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Wow, what an amazing finish to the MLB regular season! Now it’s your turn, October.

The 2025 MLB playoffs start Tuesday (1 p.m. ET on ESPN), and we’re here to get you ready for what is setting up to be a thrilling postseason.

Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Is this the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally get to the Fall Classic? Will the Philadelphia Phillies make another deep run after a strong regular season? Or will the chaos that ruled September continue to reign?

MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all — or go home early — and a name to watch for on all 12 World Series hopefuls.

Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.

Insider intel | Schedule | Bracket | ESPN BET

Jump to a team:
TOR | SEA | CLE | NYY | BOS | DET
MIL | PHI | LAD | CHC | SD | CIN

American League

No. 1 seed | 94-68 | AL East champs

ALDS opponent: Yankees (46.7% chance of advancing) or Red Sox (51.3% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.4% | ESPN BET Odds: +750

Team temperature: 91°

Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out, and they field as cleanly as any team in the postseason field. Toronto has scuffled lately, yes, and the culprit is a punchless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the game’s best units in runs scored as well as wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to mash their way past teams. They’ll need good pitching, and while there isn’t a clear ace or lockdown bullpen piece, they have droves of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence isn’t accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is quite the excellent predictor of success. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At age 35, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach by focusing more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate stable anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, hitting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and winning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season centered around putting the ball in play and not striking out while still featuring some power. But that pop vanished down the stretch before turning it on the final weekend. Their struggles correspond with Bo Bichette going on the injured list with a sprained knee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who hasn’t been cleared to begin running. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will hold a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July and August, pretty good in the other months, and on the whole, has allowed way too many home runs and absorbed way too many blown saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will rest largely on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Three true outcomes baseball got you down? Tune in to some Blue Jays baseball to fulfill all of your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play in 81.7% of its plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an AL team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — Doolittle


No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs

ALDS opponent: Guardians (62.8% chance of advancing) or Tigers (50.9% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.7% | ESPN BET Odds: +500

Team temperature: 88°

Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is replete with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven shutout frames. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they’ve got the Big Dumper. Regardless of his might this year, Cal Raleigh himself can’t carry an entire team, which is why it’s nice to have Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup, too. And as long as Bryan Woo remains healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo might be the best in the postseason. Finish off with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Munoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodriguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the more obvious choice, but after his historic power season, it’s possible teams will pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the final two-plus months and bats after Raleigh in the lineup. Throw in some spectacular center-field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since … well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … Woo’s injury is a real issue. The All-Star, who exited his start on Sept. 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and he’s responded well from treatment, but Woo will go into the postseason without having pitched in a game in over two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA over 30 starts. He is critical to their World Series chances. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers. And in 2025, he cemented that by making his first All-Star team, the high point of a regular season in which he won 15 games, posted a 2.94 ERA, compiled 186⅔ innings and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that didn’t find itself until recently. Woo exited his last start with pectoral tightness. The hope is he’ll be good to go for the playoffs. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Behold the historic firsts … or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run ticker rolls back to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he’ll still attract plenty of attention, that number zero looms large over the Mariners’ franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the ALCS, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland — possible obstacles this year as well. — Doolittle


No. 3 seed | 88-74 | AL Central champs

Wild-card opponent: Tigers (47.4% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 1.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +2000

Team temperature: 104°

Why they can win the World Series: Well, why can’t they? They couldn’t possibly make the playoffs after a 64-66 start and trading Shane Bieber at the deadline, could they? They could. And though it’s a wild, out-of-nowhere run, its explicability is not the point. Sometimes teams just get hot and win. The Guardians stole the Central from Detroit in historic fashion. During September, the offense was good, led by Jose Ramírez adding to his Hall of Fame case with another power-and-speed masterclass. The Guardians are here, though, because of their pitching. There is no Sabathia, no Lee, no Kluber — and no Emmanuel Clase, out since the probe into alleged ties to illicit gambling. And yet the Guardians, again and again, turn out pitching. And if they can carry a 2.25 ERA for the month, it doesn’t matter what their names are. They’re the ones winning, and that’s the only thing that matters in October. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: The correct answer is probably “the bullpen,” but we have to pick an individual, so let’s go with the easy answer here and say Ramírez, even though he hasn’t hit well in his postseason career (.239, 4 HRs in 42 games). He has the type of offensive game that should translate well to October, however, with his power and one of the best contact rates in the game. If the Guardians do win, it’s hard to envision them doing it without a locked-in Ramírez. –– Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the offense regresses to pre-September form. Just two Guardians finished the season with an OPS+ above league average: Perennial All-Star Ramírez and first baseman/DH Kyle Manzardo. But Cleveland’s offense was better down the stretch, ranking fourth in the AL in runs scored in September to fuel this improbable run into the postseason. Perhaps the momentum will continue into October. If it does, the Guardians are a dangerous ballclub. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: The Guardians are a team built on pitching, a truism that has never been more obvious than over this last month. But at some point, they’re going to have to hit. And it can’t just be Ramírez and Steven Kwan. Enter Manzardo, who just wrapped up his first full season in the big leagues and will play a big part in the Guardians’ power production in October. Manzardo emerged last September, solidified a place in the starting lineup and produced in the postseason, collecting six hits in 19 at-bats. It’s critical that he provide something similar this time around. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Everybody loves a Cinderella story, and the Guardians are wearing glass slippers this October. Their low point in my simulations came near the end of August: a 1.5% chance to make the bracket. They were done, with no underlying element suggesting a rebound was likely. Yet here they are, back in the playoffs, with another chance to break baseball’s longest active championship drought. This team was 15½ games out back in July! Readers of the Brothers Grimm know that not all fairy tales end well, but you’ve got to see how this one turns out. — Doolittle


No. 4 seed | 94-68 | AL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Red Sox (58.1% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +850

Team temperature: 120°

Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that’s not going to be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement it with a lineup of hitters who, even taking out Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would rank seventh in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around him. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have one of the game’s best starting pairs, and their relief pitching is showing good signs over the past week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting homers, they’ll be tough to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular-season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 over his past three postseasons across 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he’s certainly due for a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … relievers don’t perform to their track records. The names in New York’s bullpen pop: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. All four have been successful closers at the major league level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since adding Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half proved its floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their last road game of the regular season, collecting four hits, including the 10th-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will find himself in it often in October, whether he’s at first base or behind the plate. This lineup seems deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power.” — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Well, let’s face it, you root for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them around. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally goes off in October, it’s just good, solid baseball history that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — Doolittle


No. 5 seed | 89-73 | AL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Yankees (41.9% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 4.7% | ESPN BET Odds: +1800

