s top four teams. With Notre Dame’s resounding win at Arkansas, the Canes’ season-opening win against the Irish continues to shine. Miami’s wins against South Florida and Florida — both of which had bye weeks — continues to collectively help separate the Canes.
Why they could be lower: The Canes have won all four games at home — at a point in the season when other contenders have had to win tough games on the road. Both Ohio State and Oregon have now won tough conference road games.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against FSU could be Miami’s last game during the regular season against a ranked opponent. Right now, Miami is on track for a top four seed, which means a first-round bye. If the Canes lose to FSU — and/or if they finish as the ACC runner-up — this could impact their seeding because so many SEC teams have loaded schedules in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gave the Canes a 63.6% chance to win. The Canes are projected to win each of their remaining games and have the best chance in the conference (67.9%) to reach the ACC title game.
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Why they could be here: It wasn’t an easy trip to the West Coast, where the Buckeyes held a precarious 7-3 halftime lead against Washington, but they found a way. This was Ohio State’s first road game, and it took until the second half to find an offensive groove, but this was a respectable Big Ten win to complement the season-opener against Texas.
Why they could be lower: Oregon’s win at Penn State currently looks better than Ohio State’s home win against the Longhorns. The committee could value that one win more than Ohio State’s two against Texas and Washington.
Need to know: Two of Ohio State’s next three games are on the road — Oct. 11 at Illinois and Oct. 18 at Wisconsin. The Illini rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Indiana with a close win against USC on Saturday. That should keep them in the top 25 and give the Buckeyes another opportunity against a ranked opponent, which they might need if Texas struggles in the SEC and the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 against Penn State.
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Why they could be here: The Ducks earned their first statement win — and they did it in double overtime on the road — but it was their first win against an FBS opponent above .500. Northwestern is 2-2, Oklahoma State is 1-3 and has already fired its head coach, Oregon State is 0-5 and Montana State is an FCS program. As much hype as there has been around Penn State, the Nittany Lions remain a team without any wins against Power 4 opponents.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been dominant against the weaker teams and found a way to beat one of the best teams — on the road. The win at Penn State is better than Ohio State’s home win against Texas, and the Ducks have two road wins compared to none for the Canes.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, and it has a bye week to prepare for the Hoosiers on Oct. 11.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This might be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face during the regular season following USC’s loss to Illinois.
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Why they could be here: The Aggies were able to build upon their win at Notre Dame by beating Auburn, giving Texas A&M some staying power in the playoff race. It helped that the Irish won convincingly at Arkansas, meaning A&M’s victory in South Bend remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country. Wins against UTSA and Utah State aren’t going to help the Aggies’ résumé, but their defensive performance against Auburn will impress the committee.
Why they could be lower: Oklahoma also beat Auburn in similar fashion, and has a strong nonconference win against Michigan. The Sooners don’t have a road win on par with beating the Irish in South Bend, though. Ole Miss has a case to be ranked ahead of both of them because of its full body of work, which now includes three SEC wins and a win against Tulane.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against Mississippi State could be tougher than originally expected. The Bulldogs pushed Tennessee to overtime in Week 5. The Aggies should be favored to win their next three games (Mississippi State, Florida and at Arkansas). If they lose one of those games, it puts pressure on them to have a winning record against the remaining three ranked opponents: LSU, Mizzou and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. Even though the Tigers lost, their defense is still one of the best the Aggies will face, and they’ll have home field advantage — possibly at night.
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Why they could be here: The Rebels knocked off LSU, and have now won four straight games against respectable opponents, including three SEC teams (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). It also helped that Tulane beat Tulsa, and the Green Wave remains in contention for a playoff spot as one of the five highest ranked conference champions if they can win the American. Overall, this is one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, but Ole Miss is also passing the eye test as a complete team.
Why they could be lower: Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 4-5, and Georgia State is 1-3 in the Sun Belt.
Need to know: The Rebels have one of the more winnable remaining SEC schedules of the contenders, with back-to-back trips to Georgia and Oklahoma their biggest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels also have something key to impressing the selection committee — two quarterbacks capable of starting. The play of backup quarterbacks is critical to the selection process (it kept undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023, but helped Ohio State in during the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is more than capable of leading a team toward an SEC title run.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels also have an Oct. 25 trip to Oklahoma, but it’s unclear if the Sooners will have injured starting quarterback John Mateer back by then (unlikely).
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Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye and the committee would rank them based on what they’ve done to-date — with quarterback John Mateer in the lineup. The committee doesn’t project ahead, so the hand injury he suffered in the first quarter isn’t a factor in this week’s prediction. Wins against Auburn and Michigan are still among the best in the country, and the nonconference win against the Wolverines can continue to help separate the Sooners from other teams that played weaker schedules.
Why they could be higher: Oklahoma was passing the eye test with Mateer in the lineup, and the committee doesn’t typically move teams around if they don’t play — unless teams around them are shuffled. The group could give the Sooners more credit for wins against Michigan and Auburn than Ole Miss’ wins against Kentucky and Arkansas. Still, it’s hard for OU to win a debate against the Rebels’ entire résumé, which now includes the LSU win.
Need to know: The committee’s protocol requires their consideration of factors like injuries to key players. If Oklahoma loses a game or two with Mateer sidelined, the committee will understand the circumstance. That doesn’t mean it’s a hall pass to play poorly, but it does mean it can be overcome. A two-loss OU team that rebounds and runs the table with Mateer in the lineup (and playing like he did before he was injured), is almost a shoe-in for the playoff. They’d have to beat all ranked opponents in the second half of the season. The timeline for Mateer’s return, though, is uncertain. And as long as he’s out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based on if they look like a top-12 team with sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. in the lineup.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. This is suddenly an even bigger challenge, as Mateer should still be recovering from hand surgery. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 66.3% chance to win.
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Why they could be here: The head-to-head with Alabama still looms large because it’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to help rank teams with comparable records. As long as FSU and Bama both have one loss, the committee would likely refer to its protocol. The group would also recognize Friday’s loss was in double overtime on the road, and so far, Virginia is a respectable 4-1 opponent. Virginia athletic director Carla Williams is a member of the selection committee, and while she can’t vote or participate in discussions about UVA, she can give information about what she saw from the Noles, and can provide information about her program.
Why they could be lower: The Noles didn’t pass the eye test. They were beaten up front, made two many mistakes early, and were playing from behind most of the game.
Need to know: FSU now has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics, behind Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Miami. This might be FSU’s last chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent during the regular season.
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Why they could be here: The Tide reasserted itself as a playoff contender, winning their first statement game of the season after a season-opening loss at Florida State. That head-to-head result, though, is keeping the Tide behind the Noles because it’s one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to rank comparable teams. Still, it was enough to push Alabama back into the playoff conversation after three straight wins and it keeps the Tide in the hunt to win the SEC.
Why they could be higher: The win at Georgia was on the road, and the Tide passed the eye test — something Florida State didn’t do this week.
Need to know: Alabama entered Saturday with the seventh toughest remaining schedule in the country, as five of the next seven opponents are ranked. Saturday’s win at Georgia gives the Tide a slight cushion in the SEC race.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee. The game against LSU won’t be easy, but Bama’s offense looks better. The Vols gave Georgia fits and could do the same to Bama.
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Why they could be here: The head-to-head loss to the Tide will keep Georgia below Alabama, but the same tiebreaker will keep Georgia ahead of the Vols. The win against Tennessee still looks good, even as the Vols struggled to beat Mississippi State. The overtime win against Tennessee is all they have, though, as home wins against Austin Peay and Marshall don’t help their case.
Why they could be lower: Georgia was fortunate to beat Tennessee, and Indiana is still undefeated.
Need to know: Rival Georgia Tech is still undefeated following a scare against Wake Forest on Saturday and should be favored in each of its games leading into the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels might be better than last year, when they had what many believed to be a more talented team.
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Why they could be here: The Hoosiers escaped on Saturday with a 20-15 win at Iowa, a notoriously difficult place to play. A close win is better than a loss, just ask fellow contenders LSU and Florida State which dropped road games this week. It was the fewest points IU had scored this season, but Indiana now has back-to-back Big Ten wins and its first road win. It also helped IU that Illinois beat USC, further legitimizing the Hoosiers’ 63-10 beatdown of the Illini.
Why they could be lower: If IU is below Penn State after the Nittany Lions lost at home to Oregon, it would simply because more people in the committee meeting room think PSU is the more talented team. It would be tough to justify, though, given Penn State’s three wins weren’t against Power 4 teams. The committee might not think Illinois is a top 25 team, also leaving the Hoosiers without a win against a ranked opponent.
Need to know: The Hoosiers have a bye week to prepare for their Oct. 11 trip to Oregon. IU doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan, but the Hoosiers will have a more difficult path to the playoff this year than last with road trips to Oregon and Penn State still looming.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Ducks’ win at Penn State was proof the defending Big Ten champs are still at the top of the league, along with Ohio State. If IU could pull off the upset in Autzen, it would be one of the biggest of the season.