Team temperature: 83°

Why they can win the World Series: As much as the Red Sox have oscillated this season between looking like they’re ready to be fitted for rings one day and likely to spend October watching games on TV another, the good is good enough to get through a relatively porous AL slate and take their chances against the NL. As long as Roman Anthony is out with a strained oblique, the Red Sox will not be at their best, considering they’re 44-27 when he plays and 45-46 (entering friday for update) when he doesn’t. But with the closest thing to Tarik Skubal in the AL in Garrett Crochet and an underappreciated bullpen that can help win games, Boston’s path to winning narrows. The Red Sox aren’t the best team in the AL but counting them out — particularly if Alex Bregman can get going — would be short-sighted. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: This is a long shot since the last closer to win MVP honors was Mariano Rivera in 1999, but Aroldis Chapman had one of the most unhittable relief seasons of all time and has blown just one save all season, way back in May. Given that most of the other playoff teams have concerns about the reliability of their late-game relievers, Chapman’s ability to lock down leads could be the difference. – Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the lineup doesn’t muster enough runs without Anthony. Postseason teams usually don’t depend on 21-year-old rookies to motor their offense, but Anthony is different. From July 1 through Sept. 2, the day Anthony strained his oblique, the Red Sox ranked sixth in the majors in runs scored and eighth in wRC+. Without him the production tumbled and the Red Sox became a .500 team. Anthony’s return doesn’t appear imminent — he hasn’t resumed baseball activities — so the Red Sox will have to figure it out without him at least to survive the wild-card round. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: When Crochet first appeared in October, he was a reliever for the White Sox, not the ace of this Red Sox staff and one of the five best pitchers in all of baseball. Crochet made his 32nd and final regular-season start Wednesday, throwing eight scoreless innings in Toronto to put him at 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA in his second year as a starter. His last four starts saw him allow just six runs in 27 innings. With the season winding down, Crochet only seems to be getting stronger. Next up: a Game 1 start. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: This is your chance to possibly see baseball’s newest postseason legend born. Yes, Crochet does already have some postseason history under his belt, having tossed three scoreless innings over four relief outings with six whiffs while with the White Sox. But this is a whole different Crochet, a full-blown ace who has seemingly gotten stronger as the season has advanced even though he has never carried anywhere close to this heavy of a workload. Crochet is going to be must-watch every time he takes the hill in the playoffs. — Doolittle


No. 6 seed | 87-75 | AL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Guardians (52.6% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 4.8% | ESPN BET Odds: +1800

Team temperature: 42°

Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the AL. Recent travails notwithstanding, this is a good baseball team, and even with a number of pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth — and in manager A.J. Hinch the acumen — to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball the past two seasons and one hell of an assignment for the Guardians in Game 1 of a three-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the slugging of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson shows up, find top-level form from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too long not knowing the feeling. –– Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the past 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels have won the award in the past 20 postseasons. So maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and the strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some big home runs. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t carry its weight. Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, recorded a 2.42 ERA in four September starts. And yet the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was still a bloated 4.84. That helps explain the team’s near-monumental collapse, though the offense and bullpen didn’t help matters. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, did not pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their ALDS roster. It marked his first season back from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never truly felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with help from a solid enough September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly blowing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters are going to have to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to prove he can. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the nosediving Tigers, who squeaked into the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only AL contender in a late-season free fall. Detroit’s .291 September winning percentage doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented reversal.. Only 10 eventual champs have sported a last-month winning percentage under .500. The worst was the .414 mark (12-17) of the 2006 Cardinals — who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — Doolittle

National League

No. 1 seed | 97-65 | NL Central champs

NLDS opponent: Cubs (55.7% chance of advancing) or Padres (59.2% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 19.8% | ESPN BET Odds: +800

Team temperature: 67°

Why they can win the World Series: They’ve been the best team in baseball over six months. In the modern game, that takes a blend of depth, player development and fidelity to an ethos that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, unstack it and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play — disciplined and smart and fully bought-in — is an enviable brand of baseball. They’re a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, sure. But really fun because they bully without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in today’s game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There’s always the chance that a consistently winning team never makes the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ over 111 (and two more over 100), the NL-best 164 steals, the glovework that’s among the best in MLB by every publicly available defensive metric — it makes sense. They’re the best for a reason. So why would that change? — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Brice Turang is no longer just a slick-fielding second baseman with speed. He has added power this season, especially in the second half — during which he’s slugged over .500. He hits righties and lefties, does a good job of not chasing out of the zone and can pound fastballs. Oh, and he hit .364 with runners in scoring position. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … their lack of power catches up with them. Runs are often scarce in October when teams maximize deploying their best pitchers. And while manufacturing them by any means necessary is the goal, hitting home runs is an indicator of October success. The only team to finish outside the top nine in home runs for a season and reach the World Series over the past five years was the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers, meanwhile, finished this season tied for 21st in home runs with Christian Yelich’s 29 leading the way. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: The hype that surrounded Jacob Misiorowski at midseason, prompting a surprising All-Star appearance despite fewer than 30 career major league innings, has since faded. In nine starts since then, his ERA is 5.45. He’s no longer good enough to crack the Brewers’ postseason rotation. Not yet, anyway. The team, though, is considering using him out of the bullpen, and that’s when things could get really interesting. Misiorowski captivated the nation because he possessed some of the sport’s most devastating stuff despite taking on the workload of a starting pitcher. Out of the bullpen, that triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would certainly play, especially in October. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: The Brewers are one of the three teams in this year’s field — along with the Mariners and Padres — hunting for their first title. But this was the best regular season in Milwaukee’s history, and for the first time since 1982, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with the best record in MLB. Intangibly, this is perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing team to watch, featuring flashy defenders, a number of high-volume base stealers and a lot of balls in play. In other words, the reasons to watch and root for the Brew Crew are many. It would be much harder to identify reasons you would not want to root for them. — Doolittle


No. 2 seed | 96-66 | NL East champs

NLDS opponent: Dodgers (51.3% chance of advancing) or Reds (66.0% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +400

Team temperature: 90°

Why they can win the World Series: Kyle Schwarber is made for October, and he will hold court, along with Bryce Harper, Cristopher Sanchez, Jhoan Duran and the rest of the cavalcade, in front of the most raucous crowd in baseball at Citizens Bank Park. Those are the featured players, but the Phillies’ run could hinge on their four starters’ capacity to go deep into games. The bullpen is top-heavy, and the top is good, but if they aren’t scared off by the third time through the order like so many others, the Phillies can ride their rotation far. Schwarber and Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances and are two of the best playoff performers of their generation. If the Phillies can hit some timely home runs — eight others on the roster reached double-digit homers — their case, already perhaps the most compelling in baseball, gets that much stronger. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: We have two logical choices here: Schwarber and Harper. Both have been outstanding in the playoffs. Schwarber has a .906 OPS and 21 home runs in 69 games, and Harper has a 1.016 OPS and 17 home runs in 53 games. Schwarber, of course, had a monster regular season. Let’s go with Harper, though. He knows how to lock in for October better than any other active hitter, and with time possibly running out on this aging Phillies team, it might be now or never for Harper to win a World Series. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … Trea Turner doesn’t quickly find his rhythm. Turner was placed on the injured list because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain Sept. 8. He was activated Friday but didn’t play in any of the Phillies’ final three regular-season games. The Phillies’ offense hummed without Turner behind Schwarber’s continued dominance of opposing pitchers, but October is a different beast, and Turner is an elite talent who could change Philadelphia’s playoff fortunes. The shortstop won the NL batting title, led the league with 179 hits and stole 36 bases. A healthy Turner adds another dimension. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Jhoan Duran got a taste of postseason baseball with the Twins in 2023, but he has never experienced it quite like at “The Bank,” with his walkout song blaring through what is widely considered the loudest, most boisterous ballpark this time of year. The Phillies’ front office beat out a bevy of suitors for Duran at the trade deadline, and he has been everything the team could have imagined, locking down the back end of a leaky bullpen and looking very much like the final player of a title quest. Soon, the ninth inning will come, and “El Incomprendido” will play. Philly will be ready. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Tired of the bullpen parade? The Phillies are your team. Philadelphia far and away paced the majors in innings from starters. It wasn’t just volume either, as Philly logged baseball’s third-best rotation ERA (3.57). And it wasn’t because the Phillies preached pitch to contact: Philadelphia led all of baseball in strikeout rate from starting pitchers, and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Sure, the loss of Zack Wheeler is a bummer, but the Sanchez-led rotation remains the foundation of the Phillies and their greatest hopes to traverse the bullpen-heavy staffs of the rest of the bracket en route to the World Series. — Doolittle


No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL West champs

Wild-card opponent: Reds (68.4% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 10.7% | ESPN BET Odds: +500

Team temperature: 105°

Why they can win the World Series: They did it last year and pretty much everyone who contributed to that team is back — plus a few more. This time, they’ve got to get through the wild-card series, which is no fun, but their starting pitching depth is truly daunting. No matter how they deploy Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, any permutation works. The bullpen is … a work in progress. But if you’re seeking a functional relief corps on the fly, there are worse places to start than with a group of 10 who have thrown out of the bullpen this month, seven at 95-plus (including Roki Sasaki), with Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw likewise at the ready. As for the hitters: Ohtani will win his second straight NL MVP, Mookie Betts is right again, Freddie Freeman in October is automatic and even if Will Smith is out, what the Dodgers manage better than anyone is depth, and despite the disappointment of the regular season, there exists this truth: If every team plays its best, the Dodgers are better than all of them. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: How about Freeman in a repeat performance? Hey, Corey Seager won in 2020 and 2023 (for two different teams), although no player has won MVP in back-to-back World Series. Freeman has played 11 World Series games — and reached via a hit in all 11 with an OPS of 1.171. He never lets the moment get too big, and another big World Series would cement his status as one of the all-time great clutch postseason performers. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the bullpen sinks this behemoth. Six different Dodgers relievers finished September with an ERA north of 5.00. Their team bullpen ERA for the month that ranked 26th in baseball. Only three teams blew more saves. Tanner Scott‘s first season in Los Angeles was a colossal disappointment. Kirby Yates, their other major free agent bullpen addition, landed on the injured list again during the final week of the regular season. Brock Stewart, the only reliever acquired at the trade deadline, pitched in four games before going on the IL. As a result, the Dodgers will supplement the bullpen with starters; Kershaw, Sasaki and Sheehan all figure to play significant relief roles in October. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Baseball fans were delighted to see Ohtani grace the postseason stage last October, but that was only half of him. This year, Ohtani will be fully unlocked. He’ll pitch — perhaps as soon as Game 1 of the wild-card round — and he’ll hit, with few, if any, limitations. The Dodgers were very careful in how they handled Ohtani’s pitching return, all with the thought of making sure he was at his best going into October. That goal was accomplished. Ohtani has once again proven he can be as dominant on the mound as he is in the batter’s box. Now, he’ll show it when it really counts. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: You like dynasties? Another Dodgers title would further cement L.A.’s dominance over the rest of baseball. The Dodgers looked far more vulnerable than predicted during the season, and their struggles continued into the latter stages of the regular season. But Ohtani will unleash his two-way act in the playoffs for the first time, Betts has turned around his down season, and everyone wants to send Kershaw into retirement on a high note. Dynasties are dynasties because they win even when their plans haven’t unfolded exactly as they foresaw. — Doolittle


No. 4 seed | 92-70 | NL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Padres (55.0% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 6.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +1400

Team temperature: 83°

Why they can win the World Series: They’re a magnificent defensive team, they’ve got Kyle Tucker back to charge an offense that has been a bottom-quarter run-scoring team in the second half, and Daniel Palencia has also returned with his velocity. Maybe their flashes of excellence when they were healthy get rekindled. The Cubs might not be as talented as the NL elite, but their lineup is filled with hitters willing to take walks and not striking out exorbitantly. That kind of approach — and home run hitting — win in October, and the Cubs have both. Keep the steady performances from Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller to lengthen the bullpen and hope for a mid-postseason return by Cade Horton, who would immediately make their chances that much better. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Ian Happ. Tucker has battled multiple injuries in the second half, including a calf injury that sidelined him most of September. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dropped off significantly in the second half. Seiya Suzuki has likewise slumped. Happ is the overlooked member of the Cubs’ lineup, but he’s a switch-hitter with power, he gets on base, controls his strikeouts reasonably well, has hit well in the second half and usually bats second or third, giving him plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the late injuries pushed them off track. The Cubs’ best every-day player (Tucker), top starting pitcher (Horton) and closer (Palencia) dealt with injuries down the stretch. Though Tucker (calf) and Palencia (shoulder) returned from the injured list during the regular season’s final week, Horton was pulled from his start last Tuesday because of back tightnesss and placed on the injured list Saturday because of a rib fracture, the team announced, eliminating any chance of him pitching in the wild-card round. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Here’s one thing we know about the Cubs going into these playoffs: they’re going to have to score runs, especially with Horton out for at least the first round. Kyle Tucker missed most of September and Pete Crow-Armstrong had the majors’ lowest OPS among qualified hitters after the start of August, which only heightens the pressure on someone like Michael Busch. There’s plenty of reason for hope. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately, but Busch, 27, has been at his best over these last couple weeks and led the team with 34 home runs this season. He’ll be at the top of the lineup against righties and his production will be critical. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: An eight-year title drought is small potatoes in Chicago, but 2016 is starting to feel like a long time ago. This version of the Cubs, led by first-title-seeker Craig Counsell, has a chance to carve out its place in the hearts of North Side fans with a deep run this October. When the Cubs have been at their best, they’ve featured an electric offense led by Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and current fan favorite (P-C-A! P-C-A!) Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Tucker headed for free agency, this might be the Cubs’ best shot at matching their 2016 heights with this group. — Doolittle


No. 5 seed | 90-72 | NL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Cubs (45.0% chance of advancing)

Doolittle’s WS odds: 4.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +1400