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Why they could be here: The loss to Georgia is keeping the Vols behind the Bulldogs, and they got a scare on Saturday at Mississippi State before winning in overtime. The season-opening win against Syracuse doesn’t look as impressive after the Orange lost 38-3 to Duke. Unlike LSU, though, the Vols haven’t had any trouble finding points.
Why they could be lower: The Vols lost at home to Georgia, which took a slight hit after the Bulldogs lost to Alabama. Meanwhile, LSU lost on the road to undefeated Ole Miss. It’s possible the committee would have LSU ahead of Tennessee and Penn State.
Need to know: The Vols have a bye week to prepare for Arkansas before back-to-back SEC road games against Alabama and Kentucky.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide has improved each week since its loss to Florida State and is favored to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN’s FPI.
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Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions are a talented team, but don’t have the résumé to show for it. With wins against Villanova, FIU and Nevada, Penn State has the worst résumé of all the contenders. The committee considers how teams lose, too, and the gap between Oregon and Penn State clearly isn’t that wide.
Why they could be lower: LSU lost on the road to an undefeated Ole Miss team, while PSU lost at home. LSU also has wins against Clemson and Florida, and while those teams have struggled this year, they’re still better than what PSU has on its résumé.
Need to know: If Penn State doesn’t beat Ohio State, it’s not a lock to reach the playoff at 10-2. This is already a dangerous spot for the Nittany Lions, as they would be bumped out of the CFP to make room the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions. In this scenario, both the Big 12 and American champs are ranked outside of the projected top 10. If Penn State loses to Ohio State, it has to beat Indiana to have a chance.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. If the Nittany Lions couldn’t beat Oregon at home, how are they going to beat the defending national champs on the road?

Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Sports
Sharks see into future as Celebrini, Smith key win
Published
6 hours agoon
October 24, 2025By
admin

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Associated Press
Oct 23, 2025, 11:13 PM ET
NEW YORK — Mired in a six-game losing streak to start another rebuilding season, the San Jose Sharks had two young franchise cornerstones deliver exactly the kind of performances the team is hoping to get from them for the next decade or more.
Macklin Celebrini had a hat trick and set up Will Smith‘s overtime goal to give the 2024 No. 1 pick his second five-point game early in his second NHL season, and the Sharks are no longer the only team in the league without a victory. Oh, and it came at Madison Square Garden against the New York Rangers, who were looking to win at home for the first time this fall.
“It’s good to see the young guys firing like that,” said enforcer Ryan Reaves, whose early fight against Matt Rempe on Thursday night fired up the Sharks. “We need those guys to step up in big games, and they both did.”
Reaves threw his helmet onto the ice to celebrate Celebrini’s third goal of the night late in the second period.
“I was just making sure there was something on the ice for him,” Reaves said. “I didn’t know how far up the Sharkie fans were, if they had good arms or not, so I was just making sure there was one on there for him.”
There were a few others to clean up, though many more when Taylor Raddysh of the Rangers got his third for dueling hat tricks at the Garden. But Celebrini stole the show by assisting on Smith’s goal in the third period and then again in OT.
“It speaks for itself, to be honest, to do that at MSG on a huge stage,” said Smith, who had four points in his own right. “In a game where we needed him, he showed up.”
Counting a point from 2025 No. 2 pick Michael Misa, the Sharks got 10 from players age 20 or younger for the second time since April. The last team to do that before them was Toronto on Jan. 8, 1986.
“When you draft them that high, you expect them to perform like that and they’ve proven time and time again why they were drafted that high and why all that was going to be put on their shoulders,” Reaves said. “It’s great to see.”
It came against the backdrop of San Jose starting 0-4-2 – the fourth consecutive season the team has lost at least four in a row at the beginning. After his team’s morning skate, second-year coach Ryan Warsofsky offered an optimistic message.
“We’re not going to quit,” Warsofsky said. “There’s still a lot of hockey to be played. We’re going to keep going. We’re going to keep pushing and challenging and we’re going to get out of this together.”
It was fitting that the most important building blocks led the way. The Sharks have not made the playoffs for the past six years and are not expected to again this season, but they do hope to take a step forward in the process of growing into a contender again.
In an effort to do that, they added veterans like Reaves and Stanley Cup champion defenseman Dmitry Orlov to the mix.
“We have a great group,” said Barclay Goodrow, who won the Cup with Tampa Bay in 2020 and ’21 and landed with the Sharks when they claimed him off waivers from the Rangers in the summer of ’24. “Lots of youth that keeps us old guys younger. It’s fun coming to the rink every day.”