Team temperature: 99°

Why they can win the World Series: They’re built to succeed in modern playoff baseball — and if they do, the superpen is going to become even more of a desirable asset than it already is. Just this week, the Padres deployed six relievers who threw 98 mph-plus. Have fun, hitters. The Padres need the dynamic version of their offense that hasn’t shown up this year, when they ranked 19th in runs scored. They were better in the second half, and among Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill, the Padres have three could-be anchors. The hitters around them have potential, and complementing a very good rotation with that bullpen gives San Diego arguably the deepest group of pitchers in the postseason. That tends to be what wins teams championships. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Is it fair to say the Padres will go only as far as Machado will take them? Seems reasonable. You need to hit home runs to win in October and the Padres don’t hit a lot of them, so they will need to rely on Machado, the team’s best power hitter, to hit a few over the wall. In 25 postseason games with the Padres, he has hit just .216/.252/.461, although with seven home runs. He’s a future Hall of Famer still looking for that signature October moment. Maybe it finally arrives in 2025. — Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the volatile starting rotation flounders. Though the ceiling is high for the rotation, the floor is concerningly low going into the postseason. Nick Pivetta emerged as a steady ace in his first year in San Diego, but Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish all dealt with varying degrees of inconsistency this season. King probably starts Game 2 of the wild-card series. Cease, whose ceiling includes no-hit stuff, and Darvish, whose postseason history includes great success and prominent failure, round out the talented collection. With one of the best bullpens in baseball, the Padres just need some solid length from their starters. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: The Padres used their best prospect — some would say their only great prospect — to acquire Mason Miller from the A’s in July, all with the hopes that the hard-throwing closer could help put them over the top in October. The Padres head into the playoffs with serious concerns about their rotation and expect to rely heavily on their bullpen, a unit that will be without one of its most important pitchers in Jason Adam. Miller has been called on to record more than three outs various times this season. Expect that to continue in his first taste of October. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: You want your team to try — to leverage the present in lieu of punting in hopes of a better future? Then the Padres are your team, with the frenetic A.J. Preller going all-in when it comes to treating each season as a chance to win, no matter what he’s facing in terms of payroll challenges or the fallout from past bouts of hyperaggression. The Padres try, and if they can beat the Cubs in the wild-card round, San Diego will again get a chance to showcase what has become one of the great game-day atmospheres in the major leagues. — Doolittle


No. 6 seed | 83-79 | NL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Dodgers (31.6% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 1.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +2000

Team temperature: 84°

Why they can win the World Series: Because the Reds believe in starting pitching, and starting pitching — in a world of the bullpenification of October — still has its place. You think the Dodgers aren’t sweating at least a little at the prospect of facing Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott in the first two games of a three-game series? And then what happens when those fears are proven warranted? First Cincinnati backdoors its way into the postseason by overtaking the Mets on the season’s final weekend. Then the Reds follow that by beating the half-billion-dollar defending World Series champions led by the best player in the world? At that point, teams start feeling something, and, no, a special feeling does not a champion make. But the Reds have a little friskiness about them, and even if they’re the last seed in the NL, the Diamondbacks were two years ago, too. With Terry Francona at the helm, underestimate them at your peril. — Passan

If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Pitchers don’t often win the MVP, but the rotation has been the strength for the Reds, and Greene is the starter most likely to reel off a dominant October thanks to his power arsenal. We saw that in a couple of his clutch September starts: A complete-game one-hitter with nine strikeouts against the Cubs and a seven-inning, one-hit, 12-strikeout performance against the Mets. – Schoenfield

If they go home early it will be because … the starting pitching fails to compensate for their weak offense. For the Reds to make a run, they need their starting pitching to carry them. Greene, Abbott and Nick Lodolo should be Cincinnati’s rotation for the wild-card series — unless the groin injury Lodolo suffered in his final regular-season start on Thursday keeps him out — and that trio is one of the best in baseball. The offense, meanwhile, was one of the worst in the majors in the second half, ranking in the bottom third in runs scored, home runs and wRC+. — Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: Noelvi Marte‘s October moment actually arrived in September — on Thursday afternoon, in Game 159 of the Reds’ season, when he leaped against the fence to rob Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds of a ninth-inning, game-tying home run. Marte’s role on this Reds team was muddled when Gold Glove third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes came over before the trade deadline. In hopes of keeping his bat in the lineup, they moved Marte to right field, where his plus arm would play. Marte has handled it well enough to remain a fixture in the Reds’ lineup. That’s what matters most. But the occasional season-saving catch is certainly welcomed. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: You like young, exciting players? In terms of pure, unadulterated excitement, there might be no better hitter-pitcher pair on any team than Elly De La Cruz and Greene. Greene can dominate opponents deep into games, making him a true weapon in a playoff context. Meanwhile, with De La Cruz, you get homers and singles, and you get strikeouts and errors. Good or bad, you can’t take your eyes off the guy. — Doolittle

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Oregon in OT? Virginia’s stunner? Bama’s redemption? Ranking the 25 best games of Week 5

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Oregon in OT? Virginia's stunner? Bama's redemption? Ranking the 25 best games of Week 5

Oregon and Penn State went to overtime. Alabama and Georgia nearly did. Tennessee went to overtime for a second time in three weeks. Illinois watched a two-score lead vanish against unbeaten USC and then won anyway. Georgia Tech pulled off a magic act to avoid an upset in Wake Forest.

What looked to be a great Friday night was one of the best Friday nights in memory, with Virginia pulling off a stirring overtime upset of Florida State, Arizona State unearthing some more close-game magic and Houston coming back to win in overtime in Corvallis. Indiana survived Iowa City. Cincinnati and Kansas put on a Big 12 track meet. Central Washington scored 91 points!

There aren’t many things in the world better than a huge college football Saturday that lives up to its hype. We had been looking forward to Week 5 since the preseason, and it delivered. So instead of compiling a “My Favorite Games of the Week” list at the bottom of this week’s recap column, we’re going to build the whole column out of My Favorite Games!

With Florida State facing its first road test of the season and TCU and Arizona State facing off in a key Big 12 battle, Friday night looked like it was going to be awesome. It was more than that. Arizona State and TCU went down to the wire, Houston-Oregon State was surprisingly awesome, and the game between YAC kings in Charlottesville exceeded all expectations.

Thanks in part to an early fumble from FSU’s Gavin Sawchuk and an acrobatic red zone interception from UVA’s Ja’son Prevard, Virginia led 14-0 early in the second quarter. When FSU scored on three straight drives, however, this game looked as if it would belong to the “Underdog lands some shots early, then fades” category. We see a lot of those games.

Virginia just kept responding, however. J’Mari Taylor tied the game at 21-21 before halftime, Chandler Morris scored his second rushing touchdown, and Morris threw a go-ahead TD to Xavier Brown with 7:20 left. FSU sent the game to overtime with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Tommy Castellanos to Randy Pittman Jr. with 36 seconds left; I was surprised FSU didn’t go for two points and the win, but perhaps coach Mike Norvell simply trusted that his offense was more likely to keep scoring. Nope! The Seminoles didn’t net a single first down in two overtime possessions. First, both teams settled for field goals. Then Morris scored again and hit Trell Harris for the 2-point conversion. Prevard picked off Castellanos’ desperation heave, and one of the most rapid field-stormings you’ll ever see followed.

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Fans rush the field after UVA upsets No. 8 FSU

Florida State is unable to convert on fourth down in double overtime against Virginia, and fans storm the field.