Celebrini and Smith had some fun out on the town in New York City during this swing, which also included a team outing to see “Book of Mormon” on Broadway. A song from the show played in the victorious visiting locker room after the 6-5 win.
“Felt like it brought the boys together a little bit,” Reaves said. “It might be the new one.”
Sports
Ranking the most interesting College Football Playoff and conference races
Published
9 hours agoon
October 24, 2025By
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Bill ConnellyOct 23, 2025, 06:50 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
The signs are everywhere. It’s finally hoodie weather in the Midwest. We’re getting ready to argue all over again about daylight saving time and whether candy corn is good. (It is! I don’t like that it is, but it is.) That’s right: It’s almost November. And November is college football’s greatest month.
We enter this November with far more uncertainty in the air than usual. Sure, it almost certainly looks like Ohio State and Indiana will vacuum up two of the 12 College Football Playoff slots, with Oregon likely nabbing a third. The top-heavy Big Ten should continue to fend off any of the “Has parity taken over college football?” talk en vogue at the moment. But everywhere else, it’s nothing but uncertainty as far as the eye can see.
We know the SEC should land quite a few CFP bids, but we have no idea who will grab them. (Okay, we have some idea, but not a lot!) We thought the ACC (Miami) and Big 12 (Texas Tech) both had teams capable of charging to 12-0 and easy CFP bids, but Miami and Texas Tech lost last week. So did Memphis, which plunged the American Conference race into chaos. And have you looked at the Heisman betting lately? It feels like we still have some major plot twists to come with that.
Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 30 teams with at least a 10% chance at a playoff bid. Most of what’s ahead appears unsettled, so let’s try to make some sense of it. Here are the 10 FBS races I’m most looking forward to as hoodie weather — the best weather — further takes over our world.

1. SEC title race
Per SP+, we head into Week 9 with eight teams clinging to at least a 5% chance of winning the league title: Alabama (25.8%), Texas A&M (17.6%), Georgia (13.9%), Oklahoma (10.4%), Texas (7.7%), Missouri (7.4%), Ole Miss (7.1%) and Vanderbilt (5.5%). They all have either zero (Bama and A&M) or one conference loss, and there are eight remaining games between them over the next six weeks, including two potential elimination games in Week 9 (Ole Miss at Oklahoma and Missouri at Vanderbilt).
I can tell you how many different teams have a chance, but it’s hard not to think of Alabama as the front-runner. The Crimson Tide moved to 4-0 in SEC play last week with a 37-20 win over Tennessee, and they’ve now played four of the five best opponents on their conference schedule. They’re only up to ninth in SP+, however, thanks primarily to statistically subpar performances in wins over Georgia and Missouri (and, of course, the season-opening dud against Florida State, an increasingly inexplicable result). That means their remaining games against LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn are projected as one-score affairs. Their spot in Atlanta isn’t a gimme just yet. Still, wins are wins, and they’re in great shape.
Even if we give one title game spot to Bama, the race for the other spot is pretty fascinating. Will Georgia continue to spot opponents multiscore leads before scraping their way back? How much will the Bulldogs’ loss to Bama hurt them in potential tiebreaker scenarios? Can unbeaten Texas A&M continue charging ahead as the schedule ramps up with trips to LSU, Missouri and Texas? (You could tell me right now that the Aggies went 0-3 or 3-0 in those trips and I would believe you, no questions asked.) Can Ole Miss clear this week’s hurdle in Norman and take advantage of a reasonably light home stretch? Is Oklahoma really a contender with five remaining top-20 opponents (per SP+)? I’m slightly worried about overbilling this race when the most likely result seems to be yet another Bama-Georgia title game. But there’s still lots of potential weirdness on the table. That also means the jockeying for the other SEC playoff spots will be interesting.
Key upcoming games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), Vanderbilt at Texas (Week 10), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Texas at Georgia (Week 12), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Texas A&M at Texas (Week 14)
2. American Conference title race
Out-of-nowhere upsets have sent conference title races in unexpected directions since conferences first came into existence, and few were as unexpected as Memphis‘ 24-21 defeat at UAB last week. The Blazers had just fired coach Trent Dilfer, and Memphis was a more than three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers entered the game with a 43% chance of making the CFP, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Those odds are now 11%.
Memphis’ loss is our gain. SP+ now gives five teams between a 12% and 24% chance of winning the American Conference: USF (24.4%), North Texas (22.6%), Memphis (19.4%), Navy (17.3%) and Tulane (12.7%). USF, Navy and Tulane are unbeaten in conference play, and Navy is unbeaten overall thanks to a couple of narrow wins in its past two games. But Navy and Tulane have had to pull off escapes in recent weeks and have fallen out of the SP+ top 50. USF has made a nice ascent since a humiliating 49-12 loss to Miami, but the Bulls must play at Memphis and Navy in the coming weeks. If they beat Memphis on Saturday, their spot in the American Conference title game begins to appear secure. But a Memphis win would improve Memphis’ own odds and those of North Texas.
Key upcoming games: USF at Memphis (Week 9), Navy at North Texas (Week 10), Tulane at Memphis (Week 11), USF at Navy (Week 12), Navy at Memphis (Week 14)
3. The current hierarchy of one-loss teams
1:14
Unstoppable force vs. immovable object: Rebels offense vs. OU defense
SEC Network’s Alyssa Lang presents pressing statistics and potential CFP chances ahead of No. 8 Ole Miss’ battle against the No. 13 Sooners.
From a College Football Playoff perspective, this is the most important race. But it’s also the blurriest. If we assume that the Group of 5 ends up with just one of the 12 spots in the CFP — not a guarantee (since we could still theoretically end up with a particularly low-ranked Big 12 or ACC champion), but likely — then that leaves 11 spots for the four power conferences. Among power-conference teams, SP+ projections suggest an average of 5.1 will end up 11-1 or 12-0 heading into championship weekend, likely from this pile:
Odds of finishing 11-1 or better (power-conference teams only): Ohio State 90.1%, Indiana 87.8%, Georgia Tech 49.6%, Texas Tech 46.2%, Oregon 33.1%, Miami 27.5%, BYU 27.3%, Louisville 22.3%, Georgia 16.5%, Ole Miss 16.1%, Alabama 14.9%, Virginia 12.4%.
If we assume for a moment that five or so of those teams will make the field of 12 as they did last year — again, not guaranteed but reasonably likely — that leaves about six spots for multiloss teams, likely from the Big Ten and SEC.
It’s impossible to know where each potential multiloss team might stand six weeks from now, when we don’t know who they might have beaten or lost to — or how the CFP committee will, after pressure, handle differences in strength of schedule — but let’s lay out where their résumés currently stand by combining Strength of Record and Résumé SP+ into one résumé ranking.
Current computer-based résumé rankings:
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Indiana (7-0)
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Ohio State (7-0)
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Texas A&M (7-0)
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Oregon (6-1)
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Alabama (6-1)
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BYU (7-0)
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Georgia (6-1)
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Georgia Tech (7-0)
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Oklahoma (6-1)*
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Miami (5-1)
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Texas Tech (6-1)*
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Vanderbilt (6-1)
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Ole Miss (6-1)
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Notre Dame (5-2)
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Missouri (6-1)
(* Since Texas Tech’s lone loss came without injured starting quarterback Behren Morton, it could get some benefit of the doubt from the committee. And how might the committee handle Oklahoma’s loss to Texas considering John Mateer had rushed back from injury?)
Among current one-loss teams, it seems Oregon, Alabama and Georgia are in good shape to handle another defeat with playoff standing intact. But the number of other spots available could depend on the teams in Provo and Atlanta. BYU and Georgia Tech remain unbeaten, and if either team gets to championship weekend at 12-0, it will be in no matter what happens in the respective conference title games. That’s not particularly likely — BYU must travel to Iowa State (Week 9), Texas Tech (Week 11) and Cincinnati (Week 13), while Georgia Tech finishes against a torrid Pitt (Week 13) and Georgia (Week 14) — but it remains on the table.
Meanwhile, the hierarchy of teams ranked ninth to 15th above tells us quite a bit. Two-loss Notre Dame obviously needs a little bit of help, but considering there are head-to-heads between No. 9 and 13 and No. 10 and 15 this week, the Fighting Irish will likely move up a couple of spots despite being on a bye week. Their strength-of-schedule numbers will only get worse from here, however, so they need to keep looking the part as they have in recent weeks.
Key upcoming games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 9), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Week 14)
4. ACC title race
Georgia Tech barely survived at Wake Forest and needed some red zone implosions from Duke — including a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return — to survive in Durham on Saturday. But again, wins are wins, and the Yellow Jackets have seven from seven games.