I’m not going to lie: That was both exhilarating and terrifying to watch. But it had been quite a while since Cavaliers fans got to celebrate such a win — their last home victory over a top-10 team was in 2005. That win was also against Florida State. And in a fun nod to history, the Cavaliers had also scored one of the great weeknight upsets of all time in 1995 against, yes, Florida State again. Thirty years later, they did it again.

The win was big because every fan base deserves moments like this. It was also big because it upended the ACC title race a bit. We head into October with Miami at the top of the pecking order, but lots of teams pretty close behind.

Current ACC title odds, per SP+
1. Miami 24.2%
2. Louisville 20.4%
3. Georgia Tech 10.3%
4. Virginia 10.2%
5. Duke 9.6%
6. Florida State 6.7%
7. SMU 5.1%

The winner of this coming Saturday’s Virginia-Louisville game is going to be awfully well-positioned to nab one of the slots in the ACC championship game. (Of course, knowing this conference’s history, we’ve got 26 more plot twists to go between now and then.)


There were six Big Ten games Saturday, and only one was decided before the final two minutes. I felt smart for suggesting in Friday’s preview that Washington might make Ohio State sweat for a while, but the Huskies’ challenge lasted only about 29 minutes in a 24-6 loss. Otherwise, however, every game was dynamite.

That included the night’s big headliner in Happy Valley, though it certainly took its time reaching a boil. In fact early in the fourth quarter it looked as if this would end up a blowout. After 47:35, Oregon led 17-3, having outgained Penn State by a 352-109 margin. (Yards per play to that point: 5.9 to 2.9.)

Out of nowhere, however, Drew Allar led two pristine touchdown drives, one quick and one languid; a lovely touchdown lob to Devonte Ross made it 17-10 Ducks, and a gorgeously designed pitch to Ross tied the game with 30 seconds left.

Penn State needed only three plays to score in overtime, and Oregon had to gut out a response, converting a fourth-and-1 and then scoring on a cluttered shovel pass up the middle to Jamari Johnson. Penn State still looked like the steadier team heading into the second OT, but two plays later, the game was over. Dante Moore connected with Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard score, and Dillon Thieneman appeared out of nowhere to pick off an Allar sideline pass. That was that.

Oregon is the real deal. The Ducks are No. 1 in SP+ and are getting what they need out of virtually every new and former transfer they’ve had to call upon, from Moore and Bryant, to much of the offensive line, to guys such as Thieneman on defense. And their two best offensive players Saturday night might have been freshmen: running back Dierre Hill Jr. (94 yards from scrimmage) and receiver Dakorien Moore (seven catches for 89 yards). Dante Moore aced the biggest test of his collegiate career, and led by head coach Dan Lanning, who seems to adore coaching in games such as this, the Ducks have won 19 of their past 20 games.

The narrative following this one, of course, focused mostly on the losing team. I tend to hate narratives; they’re almost always lazy and oversimplified, and one of the major reasons I’ve pursued analytics as much as I have over my writing career is that I like shutting narratives down. That goes especially for the “can’t win the big one” trope. Tom Osborne couldn’t win the big one, nor could Bobby Bowden or Mack Brown. They couldn’t, and then they did. James Franklin wears the biggest, brightest “Can’t win the big one!” sign in the sport at the moment, and guess what: Of the 136 programs in FBS, at least 125 of them would trade places with Franklin’s Penn State in a heartbeat. Franklin has been undeniably awesome at his job for quite a while. Almost no team in the sport has proven to be more upset-proof. That the Nittany Lions lose only to awesome teams — and often by small margins — is a sign that they’re an awesome team.

However …

Many of Penn State’s recent losses to awesome teams have followed a very familiar script full of droughts, a lack of offensive ambition and a complete lack of faith in the quarterback. Andy Kotelnicki’s fourth-quarter playcalling was almost note-perfect — he has proven his playcalling chops for quite a while now — but it came after two straight quarters of ineffective nibbling. In last year’s CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame, Penn State scored one TD in its first six drives, then carved down the field beautifully for two late touchdowns. In last year’s Big Ten championship game, the Nittany Lions scored one TD in their first four drives and fell behind 28-10 before finding a rhythm and surging back (only to fall short).

It’s great to hold something in reserve for when you need it, and that’s a clear part of the Penn State approach in big games. But it’s producing awfully similar results, and it’s impossible not to notice that in his seven losses as a starter, Allar has averaged just 171 passing yards per game with a 50% completion rate and a 61.1 Total QBR. (It’s also not hard to notice that in the past two games in which he had a chance to win the game on Penn State’s final drive, he threw almost immediate interceptions.)

If someone says someone “can’t win the big one,” my natural instinct is to roll my eyes and assume the tables will turn pretty soon. But it’s hard to maintain that faith, in either Allar or Penn State, at the moment, not when it feels as if we’re watching reruns.


I feel like the Big 12 should sue the SEC for copyright infringement. An utterly nutty conference title race, loaded with close games and unexpected plot twists, is supposed to be the Big 12’s domain. But with Texas Tech’s early 2025 star turn and high-quality, unbeaten starts for Iowa State and BYU, the Big 12 race is looking pretty straight forward at the moment. Following these two huge Saturday games, however, the SEC’s title race leaves September in a place of glorious disarray.

SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 16.3%
Missouri 12.9%
Oklahoma 11.1%
Alabama 11.1%
Vanderbilt 9.7%
Texas 8.5%
Tennessee 7.2%
Texas A&M 6.2%
Georgia 5.2%
LSU 5.2%

To put that another way, the six above teams that have won a national title in the past 25 years (Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia and LSU) have a combined 48.3% chance of winning the SEC. The other four teams above — which have combined for a single outright conference title in the past 50 years (Texas A&M’s 1998 Big 12 crown) — are at 45.1%.

(Other teams have tiny chances that bring the total to 100%. And no, Oklahoma’s odds aren’t affected by quarterback John Mateer‘s recent hand injury.)

We basically have a 50-50 shot at a team enjoying its first conference title in a very long time.

Brilliant early play from Missouri and Vanderbilt has certainly juiced these odds in their favor a bit, and after last year’s No. 2 finish in SP+, we shouldn’t be all that surprised Ole Miss has a puncher’s shot at a conference crown. But I literally laughed out loud when I saw the list above. The SEC is in an incredibly strange place at the moment, and I’m here for it.

Saturday’s Alabama and Ole Miss wins certainly added to the chaotic vibe, and both came down to clutch late-down conversions. First, Ole Miss outgained LSU by a 480-254 margin and led by 10 at the half and 11 early in the fourth quarter. But the Rebels settled for a field goal in the first quarter and lost a fumble in the end zone in the second, allowing LSU to hang around, and Harlem Berry‘s touchdown with 5:04 left brought the Tigers within five points. When Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss foolishly allowed himself to get pushed out of bounds on a third-down rush, stopping the clock with 1:47 left and bringing up a fourth down, it wasn’t hard to see the Tigers stealing this one. But Chambliss found Dae’Quan Wright for a picture-perfect 20-yard gain on fourth-and-3, and Ole Miss kneeled out the win.