The Jackets are 4-0 in ACC play, so they have their noses out in front in the conference title race. Still, there are seven teams with at least a 7% chance at the league crown right now: Georgia Tech (26.9%), Louisville (16.8%), Miami (13.4%), Virginia (12.9%), SMU (12.9%), Pitt (8.3%) and Duke (7.3%). Considering the closeness of the games that we’ve already seen between these teams, that makes quite a bit of sense.
In terms of the quantity of teams involved, this race could have ranked higher on the list. But somehow we have only five more remaining games between these seven teams. This race could be decided as much by who avoids unexpected upsets as anything. With only one team really standing out from a quality perspective — Miami is 13th in SP+, and the other six contenders are between 24th and 44th — upsets are somewhere between conceivable and quite likely.
Key upcoming games: Miami at SMU (Week 10), Virginia at Duke (Week 12), Pitt at Georgia Tech (Week 13), Louisville at SMU (Week 13), Miami at Pitt (Week 14)
5. The charge to 6-6
We’re constantly told that there are too many bowls and that they don’t mean what they used to. And yet, one of the most enjoyable storylines in a given season comes when a down-on-its-luck program makes a run at bowl eligibility. Here are some of the more interesting names that have a shot at the postseason in 2025:
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Northwestern Wildcats (5-2 record, 80.7% chance at bowl eligibility per SP+): The Wildcats have bowled only once in the past four seasons, and they stumbled out of the gate with a dire 23-3 loss to Tulane in Week 1. But they’ve won four in a row to get to the precipice, and while they’re projected underdogs in each remaining game, they’ll probably snag at least one minor upset.
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Temple Owls (5-2, 77.4%): One of my favorite stories of the season. Temple went just 13-42 from 2020 to 2024 but made a knockout hire by bringing veteran K.C. Keeler to town. Last Saturday’s blowout of Charlotte brought the Owls to five wins, and they’re favorites at Tulsa this weekend. (If they don’t beat Tulsa, however, things might get a little bit dicey, as they’re at least slight underdogs in each remaining game.)
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New Mexico Lobos (4-3, 76.0%): Jason Eck’s Lobos were pains in Michigan’s neck in Week 1 and pummeled UCLA in Week 3. Losses at San José State and Boise State hurt, but as long as they handle their business at home against Utah State and Colorado State, they’re set.
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Wyoming Cowboys (3-4, 37.6%): After stumbling to 3-9 in Jay Sawvel’s first season as Craig Bohl’s successor, the Cowboys have played some entertaining games of late, and their 35-28 win over San José State in Week 7 kept bowl hopes alive. Their odds would hop to around 50-50 with a win over Colorado State on Saturday.
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Ball State Cardinals (3-4, 20.7%): The Cardinals slipped from 5-7 to 4-8 to 3-9 over Mike Neu’s final three seasons, and they’ve suffered three massive blowouts this year under Mike Uremovich. But their 3-0 home record has bought them time, and a win at 1-6 Northern Illinois on Saturday would keep hope alive.
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New Mexico State Aggies (3-3, 43.3%): NMSU isn’t particularly strong (122nd in SP+) and just fell to Missouri State at home, but Conference USA offers plenty of games against similarly iffy programs. They have only one sure loss (at Tennessee) remaining on the schedule. They’re in the hunt.
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Delaware Blue Hens (3-3, 78.0%) and Missouri State Bears (3-3, 44.5%): The FBS newcomers will need help, as they aren’t automatically eligible and would only get bowl bids if there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the slots. Right now it looks like there probably will be. Still, the Blue Hens and Bears have fit in well in CUSA. Delaware has a 14% chance of finishing 8-4 or better, which is always a hell of an accomplishment for a newbie.
6. Conference USA title race
Yes, there’s a lot of dead weight in this conference, but a tight race is a tight race, and heading into Week 9, four teams had between a 20% and 23% title chance — Jacksonville State (22.7%), Louisiana Tech (21.7%), Western Kentucky (21.0%) and Kennesaw State (20.7%) — with a fifth contender (Liberty) at 8.6%.
On Tuesday, Western Kentucky knocked off Louisiana Tech in a genuine game-of-the-week candidate, while Kennesaw State pulled away from Florida International. That will shift the odds in those teams’ favor, but with so much evenness in this conference, advantages will likely shift again in the coming weeks. Kennesaw State’s presence in the race makes things even more fun; the Owls face-planted with a 2-10 FBS debut last season, but under Jerry Mack they nearly beat Wake Forest in Week 1 and have won five straight.
Key upcoming games: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (Week 12), Liberty at Louisiana Tech (Week 13), Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Week 14), Kennesaw State at Liberty (Week 14)
7. Heisman race
First it was Texas’ Arch Manning and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Then LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Then Oklahoma’s John Mateer. Oregon’s Dante Moore had his turn at the top of the list. Miami’s Carson Beck was up there. The mantle of Heisman Favorite has been a hot potato this season. No one has held on to it for very long.
After the past few weeks of action, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza shining for an unbeaten team, Ty Simpson providing a slow drip of heroics during Bama’s run of four straight ranked wins and Julian Sayin completing what feels like 100% of his (mostly safe) passes against mostly overwhelmed opposition, we head into Week 9 with a clear upper tier in the race.
Current ESPN BET Heisman odds: Mendoza +300, Simpson +350, Sayin +400, Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed +1100, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia +1400, Moore +1800, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton +1800, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love +2000, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith +3500, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss +3500.
If that’s the favorites list we end up with, so be it. At the end of championship weekend, Mendoza, Simpson and Sayin should all have between 3,300 and 3,600 passing yards with about 33 to 39 touchdowns. Solid work. But if you’re a believer in “Heisman Moments,” they might not have many marquee opportunities between now and the conference title games. The door could be open to Pavia or Reed, if they continue leading their respective teams to unforeseen heights. Maybe Stockton keeps bailing his team out with fourth-quarter heroics. Maybe Love produces a couple more 200-yard rushing games and captures the imagination. Maybe in the lack of some obvious 4,000-yard passer, conventional wisdom begins to home in on a defensive player like Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. or Ohio State’s Caleb Downs. This would be a fun year for a change-of-pace pick. Regardless, I don’t feel like our current favorites list is quite what we’ll have a month from now.
8. MAC title race
There are currently five teams with between a 12% and 25% chance of winning the league — Western Michigan (24.6%), Toledo (19.1%), Miami (Ohio) (19.1%), Buffalo (18.7%) and Ohio (12.3%) — and Miami plays every team on the list besides itself. The RedHawks could play for the crown themselves, but either way they’ll directly decide who gets to play for it. They host smoking-hot Western Michigan this weekend, then play a fellow contender in each of the first three weeks of November’s midweek MACtion slate.
Miami and Western Michigan have each rebounded from 0-3 starts to now stand at 4-3. Western Michigan has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 21.3 points per game during this winning streak and has jumped 32 spots in SP+ (from 124th to 92nd) in just three games.
Toledo, meanwhile, has beaten projections in five of seven games this year and ranks seventh nationally in points allowed per drive; the problem, as it usually is under Jason Candle: random duds. They lost as projected 18-point favorites to Western Michigan, then blew a 21-point lead (as a 22-point favorite) against Bowling Green. They’re favored by at least eight points in every remaining game, but another MAC dud would almost certainly eliminate them from the list.
Key upcoming games: Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (Week 9), Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Week 11), Ohio at Western Michigan (Week 12), Toledo at Miami (Ohio) (Week 12), Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo (Week 13), Ohio at Buffalo (Week 14)
9. Biletnikoff Award race
The preseason watch list for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s best wide receiver, tends to feature approximately a million names, give or take. But among the six current per-game receiving yardage leaders, only three made that initial list: USC‘s Makai Lemon, Louisville’s Chris Bell and Arizona State‘s Jordyn Tyson. San José State‘s Danny Scudero and Texas A&M’s Mario Craver had to be added to the list on Oct. 1, and Illinois’ Hank Beatty was added on Oct. 15.
Of the nine wideouts listed in our preseason Top 100 players list, none are in the nation’s top 10 in receiving yards per game, and only five are in the top 50. The only reason Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 player in the country on that preseason list, is even in the top 15 in yards per game is because he had 272 combined yards against Grambling and Ohio. In five games against power-conference opponents, he’s averaging 66.0 yards per game and 9.4 yards per catch.
A lot of this lack of production comes from the fact that, aside from a season-opening dud against Texas (six catches, 43 yards), Ohio State hasn’t needed him to shine brightly yet. Buckeyes games haven’t been remotely close, and it’s fair to assume Smith will be just as ridiculous in their likely upcoming CFP trip as he was last year. But to win the award as the nation’s best receiver, shouldn’t you actually have to do something in-season? Will voters lean toward Lemon (108.3 yards per game), Bell (106.3) or a new star like Craver (95.4)? Will they vote for someone like Smith or Alabama’s Ryan Williams (60.4 yards per team game) based on what we all assume they are instead? It’s an interesting philosophical question.