On Saturday evening in Athens, Alabama did what it did early against Georgia last season but changed the script for how things played out late. The Crimson Tide scored on four of their five first-half possessions, racking up 262 yards and a 24-14 halftime lead. Ty Simpson was 11-for-16 for 132 yards, Bama was 5-for-8 on third downs (Georgia was 0-for-3), and everything was working.

And then, in the second half, a rock fight broke out. Bama almost seemed Penn State-esque, going ultra-conservative and saving any actually good offensive plays for when Georgia finally took the lead. Only, it never happened. The Dawgs got to within three points on the first drive of the third quarter, but they punted twice and failed on a fourth-and-1 from the Bama 8 with 13:20 left in the fourth quarter when LT Overton and Deontae Lawson stormed the backfield on a hurry-up snap and knocked Cash Jones off-balance for a 3-yard loss. Georgia never got another shot. Thanks to a 7-yard pass from Simpson to Jam Miller on third-and-5 with 1:51 left, Bama was also able to kneel out the win.

By the way, if you’re a fan of the transitive property, I do have to point out that Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, which beat NC State, which beat Virginia, which beat Florida State, which beat Alabama, which beat Georgia. ODU for the CFP???


Tennessee let a potential upset of Georgia slip through its fingers two weeks ago and is still looking ahead at a schedule that includes trips to Alabama and Florida and visits from Oklahoma and surging Vanderbilt. This was not the time to suffer an upset against an upstart — we know from Ole Miss’ and Alabama’s 2024 experiences that untimely upset losses will doom you awfully quickly — but Mississippi State sure looked like it was going to finish the job early Saturday evening. Despite two defensive touchdowns for the Vols (and a yards-per-play advantage of 6.5 to 4.4 for UT), MSU took the lead on four separate occasions and held a 34-27 advantage midway through the fourth quarter with Tennessee forcing a fourth-and-4. But Joey Aguilar found star receiver Chris Brazzell II for a first down, and Aguilar took in a touchdown on the first play after the two-minute timeout.

Tennessee’s DeSean Bishop scored on the first play of overtime, then Arion Carter broke up a fourth-down pass from Blake Shapen to Anthony Evans III.

If the loose playoff goal for an SEC team is to reach 10-2, this comeback saved Tennessee’s bacon. The Vols still have a 40% chance of reaching 10-2 or better. That number would have been about 10% with a loss here.


Arizona State has won nine straight Big 12 games going back to last season, and four of them were decided by five or fewer points. The last two were decided by 27-24 scores.

This Friday night result seemed rather unlikely. TCU, unbeaten and confident, dominated on the way to a 17-0 lead late in the first half, and after the Sun Devils charged back to tie, Josh Hoover‘s 1-yard touchdown gave the Horned Frogs another lead that they held with two minutes left. But a pair of defensive penalties and a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson tied the game. And then Prince Dorbah made maybe the best play of the entire weekend.

Dorbah’s strip sack set up a go-ahead field goal for Jesus Gomez, and Martell Hughes‘ interception 25 seconds later clinched the win.


It was fair to assume that, with such an experienced squad, Illinois was going to respond with physicality and quality after last week’s humiliating loss to Indiana. The Illini ended up needing an extra reserve of resilience too.

They led 31-17 with 10 minutes left, but two Makai Lemon touchdowns (and a 2-point conversion from Lemon), combined with an Illinois fumble deep in Trojan territory, gave USC a sudden 32-31 lead with 1:55 remaining. With help from a pass interference penalty, though, Illinois was able to drive to the USC 24 in the closing seconds, and David Olano‘s 41-yard field goal saved the day.


After jumping out to a 14-0 lead against NC State but falling 34-24, Wake Forest came even closer to an upset Saturday. The Demon Deacons led 20-3 early in the second half and had a chance to close out a 23-20 upset with less than two minutes left. But Robby Ashford, thinking Tech had jumped offside on a third-and-5 and he had a free play, threw an incomplete deep ball, stopping the clock. No flag was thrown — the Tech defender was in the process of jumping back behind the line of scrimmage when the ball was snapped and came awfully close — and Wake was forced to punt. With the extra seconds, Tech drove for a field goal and picked off a 2-point pass in overtime to somehow keep its unbeaten record intact.


In a game neither team led by more than 7 points, Central Connecticut looked to have forced overtime with a short Michael Trovarelli touchdown with 58 seconds left. But unfortunately for the Blue Devils, they, um, forgot to cover Ky’Dric Fisher.


I can’t really say Kansas did a ton wrong here — the Jayhawks got a huge day from Jalon Daniels (445 passing yards and four TDs) and Emmanuel Henderson (214 receiving yards and two of those scores) and basically split third downs with the Bearcats and committed far fewer penalties. But Cincy’s Brendan Sorsby completed passes to nine different receivers and threw two touchdown passes to Cyrus Allen.

When Levi Wentz gave KU its first lead in nearly 55 minutes with a short touchdown reception with 1:45 left, the Jayhawks left too much time on the clock. Sorsby completed a fourth-and-10 pass to Noah Jennings, and Tawee Walker plunged in with the game-winning points with 29 seconds on the clock.


The longer the road trip, the better the Cal result. The Golden Bears beat Auburn, Wake Forest and Pitt on the road last season, and despite a dreadful start in Chestnut Hill — Boston College led 14-0 after just eight minutes — they produced a win in their longest ACC road trip yet. Kendrick Raphael gave Cal its first lead with 13:47 left, but Turbo Richard‘s 71-yard turbo boost made it 24-21 BC. After a fourth-down pass interference call bought Cal time, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hit Mason Mini down the left sideline for a 51-yard score.

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Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini

BC drove the length of the field, but Luke Ferrelli stepped in front of a Dylan Lonergan pass and the Golden Bears prevailed.


Oregon State can’t catch a break. After watching a late lead against Fresno State disappear earlier in the season, the winless Beavers played their best game of the season and led 24-10 with six minutes left. But Conner Weigman threw touchdown passes to Stephon Johnson and Tanner Koziol, and when a late Maalik Murphy-to-Trent Walker completion set up a shot at a game-winning field goal for OSU, basically the entire Cougar lineup broke into the backfield to block it.

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Houston blocks Oregon State’s winning FG attempt to force OT

Multiple Houston defenders break through to block Cameron Smith’s winning field goal attempt for Oregon State.

It was Houston’s second blocked field goal of the night, and it made the ending feel preordained. In overtime, Brandon Mack and Zelmar Vedder stuffed OSU’s Cornell Hatcher Jr. on fourth-and-1, then Ethan Sanchez nailed the 24-yarder to keep Houston unbeaten.


Indiana passed yet another test, taking on upset-minded Iowa in Iowa City and misfiring for much of the middle of the game. Trailing 13-10 with less than 10 minutes left, the Hoosiers got a 44-yard field goal from Nico Radicic and a 49-yard catch-and-go from Elijah Sarratt to take the lead. This being an Iowa game, a late safety was legally required, but Indiana held on.