10. Big 12 title race
Heading into Week 9 last season, Arizona State was 5-2 but only 52nd in SP+, having wobbled through a series of close games and having suffered a mid-October upset loss without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt. As you probably remember, the Sun Devils caught fire, winning six straight, winning the Big 12 with a rout of Iowa State and all but beating Texas in the CFP quarterfinals.
ASU has certainly lined up a lot of parallels heading into Week 9 of 2025. Same record? Check. Same September mediocrity? Check. Same mid-October loss sans Leavitt? Check. Another SP+ ranking in the 50s? Check (55th). Despite a 3-1 conference record, and despite last week’s upset of Texas Tech, ASU has only a 4.8% title chance at the moment, per SP+. From a statistical standpoint, a conference title run would be just as unexpected as last year’s. It would be one hell of a story if they caught fire again.
Right now, three teams have at least a 17% title chance, per SP+: Texas Tech (34.8%), BYU (25.1%) and Cincinnati (17.5%). Utah (6.6%), ASU (4.8%) and Houston (4.1%) are still in the hunt, and if Iowa State (2.6%) regains its early-season form, the Cyclones could beat some contenders down the stretch — including unbeaten BYU this weekend — and insert themselves in the race as well.
Key upcoming games: Houston at Arizona State (Week 9), Cincinnati at Utah (Week 10), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 11), BYU at Cincinnati (Week 13)
Sports
Sources: SEC suspends Georgia-Auburn referee
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October 24, 2025By
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
Oct 23, 2025, 06:12 PM ET
The Southeastern Conference has suspended longtime referee Ken Williamson for the remainder of the season in the wake of his crew’s performance in Georgia‘s 20-10 victory at Auburn on Oct. 11, sources confirmed to ESPN on Thursday.
Williamson, who was the crew chief in that game, told SEC officials prior to the opening game that he was going to retire after this season, sources said.
The SEC declined to comment Thursday. “The SEC does not comment on personnel matters,” a league spokesperson said.
Williamson didn’t respond to a text message from ESPN.
There were two controversial calls in Georgia’s come-from-behind win at Jordan-Hare Stadium. With the Tigers leading 10-0 late in the first half, Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold tried to score on a sneak on third-and-goal from the Georgia 1.
As Arnold reached for the end zone, Georgia linebacker Raylen Wilson punched the football out of Arnold’s arm. Bulldogs safety Kyron Jones recovered the ball at the 1, and officials ruled that Arnold fumbled before reaching the goal line.
After a lengthy delay, replay officials upheld the on-field ruling, giving the Bulldogs possession.
Georgia kicked a 29-yard field goal with 13 seconds left to cut Auburn’s lead to 10-3 at the half.
As Williamson made his way to the locker room, he was confronted by Auburn athletic director John Cohen and football coach Hugh Freeze.
“I have no clue how that doesn’t break the plane, no clue,” Freeze told sideline reporter Molly McGrath at halftime. “We’re due a break, maybe, one of these damn times.”
Williamson also missed a targeting penalty against Auburn cornerback Kayin Lee with 1:07 left in the first half. A review was initiated by the replay crew, and Lee was ejected from the game for a helmet-to-helmet hit.
With the Bulldogs leading 13-10 in the fourth quarter, Georgia coach Kirby Smart ran toward the side judge and appeared to call timeout with his hands. The official stopped the clock, and Smart argued that he was only telling the official that Auburn players were clapping their hands to mimic Georgia’s signals, which should warrant a penalty.
After a brief discussion, Georgia wasn’t charged a timeout, and the play clock was reset to 25 seconds.
“Go lip-read, because I’m screaming, they’re clapping,” Smart said after the game. “They’re clapping. I didn’t need a timeout because we were going to get it off before the shot clock. It was 2,1. We’re going to get it off before the play clock ended, and I didn’t need a timeout. It was the fact that they were clapping. I wanted him to call it because it’s a penalty.”
Longtime NFL official Terry McAulay, a former coordinator of football officials for the Big East and then the American Athletic Conference, told ESPN on Thursday that he believed Williamson’s punishment was too severe.
“I think this does set a very dangerous precedent,” said McAulay, who now works as a rules analyst for NBC Sports. “I mean, it’s basically succumbing to the masses who want every official’s head on a post after a difficult loss where there were maybe some controversial calls.
“I know the world doesn’t think they’re accountable, but they certainly are. They work the whole season for postseason [assignments] and when they have situations like this, they don’t get postseason assignments. They sometimes are not renewed. If they felt this rose to the level of a required punishment, there are certainly lesser punishments that may have been more appropriate than to basically end somebody’s career.”
Williamson’s suspension was first reported by Yellowhammer News.
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