Last week, San Diego trailed Princeton 35-14 in the second quarter before storming back to win, 42-35. The Toreros decided the only way to follow that up was to spot St. Thomas a 27-10 lead midway through the third quarter. After a 54-yard touchdown pass from Dom Nankil to Cole Monarch cut the Tommies’ lead to 27-24, two fourth-quarter field goals from Emiliano Salazar — including a 25-yarder with two seconds left — sealed another wild comeback.


15. Div. II: No. 8 California (Pa.) 45, No. 4 Slippery Rock 38

As with FBS, Division II’s biggest game of the week went down to the wire. In front of 7,670 in Slippery Rock, Cal scored five touchdowns in 13 minutes to take a shocking 35-14 lead, but the Rock slowly reeled the Vulcans in. Kevin Roberts’ early-fourth-quarter field goal gave Slippery Rock a 38-35 lead, but Cal quickly retied the game, then took the win with Kendrick Agenor’s 14-yard touchdown run with 60 seconds left.


It was almost overshadowed by the two other wild Saturday afternoon SEC games, but A&M almost let one slip through its grasp.

The Aggies erased the Auburn defense and outgained the Tigers, 414-177, but their last six scoring chances resulted in five field goal attempts (two missed) and an interception that Xavier Atkins returned 73 yards to set up a short score. Somehow Auburn got the ball with a chance to win at the end, but poor Jackson Arnold got crushed by Dayon Hayes on fourth down — A&M’s fifth sack of the day and the 15th time Arnold has been sacked in two weeks — and the Aggies survived.


San José State did almost everything right. The Spartans methodically built a 12-point fourth-quarter lead as their in-game win probability crept over 90%. But the Cardinal drove 80 yards in the final three minutes, thanks in part to a 34-yard Caden High reception on fourth-and-10, and Sedrick Irvin‘s short touchdown gave them the lead with 19 seconds left. SJSU nearly drove into field goal range, but Leland Smith couldn’t hold onto a pass over the middle, and the Spartans came up short.


18. Div. III: Alma 29, No. 15 Hope 26

19. Div. III: Maryville 34, Pikeville 30

Big week for Scots! Both the Alma Scots and Maryville Scots came up with late heroics. In front of 3,206 in Holland, Michigan, Alma took down no-longer-unbeaten Hope by bolting to an early 14-0 lead and holding on for dear life. Hope tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation but had to settle for a field goal in the first overtime. Facing fourth-and-goal from the 2, Alma went for the win and got it thanks to a touchdown pass from Carter St. John to Miles Haggart.

About 600 miles south in Maryville, Tennessee, Maryville looked as if it would cruise over NAIA’s Pikeville in front of 5,576. The Scots led 27-10 late in the first half, but a 20-0 run put the visitors on top. No worries! Maryville drove 86 yards in 44 seconds, and Bryson Rollins found Jalen McCullough with 35 seconds left to save the day.


For the second straight week, Rutgers enticed a rock-fight connoisseur into a track meet of sorts — Iowa last week, Minnesota this week — but couldn’t actually win it. A 4-yard Drake Lindsay-to-Javon Tracy touchdown gave the Gophers the lead with 3:19 left, but Rutgers worked the ball into field goal range until a devastating, 15-yard Rushawn Lawrence sack of Athan Kaliakmanis forced Dane Pizzaro to attempt a 56-yarder. He missed.


Hell yeah, Hokies. After starting 2025 so dismally that head coach Brent Pry was fired after just three games, Tech has won two straight. Terion Stewart enjoyed a breakout performance with 174 rushing yards, Kyron Drones threw two touchdown passes and Christian Ellis broke up a fourth-and-1 pass with 42 seconds left to clinch the win.


22. NAIA: No. 15 Dordt 21, No. 14 Northwestern (Iowa) 20

Dordt entered Week 5 as NAIA’s No. 1 team, per SP+, and the Defenders rallied to score a big road win over the 2022 national champs. After trailing 17-0 late in the second quarter, they took their first lead with just 13 seconds left, when Connor Dodd capped a 93-yard drive with a 4-yard TD catch.


This was easily UCLA’s best chance at avoiding a winless 2025 season, but as with their loss to UNLV, they spotted their hosts a big early lead and couldn’t quite catch up. They cut a 17-0 deficit to 17-14 with six minutes left, but two last-ditch drives went nowhere.


Pitt made this one as messy and chaotic as Pat Narduzzi could have hoped and bolted to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, but the Panthers couldn’t hold on. Louisville remained unbeaten by pitching a second-half shutout; the Cardinals took their first lead with 7:03 remaining, and their third interception of the day, with four seconds left, closed things out.


25. Div. II: No. 17 Central Washington 91, Western New Mexico 31

I had to end this list with one of the most confounding box scores I’ve ever seen.

Total yards: CWU 499, WNMU 468
First downs: WNMU 24, CWU 20
Red zone trips: CWU 6, WNMU 4
Touchdowns: CWU 13, WNMU 4

What??

CWU played an almost perfect first quarter, gaining 253 yards in 14 snaps and going up 35-0. The Wildcats then proceeded to score touchdowns on a kickoff return, another kickoff return two minutes later and a third-quarter pick-six. And because of turnovers and special teams, they had touchdown drives of 5, 40, 44 and 47 yards. And they managed to score nearly 100 points with less than 500 yards. College football is only ever allowed to make so much sense.


Who won the Heisman this week?

I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:

1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (26-for-34 passing for 321 yards, 5 TDs and an INT, plus 83 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Utah State).

2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (20-for-26 passing for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 36 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against USC).

3. CJ Carr, Notre Dame (22-for-30 passing for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns against Arkansas).

4. Dante Moore, Oregon (29-for-39 passing for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 35 non-sack rushing yards against Penn State).

5. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24-for-38 passing for 276 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Georgia).

6. Prince Dorbah, Arizona State (4 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery against TCU).

7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (23-for-39 passing for 314 yards, a TD and an INT, plus 71 non-sack rushing yards against LSU).

8. Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati (29-for-43 passing for 388 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards against Kansas).

9. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (19-for-28 passing for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 58 non-sack rushing yards against Cincinnati).

10. Xavier Atkins, Auburn (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, a sack, a forced fumble and a 73-yard interception return against Texas A&M).

I wrote about awesome running backs last week, but Week 5 belonged to quarterbacks. CJ Carr enjoyed by far the best performance of his career, and the winners of the two huge night games, Bama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore, both shined. But I gave the top two spots to a couple of veteran overachievers. Luke Altmyer completed four passes of 25-plus yards, all in the second half, and produced a 97.5 Total QBR rating. Diego Pavia, meanwhile, remains Diego Pavia: absurdly efficient via run and pass. He produced 404 total yards and six touchdowns, and if he wasn’t already in the Heisman discussion, he should be now.

Honorable mention:

Micah Alejado, Hawaii (35-for-47 passing for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns against Air Force).

Raleek Brown, Arizona State (21 carries for 134 yards, plus 50 receiving yards against TCU).

Greg Desrosiers Jr., Memphis (19 carries for 204 yards and 3 touchdowns against FAU).

Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (16 carries for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 78 receiving yards and a touchdown against South Alabama).

Emmanuel Henderson, Kansas (5 catches for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cincinnati).

Trent Hendrick, JMU (11 tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Georgia Southern).

Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (24-for-35 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Oklahoma State)

Nate Sheppard, Duke (15 carries for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 33 receiving yards against Syracuse).

Liam Szarka, Air Force (10-for-12 passing for 278 yards, 3 TDs and an INT, plus 152 non-sack rushing yards against Hawaii).

Through five weeks, here are your points leaders:

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (21 points)

2T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15 points)

2T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15 points)

4. Jayden Maiava, USC (12 points)

5T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)

5T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10 points)

5T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10 points)

5T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)

9T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (nine points)

9T. Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)

9T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (nine points)

9T. Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)

9T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (nine points)

We’re seeing the beginnings of a sync-up between the points race and the betting odds. Obviously, Taylen Green (tied for second in the points race) isn’t a serious Heisman candidate, but points leader Ty Simpson is up to No. 3 in the betting odds, and Mendoza, Pavia, Stockton and Chambliss are in the top 10 of both the points and the odds. Still, it’s incredible how little has been settled as we approach the midway point of the season.

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Arkansas fires Pittman, names Petrino interim

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Arkansas fires Pittman, names Petrino interim

Arkansas fired Sam Pittman on Sunday, parting ways with the popular and folksy coach who couldn’t get the Razorbacks into the upper echelon of the SEC with a middling overall record of 32-34.

Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, a former head coach at Arkansas before he left in scandal, was appointed interim head coach for the remainder of the season.

“I want to thank coach Pittman for his service and dedication to the University of Arkansas throughout his time as head coach,” athletic director Hunter Yurachek said in a statement. “From Day 1, you could tell how much this opportunity meant to him. At this time, however, I feel a change is necessary to put our student-athletes and program in the best position to be successful. The goal for our football program is to be highly competitive within the Southeastern Conference and compete for a national championship.”

Because Pittman’s overall record since 2021 was above .500 (29-27), per his contract Arkansas owes him a buyout of nearly $9.8 million.

Pittman was the fourth power conference coach fired this season — all in the final two weeks of September — following Brent Pry at Virginia Tech, DeShaun Foster at UCLA and Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State.

The move at Arkansas came one day after the Razorbacks fell to 2-3 with a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame. The Hogs have this week off before a game at Tennessee on Oct. 11.

Pittman, 63, was named the Razorbacks’ 34th head coach in December 2019.

“As we move forward in the process of finding our next head coach, I am certain we will be able to provide the necessary resources to our staff and team to reach our goals. We will begin a national search for our next head coach immediately and that search will include Coach Petrino, who has expressed his desire to be a candidate for the full-time job,” Yurachek said.

Petrino, 64, was rehired by Arkansas in November 2023 after serving in a number of jobs. In four years leading the Razorbacks, Petrino went 34-17, including consecutive double-digit-victory seasons in 2010 and 2011.

He had the Razorbacks rolling when in April 2012 he was involved in a single-vehicle motorcycle crash that left him with four broken ribs. At first, he said he was riding alone, but a police report revealed a woman was riding with him. The woman turned out to be a former Arkansas athlete who was in a romantic relationship with the married Petrino. The coach had given her a job in the football program and a $20,000 gift.

He was fired by then-athletic director Jeff Long for misleading his bosses about what happened with the accident and his relationship with the football staffer.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Ole Miss soars to No. 4 in poll; Ducks new No. 2

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Ole Miss soars to No. 4 in poll; Ducks new No. 2

Oregon moved up to No. 2 in the Associated Press college football poll Sunday, while Ole Miss jumped nine rungs to No. 4 for its highest ranking since 2015 in the wake of a volatile weekend in which four top-10 teams lost.

Alabama also jumped back into the top 10, and Virginia entered the Top 25 for the first time in six years.

Ohio State, which won at Washington, remains No. 1 for the fifth straight week. The Buckeyes received 46 first-place votes, six fewer than a week ago, and their 30-point lead over Oregon is the closest margin between the top two teams since the preseason poll in mid-August.

Oregon’s two-overtime win at Penn State earned 16 first-place votes — 15 more than last week — and gave the Ducks their highest ranking since they were No. 1 for two months last year.

Miami, which had an open date, slipped one spot to No. 3 and was followed by Ole Miss and idle Oklahoma. The No. 4 Rebels were rewarded by voters for beating LSU and have their highest ranking since they were No. 3 in late September 2015.

Ole Miss’ nine-spot rise into the top five was the biggest by any team since the Rebels jumped 12 spots to No. 3 for beating Alabama in 2015.

LSU fell to No. 13, swapping places with Ole Miss.

Texas A&M, Penn State, Indiana, Texas and Alabama round out the top 10.

Indiana has been the fastest riser over the past month, moving up 15 rungs since Week 1. Over that span, Oklahoma and Texas A&M have each risen 13 spots.

Alabama, which had been out of the top 10 since losing its opener against Florida State by two touchdowns, has won three straight after beating Georgia for the 10th time in 11 meetings and ending the Bulldogs’ 33-game home win streak. No. 12 Georgia has its lowest ranking since it was No. 12 on Dec. 6, 2020. It’s just the second poll the Bulldogs have been out of the top 10 since 2021.

The losses by Penn State, LSU and Georgia marked the first time since 2016 that three top-five teams lost the same week in the regular season.

Week 5 marked the second time this season that four top-10 teams lost. It also happened in Week 1, but three of the four top-10 teams had to lose that week because there were three top-10 matchups.

Florida State’s loss at Virginia was the latest development in an up-and-down season for the Seminoles. The Seminoles went from unranked to No. 14 for beating Alabama, were in the top 10 for three weeks and plunged 10 spots to No. 18 this week.

No. 24 Virginia, not listed on any ballots in the previous poll, was rewarded for beating its highest-ranked opponent since then-No. 4 Florida State in 2005. The Cavaliers are 4-1 for a second straight season for the first time since 2003-04.

No. 25 Arizona State‘s come-from-behind victory over then-No. 24 TCU returned the Sun Devils to the Top 25 after a three-week absence. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, dropped out, as did USC (21st).

CONFERENCE CALL

SEC (10): Nos. 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 19
Big Ten (6): Nos. 1, 2, 7, 8, 20, 22
Big 12 (4): Nos. 11, 14, 23, 25
ACC (4): Nos. 3, 17, 18, 24
Independent (1): No. 21

RANKED VS. RANKED

Miami at Florida State: It will be the 27th time the Hurricanes and Seminoles face off as ranked teams. Miami is 15-11 in those games, but Florida State has won the past five such contests, the last of which came in 2016.

Vanderbilt at Alabama: The Crimson Tide will be looking for payback. Vanderbilt’s 40-35 win as a 23-point underdog last season marked the Commodores’ first over a No. 1 team and was widely regarded as the 2024 upset of the year.

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